s 加賀期货 沥青早报 研究中心能化团队 2025/6/3 | | 指标 | 4/30 | 5/23 | 5/28 | 5/29 | 5/30 | 日度变化 | 間度変化 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | BU主力合约 | 3408 | 3516 | 3481 | 3514 | 3457 | -57 | -59 | | | BU06 | 3408 | 3532 | 3489 | 3507 | 3452 | -રેર | -80 | | | BU09 | 3351 | 3466 | 3443 | 3483 | 3414 | -୧୨ | -52 | | | BU12 | 3215 | 3286 | 3266 | 3308 | 3237 | -71 | -49 | | STET | BU03 | 3246 | 3241 | 3227 | 3266 | 3201 | -65 | -40 | | | 成交量 | 280344 | 281684 | 407985 | 510411 | 579926 | ୧૭૨ 1 ર | 29824 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Neutral" as the industry index is expected to be in line with the benchmark [134]. Core Viewpoints - The report indicates that the demand for inventory before the holiday is weak, leading to a decline in refining product prices [1]. - The Brent crude oil average price for the week ending May 30, 2025, was $64.47 per barrel, reflecting a decrease of 1.07% [1][2]. - Domestic refining project price differentials have increased, with a domestic key refining project price differential of 2492.60 CNY/ton, up by 2.04% week-on-week [1][2]. Summary by Sections Refining Sector - OPEC+ is discussing an increase in production for July, which is pressuring prices, while geopolitical tensions continue to create volatility in oil prices [1]. - As of May 30, 2025, Brent and WTI crude oil prices were $63.90 and $60.79 per barrel, respectively, showing a decline from the previous week [1][14]. - Domestic refined oil prices have slightly increased, while overseas refined oil prices have generally declined [1]. Chemical Sector - The chemical sector is experiencing weak cost support and supply-demand dynamics, leading to price declines across various products [1]. - Polyethylene and polypropylene prices have shown a downward trend, with average prices for LDPE, LLDPE, and HDPE at 9057.14, 7032.14, and 8014.29 CNY/ton, respectively [1][53]. - The market for EVA remains weak, with prices decreasing to an average of 11500.00 CNY/ton [1][65]. Polyester Sector - The PX price has slightly increased due to a rise in PTA demand, with the current PX CFR China main port average price at 6026.19 CNY/ton [1][86]. - MEG prices have decreased slightly, with the current average price at 4512.86 CNY/ton [1][89]. - The average price for PTA is currently 4909.29 CNY/ton, with an industry average profit margin of -132.88 CNY/ton [1][91]. Major Refining Companies - The stock performance of six major refining companies as of May 30, 2025, shows mixed results, with Rongsheng Petrochemical up by 0.11% and Dongfang Shenghong down by 4.82% over the past week [1][121]. - Over the past month, Rongsheng Petrochemical has increased by 5.98%, while Dongfang Shenghong has decreased by 2.75% [1][121].

