Summary of Home Appliance Industry Research Conference Call Industry Overview - The home appliance industry is characterized by a dual nature of manufacturing and consumer goods, with a long supply chain that includes upstream raw materials and intermediate component manufacturing, as well as downstream channel sales and brand operations [2][3][9] Key Insights and Arguments - The white goods market is nearing saturation, with growth relying on overseas markets; the black goods market is experiencing a global volume decrease but price increase, with domestic brands showing significant technological advantages [1][3] - Kitchen appliances are influenced by real estate fluctuations, but emerging categories like dishwashers are seeing increased penetration rates [1][3] - Small appliances are diversifying as household income rises, with increased penetration rates and brand diversity [1][4] - Investment styles can be matched with different segments of the home appliance industry: white goods for stable investors, black goods for those seeking inflection point opportunities, kitchen appliances for post-real estate cycle investors, and small appliances for growth-oriented investors [1][5] Market Size Analysis - Market size can be estimated through household numbers, average ownership rates, and product prices. For instance, with approximately 500 million households in China, if each household owns three air conditioners, the total stock would be around 1.5 billion units, leading to an annual sales estimate of 150 million units [6][10] Technological Changes and Market Dynamics - Technological innovations significantly impact market dynamics, such as the iteration of robotic vacuum cleaners and changes in black goods technology paths, enhancing the global competitiveness of Chinese companies [1][7] - High functional recognition categories (e.g., air conditioners) require significant R&D investment, while low recognition categories (e.g., refrigerators) rely more on marketing and distribution [8][11] Production Cost Characteristics - The production cost chain in the home appliance industry is extensive, with raw material costs (steel, copper, aluminum) constituting 60-70% of production costs, which can significantly affect profitability [9][14] - Price fluctuations in raw materials, such as steel and panel prices, directly impact the gross margins of companies like Gree and Hisense [9][14] Competitive Landscape - Brand loyalty, reputation, and awareness are crucial in determining the competitive landscape of home appliance categories. High recognition products like air conditioners benefit from brand loyalty, while low recognition products depend more on marketing [11][12] - Price wars, particularly in the air conditioning sector, have significantly influenced competitive dynamics, with historical price reductions leading to shifts in market share among key players [12][13] Future Trends - The home appliance industry is expected to face a decline in domestic sales due to subsidy adjustments, while overseas demand will drive growth in white goods. Companies are exploring diversification into robotics, B2B businesses, and new energy sectors [15][16] Data Tracking and Analysis - The home appliance industry has a robust data tracking system that includes online and offline sources, allowing for comprehensive monitoring of sales and market trends [17][18][19] - Ensuring data consistency with actual company performance involves using various data sources and regular communication with companies to validate information [20] Support for Investors - Longjiang Home Appliances offers detailed databases and continuous updates on market segments, providing support for investors seeking in-depth analysis and discussions [21]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the industry, but it suggests focusing on sectors with reasonable valuations such as liquor, dairy, hotels, and catering [3]. Core Insights - The consumer sector showed mixed performance in the week of August 11-15, with textile and apparel, retail, food and beverage, social services, and beauty care sectors experiencing varying degrees of growth and decline [3]. - In July, essential consumption remained stable while optional consumption showed signs of recovery, with durable goods maintaining high growth rates. The total retail sales in July increased by 3.7% year-on-year, with essential goods like grain and oil maintaining high growth rates [3]. - The launch of the Antigravity A1 drone by Yingling represents a significant technological innovation in the consumer drone market, with features that enhance usability and safety, indicating a growing market potential [3]. Summary by Sections Market Weekly Review - The consumer sector's performance varied, with notable gains in textile and apparel (+2.43%), retail (+0.98%), and food and beverage (+0.48%), while declines were seen in beauty care (-1.37%) [3]. - Key stocks that led gains included Guifaxiang (+28.74%) and Zhejiang Dongri (+55.09%), while stocks that saw the largest declines included Huangshanghuang (-10.67%) and Jihua Group (-25.76%) [3]. Industry News and Key Company Announcements - The report highlights the opening of a new high-end restaurant by Pizza Hut in Shenzhen, marking its second strategic move in the domestic market [14]. - The report also notes significant growth in the electric two-wheeler market, with production increasing by 30.6% year-on-year in July [17]. - The introduction of a personal consumption loan subsidy policy aims to stimulate consumer spending, with a maximum subsidy of 3,000 yuan for eligible loans [17]. - Companies like Chongqing Beer and Guizhou Moutai reported mixed financial results, with Moutai showing a revenue increase of 9.16% year-on-year [18][19].

