Core Viewpoint - New Oriental Education Technology (Group) Co., Ltd. reported a 9.4% year-over-year increase in revenue for the fourth quarter of fiscal year 2025, reaching $1.243 billion, while net revenue excluding certain business segments rose by 18.7% [1][3] Financial Performance - For the fourth quarter of fiscal year 2025, New Oriental's net revenue was $1.243 billion, up from $1.137 billion in the same quarter last year, marking a 9.4% increase [1][2] - The company reported an operating loss of $8.674 million for the quarter, compared to an operating profit of $1.050 million in the previous year [2] - Net profit attributable to New Oriental shareholders was $7.1 million, a decrease of 73.7% year-over-year [3] Business Segments - Revenue from overseas exam preparation and consulting services grew by approximately 14.6% and 8.2% respectively [3] - Domestic exam preparation services for adults and college students recorded a year-over-year growth of about 17.0% [3] - New educational businesses maintained strong growth, with a revenue increase of 32.5% [3] Shareholder Returns - The board approved an extension of the share repurchase program, increasing the total authorized repurchase value from $400 million to $700 million [3][4] - As of May 31, 2025, the company repurchased approximately 14.5 million American Depositary Shares (ADS) for a total value of about $700 million [4] Deferred Revenue and Cash Position - As of May 31, 2025, New Oriental's deferred revenue balance was $1.955 billion, an increase of 9.8% from $1.78 billion a year earlier [5] - The company reported cash and cash equivalents of $1.612 billion, with additional short-term investments totaling $1.874 billion [5] Future Guidance - For the first quarter of fiscal year 2026, the company expects net revenue to be between $1.464 billion and $1.507 billion, representing a year-over-year growth rate of 2% to 5% [6] - For the full fiscal year 2026, net revenue is projected to be between $5.145 billion and $5.39 billion, indicating a growth rate of 5% to 10% [7] Market Position - As of the latest closing, New Oriental's stock price was HKD 36.5, with a market capitalization of HKD 59.688 billion [8]

Core Viewpoint - The dialogue reveals the multifaceted identity of Zhang Xuefeng, highlighting his roles in education, business, and public affairs, while emphasizing his genuine approach to helping parents and students navigate the complexities of college admissions [1][2]. Group 1: Government and Education Insights - Zhang emphasizes the importance of local government work reports for parents when making decisions about their children's education and career paths, suggesting that these reports provide critical insights into local industry and employment opportunities [5][7]. - The company actively engages in charitable activities, donating approximately 5 million yuan annually to support education in various regions, reflecting its commitment to social responsibility [10][11]. Group 2: Company Management and Strategy - Zhang's management style is characterized by a hands-off approach, allowing his team to handle day-to-day operations while he focuses on strategic decisions and new business initiatives [19][20]. - The company prioritizes quality in its educational materials, with Zhang personally reviewing all teaching resources to ensure they meet high standards before being offered to students [19][21]. Group 3: Business Philosophy and Employee Relations - Zhang believes that successful entrepreneurship is about creating a fair profit-sharing mechanism rather than merely focusing on revenue generation [31]. - The company does not set specific KPIs for employees, instead fostering a culture where employee satisfaction and personal growth are prioritized [32][33]. Group 4: Market Position and Pricing Strategy - Zhang supports regulatory measures against overpriced college admission services, asserting that such actions are necessary to maintain industry integrity [52][53]. - He expresses confidence that his company's pricing reflects the value of its services, suggesting that quality will prevail over lower-priced competitors in the long run [55][56]. Group 5: Personal Insights and Future Aspirations - Zhang emphasizes the importance of enjoying life and not equating success with financial metrics, advocating for a focus on personal fulfillment and meaningful experiences [118]. - He envisions a legacy that impacts future generations, highlighting the role of his company in shaping the educational journeys of students and the lives of their families [118][120].

Core Viewpoint - The report from CMB International maintains a target price of HKD 46 for New Oriental-S (09901) and a "Buy" rating, despite a downward adjustment in revenue and operating profit forecasts for the fiscal years 2026 and 2027 [1] Revenue and Profit Forecasts - The company has lowered its revenue forecast by approximately 3% for the fiscal years 2026 and 2027, expecting revenue growth rates of 10% and 14% respectively [1] - Operating profit is expected to decrease by about 17%, with operating profit margins projected at 10.2% and 10.5%, showing a slight increase compared to the fiscal year 2025 [1] Business Segment Performance - CMB International remains optimistic about the demand and growth prospects for K12 education and training-related businesses [1] - The first quarter guidance was below expectations mainly due to seasonal factors, but growth rates are expected to recover in the second to fourth quarters [1] Valuation Methodology - The valuation method has been adjusted to SOTP (Sum of the Parts), assigning a price-to-earnings ratio of 15 times for K12 business and 8 times for study abroad business for the fiscal year 2026, corresponding to profit growth rates of +22% and -10% respectively [1] Quarterly Performance - In the fourth quarter of fiscal year 2025, revenue increased by 9.4% year-on-year, surpassing the expectations of CMB International and other institutions, which were 2% and 5% respectively [1] - Excluding Dongfang Zhenxuan (01797), education and cultural tourism revenue grew by 19% year-on-year, with an education operating profit margin of 6.5%, an increase of 410 basis points compared to the same period last year, attributed to effective cost reduction and efficiency improvement measures [1] Management Guidance - The management has indicated that the group’s revenue is expected to increase by 5-10% for the fiscal year 2026, compared to the market expectation of 12% [1] - The main adjustment is a downward revision of the growth forecast for overseas-related business to a decline of 5%, while the growth rate for K12-related business remains in line with market expectations at 19% [1] - The company is accelerating cost optimization efforts, aiming to achieve stable or slightly increased operating profit margins for the year [1]

