Report Title - Natural and Synthetic Rubber Daily Review 20250805: Natural Rubber to Fluctuate, Synthetic Rubber to Weaken [2] Market Data Summary Natural Rubber - Closing prices on 2025-07-25, 2025-08-01, and 2025-08-04 were 14365, 14310, and 15585 respectively [1] - Volumes on 2025-07-25, 2025-08-01, and 2025-08-04 were 252447, 329655, and -77208 respectively [1] - Open interests on 2025-07-25, 2025-08-01, and 2025-08-04 were 190262, -1952, and 188310 respectively [1] - Registered warehouse receipts on 2025-07-25, 2025-08-01, and 2025-08-04 were 177630, 182020, and 176640 respectively [1] Synthetic Rubber - Closing prices on 2025-07-25, 2025-08-01, and 2025-08-04 were 11395, 11455, and 12415 respectively [1] - Volumes on 2025-07-25, 2025-08-01, and 2025-08-04 were 160791, 55081, and 73266 respectively [1] - Open interests on 2025-07-25, 2025-08-01, and 2025-08-04 were 33939, 31806, and 49311 respectively [1] - Registered warehouse receipts on 2025-07-25, 2025-08-01, and 2025-08-04 were 10340, 9840, and 10540 respectively [1] Supply and Demand Analysis Supply - In major natural rubber producing regions such as Thailand, Vietnam, and Indonesia, there will be precipitation in the coming days. In China, Guangdong, Guangxi, and Yunnan will also see rainfall, while Hainan will have less [1] - As of July 31, 2025, the weekly capacity utilization rate of butadiene rubber was 69.33%, up 2.9% from the previous week, and that of styrene-butadiene rubber was 78.79%, unchanged from the previous week [1] Demand - As of July 31, 2025, the weekly operating rate of all-steel tires in Shandong was 61.06%, down 3.94% from the previous week, and that of semi-steel tires in China was 74.63%, down 0.87% from the previous week [1] - In June, the retail sales of the national automobile market reached 2.904 million units, an increase of 217,700 units from the previous month. Passenger car sales were 2.336 million units, an increase of 184,300 units from the previous month, and truck sales were 316,000 units, an increase of 24,500 units from the previous month [1] Cost and Inventory Analysis Cost - As of August 4, 2025, the purchase price of natural rubber latex in the Hat Yai market of Songkhla Province, Thailand, was 62 Thai baht per kilogram, unchanged from the previous day, and the daily purchase price of natural rubber latex in the Hainan market was 14,400 yuan per ton, a decrease of 650 yuan per ton from the previous day [1] - OPEC+ decided to increase production in September, combined with the decline in the employment data of the refinery, the price of crude oil is expected to weaken, and the price of upstream raw materials has decreased [1] Inventory - As of August 1, 2025, the weekly inventory of natural rubber on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 208,430 tons, a decrease of 2,380 tons from the previous week, the weekly social inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao was 19,600 tons, an increase of 5,900 tons from the previous week, and the bonded area inventory was 88,900 tons, a decrease of 3,000 tons from the previous week [1] - As of July 31, 2025, the weekly social inventory of butadiene rubber was 12,988 tons, an increase of 12 tons from the previous week [1] Core View - Natural rubber prices may fluctuate due to increased precipitation affecting tapping and a decline in tire operating rates [1] - Synthetic rubber prices may weaken due to falling raw material costs and rising inventories [1] - Attention should be paid to the support levels of natural rubber around 1880-14000 and the resistance levels around 15000-15200, and the support levels of butadiene rubber around 10800-11000 and the resistance levels around 11700-11900 [1]

Industry Investment Ratings - Cotton: ★☆☆ [1] - Pulp: ★☆☆ [1] - Sugar: ★☆☆ [1] - Apple: ★★★ [1] - Timber: ★☆☆ [1] - Natural Rubber: ★★★ [1] - 20 - inch Rubber: ★★★ [1] - Butadiene Rubber: ☆☆☆ [1] Core Views - The report analyzes the market conditions of various soft commodities including cotton, sugar, apple, rubber, pulp, and timber, providing corresponding operation suggestions based on their supply - demand, price trends, and other factors [2][3][4] Summary by Commodity Cotton &棉纱 - Zhengzhou cotton rebounded today, with the near - month contract stronger and the January contract weaker. The 9 - 1 and 9 - 11 spreads also rebounded. In July, cotton inventory digestion slowed, downstream