Performance Forecast - The company expects a net loss attributable to shareholders of between 1.8 billion and 2.4 billion yuan for the current reporting period, compared to a profit of 716.4 million yuan in the same period last year [1] - The net profit after deducting non-recurring gains and losses is expected to be a loss of between 2.1 billion and 2.7 billion yuan, compared to a profit of 532.24 million yuan last year [1] - The basic earnings per share are projected to be a loss of between 0.2910 yuan and 0.3881 yuan, compared to earnings of 0.1158 yuan in the previous year [1] Reasons for Performance Change - The primary reason for the performance change is the signing of a share purchase agreement with Typewriter Ascend Ltd to sell 100% of Global Sea Containers Ltd (GSCL). The transaction price is below the net asset value of GSCL, indicating goodwill impairment [1] - The company anticipates needing to recognize a goodwill impairment provision of approximately 3.2 billion to 3.4 billion yuan, with the final amount to be disclosed in the 2025 semi-annual report [1] Aircraft Leasing Business - The aircraft market value, leasing rates, and renewal rates remain high due to sustained demand and limited production capacity from aircraft manufacturers [2] - The company completed the acquisition of 100% of Castlelake Aviation Limited and continues to optimize its aircraft asset structure, leading to improved yield levels in its aircraft leasing business [2]

1. Report's Investment Rating for the Industry - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The weighted average trading durations of mainstream bond varieties are approaching their peaks again. As of July 11, the weighted trading durations of urban investment bonds and industrial bonds are at 2.44 years and 3.77 years respectively, both at over 90% quantile levels since March 2021. Among commercial bank bonds, the weighted average trading durations of secondary capital bonds, bank perpetual bonds, and general commercial financial bonds are 4.16 years, 3.74 years, and 2.95 years respectively, with bank perpetual bonds at a relatively low historical level. Among other financial bonds, the durations of securities company bonds, securities subordinated bonds, insurance company bonds, and leasing company bonds are 1.43 years, 1.83 years, 3.56 years, and 1.20 years respectively, with securities company bonds and securities subordinated bonds at relatively low historical quantiles and insurance company bonds at a relatively high historical quantile [10]. - The coupon duration congestion index declined and then slightly increased. After reaching its highest value in March 2024, it dropped and this week decreased slightly compared to last week, currently at the 17.8% level since March 2021 [12]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 All - Variety Duration Overview - As of July 11, the weighted trading durations of urban investment bonds and industrial bonds are 2.44 years and 3.77 years respectively, both at over 90% quantile levels since March 2021. Among commercial bank bonds, the weighted average trading durations of secondary capital bonds, bank perpetual bonds, and general commercial financial bonds are 4.16 years, 3.74 years, and 2.95 years respectively. Among other financial bonds, the durations of securities company bonds, securities subordinated bonds, insurance company bonds, and leasing company bonds are 1.43 years, 1.83 years, 3.56 years, and 1.20 years respectively [2][10]. 3.2 Variety Microscope 3.2.1 Urban Investment Bonds - The weighted average trading duration hovers around 2.44 years. The durations of urban investment bonds in Guangdong prefecture - level cities and Hebei provincial - level are over 5 years, while the trading duration of Shanxi prefecture - level urban investment bonds has shortened to around 1.35 years. The historical quantiles of the durations of urban investment bonds in regions such as Jiangsu prefecture - level cities, Jiangsu district - level, Zhejiang prefecture - level cities, and Chongqing district - level have exceeded 90%. The durations of Hunan provincial - level and Henan prefecture - level urban investment bonds are approaching their highest levels since 2021 [3][16]. 3.2.2 Industrial Bonds - The weighted average trading duration has slightly lengthened compared to last week, generally around 3.77 years. The trading duration of the real - estate industry has shortened to 1.78 years, while that of the public utilities industry has lengthened to 4.62 years. The trading duration of the real - estate industry is at a relatively low historical quantile, while industries such as public utilities, transportation, pharmaceutical biology, commercial retail, and building materials are all at over 90% historical quantiles [3][21]. 3.2.3 Commercial Bank Bonds - The duration of general commercial financial bonds has shortened to 2.95 years, at the 99.1% historical quantile, higher than the level of the same period last year. The duration of secondary capital bonds has shortened to 4.16 years, at the 92.4% historical quantile, higher than the level of the same period last year. The duration of bank perpetual bonds has lengthened to 3.74 years, at the 68.3% historical quantile, higher than the level of the same period last year [3][23]. 3.2.4 Other Financial Bonds - In terms of the weighted average trading duration, insurance company bonds > securities subordinated bonds > securities company bonds > leasing company bonds, at 79%, 23%, 16%, and 68% historical quantiles respectively. The durations of insurance company bonds and securities subordinated bonds have slightly lengthened compared to last week [4][25].

