乖 灰安期货 永安合成橡胶早报 研究中心能化团队 2025/6/18 | | | 指标 | 5/16 | 6/10 | 6/13 | 6/16 | 6/17 | 日度变化 | 周度变化 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 主力合约收盘价 | 12160 | 11230 | 11390 | 11565 | 11485 | -80 | ટર્ટ | | | | | | | | | | | -5527 | | | | 主力合约持仓量 | 20487 | 21708 | 19801 | 18319 | 16181 | -2138 | | | | STET | 主力合约成交量 | 134239 | 104597 | 206269 | 159100 | 111310 | -47790 | 6713 | | | | 仓単数量 | 11340 | 11570 | 12520 | 12520 | 12290 | -230 | 720 | | | | 虚实比 | 9.03 | 9.38 | 7.91 | 7.32 | 6.58 ...

Core Viewpoint - The strategic cooperation memorandum signed between Transfar Zhilian and PETRONAS aims to enhance the global synthetic rubber industry chain competitiveness through resource integration, market expansion, and technological collaboration [2][3]. Group 1: Strategic Cooperation - Transfar Zhilian and PETRONAS will jointly establish production facilities in China and Malaysia to produce and sell polybutadiene rubber, leveraging PETRONAS's extensive energy distribution network across over 120 countries [2]. - The partnership is expected to create synergies by combining PETRONAS's raw material advantages in the petrochemical sector with Transfar Zhilian's rubber production capabilities, potentially lowering procurement costs and ensuring stable supply [3]. Group 2: Company Background - Transfar Zhilian's subsidiary, Zhejiang Transfar Synthetic Materials Co., is a leading player in the new materials sector in China, with an annual production capacity of 270,000 tons for synthetic rubber [3]. - The company has developed a proprietary nickel/neodymium-based continuous preparation process for butadiene rubber, recognized as a domestic innovation, and holds 30 global patents, including European patents [3]. Group 3: Industry Implications - The collaboration signifies a robust integration of the "technology research and development - raw material supply - production manufacturing - global distribution" industry chain, reflecting Transfar Zhilian's commitment to its globalization strategy [4]. - The dual-driven model of "technology going global + capacity going global" is expected to enhance the efficient collaboration between domestic and international markets and resources [4].

Group 1 - Synthetic rubber futures experienced a rapid increase, reaching a peak of 11,560.0 yuan, with a current price of 11,455.0 yuan, reflecting a rise of 2.19% [1] - New Lake Futures indicated that the fundamentals of synthetic rubber are generally weak, with high production, weak demand, and difficulty in inventory reduction leading to thin profits [1] - The price of synthetic rubber is closely related to the raw material butadiene, which is currently in a maintenance season, making significant recovery in supply unlikely [1] Group 2 - Ruida Futures forecasted that the BR2508 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 10,700 to 11,300 yuan in the short term [2] - The supply of butadiene is relatively sufficient, which weakens the cost support for the production of styrene-butadiene rubber [2] - Domestic tire manufacturers' capacity utilization rates have continued to decline, and while some companies are resuming operations, overall orders remain weak, leading to slow inventory reduction [2]

