晨会纪要（2025/12/18） 编辑人 崔健 022-28451618 SAC NO：S1150511010016 cuijian@bhzq.com 渤海证券研究所晨会纪要（2025.12.18） 金融工程研究 主要指数全部震荡调整，两融余额小幅下降——融资融券周报 行业研究 2025 年工业机器人产量有望突破 70 万台——机械设备行业周报 证 券 研 究 报 告 晨 会 纪 要 请务必阅读正文之后的声明 渤海证券股份有限公司具备证券投资咨询业务资格 1 of 5 晨会纪要（2025/12/18） 金融工程研究 主要指数全部震荡调整，两融余额小幅下降——融资融券周报 王雪莹（证券分析师，SAC NO：S1150525020001） 1、市场概况 上周（12 月 10 日-12 月 16 日）A 股市场主要指数全部震荡调整，其中创业板指跌幅最大，下跌了 4.29%； 上证 50 跌幅最小，下跌了 1.44%。此外，上证综指下跌 2.17%，深证成指下跌 2.73%，科创 50 下跌 3.99%， 沪深 300 下跌 2.19%，中证 500 下跌 1.69%。 12 月 16 日，沪深两市两融余额为 24, ...

Group 1 - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology of China is committed to promoting new industrialization and providing more cooperation opportunities for foreign companies, including AMD, in the fields of digital economy and artificial intelligence [1][1] - CICC has announced a major asset restructuring plan to absorb and merge with Dongxing Securities and Xinda Securities, with a share swap price set at 36.91 CNY per share for CICC, 16.14 CNY for Dongxing Securities, and 19.15 CNY for Xinda Securities, with the merger expected to balance shareholder interests [1][1] - The State Development and Reform Commission has issued a notice on the benchmark levels for clean and efficient coal utilization, aiming to enhance the clean energy system in China [1][1] Group 2 - The global silver market is experiencing a historic surge, with prices surpassing 66 USD per ounce, marking a year-to-date increase of over 130%, significantly outpacing gold [3][3] - The European Parliament has approved a plan to gradually stop importing Russian natural gas by the end of 2027, pending final approval from EU member states [3][3] - The asset management products total scale reached 80.03 trillion CNY by the end of Q3 2025, according to the China Securities Investment Fund Industry Association [1][1]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of building a unified national market in China, as directed by the central government, to strengthen domestic circulation and facilitate international trade [1]. Group 1: Implementation of National Market Integration - The Henan province has actively implemented the central government's directives by organizing conferences and formulating plans to integrate and serve the national unified market, establishing 150 annual tasks and focusing on ten key initiatives [1]. - The province has introduced a "Five Unifications and One Opening" policy to align national needs, provincial capabilities, and business expectations [1]. Group 2: Market Regulation and Fair Competition - Henan has enacted measures to enhance market fairness, including the establishment of a competitive review system and the investigation of 426 cases of unfair competition [2]. - The province has streamlined market entry processes, reducing the time for business relocations to six working days and enabling 2,398 companies to move freely [2]. - A unified public credit information directory has been created, resulting in a 52.3% increase in credit loans facilitated, totaling 166.88 billion yuan [2]. Group 3: Government Behavior and Procurement Regulation - The province has undertaken a comprehensive review of local government policies that hinder the unified market, amending or abolishing 160 policy documents [3]. - A new mechanism for investment attraction has been established to regulate local government behavior and prevent unfair practices [3]. Group 4: Business Environment Optimization - Henan has revised its business environment regulations, implementing actions to enhance the overall business climate and reduce administrative burdens by 81.5% [4]. - The province has conducted extensive outreach to businesses, visiting nearly 80,000 companies and resolving over 12,000 issues [4]. Group 5: Logistics and Infrastructure Development - The province is advancing the construction of a modern transportation system, with high-speed rail and highway expansions, achieving a total of 2,263 kilometers of high-speed rail [5][6]. - The logistics sector has seen a 20.2% increase in port throughput, reaching 60.68 million tons [6]. Group 6: Consumer and Trade Hub Development - Henan is focusing on expanding domestic demand through various promotional activities, resulting in a 5.8% increase in retail sales [7]. - The province is enhancing its commercial infrastructure to improve the efficiency of goods distribution [7]. Group 7: Resource Allocation and Market Reform - Efforts are being made to create a unified market for various resources, including land, labor, and capital, with a focus on facilitating efficient resource allocation [8]. - The province has seen a 63.7% increase in technology contract transactions, totaling 230.96 billion yuan [8]. Group 8: International Trade and Belt and Road Initiative - Henan is enhancing its role in the Belt and Road Initiative by expanding international air and rail routes, with a 24.6% increase in cargo throughput at Zhengzhou Airport [9]. - The province's total import and export value reached 840.24 billion yuan, growing by 13.5% [9].

