Report Industry Investment Ratings - Urea: Neutral (Oscillating) [1] - Soda Ash: Bullish [1] - Glass: Bullish [1] Core Views - Urea futures prices are expected to oscillate weakly due to a lack of substantial positive drivers in the domestic market, with attention on daily production changes, spot trading, and overall market sentiment [1] - Soda ash futures prices are recommended to be treated with a bullish oscillating approach, as market sentiment has improved but fundamental drivers remain weak, and focus should be on supply levels, downstream production, macro sentiment, and overall market sentiment [1] - In the short term, glass futures prices may continue their bullish trend, but industry supply - demand contradictions are difficult to fundamentally change, and investors should be cautious about this rise, paying attention to overall market sentiment, the macro - environment, and production policies [1] Summary by Directory Research Views - **Urea**: On Monday, the urea futures price oscillated weakly, with the main 09 contract closing at 1764 yuan/ton, a slight 0.64% decline. The spot market also weakened, with mainstream regional prices dropping by 10 - 40 yuan/ton. Supply decreased slightly to 19.53 tons per day, and demand sentiment weakened, with most mainstream regions' spot sales - to - production ratios between 30% - 40%. Export news will continue to have an impact, but the domestic market lacks positive drivers [1] - **Soda Ash**: On Monday, the soda ash futures price oscillated weakly at first and then rose rapidly. The main 09 contract closed up 1.31% at 1241 yuan/ton. The spot market was mostly stable, with some regional prices still falling. The transaction price in the Hebei region for heavy soda ash increased by 14 yuan/ton to 1221 yuan/ton. Supply increased, with the industry's operating rate rising to 84.76%. Demand was average, with downstream demand mainly for rigid needs, but recent market sentiment improvement led to some demand release [1] - **Glass**: On Monday, the glass futures price oscillated widely at first and then rose rapidly. The main 09 contract closed at 1102 yuan/ton, a 1.1% increase. The spot market was stable, with the average domestic float glass price at 1174 yuan/ton, and some regions seeing a 10 - 20 yuan/ton increase. Glass daily melting remained stable at 15.84 tons, and demand sentiment improved recently, with most mainstream regions' spot sales - to - production ratios above 90% and Hubei's reaching 150% [1] Market Information - **Urea**: On July 14, the urea futures warehouse receipts were 2630, a decrease of 15 from the previous day, and the valid forecasts were 0. The industry's daily production was 19.53 tons, a decrease of 0.13 tons from the previous workday but an increase of 1.80 tons compared to the same period last year. The industry's operating rate was 84.34%, a 2.46 - percentage - point increase from the same period last year. Small - particle urea spot prices in various domestic regions decreased, with Shandong at 1820 yuan/ton (- 40), Henan at 1840 yuan/ton (- 10), etc [4] - **Soda Ash & Glass**: On July 14, the soda ash futures warehouse receipts were 3394, a decrease of 70 from the previous day, with valid forecasts of 576; the glass futures warehouse receipts were 797, unchanged from the previous day. Soda ash spot prices varied by region. The industry's operating rate was 84.76%, up from 82.58% the previous workday. The average price of the float glass market was 1174 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, and the industry's daily production was 15.84 tons, also unchanged [6][7] Resource品团队研究成员介绍 - Zhang Xiaojin, the research director of resource products at Everbright Futures Research Institute, focuses on the sugar industry, with multiple awards in relevant fields [21] - Zhang Linglu, an analyst at Everbright Futures Research Institute, is responsible for research on urea, soda ash, glass, etc., and has won many industry awards [21] - Sun Chengzhen, an analyst at Everbright Futures Research Institute, is engaged in fundamental research and data analysis of cotton, cotton yarn, ferroalloys, etc., and has won relevant honors [21]