Group 1 - In March 2025, the petroleum coke production in Hebei Province reached 73,000 tons, representing a year-on-year increase of 16.3% [1] - The growth rate in March 2025 was 21.6 percentage points higher than the same period last year, and 19.2 percentage points higher than the national average [1] - The production accounted for 2.7% of the national petroleum coke output of 2.741 million tons during the same period [1] Group 2 - From January to March 2025, the total petroleum coke production in Hebei Province was 223,000 tons, with a year-on-year growth of 24.2% [2] - The growth rate for this period was 30.0 percentage points higher than the previous year, and 28.8 percentage points higher than the national average [2] - This production represented 2.8% of the national petroleum coke output of 8.063 million tons for the same period [2]

Core Insights - Fushun's economy showed impressive performance in Q1, with GDP growth of 7.3%, ranking first in the province and achieving the best position in 10 years [1] - The city implemented 38 specific measures to support economic stability and growth, resulting in significant increases in various sectors [1][2] - The focus for the upcoming period includes project construction, industrial upgrades, and enhancing consumption [2][3] Economic Performance - Fushun's GDP increased by 7.3% year-on-year, with industrial added value rising by 12.1%, both ranking first in the province [1] - Fixed asset investment grew by 23%, ranking second in the province, with a notable increase in projects over 100 million [1] - The city saw a 31.1% increase in investment for projects over 100 million, with private investment and manufacturing investment growing by 48% and 63%, respectively [1] Future Goals - The city aims for a GDP growth of around 7% in the first half of the year, with industrial added value growth of 10% and fixed asset investment growth of 15% [2] - Specific targets include achieving a public budget revenue growth of 8% and retail sales growth of approximately 8.5% [2] - Key areas of focus include enhancing economic operations, expanding effective investment, and promoting industrial upgrades [2] Structural Adjustments - Fushun is prioritizing structural adjustments, emphasizing the digital transformation of traditional industries [3] - The city plans to implement 98 technological transformation projects with a total investment of 172.6 billion [3] - The development of the ice and snow economy is also a focus, leveraging the upcoming "15 Winter" events to boost related industries [3]

Group 1 - The State Intellectual Property Office of China shows that China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation and China Petrochemical Group Chongqing Chemical & Chemical Co., Ltd. have applied for a patent titled "Ethylene-Vinyl Acetate Copolymer Solution and Its Preparation Method and Application" with publication number CN120059023A, filed on November 2023 [1] - The patent involves the field of resins, detailing a method for preparing ethylene-vinyl acetate copolymer solution, which includes polymerizing vinyl acetate with ethylene in the presence of a first solvent and initiator, followed by mixing the product with a second solvent and a terminator [1] Group 2 - China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation, established in 2000 and located in Beijing, primarily engages in the petroleum, coal, and other fuel processing industries, with a registered capital of approximately 12.17 billion RMB [1] - The company has invested in 255 enterprises, participated in 5,000 bidding projects, holds 45 trademark records, 5,000 patent records, and possesses 39 administrative licenses [1] Group 3 - China Petrochemical Group Chongqing Chemical & Chemical Co., Ltd., founded in 1980 and based in Chongqing, focuses on the manufacturing of chemical raw materials and products, with a registered capital of approximately 731.13 million RMB [2] - The company has invested in 15 enterprises, participated in 4,917 bidding projects, holds 14 trademark records, 653 patent records, and possesses 703 administrative licenses [2]

Core Insights - The production of petroleum asphalt in Sichuan Province for March 2025 reached 68,000 tons, representing a year-on-year increase of 218.2% [1] - For the first quarter of 2025, the total production of petroleum asphalt was 127,000 tons, with a year-on-year growth of 44.0% [2] Group 1: March 2025 Production Data - The petroleum asphalt production in March 2025 was 68,000 tons, showing a significant increase of 218.2% compared to the same month last year [1] - The growth rate for March 2025 was 274.5 percentage points higher than the previous year [1] - Sichuan's production accounted for 2.2% of the national total of 3,056,000 tons for the same period [1] Group 2: Q1 2025 Production Data - The total petroleum asphalt production for the first three months of 2025 was 127,000 tons, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 44.0% [2] - The growth rate for Q1 2025 was 84.5 percentage points higher than the previous year [2] - Sichuan's production represented 1.5% of the national total of 8,254,000 tons for the same period [2]