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Title: Yong'an Synthetic Rubber Morning Report [2] - Report Date: June 9, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Energy and Chemicals Team of the Research Center [2] Group 2: BR (Butadiene Rubber) Analysis Price and Trading Volume - The closing price of the BR main contract on June 6 was 11,300, a daily increase of 340 and a weekly increase of 155 [3]. - The trading volume of the BR main contract on June 6 was 159,507, a daily increase of 59,848 and a weekly increase of 8,184 [3]. - The open interest of the BR main contract on June 6 was 24,880, a daily decrease of 1,396 [3]. Basis and Spread - The basis of cis - butadiene rubber on June 6 was 300, a daily decrease of 140 and a weekly decrease of 55 [3]. - The 6 - 7 month spread of BR on June 6 was 10, a daily decrease of 100 and a weekly increase of 40 [3]. - The 7 - 8 month spread of BR on June 6 was 145, a daily increase of 20 and a weekly decrease of 5 [3]. Spot and Market Prices - The Shandong market price of BR on June 6 was 11,600, a daily increase of 200 and a weekly increase of 100 [3]. - The Chuanhua market price of BR on June 6 was 11,450, a daily increase of 50 [3]. - The Qilu Petrochemical ex - factory price of BR on June 6 was 11,600, a daily increase of 200 and a weekly decrease of 100 [3]. Processing and Profitability - The spot processing profit of BR on June 6 was - 545, a daily decrease of 157 and a weekly increase of 49 [3]. - The on - screen processing profit of BR on June 6 was - 845, a daily decrease of 17 and a weekly increase of 104 [3]. - The import profit of BR on June 6 was - 82,972, a daily decrease of 1,422 and a weekly increase of 1,042 [3]. - The export profit of BR on June 6 was 199, a daily decrease of 174 and a weekly decrease of 281 [3] Group 3: BD (Butadiene) Analysis Price and Market - The Shandong market price of BD on June 6 was 9,750, a daily increase of 350 [3]. - The Jiangsu market price of BD on June 6 was 9,450, a daily increase of 100 and a weekly decrease of 100 [3]. - The Yangzi Petrochemical ex - factory price of BD on June 6 was 9,500, with no daily change and a weekly decrease of 300 [3]. Processing and Profitability - The carbon tetrachloride extraction profit of BD was not available on June 6 [3]. - The butene oxidative dehydrogenation profit of BD on June 6 was 736, a daily increase of 100 and a weekly decrease of 170 [3]. - The import profit of BD on June 6 was 318, a daily increase of 343 and a weekly increase of 156 [3]. - The export profit of BD on June 6 was - 744, a daily decrease of 87 and a weekly increase of 1,118 [3] Group 4: Variety - to - Variety and Intra - Variety Spreads Variety - to - Variety Spreads - The RU - BR spread on June 6 was - 11,230, a daily increase of 1,501 and a weekly increase of 3,782 [3]. - The NR - BR spread on June 6 was - 12,855, a daily increase of 1,456 and a weekly increase of 3,697 [3]. - The Thai mixed - cis - butadiene spread on June 6 was 2,000, a daily decrease of 100 and a weekly increase of 50 [3]. - The 3L - styrene - butadiene spread on June 6 was 3,150, with no daily change and a weekly increase of 150 [3] Intra - Variety Spreads - The cis - butadiene standard - non - standard price spread on June 6 was 200, a daily decrease of 50 with no weekly change [3]. - The styrene - butadiene 1502 - 1712 spread on June 6 was 1,000, with no daily change and a weekly decrease of 50 [3]

s 加安期货 永安合成橡胶早报 研究中心能化团队 2025/6/6 | | | 指标 | 5/8 | 5/29 | 5/30 | 6/4 | 6/5 | 日度变化 | 周度変化 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 主力合约收盘价 | 11370 | 11345 | 11145 | 11095 | 10960 | -135 | -382 | | | | 主力合约持仓量 | 24034 | 33898 | 28417 | 27683 | 26276 | -1407 | -7622 | | | 盘直 | 主力合约成交量 | 106954 | 163945 | 151323 | 129848 | ਰੇਰੇਵਟਰ | -30189 | -64286 | | | | 仓単数量 | 11690 | 12290 | 12270 | 11900 | 11800 | -100 | -490 | | | | 虚实比 | 10.28 | 13.79 | 11.58 | 11.63 | 11.13 | 0 | -3 | | | | ...

