证券研究报告：金融工程报告 发布时间：2025-11-25 研究所 分析师:黄子崟 SAC 登记编号:S1340523090002 Email:huangziyin@cnpsec.com 研究助理:李子凯 SAC 登记编号:S1340124100014 Email:lizikai@cnpsec.com 近期研究报告 《微盘股继续领涨市场，扩散指数已达 较高区间 — — 微盘股指数周报 20251114》 - 2025.11.18 《连板高度打开情绪持续发酵，GRU 行 业轮动调入房地产——行业轮动周报 20251116》 - 2025.11.17 《连板情绪持续发酵，GRU 行业轮动调 入基础化工 — — 行业轮动周报 20251109》– 2025.11.10 《上证周中突破 4000 点，扩散指数行业 轮动调入电力设备及新能源——行业 轮动周报 20251102》 – 2025.11.03 《贵金属回调风偏修复，GRU 行业轮动 调入非银行金融——行业轮动周报 20251028》 – 2025.10.27 《上证强于双创调整空间不大，ETF 资 金持续配置金融地产与 TMT 方向——行 业轮动周 2025 ...

- The diffusion index model has been tracking out-of-sample performance for four years, with notable results in 2021 when momentum strategies captured industry trends, achieving excess returns of over 25% before a significant drawdown in September due to cyclical stock adjustments. In 2022, the strategy maintained stable returns with an annual excess return of 6.12%. However, in 2023, excess returns declined to -4.58%, and in 2024, a major drawdown occurred after September due to the model's focus on upward trends, missing rebound industries, resulting in an annual excess return of -5.82%[24][28] - The diffusion index model suggests allocating to industries such as non-bank finance, construction, and defense military, which showed significant week-on-week improvement in rankings. The top six industries based on diffusion index rankings as of October 24, 2025, are non-bank finance (0.988), banking (0.967), steel (0.952), communication (0.946), comprehensive (0.913), and non-bank finance (0.9)[25][26][27] - The GRU factor model, based on minute-level volume and price data processed through GRU deep learning networks, has shown strong performance in short cycles but weaker performance in long cycles. The model has been effective in capturing trading information since 2021, achieving significant excess returns. However, since February 2025, the model has faced challenges in generating excess returns due to market focus on thematic trading[31][37] - The GRU factor model ranks industries based on their GRU factor scores. As of October 24, 2025, the top six industries are non-bank finance (1.13), banking (1), electric power and utilities (0.54), textile and apparel (0.03), automotive (-0.58), and machinery (-0.73). Industries with the lowest GRU factor scores include food and beverage (-17.79), non-ferrous metals (-10.81), basic chemicals (-8.82), agriculture (-8.76), coal (-6.57), and building materials (-6.48)[6][13][32] - The GRU factor model's weekly industry rotation suggests allocating to non-bank finance, electric power and utilities, textile and apparel, transportation, steel, and petrochemicals. For the week ending October 24, 2025, the model achieved an average return of 1.89%, underperforming the equal-weighted return of the CSI first-tier industries by -0.77%. For October, the model's excess return is 1.80%, while the year-to-date excess return stands at -6.41%[6][34][39]

