Investment Rating - The investment rating for the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery industry is "Positive" (maintained) [2] Core Insights - The agricultural industry achieved a revenue of CNY 11,498.20 billion in 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 3.68%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders rose to CNY 466.39 billion, an increase of 806.55% [6][17] - In Q1 2025, the industry reported a revenue of CNY 2,706.77 billion, a year-on-year growth of 6.79%, with a net profit of CNY 133.13 billion, up 795.07% [6][17] - The overall profitability of the industry improved significantly in Q1 2025, with gross profit margin at 12.91%, net profit margin at 5.16%, and return on equity (ROE) at 2.57%, all showing year-on-year increases [21][30] Summary by Sections Overall Industry Performance - In 2024, the agricultural industry saw a slight decline in revenue but a substantial increase in net profit, indicating improved profitability despite lower sales [17] - The profitability metrics for Q1 2025 showed significant improvements compared to the previous year, with a notable decrease in the expense ratio [21] Sub-industry Analysis - The livestock sector experienced a remarkable increase in net profit, with pig farming turning profitable in 2024 and continuing strong performance into 2025 [6][29] - The poultry farming sector also showed strong growth, with net profit increasing significantly due to reduced feed costs and improved efficiency [43][44] - The pet food sector maintained high growth rates, with revenues and profits continuing to rise [6][25] Livestock Farming - In 2024, pig farming companies generated CNY 4,370.03 billion in revenue, a slight decline, but net profit surged to CNY 320.13 billion, reflecting a recovery in profitability [29] - In Q1 2025, revenues for pig farming increased by 18.69% year-on-year, with net profit rising by 236.12% [29][30] Poultry Farming - Poultry farming companies achieved a revenue of CNY 520.71 billion in 2024, with a net profit of CNY 28.49 billion, marking a significant increase [43] - In Q1 2025, revenue continued to grow, reaching CNY 118.71 billion, with net profit increasing to CNY 4.51 billion [43][44] Feed Industry - The feed industry reported a revenue of CNY 1,863.30 billion in 2024, with a net profit of CNY 52.48 billion, showing a significant recovery in profitability [58] - In Q1 2025, revenues rose to CNY 428.66 billion, with net profit increasing to CNY 15.26 billion [58][61] Animal Health - The animal health sector saw a revenue of CNY 129.02 billion in 2024, with a net profit of CNY 10.82 billion, despite a decline in profitability [66] - In Q1 2025, revenues increased to CNY 30.96 billion, with net profit rising to CNY 4.26 billion [66]

Industry Overview - The agricultural, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery industry experienced a slight revenue decline in 2024, with total revenue of 1.24 trillion, down 4.06% year-on-year. However, net profit turned positive at 47.985 billion, indicating a significant improvement in profitability, particularly in the breeding sector [1][11] - In Q4 2024, the industry achieved revenue of 349.694 billion, up 0.98% year-on-year, and net profit of 16.209 billion, a substantial increase of 293.20% [1][11] - In Q1 2025, revenue reached 290.7 billion, up 4.44% year-on-year, with net profit of 13.335 billion, marking a turnaround from losses [1][11] Swine Breeding - The swine breeding sector saw a recovery in 2024, with revenue of 483.276 billion, down 2.98% year-on-year, and net profit of 33.142 billion, indicating a return to profitability [2][26] - In Q1 2025, revenue increased to 118.888 billion, up 17.32% year-on-year, with net profit of 8.151 billion, continuing the positive trend [2][26] - The sector is expected to maintain good profitability in the short term, driven by strong swine prices and improved breeding costs, while long-term trends may lead to capacity reduction and a new cycle of growth [2][26] Poultry Breeding - The poultry breeding sector achieved revenue of 72.908 billion in 2024, up 1.93% year-on-year, with net profit soaring to 2.949 billion, a remarkable increase of 2094.95% [3][10] - In Q1 2025, revenue was 16.011 billion, up 1.12% year-on-year, with net profit of 0.38 billion, up 155.38% [3][10] - The sector is closely linked to restaurant demand, and with improving downstream demand, poultry products are expected to benefit significantly [3][10] Seed Sector - The seed sector reported revenue of 24.664 billion in 2024, down 6.56%, but net profit turned positive at 0.454 billion [4][15] - In Q1 2025, revenue was 5.231 billion, up 4.79%, although net profit decreased by 31.87% [4][15] - The sector is expected to see improved demand due to ongoing agricultural revitalization efforts and increased grain yields [4][15]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained as "Recommended" [2] Core Insights - The report highlights a weak trend in pig prices and a decline in broiler chicken prices, indicating potential challenges in the livestock sector [3][4] - The report provides a detailed analysis of various agricultural commodities, including grains, oils, and livestock, with specific price movements and percentage changes noted [23][24] Market