demand was weak, and processing profit was under pressure. New - year Xinjiang has a strong production increase expectation. Operationally, it's advisable to wait and see or maintain a positive spread strategy for 9 - 11 [2] Sugar - Last week, US sugar fluctuated. Brazilian production data in mid - July was neutral to bearish. In China, Zhengzhou sugar also fluctuated. The rainfall in Guangxi was good in July but may decrease later, increasing the uncertainty of 25/26 sugar production. Overall, US sugar is trending down, and Zhengzhou sugar lacks positive factors. Operationally, wait and see [3] Apple - The futures price fluctuated. The inventory of cold - stored apples is low, and traders are eager to sell. The price of early - maturing apples dropped after a high opening. The market focus has shifted to the new - season yield estimate. Operationally, wait and see [4] 20 - inch Rubber, Natural Rubber & Synthetic Rubber - Today, RU fluctuated strongly, NR weakly, and BR continued to fall. The supply of natural rubber is entering the high - yield period, and the demand for tires is weak. Natural rubber inventory decreased, while synthetic rubber inventory increased. Operationally, wait and see [6] Pulp - Pulp futures continued to fall today. The domestic port inventory is relatively high, supply is loose, and demand is weak. The price may return to low - level fluctuations. Operationally, wait and see [7] Timber - The futures price rebounded. The supply of domestic coniferous logs is expected to remain low, and the demand is good. The inventory is low, and the spot price is expected to rebound. Operationally, maintain a long - biased strategy [8]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view on butadiene rubber is a bearish oscillation, indicating that the price of butadiene rubber is expected to fluctuate at a low level in the short term [4]. Core View of the Report - The sentiment has declined, and there are negative factors on the cost side. The price of butadiene rubber (BR) is oscillating at a low level. The supply of butadiene rubber is expected to increase in August, while the demand shows a neutral trend. The inventory and basis show a positive trend, and the profit and geopolitical - macro factors are negative [4]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Market Review - This week, the price of high - cis butadiene rubber of Sinopec Chemical Sales has been reduced by 400 yuan/ton in total, and that of major sales companies of PetroChina has been reduced by 100 yuan/ton in total. As of July 24, 2025, the mainstream ex - factory price of high - cis butadiene rubber in China is between 11,800 and 12,100 yuan/ton. The market sentiment has changed, and the prices of butadiene rubber, raw material butadiene, and related natural rubber have gradually declined [7]. Supply and Demand Analysis Supply - Last week, the domestic butadiene production was 1.034 million tons, with a capacity utilization rate of 69.97%. The production of high - cis butadiene rubber was 910,000 tons, with a capacity utilization rate of 72.46%. Some butadiene devices were shut down or under maintenance, and the production of butadiene rubber is expected to continue to increase in August [4]. Demand - For semi - steel tires, the replacement market's sales performance has continued the weak trend of last week, and the terminal demand has not improved significantly. For all - steel tires, the market transactions have increased slightly compared with last week, and some brands may raise prices next month [4]. Inventory - Last week, the butadiene port inventory was 104,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 33.76%. The inventory of high - cis butadiene rubber enterprises + traders was 31,320 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.09%. The overall inventory of sample enterprises has limited fluctuations [4]. Basis - The basis of butadiene rubber in North China is - 55 yuan/ton, in East China is 45 yuan/ton, and in South China is 95 yuan/ton. The futures price is higher than the spot price [4]. Spread/Price Ratio - The RU - BR spread is 2,855 yuan/ton (a decrease of 9.72%), the NR - BR spread is - 2,044 yuan/ton (a decrease of 20.44%), and the BR - SC price ratio is 0.94% [4]. Profit - The production gross profit of butadiene by oxidative dehydrogenation is 176 yuan/ton, and that by C4 extraction is 1,988 