【基本面跟踪】 合成橡胶基本面数据 | 项目 | | 项目名称 | | 昨日数据 | 前日数据 | 变动幅度 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 顺丁橡胶主力 （02合约） | 日盘收盘价 成交量 | （元/吨） （手） | 11,645 | 11,520 | 125 -10327 | | | | | | 87,354 | 97,681 | | | | | 持仓量 | （手） | 40,237 | 41,261 | -1024 | | | | 成交额 | （万元） | 510,596 | 564,140 | -53544 | | 价差数据 | 基差 | 山东顺丁-期货主力 | | 5 | 11,500 | -11495 | | | 月差 | BR02-BR05 | | -85 | -85 | 0 | | | 顺丁价格 | 华北顺丁 | （民营） | 11,100 | 11,000 | 100 | | | | 华东顺丁 | （民营） | 11,200 | 11,100 | 100 | | | | 华南顺丁 | （民营） | 11,250 ...

2026 年合成橡胶市场展望 20260105 摘要 顺丁橡胶价格与原油相关性低，但受丁二烯成本影响显著，丁二烯占顺 丁胶成本至少 80%，其价格波动直接影响顺丁胶价格。2025 年丁二烯 供需两旺，供应增长更显著，库存高企，但预计 2026 年供需缺口将扩 大，支撑顺丁胶价格。 2025 年顺丁胶总体呈现供需两旺格局，供应增速高于需求，主要因新 增产能投放。尽管半钢胎负荷下降，但汽车行业整体需求强劲，出口增 加，支撑顺丁胶需求。预计 2026 年上半年顺丁胶表现优于下半年，因 无新增产能投放，且负荷已处高位。 预计 2026 年上半年顺丁胶市场表现好于下半年，上半年无新增产能， 且可能存在抢出口现象以应对欧盟反倾销调查。下半年随着终裁结果实 施和新增产能投放，市场压力增大。丁二烯价格走势也将影响顺丁胶， 预计上半年看涨，下半年可能回落。 合成胶价格通常跟随丁二烯波动，市场流通量少，易出现暴涨暴跌。预 计 2026 年上半年合成胶价格看涨，下半年可能走弱。天然橡胶估值不 高，易受市场情绪影响，在合成胶上涨情况下，大概率跟随上涨，上半 年价格有望上涨。 Q&A 请介绍一下合成橡胶市场的基本情况及其主要分类。 合 ...

Sarlink® TPV 5765B是一个由泰诺Apex公司生产的高性能热塑性硫化橡胶（TPV）它是一种经过专门设计、中等硬度的挤出级材料，旨在替代要求苛刻的 密封应用中的 EPDM 橡胶。 主要特性 主要应用 它主要用于汽车行业的内外密封系统： 加工方法 该材料适用于高效制造，可通过缩短生产周期来降低生产成本： 合规性和规范 截至 2026 年，Sarlink 5765B 继续符合全球主要汽车标准，包括： 硬度和密度：中等硬度和中等密度。 耐热性：可耐受高达135°C 的高温，并在极低温度下保持柔韧性。 耐久性：具有出色的抗紫外线和抗臭氧性能、优异的抗弯曲疲劳性能和高拉伸强度（约 7.1 MPa）。 表面性能：具有低雾化性、优异的保色性和高熔体稳定性。 耐化学性：对多种化学品和风化作用具有很高的耐受性。 汽车：玻璃导槽、腰带、密封条和发动机舱密封件。 建筑与施工：窗户密封条、伸缩缝和管道密封件。 工业领域：软管、电线电缆护套和家用电器密封件。 挤压成型（型材的主要制造方法）。 注塑成型。 吹塑成型。 福特： WSS-M2D379-B1。 通用汽车： GMP.E/P.029 和 GMW15812P-TPV。 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Short-term investment view on butadiene rubber (BR) is bullish [2] Core Viewpoints - Before the holiday, trading volume weakened, and the upward trend of BD/BR slowed down. Although the actual fundamentals are still weak, with the good overseas and domestic tire demand and the substitution effect triggered by low-priced synthetic rubber, and the plan of DL Chemical to shut down the No. 1 cracking unit of YNCC, the market sentiment is strongly supported [2] Summary by Related Catalogs Market Review - As of December 25, 2025, the ex-factory price of Sinopec's BR9000 was 11,100 yuan/ton, and that of PetroChina's sales companies was between 11,100 - 11,400 yuan/ton. The domestic BR supply remained at a high level this period. The factors driving the increase in supply price and market price mainly included the expectation that butadiene destocking in January would compress BR production profit, the news of butadiene export negotiations to South Korea strengthening the cost support, and the expectation of favorable macro policies such as RRR and interest rate cuts in January [3] Supply - Last week, the domestic butadiene production was 112,500 tons (0.09%), with a capacity utilization rate of 70.61%; the production of high-cis butadiene rubber was 30,900 tons (0.86%), with a capacity utilization rate of 76.92%. Some butadiene and BR production units were shut down, but overall, the supply of BR remained sufficient [2] Demand - In the semi-steel tire market, trading was dull, prices were weak, and merchants were cautious in stocking. In the all-steel tire market, demand weakened, prices were chaotic, and merchants were mainly focused on destocking [2] Inventory - Last week, the butadiene port inventory was 43,300 tons, a 20.28% increase from the previous week; the inventory of high-cis butadiene rubber enterprises + traders was 33,480 tons, a 3.07% decrease from the previous week. Butadiene enterprise inventory decreased, while port inventory increased slightly. BR inventory decreased due to downstream price pressure [2] Basis, Spread/Price Ratio, Profit - The basis of BR in North China was -520 yuan/ton, in East China was -420 yuan/ton, and in South China was -370 yuan/ton. The RU - BR spread was 4,085 yuan/ton (-4.00%); the NR - BR spread was 1,105 yuan/ton (-9.43%); the BR - SC price ratio was 0.47%. The production profit of butadiene oxidation dehydrogenation was -294 yuan/ton, and that of C4 extraction was 1,571.67 yuan/ton. The production profit of BR was 348 yuan/ton, with a gross profit margin of 3.12% [2] Geopolitical and Macroeconomic