Raw Materials and Spot Prices - As of June 5, the market price of butadiene in Shandong is 9400 CNY/ton, an increase of 50 CNY [1] - The CIF price of butadiene in China is 1150 USD/ton, unchanged [1] - The market price of styrene-butadiene rubber (BR9000) in Shandong Qilu Petrochemical is 11400 CNY/ton, unchanged [1] - The price difference for styrene-butadiene rubber-Taiwan mix is -2100 CNY/ton, an increase of 100 CNY [1] - The basis is 440 CNY/ton, an increase of 135 CNY [1] Production and Operating Rates - In May, China's butadiene production was 448,900 tons, a decrease of 1.3% month-on-month [2] - The production of styrene-butadiene rubber was 143,300 tons, an increase of 17.9% month-on-month [2] - The production of semi-steel tires was 54.15 million units, a decrease of 2.2% month-on-month, and a year-on-year decrease of 1.46% for January to May [2] - The production of all-steel tires was 11.82 million units, a decrease of 9.6% month-on-month, and a year-on-year decrease of 3.1% for January to May [2] - As of June 5, the operating rates for the butadiene industry is 68%, a decrease of 1.8% [2] - The operating rate for high-styrene butadiene rubber is 67.1%, a decrease of 8.8% [2] - The operating rate for semi-steel tire manufacturers is 64.1%, a decrease of 11.7% [2] - The operating rate for all-steel tire manufacturers is 55.7%, a decrease of 8.5% [2] Inventory - As of June 4, the port inventory of butadiene is 27,000 tons, a decrease of 1,500 tons [3] - The internal inventory of styrene-butadiene rubber is 28,300 tons, an increase of 200 tons, a month-on-month increase of 0.71% [3] - The inventory of traders is 5,680 tons, a decrease of 680 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 10.69% [3] Market Insights - According to Longzhong Information on June 5, the total inventory of butadiene in the domestic sample decreased slightly, down 1.66% from the previous week [4] - The inventory of sample enterprises increased by 2.07% from the previous week, with some enterprises undergoing maintenance, keeping inventory low [4] - However, there are increases in inventory at some enterprises in East and South China, affecting the overall inventory of sample enterprises [4] - The port inventory of samples decreased by 5.26%, influenced by limited ship arrivals [4] Analysis - On June 5, the rubber sector followed commodity fluctuations, with the main contract for synthetic rubber BR2507 closing at 10,960 CNY/ton, a decrease of 0.27% from the previous settlement price [5] - In early June, domestic butadiene maintenance volumes remain high, but supply is expected to recover in the latter half of the month [5] - Overall production in June is unlikely to increase significantly, with short-term butadiene transactions being poor [5] - The tariff issue on automobiles and auto parts remains unresolved, posing challenges for Japanese and Korean automotive and tire manufacturing, which may lead to a decline in butadiene demand [5] - With the gradual recovery of Asian ethylene maintenance facilities and the expected arrival of Iranian butadiene in mid-June, China's butadiene import volume is anticipated to be substantial [5] - The supply-demand balance for butadiene in June is expected to be loose, with significant supply declines in the styrene-butadiene rubber industry, but still showing year-on-year growth [5] - The tire order situation is not optimistic, with high inventory levels dragging down tire operating rates [5]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The price of raw material butadiene has decreased, negatively impacting the cost of nitrile rubber [1] - Nitrile rubber production is stable, but there is an expectation of reduced supply due to planned maintenance at the Lanzhou Petrochemical facility [1][5] - Downstream factories are primarily purchasing based on immediate needs or depleting previous inventory, leading to a flat market trading environment [2] Market Overview - The average price of butadiene in the Shandong market is 9350 CNY/ton, down 535 CNY (5.41%) from the previous period [3] - The average price of nitrile rubber in the Hengshui market is 16100 CNY/ton, down 60 CNY (0.37%) from the previous period [3] - The overall trend in the nitrile rubber industry chain shows a decline in average prices, with butadiene experiencing the most significant drop [3][9] Supply and Demand Analysis - Current nitrile rubber production is approximately 0.54 million tons, a decrease of 0.02 million tons (3.57%) from the previous period [4][17] - The capacity utilization rate is at 91.70%, down 1.17 percentage points from the previous period [4][27] - Inventory levels for nitrile rubber have increased slightly to 1.31 million tons, up 2.34% from the previous period [4][38] Cost and Profit Analysis - The theoretical production cost of nitrile rubber is 11673.87 CNY/ton, with a production profit of 4184.13 CNY/ton, which has increased by 473.25 CNY (12.75%) from the previous period [22][25] - The profit for butadiene is 2720.44 CNY/ton, down 451.05 CNY (14.22%) from the previous period, while the profit for acrylonitrile is negative at -477 CNY/ton [22][25] Future Market Outlook - The market is expected to experience weak fluctuations, with the Lanzhou Petrochemical facility's maintenance likely to reduce supply [45][47] - The anticipated price range for Lanzhou 3305E nitrile rubber is between 15900-16200 CNY/ton [45]

Group 1 - Jiangsu has established specialized courts for foreign-related cases, handling 38,834 cases involving parties from over 180 countries since 2019, enhancing its judicial credibility and influence [1] - The provincial court has set up research bases for integrated circuits and internet intellectual property protection, adjudicating 282 foreign-related technology cases, including a significant patent infringement case that allowed a company to proceed with its IPO [1] - The court has actively supported "going out" enterprises by enhancing judicial remedies against foreign sanctions, successfully resolving a case where a Swiss company refused to pay a Chinese company, resulting in a full payment of over 84 million yuan [2] Group 2 - Jiangsu courts have handled 1,247 cases related to the Belt and Road Initiative, establishing a judicial cooperation mechanism with 44 cities nationwide [2] - The province has initiated 12 reform pilot projects to improve foreign-related commercial dispute resolution, including a suggestion to support local enterprises in building overseas warehouses [2] - The courts have resolved 861 foreign-related maritime cases, with a notable case being settled in just 27 days, showcasing the efficiency of China's maritime judicial system [3] Group 3 - Jiangsu courts have established a centralized mechanism for foreign investment disputes, adjudicating 8,533 related cases, thereby fostering a favorable investment environment [3] - The courts have received positive feedback from multinational companies, enhancing their confidence in investing in China, as evidenced by a German brand's decision to invest an additional 200 million USD after a favorable ruling [3] - The province has achieved a mediation and withdrawal rate of 43.4% in first-instance foreign-related commercial cases, promoting a multi-channel dispute resolution system [4]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report No clear core view presented in the given content. The report mainly presents a large amount of data on the synthetic rubber market, including prices, trading volumes, and profit margins. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog a. BR (Butadiene Rubber) - **Price and Volume Indicators**: - The closing price of the BR main contract on June 4 was 11,095, down 50 from the previous day and showing a certain change compared to earlier dates [3]. - The main contract's open interest was 27,683, a decrease of 734 from the previous day and 15,981 from the previous week [3]. - The trading volume of the main contract was 129,848, a decrease of 21,475 from the previous day and 38,879 from the previous week [3]. - The warehouse receipt quantity was 11,900, a decrease of 370 from the previous day but an increase of 2,000 from the previous week [3]. - **Price Structure and Spreads**: - The basis (cis - BR) was -135 on June 4, a significant decrease of 390 from the previous day and 335 from the previous week [3]. - The basis (styrene - butadiene - BR) was 265, a decrease of 540 from the previous day and 735 from the previous week [3]. - The monthly spread (06 - 07) was 105, an increase of 130 from the previous day and 160 from the previous week [3]. - The monthly spread (07 - 08) was 160, an increase of 10 from the previous day [3]. - **Market Prices and Profits**: - The market prices in Shandong, Zhejiang, and the ex - factory price in Qilu all showed significant increases, with the Shandong market price reaching 13,650, an increase of 2,150 from the previous day and 2,100 from the previous week [3]. - The CFR Northeast Asia price was 1,750, an increase of 