证券研究报告 | 公司深度 gszqdatemark 2025 06 19 年 月 日 海澜之家（600398.SH） 男装赛道佼佼者，业务突围打造零售平台 公司是大众服饰品牌龙头之一，男装主业规模稳健、优势突出，品牌零售管理新 业务（京东奥莱+FCC）未来增速较快、成长空间广阔。我们在本篇报告中梳理过 去公司基本面变化及核心竞争力，并对未来盈利表现及业务趋势做出判断： 男装主业稳扎稳打，产品积极求变，牢占龙头位置。1）主品牌：定位于大众男装， 产品兼具品质与性价比。过去几年内男装行业竞争格局有所优化，公司凭借类直 营的管理模式，在 2014~2019 年以较快的速度完成了品牌及渠道规模的扩张， 2024 年末主品牌线下门店已达近 6000 家，未来门店质量+电商利润率稳步提升 有望带动主品牌业绩稳健成长。我们综合估计 2025~2027 年 HLA 品牌收入分别 158.0/161.2/165.3 亿元，同比分别 +3%/+2%/+3% ，毛利率预 计分别为 47.5%/47.8%/48.1%。2）团购系列：公司合作优质大客户并积极主动获取订单， 我们估计 2025~2027 年团购定制系列收入分别为 24 ...

Core Viewpoint - Jinan is focusing on upgrading industrial product supply to boost consumer demand through three main strategies: enhancing digital integration, improving supply-demand matching, and optimizing brand ecosystems [1][2][3] Group 1: Digital Integration - Jinan's Industrial and Information Technology Bureau is implementing actions for digital transformation in manufacturing, including initiatives like "AI Empowering Qiancheng" and plans to establish over 30 new 5G factories and 2 "industrial brains" this year [2] - The city is promoting the development and application of new products and scenarios in areas such as autonomous driving and robotics, aiming to create high-growth consumption sectors [2] Group 2: Supply-Demand Matching - Jinan is conducting "hundred sessions for ten thousand enterprises" supply-demand matching activities, having organized 183 events to facilitate cooperation among industry chain enterprises [5] - An online supply-demand matching service platform has been established, with 2,500 registered companies and nearly 10,000 products listed [5] Group 3: Brand Optimization - The city is implementing a "three products" initiative to enhance variety, quality, and branding of consumer goods, with successful selections of local products for national recognition [3] - Jinan is fostering regional public brands like "Qiancheng Good Products" to strengthen the consumer goods matrix and support high-quality economic growth [3] Group 4: Industrial Foundation - Jinan is actively promoting industrial equipment upgrades and has reported 770 enterprises implementing 1,004 industrial technology transformation projects [5] - The automotive sector, particularly in new energy vehicles, has seen significant growth, with a 39.5% year-on-year increase in the automotive manufacturing industry from January to April [5]

Group 1 - The current Chinese consumer market is experiencing a transformation characterized by "pressure on total volume and structural differentiation," with traditional consumption upgrading and emerging sectors expanding rapidly [2][10] - The emotional characteristics of consumers are becoming more pronounced, with a tendency to seek psychological compensation and cultural resonance through consumption [2][10] - The transformation path of Chinese consumption is highly similar to Japan's "fourth consumption era," which began around 2005, driven by economic, demographic, and psychological factors [2][10] Group 2 - Japan's "fourth consumption era" is marked by a shift from ownership to shared and experiential consumption, emphasizing individual value realization and social connections [3][11] - The transition in Japan is driven by three structural variables: long-term economic stagnation, demographic changes, and shifts in consumer psychology [19][22] - The consumption focus in Japan has shifted from material goods to services and experiences, leading to a restructuring of the industrial landscape [28][30] Group 3 - The concept of Delta G (marginal change in profit growth) is proposed as a key indicator for identifying structural opportunities in the consumer sector [4][44] - The report identifies three investment themes based on Delta G: sectors with improving economic forecasts, those with significant upward revisions in profit predictions, and those with relatively small downward adjustments [4][44] - Specific sectors highlighted for potential investment include personal care products, food processing, and internet e-commerce, among others [4][44][50] Group 4 - The report emphasizes the importance of cultural identity and local values in shaping consumer behavior, suggesting that brands should leverage local cultural narratives to enhance differentiation [43][40] - The rise of the "silver economy" and "single economy" in Japan provides insights for China to develop related industries, such as elder care services and single-person living solutions [39][40] - Sustainable consumption is becoming a strategic necessity for long-term business success, with companies encouraged to integrate environmental considerations throughout the product lifecycle [40][41]