Core Viewpoint - The report from CICC indicates that incremental capital is accelerating into the market, suggesting that the current market trend may continue, with A-shares showing greater elasticity compared to Hong Kong stocks [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - A-shares are expected to regain superiority over Hong Kong stocks if domestic individual investors accelerate their market entry and pressures on core industries such as the new energy chain and real estate chain ease [1] - Positive changes in the funding landscape for A-shares have been observed, with attractive market returns, improved chip structure, and a positive cycle of profit-making effects and capital inflows [1] - The restructuring of external monetary order and a weak dollar trend may lead to renewed interest in RMB assets, driving incremental capital into the market [1] Group 2: Sector Analysis - A-shares and Hong Kong stocks have distinct sector advantages, providing complementary investment value. In terms of profit structure, the midstream manufacturing sector in A-shares has a higher profit share compared to Hong Kong [1] - The A-share market features hard technology, new energy, and midstream manufacturing as its characteristic industries, while the Hong Kong market is home to many scarce internet leaders and emerging consumer enterprises [1] Group 3: Hard Technology vs. Soft Innovation - A-shares have shown strong competitiveness in hard technology sectors like semiconductors and electronics, benefiting from high industry prosperity and policy support, contributing approximately 3.5% to overall profits [2] - The soft innovation sector in Hong Kong, particularly in the internet space, has gained prominence due to the AI technology revolution, contributing 13.5% to the market's profits [2] Group 4: Consumer Trends - The A-share market's broad consumption sector, including food and beverage, has maintained stable profit contributions, with the liquor industry contributing around 2.5% to overall profits over the past five years [3] - In contrast, the Hong Kong market has seen a shift towards new consumption models, with new retail channels and entertainment sectors performing well, leading to over 200% cumulative profit growth in the new consumption index over the past three years [3] Group 5: New Energy Sector - The A-share market's new energy sector, particularly in upstream resource manufacturing, has seen improved global competitiveness, with the electric equipment and new energy sector contributing around 5% to A-share profits [4] - The Hong Kong market's new energy sector is primarily focused on downstream electric vehicle manufacturers, which have shown strong performance despite being in a transitional phase [5] Group 6: Pharmaceutical Sector - The A-share pharmaceutical sector has a more complete industry chain, contributing about 3% to overall profits, while the Hong Kong market focuses on innovative drug development, with profit contributions increasing from 0.4% in 2022 to 1.6% in 2024 [6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the industry [8] Core Insights - The online music platforms, Tencent Music and NetEase Cloud Music, reported strong mid-year performance for 2025, with Tencent Music achieving a revenue of 8.44 billion yuan in Q2 2025, a year-on-year increase of 17.9%, and an adjusted net profit of 2.57 billion yuan, up 37.4% [3][12] - NetEase Cloud Music's revenue for H1 2025 was 3.83 billion yuan, down 6% year-on-year, but its adjusted net profit surged by 121% to 1.95 billion yuan, primarily due to the recognition of deferred tax assets [3][12] - The online music industry is characterized by a stable competitive landscape with strong user stickiness, indicating long-term investment potential [3][22] Summary by Sections Online Music Platforms - Tencent Music's online music service revenue reached 6.85 billion yuan in Q2 2025, reflecting a 26.4% increase year-on-year, with an average revenue per user (ARPU) of 11.7 yuan per month, up 9.3% [12][16] - NetEase Cloud Music's subscription revenue for H1 2025 was 2.47 billion yuan, a 15.2% increase year-on-year [16] Home Appliance Sector - The home appliance sector saw a weekly increase of 1.9%, with white goods, black goods, and small appliances rising by 1.0%, 4.2%, and 1.7% respectively, while kitchen appliances decreased by 1.1% [4][29] - The report suggests that the home appliance sector will benefit from policies supporting domestic demand recovery, particularly through trade-in programs [5][23] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on major home appliance companies such as Midea Group, Haier Smart Home, Gree Electric Appliances, and TCL