Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the third quarter, the supply side has limited elasticity. Sinopec is expected to have low production, and refineries without quotas have no motivation to produce. Although production has increased year-on-year, it remains at a low level compared to the same period in previous years. The actual performance of the demand side will determine the intensity of inventory reduction during the peak season. In the short term, affected by precipitation in the South, demand is weak, spot prices are running weakly, and with oil prices fluctuating weakly, cost support is limited. Asphalt is expected to mainly fluctuate, and the cracking spread is expected to be slightly stronger [4][34]. - The operating range of the BU main contract is expected to be between 3,500 and 3,700 yuan/ton [4][34]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Part One: Preface Summary Market Review - In July, the peak season for crude oil demand was mediocre. The near - end tight - balance pattern was maintained, and geopolitical and macro factors had intermittent impacts. Prices fluctuated within a range. The cost - side price guidance for asphalt was limited, and the main futures contract fluctuated narrowly between 3,550 and 3,650 yuan/ton. Main refineries maintained intermittent production, with some reducing or halting production. The supply pressure in the region was limited, supporting a slight increase in asphalt spot prices. The basis in East China and Shandong remained at a high level. Demand improved gradually but was affected by weather factors and fell short of expectations. Demand in Shandong was affected by high temperatures and rainfall, and demand in South China was affected by typhoon weather. The spot price in South China declined, and the South China basis also decreased month - on - month, reaching a median level compared to the same period [3][8]. Market Outlook - In the third quarter, the supply side has limited elasticity. Sinopec is expected to have low production, and refineries without quotas have no motivation to produce. Although production has increased year - on - year, it remains at a low level compared to the same period in previous years. The actual performance of the demand side will determine the intensity of inventory reduction during the peak season. In the short term, affected by precipitation in the South, demand is weak, spot prices are running weakly, and with oil prices fluctuating weakly, cost support is limited. Asphalt is expected to mainly fluctuate, and the cracking spread is expected to be slightly stronger. The operating range of the BU main contract is expected to be between 3,500 and 3,700 yuan/ton [4]. Strategy Recommendations - Unilateral: Fluctuation. - Arbitrage: The asphalt - crude oil spread is expected to be strong. - Options: Wait - and - see [5]. Part Two: Fundamental Situation Market Review Same as the market review in the preface summary [3][8]. Supply Overview - From January to June 2025, the total asphalt production of domestic refineries was 13.19 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 450,000 tons or 4%. In June, asphalt production was 2.32 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 50,000 tons and a year - on - year increase of 300,000 tons. Compared with the previous production plan, PetroChina increased production by 90,000 tons, Sinopec by 110,000 tons, CNOOC decreased by 20,000 tons, and local refineries decreased by 90,000 tons [14]. - The planned total asphalt production of domestic refineries in July was about 2.29 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 40,000 tons or 2%, and a year - on - year increase of 240,000 tons or 12%. PetroChina's planned asphalt production in July was about 520,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 80,000 tons and a year - on - year increase of 120,000 tons. Sinopec's planned asphalt production in July was about 370,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 30,000 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 150,000 tons. CNOOC's planned asphalt production in July was about 200,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 40,000 tons and basically unchanged year - on - year. The planned asphalt production of local refineries in July was expected to be about 1.2 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 250,000 tons or 26%, and a month - on - month decrease of 30,000 tons compared to the production plan in June [14]. - From January to August 2025, China's asphalt production is expected to be about 17.89 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.19 million tons or 7%. From January to August, PetroChina's asphalt production is about 3.4 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 590,000 tons or 21%; Sinopec's is about 4.24 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 600,000 tons or 12%; CNOOC's is about 1.36 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 6%; and local refineries' is expected to be about 17.89 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.19 million tons or 7%. In August, the planned total asphalt production of domestic refineries is about 2.41 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 130,000 tons or 5%, and a year - on - year increase of 490,000 tons or 25% [15]. - The planned asphalt production of local refineries in August 2025 is expected to be about 1.26 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 250,000 tons or 27%, and a month - on - month increase of 60,000 tons compared to the production plan in July. In August, demand in the North will be further released, and with the continuous improvement of asphalt production profits, the production enthusiasm of some refineries has increased. However, refineries without crude oil quotas still have no plan to produce asphalt under the pressure of negative profits, and some refineries have maintenance plans, which limits the month - on - month