Market Overview - The risk scoring for the stock market by Zhongtai Asset Management is 45.79, a significant drop from 62.77 last month, primarily due to a notable decline in market sentiment [2] - The valuation of the CSI 300 index has increased to 64.74 from 61.90 last month, marking a continuous rise in the overall valuation center for six months [2] - There is a clear differentiation in valuations across sectors, with industries like steel, electronics, real estate, and others remaining above the historical 60th percentile, while the agriculture sector remains below the 10th percentile [2] Economic Indicators - Market expectation scores have slightly improved to 55.00 from 50.00 last month, driven by better-than-expected import and export growth in September [3] - Economic growth has slowed since Q3, but there is no acceleration in the downturn compared to the same period last year [3] - The global liquidity environment is becoming more accommodative due to the Federal Reserve's preventive rate cuts, but geopolitical conflicts and uneven recovery among major economies add uncertainty to the domestic economic environment [3] Market Sentiment - Market sentiment has experienced a drastic decline to 22.24 from 70.03 last month, indicating a shift from a significantly positive to a low sentiment range [5] - Various sentiment indicators have shown a cooling trend, with margin financing scores dropping significantly and retail fund inflows into the equity market slowing down [5] - The current market presents a mixed pattern of rising valuation centers, stable expectations, and sharply declining sentiment, suggesting a need for investors to approach market indicators with rationality [5] Bond Market Analysis - The risk scoring for the bond market is 61.7, reflecting a continuation of weak economic data, particularly in consumption [7] - Fixed asset investment growth has turned negative for the first time since the pandemic, with a cumulative year-on-year decline of 0.5% [8] - The overall liquidity in the market has shown signs of marginal weakening, with a decline in social financing growth since July [9] Key Economic Data - In Q3 2025, the actual GDP growth rate is 4.8%, with nominal GDP growth at 3.7% [8] - The industrial value-added growth in September is reported at 6.5%, while retail sales growth is at 3.0% [8] - The total social financing in September is 3.53 trillion yuan, with new RMB loans amounting to 1.61 trillion yuan [9]

Market Overview - The A-share market showed mixed performance today, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.10% to close at 3916.23 points, while the Shenzhen Component Index fell by 0.25% to 13086.41 points. The ChiNext Index increased by 0.38% to 3037.44 points, and the Sci-Tech 50 Index decreased by 0.94% to 1416.58 points. Overall, there were 1172 stocks that rose and 4168 stocks that fell, with a total trading volume of 193.11 billion yuan, down by 14.17 billion yuan from the previous trading day [1][12]. Industry Performance - Among the Shenwan first-level industries, coal, banking, food and beverage, telecommunications, and pharmaceutical sectors led the gains, with increases of 2.35%, 1.35%, 0.97%, 0.74%, and 0.20% respectively. Conversely, the steel, non-ferrous metals, building materials, basic chemicals, and agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery sectors experienced declines, with decreases of 2.14%, 2.06%, 1.86%, 1.76%, and 1.56% respectively [1][12]. Sector Highlights - The top-performing concept sectors today included continuous limit-up stocks, insurance, coal mining, Hainan Free Trade Port, memory storage, banking, semiconductor packaging, first boards, liquor, beverage manufacturing, ST stocks, near-term new shares, anti-cancer stocks, and brand leaders [2][11].

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market shows a positive trend with significant gains in the non-ferrous metals sector, which has the highest increase among various industries [1] Industry Performance Summary - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.82% with a trading volume of 730.69 million shares and a transaction value of 1,258.105 billion yuan, marking a 20.21% increase compared to the previous trading day [2] - Among 2,752 stocks, 68 reached the daily limit up, while 2,525 stocks declined, with 18 hitting the daily limit down [2] - The non-ferrous metals sector led the gains with an increase of 5.36%, followed by the electronics sector at 4.10% and the power equipment sector at 2.55% [2] - The real estate sector experienced the largest decline at 2.48%, followed by media at 1.98% and agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery at 1.37% [2] Detailed Industry Data - Non-ferrous metals: - Increase: 5.36% - Transaction value: 112.587 billion yuan - Leading stock: Zhongzhou Special Materials, up 19.99% [2] - Electronics: - Increase: 4.10% - Transaction value: 276.665 billion yuan - Leading stock: C Yung Han, up 23.18% [2] - Power equipment: - Increase: 2.55% - Transaction value: 161.904 billion yuan - Leading stock: Haike Xinyuan, up 15.43% [2] - Real estate: - Decrease: 2.48% - Transaction value: 210.28 billion yuan - Leading stock: Huangting International, down 9.92% [2] - Media: - Decrease: 1.98% - Transaction value: 317.93 billion yuan - Leading stock: Guomai Culture, down 20.00% [2]

