Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Report's Core View - The lithium carbonate market is volatile, with potential price increases in the medium - to - long - term due to strong terminal demand for domestic energy storage projects. The polysilicon market is expected to be volatile and slightly stronger in the short - term but with limited upside. The industrial silicon market has a high inventory and weak demand, and its price may decline [1][7][15]. 3. Summary by Commodity Lithium Carbonate - **Market Trend**: The lithium carbonate futures contract 2605 rose 3.89% to 166,740 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day [1]. - **Core Logic**: Although the new energy vehicle sales from January 1st - 11th dropped significantly, the "rush to export" behavior of downstream lithium carbonate enterprises and the resumption of production by some phosphate - iron - lithium enterprises increased demand. On the supply side, some lithium mines in Yichun are facing license replacement and production suspension, causing concerns about supply stability. Most of the inventory is in the hands of traders, and the inventory of smelters and downstream enterprises is low [1]. - **Technical Analysis**: The 5 - minute and overnight 2 - hour cycles of the 2605 contract show certain trends, with a long - short dividing line of 146,200 yuan/ton [1]. - **Strategy Suggestion**: Be cautious in the short - term, wait for the market to stabilize and then buy at low prices. In the long - term, the price center may move up [2][3]. Polysilicon - **Market Trend**: The polysilicon futures contract 2605 fell 1.97% to 49,700 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day [7]. - **Core Logic**: Some leading polysilicon enterprises plan to stop production, and the output in February is expected to decline. The demand is expected to increase due to the increase in the production schedule of cells and components from January to February. However, the market will return to cost - based trading after the anti - monopoly news, and high inventory will suppress prices [7][9]. - **Technical Analysis**: The 5 - minute and overnight 2 - hour cycles of the 2605 contract show certain trends, with a long - short dividing line of 48,670 yuan/ton [9]. - **Strategy Suggestion**: It may be volatile and slightly stronger in the short - term. Pay attention to the subsequent policies of "anti - involution" [10][11]. Industrial Silicon - **Market Trend**: The industrial silicon futures contract 2605 rose 0.40% to 8,780 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day [15]. - **Core Logic**: The supply is decreasing as the southwest production area has a low operating rate and the northwest production area has frequent production - cut news. The demand is weak, and the overall inventory is at a five - year high, so the price may decline [15]. - **Technical Analysis**: The market is controlled by short - sellers. The 5 - minute and overnight 2 - hour cycles of the 2605 contract show certain trends, with a long - short dividing line of 8,605 yuan/ton [15]. - **Strategy Suggestion**: Sell short when the price is high. Refer to the band winner indicator during the 8:30 live broadcast [15].

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - No information provided regarding the industry investment rating 2. Core View of the Report - On January 5, 2026, the lithium carbonate futures 2605 contract rose 7.74% to 129,980 yuan/ton. The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate increased by 1,000 yuan/ton to 119,500 yuan/ton, and the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate rose by 1,500 yuan/ton to 117,000 yuan/ton. The price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (coarse particles) increased by 500 yuan/ton to 110,800 yuan/ton. The warehouse receipt inventory remained at 20,281 tons [3]. - On the supply side, the weekly output increased by 259 tons to 22,420 tons. In January 2026, the lithium carbonate output is expected to decline by 1.2% to 97,970 tons. On the demand side, in January 2026, the output of ternary materials, ternary power batteries, and iron - lithium power batteries is expected to decline, while the iron - lithium energy