Investment Strategy - The report emphasizes that Xinjiang is benefiting from two major strategic shifts: from coastal economies to the Belt and Road Initiative, positioning Xinjiang as a frontier hub with geographical advantages. The balance is shifting towards energy security and dual carbon environmental goals, making coal chemical industry a focal point for Xinjiang's resource advantages [7][10] - The external environment for coal chemical development in Xinjiang is maturing, with factors such as rising coal prices and favorable industrial policies supporting the shift towards coal chemical production in the western regions of China [7][8] Xinjiang Index Situation - The Xinjiang index is reported at 109.14, with a week-on-week increase of 2.00%. The Xinjiang coal chemical investment index stands at 105.29, up 2.74%, and the Xinjiang state-owned enterprise reform index is at 113.32, reflecting a 1.24% increase [14] - The top three companies with the highest weekly gains include Guangdong Hongda (+16.69%), Fosda (+9.85%), and Xinyan Co. (+9.63%), while the companies with the largest declines are Baofeng Energy (-2.56%), Zhun Oil Co. (-3.10%), and ST Tianshan (-4.40%) [14] Key Data Tracking - Key prices in Xinjiang include Q5000 mixed coal at 100 yuan/ton, Q5200 mixed coal at 197 yuan/ton, and main coking coal at 700 yuan/ton. The price of methanol is reported at 1760 yuan/ton, with a price difference of -647.5 yuan/ton compared to East China [21][22] - In May 2025, the coal railway shipment volume from state-owned key coal mines reached 3.308 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 16.60%, while the raw coal production in Xinjiang was 46.651 million tons, up 23.44% year-on-year [21][22] Key News and Company Announcements - The Ministry of Ecology and Environment has accepted the environmental impact assessment for the National Energy Group's Hami Energy Integrated Innovation Base project, which includes a significant investment in coal-to-oil technology [41][43] - Two coal-to-natural gas projects in Xinjiang have passed environmental impact assessments, each with a production capacity of 2 billion cubic meters per year, utilizing advanced coal-to-gas technology and low-carbon techniques [41][43] - Recent developments include the initiation of a 40 billion yuan coal tar deep processing project and a 257 billion yuan coal-to-ethylene glycol project, indicating a strong push towards enhancing Xinjiang's coal chemical industry [41][43] Overview of Key Projects - The report outlines several key coal chemical projects in Xinjiang, including the National Energy Group's coal-to-oil project with an investment of 170 billion yuan and a capacity of 400,000 tons per year, and the Xinjiang Shanneng Chemical's coal-to-olefins project with an investment of 209 billion yuan [46][47] - The total planned capacity for coal-to-natural gas is 41.6 billion cubic meters, coal-to-oil is 5 million tons, coal-to-olefins is 9.45 million tons, and coal-to-methanol is 17.5 million tons, with a total investment of 962.8 billion yuan [46][47]

注：本公司收购国家能源集团杭锦能源有限责任公司（"杭锦能源"）100%股权的交 易已完成。自 2025 年 2 月起，本公司主要运营指标包含杭锦能源相关业务量，并对上年同 期本公司主要运营指标进行了重述。 证券代码：601088 证券简称：中国神华 公告编号：临 2025-036 中国神华能源股份有限公司 2025 年 6 月份主要运营数据公告 中国神华能源股份有限公司（"本公司"）董事会及全体董事保证本公告内 容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述或者重大遗漏，并对其内容的真实性、准确 性和完整性承担法律责任。 | 运营指标 | 单位 | 2025 | 年 | 2024 | 年 | 同比变化 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | （重述后） | | （%） | | | | | 月 6 | 累计 | 月 6 | 累计 | 月 6 | 累计 | | （一）煤炭 | | | | | | | | | 1. 商品煤产量 | 百万吨 | 27.6 | 165.4 | 28.0 | 168.2 | (1.4) | (1.7) | | 煤炭 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints - Although the recent sentiment in the commodity market has improved, the rebound is mainly concentrated in the black and new energy - related industries. Methanol currently has high upstream profits and low downstream profits, lacking the logic for valuation repair, so its performance is dull. With the cooling of the geopolitical conflict in the Middle East and the end of the squeeze on port paper goods, the spot liquidity is no longer tight, the spot price has fallen, and methanol has entered a weak and volatile state. The fundamentals of methanol have changed little, with high supply pressure due to high - profit - stimulated upstream production and weak downstream demand growth, making the overall situation of methanol weak. It is recommended to beware of the risk of correction [3][85] - Unilateral strategy: Weak and volatile, beware of correction risk; Hedge strategy: Wait and see [4][86] Summary by Directory 1. Spot Market - Methanol spot market prices declined this week. On Friday, the