Group 1: Industry Overview - The petroleum and chemical indices mostly declined last week, with the chemical raw materials index down by 1.27% and the chemical machinery index down by 0.80% [1] - The chemical pharmaceutical index increased by 3.17%, and the pesticide and fertilizer index rose by 0.45% [1] - In the petroleum sector, the petroleum processing index remained flat, while the petroleum extraction index rose by 0.29% and the petroleum trade index increased by 0.10% [1] Group 2: Commodity Prices - International crude oil prices experienced slight fluctuations downward, with WTI settling at $61.53 per barrel, down by 1.54%, and Brent at $64.78 per barrel, down by 0.96% [1] - The top five rising petrochemical products included acrylic acid up by 10.79%, acifluorfen up by 7.69%, coal tar up by 6.72%, nitrile rubber up by 3.99%, and potassium chloride up by 3.57% [1] - The top five declining petrochemical products included chloroform down by 19.05%, butadiene down by 5.41%, maleic anhydride down by 4.62%, butane down by 4.5%, and propane down by 4.35% [1] Group 3: Capital Market Performance - In the capital market, the top five rising listed chemical companies included Huide Technology up by 35.58%, Yanggu Huatai up by 32.05%, Runyang Technology up by 24.74%, Lingpai Technology up by 23.81%, and Lafang Home up by 21.93% [2] - The top five declining listed chemical companies included Yuchanxia A down by 25.91%, Jitai Co. down by 24.85%, Hongqiang Co. down by 22.46%, Sanfu Xinke down by 13.54%, and Zhongxin Fluorine Material down by 12.38% [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The decline in asphalt production at major refineries combined with further improvement in demand makes short - term bullish oscillations more likely. The recent bullish oscillations in the asphalt market are mainly supported by the continuous improvement of the supply - demand situation. In the short term, the supply has significantly contracted, and the factory inventory has decreased, which further supports the spot price. The improvement in weather conditions has also led to an expectation of improved rigid demand for asphalt. Overall, the short - term market is likely to continue its bullish oscillations, but the upward and downward spaces are limited. The future key variables include refinery restart progress, the end time of the southern rainy season and the availability of project funds in the north, and crude oil price fluctuations [2]. - The strategy is to take a long - position approach on dips in the unilateral market and consider widening the asphalt crack spread after it retraces. The fluctuation range of BU is given as [3300, 3700] [3]. Summary by Related Catalogs Supply - The weekly asphalt output decreased by 9.4% to 52.9 million tons, mainly due to some refineries switching to producing residual oil or halting production. The capacity utilization rate dropped to 31.7% (a 3.3% decrease from the previous period). The import volume increased by 6.7% in April, with resources from Southeast Asia and South Korea arriving at ports in South and East China. The maintenance loss of equipment increased by 5.1% to 75.8 million tons, with refineries in the northwest, north, and Shandong regions undergoing concentrated maintenance [4]. - From January to December 2025, the asphalt supply shows fluctuations. The total supply in May is 234 million tons, with an 8.27% decrease from the previous month and a 14.82% decrease from the same period last year [5]. - According to different statistical calibers, the theoretical profits of asphalt production in various types of refineries this week have declined. Next week, asphalt prices are expected to fluctuate slightly, and the operating range of crude oil may move downward, with potential for improved asphalt production efficiency [69]. - As of May 22, 2025, the theoretical processing profit of Shandong local refineries' delayed coking units was 141.2 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 53.83 yuan/ton (+61.61%) and a year - on - year decrease of 165.01 yuan/ton (-53.89%) [70]. Demand - The continuous rainfall in the south has suppressed the rigid demand for asphalt, and road construction has been hindered, resulting in a week - on - week decline in demand in the south. In the north, due to tight project funds, the construction progress is slow, and only low - priced resources have achieved decent sales. The refinery's shipment volume increased by 10.9% week - on - week, but the demand side lacks continuous support [4]. - The sample shipment volume of 54 domestic asphalt enterprises was 43.5 million tons, a 10.9% increase from the previous period. The stable production of major refineries in the east and south regions, with shipments mainly by ship, has driven the