【资产配置快评】 政治局会议后怎么看 ——总量"创"辩第 107 期 ❖ 宏观 张瑜：股票相对债券的配置价值已由劣转优 核心指标而言：股债夏普比率差值已与股债价格走势出现十年级别的大背离， 意味着股票相比债券的性价比、配置吸引力都已显著回升，但股债价格的反应 偏滞后。 背后逻辑而言：1）政策主动分摊风险提供了稀缺的确定性。2）经济领先指标 见底。 投资启发而言：1）权益"高光时刻"客观会提前。2）美日也有同等规律。3） 我们认为叠加宏观条件而言，需要开始重视权益相比债券的配置价值。 ❖ 策略 姚佩：3500 以上的定价新变化 牛市不惧"变"？更需"稳"！7 月政治局会议为牛市提供定心丸：1）在已形 成明确趋势性上涨的牛市中，政策稳定延续即是利好。2）政策稳定延续提供 的是确定性溢价，灵活性、预见性提供的是向上期权。3）从总量加码转向结构 优化，供给出清或先于需求刺激。4）牛市仍将延续，从上半场金融再通胀逐步 演化为下半场实物再通胀。 3500 以上的新趋势：增量资金、高低切、中盘成长占优。1）增量资金加速流 入：两融+主动权益基金助推放量新高。2）行业高低切：周期+成长领跑，哑 铃配置回调。3）风格：中盘追涨 ...

过去10年间，香港老人北上养老的人数，正在激增。 根据香港特别行政区立法会2025年发布的《数据透视》显示，截至2024年中有近10万名（99，600名）65岁或以上香港老人，选择定居广东省，比过去10 年间激增了40.5%。 2024年，香港65岁或以上人口占比23.9%，香港753万人口基数中，已有约超170万银发老年人。 10万之于170万香港老人而言，虽占比不到一成，但随着"北上养老"背后的各项条件持续打通，这个方案正逐年成为香港老人的现实之选。 香港岭南大学政策研究院研究助理教授石琤博士长期从事跨境养老研究，她提到，"内地生活成本低、居住空间大、房间较便宜等因素，是吸引香港老人 到内地养老的主要原因，他们表达出想要融入内地，并落地生根的强烈愿望。" 香港老人北上养老潮的背后，老年人最关心的自然是医疗。 最近几年，粤港两地政府频繁推出跨境养老方面的政策，一方面吸引香港老人，一方面也吸引了越来越多的港资养老机构到大湾区内开设养老社区。与此 同时，面对这股浪潮，内地头部的保险公司也开始跃跃欲试，展开布局。 当市场化的主体参与到这场养老行动中，香港老人养老的医疗等问题能不能解决？ 此外，"北上养老潮"背后藏 ...

当前，我国利率环境正经历深刻变革。 存款利率跌破1.5%，银行理财打破刚兑，十年期国债收益率在1.7%下方持续震荡……近日，新一季度普通型 人身保险产品预定利率研究值明确为1.99%，我国人身保险产品预定利率下调进入倒计时。 随着利率全面进入"1时代"，收益"内卷式"竞争进一步降温。居民财富管理理念逐步从追求短期内的"高收 益"转向长期稳定的"确定性"，越来越多的消费者开始将目光投向商业保险年金。 面对市场需求变化和多重挑战，保险公司亦积极转型，从"数字角力"迈向"生态服务"，一场从"卷收益"转 向"卷服务"的行业变革正悄然来临。 今年二季度，央行在全国50个城市进行的2万户城镇储户问卷调查结果显示，在关于居民消费、储蓄和投资意 愿调查中，二季度倾向于"更多储蓄""更多消费""更多投资"的居民分别占63.8%、23.3%、12.9%。"非消费型保 险"位列居民偏爱的前五类财富管理方式之一，占比近10%。 利率下行对保险业经营亦带来多重挑战，单纯卷产品收益数字的"内卷式"竞争被叫停。监管部门近日下发了 《关于分红险分红水平监管意见的函》，要求各公司要稳健经营，坚持长期主义，"不得偏离账户的资产负债 和投资收益实 ...

