预加工食品 2025 年 08 月 26 日 公 司 研 究 安井食品（603345.SH） 特通新零售渠道表现亮眼，盈利能力阶段性承压 公 司 事件：公司披露 2025 年中报：报告期内公司实现营收 76.04 亿元，同比 +0.80%；归母净利润 6.76 亿元，同比-15.79%；扣非归母净利润 6.03 亿元， 同比-21.85%；其中，24Q2 实现营收 40.05 亿元，同比+5.69%；归母净利 润 2.81 亿元，同比-22.74%；扣非归母净利润 2.6 亿元，同比-26.11%。此 外，公司拟派发中期红利 1.425 元/股（含税），共计 4.73 亿元，占公司 25H1 归母净利润 70.02%。 财 报 点 评 销售表现整体平稳，新零售渠道持续高增。分品类看，25Q2 公司速冻 调制食品/菜肴/面米/农副产品分别实现收入 17.50/15.80/5.83/0.87 亿元，同 比-1.4%/+26.05%/-10.78%/-4.85%；菜肴业务高增推测主要系小龙虾业务推 动。分渠道看，25Q2 公司经销商/特通直营/商超/新零售及电商渠道分别实 现收入 31.34/3.28/1.52/3 ...

Core Viewpoint - The stock price of Dongfang Zhenxuan (01797.HK) experienced significant volatility, initially rising over 23% before closing down 20.89% due to rumors regarding CEO Zhou Chenggang and commission rates exceeding 30%, which were later denied by the company [2]. Group 1: Stock Performance - Dongfang Zhenxuan's stock price increased by 502% from a low of 8.92 HKD on December 31, 2024, to 53.7 HKD [3]. - The stock price surge was driven by optimistic market expectations regarding the company's recent positive developments [2]. Group 2: Financial Performance - For the fiscal year 2025 Q4, Dongfang Zhenxuan's revenue is projected to be approximately 150 million USD, reflecting a nearly 30% year-over-year decline, although the decline is narrowing quarter-over-quarter [2]. - The company's operating profit under non-GAAP is estimated at 79 million RMB, with an operating profit margin of about 7%, showing a quarter-over-quarter increase of approximately 3% [2]. - The company's net revenue from ongoing operations (self-operated products and live-streaming e-commerce) decreased by 9.3% year-over-year [5]. Group 3: Business Strategy and Challenges - Dongfang Zhenxuan is focusing on self-operated products and supply chain development, aligning with new consumption trends and offering expansion opportunities [3]. - The company is attempting to shift from a host-driven model to a product-driven model, but is still facing challenges due to the departure of several key hosts [5]. - The company needs to establish an effective host team and brand operation model to improve profitability expectations [5]. - In the e-commerce retail sector, Dongfang Zhenxuan faces challenges such as maintaining a high-frequency but low-margin product line, improving supply chain efficiency, and developing a membership system comparable to Sam's Club and Costco [5].

2025.08. 20 本文字数：1142，阅读时长大约2分钟 作者 | 第一财经 吕倩 微信编辑 | 苏小 叠加东方甄选持续投入自营品与供应链建设带来的利好影响，浙商证券认为，历经两年波折、公司经 营逐渐走回正轨，自营品发展符合新消费趋势且有拓展空间，均是当下开始关注东方甄选的底层逻 辑。基于此，东方甄选股价从2024年12月31日8.92港元的低点，涨502%至53.7港元。 但由于股价大涨带来的短线资金获利丰厚，据Wind数据，东方甄选卖空股数从7月21日开始上涨，8 月7日达到近半年来的高点。今日卖空股数自7日的582万股降至137万股，未平仓卖空股数3738万 股。 从业绩表现上，虽跌幅收窄，但东方甄选营收仍处下滑区间。据公司2025财年半年报，东方甄选持 续经营业务(自营产品及直播电商业务)净营收同比下滑9.3%。另外，公司虽在尝试由主播驱动向产 品驱动转型，但多位头部主播出走的影响尚在消化期。据第三方机构数据，今年以来，东方甄选销售 额平均值范围为750万元至1000万元，而与辉同行今年以来的销售额平均值范围为2500万元至5000 万元，东方甄选需要尽快建立有效的主播梯队与品牌运营模式，改善公 ...

