心症结。后续经济修复需重点聚焦居民需求端，当前供需两端政策正有序推进，未来或有 金融期货早评 宏观：关注中美贸易冲突后续进程 【市场资讯】1）商务部新闻发言人就中方宣布针对美对华造船等行业 301 调查限制措施实 施反制答记者问。中国商务部回应：中方依法对稀土等物项出口管制，不是禁止出口；希 望美方正视自身错误，与中方相向而行，回到对话协商的正确轨道上来。2）高通公司涉嫌 违反反垄断法，市场监管总局依法决定立案调查，称相关事实清楚、证据确凿，将继续推 进相关调查工作。3）报道：美联储主席候选人名单缩小至五人，贝莱德高管 Rieder 令贝 森特"印象深刻"。美联储理事沃勒：就业市场是最大担忧，对降息 25 基点持开放态度。4） 美国现代史上首次，白宫"管家"宣布特朗普政府开始永久性裁员。5）美国 9 月 CPI 报告发 布时间定于 10 月 24 日，比原定晚 9 天。6）日本执政联盟破裂，公明党宣布不再与自民 党联合执政，拒绝支持高市早苗任首相。7）法国总统马克龙再次任命勒科尔尼担任总理。 【核心逻辑】今年国庆假期人员流动表现亮眼，但消费端矛盾凸显，有效需求仍是当前核 增量政策出台以推动物价平稳回升。需注意 ...

【粕类周报20251010】市场题材指引有限，国内粕类盘面偏弱震 源 日期:2025-10-10 ZHESHANG FUTURES 【粕类周报20251010】市场题材指引有限，国内粕类盘面偏弱震荡 | 核心观点 | 2025-10-10 | 2025-10-10 核心观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | ● 合约: m2601 ▼ 观点： 豆粕 震荡下行阶段,后期价格中枢有望下降 | | ● 合约: RM601 ♥ 观点： 菜籽粕 震荡下行阶段 后期价格中枢有望下降 | | ® 逻辑： 国外方面，美豆收获季开启，阶段性收割压力显现，中美关税协议无实质进展，叠加阿根廷暂停出 | | ® 逻辑: 国外方面,2025/26年度全球荣籽供需格局转松,压制荣籽价格重心,关注后续国际贸易取策变动 | | 日关税竞争，CBOT大豆预计偏弱为主，关注前低950美分/蒲式耳附近支撑。 | | 指引。国内方面，加荣辉反诚销初裁使其进口面临较高保证金要求，叠加加菜箱关税限制，菜粕供应预期导续 | | 国内方面，近月进口大豆到港压榨维持充足，豆糖库存压力仍待消化，下游饲料需求提振有限，现货基差预计 | | 收紧。但 ...

三是技术创新的"探路者"。民营企业创新活力持续迸发，创新成果竞相涌现，为外贸发展提供了新动能。前 三季度，民营企业出口高技术产品增长15.3%，占我国同类商品出口总值的54.2%，提升了1.6个百分点。目 前，我国接近8成的高端机床、超过7成的锂电池、接近6成的医疗器械都是由民营企业出口的。从超级巨轮到 掌上终端，从工业设备到具身智能，民营企业都不缺席。 王军称，下一步，海关将持续深化通关改革、优化监管服务、强化政策引导，护航民营企业"扬帆出海"，助力 民营经济健康发展、高质量发展。 王军表示，民营企业的特点和亮点，概括起来突出表现在三个方面： 一是稳定外贸的"主力军"。截至今年三季度，民营企业进出口已连续22个季度同比增长。特别是今年以来， 面对外部复杂环境带来的严峻挑战，民营企业进出口增速持续领先，前三季度拉动我国外贸增长4.3个百分 点，占我国外贸总值的比重达到了57%，较去年同期提升2个百分点，继续保持我国第一大外贸主体的地位。 二是开拓市场的"排头兵"。前三季度，民营企业对全球180多个国家和地区的进出口增速高于整体水平。在出 口方面，对东盟、非洲、中亚等新兴市场分别增长14%、27.3%和11.8 ...