increase in local refinery asphalt production [17]. - In the first half of 2025, China's asphalt imports were 1.725 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of about 1.95 million tons (-11.5%). Imports still mainly came from South Korea and the Middle East. Imports from South Korea were about 610,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 80,000 tons (-11%); imports from the Middle East were about 740,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of about 80,000 tons (+13%). Imports from Singapore, Malaysia, and Thailand decreased, with about 330,000 tons imported in the first half of the year, a year - on - year decrease of about 200,000 tons (-37%), accounting for 19% of total imports, a decrease of about 8 percentage points [17]. Demand Overview - In July, affected by weather factors, asphalt demand improvement fell short of expectations. Southern demand was still suppressed by rainfall, and demand in Shandong was affected by high temperatures and rainfall. In August, demand is expected to be steadily released as the weather improves. Some projects in Shandong are expected to rush to work in August, which is beneficial to demand. In South China, terminal demand will be gradually released after the typhoon season [22]. - Refinery shipments remained stable, at a neutral level compared to the same period. In the week of July 25th, shipments were 550,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 30,000 tons and a year - on - year increase of 170,000 tons. For terminal demand, the capacity utilization rate of road - modified asphalt has steadily recovered to the level of the same period last year, reaching 27%, a month - on - month increase of 3%. The operating rate of waterproofing membranes is at a relatively low level compared to the same period [22]. Inventory and Valuation - The overall industrial chain inventory remained at a low level, with low supply and upward demand expectations. In July, the asphalt refinery inventory rate was 25.1%, a significant month - on - month decrease of 5.5%, and at the lowest level compared to the same period in history. The refinery inventory rate in East China decreased significantly, and in the Northwest, it also decreased due to project construction and refinery production cuts. The refinery inventory level in South China increased due to rainfall suppressing demand. The social inventory rate was stable at around 35% in July, and it is expected to decline in August as demand improves in some areas [27]. - In July, the peak season for crude oil demand was mediocre, and the cost - side price guidance for asphalt was limited. Asphalt refinery processing profits declined compared to the low - cost period in June, and the refinery's losses increased slightly. As of July 28th, the loss was - 86 yuan/ton, a decrease of about 107 yuan/ton compared to the end of June. In July, the discount of diluted asphalt remained at - 5.5 US dollars/barrel. On July 24th, Chevron regained the operating license in Venezuela, and attention should be paid to the logistics changes in the diluted asphalt segment [27]. - In terms of basis, the main asphalt futures price fluctuated. Spot prices in East China and Shandong increased slightly, while the spot price in South China decreased due to typhoon rainfall. The basis in East China increased by 15 yuan/ton to 101 yuan/ton, and the basis in Shandong was stable at around 140 yuan/ton. Both were at relatively high levels compared to the same period. The basis in South China fell to a low level, - 19 yuan/ton, a decrease of 55 yuan/ton compared to the previous month [28]. Part Three: Future Outlook and Strategy Recommendations Future Outlook Same as the market outlook in the preface summary [4][34]. Strategy Recommendations - Unilateral: Fluctuation. - Arbitrage: The asphalt - crude oil spread fluctuates at a high level. - Options: Wait - and - see [35].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoint The report focuses on the asphalt market, showing that asphalt prices are rising slowly following the strong performance of crude oil. It also analyzes the fundamentals, market trends, and recent industry news of asphalt [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Market**: The closing prices of BU2508 and BU2509 increased, with daily increases of 0.77% and 0.86% respectively. The trading volume of BU2508 increased by 1,089 lots, while that of BU2509 decreased by 17,315 lots. The positions of both decreased [1]. - **Spot Market**: The wholesale prices in Shandong and the Yangtze River Delta increased and remained unchanged respectively. The refinery operating rate decreased by 1.29% to 31.95%, and the refinery inventory rate decreased by 0.79% to 25.10% [1]. - **Spread**: The basis (Shandong - 08) decreased by 18 yuan/ton, the 08 - 09 inter - period spread decreased by 3 yuan/ton, the Shandong - South China spread increased by 10, and the East China - South China spread remained unchanged [1]. 3.2 Trend Intensity The asphalt trend intensity is 1, indicating a relatively neutral to slightly positive outlook, with the intensity ranging from - 2 (most bearish) to 2 (most bullish) [10]. 3.3 Market News - **Capacity Utilization**: From July 24 - 30, 2025, the capacity utilization rate of 77 domestic heavy - traffic asphalt enterprises was 33.1%, a 4.3% increase from the previous period, mainly due to stable production in some major refineries in Shandong and Jinling Petrochemical [15]. - **Maintenance Volume**: From July 24 - 30, 2025, the domestic asphalt plant maintenance volume was 60.4 tons, a 5.9% decrease from the previous week, mainly due to the resumption of production in Xinjiang Meihuit and some Shandong refineries [15]. - **Shipment Volume**: From July 23 - 29, 2025, the total shipment volume of 54 domestic asphalt enterprises was 41.9 tons, a 1.0% increase from the previous period. Shipments in the Northeast weakened, while those in the East China increased significantly [15].

