碳酸锂期货日报 行业 日期 2025 年 6 月 19 日 研究员：张平 021-60635734 zhangping@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3015713 021-60635729 yufeifei@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3025190 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 有色金属研究团队 研究员：余菲菲 研究员：彭婧霖 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 每日报告 一、 行情回顾与操作建议 数据来源：Wind，建信期货研究发展部 碳酸锂期货冲高回落，总持仓下降 7855 手，盘面近月合约 BACK 结构小幅扩大至 340，现货市场持平，现货电碳略低于盘面 07 价格，澳矿和锂云母矿价持平，磷 酸铁锂价格持平，而三元材料价格受镍钴价格下跌而下跌，上游矿价短期跌势放 缓，若矿价能止跌产业链降价潮将会缓解。当前高库存高供应压力是碳酸锂期货 价难反弹的主要原因，6 月以来锂价跌势放缓但总持仓居高不下，空头力量减弱， 同时在盘面交割利润持续为负的情况下，交易所 ...

Core Insights - Wuhan has launched a three-year action plan and policy measures to accelerate the development of the humanoid robot industry, aiming to establish itself as a national hub for humanoid robot sensors, application scenarios, and smart manufacturing [1][2] - The plan includes the establishment of a 1 billion yuan investment fund for the humanoid robot industry and a 10 billion yuan mother fund for artificial intelligence in Hubei province, with a focus on fostering innovation and supporting enterprises [1][2] - The humanoid robot industry in Wuhan is expected to grow significantly, with a compound annual growth rate of over 40% in the artificial intelligence sector over the past five years, leading to a related industry scale exceeding 500 billion yuan [2][3] Investment and Funding - Wuhan will guide the establishment of a 1 billion yuan investment fund specifically for the humanoid robot industry and participate in a 10 billion yuan provincial fund [1] - The government will implement a fault-tolerance system for guiding funds, allowing for a maximum 100% loss on individual projects in seed and angel investments [1] - Support for leading enterprises in establishing innovation laboratories can reach up to 60 million yuan, while concept verification centers and shared manufacturing platforms can receive up to 10 million yuan [1] Industry Development Goals - The development goals for the humanoid robot industry in Hubei include a phased approach: one year to start, three years to see results, and five years to establish a strong presence [2] - The establishment of the Hubei humanoid robot innovation center and industry alliance aims to create a complete ecosystem from research and development to manufacturing and application [2][3] Market Potential - According to research from the China Academy of Information and Communications Technology, humanoid robots are expected to become a new terminal market worth trillions, following personal computers, smartphones, and new energy vehicles [3] - The industry is positioned as a new wave of industrial development, with Wuhan aiming to take a leading role in this emerging sector [3]

Group 1 - Lithium prices have been continuously declining this year, leading to efficiency improvement becoming the main theme of the industry [1][2] - Yahua Group announced the establishment of Yahua Lithium Industry Group to integrate its lithium business, aiming to enhance operational efficiency and reduce coordination costs [1][2] - The integration involves five subsidiaries, including major lithium salt production bases, which accounted for nearly half of Yahua Group's revenue last year [1] Group 2 - The stock integration is intended to expand the development space of the lithium business and promote rapid and high-quality growth [2] - Lithium prices have been fluctuating around 60,000 yuan/ton since breaking below that threshold in late May, down from a high of 77,000 yuan/ton earlier this year [2] - Lithium companies are under pressure to improve efficiency, with Yahua Group implementing measures to optimize customer structure and manage procurement [3] Group 3 - Ganfeng Lithium has multiple self-owned resource projects that are cost-advantaged in the long term, which helps mitigate the impact of declining lithium prices [4] - The lithium market is expected to remain in a bottoming phase, with potential for price rebounds but also risks of further declines [4] - Industry experts suggest that a turnaround may require key catalysts such as production cuts from large mines or increased downstream demand [4]