中国方面，9月制造业供需改善差异扩大，供给修复快于需求。9月中采制造业PMI环比上升0.4ppt至49.8%，高于市场预期（Bloomberg预测中值为 49.6%）；9月非制造业商务活动指数环比下降0.3ppt至50.0%。制造业方面，供给边际改善幅度高于需求，库存边际增加，产成品、原材料库存分别环比 上升1.4、0.5个百分点至48.2%、48.5%；反内卷相关政策影响下，原材料购进价格继续相对强于出厂价格，9月主要原材料购进价格、出厂价格分别环比 下降0.1、0.9个百分点至53.2%、48.2%；建筑业环比小幅改善，9月建筑业商务活动指数环比小幅上升0.2个百分点至49.3%，但连续第二个月处于收缩区 间。 本期主题：避险交易可能回归 中美关税可能再升级的背景下，铜、油等对经济增长属性较为敏感的品种可能面临抛售压力，而黄金则将受益于避险情绪的升温，具体来看： 有色方面，由于中美贸易关系再起波澜，多数品种均出现高位回调。但参考上一轮4月初的关税风波，铜铝均展现出了较强的韧性：铜在触及相对90%分 位现金成本的30%溢价线，铝也在利润触及3000元/吨后迅速反弹。我们认为目前铜铝的基本面在供给叙事支撑下仍 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry - wide investment ratings are provided in the report. However, for different asset classes, there are short - term investment suggestions: - **Equity Index**: Short - term high - level adjustment with increased volatility, short - term cautious and wait - and - see [3][4] - **Treasury Bonds**: Short - term oscillation, cautious and wait - and - see [3] - **Commodity Categories**: - **Black Metals**: Short - term oscillation, cautious and wait - and - see [3] - **Non - ferrous Metals**: Short - term adjustment, cautious and short - term cautiously go long [3] - **Energy and Chemicals**: Short - term oscillation, cautious and wait - and - see [3] - **Precious Metals**: Short - term high - level strong - side oscillation, cautiously go long [3] 2. Core Views of the Report - **Macroeconomic Situation**: Overseas, the US threatens to impose 100% tariffs on China, intensifying short - term Sino - US game. The US dollar index and RMB exchange rate weaken, global financial markets fluctuate violently, and global risk appetite significantly cools. Domestically, economic growth accelerates, but short - term Sino - US game intensifies, and domestic risk appetite cools significantly. Multiple industries' steady - growth plans are introduced, increasing policy support [3][4]. - **Market Trading Logic**: Focus on domestic incremental stimulus policies and Sino - US game. Short - term macro upward drive weakens; follow - up attention on Sino - US trade negotiation progress and domestic incremental policy implementation [3][4]. 3. Summaries According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Macro - finance - **Macro Situation**: Overseas, Sino - US game intensifies, dollar and RMB weaken, global risk appetite cools, and precious metals strengthen. Domestically, economic growth accelerates, but Sino - US game intensifies, risk appetite cools, and multiple industries' steady - growth plans are introduced [3]. - **Asset Suggestions**: Equity index has short - term high - level adjustment, treasury bonds oscillate in the short - term, black metals oscillate, non - ferrous metals adjust, energy and chemicals oscillate, and precious metals are strong - side oscillating at high levels. All are with cautious operation suggestions [3]. 3.2 Equity Index - **Market Performance**: Domestic stock market drops significantly due to the drag of energy metals, semiconductors, and batteries. Fundamentally, economic growth accelerates, but Sino - US game intensifies, and risk appetite cools. Multiple industries' steady - growth plans are introduced. Short - term cautious and wait - and - see [4]. 3.3 Black Metals - **Steel**: Last Friday, steel futures and spot prices declined slightly, and market transactions were at a low level. After the weekend, Sino - US trade conflict escalated, and market risk - aversion increased. Fundamentally, demand is weak, inventory increases by 127000 tons, and supply is expected to remain high. The steel market may be weak in the short - term [5]. - **Iron Ore**: Last Friday, iron ore futures and spot prices rebounded slightly. Iron ore demand is strong, but due to the weakening steel market and Sino - US trade conflict, the negative feedback may come earlier. It is recommended to short at high prices next week [5]. - **Silicon Manganese/Silicon Ferrosilicon**: Last Friday, spot prices were flat, and futures prices declined slightly. Alloy demand is okay, but supply increases in some areas. Silicon manganese and silicon ferrosilicon futures prices are expected to oscillate in the range [6]. - **Coke and Coking Coal**: Not mentioned in the provided content. 