Investment Rating - The industry is rated as "Outperform" compared to the market, indicating a potential increase of over 10% relative to the market index in the next six months [4][50]. Core Insights - In 2024, the SW electronics industry is expected to achieve a revenue of CNY 3,329.907 billion, representing a year-on-year growth of 16.90%. The gross margin is projected to be 15.47%, a slight decline of 0.31 percentage points, primarily due to raw material cost pressures. The net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to be CNY 129.296 billion, a significant increase of 43.07% year-on-year, indicating improved profitability [1][13]. - In Q1 2025, the industry is anticipated to generate revenue of CNY 823.831 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 17.98%, and a net profit of CNY 34.263 billion, reflecting a 29.58% increase year-on-year, marking the highest growth in nearly three years for Q1 [1][19]. Summary by Sections 1. Industry Performance - The SW electronics industry is experiencing a recovery in performance, with 2024 showing a significant improvement in revenue and net profit. The overall expense ratio has decreased, indicating better cost control [1][13]. - Q1 2025 has set new records for revenue and net profit, both achieving double-digit year-on-year growth [1][19]. 2. Subsector Analysis - **Semiconductors**: The sector is expected to recover in 2024, with Q1 2025 continuing this upward trend. Key subsectors like integrated circuit manufacturing and analog chip design have returned to profitability, driven by demand from terminal recovery and AI computing [2][20]. - **Consumer Electronics**: Performance is mixed, with revenue growth outpacing profit growth due to raw material cost pressures. New product launches and promotional events are expected to boost demand [2][24]. - **Optoelectronics**: The panel sector has returned to profitability, aided by improved supply dynamics and production strategies. All subsectors showed revenue growth in Q1 2025, reflecting overall recovery [2][29]. - **Components**: The sector benefits from the high demand in the AI computing supply chain, with significant revenue and profit growth in Q1 2025 [3][34]. - **Electronic Chemicals**: This sector has shown steady revenue growth, with improved profitability in Q1 2025 due to the overall recovery in the semiconductor industry [3][40]. - **Other Electronics**: This sector's performance has improved, but profit growth has lagged behind revenue growth due to cost pressures [3][46]. 3. Investment Recommendations - The SW electronics industry is expected to see overall growth in 2024 and Q1 2025, with varying performance across subsectors. Key areas to watch include digital chip design, advanced packaging, and PCB sectors, which are showing signs of improved profitability [3][46].

证券研究报告 | 策略研究 gszqdatemark 2025 05 12 年 月 日 投资策略 财报过后，供给出清、出口链与高股息再梳理 一、策略专题：供给出清、出口链与高股息再梳理 4 月 30 日，A 股 2024 年报与 2025 一季报披露完毕，我们结合最新数据 对供给出清、出口链与高股息行业进行再梳理。 从供需格局的角度，有两类行业值得关注，第一类是左侧思路的"供给出 清"行业，即库存与产能均处于较为明显的出清状态，在需求能够保持稳 定甚至高速增长的背景下，上述行业有望凸显盈利弹性，25Q1 具备上述 特征的行业主要包括塑料、通用设备、游戏、种植业、小金属、光学光电 子、通信服务。 即国内需求存在压力的情况下，海外收入占比较高的出口链有望取得独立 景气，我们结合 2024 年上市公司主营构成与海关总署披露的出口数据对 各行业海外收入占比进行测算，当前全球出口链重点行业包括其他家电、 消费电子、航运港口、小家电、工程机械等。 第二类行业是右侧思路的"强势扩产"行业，即营收高速增长反映需求旺 盛，同时产能扩张处于较高水平，未来有望通过提高产量推动利润扩张， 25Q1 具备上述特征的行业主要包括其他电子 ...

Group 1: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Two categories of industries are highlighted: "supply clearing" industries with significant inventory and capacity reduction, and "strong expansion" industries with high revenue growth and capacity expansion [2][15]. - Industries exhibiting "supply clearing" characteristics include plastics, general equipment, gaming, agriculture, small metals, optical electronics, and communication services [2][15]. - Industries showing "strong expansion" characteristics include other electronics, leisure food, motorcycles, precious metals, and shipping ports [2][17]. Group 2: Export Chain Analysis - Industries with high overseas revenue ratios are expected to maintain independent growth despite domestic demand pressures, including other home appliances, consumer electronics, shipping ports, small appliances, and engineering machinery [3][20]. - The report notes that industries with high revenue from the U.S. face uncertainties until U.S.-China trade relations improve, with potential valuation recovery for sectors like entertainment products, textile manufacturing, and lighting equipment if tariff issues ease [3][23]. Group 3: High Dividend Yield Industries - High dividend yield industries identified include coal mining, oil and gas extraction, refining and trading, shipping ports, and white goods [4][26]. - Notably, the dividend yield for transportation and consumer sectors has significantly increased compared to the previous year, particularly in shipping ports, logistics, and white goods [4][26]. Group 4: Market Performance and Strategy - The A-share market shows resilience, with a net outflow of ETFs indicating reduced support from protective funds, yet the market remains stable with transaction volumes exceeding 1 trillion [5][29]. - The report suggests a cautious approach to position management due to ongoing uncertainties, with a focus on potential support levels for the index [5][29]. - A balanced allocation strategy is recommended to navigate uncertainties, with a renewed interest in technology sectors, particularly in AI, and a shift towards high-growth industries such as feed, motorcycles, and plastics [5][30].

