2025.05. 16 作者 | 第一财经 截至午间收盘，沪指跌0.52%，深成指涨0.08%，创业板指涨0.16%。 盘面上看，PEEK材料、可控核聚变、小米汽车、工业母机、人形机器人等板块涨幅居前；保险、种 业、物流、美容护理等板块跌幅居前。 个股涨多跌少，全市场近3300只个股上涨。 | 全A | 涨 3297 | 平 216 | 跌 1897 | A股成? | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 序号 代码 | 名称 | 现价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | | 1 | 000001 上证指数 | 3363.32 | -17.50 | -0.52% | | 2 | 399001 深证成指 | 10194.21 | 7.76 | 0.08% | | 3 | 05ENF 050668 | 1424.02 | 8.55 | 0.60% | | 4 | 881001 万得全A | 5109.39 | 0.27 | 0.01% | | 5 | 000688 科创50 | 995.06 | -5.91 | -0.59% | | 6 | 399006 创业板指 | 2046.44 | 3. ...

Core Insights - The sports footwear and apparel industry demonstrates resilience amid a sluggish global economic recovery and differentiated consumer demand, outperforming other sectors [1][2] - The analysis includes 19 brands/groups, primarily publicly listed companies, with revenue data for the 2024 calendar year, adjusted for fiscal year discrepancies and currency fluctuations [1][2] Global Market Overview - Total global revenue for the 18 brands/groups in 2024 is approximately $183.61 billion, reflecting a 3.78% increase from 2023 [8] - Nike and Adidas remain the dominant players, while Lululemon has surged to third place, surpassing Puma and VF Corporation [6][7] - The industry structure remains stable, with a leading tier of Nike and Adidas, followed by a growing middle tier including Decathlon, Anta, VF, and Lululemon [7][8] Chinese Market Insights - The total revenue for the Chinese market is estimated at around $37 billion for 2024, with an 8.8% year-over-year growth, outpacing global growth [14] - Anta Group leads the Chinese market, with significant contributions from its multi-brand strategy, while Nike retains the top position for single-brand revenue [14][15] - The competitive landscape in China features intense rivalry among brands like Anta, Li Ning, Adidas, and FILA, with Puma also showing growth [14][15] Growth Drivers - Running remains the highest growth segment in the sports footwear and apparel industry, with brands like HOKA and On experiencing significant revenue increases [15][16] - Outdoor brands, particularly those appealing to the middle class, are also thriving, driven by a shift in consumer identity and preferences [16] Future Considerations - The industry faces challenges related to brand positioning in either stock or incremental competition, necessitating strategic decisions on growth potential and market dynamics [17] - Established brands are undergoing transformations while new entrants must navigate consumer expectations and market integration [17]

每经记者｜舒冬妮 孙宇婷 每经编辑｜文多 运动鞋服仍是一个保持着增长的行业，但当行业增速从20%降至约10%，存量用户的深度运营则成为了 关键胜负手。 因此，运动品牌纷纷寻求差异化路径打破行业僵局：阿迪达斯尝试潮流破圈，"lululemon"深耕瑜伽社 群，跑鞋品牌"HOKA ONE ONE"（以下简称"HOKA"）试图以"体验经济"置换传统货架，"On"（昂 跑）则发力专业马拉松与可持续科技。 以HOKA为例，公司最近在上海新天地开设了全球首家品牌体验中心。HOKA母公司Deckers Brands全 球总裁兼首席执行官Stefano Caroti近日还专程来到上海，为这间体验中心剪彩，并强调"中国一直是最 重要的市场之一"。HOKA中国事业部总经理吴萧，也特别强调了品牌体验中心的意义。 运动品牌同质化竞争新解法 中国户外市场正经历前所未有的高速增长，机构预测，2025年中国运动服饰市场规模将突破6000亿元， 同比增速超10%。 虽然市场前景广阔，但行业里再难出现凭借一个爆款就"多年不愁"的通吃打法。当下，消费者对新鲜感 的需求倒逼运动品牌持续升级，尝试各类"差异化"打法抢占消费者心智。 HOKA提出的以 ...