Macro and Strategy Research - In May, social financing increased by over 200 billion yuan year-on-year, with government bond financing being a major support, also increasing by over 200 billion yuan year-on-year [2] - Corporate short-term loans showed significant year-on-year growth, while medium and long-term loans decreased due to insufficient demand, particularly in a competitive internal environment [2] - M1 year-on-year growth rate rebounded in May, driven by increased fiscal spending and a decrease in the base from the previous year [3] Fund Research - The market saw mixed performance among major indices, with 13 out of 31 industries rising; the top five performing industries included non-ferrous metals and oil and petrochemicals [4] - The net inflow of funds was primarily in the technology and consumer sectors, while active equity fund positions decreased to 72.78%, down by 3.57 percentage points [5] - The ETF market experienced a net outflow of 29.50 billion yuan, with significant outflows from stock ETFs, indicating a shift towards bond ETFs due to risk aversion [5] Industry Research - The潮玩 (trendy toys) sector remains highly popular, with the blind box market expected to exceed 58 billion yuan by 2025, reflecting a compound annual growth rate of 28% from 2020 to 2025 [7][10] - The light industry manufacturing sector underperformed compared to the CSI 300 index, while the textile and apparel sector outperformed it by 0.31 percentage points [7] - The Guangzhou government has proposed measures to boost consumption, which may positively impact the home improvement and home furnishing sectors [10]

Core Insights - The report emphasizes the acceleration of domestic demand recovery as a key investment theme for 2025, highlighting emerging growth directions in the textile and apparel industry [10][11] - The textile and apparel sector outperformed the market recently, with the SW textile and apparel index rising by 0.1% from June 9 to June 13, 2025, surpassing the SW All A index by 0.5 percentage points [4][10] - The report identifies specific companies and sectors within the textile and apparel industry that are expected to benefit from the recovery, including outdoor sports brands and home textiles [10][11] Industry Performance - The textile and apparel sector showed a mixed performance, with the SW apparel and home textiles index declining by 1.0% and the SW textile manufacturing index down by 1.4%, both underperforming the SW All A index [4][10] - Recent industry data indicates that from January to April 2025, the total retail sales of clothing, shoes, hats, and knitted textiles reached 493.9 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 3.1% [21][24] - In terms of exports, from January to May 2025, China exported textiles and apparel worth 116.67 billion USD, a year-on-year increase of 1.0%, with textile yarns, fabrics, and products accounting for 58.48 billion USD, up 2.5% [27][28] Company Recommendations - The report recommends several companies for investment, including Anta Sports, Bosideng, and 361 for outdoor sports, as well as home textile brands like Luolai Life and Mercury Home Textiles [10][11] - Notable mentions include Nobon Co., which is highlighted for its growth potential in the personal care and home cleaning sectors, and Zhejiang Natural, which is recommended for its outdoor equipment manufacturing [10][11] - The report suggests that large OEMs like Huayi and Shenzhou have already established independent dual-circulation production layouts, making them less susceptible to tariff impacts and positioning them for growth [9][10] Market Dynamics - The report notes that the recent recovery in textile exports is primarily due to the resumption of previously paused orders rather than a significant increase in new orders, indicating a structural rather than a broad-based recovery [9][10] - The report highlights the importance of domestic consumption recovery as a critical driver for the textile and apparel sector in 2025, with various local governments implementing measures to stimulate consumer spending [10][11] - The report also discusses the impact of international trade dynamics, particularly the ongoing challenges posed by unilateral tariffs from the U.S. and the recent legal rulings affecting these tariffs [8][9]