两融数据显示，该股最新融资余额为33.80亿元，近5日减少2.76亿元，降幅为7.56%。（数据宝） 7月30日恒力石化大宗交易一览 进一步统计，近3个月内该股累计发生20笔大宗交易，合计成交金额为6.62亿元。 证券时报·数据宝统计显示，恒力石化今日收盘价为16.10元，上涨3.67%，日换手率为0.51%，成交额为 5.77亿元，全天主力资金净流入621.63万元，近5日该股累计上涨1.45%，近5日资金合计净流出1914.19 万元。 | 成交量 | 成交金额 | 成交价 | 相对当日收盘 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | （万 | （万元） | 格 | 折溢价（%） | 买方营业部 | 卖方营业部 | | 股） | | （元） | | | | | 931.57 | 14998.28 | 16.10 | 0.00 | 华泰证券股份有限公司南 | 广发证券股份有限公司南 | | | | | | 京长江路证券营业部 | 京水佑岗证券营业部 | 恒力石化7月30日大宗交易平台出现一笔成交，成交量931.57万股，成交金额1.50亿元，大宗交易成交价 为 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints No information provided. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Contracts - The closing prices of BU main contract, BU09, and BU12 on July 29 were 3619, 3619, and 3485 respectively, with daily changes of 50, 50, and 44, and interval changes of -38, -38, and 0 [4]. - The closing prices of BU06 and BU03 on July 29 were 3416 and 3444 respectively, with daily changes of 38 and 16, and interval changes of 10 and 16 [4]. Trading Volume and Open Interest - The trading volume on July 29 was 327,129, a daily decrease of 16,850 and an interval increase of 117,100 [4]. - The open interest on July 29 was 445,049, a daily increase of 8 and an interval decrease of 34,604 [4]. Spot Prices - The low - end prices in Shandong, East China, South China, North China, and Northeast markets on July 29 were 3580, 3670, 3550, 3710, and 3850 respectively, with daily changes of 0, 0, 0, 10, and 0, and interval changes of -60, 0, -10, -30, and -50 [4]. - The prices of Jingbo (Haiyun), Runo, and Xinhai (Xin Bohai) on July 29 were 3690, 3660, and 3710 respectively, with daily changes of 0, -10, and 10, and interval changes of -30, -50, and -30 [4]. Basis and Monthly Spread - The basis of Shandong, East China, and South China on July 29 were -39, 51, and -69 respectively, with daily changes of -50, -50, and -50, and interval changes of -22, 38, and 28 [4]. - The monthly spreads of 03 - 06, 06 - 09, 09 - 12, and 12 - 03 on July 29 were 28, -203, 134, and 41 respectively, with daily changes of 21, -12, 6, and -15, and interval changes of 6, 48, -38, and -16 [4]. Crack Spread and Profit - The asphalt Brent crack spread on July 29 was -90, a daily decrease of 89 and an interval decrease of 137 [4]. - The asphalt Ma Rui profit on July 29 was -150, a daily decrease of 80 and an interval decrease of 122 [4]. - The comprehensive profit of ordinary refineries and Ma Rui - type refineries on July 29 were 393 and -6 respectively, with daily changes of -56 and -82, and interval changes of -66 and -92 [4]. - The import profits of South Korea - East China and Singapore - South China on July 29 were -153 and -1006 respectively, with daily changes of -5 and -6, and interval changes of -1 and -10 [4]. Related Prices - The price of Brent crude oil on July 29 was 70.0, a daily increase of 1.6 and an interval increase of 1.5 [4]. - The market prices of gasoline, diesel, and residue oil in Shandong on July 29 were 7795, 6675, and 3650 respectively, with daily changes of 39, 37, and 0, and interval changes of -43, -13, and 0 [4].

