行业 铝日报 日期 2025 年 11 月 19 日 有色金属研究团队 研究员：余菲菲 021-60635729 yufeifei@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3025190 研究员:张平 021-60635734 zhangpin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3015713 研究员：彭婧霖 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 每日报告 一、行情回顾与操作建议 数据来源：Wind，建信期货研究发展部 铝观点： 18 日沪铝继续下跌，跌幅较前几日有所扩大，主力 2601 跌至 21465，跌幅 1.22%，总持仓较上一交易日大幅减少 6 万余手至 680374 手，显示资金离场迹象。 现货上，伴随铝价下行，采购情绪进一步回升，但下游观望情绪也随之升温，尚 未出现大规模补库行为，日内华东贴水-30，中原贴水-150，华南贴水-165。进口 窗口关闭，但沪伦比值上修明显，现货进口亏损大幅收窄 500 至-1500 元/吨左右。 国产矿相 ...

Group 1 - The expectation of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut has increased, leading to a stabilization in Shanghai aluminum prices, with the main contract rising by 0.12% [1] - Recent data showed an increase in initial jobless claims in the U.S. to a two-month high, indicating a cooling labor market, which has contributed to the recovery of market sentiment regarding interest rate cuts [1] - The supply side of the domestic electrolytic aluminum market remains stable, with little change in operating capacity, while demand is experiencing a seasonal decline, particularly in construction and home appliance sectors [2] Group 2 - The overall consumption is showing a seasonal weakening trend, with major end-user manufacturers reducing raw material purchases, although the automotive market remains strong [2] - There has been a noticeable accumulation of aluminum inventory, reflecting a significant weakening in the consumption side, but overall inventory levels remain low, limiting pressure on prices [2] - In the context of weakening macroeconomic sentiment, aluminum prices are expected to experience fluctuations and adjustments [2]

本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议， 出处为瑞 达研究瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 铝类产业日报 2025/11/19 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 沪铝主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 21,570.00 | +105.00↑ 氧化铝期货主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 2,740.00 | -40.00↓ | | | 主力-连二合约价差:沪铝(日,元/吨) | -55.00 | +5.00↑ 主力-连二合约价差:氧化铝(日,元/吨) | -64.00 | -3.00↓ | | | 主力合约持仓量:沪铝(日,手) | 347,833.00 | -8714.00↓ 主力合约持仓量:氧化铝(日,手) | 426,124.00 | +21114.00↑ | | | LME铝注销仓单(日,吨) | 25,850.0 ...

Core Viewpoint - The major restructuring of Electric Power Investment (电投能源) is expected to resolve industry competition issues and enhance the company's capacity and performance [1] Group 1: Restructuring Impact - The restructuring is projected to increase the company's revenue by approximately 38%, net profit attributable to shareholders by about 27%, and total assets by around 46% based on the performance in the first half of 2025 [1] - The acquisition price for the target company is approximately 11.15 billion yuan, with the target company's net profit for the first nine months of 2025 estimated at around 1.4 billion yuan, resulting in a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 5.5 to 6 [1] Group 2: Financial Performance and Projections - The company's PE ratio is approximately 11, indicating a favorable valuation compared to the acquisition [1] - The company maintains profit forecasts, expecting net profits attributable to shareholders to be 5.6 billion yuan, 5.8 billion yuan, and 6 billion yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [1] Group 3: Business Segments and Growth Potential - The company has strong growth potential in its new energy generation and aluminum businesses, with a high proportion of long-term coal contracts contributing to stable coal operations [1] - The successful completion of the major asset restructuring is expected to strengthen the advantages of the coal-electricity-aluminum industry chain and enhance overall performance [1]