Economic Growth - Kazakhstan's GDP grew by 6.4% year-on-year from January to November this year [1] - The real economy showed a steady growth of 8.3% in the first 11 months [1] Sector Performance - Key sectors such as transportation, construction, and mining experienced rapid growth [1] - The manufacturing sector also showed significant growth, with automotive manufacturing increasing by 15.2% and electrical equipment production rising by 16.7% [1] Challenges in Specific Industries - Some sectors, including trade and transportation services, are facing growth pressures [1] - The metallurgy industry lacks growth momentum, impacting the stability of related industrial chains [1] Policy Recommendations - The metallurgy sector, being a crucial foundational industry, requires targeted policy support to stabilize and maintain its growth [1] Inflation and Price Control - Recent data indicates a decline in inflation levels over the past two months, although food prices continue to exert pressure on overall price trends [1] - There is a need to strengthen price regulation on essential goods and increase the supply of affordable meat through major trade channels to stabilize market prices [1] Budget Efficiency - Departments are urged to improve the efficiency of budget fund utilization to ensure the completion of annual socio-economic development goals [2]

Macro News - The Minister of Industry and Information Technology, Li Lecheng, met with AMD's CEO, Lisa Su, expressing hopes for AMD to deepen its investment in the Chinese market and collaborate with local enterprises for mutual growth [1][44] - The State Administration for Market Regulation introduced new antitrust compliance guidelines for internet platforms, highlighting eight new monopoly risks and providing practical compliance guidance [1][44] - From January to November, China's general public budget revenue reached 200,516 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.8%, with stamp duty revenue growing by 27% [1][44] - Hainan Province announced the official launch of the Hainan Free Trade Port's full island closure starting December 18, 2025 [1][44] Industry News - China International Capital Corporation (CICC), Xinda Securities, and Dongxing Securities announced plans for a stock swap merger, with specific swap ratios set for each company [3][47] - Six departments released guidelines for the clean and efficient utilization of coal, aiming to enhance standards for new and existing coal projects [3][47] - A new mineral named "Jinxiu" was officially approved by the Ministry of Natural Resources, discovered by researchers from the Chinese Academy of Geological Sciences [3][47] - The Ministry of Education issued 20 measures to strengthen daily exam management in primary and secondary schools, including restrictions on paper-based exams for younger grades [3][47] - The global automotive semiconductor market is projected to grow from approximately $67.7 billion in 2024 to nearly $96.9 billion by 2029, with a compound annual growth rate of 7.4% [3][47] Company News - Sunac China announced that approximately $9.6 billion of existing debt will be fully discharged [5][50] - Muxi Co., Ltd. debuted on the Sci-Tech Innovation Board, closing its first day with a surge of 692.95%, leading to significant profits for investors [5][50] - Meike Home announced plans to acquire control of Wande Technology, with stock trading suspended [5][51] - Xichuang Data announced an investment in the establishment of a research and production project for optical modules [5][52] - Wanlong Optoelectronics plans to acquire 100% of Zhongkong Information, with stock trading resuming [5][53] - China Railway announced the signing of contracts totaling approximately 533.1 billion yuan, including significant contracts for wind power and energy storage equipment [5][53] - Deep City Transportation plans to raise up to 1.8 billion yuan through a private placement for research and development of intelligent transportation equipment [5][77]

Group 1: Major Asset Restructuring - Pulutong plans to acquire 100% of Leqee Group Limited and 8.26% of Hangzhou Lemai through share issuance and cash payment, with the transaction price yet to be determined [2][3] - Wanlong Optoelectronics intends to acquire 100% of Zhejiang Zhongkong Information Industry Co., Ltd. through share issuance and cash payment, with the final transaction price still pending [4][5] - Fengxing Co. plans to acquire 75% of Baiyin Huaxin Jiuhe Recycling Resources Co., Ltd. through share issuance and cash payment, with the asset valuation and transaction price yet to be confirmed [6] Group 2: Corporate Mergers and Acquisitions - CICC disclosed a plan to absorb and merge Dongxing Securities and Xinda Securities, with the merger expected to result in the cancellation of the latter's listings [7] - Meike Home is in the process of planning to acquire control of Shenzhen Wandelong Optoelectronics Co., Ltd., with the valuation still under consideration [8] Group 3: Significant Contracts and Agreements - China CRRC signed several major contracts totaling approximately 533.1 billion yuan, which includes contracts for wind power equipment and urban rail vehicles [15] - China Duty Free Group won bids for duty-free store projects at Shanghai Pudong and Hongqiao International Airports, with a joint investment of 102 million yuan for a new duty-free joint venture [16]