南方财经记者郭晓洁 21世纪经济报道记者李德尚玉报道 随着绿色金融市场的快速发展，相关的资讯和数据变得越来越丰富。绿色金融周报从宏观视角和机构绿 色金融实践等角度，关注绿色金融领域的最新前沿动态，追踪绿色金融市场的最新趋势，为绿色金融相 关参与方提供决策依据和参考。 一、重点关注 21碳中和课题组快评：2025年上半年中国绿色债券市场的强劲增长态势，尤其是绿色中期票据和金融债 的突出表现，为推动经济绿色转型和可持续发展提供了有力的资金支持，尽管碳中和债券占比有所下 降，但整体市场活力和发展潜力依然强劲。 2、天津发布十个绿色金融典型案例 天津金融监管局于7月31日召开新闻发布会，会上介绍了天津10个具有代表性的绿色金融典型案例。如 在区域生态建设方面，渤海银行天津分行发放10亿元EOD模式贷款，支持天津经开区生态环境及绿色 低碳循环产业综合开发等；在风险保障方面，国寿财险天津市分公司为津南区1300余亩核心绿化林区定 制"城市绿屏保险"，提供1300余万元风险保障等；在产融结合方面，中国信保天津分公司与中国银行天 津市分行构建中长期出口买方信贷融资模式，支持天津某民营企业"一带一路"绿色建设项目1.5亿元融 ...

丛林指出，当前仍处于"七下八上"防汛关键期，要提高工作主动性和前瞻性，密切关注重要灾害信息， 做好风险预警，强化应对准备，提升应急保障能力，确保遇有突发险情，及时有力应对处置，以实际行 动体现金融工作的政治性和人民性。 责任编辑：秦艺 近日，金融监管总局党委委员、副局长丛林先后赴北京市密云区大城子镇苍术会村、河南寨镇，河北兴 隆县六道河镇周家庄村，现场查看受灾受损情况，督导保险理赔等金融服务工作，看望慰问银行业保险 业服务防汛救灾基层员工。 丛林强调，要认真学习贯彻习近平总书记关于防汛救灾工作的重要指示精神，全面落实国务院常务会议 有关部署安排，在地方党委政府和有关部门统一指挥调度下，扎实开展工作，全力抢险救灾。要充分发 挥保险业的经济减震器和社会稳定器功能，积极体现银行业支持灾后恢复重建重要作用，最大限度减少 人民群众财产损失。要及时开展查勘救援工作，畅通绿色通道，主动靠前服务，做到能赔快赔、应赔尽 赔、合理预赔。要强化信贷支持，不盲目抽贷、断贷、压贷，加大普惠金融服务，帮助受灾农户、小微 企业和个体工商户渡过难关。 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the bond market is "oscillating with a bearish bias" [5] Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The stock - bond seesaw remains the main logic for the bond market recently. The short - term correction of A - shares gives impetus to the bond market's rebound. The economic sentiment declined in July, and counter - cyclical adjustment needs to be continuously strengthened. The keynote for the second half of the year is an active fiscal policy and a moderately loose monetary policy, but the incremental policies exceeding market expectations may be limited [2][4][30] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Chapter 1: Market Review - The stock - bond seesaw logic has led the long - end bond market to effectively break below the 60 - day moving average, and this logic may continue to dominate the bond market [10] Chapter 2: Overview of Important News - The Ministry of Finance requires state - owned commercial insurance companies to improve asset - liability management. China's official manufacturing PMI in July was 49.3, a decline of 0.4 percentage points month - on - month, and the non - manufacturing PMI was 50.1, also down 0.4 percentage points month - on - month. The Politburo meeting emphasized maintaining policy continuity and stability. The China - US economic and trade talks reached a consensus on the extension of tariffs. The profit decline of industrial enterprises above designated size narrowed in June, and multiple departments planned key work for the second half of the year [14][16] Chapter 3: Analysis of Important Influencing Factors 3.1 Economic Fundamentals - China's economic data showed certain resilience in the second quarter, with GDP growth exceeding expectations. However, the economic sentiment declined in July, and counter - cyclical adjustment needs to be strengthened [17] 3.2 Policy Aspect - In June 2025, the social financing scale stock increased year - on - year, and the M2 - M1 gap narrowed, indicating that real - sector enterprises are more optimistic about the economic outlook [19] 3.3 Capital Aspect - The bond market interest rate and DR007 have decreased significantly, and the capital is already relatively loose. The probability of significant monetary easing such as reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts in the second half of the year is low [21] 3.4 Supply - Demand Aspect - The issuance of local bonds and special bonds has accelerated recently. The issuance of special bonds and ultra - long - term special treasury bonds has basically been realized, and the market is waiting for the effects and implementation of relevant policies [24] 3.5 Sentiment Aspect - The stock - bond ratio has broken through the short - term shock range, indicating that the market's attention to the stock market is greater than that to the bond market, and the market risk appetite has increased [27] Chapter 4: Market Outlook and Investment Strategy - The themes for the second half of the year are anti - involution and maintaining stable economic recovery. The start of infrastructure projects increases the market's expectation of further fiscal and infrastructure efforts. The short - term correction of A - shares gives impetus to the bond market, and investors should pay attention to the subsequent trend of the stock market [30]

