Core Viewpoint - China has announced export controls on seven key rare earth elements, highlighting its critical role in the global supply chain and shifting the balance of power from the West to China in setting industry standards [1][3]. Group 1: China's Export Control Measures - China holds 49% of global rare earth reserves (44 million tons) and 69.2% of annual production (270,000 tons), emphasizing its dominance in the rare earth sector [1]. - The export controls aim to protect China's rare earth resources and ensure they are used for peaceful and sustainable development, addressing over-exploitation and potential security threats from other nations [3][5]. - China is implementing advanced digital technologies for precise monitoring of mining activities, developing new eco-friendly refining processes, and utilizing big data and AI to predict global demand [5]. Group 2: Industry Transformation and Global Impact - The export controls have prompted a restructuring of global industry dynamics, with Chinese rare earth companies collaborating closely with domestic sectors like automotive and renewable energy to create a more stable and efficient supply chain [11]. - In the electric vehicle sector, partnerships are being formed to develop new rare earth permanent magnet motors, enhancing efficiency and reducing production costs [11]. - The shift in the rare earth industry reflects a broader trend where China is moving from being dependent on foreign technology to leading in various sectors, including health with innovative products like AKK001, which challenges Western dominance in weight loss solutions [7][9].

研究所 分析师:李帅华 SAC 登记编号:S1340522060001 Email:lishuaihua@cnpsec.com 分析师:魏欣 SAC 登记编号:S1340524070001 Email:weixin@cnpsec.com 研究助理:杨丰源 SAC 登记编号:S1340124050015 Email:yangfengyuan@cnpsec.com 证券研究报告：有色金属|行业周报 发布时间：2025-06-17 行业投资评级 强于大市 |维持 行业基本情况 | 收盘点位 | | 5026.6 | | --- | --- | --- | | 52 | 周最高 | 5047.03 | | 52 | 周最低 | 3700.9 | 行业相对指数表现 2024-06 2024-08 2024-11 2025-01 2025-04 2025-06 -15% -11% -7% -3% 1% 5% 9% 13% 17% 有色金属 沪深300 资料来源：聚源，中邮证券研究所 近期研究报告 《中广核矿业（HK1164）签订新销售 框架协议，充分受益铀价上行》 - 2025.06.10 有色金属行业报告 （2025. ...

Group 1 - The largest rare earth-themed ETF, Jiashi Zhongzheng Rare Earth Industry ETF (516150), has been renamed to "Rare Earth ETF Jiashi" starting June 17, enhancing its recognition and aiding investor decision-making [1] - Following the recent US-China tariff negotiation framework agreement, there are signals of marginal easing in China's rare earth export control policies, leading to a sustained strength in the rare earth concept [1] - As of June 16, the Jiashi Rare Earth ETF (516150) has seen significant investor interest, with a trading volume of 2.549 billion yuan and a total share count of 2.161 billion, both reaching new highs in the past year [1] Group 2 - According to CITIC Securities research, China's rare earth control is not fully relaxed but has seen a temporary easing in the civilian sector, maintaining a high valuation for the rare earth magnetic materials sector [2] - The demand for overseas rare earth magnetic materials is high, and the recovery of exports is expected to narrow the price gap between domestic and international markets, leading to profit recovery for magnetic material companies [2] - Investors are advised to continue focusing on Jiashi Rare Earth ETF (516150) for on-market investments, while off-market investors are recommended to consider Jiashi Zhongzheng Rare Earth Industry ETF linked funds (Class A 011035, Class C 011036) to seize rare earth investment opportunities [2]