Group 1 - The stock price of Dongfang Zhenxuan (01797.HK) experienced significant volatility, initially rising over 23% before closing down 20.89% due to rumors regarding CEO Zhou Chenggang's involvement in related party transactions and high commission rates [1] - Dongfang Zhenxuan's actual average commission rate is reported to be below 20%, contrary to claims of it being over 30%, and the company has initiated legal actions against the spread of misinformation [1] - Despite a projected revenue decline of nearly 30% year-on-year for Q4 of FY2025, the company has shown signs of improving profitability, with a non-GAAP operating profit of approximately 79 million RMB and a profit margin increase of about 3% [1] Group 2 - The company has seen a significant stock price increase of 502% from a low of 8.92 HKD on December 31, 2024, to 53.7 HKD, attributed to a recovery in operations and alignment with new consumer trends [2] - Although the stock price surged, short-selling activity increased, peaking at 5.82 million shares on August 7, before dropping to 1.37 million shares, indicating a potential profit-taking by short-term investors [4] - Dongfang Zhenxuan's revenue from its core business segments has declined by 9.3% year-on-year, and the company is facing challenges in transitioning from a host-driven to a product-driven model, particularly due to the departure of key hosts [4]

Summary of Conference Call Industry and Company Involved - The conference call primarily discusses the **agriculture industry**, focusing on the **pet sector** and **livestock farming**, particularly **swine farming** and **pet medical care**. Key Points and Arguments Pet Sector 1. The company has been continuously recommending the **pet sector**, with a recent emphasis on the **breeding sector** as well. The focus includes **pet food** and **pet medical care** [1][8] 2. Recent offline surveys indicate a shift in the pet market towards **fresh food** and **differentiated products**, highlighting the competitive landscape driven by product innovation [9][10] 3. The pet market is currently characterized by high marketing costs and increased competition, necessitating a focus on product quality and consumer education [13][14] 4. Domestic leading brands are gaining traction, particularly in the mid to high-end market segments, despite facing competition from foreign brands [15][16] Livestock Farming 5. The company has started to recommend the **swine farming sector** due to favorable market conditions and stable pig prices, which have remained between **14 to 15 yuan** per kilogram since the Chinese New Year [3][4] 6. There has been a significant increase in the average weight of pigs post-Chinese New Year, with an increase of nearly **8 kilograms**, indicating a positive trend in livestock growth [4] 7. Despite the current stability, there is a bearish outlook on pig prices due to high supply pressures, presenting a potential buying opportunity in the livestock sector [6] Pet Medical Care 8. The pet medical care sector is viewed as having substantial growth potential, with expectations for the market to develop into a **billion-dollar industry** [18][19] 9. The domestic pet medical market is still in its early stages compared to mature markets like the U.S., indicating significant room for growth in pet health management and spending [19] 10. Companies with strong R&D capabilities and a focus on pet vaccines and pharmaceuticals are expected to thrive in the evolving market landscape [20][22] Financial Performance and Projections 11. The company anticipates a **20%** growth rate over the next two to three years, supported by the launch of new products in the pet medical sector [24] 12. Current valuations suggest that the company is trading at less than **18 times** earnings, indicating a favorable investment opportunity [24] Additional Insights 13. Recent policy changes are expected to accelerate trends in the livestock sector, with ongoing adjustments in regulations impacting market dynamics [6][7] 14. The competitive landscape in the pet food market is shifting towards product-driven strategies, with an emphasis on health and premium offerings [11][12] Conclusion The conference call highlights a positive outlook for both the pet and livestock sectors, driven by product innovation, market stability, and favorable growth projections. The emphasis on R&D and adapting to consumer trends is crucial for companies operating in these industries.

Core Viewpoint - Liu Liu Mei, a leading Chinese green plum snack brand, is attempting to go public on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange to alleviate cash flow pressures, following a failed A-share IPO attempt in 2019, raising discussions about its business model [1] Group 1: Marketing Strategy - Liu Liu Mei gained fame through celebrity endorsement strategies, with sales increasing by 316% over three years due to Yang Mi's endorsement and the "Are you okay?" advertising slogan [2] - In 2024, advertising expenses are projected to reach 106 million yuan, accounting for 72% of net profit, with a sales expense ratio of 19.2%, significantly higher than industry averages [2] - The effectiveness of celebrity marketing is declining, as evidenced by backlash from fans during a live broadcast, highlighting the fragility of traffic dividends [2] Group 2: Market Dynamics - Liu Liu Mei holds the largest market share in the green plum snack sector, with a 7% market share in 2024, but faces declining prices for core products: dried plums down 10.7% and frozen plums down 27.9% year-on-year [3] - The green plum and western plum snacks combined account for only 1.3% of the 933 billion yuan leisure food industry, with significant competition from giants like Three Squirrels and Good Products Store, which are engaging in price wars and innovative marketing strategies [3] - In 2024, raw material prices for green plums increased by 8.3%, leading to a 7.5 percentage point decline in gross margin to 32.1% due to pricing strategies [3] Group 3: Financial Position - As of February 2025, Liu Liu Mei has only 51.04 million yuan in cash and short-term borrowings of 310 million yuan, prompting a pre-IPO buyback of 135 million yuan in shares from A-round investors [4] - The IPO is viewed as a means of survival rather than expansion, with the company needing to demonstrate a shift from a "traffic-driven" to a "product-driven" model [4] - R&D expenses in 2024 are expected to drop by 43.6%, constituting only 6.1% of sales expenses, significantly below the food industry average of 3%-5% [4]