Group 1 - The sixth meeting of the sixth supervisory board of Sichuan Yahua Industrial Group Co., Ltd. was held on June 17, 2025, in compliance with relevant regulations [1][2] - The supervisory board approved the proposal for the integration of lithium business company equity into Yahua Lithium Industry Group, which is expected to enhance the development momentum of the lithium industry and promote independent operation and rapid growth [1][2] - The equity integration will occur within the scope of the company's consolidated financial statements, ensuring no adverse impact on the company's financial status and operating results, and will not harm the interests of the company and all shareholders [1][2] Group 2 - The voting result for the proposal was three votes in favor, with no votes against or abstentions [2] - The announcement was made by the supervisory board of Sichuan Yahua Industrial Group Co., Ltd. [2]

Core Viewpoint - The adjustment of the public transfer price for the 100% equity of Baiyin Zabuyé Lithium Industry Co., Ltd. by Tibet Mining reflects the challenges and strategic considerations the company faces in the current lithium industry environment [1][2]. Group 1: Company Actions - Tibet Mining announced a reduction in the transfer price of Baiyin Zabuyé from 197 million yuan to 177 million yuan, a decrease of 10% [1]. - The initial transfer attempt in October 2024 failed to attract qualified buyers, prompting the company to reassess its strategy [1][2]. - The transfer of Baiyin Zabuyé is part of Tibet Mining's efforts to optimize its asset structure and reduce investment risks amid a declining lithium market [2][3]. Group 2: Industry Context - The lithium industry has experienced significant volatility, transitioning from a supply-demand imbalance to an oversupply situation, leading to a decline in lithium prices [2]. - Tibet Mining's revenue and net profit have both decreased, with lithium product revenue dropping over 40% year-on-year [2]. - The current market sentiment is cautious, with potential buyers being more conservative in their valuations of lithium assets due to the industry's downturn [2][3]. Group 3: Future Implications - The successful transfer of Baiyin Zabuyé would mean it will no longer be included in Tibet Mining's consolidated financial statements, impacting the company's future financial health [2]. - The challenges faced by Tibet Mining, including the need for transformation under the "dual carbon" initiative and the risks associated with its lithium extraction technology, complicate the transfer process [3]. - The outcome of this transfer will significantly influence Tibet Mining's strategic direction in the lithium sector, with market participants closely monitoring developments [3].

Basic Information - Zhejiang Kanglongda Special Protection Technology Co., Ltd. announced the acquisition of 17.67% equity in Jiangxi Tiancheng Lithium Industry Co., Ltd. for RMB 212 million [1][2] - The acquisition includes 11.31% and 6.36% equity from two partners, Yichun Bingwu Tiancheng Management Consulting Center and Yichun Yiyuan Lithium Consulting Center [2] Profit Commitment Agreement - The profit commitment period for Tiancheng Lithium is set for 2022, 2023, and 2024, with net profit targets of RMB 180 million, RMB 200 million, and RMB 210 million respectively [2] - If the actual cumulative net profit does not meet the target, the partners are obligated to provide cash compensation to the company [2] Performance Audit and Compensation Notification - An audit revealed that Tiancheng Lithium achieved a cumulative net profit of RMB 266.68 million from 2022 to 2024, failing to meet the profit commitment [3] - The company issued a compensation notice on April 26, 2025, demanding a total cash compensation of RMB 116.18 million from the partners [3] Progress on Compensation - As of May 26, 2025, the company received RMB 640,000 from Tiancheng Management and RMB 360,000 from Yiyuan Lithium, totaling RMB 1 million in compensation [3][4] - The company continues to urge the partners to fulfill their compensation obligations and is taking legal measures to recover the remaining compensation [4]

智通财经5月23日电，据中国有色金属工业协会锂业分会消息，2025年4月，碳酸锂产量稍有下降，企业 部分产线停产检修，氢氧化锂产量基本持平。需求端，新能源汽车产销延续快速增长态势，动力电池装 机量同比增长。2025年4月，国内碳酸锂价格持续下跌。电池级碳酸锂价格从月初的73800元/吨回落至 月末的67300元/吨，下降8.88%；工业级碳酸锂价格从月初的72100元/吨回落至月末的65700元/吨，下降 8.81%；主力合约收盘价从月初的74240元/吨回落至月末的65680元/吨，下降2.92%，月末期现价差为20 元/吨。 中国有色金属工业协会锂业分会：4月碳酸锂产量稍有下降 氢氧化锂产量基本持平 ...