storage output is expected to increase by 0.99% to 63.15GWh. In terms of inventory, the weekly social inventory of lithium carbonate decreased by 168 tons to 109,605 tons [3]. - Recently, due to overseas geopolitical disturbances, continued domestic stimulus policies, and speculation about solid waste, the lithium price rose significantly. According to preliminary production scheduling data, supply and demand are both weak in January. There is a risk of inventory accumulation, but considering the current inventory structure and the medium - to - long - term trading logic of being bullish on lithium prices, it is believed that there will be restocking demand when prices fall, and prices are more likely to rise than fall [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Price Changes**: The lithium carbonate futures 2605 contract, battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate, and battery - grade lithium hydroxide prices all increased on January 5, 2026, while the warehouse receipt inventory was unchanged [3]. - **Supply - Demand - Inventory Situation**: The weekly supply increased, but the January 2026 output is expected to decline. The demand for most products in January 2026 is expected to decline, except for iron - lithium energy storage. The weekly social inventory decreased [3]. - **Price Outlook**: Short - term terminal demand cannot be falsified, and there is no conclusion on the procurement, sales, pricing mechanism, and processing fees at the cathode end. Considering the inventory structure and long - term bullish logic, the price is likely to rise [3]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - **Futures and Lithium Ore**: The closing prices of the main and continuous contracts of lithium carbonate futures increased, the price of lithium mica increased, and the price of lithium spodumene concentrate decreased. The prices of some other lithium ores remained unchanged [5]. - **Lithium and Lithium Salts**: The prices of battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate, battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium hydroxide increased, and the price of lithium hexafluorophosphate remained unchanged [5]. - **Price Spreads**: The spread between battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate, and between battery - grade lithium hydroxide and battery - grade lithium carbonate decreased, while some other spreads increased [5]. - **Precursors and Cathode Materials**: The prices of various ternary precursors and cathode materials, as well as lithium iron phosphate and lithium manganate, increased, and the price of cobalt acid lithium also increased [5]. - **Lithium Batteries**: The prices of various lithium battery cells and batteries remained unchanged [5]. 3.3 Chart Analysis - **Ore Prices**: The report shows the price trends of lithium spodumene concentrate, different grades of lithium mica, and phospho - lithium - aluminum stone from 2024 to 2026 [6][9]. - **Lithium and Lithium Salt Prices**: It presents the price trends of metal lithium, battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate, battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium hydroxide, and lithium hexafluorophosphate from 2024 to 2026 [12][17]. - **Price Spreads**: The report displays the price spread trends between battery - grade lithium hydroxide and battery - grade lithium carbonate, battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate, and some other spreads from 2024 to 2026 [19][20]. - **Precursors and Cathode Materials**: It shows the price trends of ternary precursors, ternary materials, lithium iron phosphate, lithium manganate, and cobalt acid lithium from 2024 to 2026 [25][30]. - **Lithium Battery Prices**: The report presents the price trends of 523 square ternary cells, square lithium iron phosphate cells, cobalt - acid lithium cells, and square lithium iron phosphate batteries from 2024 to 2026 [32][36]. - **Inventory**: It shows the inventory trends of downstream, smelters, and other links from May 15, 2025, to December 11, 2025 [38][40]. - **Production Costs**: The report displays the production profit trends of lithium carbonate from different raw materials from 2024 to 2026 [43][44].