Market Overview - The A-share market experienced a day of volatility with the ChiNext index dropping over 2.5% during the session [2] - Major indices closed in the red, with the Shanghai Composite Index at 3828.11 (-0.65%), Shenzhen Component at 13209.00 (-1.76%), and the ChiNext at 3151.53 (-2.60%) [1][2] Sector Performance - The top-performing sectors included Oil & Petrochemicals (+1.17%), Environmental Protection (+0.38%), and Public Utilities (+0.35%) [1] - Conversely, the weakest sectors were Computer (-3.26%), Electronics (-2.75%), and Media (-2.65%) [1] Investment Insights - The report highlights a robust performance of the basic pension insurance fund, which has reached an investment operation scale of 2.6 trillion, doubling since the end of the 13th Five-Year Plan [3] - The average annual investment return of the pension fund stands at 5.15%, indicating effective value preservation and growth [3] Future Market Outlook - The market is expected to show a trend of oscillating upward rather than a one-sided increase, with a focus on whether growth policies can effectively translate into improved corporate earnings [4] - Key sectors to watch include TMT (Technology, Media, and Telecommunications), Public Utilities, Non-ferrous Metals, and Financials [4]

Core Insights - The report highlights the current industry allocation of the Bank of China’s multi-strategy system, with significant positions in non-bank financials (11.7%), steel (11.0%), and comprehensive sectors (10.1%) [1] - The average weekly return for the CITIC primary industries was -0.4%, while the average return over the past month was 2.3% [3][10] - The report identifies the top-performing industries for the week as automotive (4.4%), electronics (4.4%), and electric equipment and new energy (4.1%), while the worst performers were banking (-5.6%), non-bank financials (-4.4%), and food and beverage (-3.6%) [3][10] Industry Performance Review - The report provides a detailed performance review of CITIC primary industries, indicating that the automotive sector has a year-to-date return of 34.4%, while electronics and electric equipment and new energy have returns of 48.0% and 36.0%, respectively [11] - The report notes that the composite strategy has achieved a cumulative return of 24.5% year-to-date, outperforming the CITIC primary industry equal-weight benchmark return of 22.2% by 2.2% [3] Valuation Risk Warning - The report employs a valuation warning system based on the PB ratio over the past six years, identifying industries with a PB ratio above the 95th percentile as overvalued [12][13] - Currently, the industries triggering high valuation warnings include retail, media, computing, and automotive, with their PB ratios exceeding the 95th percentile [13] Single Strategy Rankings and Recent Performance - The report outlines the top three industries based on the high profitability tracking strategy as non-bank financials, agriculture, and steel [15][16] - The report also details the performance of various strategies, with the S2 strategy (implied sentiment momentum tracking) highlighting mechanical, electric equipment and new energy, and comprehensive sectors as the top three industries [20] Macro Style Rotation Strategy - The macro style rotation strategy identifies the top six industries based on current macro indicators as comprehensive finance, computing, communication, national defense, electronics, and media [24] - The report emphasizes the importance of macroeconomic indicators in predicting industry performance, utilizing a multi-factor approach to assess industry exposure to various macroeconomic styles [22][23]

Market Overview - The A-share market showed a strong upward trend with major indices closing higher, particularly the Shenzhen Component Index and the ChiNext Index, which rose over 1% [1][2] - The trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets exceeded 2 trillion yuan for the fifth consecutive trading day, indicating a favorable market sentiment [4] Sector Performance - The top-performing sectors included Electric Power Equipment (up 2.55%), Automotive (up 2.05%), and Household Appliances (up 1.64%), while the weakest sectors were Agriculture, Forestry, Animal Husbandry, and Fishery (down 1.02%) and Retail (down 0.98%) [1][2] - Concept indices that performed well included Lithography Machines (up 3.30%) and Flexible Screens (up 2.13%), whereas Duty-Free Shops and Pork concepts saw declines [1][2] Policy and Economic Outlook - The Ministry of Commerce and other departments released policies aimed at expanding service consumption, proposing 19 measures across five areas, including promoting high-quality service supply [3] - The report highlights the ongoing marginal slowdown in the domestic economy as of August, with expectations for timely policy support to boost market momentum [4] Investment Recommendations - Investors are advised to flexibly manage their positions and avoid blindly chasing high prices, while focusing on sectors with favorable conditions and valuation levels [4] - Recommended sectors for investment include Non-ferrous Metals, Automotive, Food and Beverage, Financials, and TMT (Technology, Media, and Telecommunications) [4]