Electronics, which are expected to benefit from trade-in programs [5][23] - The pet industry is highlighted as a resilient sector during economic downturns, with companies like Guibao Pet and Zhongchong Co. recommended for investment [5][23] - The report also emphasizes the potential for recovery in small appliances and branded apparel due to low baselines, suggesting companies like Bear Electric and Anta Sports for consideration [5][23] Global Manufacturing Trends - The report notes that Chinese manufacturers maintain a significant advantage in global markets, particularly in major appliances and tools, with companies like Midea Group and Haier Smart Home recommended for their global market share [6][28]

Market Trends - The A-share market is expected to continue its slow bull trend due to strong fundamentals, loose policies, and liquidity conditions[6] - Since 2005, the Shanghai Composite Index's PE percentile has broken above 60% seven times, with six instances leading to further increases, averaging 2-4 months of upward movement[6][8] Economic Indicators - July's export growth rate was 7.2%, exceeding expectations, supported by a low base from the previous year[11] - The manufacturing PMI has shown improvements in five of the six instances where the market continued to rise after breaking the 60% PE threshold[6][12] Policy Environment - Recent policies aimed at promoting the healthy development of the private economy and consumer spending are being implemented, including personal consumption loan subsidies[15][19] - The geopolitical risk index has significantly decreased, indicating a more stable external environment for the market[16] Industry Focus - Short-term focus should be on growth and recovery sectors, particularly undervalued industries in technology, cyclical sectors, and large financials[26] - High-growth sectors currently include artificial intelligence, robotics, and consumer electronics, while undervalued sectors include transportation, coal, and petrochemicals[26][27] Investment Recommendations - It is advised to continue accumulating positions in sectors with upward policy and industry trends, such as robotics, electronics, and innovative pharmaceuticals[39] - The report suggests a balanced allocation towards sectors with improving expectations, including new energy, non-ferrous metals, and retail[39]

- The report introduces a "Total Heat Indicator" as a proxy variable for tracking market sentiment. This indicator is defined as the sum of browsing, watchlist additions, and clicks for individual stocks, normalized as a percentage of the total market on the same day, and then multiplied by 10,000. The value range is [0, 10,000][7] - A "Broad-based Index Heat Rotation Strategy" is constructed based on the weekly heat change rate (MA2) of major indices. The strategy involves buying the index with the highest heat change rate at the end of each week, or staying in cash if the "Others" group has the highest rate. The strategy achieved an annualized return of 8.74% since 2017, with a maximum drawdown of 23.5%, and a 2025 return of 24.5%[13][16] - A "Concept Heat Strategy" is developed by selecting the top 5 concepts with the highest weekly heat change rates. Two portfolios are constructed: 1. "TOP Portfolio" includes the top 10 stocks with the highest total heat within each concept 2. "BOTTOM Portfolio" includes the bottom 10 stocks with the lowest total heat within each concept Historical results show the BOTTOM Portfolio achieved an annualized return of 15.71% with a maximum drawdown of 28.89%, and a 2025 return of 33%[31][33]

Group 1 - The stock price of Liren Technology closed at 26.54 yuan on August 15, 2025, down 0.97% from the previous trading day [1] - The trading volume on that day was 16,274 hands, with a transaction amount of 0.43 billion yuan [1] - Liren Technology's main business includes the research, production, and sales of small household appliances, covering various categories such as kitchen and living appliances [1] Group 2 - On the evening of August 15, Liren Technology announced that its fourth board of directors' third meeting approved the proposal to use idle raised funds for cash management [1] - The supervisory board meeting held on the same day also approved this proposal [1] - On August 15, the net inflow of main funds was 2.8122 million yuan, with a cumulative net inflow of 5.0716 million yuan over the past five trading days [1]