yuan/ton. The production gross profit of butadiene rubber is - 176 yuan/ton, and the gross profit margin is - 1.47% [4]. Geopolitical and Macroeconomic Factors - The fundamentals of crude oil are continuously loose, the demand in the refined oil market is weak, and the international crude oil price is oscillating downward. The market's optimistic sentiment towards the "anti - involution" policy has weakened, and the premium of the coal chemical and new energy chains has been given back. Trump signed an executive order to impose "reciprocal tariffs" on multiple countries and regions, but the market generally believes that China - US tariffs may ease [4]. Device Information - In 2025, many refineries in China have carried out or planned to carry out device overhauls, including major state - owned refineries and local refineries. Some butadiene and butadiene rubber production devices are also in a state of overhaul or shutdown [12][13]. Price Trend Charts - The report provides various price trend charts, including the price trends of butadiene rubber, butadiene, and other related products, as well as the seasonal charts of prices, production, consumption, and inventory [15][21][32]. Trading Strategy - Unilateral trading: Oscillation; Arbitrage trading: Pay attention to going long on BR and short on NR/RU. Also, pay attention to downstream demand, cost changes, device overhauls, and geopolitical factors [4].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report - The synthetic rubber market is expected to operate weakly in the short - term with narrowing downside space. The butadiene market is likely to experience a short - term callback and then enter a weak pattern in the medium - term [2][4][5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 This Week's Synthetic Rubber View - **Supply**: High - cis butadiene rubber production and capacity utilization continued to increase this week. Next week, production is expected to decline slightly due to planned shutdowns and potential restarts [4]. - **Demand**: In terms of rigid demand, the capacity utilization rate of tire sample enterprises is expected to be slightly adjusted. Substitute demand remains high, and overall demand maintains a high year - on - year growth rate [4]. - **Inventory**: As of July 30, 2025, the inventory of high - cis butadiene rubber sample enterprises decreased. Sample production enterprise inventory decreased while sample trading enterprise inventory increased slightly [4]. - **View**: In the short - term, butadiene rubber futures prices are expected to correct from high levels and enter an oscillatory pattern in the medium - term. The theoretical valuation range of butadiene rubber futures is 11,000 - 11,800 yuan/ton [4]. - **Strategy**: For single - side trading, it is bearish. For cross - period trading, there is no recommendation. For cross - variety trading, the NR - BR spread is expected to shrink in the short - term [4]. 3.2 This Week's Butadiene View - **Supply**: Domestic butadiene supply remained stable this week, with production at 103,400 tons and capacity utilization at 69.97% [5]. - **Demand**: The demand from synthetic rubber for butadiene remains high, while the demand from ABS is expected to remain constant, and the demand from SBS maintains rigid procurement [5]. - **Inventory**: The total domestic butadiene sample inventory dropped to a low for the year, with port inventory significantly reduced due to weather - related factors [5]. - **View**: In the short - term, butadiene spot prices are expected to correct, but the decline is limited. In the medium - to - long - term, the supply pressure is the main contradiction, and it is expected to enter a weak pattern after the macro - sentiment eases [5]. 3.3 Butadiene Fundamentals - Butadiene is in the stage of supply - demand pricing and has a low correlation with the raw material end. Its capacity is in a state of continuous expansion, with the speed and amplitude slightly faster than that of downstream industries [8][10]. 3.4 Synthetic Rubber Fundamentals - **Supply of Butadiene Rubber**: Production and capacity utilization have shown changes. Costs, profits, and import - export volumes also have their own trends. Inventory levels have decreased [37][40][47]. - **Demand of Butadiene Rubber**: The demand from the tire industry is related to factors such as inventory and capacity utilization [51].