Financing Progress - Avolon Holdings Limited plans to issue a total of $650 million in senior unsecured notes through its wholly-owned subsidiary Avolon Holdings Funding Limited, with a coupon rate of 4.900% and a maturity date of October 10, 2030 [1][2] - The proceeds from the notes will be used for general corporate purposes, including the repayment of future maturing debts [1] Financing Amount Utilization - As of the announcement date, Avolon has utilized $2.195 billion of its authorized loan limit of $10.5 billion for 2025, excluding the current financing amount [2] - The issuance of the senior unsecured notes will fall within the authorized loan limit for 2025, thus not requiring further approval from the board or shareholders [2] Guarantee Progress - Avolon and its subsidiaries will provide joint liability guarantees for the $650 million senior unsecured notes issuance [1][2] - The total guarantee amount provided by Avolon and its subsidiaries for their wholly-owned subsidiaries or SPVs will not exceed $10.5 billion for 2025 [4] Guarantee Amount Utilization - As of the announcement date, Avolon and its subsidiaries have utilized $2.195 billion of the authorized guarantee limit for 2025, excluding the current guarantee [4] - The cumulative guarantee amount provided by the company in the past 12 months is approximately ¥5.83 billion, with specific amounts detailed for various subsidiaries [5]

Group 1: Financial Performance - In 2024, Yuexiu Leasing achieved operating income of CNY 5.989 billion, a year-on-year increase of 39.00% [1] - Net profit reached CNY 1.632 billion, growing by 17.74% year-on-year [1] - The company distributed cash dividends totaling CNY 8.50 billion, with a cash dividend rate of 37.04% for 2024 [6] Group 2: Business Strategy - Yuexiu Leasing is focusing on a "financing leasing + new energy" dual-driven strategy, significantly enhancing its green transformation [1] - The company has invested CNY 23.402 billion in new energy projects in 2024, with a total installed capacity of household photovoltaic systems reaching 11.72 GW by the end of the year [2] - The company is exploring high-end equipment and emerging business areas to diversify its asset structure [1] Group 3: Green Energy Initiatives - The household photovoltaic installed capacity increased from 10.60 GW in June 2024 to 11.77 GW by June 2025, representing an approximate growth of 85% [2] - Electricity revenue from photovoltaic business reached CNY 3.069 billion, a remarkable year-on-year growth of 552% [2] - The company is enhancing operational efficiency and asset returns through standardized and systematic development of new energy products [3] Group 4: Investment Strategy - In the first half of 2025, the investment business saw significant returns by collaborating with leading companies in aerospace, automotive, integrated circuits, and artificial intelligence [5] - The company is actively exploring H-share IPOs and private placements to enhance performance stability [5] - A dual return mechanism of "defensive + growth" has been established through investments in high-dividend quality assets [5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [6] Core Views - The supply of aircraft is slightly improving, with Boeing and Airbus delivering a total of 320 aircraft in 2Q25, up from 266 in 1Q25. The company delivered 13 aircraft in 2Q25, an increase from 11 in 1Q25, but sold 14 aircraft, resulting in a decrease in owned aircraft to 441 [1][2][3] - The company expects a core ROE of 10.6% for 2025, roughly in line with 10.5% in 2024, indicating stable performance despite potential challenges in the debt market due to fluctuating U.S. Treasury rates [1][4] Summary by Sections Supply Chain Improvement - The report highlights that the recovery of aircraft manufacturers' capacity is crucial for the company's performance. The increase in aircraft deliveries is expected to positively impact leasing rates and ROE if the trend continues [2] Fleet Management - In 2Q25, the company executed 75 transactions, including the delivery of 13 aircraft and the