Overview - The report covers the market performance of the agricultural sector, noting a decrease of 0.35% in the agricultural index compared to the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index [13] - Specific livestock prices are detailed, with live pig prices at 14.51 yuan/kg, showing a decrease of 0.96% [24] - Broiler chicken prices are reported at 3.40 yuan per 500 grams, reflecting an increase of 9.68% [24] Price Trends - The report includes various price trends for grains, with domestic corn priced at 2151.43 yuan/ton, showing an increase of 1.14% [23] - Domestic soybean prices are noted at 3950.00 yuan/ton, remaining stable with no change [23] - The report also highlights fluctuations in edible oils, with soybean oil priced at 8408.00 yuan/ton, showing a slight increase of 0.10% [23] Individual Stock Performance - The report lists individual stock performances within the agricultural sector, with notable movements such as New Hope rising by 1.02% and *ST Aonong declining by 2.01% [13][16] - The performance of various companies in the livestock and feed sectors is analyzed, indicating mixed results across the board [13][16] Valuation Levels - The report provides valuation metrics, with TTM (Trailing Twelve Months) PE ratios for the agricultural sector at 22.41, compared to 11.39 for the broader market [16]

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry Overview Agriculture Sector - Focus on the application of AI and low-altitude data technologies in agriculture, with a long-term positive impact on leading agricultural technology companies. Short-term effects are limited [1][2] - The pig farming industry is currently profitable, but capacity reduction has not yet begun. Pig prices are expected to fluctuate downwards in the first half of the year, with rising soybean meal prices increasing cost pressures. Recommended stocks include Muyuan Foods and Juxing Agriculture [1][4] Pet Food Industry - The impact of increased tariffs on pet food exports to the U.S. is limited, as major companies have established overseas production capabilities. Companies like Zhongchong and Petty are well-positioned to handle U.S. orders [1][5] - Guobao's brand upgrades for the Maifudi brand include the Buff series and goat milk meat series, enhancing brand recognition and product pricing [1][6][7] - Zhongchong and Petty plan to launch staple food products in 2025, indicating continued rapid growth in the industry [1][9] Planting and Seed Industry - The planting and seed sectors face uncertainty, with expectations for genetically modified crop promotion already priced in. High seed inventories and falling grain prices may lead to bottom-line profitability [1][10] Baijiu (Chinese Liquor) Sector - The baijiu sector is undergoing valuation recovery, with consumption demand during the Spring Festival showing differentiation, leading to market share concentration among leading companies. The price system for Feitian Moutai is stabilizing [1][11] - 2025 is expected to be a year for the baijiu industry to solidify its bottom, with the second quarter being particularly critical [1][12] Key Points and Arguments Agriculture Sector - The agricultural sector's performance post the 2025 Central Document is subdued, with traditional agriculture being stable and conservative language regarding genetically modified crops leading to some capital withdrawal [2] Pig Farming Industry - As of late February, the average price of pigs is approximately 14.5 yuan/kg, down about 10% from before the Spring Festival. Leading companies are achieving profits of around 100 yuan per pig, while excellent family farms can achieve profits of 150-200 yuan per pig [4] Pet Food Industry - The potential increase in tariffs on pet food exports to the U.S. is not expected to significantly impact overall profits, as the majority of companies have adapted their production strategies [5] Brand Upgrades in Pet Food - Guobao's Maifudi brand has undergone significant updates, including a shift in product naming and packaging, which may lead to the Buff series becoming a standalone brand [6][7] Baijiu Sector Trends - The baijiu sector is experiencing a recovery in valuation, with a stable price system for key products like Feitian Moutai. The market is expected to stabilize as core products find their positioning [11][12] Pharmaceutical Innovation - The innovative pharmaceutical sector is performing well, with companies like Heng Rui Pharmaceutical expected to launch nearly ten new products in the next two to three years, leading to explosive growth [3][17] - Bai Jie Shen Zhou is expected to achieve profitability in 2025, with significant revenue from its leading product, Zebu Tini [3][18] Investment Recommendations - Recommended stocks include Muyuan Foods and Juxing Agriculture in the pig farming sector, and Heng Rui Pharmaceutical in the pharmaceutical sector. The baijiu sector recommends high-end brands like Moutai and Wuliangye [1][14][17] Other Important Insights - The planting and seed industry requires close monitoring of new genetically modified crop data and U.S.-China trade relations affecting agricultural tariffs [1][10] - The pet food industry is expected to continue its rapid growth trajectory, with significant product launches planned for 2025 [1][9]