Group 1: Monetary Policy Measures - The People's Bank of China announced a comprehensive monetary policy package consisting of ten measures to support market stability and expectations [4] - Key measures include a 0.5 percentage point reduction in the reserve requirement ratio, expected to provide approximately 1 trillion yuan in long-term liquidity [4] - The policy interest rate was lowered by 0.1 percentage points, with the 7-day reverse repurchase rate decreasing from 1.5% to 1.4%, likely leading to a similar decline in the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) [4] Group 2: Consumer Finance Support - The People's Bank of China is set to issue guiding documents to enhance consumer finance services, with a focus on sectors like accommodation, dining, and entertainment [6] - A special action plan was released in Guangdong to promote consumption, including a 500 billion yuan re-loan for service consumption and elderly care [6][7] Group 3: Automotive Industry Regulations - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology is working on mandatory safety standards for automotive door handles to enhance safety and standardization in vehicle design [5] Group 4: Electric Vehicle Industry Developments - Zeekr became one of the first companies to receive certification under the new national standard for electric vehicle batteries, indicating compliance with upcoming safety regulations [8] - Other companies like Lantu and Geely also announced they received similar certifications, highlighting a trend towards improved safety standards in the EV sector [8] Group 5: Corporate Actions in the Automotive Sector - Geely announced intentions to privatize Zeekr and delist it from the New York Stock Exchange, aiming to consolidate its automotive business and enhance innovation capabilities [9] Group 6: IPO Activity - CATL is on track for a significant IPO in Hong Kong, potentially raising between 4 billion to 5 billion USD, marking the largest IPO in the region in four years [10] Group 7: Real Estate Market Trends - Guangzhou's real estate market is experiencing a resurgence, with significant increases in visitor numbers and property transactions during the recent holiday period [11][12] Group 8: Financial Sector Reforms - Guangdong's rural credit system is undergoing reforms to establish a rural commercial bank, with a focus on improving management and governance [13] Group 9: Commodity Price Impact - Major chocolate brands like Mars and Ferrero are planning price increases due to rising cocoa prices, with Mars products seeing price hikes between 4.9% and 15% [14][15] Group 10: Corporate Acquisition - Skechers has accepted a buyout offer from 3G Capital, valuing the company at over 9 billion USD, amid pressures from trade tensions and performance challenges [16]

Investment Rating - The industry maintains a rating of "Buy" for key companies such as Anta Sports, Tabo, and Bosideng, with a recommendation to focus on high-quality brands and companies with strong fundamentals [5][10][28]. Core Insights - Puma's Q1 2025 performance met expectations, with revenue growth of 0.1% year-on-year to €2.076 billion, while net profit saw a significant decline of 99.5% to €500,000 due to global economic fluctuations, particularly in the US and China [1][15]. - The report emphasizes the resilience of the sportswear sector, projecting a revenue growth of 4.4% and a net profit decline of only 0.6% for key apparel companies in 2024, with a stronger recovery anticipated in 2025 [4][26]. - The DTC (Direct-to-Consumer) business showed robust growth, with a 12% increase in revenue to €550 million, while wholesale revenue declined by 3.6% [3][20]. Summary by Sections Puma's Q1 2025 Performance - Revenue increased by 0.1% to €2.076 billion, with a slight decline in gross margin by 0.6 percentage points to 47% [1][15]. - Operating profit fell by 63.7% to €6 million, and net profit dropped by 99.5% to €500,000, attributed to economic volatility [1][15]. - Inventory rose by 16.3% to €2.08 billion, mainly due to increased in-transit stock [1][15]. Regional and Business Model Analysis - EMEA region revenue grew by 5.1% to €890 million, while the Americas saw a decline of 2.7% to €750 million, primarily due to a 11.1% drop in North America [2][20]. - The Asia-Pacific region experienced a 4.7% decline to €430 million, with a notable 17.7% drop in Greater China [2][20]. - The company is adapting to US tariff issues by optimizing product sourcing and reallocating production [2][20]. DTC and Wholesale Business Performance - DTC revenue increased by 12% to €550 million, with e-commerce growing by 17.3% and self-operated retail stores by 8.9% [3][20]. - Wholesale revenue decreased by 3.6% to €1.53 billion, driven by weak demand in the US and China [3][20]. Industry Outlook - The report suggests focusing on brands with solid fundamentals and anticipating a recovery in 2025, with the sportswear sector expected to benefit from government policies and increased consumer participation in sports [4][26]. - Recommendations include companies like Anta Sports, Tabo, and Bosideng, which are projected to have strong earnings growth and attractive valuations [28][29].