这两天互联网上印巴话题热度急升，这两个都是中国的邻国，巴基斯坦号称巴铁，和咱们的关系走的亲 近些，印度和中国的关系比较复杂，有合作也有对抗，另外还是制造业上的潜在竞争对手，网民对他们 的总体印象不佳。 所以当新闻传来巴基斯坦用中国武器打掉了印度从法国、俄罗斯买来的飞机时，国内网民的情绪一下子 就被点燃了，这有点像修仙爽文里的情节，我给了小弟一件法宝，结果小弟用法宝痛揍了那个我早就看 不顺眼的瘪三，快乐加倍 不过现实中巴基斯坦和印度无论是军力还是综合实力，都有较大差距。印度的gdp是巴基斯坦的11倍， 人口14.3亿对2.4亿，外汇储备印度比巴基斯坦多了45倍。两国军费差了8倍，军队规模印度多了2倍，坦 克和飞机数量都多了60%。 哦对了，有个事顺带提一下，巴基斯坦股市今天大跌7.65%，盘中一度触发熔断，看起来是资金避险出 逃，但这个关注的人不多，毕竟巴基斯坦的股市规模太小了，总市值就3000多亿人民币，和印度差了近 百倍。 今天a股缩量了，1.29万亿，但中位数+0.75%还不错，底下缺口好几个但走势依然强劲。不知道是不是 受了印巴局势的影响，制造业板块全面上涨： 轨道交通+2.7%、通信+2.7%、通用设 ...

Core Viewpoint - The export chain of listed companies in Q1 2025 is expected to perform well, driven by factors such as foreign trade enterprises "grabbing exports," accelerated expansion of mid-to-high-end products in overseas markets, and the ongoing efforts of the "Belt and Road" initiative. The net profit growth rate of the export chain in Q1 2025 is projected to be 15.33%, a significant increase of 14.54 percentage points compared to 2024A [1]. Group 1: Export Chain Performance - The net profit growth rate of the export chain in Q1 2025 is 15.33%, up from 0.80% in 2024A, outperforming the overall non-financial A-share market, which saw a decline of 12.94% [1]. - The export chain's performance indicates strong support from external demand over the past six months [1]. Group 2: Industry Overseas Revenue Proportion - As of the end of 2024, the highest overseas revenue proportion is in the electronics industry at 41.7%, followed by home appliances at 38.5% [2]. - Industries with over 20% overseas revenue proportions include automotive (26.5%), machinery manufacturing (23.8%), and light industry manufacturing (22.5%) [2]. - The light industry manufacturing sector saw a significant increase in overseas revenue proportion, rising by 4.76 percentage points compared to 2023 [2]. Group 3: Trends in Overseas Revenue - Since 2018, sectors such as automotive, personal care, and machinery have rapidly increased their overseas revenue proportions, reflecting a trend towards high-end, intelligent, and green exports [2]. - The electronics and communications sectors have experienced a noticeable decline in overseas revenue proportions due to geopolitical issues [2]. Group 4: Industry-Specific Developments - In 2024, industries such as non-ferrous metals and mid-to-high-end manufacturing have made significant progress in overseas business, with notable increases in overseas revenue proportions [4]. - The sectors with the most substantial marginal improvements in overseas revenue proportions include other electronics (+15.06 percentage points) and home goods (+9.23 percentage points) [4]. Group 5: Exposure to International Markets - The report categorizes industries based on their exposure to various international markets, highlighting those with high exposure to the U.S. and those with declining exposure [6]. - Industries currently with high exposure to the U.S. include home appliances, medical devices, and computer equipment, while sectors like communications and media have seen a decrease in U.S. exposure [6].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [2] Core Insights - The company achieved a record high revenue in Q2, driven by strong growth in AI and new business segments, indicating long-term potential [5] - The automotive electronics and data center sectors are significant growth drivers, with automotive-related revenue expected to reach 1.1 billion yuan in 2024, a 62.1% increase year-over-year [7] - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 7.17 billion yuan, 8.57 billion yuan, and 10.11 billion yuan from 2025 to 2027, with net profits of 1.05 billion yuan, 1.30 billion yuan, and 1.60 billion yuan respectively [7] Financial Data Summary - Total shares outstanding: 806.32 million [6] - Revenue forecast for 2024: 5.897 billion yuan, with a year-over-year growth of 17% [8] - Net profit forecast for 2024: 832 million yuan, with a year-over-year growth of 29.9% [8] - Gross margin for 2024 is expected to be 36.5% [8] - The company’s total market capitalization is approximately 22.31 billion yuan [6] - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) for 2024 is projected to be 1.05 yuan [8]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company turned a profit in Q1 2025 with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 0.09 billion yuan, marking a significant recovery from a loss of 1.98 billion yuan in 2024 [3] - Revenue for Q1 2025 reached 15.80 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 13.77% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 7.76%, achieving the highest quarterly revenue since its listing [3] - The report anticipates a slight downward adjustment in profit expectations for 2025 due to market demand recovery, while profit expectations for 2026 and 2027 have been raised [3] Financial Performance Summary - In 2024, the company reported revenue of 58.17 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 8.53%, but incurred a net loss of 1.98 billion yuan, a decline of 193.88% year-on-year [3] - The projected net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 2.03 billion yuan, 4.39 billion yuan, and 5.83 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding EPS of 0.12, 0.26, and 0.35 yuan [3][6] - The company's revenue from PCB business in 2024 was 43.00 billion yuan, with a gross margin of 26.96%, while the packaging substrate