Factors - In December, the PMI rebounded comprehensively, reversing the slowdown trend of the previous two months. The central bank will continue to implement a moderately loose monetary policy. The EU extended economic sanctions against Russia for six months. The US economy grew more than expected, and precious metals and copper reached new highs. The US launched an air strike on Venezuela [2] Investment and Trading Strategies - For investment, maintain a short-term bullish view. For trading, keep a long position appropriately and beware of the risk of capital profit-taking and price correction. Consider the strategy of going long on BR and short on NR/RU. Pay attention to downstream demand, cost changes, unit maintenance, and geopolitical factors [2] Device Maintenance and Operation - Multiple butadiene and BR production units have maintenance plans in 2025 - 2026, which will affect future supply [9][10] Correlation Analysis of Related Varieties - The report provides the correlation coefficient heat maps of price trends of natural rubber-related varieties over 1 and 3 months, showing the relationships between different rubber varieties and other commodities [8]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The trend strength of synthetic rubber is 1, indicating a "neutral" view. The range of trend strength is from -2 to 2, where -2 is the most bearish and 2 is the most bullish [4]. 2. Core View of the Report - In the short - term, the price center of synthetic rubber moves up, and in the medium - term, it enters a volatile phase. The price of butadiene and cis - butadiene rubber may follow the upward trend of the oil product sector in the short - term due to the geopolitical conflict between the US and Venezuela during the New Year's Day holiday. The current situation of butadiene is neutral with strong expectations. Cis - butadiene rubber has no obvious fundamental contradictions and mainly fluctuates with the cost side [1][4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Market of Cis - Butadiene Rubber**: The closing price of the cis - butadiene rubber 02 contract was 11,565 yuan/ton, down 35 yuan; the trading volume was 121,267 lots, down 30,873 lots; the open interest was 49,563 lots, down 9,640 lots; and the trading volume was 700.548 million yuan, down 183.493 million yuan [2]. - **Spread Data**: The basis of Shandong cis - butadiene rubber and the futures main contract was - 115 yuan, up 35 yuan; the monthly spread of BR02 - BR05 was - 65 yuan, down 35 yuan [2]. - **Spot Market**: The prices of North China, East China, and South China cis - butadiene rubber remained unchanged. The prices of Qilu styrene - butadiene rubber (models 1502 and 1712) decreased by 50 yuan. The price of butadiene in Jiangsu remained unchanged, while that in Shandong increased by 50 yuan [2]. - **Fundamental Indicators**: The operating rate of cis - butadiene rubber was 78.8006%, unchanged; the theoretical full cost of cis - butadiene rubber was 11,152 yuan/ton, unchanged; and the profit of cis - butadiene rubber was 348 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. 3.2 Industry News - **Cis - Butadiene Rubber Inventory**: As of December 31, 2025, the domestic cis - butadiene rubber inventory was 33,500 tons, a decrease of 1,000 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month decrease of 3.07%. The price of cis - butadiene rubber increased due to cost support, and some production enterprises significantly reduced inventory [3]. - **Butadiene Inventory**: As of December 31, the inventory of butadiene in East China ports was about 44,700 tons, an increase of 1,400 tons from the previous period. Importers expect a reduction in imports in January [3][4]. - **Short - term Market Outlook**: Due to the geopolitical conflict between the US and Venezuela during the New Year's Day holiday, international energy prices may be strong. Butadiene and cis - butadiene rubber may follow the upward trend of the oil product sector. The supply of domestic butadiene is at a high level, while the international supply is slightly reduced. The demand for butadiene from synthetic rubber remains high [4].