Investment Rating - The industry maintains a rating of "Buy" for key companies such as Anta Sports, Tabo, and others, indicating a positive outlook for investment opportunities [10][29]. Core Insights - Puma's Q1 2025 performance met expectations, with revenue growth of 0.1% year-on-year to €2.076 billion, while net profit saw a significant decline of 99.5% to €500,000 due to global economic fluctuations, particularly in the US and China [1][15]. - The report emphasizes a focus on robust fundamentals and high-quality brands in the apparel and home textiles sector, anticipating performance recovery and valuation improvement in 2025 [4][26]. - The sportswear segment is expected to benefit from national policy support and increased participation in sports, with a projected revenue growth of 8.7% for key companies in 2024 [4][26]. Summary by Sections Regional and Business Model Analysis - In Q1 2025, EMEA region revenue grew by 5.1% to €890 million, while the Americas saw a decline of 2.7% to €750 million, primarily due to an 11.1% drop in North America [2][20]. - The Asia-Pacific region experienced a 4.7% revenue decline to €430 million, largely attributed to a 17.7% drop in Greater China sales [2][20]. Business Performance - Wholesale revenue decreased by 3.6% to €1.53 billion, while Direct-to-Consumer (DTC) revenue increased by 12% to €550 million, with e-commerce growing by 17.3% [3][22]. - DTC revenue now accounts for 26.3% of total revenue, up 2.8 percentage points year-on-year [3][22]. Key Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies with strong fundamentals, such as Anta Sports and Tabo, which have shown significant revenue growth in Q1 2025 [28]. - Other recommended companies include Hailan Home, which is expanding its business successfully, and Bosideng, which is expected to achieve good performance in FY2025 [28][29]. - In the home textiles sector, Luolai Life is highlighted for its strong performance, with a projected net profit growth of 20% in 2025 [28][29].

Core Viewpoint - Skechers, the world's third-largest athletic shoe retailer, is facing significant challenges due to new U.S. tariff policies, leading to its decision to go private as a strategic move to escape short-term market pressures and focus on long-term growth [6][10][20] Group 1: Market Context and Challenges - The announcement of Skechers' privatization has caused market turbulence, with its stock price initially surging nearly 25% following a cash acquisition offer from 3G Capital at $63 per share [1][10] - The U.S. government's new tariff policies are expected to increase the tax rate on children's shoes to between 20%-37%, potentially raising overall industry tax rates to 150%-220%, which is unsustainable for low-margin brands like Skechers [7][8] - The footwear sales in the U.S. saw a significant decline of 26.2% year-on-year in Q1 2025, indicating a severe suppression of non-essential consumer demand [7][8] Group 2: Financial Performance and Strategic Decisions - Despite a 7.1% year-on-year revenue growth to $2.41 billion in Q1 2025, Skechers' stock had dropped 26.58% year-to-date before the privatization announcement, highlighting the pressure from market expectations [10][9] - The privatization will provide Skechers with increased cash reserves, allowing for strategic adjustments without the immediate pressure of public market performance [10][20] Group 3: Strategic Focus Post-Privatization - Post-privatization, Skechers aims to restructure its supply chain, reduce reliance on Chinese production, and enhance its manufacturing presence in Vietnam and Indonesia [11][20] - The company plans to innovate its product offerings to create differentiation in the market, particularly against functional brands like Hoka and On [11][20] - A shift towards a direct-to-consumer (DTC) sales model is also planned, which includes closing inefficient retail stores and increasing e-commerce sales [13][20] Group 4: Competitive Landscape in China - Skechers faces intense competition in the Chinese market from local brands like Anta and Li-Ning, which have successfully captured market share through diverse product strategies and cultural marketing [15][16][18] - The brand's sales in the Asia-Pacific region fell by 3% in Q1 2025, indicating challenges in maintaining growth in this critical market [15][16] - The ongoing price competition from international brands like Adidas and Nike further complicates Skechers' position, as these companies have adopted aggressive pricing strategies to penetrate lower-tier markets [17][18] Group 5: Future Outlook and Conditions for Success - The effectiveness of Skechers' privatization strategy will depend on three key factors: the resource integration capabilities of 3G Capital, the brand's resilience through product innovation, and the potential shifts in tariff negotiations [20][22] - The company's ability to navigate the complexities of global trade policies and adapt its capital structure will be crucial for its long-term survival and competitiveness [22]