basis quotation was around 09 - 5 yuan/ton, and the basis quotation for paper goods in late August was around 09 + 30 yuan/ton [8] 2. Basis and Spread - **Basis Quotation**: The methanol basis quotation fluctuated weakly this week, and the basis quotation for paper goods in late August was around 09 + 35 yuan/ton [18] - **Regional Basis**: The coastal basis of methanol fluctuated this week, and the inland basis also fluctuated. The inland market price and the market price in the northwest region fluctuated this week [25][30] - **Regional Spread**: The spread between East China and inland regions of methanol fluctuated weakly [42] - **Near - and Far - Month Spread**: It is recommended to wait and see for the spread for now [50] - **PP - 3MA Spread**: The PP - 3MA spread rebounded oscillatingly this week. The strategy of going long on PP and short on MA can be considered for a small - scale holding [56] 3. Industrial Chain Profits - **Methanol Production**: There are many new overhaul devices, and the methanol operating rate has weakened slightly. Many overhaul devices have resumed production, and the methanol output has started to increase [62][66] - **Downstream Operating Rate**: The operating rate of dimethyl ether fluctuated weakly, the operating rate of formaldehyde fluctuated, and the operating rate of methanol - to - olefins in the northwest region oscillated at a high level [73] - **MTO**: This week, the operating rate of methanol - to - olefins plants oscillated, and the MTO profit rebounded significantly [76] 4. Market Expectation - Methanol will be in a weak and volatile state, and it is necessary to beware of the risk of correction. The unilateral strategy is weak and volatile, beware of correction risk; the hedge strategy is to wait and see [3][4][85][86]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that Guangxi plans to establish the first coastal modern coal chemical industry base in the Beibu Gulf region, aiming for a significant increase in industrial output by 2035 [1][2] - The development plan includes the construction of a diverse petrochemical industry system, with key products such as 1.8 million tons/year of methanol and 1.2 million tons/year of acetic acid already in place [1] - The plan aims to create a modern coal chemical industry base characterized by advanced technology and green low-carbon practices, targeting an additional output value of 180 billion by 2035 [1] Group 2 - The strategy focuses on building downstream high-end industrial clusters in four key areas: advanced manufacturing, light industry and textiles, green energy, and carbon reduction [2] - The spatial layout of the industry is based on a "dual-core, one belt, multiple linkages" approach, with key development zones identified in Qinzhou and Beihai [2] - The implementation of this development plan is expected to elevate the local coal chemical industry and serve as a model for green development in the national coal chemical sector [2]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - Urea: Oscillating [2] - Soda Ash: Oscillating [2] - Glass: Relatively Strong [2] Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Urea: On Thursday, the spot price of urea continued to rise, with the market price in mainstream areas increasing by 10 - 20 yuan/ton. The daily output decreased to 19.61 tons, a daily decrease of 0.3 tons. The demand side continued to advance, but the current market focus is on the Indian tender and subsequent export policies. If there is no additional positive driving force, the market sentiment may decline, and short - term long positions can be appropriately stopped for profit [2]. - Soda Ash: On Thursday, the spot quotation of soda ash was mostly stable. The supply side remained unchanged, while the demand side continued to decline, and enterprises continued to accumulate inventory. The fundamentals are still weak, but the futures market is driven by macro and policy expectations. It is not recommended to be overly bullish [2]. - Glass: On Thursday, the spot market of glass was stable. The supply was also stable, and the demand side sentiment continued to improve. The inventory decreased by 2.87%. The futures market is centered on macro - policy expectations, and it is expected that the futures price of glass will run in a relatively strong state [2]. Group 3: Summary According to Related Catalogs Market Information - Urea - On July 10, the