Report Overview - Report Title: Synthetic Rubber Morning Report [2] - Research Team: Energy & Chemicals Team of the Research Center [3] - Date: January 5, 2026 [3] Core Data Summary 1. BR (Butadiene Rubber) Futures Data - BR主力合约(12): Price on December 31st was 11,520, with a daily change of -45 and a weekly change of -115 [4] - 持仓量 (Open Interest): 41,261 on December 31st, a daily decrease of 8,302 and a weekly decrease of 23,244 [4] - 成交量 (Trading Volume): 97,681 on December 31st, a daily decrease of 23,586 and a weekly decrease of 98,389 [4] - 仓単数量 (Warehouse Receipts): 23,490, no change on a daily or weekly basis [4] - 虚实比 (Ratio of Open Interest to Warehouse Receipts): 8.78 on December 31st, a daily decrease of 2 and a weekly decrease of 5 [4] Basis and Spread Data - 顺丁基差 (Butadiene Rubber Basis): -20 on December 31st, a daily increase of 45 and a weekly increase of 315 [4] - 02 - 03 Spread: -40 on December 31st, a daily decrease of 15 and a weekly decrease of 35 [4] - 03 - 04 Spread: -20 on December 31st, a daily increase of 5 and a weekly decrease of 12 [4] - RU - BR Spread: 4,085 on December 31st, a daily decrease of 20 and a weekly decrease of 60 [4] - NR - BR Spread: 1,105 on December 31st, a daily decrease of 20 and a weekly decrease of 15 [4] Spot and Price Data - 山东市场价 (Shandong Market Price): 11,500 on December 31st, no daily change and a weekly increase of 200 [4] - 传化市场价 (Transfar Market Price): 11,450 on December 31st, no daily change and a weekly increase of 150 [4] - 齐鲁出厂价 (Qilu Factory Price): 11,500 on December 31st, no daily change and a weekly increase of 200 [4] - CFR东北亚 (CFR Northeast Asia): 1,415 on December 31st, no daily change and a weekly increase of 15 [4] - CFR东南亚 (CFR Southeast Asia): 1,635 on December 31st, no daily change and a weekly increase of 10 [4] Profit Data - 现货加工利润 (Spot Processing Profit): 523 on December 31st, a daily increase of 46 and a weekly decrease of 9 [4] - 进口利润 (Import Profit): -187 on December 31st, a daily decrease of 5 and a weekly increase of 97 [4] - 出口利润 (Export Profit): 794 on December 31st, a daily increase of 4 and a weekly decrease of 119 [4] 2. BD (Butadiene) Spot and Price Data - 山东市场价 (Shandong Market Price): 8,605 on December 31st, a daily decrease of 45 and a weekly increase of 205 [4] - 江苏市场价 (Jiangsu Market Price): 8,400 on December 31st, a daily decrease of 50 and a weekly increase of 200 [4] - 扬子出厂价 (Yangzi Factory Price): 8,400 on December 31st, a daily increase of 100 and a weekly increase of 300 [4] Profit Data - 乙烯裂解利润 (Ethylene Cracking Profit): -33 on December 31st, a daily increase of 2 [4] - 碳四抽提利润 (C4 Extraction Profit): Data on December 31st is N/A [4] - 丁烯氧化脱氢利润 (Butylene Oxidative Dehydrogenation Profit): Data not provided [4] - 进口利润 (Import Profit): Data on December 31st is N/A [4] - 出口利润 (Export Profit): -1,301 on December 31st, a daily increase of 46 and a weekly increase of 588 [4] - 丁苯生产利润 (Styrene - Butadiene Rubber Production Profit): 1,038 on December 31st, a daily decrease of 88 and a weekly decrease of 150 [4] - ABS生产利润 (ABS Production Profit): Data on December 31st is N/A [4] - SBS生产利润 (SBS Production Profit): Data on December 31st is N/A [4] Data Sources - Mysteel, Wind [8]