Core Viewpoint - The lithium industry is currently experiencing a downturn, but leading companies like Tianqi Lithium remain attractive to investors despite the challenges posed by falling lithium salt prices and increased competition [1][2]. Industry Overview - The lithium salt prices have significantly declined, with current prices ranging from 70,000 to 110,000 yuan per ton, down nearly 90% from the peak of 600,000 yuan per ton at the end of 2022, and a 40% decrease compared to the same period last year [1]. - The oversupply in the lithium market began in 2023 due to rapid capacity expansion driven by the price surge in 2021 and 2022, leading to increased competition and pressure on profitability across the industry [1][2]. Company Performance - Tianqi Lithium has managed to turn a profit in the first quarter of 2024, reporting revenue of 2.584 billion yuan and a net profit of 104 million yuan [4]. - The company emphasizes cost reduction, quality improvement, and efficiency enhancement as key strategies to navigate the current market conditions [4]. Resource Management - Tianqi Lithium is unique in the industry for having a 100% self-sufficiency rate in lithium resources, with significant operations in both hard rock lithium and salt lake brine resources [5]. - The Greenbushes lithium spodumene mine in Australia is projected to have a total mining volume of 3.404 million tons in 2024, with a chemical-grade ore extraction of 3.064 million tons at an average grade of 2.1% [5]. - The company is also developing the Zola lithium spodumene mine in Sichuan, which has lithium resources equivalent to 632,400 tons of lithium carbonate [5]. Strategic Initiatives - Tianqi Lithium is actively exploring global lithium resource projects while considering economic feasibility, resource endowment, development costs, and local political environments [6]. - The company is also focused on research and development in next-generation battery materials, including solid-state batteries, and has made significant progress in the industrialization of lithium sulfide, a key material for solid-state batteries [8]. Future Outlook - The company remains optimistic about the long-term growth potential of the lithium battery industry, driven by the demand from electric vehicles and energy storage markets, as well as emerging applications in low-altitude flying vehicles and drones [6][7].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" [1] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights that the lithium industry is expected to see significant production increases from key players such as Ganfeng Lithium, Tianqi Lithium, and others from 2024 to 2026, driven by various projects coming online [3][4] - Ganfeng Lithium is projected to have the highest production capacity in 2025 and 2026, with major contributions from the Goulamina project and several salt lake projects [3] - The report emphasizes the rapid growth in production rates for companies like Yahua Group and Sichuan Energy Power, indicating a robust expansion in the lithium sector [3] Summary by Relevant Sections Production Forecast - Ganfeng Lithium: Expected production of 8.6 million tons LCE in 2025, growing to 11.4 million tons LCE by 2026, with a CAGR of 49% [4] - Tianqi Lithium: Projected to produce 9.3 million tons LCE in 2025, increasing to 10.4 million tons LCE by 2026, with a CAGR of 8% [4] - Yahua Group: Anticipated to ramp up production significantly from 0.5 million tons LCE in 2024 to 3.3 million tons LCE by 2026, reflecting a CAGR of 145% [4] - Other companies like Zhongjin Lingnan and Xizang Mining are also expected to see substantial increases in production, contributing to the overall growth of the industry [3][4]

锂业弹性表2025年5月 行业评级：看好 2025年5月21日 | 分析师 | 沈皓俊 | 分析师 | 王南清 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 邮箱 | shenhaojun@stocke.com.cn | 邮箱 | wangnanqing@stocke.com.cn | | 证书编号 | S1230523080011 | 证书编号 | S1230523100001 | 01 锂业弹性表 预计2025年自有矿权益产量最多的为：天齐锂业，赣锋锂业，中矿资源，华友钴业。 预计2026年自有矿权益产量最多的为：赣锋锂业，天齐锂业，中矿资源，华友钴业。 2024至2026年产量增速较快的为：雅化集团，川能动力，西藏矿业，赣锋锂业，紫金矿业。 增量分析： 2 证券研究报告 添加标题 1）赣锋锂业：未来几年主要增量为Goulamina项目、Cauchari-Olaroz 盐湖、Mariana盐湖项目放量。 2）天齐锂业：未来几年主要增量为格林布什矿山三期扩建，以及SQM产能的扩张。 3）中矿资源：未来几年主要增量为Bikita项目增产。 4）永兴材料：未来几年增量为化山瓷石矿项目扩产建成增产。 ...