Group 1: Report Information - Report Name: Fuel Oil Daily Report, July 29, 2025 [1] - Researcher: Wu Xiaorong [2] - Futures Practitioner Certificate Number: F03108405 [2] - Investment Consulting Practitioner Certificate Number: Z0021537 [2] Group 2: Related Data - FU Main Contract Price on July 29, 2025: 2917, up 48 from the previous day [3] - FU Main Contract Position on July 29, 2025: 192,000 lots, down 9,000 lots from the previous day [3] - FU Warehouse Receipt on July 29, 2025: 110,980 tons, unchanged from the previous day [3] - LU Main Contract Price on July 29, 2025: 3640, up 95 from the previous day [3] - LU Main Contract Position on July 29, 2025: 70,000 lots, down 3,000 lots from the previous day [3] - LU Warehouse Receipt on July 29, 2025: 90 tons, unchanged from the previous day [3] - FU9 - 1 Spread on July 29, 2025: -2, up 8 from the previous day [3] - LU9 - 10 Spread on July 29, 2025: -9, down 7 from the previous day [3] - LU - FU Main Contract Spread on July 29, 2025: 723, up 47 from the previous day [3] - FU09 - Outer Market 08 Spread on July 29, 2025: -1.6, up 3.7 from the previous day [3] - LU09 - Outer Market 08 Spread on July 29, 2025: 7.3, up 4.0 from the previous day [3] Group 3: Market Research and Judgment Market Overview - Important Information: The crude oil processing volume of Mexico's Olmeca refinery at the Dos Bocas port soared to 233,000 barrels per day in June, doubling from May and reaching the highest processing volume since its operation. Pemex management announced this on July 28 [6] Market Judgment - High - Sulfur Fuel Oil: Domestic high - sulfur spot supply in the near - term remains abundant, and the near - month internal - external spread fluctuates at a low level below 0. Asian high - sulfur supply remains at a high level, and the Singapore high - sulfur spot premium continues to fluctuate at a low level. Russian refinery operations continued to decline in July, and near - term exports are expected to decline month - on - month. The Middle East geopolitical conflict has not worsened again but persists. Mexico's high - sulfur exports continue to decline due to the commissioning of Olmeca's second - stage unit and the decline in the operation of some refineries. The supply pressure of high - sulfur fuel oil in the third quarter is slightly less than expected. On the demand side, the peak season of refined oil products combined with the decline in high - sulfur cracking, and the increase in China's fuel oil consumption tax deduction are all beneficial to the growth of high - sulfur feedstock demand. The seasonal power - generation demand for high - sulfur fuel oil is gradually declining. Attention should be paid to the recent import logistics changes in Egypt and Saudi Arabia [7] - Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil: The low - sulfur fuel oil spot premium fluctuates. The low - sulfur supply continues to recover, and there is no specific driver for downstream demand. Nigeria's RFCC unit has returned from maintenance, but its operation is still expected to be unstable. Attention should be paid to the near - term low - sulfur export logistics changes. South Sudan's external low - sulfur raw material supply has gradually returned to the level at the beginning of 2024, and new cargo loading tenders for August have been successively announced. Al - Zour's low - sulfur exports have rebounded to the high level during the normal operation of the refinery, and exports to the Singapore region have increased significantly. The low - sulfur market in China has abundant supply and stable demand. Attention should be paid to the near - term adjustment and issuance rhythm of low - sulfur quotas [7] - Other Information: FU warehouse receipts are 110,980 tons, unchanged from the previous trading day; LU warehouse receipts are 90 tons, unchanged from the previous trading day. In the Singapore paper market, the high - sulfur Aug/Sep monthly spread is -2.8 to -3.0 US dollars per ton, and the low - sulfur Aug/Sep monthly spread is 2.3 to 2.0 US dollars per ton [7] Group 4: Related Attachments - Figures: Singapore high - sulfur spot premium, Singapore low - sulfur spot premium, Singapore high - and low - sulfur spread, Singapore LSFO - GO, high - sulfur fuel oil cracking, low - sulfur fuel oil cracking [10]

中石油、中石化、中海油三大公司及其他原油加工企业要组织好成品油生产和调运，确保市场稳定供 应，严格执行国家价格政策。各地相关部门要加大市场监督检查力度，严厉查处不执行国家价格政策的 行为，维护正常市场秩序。消费者可通过12315平台举报价格违法行为。 央视网消息：据国家发展改革委网站消息，自2025年7月15日国内成品油价格调整以来，国际市场 油价小幅波动，按现行国内成品油价格机制测算，7月29日的前10个工作日平均价格与7月15日前10个工 作日平均价格相比，调价金额每吨不足50元。根据《石油价格管理办法》第七条规定，本次汽、柴油价 格不作调整，未调金额纳入下次调价时累加或冲抵。 ...

