扈世民｜中信证券 物流和出行服务首席分析师 S1010519040004 物流｜关税影响探讨（二）：优选内需政策受益的航空、物流和集运龙头 应对外部冲击，政策层近期高度重视"做大做强国内大循环"，采取以旧换新补贴扩 容、特定群体补贴、类"消费券"政策等政策组合提振内需，关注受益内需政策加码的 航空、物流和区域集运龙头。1）航空：面对显著上升的采购成本，我们预计国内各 航司将暂停波音飞机的引进计划，假设从4月9日起国内停止引进波音飞机但保持退出 计 划 ， 则 我 们 测 算 2025/2026 年 三 大 航 的 机 队 增 速 或 降 低 1.5pcts/2.1pcts 至 2.9%/2.9%。若假设延迟波音的退出计划叠加航材采购成本上升，我们预计2025年国 内三大航飞机引进增速或降至1%~2%。关税反制进一步限制航空业供给，票价拐点渐 近，国际油价下跌释放利润空间，关注五一前航空布局机会。2）物流：以旧换新国 补扩容及潜在的消费刺激政策有望传导至需求端，选取品类相关度高的顺周期龙头。 3）区域集运：复盘历史，积极的财政政策有望推动大宗商品需求的修复，2024年内 贸行业CR3接近80%，预计需求变化将传 ...

总之，市场整体氛围较好，题材轮动加速，短线情绪局部强势，黄金、消费、 AI 及机器人成为今日最强主线，虽然权重板块拖累指数表现，但 是题材热度说明游资量化在干活，市场的赚钱效应更能带动散户良性互动，当然题材持续性还得维持更高的成交量和市场活跃度。 | 黄金概念 | | | 工业软件 | 可燃冰 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | +1.44% | | +4.05% | | | +3.77% | -1.49亿 | | 33.647 | | | 9.19亿 | | | POE胶膜 | 基引概念 | 天然气 | 汽车芯片 | 生物质能 | | +1.43% | +1.43% | +1.42% | +1.42% | +1.42% | | 1.37亿 | -4178.48万 | | 2.274Z | 4112.51万 | | | | -1.23 Z | | | | 然図获展 | 地熱能 | 旅游概念 | SGDR | 盐湖提锂 | | +1.35% | +1.34% | +1.34% | +1.33% | +1.32% | | -1.06亿 | -5947.34万 | ...

Market Overview - The A-share market experienced a significant rise, with the Shanghai Composite Index approaching 3300 points and major indices like the Shenzhen Component and ChiNext Index rising over 1% [1] - The total trading volume in the A-share market exceeded 1 trillion yuan, marking a return to above 10 billion yuan [1] Sector Performance - Over 4300 stocks in the market showed gains, with notable increases in the automotive industry, paper sector, pharmaceutical sector, gold concept stocks, large aircraft concept, and humanoid robot concept [2][3][7][10] - Gold concept stocks surged, with several stocks reaching their daily limit, and the price of spot gold exceeded $3390 per ounce, setting a new historical high [3][4] Gold Sector Insights - The demand for gold is driven by geopolitical uncertainties and a decline in trust towards dollar assets, leading to increased net purchases of gold by global central banks [5][6] - Central banks are projected to purchase over 1000 tons of gold annually from 2022 to 2024, contributing to a bullish outlook for gold prices [5][6] Large Aircraft Sector Insights - The large aircraft concept saw strong performance, with stocks like Tongyi Aerospace rising over 16% [7] - The domestic airlines are currently facing delays in receiving Boeing aircraft due to "reciprocal tariffs," prompting interest in Chinese commercial aircraft in Southeast Asia [9] Humanoid Robot Sector Insights - The humanoid robot concept gained traction, with stocks like Zhenyu Technology and Wanda Bearings seeing significant increases [10][12] - The recent marathon event in Beijing showcased humanoid robots, enhancing the visibility and potential of this sector [10][12]