2025 年 06 月 17 日 双融日报 --鑫融讯 分析师：万蓉 S1050511020001 wanrong@cfsc.com.cn 市场情绪：76 分（较热） 最近一年大盘走势 资料来源：Wind，华鑫证券研究 -15 -10 -5 0 5 10 15 20 25 (%) 沪深300 相关研究 ▌ 华鑫市场情绪温度指标：（较热） 华鑫市场情绪温度指标显示，昨日市场情绪综合评分为 76 分，市场情绪处于"较热"。历史市场情绪趋势变化可参 考图表 1。 ▌ 热点主题追踪 今日热点主题：稀土、机器人、减肥药 1、稀土主题：稀土是镧系元素和钪、钇共十七种金属元 素的总称。稀土永磁材料是现在已知的综合性能最高的一种 永磁材料。稀土在工业和新材料领域举足轻重的地位，各国 将它作为一种战略储备资源；中国稀土产业世界第一。相关 标的：中国稀土（000831）、金力永磁（300748） 2、机器人主题：据"中科院之声"消息，中国科学院沈 阳自动化研究所日前研发了一套"刚柔耦合"的下肢多关节 康复外骨骼机器人，有望为下肢偏瘫患者提供运动功能重建 与行为辅助服务。结果显示，该研究方法有效实现了运动学 重塑、步态模式自然性与 ...

Group 1 - The U.S. Secretary of Commerce, Raimondo, has made statements indicating that the U.S. will not sell chips to China and will maintain high tariffs of 55%, suggesting a potential escalation in trade tensions [1] - China holds over 90% of the global rare earth processing technology, which is crucial for high-tech materials and key components in U.S. military equipment, indicating a significant dependency of the U.S. on Chinese rare earths [3] - The U.S. has large stockpiles of rare earth minerals but does not process them domestically, having secretly imported 30,000 tons of semi-finished rare earths from China last year, highlighting a reliance on Chinese resources [3] Group 2 - The current geopolitical landscape suggests that if the U.S. maintains its stance, China could leverage its control over rare earth resources to gain a strategic advantage in the ongoing trade conflict [4] - There is a need for close monitoring of domestic policies regarding rare earth resources in China to identify potential strategic opportunities in response to U.S. actions [4] - The U.S. appears to be preparing to suppress China's high-tech industry and cut off its access to international markets, raising questions about the sustainability of the current imbalanced trade relationship [6]

Core Viewpoint - The essence of the rare earth industry competition is not merely about resource availability or technological barriers, but rather the complex ecological system that supports rare earth refining [1][3][12]. Group 1: Resource and Technology - The United States holds approximately 10% of the world's rare earth reserves, with the Mountain Pass mine being a significant resource [1]. - The technological gap in rare earth separation and purification processes between the U.S. and China is minimal [1]. Group 2: Ecological System - The refining process of materials like gallium exemplifies the paradox of industrial miracles and resource consumption, requiring substantial raw materials and energy [3]. - China's industrial network effectively utilizes by-products from rare earth refining, significantly reducing comprehensive costs by over 40% [5]. Group 3: Challenges in the U.S. - The U.S. faces critical challenges in rebuilding its rare earth supply chain due to a lack of integrated industries to manage by-products, leading to increased environmental costs [7]. - Historical precedents, such as the bankruptcy of Molycorp, highlight the vulnerabilities of isolated production models in the face of price fluctuations [9]. Group 4: Capital and Investment - The financial implications of establishing a rare earth industry in the U.S. are daunting, with initial investments in the billions and negative cash flow concerns [11]. - The potential for U.S. projects to become reliant on government subsidies raises questions about their long-term viability [11]. Group 5: Global Industry Dynamics - The rare earth dilemma reflects a deeper shift in global industrial power, with China's three-decade investment in a comprehensive rare earth ecosystem creating a formidable competitive advantage [12]. - The real competition in the industry has shifted from mining and laboratory work to the ability to construct and maintain ecological systems [14].

Group 1 - The core focus of the recent US-China negotiations is on export controls, particularly in the context of the ongoing trade war, highlighting the shift from traditional trade issues to supply chain restrictions [2] - The competition between the US and China is increasingly about who controls the levers of global economic power, with significant implications for businesses and investors [2][3] - Analysts suggest that the use of export controls may lead to trade negotiations resembling Cold War-era arms control dialogues, indicating a new economic landscape [2][3] Group 2 - China holds a dominant position in many critical industries, accounting for approximately one-third of global manufacturing output, which gives it potential leverage in key supply chains [3] - The US maintains a strong influence in advanced technology sectors and has utilized its economic power to impose sanctions on countries like Iran and Russia [4] - The Biden administration has tightened export controls on high-end semiconductors to China, aiming to thwart China's ambitions to become the leading global technology power [4] Group 3 - The COVID-19 pandemic has exposed vulnerabilities in global supply chains, prompting companies to enhance their supply chain resilience, yet China's control over critical supply chains remains largely unchallenged [5] - Companies are increasingly required to bifurcate their supply chains in response to trade tensions, treating the US and China as separate markets [6] - The recent trade truce included an agreement for China to expedite approvals for magnet exports, but the six-month limit on export licenses indicates potential future restrictions [6]