Group 1: Report Information - Report Title: Synthetic Rubber Morning Report [2] - Research Team: Energy and Chemicals Team of the Research Center [3] - Report Date: December 31, 2025 [3] Group 2: BR (Butadiene Rubber) Market Data Futures - BR主力合约(12) price on December 30 was 11,565, down 35 from the previous day and up 170 from November 28 [4] - Open interest on December 30 was 49,563, down 9,640 from the previous day and down 49,450 from November 28 [4] - Trading volume on December 30 was 121,267, down 30,873 from the previous day and down 69,779 from November 28 [4] - Warehouse receipt quantity remained at 23,490 [4] - Long - short ratio on December 30 was 10.55, down 2 from the previous day and down 11 from November 28 [4] - Basis for BR on December 30 was -72, up 85 from the previous day and up 280 from November 28 [4] Basis/Spread/Inter - variety - 02 - 03 spread on December 30 was -25, down 10 from the previous day and down 15 from November 28 [4] - 03 - 04 spread on December 30 was -25, down 15 from the previous day and down 20 from November 28 [4] - RU - BR spread on December 30 was 4,105, up 40 from the previous day and down 150 from November 28 [4] - NR - BR spread on December 30 was 1,125, up 60 from the previous day and down 95 from November 28 [4] Spot - Shandong market price on December 30 was 11,500, up 50 from the previous day and up 450 from November 28 [4] - Chuanhua market price on December 30 was 11,450, unchanged from the previous day and up 500 from November 28 [4] - Qilu ex - factory price on December 30 was 11,500, up 200 from the previous day and up 400 from November 28 [4] - CFR Northeast Asia price on December 30 was 1,415, up 15 from the previous day and up 15 from November 28 [4] - CFR Southeast Asia price on December 30 was 1,635, up 10 from the previous day and up 10 from November 28 [4] Profit - Spot processing profit on December 30 was 477, down 1 from the previous day and down 290 from November 28 [4] - Import profit on December 30 was -203, down 68 from the previous day and up 368 from November 28 [4] - Export profit on December 30 was 809, up 26 from the previous day and down 356 from November 28 [4] Group 3: BD (Butadiene) Market Data Spot - Shandong market price on December 30 was 8,650, up 50 from the previous day and up 725 from November 28 [4] - Jiangsu market price on December 30 was 8,450, unchanged from the previous day and up 750 from November 28 [4] - Yangzi ex - factory price on December 30 was 8,300, unchanged from the previous day and up 500 from November 28 [4] - CFR China price had some data missing [4] Profit - Ethylene cracking profit had some data missing [4] - Carbon four extraction profit on December 29 was 1,604, subsequent data missing [4] - Butene oxidative dehydrogenation profit on December 30 was -294, up 140 from the previous day and up 960 from November 28 [4] - Import profit on December 30 was 660, unchanged from the previous day and up 497 from November 28 [4] - Export profit data had some missing values [4] Production Profit - Styrene - butadiene production profit on December 30 was 1,125, down 63 from the previous day and down 188 from November 28 [4] - ABS production profit data had some missing values [4] - SBS production profit on December 30 was -790, unchanged from the previous day and down 365 from November 28 [4] Group 4: Data Source - Data sources include Mysteel and Wind [8]

投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 (2012) 31号 合成橡胶数据日报 | | 市市 | | --- | --- | | 客 服 热 线 | 官方网站 ■ | | 400-8888-598 | 谨 风 www.itf.com.cn | ITGE शिवर 入 期 | 国贸期货研究院 | 从业资格证号:F3071622 | 2025/12/30 | 能源化工研究中心:叶海文 | 投资咨询证号: Z0014205 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 行情综述 | 涨跌幅 | 指标 | 单位 | 涨跌 | 前目 | 现值 | 11635 | 11600 | 收盘价 | -35.00 | -0.30% | 元/吨 | | | | | | | | | | | 11490 | 130.00 | 结算价 | 元/吨 | 11 ...