NO.3 跨年火车票开售，多条热门线路部分车次售罄 2025年12月31日的火车票已正式发售。去哪儿旅行数据显示，截至12月17日上午10点，已有多条热门线 路的部分车次售罄，包括北京到哈尔滨、北京到郑州、北京到武汉，深圳到汕头，成都到宜宾，成都到 西昌，宁波到上海，哈尔滨到牡丹江，青岛到烟台，青岛到淄博等。去哪儿旅行数据显示，元旦期间， 车程在2小时左右的短途路线最为火爆。北京往返天津、成都往返重庆、上海往返南京、广州往返南宁 等短途线路人气旺。长线方面，北京往返哈尔滨、北京往返沈阳、广州往返长沙等线路最为紧俏。 点评：铁路客流呈现"短程爆发、长线紧俏"特征，2小时都市圈城际列车客座率将超90%，利好运营京 沪、成渝、京津等短途干线的国铁及地方铁路；同时，北京、成都、广州等枢纽站商业坪效有望提升。 长途方面，东北冰雪游、海南避寒游需求提前释放，相关机场及免税板块亦受益。 NO.1 卡夫亨氏CEO突然离任 国际快消品行业又现巨头高层变动。当地时间12月16日，拥有"亨氏番茄沙司"等产品的卡夫亨氏宣布， Steve Cahillane将于2026年1月1日加入卡夫亨氏，担任首席执行官。现任首席执行官则将在同期卸 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Chongqing Municipal Government has issued the "Artificial Intelligence + Action Plan" to accelerate the intelligent innovation of the productive service industry [1] Group 1: AI Software and Information Services - The plan promotes "AI+" software information services and implements the "Starry Sky Action" to innovate the entire software development process [1] - It aims to transform industrial software into intelligent systems [1] Group 2: AI in Financial Services - The initiative emphasizes the development and application of large models in financial services, enhancing credit services, interactive risk control, and financial fraud prevention [1] - The goal is to improve the quality and efficiency of financial services [1] Group 3: Application in Productive Service Industries - The plan encourages the widespread application of new-generation intelligent terminals and intelligent systems in various sectors, including industrial design, transportation, modern logistics, and human resource services [1]

| 申万行业 | 行业涨跌（%） | 成交额（亿元） | 比上日（%） | 领涨（跌）股 | 涨跌幅（%） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 通信 | 1.19 | 546.94 | -4.48 | 通鼎互联 | 10.09 | | 有色金属 | 1.14 | 408.23 | -16.83 | 国城矿业 | 9.33 | | 交通运输 | 0.74 | 101.66 | -1.70 | 三羊马 | 10.00 | | 美容护理 | 0.73 | 22.52 | -12.93 | 百亚股份 | 2.93 | | 综合 | 0.66 | 15.99 | -8.78 | 南京新百 | 5.01 | | 石油石化 | 0.55 | 26.91 | -35.22 | 中曼石油 | 2.37 | | 基础化工 | 0.51 | 302.90 | -13.22 | 润普食品 | 15.31 | | 社会服务 | 0.50 | 83.90 | 8.63 | 曲江文旅 | 10.04 | | 传媒 | 0.48 | 139.92 | -22.88 | 昆仑万维 | 5.62 ...

Group 1: Power Generation and Industrial Activity - The cumulative power generation of coal-fired power plants in December decreased by 8.2% year-on-year, compared to a 7.2% decline in November, indicating a continuation of weak demand in both power and non-power sectors [1][6] - The industrial operating rates showed mixed results, with the operating rate of steel blast furnaces down by 0.7 percentage points year-on-year, while the operating rate of weaving machines in Jiangsu and Zhejiang increased by 0.1 percentage points [7][8] - Key steel mills reported a 1.4% month-on-month decline in crude steel production, with a 4.5% year-on-year decrease, while rebar production fell by 10.5% month-on-month and 16.2% year-on-year [9] Group 2: Construction and Material Supply - The funding availability rate for construction sites improved marginally, with a 0.2 percentage point increase in funding for both non-residential and residential construction [11] - The asphalt production rate remained stable month-on-month but decreased by 0.4 percentage points year-on-year, indicating fluctuations in construction activity [11][12] - The national cement dispatch rate recorded a 30.09% rate, down 3.1 percentage points month-on-month, reflecting a slowdown in construction material supply [12] Group 3: Consumer Behavior and Sales Trends - The average daily subway ridership in major cities increased by 1.4% year-on-year, while domestic flight operations rose by 1.3%, suggesting a slight recovery in consumer mobility [3][12] - Real estate sales remained weak, with a 32.9% year-on-year decline in average daily transactions of commercial housing in major cities during the first half of December [16] - Retail sales of passenger vehicles saw a significant drop of 32% year-on-year, with wholesale sales down by 40%, indicating a contraction in consumer spending in the automotive sector [17] Group 4: Manufacturing and Export Activity - The container throughput at domestic ports increased by 6.7% year-on-year, although this growth rate was lower than the 10.2% recorded in November, reflecting ongoing resilience in trade [21] - The Business Price Index (BPI) showed signs of recovery, with a 0.8% increase compared to the end of November, indicating a potential stabilization in industrial prices [24] - The production of household appliances continued to decline, with online sales of air conditioners, refrigerators, and washing machines dropping significantly, reflecting reduced consumer demand [18][19]