自2025年7月15日国内成品油价格调整以来，国际市场油价小幅波动，按现行国内成品油价格机制测 算，7月29日的前10个工作日平均价格与7月15日前10个工作日平均价格相比，调价金额每吨不足50元。 根据《石油价格管理办法》第七条规定，本次汽、柴油价格不作调整，未调金额纳入下次调价时累加或 冲抵。 中石油、中石化、中海油三大公司及其他原油加工企业要组织好成品油生产和调运，确保市场稳定供 应，严格执行国家价格政策。各地相关部门要加大市场监督检查力度，严厉查处不执行国家价格政策的 行为，维护正常市场秩序。消费者可通过12315平台举报价格违法行为。 来源：中国政府网 转自：国家发展改革委微信、网站 2025年7月29日国内成品油价格按机制不作调整 ...

Core Viewpoint - The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) announced that there will be no adjustment to domestic refined oil prices during the latest pricing window, despite fluctuations in international oil prices [1] Pricing Mechanism - Since the last adjustment on July 15, the average price of refined oil for the first ten working days leading up to July 29 showed a price change of less than 50 yuan per ton, which does not meet the threshold for a price adjustment according to the current pricing mechanism [1] - The prices for gasoline and diesel will remain at the levels set in the previous adjustment, with Beijing's 92-octane gasoline priced at 7.26 yuan per liter, 95-octane gasoline at 7.73 yuan per liter, and 0-octane diesel at 6.95 yuan per liter [1] Adjustment History - This marks the fifteenth pricing adjustment of the year, with three instances of price suspension. The overall trend for this year has been characterized by "six increases, six decreases, and three suspensions" [1] - The next pricing window will open at 24:00 on August 12 [1] Market Outlook - Analysts from Longzhong Information predict a higher probability of price increases in the next round of adjustments due to potential supply risks from the U.S. shortening the deadline for new sanctions on Russia, ongoing traditional fuel consumption peaks in the U.S., and eased concerns over tariffs following an agreement between the U.S. and the EU [1]

Group 1: Chemical Industry Performance - The chemical raw materials index increased by 4.45%, the chemical machinery index rose by 2.16%, the chemical pharmaceuticals index grew by 0.94%, and the pesticide and fertilizer index surged by 5.43% during the week of July 21 to 25 [1] - The oil processing index increased by 3.53%, while the oil extraction index decreased by 1.86%, and the oil trading index rose by 1.20% [1] Group 2: Oil Price Trends - As of July 25, the WTI crude oil futures settled at $65.16 per barrel, down 3.24% from July 18, while Brent crude oil futures settled at $68.44 per barrel, down 1.21% from July 18 [1] Group 3: Petrochemical Product Price Changes - The top five petrochemical products with price increases were Vitamin D3 (up 12.12%), battery-grade lithium carbonate (up 11.62%), organic silicon DMC (up 11.61%), raw rubber (up 9.76%), and 107 glue (up 8.33%) [1] - The top five petrochemical products with price decreases were Atrazine (down 14.73%), methyl acrylate (down 9.47%), hydrochloric acid (down 6.32%), cracked carbon nine (down 5.84%), and folic acid (down 5.66%) [1] Group 4: Capital Market Performance of Chemical Companies - The top five performing listed chemical companies were Shangwei New Materials (up 97.37%), Yokogawa Precision (up 64.42%), Poly United (up 52.73%), Gaozheng Mining Explosives (up 39.83%), and Subote (up 31.83%) [2] - The bottom five performing listed chemical companies were Pioneer New Materials (down 11.67%), Dazhongnan (down 9.90%), Qide New Materials (down 9.61%), Yueyang Xingchang (down 9.38%), and Qingdao Jinwang (down 8.50%) [2]

沥青期货早报 2025年7月29日 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证：Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 1 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 目 录 1 每日观点 2 基本面/持仓数据 每日观点 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 供给端来看，根据隆众，2025年7月份国内沥青总计划排产量为253.9万吨，环比增幅5.9%, 同比增幅23.4%。本周国内石油沥青样本产能利用率为30.9204%，环比减少3.36个百分 点，全国样本企业出货26.9万吨，环比增加8.03%,样本企业产量为51.6万吨，环比减少 9.79%,样本企业装置检修量预估为64.2万吨，环比增加11.85%,本周炼厂有所减产，降低 供应压力。下周或将增加供给压力。 需求端来看，重交沥青开工率为28.8%，环比减少0.12个百分点，低于历史平均水平；建筑 沥青开工率为18.2%，环比持平，低于历史平均水平；改性沥青开 ...