sale of 14 aircraft, leading to a net decrease in owned aircraft. The average age of sold aircraft was 10.4 years, which is higher than the overall fleet average of 5 years. The company maintains a strong order book with 351 aircraft on order [3] Financial Projections - The company forecasts a net profit of USD 702.62 million for 2025, with a slight decrease from 2024. The target price is set at HKD 82, based on a 1.06x 2025E PB ratio [5][10]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the US stock market is "Underperform" and maintained [4] - The investment rating for the US dollar bond market is "Underperform" [1] 2. Core Views - The passage of the "Big Beautiful Act" will increase the US medium - and long - term fiscal pressure. The act, a tax reform bill, includes reducing corporate taxes, cutting social welfare, canceling clean energy subsidies, and increasing the national debt scale. It may further expand the US fiscal pressure [1] - The June non - farm payroll data shows resilience, but structural issues need attention. The labor market remains resilient overall, but the increase in government employment is unsustainable, and the resilience of the non - farm data is still to be observed, with a risk of weakening in the future [2] - The derivatives market maintains the expectation of two interest rate cuts in September and December. The strong non - farm payroll data has increased the possibility of the Fed continuing to wait and see and reduced the probability of an interest rate cut this month [2] - The US Treasury bond interest rate first decreased and then increased, and the term spread narrowed slightly. It is recommended that investors mainly allocate short - and medium - term US Treasury bonds, preferably 2 - 5 - year varieties, and be cautious about allocating long - duration bonds [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 US Treasury Bond Benchmark Interest Rate - The US Treasury bond interest rate curve first decreased and then increased in the past two weeks. The 1 - year/2 - year/3 - year/5 - year/10 - year/20 - year/30 - year US Treasury bond interest rates changed by - 3/-6/-5/-4/-3/-2/-2bp respectively. The 10Y and 2Y yields were 4.35% and 3.88% respectively, and the 10Y - 2Y spread narrowed slightly to 47bp [3] 3.2 US Macroeconomic and Liquidity - June non - farm employment increased by 147,000, far exceeding market expectations. Private employment decreased by 33,000, the first decline since March 2023. The unemployment rate dropped to 4.1%, lower than expected. The non - farm data for April and May was revised up by 16,000 [2] - The derivatives market expects two interest rate cuts in September and December. The probability of the federal funds rate remaining unchanged in July is 95%, the probability of a 25 - basis - point cut is 5%, the probability of a cut in September is 73%, and the probability of a total 50 - bp cut by December is 90% [2] 3.3 Exchange Rate - No specific analysis content is provided in the given text, only chart information about non - US currency trends, Sino - US sovereign bond spreads, etc. 3.4 Overseas US Dollar Bonds - The US Treasury bond yield increased in the past week, mainly affected by the strong June non - farm payroll data. The passage of the "Big Beautiful Act" is expected to add $3.4 trillion in deficits to the US in the next decade, which may put upward pressure on the medium - and long - term US Treasury bond yields [3] 3.5 Chinese - Issued US Dollar Bonds - In the past two weeks, the three major international rating agencies took 7 rating actions on Chinese - issued US dollar bond issuers, including 2 upgrades, 1 downgrade, 3 initial ratings, and 1 rating withdrawal [93] 3.6 Rating Actions - In the past two weeks, there were 7 rating actions on Chinese - issued US dollar bond issuers by three major international rating agencies. For example, on July 6, 2025, Fitch gave an initial rating of BBB - to Minsheng Commercial Bank International Holdings Co., Ltd.; on June 26, 2025, Fitch downgraded Longfor Group Holdings Limited from BB to BB - [93][94]