Core Viewpoint - The report from CMB International maintains a target price of HKD 46 for New Oriental-S (09901) and a "Buy" rating, while adjusting revenue and operating profit forecasts for the fiscal years 2026 and 2027 downward by approximately 3% and 17% respectively [1] Group 1: Financial Projections - Revenue growth is expected at 10% and 14% for fiscal years 2026 and 2027 respectively, with an operating profit margin projected at 10.2% and 10.5%, showing a slight increase compared to fiscal year 2025 [1] - The fourth quarter of fiscal year 2025 saw a revenue increase of 9.4% year-on-year, surpassing the expectations of CMB International and other institutions, which were 2% and 5% respectively [1] - Excluding Dongfang Zhenxuan (01797), education and cultural tourism revenue increased by 19% year-on-year, with an education operating profit margin of 6.5%, up 410 basis points from the same period last year due to effective cost reduction and efficiency improvement measures [1] Group 2: Business Segments and Market Outlook - The guidance for the first quarter was below expectations primarily due to seasonal factors, but growth is expected to recover in the second to fourth quarters [1] - The management's guidance for fiscal year 2026 indicates a group revenue increase of 5-10%, compared to the market expectation of 12%, with the main adjustment being a downward revision of the growth forecast for overseas-related business to a decline of 5% [1] - The growth rate for K12-related business is maintained at the market expectation of 19% [1] Group 3: Valuation Methodology - CMB International has adjusted its valuation method to SOTP, assigning a price-to-earnings ratio of 15 times for K12 business and 8 times for study abroad business for fiscal year 2026, corresponding to profit growth rates of +22% and -10% respectively [1] - The company is accelerating cost optimization efforts, aiming to achieve stable or slightly increased operating profit margins for the entire year [1]

Investment Rating - The report downgrades the investment rating to "Accumulate" with an expected price increase of 5% to 15% over the next 6-12 months [5]. Core Views - The company reported Q4 FY2025 revenue of $1.243 billion, a year-over-year increase of 9.4%, with the education segment revenue reaching $1.089 billion, up 18.7%, exceeding guidance [2]. - The company announced a three-year shareholder return plan, committing to return at least 50% of the previous fiscal year's net profit to shareholders through dividends and buybacks, estimating a total return of no less than $186 million for FY2025 [4]. - The education business is expected to experience a slowdown in revenue growth due to economic conditions and increased competition, with Q1 FY2026 international exam preparation and study abroad consulting revenues projected to decline by 5% year-over-year [3]. Summary by Sections Performance Review - FY2025 Q4 revenue was $1.243 billion, with a 9.4% year-over-year increase. The education business revenue was $1.089 billion, up 18.7%, surpassing guidance. Non-GAAP operating profit margin improved to 6.5%, a 4.1 percentage point increase year-over-year [2]. Operational Analysis - The education business revenue growth is expected to slow in FY2026 due to economic and international factors. Q1 FY2026 international business is projected to decline by 5%, while K9 business is expected to grow by 15-16% [3]. - Profit pressure is anticipated from the slowdown in education revenue, but cost reduction and efficiency improvements are expected to positively impact profit margins by 1-1.5 percentage points [3]. Profit Forecast, Valuation, and Rating - The company is projected to achieve total revenues of $5.276 billion, $5.719 billion, and $6.228 billion for FY2026, FY2027, and FY2028, respectively, with a three-year compound growth rate of 8% [5]. - Non-GAAP net profit estimates are $560 million, $598 million, and $641 million for FY2026, FY2027, and FY2028, respectively, with adjusted PE ratios of 14, 13, and 12 times [5].