futures warehouse receipts of urea on the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange were 2,645, an increase of 400 from the previous trading day, and the valid forecast was 0 [5]. - On July 10, the daily output of the urea industry was 19.61 tons, a decrease of 0.3 tons from the previous working day and an increase of 1.73 tons from the same period last year; the current start - up rate was 84.69%, a rebound of 2.12 percentage points from 82.57% in the same period last year [5]. - On July 10, the spot prices of small - particle urea in various domestic regions increased to varying degrees, with Shandong at 1,860 yuan/ton (+20), Henan at 1,850 yuan/ton (+10), etc. [5] - As of July 9, the inventory of domestic urea enterprises was 96.77 tons, a decrease of 5.08 tons (-4.99%) from the previous week [6] Market Information - Soda Ash & Glass - On July 10, the number of soda ash futures warehouse receipts on the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange was 3,481, a decrease of 255 from the previous trading day, with an effective forecast of 576; the number of glass futures warehouse receipts was 799, unchanged from the previous trading day [8]. - On July 10, the spot prices of soda ash in different regions varied, with the light soda ash in North China at 1,180 yuan/ton and the heavy soda ash at 1,300 yuan/ton, etc. [8] - As of the week of July 10, the weekly output of soda ash was 70.90 tons, and the industry capacity utilization rate was 81.32%, both remaining flat week - on - week [8]. - As of July 10, the inventory of soda ash manufacturers was 186.34 tons, an increase of 1.53 tons (+0.83%) from Monday and an increase of 5.39 tons (+2.98%) from last Thursday [8]. - On July 10, the average market price of float glass was 1,173 yuan/ton, unchanged day - on - day; the daily output of the industry was 15.84 tons, unchanged day - on - day [8]. - As of July 10, the inventory of float glass enterprises was 67.102 million weight boxes, a decrease of 1.983 million weight boxes (-2.87%) from the previous period, and an increase of 5.54% year - on - year. The inventory days decreased by 1 day to 28.9 days [8] Chart Analysis - The report presents multiple charts including the closing prices, basis, trading volume and positions, price spreads, and spot price trends of urea, soda ash, and glass, as well as the futures price spreads between urea - methanol and glass - soda ash [10][11][13][16][17][20]

Core Viewpoint - The development of the Fischer-Tropsch iron-based catalyst, known as CNFT, significantly enhances the efficiency of coal-to-oil conversion, addressing key challenges in the coal indirect liquefaction technology [1][2]. Group 1: Catalyst Development - The CNFT catalyst was developed by the National Energy Group to improve coal-to-oil technology, which is crucial for energy security in China due to its rich coal and limited oil resources [2]. - Initial challenges included insufficient wear resistance and stability, as well as low activity and yield of high-value products [2]. - The research team innovatively combined iron and silicon under controlled conditions, enhancing catalyst strength while maintaining active surface area, and utilized low-temperature preparation to prevent pore structure issues [2][3]. Group 2: Industrial Scaling Challenges - The transition from laboratory to industrial scale faced multiple challenges, including issues with wear resistance and product quality during the scaling process [3][4]. - The team conducted extensive trials, including a 2000-hour long-term operation test, to refine the catalyst formulation and address industrial application requirements [3][4]. - Continuous production faced difficulties due to the viscosity of the catalyst slurry, which required custom equipment and solutions to ensure stable operation [4]. Group 3: Performance and Impact - The CNFT-1 catalyst has been successfully implemented in major coal indirect liquefaction plants, resulting in a 5% increase in production capacity and extending maintenance intervals from one year to three years [5]. - The catalyst also improved the yield of high-value oil wax by 14% compared to similar catalysts, driving overall industry advancements [5]. - Following the success of CNFT-1, a new generation of low CO2 selective CNFT-2 catalyst was developed, reducing CO2 emissions by 15,000 tons annually for every million tons of oil produced [5].