Core Viewpoint - The 2025 China Bakery New Product Launch Week showcased over 30 new products from more than 20 companies, highlighting a strong industry focus on product-driven innovation and deep interaction among industry players [1][5][107]. Group 1: Event Overview - The event took place from May 19 to May 21, featuring a high-density professional atmosphere with active engagement from attendees [1]. - Over 50 baking brands supported the event online, indicating a broad interest in new product developments [1]. Group 2: Product Highlights - The new products covered various categories, including bread, cakes, and functional breads, reflecting industry changes [5]. - Traditional Chinese ingredients are increasingly integrated into modern baking narratives, with examples like the Garden Bakery's mooncakes featuring local ingredients [6]. - Innovations in texture and flavor combinations were emphasized, with products designed to offer diverse sensory experiences [28]. Group 3: Health and Functionality Trends - The trend towards "healthy baking" is evident, with products focusing on nutritional enhancement rather than just ingredient reduction [51]. - Brands like Ston and Kunyu Mai are leading the way in creating functional baked goods that cater to health-conscious consumers [52]. Group 4: Cross-Industry Integration - The event highlighted the expansion of consumption scenarios, with products designed for afternoon tea and social sharing, moving beyond traditional bread attributes [66]. - Innovative products like coffee-shaped croissants and savory desserts were introduced to attract younger consumers [66]. Group 5: Industrial Standards and Quality - The evolution of industrial standards was showcased by several factory-type enterprises, emphasizing product stability and flavor consistency [90]. - Companies like Zhongbei Egg Tart and Xinmai Foods demonstrated their capabilities in producing high-quality, standardized baked goods suitable for mass distribution [91][92]. Group 6: Industry Insights - The event served as a platform for competition and collaboration among brands, facilitating information exchange and alignment between research, branding, and distribution [107]. - The future of the baking industry will benefit from more dialogue platforms that connect product development with market needs, enhancing consumer engagement [108].

Group 1 - The company's operational strategy is shifting from channel-driven to product-driven, emphasizing a top-down execution of this new philosophy [1] - New product launches for 2025 include unique offerings such as live fish meatballs, creative dumplings, and a fresh packaging series, all aimed at enhancing differentiation and quality [1] - The ongoing acquisition of Dingwei Thai is expected to create synergies, as its high-end cod products and distribution channels complement the company's existing offerings [1] Group 2 - The company has demonstrated resilience in its performance during a generally weak industry backdrop, indicating strong fundamentals as a quality blue-chip stock [2] - Profit forecasts remain stable, with projected net profits for 2025-2027 at 1.62 billion, 1.83 billion, and 1.96 billion yuan, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 9%, 12%, and 7% respectively [2] - The company maintains a "buy" rating based on its robust short-term stability and medium-term growth potential [2]

Core Insights - The health industry is undergoing an unprecedented digital transformation driven by AI technology, as highlighted by the recent launch of the "AI New Engine. Brand New Ecology" strategy by SanSheng (China) [1] - SanSheng aims to integrate AI technology with brand ecology to drive product innovation and market expansion, providing higher quality health solutions for consumers and creating value for market partners [1] Group 1: AI Technology and Industry Transformation - SanSheng's President, Sun Pengbo, emphasized that 2025 will mark the explosion of AI technology, ushering in the "Double I" era of AI technology and IP economy, where industries must adopt "AI+" thinking to avoid obsolescence [2] - The company plans to build a "Personal Economic Dream Factory" ecosystem centered around "AI+IP," leveraging AI digital tools to transition from human-driven to intelligent cohabitation [2][4] - The transformation will occur in three stages: customer acquisition through AI tools, partial replacement of manual operations with AI agents, and deep collaboration between AI and business [4] Group 2: Product-Driven Strategy - SanSheng is committed to a "product-driven" core strategy, focusing on high-quality products that consumers love and trust, while also upgrading its product classification and positioning [5] - The company has invested millions in R&D, collaborating with the China Food Fermentation Industry Research Institute to launch plant-based nutritional products, addressing issues like lactose intolerance [5] - SanSheng's product matrix includes entrepreneurial, technical, and consumer products, with a focus on creating differentiated offerings for various market roles [5] Group 3: Cultural and Brand Innovation - The collaboration between SanSheng's Oriental Cultivation brand and the Putuo Mountain cultural IP represents a shift from functional to cultural empowerment in health products, enhancing brand depth and emotional value [7][8] - This partnership is the first officially authorized plant-based nutritional product collaboration with Putuo Mountain, marking a unique entry in the industry [8] - The successful launch of the "AI New Engine. Brand New Ecology" event signifies the beginning of a new era driven by both "intelligent leadership" and "product-driven" strategies, reshaping the commercial ecosystem of the health industry [8]