Group 1 - USA Rare Earth has signed a memorandum of cooperation with Moog Electric Motion Solutions to collaborate on the supply of neodymium-iron-boron magnets [1][2] - The agreement includes plans for USA Rare Earth to begin commercial production of related magnet products early next year, with initial products supplied directly to Moog for the development of critical equipment for data centers [1][2] - Moog will develop a prototype for high-performance cooling liquid distribution pumps for global data centers using neodymium magnets provided by USA Rare Earth, which will enhance energy efficiency [1][2] Group 2 - This collaboration is significant as it represents USA Rare Earth’s latest commercial agreement since launching its innovation lab in Stillwater, Oklahoma, in March [2] - The partnership marks a critical step in the localization of the North American rare earth supply chain, reinforcing USA Rare Earth’s competitive advantage in the high-performance magnetic materials market [2] - The demand for efficient cooling systems is growing exponentially due to the continuous expansion of global data center construction, with Moog's solutions being highly regarded for their energy efficiency [2] Group 3 - As of the report, USA Rare Earth shares rose over 6%, trading at $14.05 [3]

2025年6月，美国《华尔街日报》一篇关于稀土的报道再次引发热议。文章直言："如果中国彻底切断对美稀土供应，美国军工、电子、新能源等关键产业将 面临'断粮'风险。"这不是危言耸听，而是现实。那么问题来了——稀土到底是什么？为什么它能卡住美国的命脉？ 中国的稀土优势，不只是产量大根据美国地质调查局（USGS）发布的2024年数据：全球稀土总产量约为30万吨； 其中中国产量为20.8万吨，占比高达 69.23%； 而稀土储量方面，中国占全球约37%，位居第二； 但更关键的是——中国控制了全球超过90%的稀土加工和提纯能力。 这才是真正的"杀手锏"。 你以为美国不挖稀土吗？不是不挖，是不敢挖、也挖不起。稀土矿虽然分布广泛，但开采过程极其污染环境。过去几十年，中国为此付出了巨大的生态代 价。赣州、包头这些地方，曾经因为盗采稀土，导致山体塌陷、水土流失、重金属污染严重，修复费用动辄数十亿起步。而美国呢？上世纪也曾拥有全球最 大稀土矿——加州芒廷帕斯矿。但由于环保压力和技术门槛，一度关闭多年，直到近年才重新启动。即便如此，其稀土原料仍需运往中国进行提纯。换句话 说，美国不是没有稀土，而是无法快速、低成本地完成整个产业链闭 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the escalating trade and technology conflict between the U.S. and China, particularly focusing on the strategic importance of rare earth elements and semiconductors in this rivalry [3][4][6]. Group 1: U.S.-China Trade Conflict - Following the first round of tariffs imposed by the U.S. in April, China began restricting export licenses, leading to warnings from U.S. manufacturers about potential production halts [2]. - The U.S. was caught off guard by China's control over rare earth elements, which are crucial for various technologies, including electric motors and military applications [3][5]. Group 2: Semiconductor Industry and Investments - Since mid-2019, leading Chinese chip manufacturers have invested $33.5 billion in capital expenditures and $4 billion in R&D, while Huawei reportedly spends approximately 180 billion yuan annually on R&D [4]. - The U.S. has invested only $439 million since early 2020 to establish a rare earth supply chain, highlighting a significant disparity in investment compared to China's extensive funding in the semiconductor sector [5]. Group 3: Future Implications and Military Concerns - The article suggests that the advancements in rare earth magnets could revolutionize mechanical power, making devices smaller, stronger, and more efficient, which could impact future warfare strategies [5]. - There are concerns that the U.S. military may find itself lacking critical minerals and batteries needed to counteract drone threats in future conflicts, emphasizing the risks of relying on foreign supply chains [6].