Core Viewpoint - Nanshan Aluminum International (02610) saw a stock price increase of over 4%, reaching HKD 43.88, with a trading volume of HKD 27.83 million, following a visit by the Chinese ambassador to Indonesia to the company's industrial park [1] Group 1: Company Performance - Nanshan Aluminum International reported a revenue of USD 597 million for the first half of the year, representing a year-on-year increase of 41% [1] - The company's net profit attributable to shareholders was USD 248 million, marking a significant year-on-year increase of 124.19% [1] - The company announced its first interim dividend of HKD 0.65 per share, with a payout ratio of approximately 20% due to its strong financial position [1] Group 2: Market Position and Future Prospects - Following the commissioning of its second-phase capacity, Nanshan Aluminum International is expected to become the largest alumina producer in Southeast Asia, enhancing its market influence in the region [1] - The visit by the Chinese ambassador emphasizes the company's commitment to safe and civilized production and harmonious park development [1]

Group 1 - Nanshan Aluminum International (02610.HK) saw an afternoon increase of over 4% [1] - As of the report, the stock rose by 4.28%, reaching HKD 43.88 [1] - The trading volume amounted to HKD 27.83 million [1]

Core Viewpoint - Nanshan Aluminum International (02610) saw a stock price increase of over 4%, reaching HKD 43.88, with a trading volume of HKD 27.83 million, following a visit by the Chinese ambassador to Indonesia to the company's industrial park [1] Group 1: Company Performance - Nanshan Aluminum International reported a revenue of USD 597 million for the first half of the year, representing a year-on-year increase of 41% [1] - The company's net profit attributable to shareholders was USD 248 million, marking a significant year-on-year increase of 124.19% [1] - The company announced its first interim dividend of HKD 0.65 per share, with a payout ratio of approximately 20% due to its strong financial position [1] Group 2: Market Position and Future Outlook - Following the commissioning of its second-phase capacity, Nanshan Aluminum International is expected to become the largest alumina producer in Southeast Asia, enhancing its market influence in the region [1] - The visit by the Chinese ambassador to the industrial park indicates a focus on safe and civilized production, as well as harmonious park development, which may positively impact the company's operations [1]

Core Viewpoint - Nanshan Aluminum International (600219) has seen a stock price increase of over 4%, currently trading at 43.88 HKD, driven by positive developments in its operations in Indonesia [1] Group 1: Company Performance - Nanshan Aluminum International reported a revenue of 597 million USD for the first half of the year, representing a year-on-year increase of 41% [1] - The company's net profit attributable to shareholders reached 248 million USD, marking a significant year-on-year increase of 124.19% [1] - The company has announced its first interim dividend of 0.65 HKD per share, with a payout ratio of approximately 20% due to its strong financial position [1] Group 2: Market Position and Expansion - Following the commissioning of its second-phase production capacity, Nanshan Aluminum International is set to become the largest alumina producer in Southeast Asia, enhancing its market influence in the region [1] - The recent visit by the Chinese ambassador to Indonesia highlights the company's commitment to safe and harmonious production practices in its Bintan Industrial Park [1]

中国宏桥以先旧后新方式配售4亿股新股，每股作价29.2港元，预计净集资约114.9亿港元。摩根士丹利 认为部分募集资金将用于股份回购以提升股东回报和支持股价，并对铝价前景持乐观态度，主要因供应 增长有限和需求尤其是储能领域需求强劲。稳健的基本面预计将推动宏桥2026年盈利表现，大摩维 持"增持"评级，目标价为30.6港元。 ...

Group 1 - China Hongqiao announced a placement of 400 million shares at a price of HKD 29.2 per share, representing approximately 4.03% of the enlarged share capital, with expected net fundraising of about HKD 11.49 billion [1] - Morgan Stanley believes that part of the raised funds will be used for share buybacks in the market to enhance shareholder returns and support the stock price [1] - Morgan Stanley remains optimistic about aluminum price prospects due to limited supply growth, both domestically (restricted by government production caps) and internationally (mainly constrained by power supply), alongside resilient demand, particularly from the energy storage sector [1] Group 2 - The robust industrial fundamentals are expected to support further increases in aluminum prices, which will boost Hongqiao's earnings performance in 2026 [1] - Morgan Stanley maintains an "Overweight" rating on Hongqiao with a target price of HKD 30.6 [1]