Core Insights - New Oriental Education Technology Group reported a revenue of $3.657 billion for the fiscal year ending February 28, 2025, reflecting a year-over-year growth of 15.12% [1] - The company's net profit attributable to shareholders reached $365 million, marking a 29.01% increase compared to the previous year [1] Company Overview - New Oriental Education Technology Group is positioned as a comprehensive education group focused on the holistic growth of students, driven by technology [2] - The company has evolved from the Beijing New Oriental School, established in 1993, and has developed multiple platforms including short-term training, cultural dissemination, consulting services, and technology industries [2] - New Oriental is a well-known private education institution in China, successfully listed on the New York Stock Exchange in September 2006 and later on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange in November 2020 [2]

Core Viewpoint - New Oriental has experienced a challenging fiscal year 2025 and is expected to face an even more difficult fiscal year 2026, with revenue growth slowing significantly compared to previous years [1][14]. Financial Performance - In Q4 of fiscal year 2025, New Oriental reported revenue of $1.24 billion, a year-on-year increase of 9.4%. For the entire fiscal year, revenue reached $4.9 billion, up 13.6% year-on-year [1][3]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders was $7.1 million, a dramatic decline of 73.7% year-on-year [3][5]. - Operating costs and expenses for the quarter were $1.25 billion, an increase of 11.2%, outpacing revenue growth [5]. Profitability Issues - The significant drop in net profit was primarily due to increased costs and expenses, including a goodwill impairment of $60.3 million, which was a major factor in the profit decline [5][8]. - Excluding the goodwill impairment, the profit would have shown a substantial year-on-year increase of approximately 150% [8]. Revenue Growth Trends - Revenue growth for New Oriental's educational services has been slowing down, with quarterly growth rates decreasing from 49.8% to 32.5% over the fiscal year [10]. - The K9 business remains a strong performer despite increased competition, maintaining high growth due to its large market size and New Oriental's brand strength [10][11]. Business Segment Performance - The non-academic tutoring business saw approximately 918,000 registrations in Q4, reflecting a significant increase from previous quarters [11]. - The overseas examination preparation and consulting businesses have stabilized, with revenue growth of 14.6% and 8.2% respectively in Q4 [12]. Future Outlook - For Q1 of fiscal year 2026, New Oriental expects revenue to be between $1.46 billion and $1.51 billion, representing a year-on-year growth of 2% to 5% [14]. - The company anticipates a more stable and sustainable growth phase, with full-year revenue projections for fiscal year 2026 set between $5.15 billion and $5.39 billion, indicating a growth of 5% to 10% [15].

Core Insights - The company reported a significant increase in net revenue for the first quarter of fiscal year 2026, rising from $414 million to $575 million year-over-year [1] - Operating profit turned positive at $14.35 million, compared to an operating loss of $17.33 million in the same period last year [1] - Net profit attributable to the company was $31.28 million, up from $11.40 million year-over-year [1] Financial Performance - Non-GAAP operating profit (excluding stock-based compensation) was $25.11 million, a substantial increase from $876,000 in the previous year [1] - Non-GAAP net profit (excluding stock-based compensation) reached $42.05 million, compared to $29.61 million in the same quarter last year [1] - As of May 31, 2025, the company had cash, cash equivalents, and short-term investments totaling $3.473 billion, down from $3.618 billion as of February 28, 2025 [1] Business Strategy - The increase in revenue is attributed to steady growth in learning services and AI-driven smart hardware, reflecting the company's commitment to providing high-quality learning experiences [1] - The launch of new smart hardware products (P4, T4, and S4) has expanded the company's reach to a broader user base [1] - The company aims to continue innovating in the K-12 learning sector, responding to changing user demands, and leveraging advancements in artificial intelligence and technology [1]

Core Viewpoint - New Oriental has experienced a challenging fiscal year 2025 and is expected to face an even tougher fiscal year 2026, with significant concerns regarding slowing growth and declining net profits [1][3][12]. Financial Performance - In Q4 of fiscal year 2025, New Oriental reported revenue of $1.24 billion, a year-on-year increase of 9.4%. For the entire fiscal year, revenue reached $4.9 billion, up 13.6% year-on-year [1][3]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders was $7.1 million, a dramatic decline of 73.7% year-on-year [3][4]. - Operating costs and expenses increased by 11.2% to $1.25 billion, surpassing the revenue growth rate of 9.4% [4]. Reasons for Declining Profit - The significant drop in net profit is primarily attributed to increased costs and expenses, including a notable goodwill impairment of $60.3 million, which was a one-time charge related to previous acquisitions of kindergartens [4][7]. - Excluding the goodwill impairment, the profit would have shown a substantial year-on-year increase of approximately 150% [7]. Business Segment Performance - New Oriental's education new business, primarily K9, has seen a gradual decline in revenue growth rates, with quarterly growth rates of 49.8%, 42.6%, 34.5%, and 32.5% respectively [9]. - The non-academic tutoring business reported approximately 918,000 enrollments in Q4, reflecting a significant increase from previous years [9]. - Traditional overseas exam preparation and consulting services have stabilized, with revenue growth of 14.6% and 8.2% respectively in Q4 [10]. Future Outlook - For Q1 of fiscal year 2026, New Oriental expects revenue to be between $1.46 billion and $1.51 billion, representing a year-on-year growth of 2% to 5% [12][13]. - The full fiscal year 2026 revenue is projected to be between $5.15 billion and $5.39 billion, with an anticipated growth rate of 5% to 10% [13]. - The K9 business is expected to grow around 20%, while overseas-related businesses are projected to grow by 4% to 5% [13].

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