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - No explicit core view is presented in the given content. The report mainly provides data on the synthetic rubber market, including prices, trading volumes, inventories, and profit margins. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 BR (High - Cis Polybutadiene Rubber) - **Trading Data**: On July 31, the closing price of the main contract was 11,495, down 280 from the previous day and 790 from the beginning of the week; the position volume was 34,820, a decrease of 4,870 from the previous day and 14,008 from the beginning of the week; the trading volume was 93,023, down 7,369 from the previous day and 55,619 from the beginning of the week [3]. - **Warehouse Receipts and Virtual - to - Real Ratio**: The number of warehouse receipts was 10,340, an increase of 150 from the previous day and 500 from the beginning of the week; the virtual - to - real ratio was 16.84, down 3 from the previous day and 8 from the beginning of the week [3]. - **Basis and Spread**: The high - cis basis was 205, up 180 from the previous day and 390 from the beginning of the week; the high - cis basis (two major oil companies) was 305, down 20 from the previous day but up 390 from the beginning of the week; the styrene - butadiene basis was 425, up 130 from the previous day and 640 from the beginning of the week; the 8 - 9 spread was - 50, up 205 from the previous day and 180 from the beginning of the week; the 9 - 10 spread was 15, down 10 from the previous day and 25 from the beginning of the week [3]. - **Spot Prices**: The Shandong market price was 11,700, down 100 from the previous day and 400 from the beginning of the week; the Transfar market price was 11,450, down 350 from the previous day and 450 from the beginning of the week; the Qilu Petrochemical ex - factory price was 11,800, down 300 from the previous day and 400 from the beginning of the week [3]. - **Processing and Import - Export Profits**: The spot processing profit was 167, up 2 from the previous day and 110 from the beginning of the week; the futures processing profit was - 38, down 178 from the previous day and 280 from the beginning of the week; the import profit was - 84,506, up 2,570 from the previous day and 2,534 from the beginning of the week; the export profit was - 245, up 63 from the previous day [3]. 3.2 BD (Butadiene) - **Spot Prices**: The Shandong market price was 9,150, down 100 from the previous day and 500 from the beginning of the week; the Jiangsu market price was 9,200, down 100 from the previous day and 450 from the beginning of the week; the Yangzi Petrochemical ex - factory price was 9,400, unchanged from the previous day and down 300 from the beginning of the week; the CFR China price was 1,090, unchanged from the previous day and down 10 from the beginning of the week [3]. - **Processing and Import - Export Profits**: The carbon - four extraction profit data was unavailable; the butene oxidative dehydrogenation profit was 176, down 100 from the previous day and 590 from the beginning of the week; the import profit was 210, down 79 from the previous day and 397 from the beginning of the week; the export profit was - 977, up 70 from the previous day and 485 from the beginning of the week [3]. 3.3 Downstream Profits - The high - cis production profit was - 38, down 178 from the previous day and 280 from the beginning of the week; the styrene - butadiene production profit was 725, down 200 from the previous day; the ABS production profit was 261, up 29 from the previous day and down 57 from the beginning of the week; the SBS (791 - H) production profit was 930, unchanged from the previous day and up 410 from the beginning of the week [3]. 3.4 Variety - to - Variety Spreads - RU - BR was - 20,260, up 4,485 from the previous day and 13,323 from the beginning of the week; NR - BR was - 22,545, up 4,570 from the previous day and 13,163 from the beginning of the week; the Thai mixed - high - cis spread was 2,550, down 200 from the previous day and 250 from the beginning of the week; the 3L - styrene - butadiene spread was 2,600, down 100 from the previous day and 250 from the beginning of the week [3]. 3.5 Intra - Variety Spreads - The high - cis standard - non - standard spread was 300, up 50 from the previous day and down 100 from the beginning of the week; the styrene - butadiene 1502 - 1712 spread was 1,150, up 50 from the previous day and 50 from the beginning of the week [3].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints - Recently, the support from the cost and supply side has loosened. Both the synthetic rubber futures and the mainstream supply prices have shown a rapid rise and then a fall. Arbitrageurs are actively entering the market, but the downstream terminal procurement is passive. The overall inventory of production enterprises has decreased, while the inventory of trading enterprises has slightly increased. [2] - Next week, there are expectations of short - term shutdown and maintenance for the butadiene rubber plants of Qixiang Tengda and Maoming Petrochemical, and the butadiene rubber plant of Shandong Yihua is expected to restart. The supply is expected to decrease slightly, but under the weak demand expectation, the inventory of production enterprises may still increase. [2] - In terms of demand, the overall capacity utilization rate of semi - steel tires has declined slightly this