Policy Interpretation - The new tax policy on bond interest is not a "one-size-fits-all" approach, as it applies only to new bonds issued after August 8, while previously issued bonds remain tax-exempt, preventing panic selling among existing investors [2] - This strategy aims to increase future debt financing costs without causing immediate losses to current investors, reflecting a controlled and precise approach by the government [2] Tax Burden Impact - The 3% value-added tax may seem minor, but for large principal investors, the impact is significant. For instance, a holder of 1 million yuan in government bonds with a 3% annual interest rate will see a reduction in net income by 900 yuan due to the tax, resulting in an effective yield reduction [3] - For investors holding 10 million yuan in bonds, the annual loss could reach 9,000 yuan, which is comparable to several months' salary [3] Affected Groups - The policy primarily affects three groups: 1. High-net-worth bond investors, particularly retirees relying on bond interest for living expenses, who may face significant income reductions [4] 2. Financial institutions like banks and insurance companies, which hold large amounts of bonds and may respond by lowering deposit rates or raising loan rates, impacting the general public [4] 3. Local government financing platforms, which will see increased borrowing costs and may need to raise bond interest rates to attract investors, affecting fiscal expenditures and local tax structures [4] Underlying Reasons for Policy - The government is not merely responding to a cash shortage; the decision is influenced by several factors: 1. There is an objective fiscal pressure, with a budget deficit exceeding 6 trillion yuan for 2024, and while bond interest income is not substantial, it can help alleviate some fiscal strain [6] 2. The bond market has matured, reducing the need for tax exemptions to attract investors, as the market can self-regulate [6] 3. The restoration of tax on bond interest addresses tax equity, as other investment income types are taxed, promoting a fairer investment environment [6] Response Strategies - Investors are advised to consider three strategies in light of the new policy: 1. Purchase old government bonds issued before August 8 to benefit from tax-exempt interest [6] 2. Diversify asset allocation to reduce reliance on government bonds, considering other investment products for risk mitigation [6] 3. Focus on after-tax yield when evaluating investments, ensuring a rational comparison of different investment products [6] Deep Signals - The policy indicates a shift in macroeconomic policy, suggesting: 1. A tightening of previously loose monetary policies, with fewer favorable policies expected in the future [7] 2. The breaking of the "investment guarantee" perception of government bonds, requiring investors to reassess risk [7] 3. Increased pressure on asset depreciation due to inflation and reduced bond interest, necessitating sound financial planning to avoid potential losses [7]