Market Overview - The A-share market experienced a significant rise, with the Shanghai Composite Index approaching 3300 points and major indices like the Shenzhen Component and ChiNext Index rising over 1% [1][2] - The total trading volume in the A-share market exceeded 1 trillion yuan, increasing by over 120 billion yuan compared to the previous day [1][2] Sector Performance - The automotive industry saw substantial gains, with stocks like Redick rising over 11% and several others hitting the daily limit [2] - The paper sector also performed well, with multiple stocks reaching their daily limit [2] - The pharmaceutical sector experienced an upward trend, with companies like Shutaishen and Dizhe Pharmaceutical hitting the daily limit [2] - Gold-related stocks surged, with companies such as Sichuan Gold and Chifeng Gold reaching their daily limit [3][5] - The large aircraft concept stocks saw a strong rally, with Tongyi Aerospace rising over 16% and several others hitting the daily limit [10] - The humanoid robot sector became active again, with stocks like Zhenyu Technology rising over 13% [14] Gold Market Insights - Spot gold prices broke through $3390 per ounce, reaching a historical high, while the main gold futures contract in Shanghai rose over 2% [7] - The demand for gold is driven by geopolitical uncertainties and a decline in trust towards dollar assets, leading to increased net purchases by global central banks [7] - Central banks are expected to purchase over 1000 tons of gold annually from 2022 to 2024, contributing to a bullish outlook for gold prices [7][8] Large Aircraft Sector Developments - A Boeing 737 Max aircraft is set to be delivered from Zhoushan Boeing Completion Center to Seattle, amidst a pause in domestic airlines accepting Boeing aircraft due to "reciprocal tariffs" [12] - The potential market for domestic large aircraft in Southeast Asia is growing, as countries like Vietnam and Malaysia express interest in introducing and operating Chinese commercial aircraft [12] Humanoid Robot Sector Developments - A marathon event featuring humanoid robots showcased advancements in their performance and reliability, indicating a growing market for AI and robotics [16] - Investment opportunities in the AI and robotics sector are expanding, particularly in areas like exoskeleton robots and sensors, which are expected to commercialize faster than humanoid robots [16]

Core Viewpoint - The military industry is entering a new cycle characterized by a transition from "volume and price increase" to "volume increase and price stability," and from "platform expansion" to "system building and short board supplementation," indicating the start of a second structural cycle recovery [1] Industry Growth Characteristics - Future growth in the military industry will exhibit structural characteristics, with stable growth in traditional sectors and new domains expected to outperform the industry average [1] Investment Recommendations - Three main investment lines are suggested: 1. **Traditional Military Sector**: Focus on industries with expected order recovery and performance support, particularly in the aerospace, shipbuilding, and aviation sectors [1] 2. **New Domains and New Qualities**: - In new warfare, attention should be on industries characterized by low cost, intelligence, and systematization, including low-cost precision-guided munitions, unmanned systems, and next-generation intelligent combat bases - For new productive forces, focus on industries with broad application market space, rapid growth, and low domestic production rates, mainly in commercial aerospace, low-altitude economy, and large aircraft - In new technologies, attention should be on MEMS devices, additive manufacturing, and ceramic matrix composites [1] 3. **Reform and Overseas Expansion**: Focus on companies with expected asset integration and competitiveness in the military trade market [1]

以下文章来源于泉果视点 ，作者泉果无限对话 泉果视点 . 泉果基金管理有限公司官方订阅号，第一时间分享泉果基金动态。以专业投研+专业服务，与您相伴在长期投资的道路上。 近日，中泰国际首席经济学家李迅雷做客【泉果无限对话】，从资本市场、宏观经济、产业政策、企业战略等方面，追本溯 源，剖析当下经济问题的症结所在，并提出了短期维度的预测和长期维度的思考。 "我是做宏观研究的，我30年前就做宏观研究，和现在差不多，一直没有转型。" 李迅雷从事宏观经济、金融与资本市场研究30多年，先后编著、翻译经济及证券类书籍多部，曾多次参加总理座谈会、博鳌 论坛等高级别会议。 李迅雷一贯强调基于事实、深入研究后的谨慎判断，和对市场"共识"的再思考。 ■ 谈及资本市场，他表示："股市是经济的晴雨表，准确地说，它是经济增长质量的晴雨表。 股市背后是上市公司，这些公 司的体量有多大，盈利能力有多强、持续增长时间有多久，决定了股市的表现。 我们能否在科技创新方面取得突破，科技类 企业的盈利是否能提高，进而影响了整个A股市场的表现。" ■ 对于扩大消费，他说："'狗马最难，鬼魅最易'。 消费、出口的数据改善不改变有效需求不足的长期问题，对于提 ...

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