Summary of Huabei Mining Conference Call Industry and Company Overview - The conference call pertains to Huabei Mining, a company involved in coal mining and related businesses, particularly focusing on coking coal and non-coal operations [2][3][4]. Key Points and Arguments 1. **Coking Coal Price Trends**: In Q3, the long-term contract price for coking coal decreased by approximately 100-130 RMB/ton compared to Q2, leading the company to a near break-even state [2][4]. 2. **Production and Financial Performance**: - Q1 production was around 4.3 million tons, which did not meet expectations due to complex geological conditions. Q2 saw an improvement with an increase of about 200,000 tons [3]. - The coking business turned profitable in Q2, recovering from a loss of 215 million RMB in Q1 to profitability in Q2, with a reduction in losses exceeding 200 million RMB [3][8]. - Non-coal business revenue increased by approximately 300 million RMB compared to Q1, with significant contributions from the titanium-zinc purification project and the forest mining sector [2][14]. 3. **Cost Management**: The company implemented cost reduction measures, achieving a coal cost of about 520 RMB/ton in Q1, a decrease of approximately 70 RMB year-on-year. The target for the full year is to maintain costs around 500 RMB/ton, although further reductions may be limited due to high labor costs [12][14]. 4. **Market Outlook**: Short-term coking coal prices may rebound due to supply constraints and steel mills' restocking needs. However, long-term demand is expected to weaken due to seasonal factors and low inventory strategies at steel mills [6]. 5. **Dividend Policy**: The company plans to increase its dividend payout ratio from 30% to 35% and has established a three-year shareholder return plan from 2025 to 2027 [12][13]. 6. **Non-Coal Mining Performance**: The non-coal mining sector showed improved performance in Q2, with profits increasing significantly due to the gradual release of capacity from new mines [10]. Additional Important Information - **Regulatory Environment**: The national anti-involution policy currently does not impact the coal and steel industries significantly, and the company has not received any related directives [7]. - **Future Production Plans**: The company has no plans to reduce production, emphasizing the need to maintain cash flow and fulfill social responsibilities [5]. - **Profitability Projections**: The profitability per ton of coal was approximately over 100 RMB in Q2, but is expected to decrease in Q3 due to further price declines [15]. This summary encapsulates the essential insights from the conference call, highlighting the company's performance, market conditions, and strategic outlook.

港口持续累库 甲醇观点 市场要闻与重要数据 甲醇日报 | 2025-07-10 内地方面：Q5500鄂尔多斯动力煤410元/吨（+0），内蒙煤制甲醇生产利润668元/吨（-3）；内地甲醇价格方面，内 蒙北线1963元/吨（-3），内蒙北线基差191元/吨（-2），内蒙南线1980元/吨（-40）；山东临沂2280元/吨（+0），鲁南 基差108元/吨（+1）；河南2165元/吨（-10），河南基差-7元/吨（-9）；河北2185元/吨（+0），河北基差73元/吨（+1）。 隆众内地工厂库存356900吨（+4620），西北工厂库存228000吨（+4500）；隆众内地工厂待发订单221240吨（-12010）， 西北工厂待发订单100000吨（-10400）。 港口方面：太仓甲醇2385元/吨（-17），太仓基差13元/吨（-16），CFR中国277美元/吨（-3），华东进口价差-32元/ 吨（-1），常州甲醇2400元/吨；广东甲醇2400元/吨（-15），广东基差28元/吨（-14）。隆众港口总库存718900吨（+45240）， 江苏港口库存395000吨（+62000），浙江港口库存175500吨（- ...

光大期货煤化工商品日报 EVERBRIGHT FUTURES 1 光大期货煤化工商品日报（2025 年 7 月 9 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | 尿素 | 周二尿素现货价格多数稳定，山西等价 区域仍有 幅上调。目 山东、河南地区 市场价格分别稳定在1820元/吨、1810元/吨。供应波动不大，昨日尿素行业日产量 | 看涨 | | | 19.94万吨，日环比持平。需求端在市场情绪回暖 动下进一步跟进，现货 价成交 | | | | 明显放量，主流地区产销率多数 升至100%以上，但区域间表现仍有分化，成交偏 | | | | 弱地区产销率在60-70% 右。昨日 间印标价格出 ，东海岸最 价CFR495 元/ | | | | 吨，价格较高，对国内市场情绪存在提振效应，再加上 季 需求支撑、商品市场 | | | | 情绪整体回暖，预计尿素期货价格短期走势仍偏强为主，但保供 价大环 上 高 | | | | 度不宜过分 观。后期关注出口政策变化及出口落 情况。 | | | | 周二纯碱现货报价继续稳定，贸易商环节报价跟随盘面情绪有所回暖，昨日沙河 及周边 ...