business generated revenue of 11.16 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 35.87% [4][5] Business Segment Insights - The PCB business is undergoing structural adjustments to improve profitability, with a focus on optimizing production processes and expanding overseas markets [4] - The packaging substrate business is in a critical phase for order release and customer expansion, particularly for ABF boards, with plans to complete overseas product certifications in 2025 [5]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 367.70 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 9.27%, but the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 44.74% to 10.86 billion yuan [4] - The decline in net profit was primarily due to asset disposal and impairment losses related to the LED business, amounting to 1.64 billion yuan and 5.95 billion yuan respectively [4] - The company anticipates a significant recovery in Q1 2025, with net profit expected to grow by 50-60% year-on-year, driven by increased demand from AI and ICT infrastructure [4] - Long-term growth prospects remain optimistic, with revised profit forecasts for 2025, 2026, and 2027 set at 30.67 billion yuan, 36.16 billion yuan, and 42.03 billion yuan respectively [4] Financial Performance Summary - In 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 367.70 billion yuan, with a gross margin of 14.02% and a net margin of 2.95% [4] - The fourth quarter of 2024 saw a revenue of 103.04 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 7.59% [4] - The company’s financial metrics for 2025E include a projected revenue of 429.62 billion yuan and a net profit of 30.67 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 182.5% [8] Business Strategy and Growth Drivers - The company is pursuing a "dual-wheel drive" strategy focusing on PCB and precision structural components, while expanding into new markets and sectors [6] - The new energy vehicle segment reported a revenue of 86.5 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 36.98%, contributing to 23.52% of total revenue [6] - The company is well-positioned to benefit from the growing demand for AI-driven consumer electronics, with its FPC revenue ranking second globally [5]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Jianghai Co., Ltd. is maintained as "Buy" [1][4] Core Views - In Q1 2025, Jianghai Co., Ltd. achieved a revenue of 1.158 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 10.14% and a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 8.79%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 152 million yuan, up 11.04% year-on-year but down 5.16% quarter-on-quarter. The company is actively advancing its AI server supercapacitor projects, indicating a robust long-term market potential [4][6] - The company has adjusted its profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026 to 821 million yuan and 993 million yuan, respectively, while introducing a new forecast for 2027 at 1.146 billion yuan. The current stock price corresponds to a PE ratio of 18.6 for 2025, 15.4 for 2026, and 13.3 for 2027, suggesting a favorable valuation given the growth prospects in the supercapacitor business [4][6] Financial Summary - For Q1 2025, Jianghai Co., Ltd. reported a gross margin of 24.32%, a slight increase of 0.74 percentage points year-on-year, and a net profit margin of 13.21%, which is stable compared to the previous year [4][8] - The company expects steady growth in its main business areas, particularly in aluminum electrolytic capacitors and film capacitors, driven by recovering demand in downstream sectors such as photovoltaics and automotive [5][6] - The financial projections indicate a revenue increase from 4.845 billion yuan in 2023 to an estimated 7.921 billion yuan in 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 15.8% [8][10]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Jianghai Co., Ltd. is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - In Q1 2025, Jianghai Co., Ltd. achieved a revenue of 1.158 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 10.14% and a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 8.79%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 152 million yuan, up 11.04% year-on-year but down 5.16% quarter-on-quarter. The company is continuing to advance its supercapacitor projects for AI servers, indicating a broad long-term market potential [4][6] - The company has adjusted its profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026, now expecting net profits of 821 million yuan and 993 million yuan respectively, with a new forecast for 2027 at 1.146 billion yuan. The current stock price corresponds to a PE ratio of 18.6 for 2025, 15.4 for 2026, and 13.3 for 2027 [4][6] Financial Summary - For Q1 2025, Jianghai Co., Ltd. reported a gross margin of 24.32%, a net margin of 13.21%, and a year-on-year increase in gross margin of 0.74 percentage points. The company is expected to maintain steady growth in its main business due to recovering demand in downstream sectors such as photovoltaics and automotive [4][5] - The company’s revenue and profit are projected to grow steadily, with expected revenues of 5.778 billion yuan in 2025, 6.842 billion yuan in 2026, and 7.921 billion yuan in 2027, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 20.2%, 18.4%, and 15.8% respectively [8][10]