Core Points - The stock price of Jiaxin Silk (002404) closed at 6.2 yuan on June 13, 2025, down 0.96% from 6.26 yuan the previous week [1] - The company's total market capitalization is 3.472 billion yuan, ranking 28th out of 60 in the apparel and home textile sector and 3862nd out of 5150 in the A-share market [1] Company Announcements - Jiaxin Silk announced a guarantee of up to 700 million yuan for several subsidiaries and associated companies, effective from the date of approval at the 2024 annual general meeting until the 2025 annual general meeting [1] - The company signed a maximum guarantee contract with CITIC Bank Jiaxing Branch for 150 million yuan and with Shanghai Bank Hangzhou Branch for 50 million yuan, both for Zhejiang Jincan Network Supply Chain Management Co., Ltd. [2] - As of the announcement date, the total external guarantee limit for the company and its subsidiaries is 700 million yuan, with a total balance of 51.57 million yuan, accounting for 2.59% of the latest audited net assets attributable to the parent company [2]

Group 1 - The core stock price of Zhongwang Fabric (605003) closed at 22.07 yuan on June 13, 2025, representing an 11.13% increase from the previous week's closing price of 19.86 yuan [1] - The stock reached a nearly one-year high of 22.44 yuan during intraday trading on June 13, 2025, with a low of 19.8 yuan on June 9, 2025 [1] - The current total market capitalization of Zhongwang Fabric is 2.428 billion yuan, ranking 42nd out of 60 in the home textile sector and 4642nd out of 5150 in the A-share market [1] Group 2 - The company announced a cash dividend of 0.41 yuan per share, with the record date set for June 18, 2025 [1] - The profit distribution plan was approved at the annual general meeting on May 15, 2025, based on a total share capital of 110 million shares, resulting in a total cash dividend payout of 45.1 million yuan [1] - For individual shareholders holding unrestricted A-shares for more than one year, the dividend income is exempt from personal income tax; for those holding for one year or less, the company will not withhold personal income tax [1]

Core Viewpoint - Henghui Security (300952) experienced a decline in stock price, closing at 28.72 yuan, down 2.11% from the previous week, with a market capitalization of 4.603 billion yuan as of June 13, 2025 [1] Shareholder Changes - As of June 10, 2025, the number of shareholders increased to 14,100, up by 235, or 1.69%, since May 20, 2025 [4] - The average number of shares held per shareholder decreased from 11,700 to 11,400, with an average holding value of 342,800 yuan [1][4] Company Announcements - On June 11, 2025, the company held its 14th meeting of the third board of directors, where two resolutions were passed: 1. The repurchase price for the first grant of restricted stock under the 2023 incentive plan was adjusted to 9.0106 yuan per share due to the implementation of the 2024 profit distribution plan [1][2] 2. The company will provide guarantees for its wholly-owned subsidiary, Hengyue Safety Protection Products (Nantong) Co., Ltd., which is applying for a short-term credit limit of up to 40 million yuan from China Construction Bank and 20 million yuan from Bank of China [1][2] Financial Overview of Subsidiary - Hengyue Safety Protection Products, established on April 15, 2022, has total assets of approximately 736.55 million yuan, total liabilities of about 454.24 million yuan, and net assets of around 282.31 million yuan as of March 31, 2025, resulting in a debt-to-asset ratio of 61.67% [2] - The total amount of guarantees provided by the company and its subsidiaries is 460 million yuan, accounting for 37.84% of the audited net assets as of the end of 2024 [2]