increase in regional shipment volume. In Shandong, the shutdown of Lanqiao Petrochemical has led to a slight decrease in shipment volume this week [83]. - In the first quarter of 2025, the issuance scale of new local government special bonds nationwide reached 960.3 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 326.1 billion yuan (+51.4%). The issuance scale accounts for 21.8% of the annual special bond quota of 4.4 trillion yuan, indicating that fiscal policy continues the characteristic of "front - loaded efforts" [90]. Inventory - The factory inventory decreased by 3.6%, with significant inventory reduction in Shandong and East China as refineries fulfilled contract shipments. The social inventory increased by 0.9% due to the concentrated arrival of ships in East China and insufficient terminal consumption, leading to increased inventory pressure [4]. - The total domestic asphalt social inventory was 185.9 million tons, a 1.5% decrease from May 15. During the statistical period, the social inventory continued to decline, with significant inventory reduction in Shandong and East China [92]. Price Difference - In the Shandong region, the basis fluctuated widely during the week and finally dropped by 14 yuan/ton compared to the beginning of the week. In the East China region, the basis weakened oscillatingly, with a cumulative weekly decline of 4 yuan. In the South China region, the basis stabilized weakly, and the weekly discount narrowed by 14 yuan. In the Southwest region, the basis rebounded in a V - shape, with a cumulative weekly slight decline of 4 yuan but still remaining at a high level [11]. - The M1 - M3 spread narrowed from 52 points to 50 points, and the M1 - M6 spread shrank from 251 points to 230 points, indicating a weakening of the forward discount structure. The M1 - M9 spread fluctuated within a range of 34 points (255 - 289) during the week [19]. - The spot prices of asphalt in North and South China increased, while those in other regions remained stable. The reduction in the market circulation volume in some regions has supported the spot price of asphalt. Although the crude oil price continued to move within a range, the tight market circulation volume of asphalt in some regions recently has provided positive support for the domestic average asphalt price, which has continued to rise [27]. - The import spread of foreign - sourced asphalt further weakened [36].

5000 4000 3000 2000 1000 s 加賀期货 沥青早报 研究中心能化团队 2025/5/26 | | 指标 | 4/23 | 5/15 | 5/21 | 5/22 | 5/23 | 日度变化 | 間度变化 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | BU主力合约 | 3410 | 3466 | 3519 | 3539 | 3516 | -23 | 50 | | | BU06 | 3410 | 3466 | 3537 | 3555 | 3532 | -20 | 66 | | | BU09 | 3385 | 3395 | 3475 | 3481 | 3466 | -15 | 71 | | | BU12 | 3295 | 3211 | 3290 | 3301 | 3286 | -15 | 75 | | 播TIT | BU03 | 3281 | 3200 | 3249 | 3250 | 3241 | -9 | 41 | | | | 292339 | 295386 | 339667 | 381836 | 281684 | ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive investment rating for the oil processing industry [1]. Core Insights - Oil prices have been fluctuating around $65 per barrel due to geopolitical tensions and OPEC+ production decisions, with Brent and WTI prices at $64.78 and $61.53 per barrel respectively as of May 23, 2025 [7][29]. - The oil and petrochemical sector has shown mixed performance, with the oil and gas extraction sector increasing by 2.69% while the oil service engineering and refining sectors decreased by 0.38% and 0.49% respectively [9][8]. - U.S. crude oil production increased slightly to 13.392 million barrels per day, while the number of active drilling rigs decreased to 465 [54][54]. - U.S. refinery crude processing rose to 16.49 million barrels per day, with a utilization rate of 90.70% [66]. - U.S. crude oil inventories increased by 2.171 million barrels to 844 million barrels, with strategic reserves also rising [75]. Summary by Sections Oil Price Review - As of May 23, 2025, Brent crude futures settled at $64.78 per barrel, down by $0.63 (-0.96%) from the previous week, while WTI crude futures settled at $61.53 per barrel, down by $0.44 (-0.71%) [29][20]. Offshore Drilling Services - The number of global offshore self-elevating drilling rigs remained stable at 385, while floating drilling rigs decreased by one to 136 [38]. Crude Oil Supply - U.S. crude oil production was reported at 13.392 million barrels per day, with a slight increase of 0.5 thousand barrels per day [54]. Crude Oil Demand - U.S. refinery crude processing increased to 16.49 million barrels per day, with a refinery utilization rate of 90.70% [66]. Crude Oil Inventory - Total U.S. crude oil inventories rose to 844 million barrels, with strategic reserves at 400 million barrels and commercial inventories at 443 million barrels [75]. Refined Oil Products - In North America, the average prices for diesel, gasoline, and jet fuel were $89.22, $89.77, and $82.66 per barrel respectively, with varying price differences from crude oil [95].