200 from the previous week [3]. - The spot processing profit was 179, an increase of 773 from the previous day and 672 from the previous week [3]. - The import profit was -1,214, an increase of 481 from the previous day and 397 from the previous week [3]. - The export profit was 1,981, a decrease of 562 from the previous day and 491 from the previous week [3]. b. BD (Butadiene) - **Price and Profit Indicators**: - The market prices in Shandong, Jiangsu, and the ex - factory price in Yangzi all increased. The Shandong market price reached 11,050, an increase of 1,350 from the previous day and 1,400 from the previous week [3]. - The CFR China price was 11,082, an increase of 1,390 from the previous week [3]. - The carbon - four extraction profit was 3,459, an increase of 644 from the previous day and 513 from the previous week [3]. - The butene oxidative dehydrogenation profit was 816, a decrease of 90 from the previous day but an increase of 130 from the previous week [3]. - The import profit was -139, a decrease of 301 from the previous day but an increase of 23 from the previous week [3]. - The export profit was -576, an increase of 245 from the previous day but a decrease of 39 from the previous week [3]. c. Downstream Profits - The ABS production profit was 418, showing a significant change compared to previous data (previously -73) [3]. - The SBS production profit (791 - H) was 330, a decrease of 170 from the previous day and 630 from the previous week [3]. d. Price Spreads - **Inter - variety Spreads**: - The RU - BR spread was 3,340, an increase of 1,080 from the previous day [3]. - The NR - BR spread was 1,085, an increase of 365 from the previous day [3]. - The Thai mixed - cis butadiene spread was 3,000, an increase of 1,050 from the previous day [3]. - The 3L - styrene - butadiene spread was 3,450, an increase of 500 from the previous day [3]. - **Intra - variety Spreads**: - The spread between the standard and non - standard cis butadiene was 250, an increase of 50 from the previous day [3]. - The spread between styrene - butadiene 1502 and 1712 was 1,700, an increase of 650 from the previous day [3].

Core Viewpoint - Jilin Petrochemical has successfully developed a domestic catalyst for ethylene-propylene rubber, breaking the reliance on imported catalysts and entering high-end markets, marking a significant step towards becoming a leader in the industry [1][2][6]. Group 1: Market Opportunities and Strategic Layout - In recent years, Jilin Petrochemical has seen steady growth in production and market share as the only domestic company capable of producing both binary and ternary ethylene-propylene rubber [2]. - The company identified its over-reliance on imported catalysts as a major limitation to its high-quality development and initiated a project to develop domestic catalysts in collaboration with research institutions [2][3]. Group 2: From Laboratory to Production Line - The project to develop a domestic catalyst involved extensive collaboration with Qingdao University of Science and Technology, leading to the successful identification of a catalyst suitable for industrial trials [3]. - Over three years, the team addressed 56 key issues related to the catalyst's performance and developed 102 risk mitigation measures, culminating in a viable industrial production trial plan [3]. Group 3: Breakthroughs in Production - On April 19, 2024, the new domestic vanadium catalyst was successfully tested in industrial production, yielding over 50 tons of qualified product, making Jilin Petrochemical the first company in China to produce ternary ethylene-propylene rubber using a domestic catalyst [4]. - A second industrial trial in February 2025 further improved product quality, demonstrating the effectiveness of the new catalyst [4]. Group 4: Market Penetration - Following the successful trials, Jilin Petrochemical engaged with eight leading manufacturers in the automotive sealing and sponge strip sectors to promote its new products [5]. - After thorough demonstrations and trials, a leading automotive sealing manufacturer agreed to purchase Jilin Petrochemical's J-6095 product, highlighting the shift in market dynamics previously dominated by foreign products [5]. Group 5: Industry Impact - The successful conversion of the domestic catalyst research results not only reshapes the ethylene-propylene rubber industry chain but also reflects the strong confidence and capability of state-owned enterprises in achieving technological self-reliance [6].