Core Insights - As of September 12, the latest market financing balance reached 23,349.63 billion yuan, an increase of 112.82 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day [1] - Among the 21 primary industries under Shenwan, the electronic industry saw the largest increase in financing balance, rising by 46.45 billion yuan [1] - The industries with notable increases in financing balance also include non-ferrous metals, banks, and machinery equipment, with increases of 29.83 billion yuan, 14.25 billion yuan, and 10.93 billion yuan respectively [1] - Conversely, 10 industries experienced a decrease in financing balance, with significant reductions in defense and military, media, and agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery, decreasing by 3.92 billion yuan, 2.73 billion yuan, and 2.10 billion yuan respectively [1] Industry Summary - The non-ferrous metals industry had the highest growth rate in financing balance, reaching 1,102.00 billion yuan, with a month-on-month increase of 2.78% [1] - Other industries with notable month-on-month increases include banks (1.96%), electronics (1.47%), and building materials (1.15%) [1] - Industries with the largest month-on-month declines include light industry manufacturing, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery, and social services, with decreases of 0.79%, 0.76%, and 0.67% respectively [1][2] - The latest financing balances for various industries are as follows: - Electronics: 3,215.30 billion yuan, increase of 46.45 billion yuan, growth rate of 1.47% [1] - Non-ferrous metals: 1,102.00 billion yuan, increase of 29.83 billion yuan, growth rate of 2.78% [1] - Banks: 739.29 billion yuan, increase of 14.25 billion yuan, growth rate of 1.96% [1] - Machinery equipment: 1,238.74 billion yuan, increase of 10.93 billion yuan, growth rate of 0.89% [1] - Other industries also reported various changes in financing balances [1][2]

Core Insights - Shenzhen Stock Exchange companies reported a strong performance in the first half of 2025, with revenue and net profit both showing growth, indicating a stable and improving trend in performance [1][2] Overall Performance - In the first half of 2025, Shenzhen-listed companies achieved a total revenue of 10.24 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.64%, with Q2 revenue reaching 5.36 trillion yuan, up 9.78% quarter-on-quarter [2] - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 595.46 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 8.88%, with nearly 80% of companies reporting profits and over 50% showing a year-on-year increase in net profit [2] Main Board Performance - Among the 1,489 main board companies, total revenue was 8.19 trillion yuan, with an average revenue of 5.499 billion yuan per company [2] - 53.76% of companies reported a year-on-year revenue increase, and 55.17% reported a net profit increase, with 571 companies achieving both revenue and net profit growth [2] Growth in ChiNext (Growth Enterprise Market) - The 1,384 ChiNext companies reported total revenue of 2.05 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 9.03%, with over 60% of companies showing positive revenue growth [3] - Net profit reached 150.54 billion yuan, a significant year-on-year increase of 11.18%, leading the A-share market [3] Performance of Leading Companies - 55 companies with a market capitalization exceeding 100 billion yuan achieved total revenue of 2.81 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.69%, and net profit of 306.09 billion yuan, up 18.28% [3] Key Industry Highlights - Key industries such as electronics, power equipment, computing, telecommunications, and automotive showed strong performance, demonstrating resilience and growth [4] - The electronics sector reported total revenue of 984.76 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 14.1%, and net profit of 45.46 billion yuan, up 24.59% [4][5] R&D Investment - Total R&D investment by Shenzhen-listed companies reached 352.97 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, with 409 companies having an R&D intensity exceeding 10% [8] - Strategic emerging industry companies reported total revenue of 1.49 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 14.73%, with the new generation information technology sector growing at 20.41% [8][9] Dividend and Buyback Trends - 386 companies announced mid-term dividends totaling 88.61 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 49.51%, reflecting a growing awareness of shareholder returns [9] - Companies also increased share buyback plans, with 230 buyback announcements totaling 68.21 billion yuan [9]