Group 1: Work Hours and Consumer Behavior - Since 2018, China's average weekly working hours have increased to 48.3 hours, which is 21 minutes more per day compared to 2018[3] - The time residents spend on purchasing goods and services has decreased from 80 minutes per day to 43 minutes per day[3] - The most significant "involution" is observed in the manufacturing and productive service sectors, while real estate and life service industries have seen a reduction in working hours[3][4] Group 2: Employment Trends Among Age Groups - The most pronounced "involution" trend is among young people, with an average increase of over 4 hours in weekly working hours over the past five years[4] - For the age group 25-34, weekly working hours increased from 46.7 hours in 2018 to 50.8 hours in 2023[4] - In contrast, individuals aged 55 and above have seen a decrease in working hours by 2.3 hours during the same period[4] Group 3: Policy Recommendations and Economic Rebalancing - Current policies encourage flexible work arrangements and paid leave to address "involution," but these measures primarily target symptoms rather than root causes[5] - The imbalance in employment distribution between manufacturing and service sectors is identified as a core issue, with tariffs potentially facilitating a shift from manufacturing to services[5] - The life service sector has the capacity to absorb labor from the manufacturing sector, as it has seen a 7 percentage point increase in employment share over the past two decades[5][6] Group 4: Service Sector Growth and Consumer Demand - The life service sector's wage growth (18.1%) has outpaced that of manufacturing (10.7%) and productive services (12.4%), indicating a labor shortage in the service sector[6] - There is a significant gap of approximately 1.5 trillion yuan in service employment compared to value-added, suggesting a need for more jobs in this sector[6] - As urbanization increases and GDP per capita rises, service consumption is expected to grow, with a projected annual increase of 0.6% in service consumption share as urbanization reaches 70%[6][7]

Group 1 - The phenomenon of "involution" is most pronounced among young people, with average weekly working hours increasing by over 4 hours in the past five years. The average weekly working hours for employees aged 25-34 rose from 46.7 hours in 2018 to 50.8 hours in 2023 [3][28] - The average daily working time in China increased by 21 minutes from 2018 to 2023, reaching 48.3 hours per week, while the time spent on purchasing goods and services dropped from 80 minutes per day to 43 minutes per day [2][9] - The "involution" trend is particularly evident in the manufacturing and productive service sectors, while the real estate and life service sectors have seen a decrease in working hours [2][21] Group 2 - Current policies to combat "involution" focus on encouraging flexible work arrangements and paid leave, but these measures primarily address symptoms rather than the root causes of prolonged working hours [4][35] - The root cause of "involution" is the uneven distribution of employment across industries, with excessive employment in manufacturing leading to "involution" and insufficient employment in the service sector [4][48] - There is a significant employment gap in the life service sector, with a potential to absorb more jobs, as the wage growth in this sector (18.1%) outpaces that of manufacturing (10.7%) [5][61] Group 3 - The long-term direction for combating "involution" involves aligning supply structures with changing demand structures, particularly as consumer demand trends towards services [6][85] - Global experiences indicate that as GDP per capita reaches between $10,000 and $30,000 and urbanization rates hit 70%, the proportion of service consumption in total consumption increases by approximately 0.6% annually [6][86] - The aging population is expected to drive service consumption, with each 1% increase in the aging rate correlating with a 1.3% increase in service consumption share [6][93]

Group 1 - A new company named Urumqi Xiangyuan Green Logistics Technology Co., Ltd. has been established with a registered capital of 3 million yuan [1] - The legal representative of the company is Deng Yongfei, and its business scope includes leasing services and road freight transportation [1] - The company is wholly owned by Wuhan Tianyuan (301127) through indirect shareholding [1]

Group 1 - The company has extended the principal repayment of the bond "18 渤金 01" to June 20, 2026, with an interest rate of 4% during the extension period [1][2][3] - The original coupon rate for the first three years was 7%, and the interest will be paid annually [2][3] - The bond interest payment will be made to all registered bondholders as of June 19, 2025, through the designated bank account of China Securities Depository and Clearing Corporation [3][4] Group 2 - The company is responsible for ensuring that the interest payment funds are transferred to the designated bank account on time; failure to do so will result in the company handling the payment process independently [4] - Individual bondholders are subject to a 20% personal income tax on the interest earned from the bond, with tax withholding managed by the payment network [5] - Foreign institutional investors are temporarily exempt from corporate income tax and value-added tax on bond interest income until December 31, 2025, under specific conditions [5]