Group 1 - The Hang Seng Index fell by 0.43%, down 109 points, closing at 25,324 points, while the Hang Seng Tech Index decreased by 0.68% [1] - Lithium carbonate futures for the 2605 contract rose over 3%, reaching a peak of 96,800 yuan/ton, leading to gains in lithium stocks such as Ganfeng Lithium, which increased by 3.16%, and Tianqi Lithium, which rose by over 2% [1] Group 2 - China Tungsten & Hightech Materials Co. remains optimistic about the tungsten price bull market, with Jiexin International Resources rising over 5% [2] - Silver Noble Pharmaceuticals-B surged over 18% after its GLP-1 receptor agonist, Eino Light®, was officially included in insurance coverage [2] - Gold stocks generally rose, with Zijin Mining International increasing by over 4% and Lingbao Gold rising by 9%, supported by multiple factors ahead of the Federal Reserve's decision [2] Group 3 - Baoji Pharmaceutical-B debuted with a significant increase of 124%, as its three core products are set to be commercialized soon [3] Group 4 - China Boton surged over 13% after signing a land acquisition agreement, which will provide cash compensation of 2.272 billion yuan [4] Group 5 - Red Star Macalline rose over 6% as the company deepens strategic cooperation with Zuo You Home to explore new retail transformation paths [5] Group 6 - China Metallurgical Group continued to decline by 3.72%, following a significant drop of over 21% the previous day after announcing plans to sell assets worth 60.7 billion yuan [6] Group 7 - Pacific Basin Shipping fell by over 9%, as the Baltic Dry Index dropped to a near two-week low [7] Group 8 - Smoore International decreased by over 8%, having halved from its year-to-date high, as major client British American Tobacco forecasted performance pressures for the next year [8]

Group 1 - The Hang Seng Index fell by 0.43%, down 109 points, closing at 25,324 points, while the Hang Seng Tech Index decreased by 0.68% [1] - Lithium carbonate futures for the 2605 contract rose over 3%, reaching a peak of 96,800 yuan/ton, leading to gains in lithium stocks such as Ganfeng Lithium, which increased by 3.16%, and Tianqi Lithium, which rose by over 2% [1] - China Molybdenum's stock price increased by over 5% as CICC remains optimistic about the tungsten price bull market [2] Group 2 - Silver Noble Pharmaceuticals-B surged over 18% after officially entering the GLP-1 receptor agonist market with its product Yinuo Qing [3] - Gold stocks generally rose, supported by a strong precious metals market ahead of the Federal Reserve's decision, with Zijin Mining International increasing by over 4% and Lingbao Gold rising by 9% [3] - Baoyi Pharmaceutical-B debuted with a significant increase of 124%, as three core products are set to be commercialized soon [4] Group 3 - China Boton saw its stock price rise by over 13% after signing a land acquisition agreement, which will provide cash compensation of 2.272 billion yuan [5] - Red Star Macalline's stock increased by over 6% as the company deepens strategic cooperation with Zuo You Home to explore new retail transformation paths [6] - China Metallurgical Group's stock continued to decline by 3.72%, following a significant drop of over 21% after announcing plans to sell assets worth 60.7 billion yuan [7] Group 4 - Pacific Shipping's stock fell by over 9% as the Baltic Dry Index dropped to a near two-week low [8] - Smoore International's stock decreased by over 8%, having halved from its year-to-date high, as major client British American Tobacco forecasted performance pressure for the next year [9]

Group 1 - The Hang Seng Index fell by 0.43%, down 109 points, closing at 25,324 points, while the Hang Seng Tech Index decreased by 0.68% [1] - Lithium carbonate futures for the 2605 contract rose over 3%, reaching a peak of 96,800 yuan/ton, leading to gains in lithium stocks such as Ganfeng Lithium, which increased by 3.16%, and Tianqi Lithium, which rose by over 2% [1] - China Molybdenum's stock price increased by over 5% as CICC remains optimistic about the tungsten price bull market [2] Group 2 - Silver Star Pharmaceuticals-B surged over 18% after the company successfully entered the insurance market with its GLP-1 receptor agonist, Eino Light® [3] - Gold stocks generally rose, with Zijin Mining International increasing by over 4% and Lingbao Gold rising by 9%, supported by a strong gold market ahead of the Federal Reserve's decision [3] - Baoji Pharmaceutical-B debuted with a significant increase of 124% on its first trading day, with three core products set to be commercialized soon [4] Group 3 - China Boton saw its stock price rise by over 13% after signing a land acquisition agreement, which will provide cash compensation of 2.272 billion yuan [5] - Red Star Macalline's stock increased by over 6% as the company deepens strategic cooperation with Zuo You Home to explore new retail transformation paths [6] - China Metallurgical Group's stock continued to decline by 3.72%, following a significant drop of over 21% the previous day after announcing plans to sell assets worth 60.7 billion yuan [7] Group 4 - Pacific Basin Shipping's stock fell by over 9% as the Baltic Dry Index dropped to a near two-week low [8] - Smoore International's stock decreased by over 8%, having halved from its year-to-date high, as major client British American Tobacco forecasted performance pressures for the next year [9]