Raw Materials and Spot Prices - As of December 29, the market price of butadiene in Shandong is 8600 (+200) CNY/ton; CIF price for butadiene in China is 965 (+0) USD/ton; the market price for styrene-butadiene rubber (BR9000) at Qilu Petrochemical is 11450 (+150) CNY/ton, with a price difference of -3250 (+230) CNY/ton for styrene-butadiene rubber and a basis difference of -150 (+185) CNY/ton [1] Production and Operating Rates - In November, China's butadiene production was 483,600 tons, up 5.8% month-on-month; styrene-butadiene rubber production was 130,300 tons, down 5.3% month-on-month; semi-steel tire production was 58.31 million units, up 12.8% month-on-month and 3.2% year-on-year; full-steel tire production was 13.01 million units, down 5.5% month-on-month and up 4.8% year-on-year [2] - As of December 25, the operating rates in the styrene-butadiene rubber industry showed differentiation, with butadiene industry operating rate at 70.6%, up 0.1% month-on-month; high cis-styrene-butadiene rubber industry operating rate at 76.8%, up 0.9% month-on-month; semi-steel tire sample manufacturers' operating rate at 70.4%, up 0.5% month-on-month; full-steel tire sample manufacturers' operating rate at 61.7%, down 3% month-on-month [2] Inventory Levels - As of December 24, butadiene port inventory was 43,300 tons, up 7,300 tons; styrene-butadiene rubber factory inventory was 27,600 tons, up 1,250 tons, a 4.5% increase; trader inventory was 5,690 tons, down 720 tons, an 11.2% decrease [3] Market Analysis - On December 29, the market sentiment for commodities remains strong, with BR prices rising; the main contract for synthetic rubber BR2602 closed at 11,600 CNY/ton, an increase of 0.96% compared to the previous day's settlement price. The domestic supply of butadiene is relatively high, and with a significant amount of imported cargo, port inventories are operating at high levels, indicating a generally ample supply. However, the demand for butadiene remains strong, and it is expected to fluctuate. The supply side shows that only the Dushanzi and Maoming styrene-butadiene rubber facilities continue to be offline, while other facilities are operating at high levels. Demand is expected to decrease due to maintenance schedules among tire manufacturers during the New Year holiday. Overall, the cost side is expected to fluctuate, with high supply levels and limited fundamental support for BR, but the market sentiment remains strong, leading to wide fluctuations in BR prices [3]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the upcoming 2026 Future Industry New Materials Expo, focusing on the demand for lightweight, high-strength, and sustainable materials across various industries such as robotics, automotive, drones, data centers, aerospace, AI, and new energy sources [1][5]. Summary by Sections Anti-Dumping Measures - The Ministry of Commerce announced a review of anti-dumping measures on imports of ethylene-propylene rubber from the US, South Korea, and the EU, effective from December 20, 2025 [1]. - During the review period from July 1, 2024, to June 30, 2025, the same anti-dumping tax rates will continue to apply as per the 2020 announcement [2]. Anti-Dumping Tax Rates - The anti-dumping tax rates for various companies are as follows: - US companies: 222.0% for Dow Chemical, 214.9% for ExxonMobil, and 219.8% for both Arlanxeo US and other US companies [3]. - South Korean companies: 12.5% for Kumho Polychem, 21.1% for Lotte Chemical, and 24.5% for other South Korean companies [3]. - EU companies: 18.1% for Arlanxeo Netherlands, 14.7% for ExxonMobil Chemical France, and 31.7% for other EU companies [3]. Exhibition Details - The expo will feature six major exhibition areas, including a focus on lightweight, high-strength, and sustainable materials, highlighting innovations in carbon fiber, polymers, and modified plastics [1][4]. - Over 800 enterprises are expected to participate, showcasing advancements in new materials and technologies [5]. Industry Focus Areas - Key areas of focus at the expo include: - Robotics, smart vehicles, AI consumer electronics - Low-altitude aircraft, aerospace, deep-sea technology, rail transportation components - Quantum technology, 6G, brain-computer interfaces, computing power center server components - New energy equipment components, high-performance fibers and composite materials, and low-carbon sustainable materials [6].