Core Viewpoint - Zhejiang Semir Garment Co., Ltd. has announced the expected new daily related transactions for the year 2025, which are aimed at supporting the company's business development needs and are in compliance with relevant regulations and company bylaws [1][4]. Group 1: Daily Related Transactions Overview - The company plans to engage in daily related transactions with affiliated companies, including Shanghai Xiaohua Man Information Technology Co., Ltd., with a total expected amount not exceeding RMB 15 million [1][2]. - The board meeting held on June 11, 2025, approved the proposal with 7 votes in favor, 0 against, and 2 abstentions [1]. Group 2: Transaction Categories and Amounts - The expected transaction amounts include RMB 10 million for purchases from Shanghai Xiaohua Man Information Technology Co., Ltd. and RMB 5 million for purchases from Zhejiang Helimeng Home Textile Technology Co., Ltd., totaling RMB 15 million [1][2]. - The previous year's transaction amount was RMB 9.38 million, indicating an increase in the expected transaction amount for 2025 [1]. Group 3: Related Parties and Relationships - Zhejiang Helimeng Home Textile Technology Co., Ltd. is controlled by Semir Group Co., Ltd., which holds 12.47% of the company's shares, establishing a related party relationship [2][4]. - Shanghai Xiaohua Man Information Technology Co., Ltd. is also a related party, with Semir Group holding 72% of its shares [2][4]. Group 4: Purpose and Impact of Related Transactions - The related transactions are conducted on fair and open terms, based on market pricing, and are expected to positively impact the company's financial status and operational results [4]. - The transactions are part of the company's daily operations and are not expected to harm the interests of the company or its shareholders [4]. Group 5: Independent Directors' Opinions - The independent directors unanimously approved the proposal for the expected daily related transactions, stating that they align with the company's actual development needs and are priced fairly according to market principles [4].

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Recommended" [5] Core Views - Lululemon reported Q1 2025 revenue of $2.371 billion, a 7% year-on-year increase, driven mainly by international business, while net profit decreased by 2.13% to $315 million [3][15] - The company maintains its FY25 revenue guidance of $11.15-11.3 billion, expecting a growth of 5%-7%, and has lowered its diluted EPS guidance to $14.58-14.78 from the previous $14.95-15.15 due to tariff fluctuations impacting the retail environment [3][15] - The report highlights a significant increase in inventory, up 23% to $1.7 billion, and anticipates a decline in gross margin by approximately 2 percentage points in Q2 due to rising rent and depreciation costs, increased tariff rates, and greater discounting [3][15] Summary by Sections 1. Weekly Insights - Lululemon's Q1 2025 performance shows a mixed picture with revenue growth primarily from international markets, particularly a 22% increase in mainland China, although growth rates are slowing [3][15] - The company plans to open approximately 200 stores in China, currently operating 154 [3][15] 2. Market Performance - The textile and apparel sector's performance was below the Shanghai Composite Index, with a 0.42% increase compared to a 1.13% rise in the index [17] - The report notes that the outdoor and sports segments performed well, while the textile machinery and home textile sectors lagged [17] 3. Material Data Tracking - As of June 6, 2025, the China cotton price index was 14,561 RMB/ton, showing a slight decrease of 1.01% year-to-date, while the medium import cotton price index increased by 2.22% [26] - The USDA forecasts a 2.7% year-on-year decline in global cotton production for the 2025/2026 season [36] 4. Export Data - From January to April 2025, textile and apparel exports totaled $90.472 billion, a 2.99% increase year-on-year, with textile exports rising by 8.44% while apparel exports fell by 2.06% [39][40] 5. Consumer Data - In March 2025, sales on Douyin for sports categories saw significant growth, with sports bags, shoes, and apparel increasing by 136.87%, 61.69%, and 63.72% respectively [50] - However, sales on Taobao and Tmall in April 2025 showed negative growth across various categories, indicating a challenging retail environment [9][50]