week due to maintenance in some enterprises at the end of the month, and the overall capacity utilization rate of all - steel tires has also decreased due to maintenance in some enterprises. The overall shipment of enterprises at the end of the month was concentrated, and the finished product inventory decreased. Next week, the resumption of production of maintenance enterprises will boost the overall capacity utilization rate to some extent, but there are also maintenance arrangements at the beginning of the month in some enterprises. It is expected that the overall capacity utilization rate will be slightly adjusted, and the overall improvement space is limited. The short - term of the br2509 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 11380 - 12000. [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract of synthetic rubber was 11495 yuan/ton, a decrease of 280 yuan/ton compared with the previous period. The position of the main contract was 34820, a decrease of 4870. The 9 - 10 spread of synthetic rubber was 15 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan/ton. The total warehouse receipt quantity of butadiene rubber was 2290 tons, unchanged from the previous period. [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The mainstream price of BR9000 butadiene rubber from Qilu Petrochemical in Shandong was 11950 yuan/ton, an increase of 100 yuan/ton; that from Daqing Petrochemical in Shandong was 11800 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan/ton; that from Daqing Petrochemical in Shanghai was 11900 yuan/ton, unchanged; that from Maoming Petrochemical in Guangdong was 11900 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis of synthetic rubber was 305 yuan/ton, and the basis in Shandong was 130 yuan/ton. [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The price of Brent crude oil was 73.24 US dollars/barrel, an increase of 0.73 US dollars/barrel; the price of WTI crude oil was 70 US dollars/barrel, an increase of 0.79 US dollars/barrel. The price of Northeast Asian ethylene was 820 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the price of naphtha CFR Japan was 608.25 US dollars/ton, an increase of 19 US dollars/ton; the intermediate price of butadiene CFR China was 1090 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the market price of butadiene in Shandong market was 9150 yuan/ton, a decrease of 100 yuan/ton. [2] - The weekly production capacity of butadiene was 14.77 million tons/week, unchanged; the capacity utilization rate of butadiene was 70%, an increase of 2.04 percentage points. The port inventory of butadiene was 15700 tons, a decrease of 4300 tons. The operating rate of Shandong local refineries' atmospheric and vacuum distillation units was 48.16%, an increase of 0.85 percentage points. [2] - The monthly output of butadiene rubber was 122,500 tons, a decrease of 16,900 tons; the weekly capacity utilization rate of butadiene rubber was 67.63%, an increase of 2.42 percentage points. The production profit of butadiene rubber was - 440 yuan/ton, an increase of 192 yuan/ton. The social inventory of butadiene rubber was 32,300 tons, unchanged; the manufacturer's inventory was 24,850 tons, a decrease of 800 tons; the trader's inventory was 7470 tons, an increase of 870 tons. [2] 3.4 Downstream Situation - The operating rate of domestic semi - steel tires was 75.87%, a decrease of 0.12 percentage points; the operating rate of domestic all - steel tires was 65.02%, a decrease of 0.08 percentage points. The monthly output of all - steel tires was 1.262 million pieces, and the monthly output of semi - steel tires was 5.523 million pieces, an increase of 108,000 pieces. [2] - The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong were 40.95 days, an increase of 0.1 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong were 46.55 days, an increase of 0.37 days. [2] 3.5 Industry News - As of July 30, the inventory of high - cis butadiene rubber sample enterprises in China was 31,300 tons, a decrease of 1000 tons compared with the previous period, a month - on - month decrease of 3.09%. [2] - As of July 31, the capacity utilization rate of semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 69.98%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.08 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 10.19 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises was 59.26%, a month - on - month decrease of 2.97 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 0.20 percentage points. [2] - In June 2025, China's butadiene rubber export volume was 29,748.90 tons, a month - on - month increase of 5.99%; from January to June 2025, the total export volume was 152,812.3 tons, an increase of 35,992.05 tons compared with the same period last year, a year - on - year increase of 30.81%. In June 2025, China's butadiene rubber import volume was 19,183.53 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 20.38%; from January to June 2025, the total import volume was 138,619.08 tons, an increase of 2537.53 tons compared with the same period last year, a year - on - year increase of 1.86%. [2]