星标 ★ IPO日报 精彩文章第一时间推送 最近，作为全球第三大运动鞋零售商、两度入选《财富》500强的斯凯奇（SKECHERS），其退市消息于2025年5 月空降微博热搜，引发市场震动。 这家凭借 "平价舒适" 定 位在全球鞋类市场占据一席之地的巨头，在上市二十余年后选择私有化的背后，似乎 剑指"美国关税政策"。 来源： 天猫 旗舰店 3G溢价收购 2025年4月25日，斯凯奇发布的一季度财报成为退市导火索： 中国市场销售额同比下滑16%，全球营业利润下降 11.3%，创下新的季度营销纪录，同时，该公司取消了今年的业绩指引，原因是美国的全球贸易战颠覆了企业的 计划。 公司撤回全年业绩指引，斯凯奇在一份声明中称："由于全球贸易政策带来的宏观经济不确定性，公司目前不提供 财务指导，并撤回我们在2025年2月6日发布的2025年年度指引。" 同时，斯凯奇在SEC文件中明确警示，全球贸易政策变动对其业务构成重大风险。 斯凯奇称，美国市场占斯凯奇 全球销售额的38%，但其进口产品超六成来自中国、越南等亚洲国家。关税政策导致采购成本大幅攀升，挤压利 润率。 斯凯奇表示，关税推高终端价格，削弱价格竞争力，可能会减少消费者 ...

最近，作为全球第三大运动鞋零售商、两度入选《财富》500强的斯凯奇（SKECHERS），其退市消息于2025年5月空降微博热搜，引发市场 震动。 2025年4月25日，斯凯奇发布的一季度财报成为退市导火索：中国市场销售额同比下滑16%，全球营业利润下降11.3%，创下新的季度营销 纪录，同时，该公司取消了今年的业绩指引，原因是美国的全球贸易战颠覆了企业的计划。 公司撤回全年业绩指引，斯凯奇在一份声明中称："由于全球贸易政策带来的宏观经济不确定性，公司目前不提供财务指导，并撤回我们在 2025年2月6日发布的2025年年度指引。" 同时，斯凯奇在SEC文件中明确警示，全球贸易政策变动对其业务构成重大风险。斯凯奇称，美国市场占斯凯奇全球销售额的38%，但其进 口产品超六成来自中国、越南等亚洲国家。关税政策导致采购成本大幅攀升，挤压利润率。 斯凯奇表示，关税推高终端价格，削弱价格竞争力，可能会减少消费者需求并影响销量。财报显示，2025年一季度，斯凯奇美国市场增速 (6.9%)已落后于国际市场(7.2%)。 4月29日，斯凯奇联合NIKE（耐克）、ADIDAS（阿迪达斯）等76家美国鞋企向白宫联名致信，要求豁免 " ...

Core Viewpoint - Skechers has accepted a premium acquisition offer from 3G Capital amid increasing global trade tensions, with the deal valued at over $9 billion, representing a 30% premium over the stock's recent trading price [1][3]. Group 1: Acquisition Details - 3G Capital will acquire all outstanding shares of Skechers at $63 per share in cash, with an option for existing shareholders to receive $57 per share plus non-transferable equity in a newly formed parent company [3]. - Following the acquisition, Skechers will delist from the NYSE and operate as a private company, maintaining its headquarters, management, and core strategies, with founder Robert Greenberg continuing as Chairman and CEO [3]. - The transaction is expected to close in the third quarter of 2025 [3]. Group 2: Business Context and Risks - The acquisition timing is closely linked to changes in trade policies, as Skechers withdrew its full-year guidance for 2025 due to economic uncertainties stemming from global trade policies [4]. - Skechers has indicated that over 60% of its imported products come from Asia, making it vulnerable to rising procurement costs due to tariffs, which have pressured profit margins [4][5]. - The company reported a 16% year-over-year decline in sales in key markets like China, attributed to the rise of local brands and tariff pressures [5][6]. Group 3: Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, Skechers reported revenue of $2.41 billion, a 7.1% increase year-over-year, but net profit decreased by 2.0% to $202.4 million [6][8]. - The gross margin for Q1 2025 was 52%, down 0.5 percentage points from the previous year, reflecting challenges in maintaining pricing power amid rising costs [6][7]. - Sales growth varied by region, with Europe, the Middle East, and Africa seeing a 14% increase, while the Americas grew by 8%, and the Asia-Pacific region experienced a 3% decline, primarily due to the significant drop in China [8][9].