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Group 2: Core Viewpoints - "Anti - involution" will alleviate the dilemma of "increasing revenue without increasing profit", with a greater boost to PPI than CPI, and promote the nominal GDP growth rate to approach the real GDP growth rate [5][21]. - The US economy shows signs of weakness, and the market's expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut is rising, with an expected cumulative rate cut of 75bp in 2025 [5][83]. - China's economic growth rate in 2025 may be high in the first half and low in the second half, but it can achieve the 5% target for the whole year [5]. - The A - share market still has a certain degree of sustainability, and the bond market is likely to fluctuate narrowly, while the commodity market will enter a wide - range shock trend [5]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1 "Anti - involution": Alleviate the Dilemma of "Increasing Revenue without Increasing Profit" and Improve Market Performance Expectations - **Overview**: "Anti - involution" aims to promote the economy to return from "scale expansion" to "high - quality growth", improve social overall efficiency, and is a key part of building a unified national market [10][11]. - **Approach**: Different from the previous supply - side reform, it focuses on downstream emerging industries, mainly private enterprises, with more moderate and gradual policies using market - based and legal means [18][19]. - **Impact**: It is expected to have a greater impact on PPI than CPI, and promote the nominal GDP growth rate to approach the real GDP growth rate, but there is uncertainty in the transmission of price increases from upstream to downstream [21][24]. - **Style**: From April to September, the market pays more attention to performance, and the "anti - involution" direction has performance release expectations [28]. - **Law**: It may be a key factor supporting the strength of the A - share market, and the current "anti - involution" market is in the policy - expectation stage [32][36]. - **Summary**: It can alleviate the dilemma of "increasing revenue without increasing profit" and improve market performance expectations [46]. 2 Global: The US Economy Shows Signs of Weakness, and the Fed's Interest Rate Cut Expectation is Rising - **Overseas Tariffs**: The US average effective tariff rate has reached the highest level since 1933, reducing global economic growth potential, and tariffs remain a key variable affecting China's exports [49]. - **Overseas Economy**: The global economy has short - term resilience, but the US economy shows signs of weakness in investment, and the Fed has lowered its economic growth forecast [55][60][66]. - **Overseas Inflation**: The short - term impact of tariffs on US inflation is emerging, and the medium - term inflation trend still faces great uncertainty [69][73]. - **Overseas Liquidity**: The inflection point of non - farm data may have arrived, and the market's expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut is rising, with an expected 75bp rate cut in 2025 [77][83]. - **Summary**: The global economy has short - term resilience but increasing uncertainty, and the expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut is rising [83]. 3 China: The Economic Growth Rate May be High in the First Half and Low in the Second Half, and the Spontaneous Recovery Momentum Needs to be Consolidated - **Economic Overview**: China's economic growth rate in 2025 may be high in the first half and low in the second half, with the GDP growth rate in Q3 and Q4 expected to decline compared with Q1 and Q2 [84]. - **Investment End**: The growth rate of fixed - asset investment continues to bottom out, and real estate investment is still the main drag [85]. - **Consumption End**: Consumption data still has resilience, and service consumption may be the key area of development [27]. - **Export End**: Attention should be paid to the impact of tariffs and export over - draw effects [5][28]. - **Liquidity**: The government sector is still the main force for increasing leverage, and the time for reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts is expected to be postponed [28]. - **Summary**: The annual economic growth rate is likely to be high in the first half and low in the second half [29]. 4 Market Strategy: Positive Factors are Gradually Accumulating to Strengthen the Foundation for the A - share Market to Improve - **General Trend Judgment**: The subsequent market is expected to have a certain degree of sustainability [30]. - **Policy Trends**: The economic policy in the second half of the year is expected to maintain its stance and act appropriately [32]. - **Allocation Framework**: Gradually increase the allocation of stock assets [33]. - **Investment Advice**: The equity index will run strongly, the bond market may fluctuate narrowly, and the commodity market will enter a wide - range shock trend [5][33].