Group 1 - The World Artificial Intelligence Conference recently concluded with over 70,000 square meters of exhibition space and participation from more than 800 companies, highlighting the significant interest in the integration of AI and manufacturing [1] - The local government emphasizes the importance of AI as a core variable for innovation, aiming to enhance traditional industries and foster new ones, particularly in the Qiantang New District [1] - The Qiantang New District is positioning itself as a manufacturing hub by embedding AI across various industrial chains, striving to become the "Manufacturing Metaverse Center" in the Yangtze River Delta [1] Group 2 - The digital economy's core industries have achieved double-digit growth for three consecutive years, with the number of "future factories" leading the city for four years, contributing to the development of the intelligent manufacturing corridor in East Hangzhou [2] - AI applications in quality inspection and production efficiency are exemplified by companies like Zhongce Rubber Group, which utilizes automated guided vehicles (AGVs) and intelligent detection modules in their manufacturing processes [3] - Changan Ford's Hangzhou plant received the Global Safety Innovation Gold Award for integrating visual inspection technology with AI algorithms to enhance safety systems [3] Group 3 - The Qiantang New District has established a comprehensive digital economy ecosystem, organizing events to support over 100 local manufacturing companies in their digital transformation efforts [4] - The district has created a robust network of AI-related enterprises, including the China (Zhejiang) Robot and Intelligent Equipment Innovation Center, which has attracted numerous innovative companies [4] - The district's AI-driven initiatives are expected to lead to the establishment of more "AI + manufacturing" scenarios, enhancing the competitiveness of local industries [4] Group 4 - The integration of AI in production lines is evident in companies like Panasonic and Ferrero, which have implemented AI technologies to improve efficiency and product quality [5] - The establishment of a new factory by Baicaowei, focusing on global sourcing and production capabilities, signifies the district's transition from an industrial base to a modern industrial highland [6] - The Qiantang New District currently hosts 104 AI-related companies, with projected revenues of 28.051 billion yuan in 2024, indicating a strong growth trajectory in the AI sector [6] Group 5 - The district aims to be a leader in AI innovation and application, striving to build a high ground for intelligent manufacturing and core AI industries [7] - The deep integration of AI and manufacturing is expected to continue shaping the narrative of "Chinese Intelligent Manufacturing" [7]

Price and Market Trends - As of July 29, the market price of butadiene in Shandong is 9350 (-150) CNY/ton, while the CIF price for butadiene in China is 1100 (+0) USD/ton [1] - The market price for styrene-butadiene rubber (BR9000) in Shandong is 11900 (-250) CNY/ton, with a price difference of -2700 (-150) CNY/ton for styrene-butadiene rubber and a basis of 65 (-130) CNY/ton [1] Production and Operating Rates - In June, China's butadiene production was 440,500 tons, a decrease of 1.9% month-on-month; styrene-butadiene rubber production was 122,500 tons, down 14.6% month-on-month [2] - The operating rate for the butadiene industry is 70%, up 3% month-on-month; the operating rate for high-styrene butadiene rubber is 67.6%, up 5.2% month-on-month [2] Inventory Levels - As of July 23, butadiene port inventory is 15,700 tons, down 4,300 tons; styrene-butadiene rubber factory inventory is 24,850 tons, down 800 tons, a decrease of 3.1% [3] - Trader inventory stands at 7,470 tons, an increase of 870 tons, up 13.2% [3] Industry News - According to Longzhong Information on July 29, Qixiang Tengda (002408) has its 90,000 tons/year high-styrene butadiene rubber unit operating normally, with plans for a 10-day maintenance shutdown in early August [4] Market Analysis - On July 29, commodity bullish sentiment has cooled, with BR continuing to decline; the main contract BR2509 closed at 11,835 CNY/ton, a decrease of 2.39% from the previous settlement price [5] - Despite low port inventory supporting butadiene prices, multiple domestic facilities are set to restart, leading to an expected increase in butadiene supply [5] - Demand for tires remains weak, with high inventory levels hindering tire operating rates; overall, short-term cost support exists, but BR supply-demand is loose, limiting upward potential [5]

Group 1 - Synthetic rubber futures experienced a sharp decline, with the main contract dropping to a low of 11,710.0 yuan and closing at 11,805.0 yuan, reflecting a decrease of 2.64% [1][2] - Institutions predict that the BR2509 contract will fluctuate in the range of 11,800 to 12,300 yuan in the short term, influenced by easing cost and supply pressures [2] - The trading atmosphere for synthetic rubber has weakened, leading to a short-term price decline, with macroeconomic sentiment also contributing to the overall market pullback [2] Group 2 - Recent supply increases from domestic producers, including Yanshan Petrochemical and Jinzhou Petrochemical, have led to rising inventory levels and increased selling pressure [2] - Demand from downstream tire manufacturers has shown slight improvement, but overall performance remains below expectations, with some companies planning short-term maintenance [2] - The support level for the BR main contract is identified at 11,700 to 11,800 yuan, while resistance is seen at 12,400 to 12,500 yuan [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Core Viewpoints - This week, the domestic cis - butadiene rubber price in Shandong market fluctuated after rising, with the spot price ranging from 1,1500 to 1,2300 yuan/ton. Sinopec Chemical Marketing and major sales companies of PetroChina raised the ex - factory price of high - cis butadiene rubber by 500 yuan/ton. As of July 24, 2025, the mainstream ex - factory price of high - cis butadiene rubber in China was between 1,2200 and 1,2300 yuan/ton [6]. - Recently, the support from cost and supply side has weakened, and the trading center of butadiene rubber is under pressure due to shipment pressure. After the restart of Yanshan Petrochemical, Jinzhou Petrochemical and Heze Kexin next week, the domestic supply increase will gradually appear, and the shipment pressure on the spot side will increase. It is expected that the inventory of production enterprises will tend to increase. The overall capacity utilization rate of domestic tire enterprises increased slightly this week, but the overall shipment performance was lower than expected at the end of the month, and the finished product inventory increased slightly. There is an expectation that the capacity utilization rate of domestic tire enterprises will decline in the short term [6]. - The br2509 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 1,1800 - 1,2800 in the short term [6]. Summary by Directory 1. Week - on - Week Summary - **Market Review**: This week, the domestic cis - butadiene rubber price in Shandong market fluctuated after rising, and the ex - factory price of high - cis butadiene rubber was raised by 500 yuan/ton. As of July 24, 2025, the mainstream ex - factory price was between 1,2200 and 1,2300 yuan/ton [6]. - **Market Outlook**: The support from cost and supply side has weakened. After the restart of some enterprises next week, the supply will increase, and the shipment pressure on the spot side will rise. The inventory of production enterprises is expected to increase. The capacity utilization rate of domestic tire enterprises may decline in the short term [6]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: The br2509 contract is expected to fluctuate between 1,1800 and 1,2800 in the short term [6]. 2. Futures and Spot Markets Futures Market - **Price Movement**: The price of the synthetic rubber futures main contract fluctuated and closed up this week, with a weekly increase of 6.16% [10]. - **Position Analysis**: No specific content provided in the summary scope. - **Inter - delivery Spread**: As of July 25, the 8 - 9 spread of butadiene rubber was - 30 [17]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: As of July 25, the warehouse receipts of cis - butadiene rubber were 2,390 tons, an increase of 290 tons compared with last week [20]. Spot Market - **Spot Price and Basis**: As of July 24, the price of Qilu Petrochemical BR9000 in the Shandong market was 1,2100 yuan/ton, an increase of 500 yuan/ton compared with last week. The basis of butadiene rubber was - 185 yuan/ton, a decrease of 215 yuan/ton compared with last week [24]. 3. Industry Conditions Upstream - **External Naphtha and Ethylene Prices**: As of July 24, the CFR mid - price of naphtha in Japan was 576.13 US dollars/ton, an increase of 1.56 US dollars/ton compared with last week; the CIF mid - price of Northeast Asian ethylene was 820 US dollars/ton, unchanged from last week [27]. - **Butadiene Capacity Utilization and Port Inventory**: As of July 25, the weekly capacity utilization rate of butadiene was 70%, an increase of 2.04% compared with last week. The port inventory of butadiene was 15,700 tons, a decrease of 4,300 tons compared with last week [30]. Industry - **Production and Capacity Utilization**: In June 2025, the domestic production of cis - butadiene rubber was 122,500 tons, a decrease of 16,900 tons compared with last month. As of July 24, the weekly capacity utilization rate of domestic cis - butadiene rubber was 67.63%, an increase of 2.42% compared with last week [34]. - **Production Profit**: As of July 24, the domestic production profit of cis - butadiene rubber was - 440 yuan/ton, an increase of 192 yuan/ton compared with last week [37]. - **Inventory**: As of July 25, the domestic social inventory of cis - butadiene rubber was 32,320 tons, an increase of 70 tons compared with last week. The inventory of manufacturers was 24,850 tons, a decrease of 800 tons compared with last week; the inventory of traders was 7,470 tons, an increase of 870 tons compared with last week [40]. Downstream - **Tire Capacity Utilization**: As of July 24, the capacity utilization rate of Chinese semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 70.06%, a month - on - month increase of 1.93 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 10.06 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of Chinese all - steel tire sample enterprises was 62.23%, a month - on - month increase of 0.25 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 3.98 percentage points [43]. - **Tire Exports**: In June 2025, China's tire exports were 717,100 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5.47% and a year - on - year decrease of 7.31%. From January to June, the cumulative tire exports were 4.1213 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 4.34% [46]. 4. Options Market Analysis - No relevant content found