Core Viewpoint - The current data center construction boom driven by AI is shifting funding sources from traditional equity financing to a growing and opaque "private credit" market, raising concerns about systemic risks similar to the 2008 financial crisis [1][3]. Group 1: Data Center Construction Boom - The capital expenditure of major tech companies in the U.S. has reached a record level, totaling $102.5 billion in the recent quarter, primarily driven by Meta, Google, Microsoft, and Amazon [3]. - AI-related capital expenditures have contributed more to U.S. economic growth than all consumer spending over the past two quarters [3]. - Current investments in AI infrastructure have surpassed the peak telecom investments of the late 1990s, with telecom capital expenditures reaching $120 billion in 2000, accounting for 1.2% of GDP at that time [6]. Group 2: Shift to Debt Financing - The growth rate of capital expenditures for tech giants has outpaced their cash flow growth, leading to an increased reliance on debt financing, particularly through private credit [7]. - Microsoft’s financing lease related to data centers has nearly tripled since 2023, indicating a significant rise in debt financing [7]. - Private credit is becoming a crucial funding source for the data center boom, with its scale rapidly expanding and becoming a significant part of the U.S. debt market [7][10]. Group 3: Systemic Risks and Financial Institutions - Banks are becoming increasingly exposed to private credit, with their loans to private credit companies rising from 1% in 2013 to 14% of total loans to non-bank financial institutions [12]. - The interconnectedness between banks and the private credit market poses potential risks, especially if there are unexpected defaults concentrated in the data center sector [12]. - Insurance companies, particularly life insurers, have significantly increased their exposure to below-investment-grade corporate debt, surpassing the scale of subprime mortgage-backed securities held in 2007 [13].

6.违规运用资金造成重大损失等。 相关责任人李飞、赵子良、彭晓东、于振亭、李建伟、贾春伟、张峰、项子强、朱友干、王国强、姚志刚、何建奎、蔡可青、邹明红、提建设、王林锋、洪 军、姜峰、房延瑞、万进、马捷、赵杰、马登峰，均被警告并罚款共计232万元。 此外，李飞、赵子良、彭晓东、于振亭、李建伟、贾春伟、张峰、朱友干、王国强、何建奎、蔡可青、洪军，共计12人被撤销任职资格。 1.报送的报告中存在虚假记载和重大遗漏； 2.客户信息不真实； 3.产品宣传材料不合规； 4.虚假列支费用； 5.违规大幅虚增偿付能力； 凤凰网财经讯 8月1日，据国家金融监管总局官网消息显示，华夏人寿被吊销业务许可证，23名责任人被罚。 具体违规行为如下： 同时，张峰、王国强、房延瑞被禁止进入保险业1年；李建伟被禁止进入保险业3年；贾春伟被禁止进入保险业5年；于振亭被禁止进入保险业8年；赵子良、 洪军被禁止进入保险业10年；李飞、彭晓东被终身禁止进入保险业。 | | | 国家立‎ 西昌 生 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 序号 | 当事人 | 主要违法违规 | | 作出决定 | | | 名称 | ...

宏观周度观察 20250802 关税多维目标路径明晰，市场聚焦非农暴雷下的美联储降息 | 国联期货研究所 | | | 目 录 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 证监许可[2011]1773 | 号 | | | | | | 1. | 本周宏观观察 | | 分析师： | | | | | 王娜 | | 2. | 国内重点事件及重要经济数据 | | 从业资格证号：F3055965 | | | | | 投资咨询证书号：Z0001999 | | 3. | 海外重点事件及重要经济数据 | | 联系人： | | 4. | 下周重点数据/事件 | | 吴昕玥 | | | | | 从业资格证号：F03124129 | | | | 相关研究报告： | 2024 年中期宏观经济展望： | | --- | | 虚云散尽见真章，厚积薄发 | | 待春雷 | | 2024 年宏观经济展望：行稳 | | 方致远，温和渐进修复 | | 国联期货宏观 9 月展望：内 | | 生动能亟待改善，政策加码 | | 正当时 | | 宏观专题：透过金融数据探 | | 寻资金运转逻辑与效率 | 1. 本周宏观观察 随着特朗普政府设 ...