Core Insights - The non-banking financial sector experienced the highest net inflow of capital today, amounting to 15.498 billion yuan, with a price change of 3.16% and a turnover rate of 3.28% [1][2] - The communication sector faced the largest net outflow of capital, totaling -3.451 billion yuan, with a price change of 0.58% and a turnover rate of 2.47% [1][2] Industry Summary - **Non-banking Financial**: - Trading volume: 136.04 billion shares - Change in trading volume: +45.43% - Turnover rate: 3.28% - Price change: +3.16% - Net capital inflow: 15.498 billion yuan [1] - **Communication**: - Trading volume: 43.20 billion shares - Change in trading volume: -2.82% - Turnover rate: 2.47% - Price change: +0.58% - Net capital outflow: -3.451 billion yuan [1] - **Electric Power Equipment**: - Trading volume: 99.65 billion shares - Change in trading volume: +7.36% - Turnover rate: 3.98% - Price change: +2.85% - Net capital inflow: 5.527 billion yuan [1] - **Metals**: - Trading volume: 73.37 billion shares - Change in trading volume: +3.71% - Turnover rate: 3.34% - Price change: +2.23% - Net capital inflow: 3.690 billion yuan [1] - **Electronics**: - Trading volume: 105.13 billion shares - Change in trading volume: -6.15% - Turnover rate: 3.80% - Price change: +2.05% - Net capital inflow: 2.927 billion yuan [1] - **Household Appliances**: - Trading volume: 26.82 billion shares - Change in trading volume: +28.05% - Turnover rate: 3.53% - Price change: +1.07% - Net capital inflow: 2.014 billion yuan [1] - **Basic Chemicals**: - Trading volume: 69.90 billion shares - Change in trading volume: -10.39% - Turnover rate: 2.58% - Price change: +2.09% - Net capital inflow: 1.612 billion yuan [1] - **Machinery Equipment**: - Trading volume: 101.55 billion shares - Change in trading volume: -10.39% - Turnover rate: 3.74% - Price change: +1.94% - Net capital inflow: 0.746 billion yuan [1] - **Environmental Protection**: - Trading volume: 16.69 billion shares - Change in trading volume: -18.60% - Turnover rate: 1.85% - Price change: +1.11% - Net capital inflow: 0.659 billion yuan [1] - **Computers**: - Trading volume: 103.15 billion shares - Change in trading volume: -10.46% - Turnover rate: 5.78% - Price change: +2.34% - Net capital inflow: 0.598 billion yuan [1] - **Agriculture, Forestry, Animal Husbandry, and Fishery**: - Trading volume: 20.43 billion shares - Change in trading volume: -0.92% - Turnover rate: 2.15% - Price change: +0.89% - Net capital inflow: 0.363 billion yuan [1] - **Real Estate**: - Trading volume: 47.51 billion shares - Change in trading volume: +0.68% - Turnover rate: 2.19% - Price change: +2.11% - Net capital inflow: 0.361 billion yuan [1] - **Transportation**: - Trading volume: 35.10 billion shares - Change in trading volume: -2.33% - Turnover rate: 0.83% - Price change: +0.68% - Net capital inflow: 0.292 billion yuan [1] - **Comprehensive**: - Trading volume: 4.12 billion shares - Change in trading volume: -15.09% - Turnover rate: 2.44% - Price change: +3.92% - Net capital inflow: 0.165 billion yuan [1] - **Light Industry Manufacturing**: - Trading volume: 25.68 billion shares - Change in trading volume: -0.23% - Turnover rate: 3.10% - Price change: +0.78% - Net capital inflow: 0.141 billion yuan [1] - **Building Materials**: - Trading volume: 22.86 billion shares - Change in trading volume: -2.28% - Turnover rate: 3.07% - Price change: +2.29% - Net capital inflow: 0.088 billion yuan [1] - **Public Utilities**: - Trading volume: 40.81 billion shares - Change in trading volume: -2.88% - Turnover rate: 1.02% - Price change: +0.56% - Net capital inflow: 0.057 billion yuan [1] - **Social Services**: - Trading volume: 14.43 billion shares - Change in trading volume: -21.40% - Turnover rate: 3.24% - Price change: +1.18% - Net capital inflow: 0.051 billion yuan [1] - **Automobiles**: - Trading volume: 64.07 billion shares - Change in trading volume: -13.61% - Turnover rate: 2.90% - Price change: +1.63% - Net capital outflow: -0.018 billion yuan [1] - **Construction and Decoration**: - Trading volume: 42.39 billion shares - Change in trading volume: -13.91% - Turnover rate: 1.51% - Price change: +0.54% - Net capital outflow: -0.113 billion yuan [1] - **Textiles and Apparel**: - Trading volume: 17.67 billion shares - Change in trading volume: -23.78% - Turnover rate: 2.52% - Price change: +0.65% - Net capital outflow: -0.157 billion yuan [2] - **Beauty and Personal Care**: - Trading volume: 2.60 billion shares - Change in trading volume: -25.22% - Turnover rate: 2.63% - Price change: +0.64% - Net capital outflow: -0.184 billion yuan [2] - **Coal**: - Trading volume: 10.82 billion shares - Change in trading volume: -24.60% - Turnover rate: 0.95% - Price change: +0.61% - Net capital outflow: -0.205 billion yuan [2] - **Steel**: - Trading volume: 29.83 billion shares - Change in trading volume: -16.60% - Turnover rate: 1.51% - Price change: +0.65% - Net capital outflow: -0.290 billion yuan [2] - **Retail Trade**: - Trading volume: 22.58 billion shares - Change in trading volume: -22.95% - Turnover rate: 1.88% - Price change: +0.54% - Net capital outflow: -0.292 billion yuan [2] - **Oil and Gas**: - Trading volume: 14.29 billion shares - Change in trading volume: +4.42% - Turnover rate: 0.39% - Price change: +0.93% - Net capital outflow: -0.560 billion yuan [2] - **Food and Beverage**: - Trading volume: 13.67 billion shares - Change in trading volume: -18.05% - Turnover rate: 1.49% - Price change: +0.04% - Net capital outflow: -1.165 billion yuan [2] - **Media**: - Trading volume: 48.82 billion shares - Change in trading volume: -18.65% - Turnover rate: 3.33% - Price change: +0.51% - Net capital outflow: -1.195 billion yuan [2] - **Pharmaceuticals**: - Trading volume: 78.17 billion shares - Change in trading volume: -8.57% - Turnover rate: 2.86% - Price change: +1.16% - Net capital outflow: -1.335 billion yuan [2] - **Defense and Military**: - Trading volume: 32.27 billion shares - Change in trading volume: -22.89% - Turnover rate: 4.00% - Price change: +1.26% - Net capital outflow: -2.553 billion yuan [2] - **Banking**: - Trading volume: 62.53 billion shares - Change in trading volume: +72.06% - Turnover rate: 0.47% - Price change: -1.46% - Net capital outflow: -3.119 billion yuan [2]

导语 二季度，社保基金持仓股票中，增持的主要涉及银行、化工、电子等行业，偏好业绩稳定增长的个股；新进个股行业分布则较为多元，既关注传统优势行 业，也布局新兴成长领域。 在银行板块中，常熟银行成为社保基金较为青睐的个股，截至6月底，共有4个组合出现在该行十大流通股东名单中，合计持股 2.78 亿股，占该行流通股 比例达到8.38%，其中新增持股2379.72万股， 行业分布方面，17只新进个股涵盖了基础化工、家用电器、社会服务、计算机、交通运输等多个行业领域，传统优势行业与新兴成长板块均有涉及。 二季度重仓股有涨有跌 据Choice统计，截至8月14日，社保基金已在近50家上市公司半年报前十大流通股东中现身，合计持股数量超过8亿股，持股市值合计超过151亿元。从持 股变动来看，新进17只个股，增持15只，减持9只，没有变化的共有有8只。 从新进个股来看，涵盖了基础化工、家用电器、社会服务、计算机、交通运输等多个行业领域。业绩表现方面，超过六成上半年净利润实现增长。 从市场表现来，上述二季度社保基金重仓的个股年初至今的平均涨幅超过22%，超过七成个股上涨。 多领域布局17只新进个股 二季度社保基金重仓股超过七成半 ...