3.4 Non - ferrous Metals and New Energy - **Copper**: Tariff concerns resurfaced last Friday night. US economic data is mixed, and the Fed's rate - cut expectation increases. Some major copper mines have supply disruptions, but most are expected to resume production [8]. - **Aluminum**: Last Friday, Shanghai aluminum rose and then fell, following copper. During the holiday, domestic aluminum social inventory accumulated by 200000 tons, supply is rigid, and demand weakens marginally [9][10]. - **Tin**: Supply is tight globally, but demand improvement is limited, and high prices suppress consumption. Tin prices are expected to oscillate at high levels [10]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Production increases, inventory decreases slightly. Sino - US trade conflict and 11 - month warehouse receipt cancellation may bring pressure, and prices are expected to oscillate in the range [11]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Production reaches a new high, inventory increases slightly. The 2511 contract faces warehouse receipt digestion pressure, and prices are expected to oscillate in the range [11]. - **Polysilicon**: Production increases, inventory is high, and warehouse receipt quantity increases. Supply is high, demand is weak, and prices depend on the implementation of storage - purchase news [11]. 3.5 Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: The Gaza cease - fire agreement and US tariff statements lead to a significant drop in oil prices. OPEC+增产 will continue to put downward pressure on prices [12]. - **Asphalt**: Oil price decline drives asphalt price down. Demand in the peak season is almost over, supply pressure increases, and asphalt may oscillate weakly [13]. - **PX**: It oscillates weakly with the polyester sector. Although PTA high - level operation provides some demand support, it is likely to continue to oscillate weakly [13]. - **PTA**: Downstream demand is weak, supply remains high, and port inventory increases. Prices will continue to run weakly [13]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Port inventory rises, demand deteriorates, and supply increases. It is expected to accumulate inventory in October and run at a low level [14]. - **Short - fiber**: It adjusts with the polyester sector, and terminal orders have limited improvement. It may continue to oscillate weakly [14]. - **Methanol**: Supply growth far exceeds demand recovery, inventory increases, and prices are expected to oscillate weakly [14]. - **PP**: After the holiday, supply and demand both increase, but new capacity and restarted devices bring supply pressure, and prices are expected to be under pressure [15]. - **LLDPE**: After the holiday, supply increases and demand recovers slowly. The "Golden September and Silver October" demand is less than expected, and prices will continue to oscillate weakly [15]. - **Urea**: The market is in a situation of strong supply and weak demand. Supply is above 190000 tons per day, and demand is weak. The short - term price is under pressure, and the subsequent trend depends on export policy [16]. 3.6 Agricultural Products - **Soybean and Rapeseed Meal**: Sino - US trade tension intensifies, and the CBOT soybean market is under pressure. Domestic short - term soybean meal replenishment may increase, but in the fourth quarter, supply is sufficient. CBOT soybean and domestic soybean meal may be under short - term pressure. Rapeseed meal is in a situation of weak supply and demand before the import of Australian rapeseed [17]. - **Soybean and Rapeseed Oil**: Rapeseed oil inventory is expected to decrease before the import of Australian rapeseed. Palm oil has some support, and soybean oil may accumulate inventory after the holiday and run weakly [17]. - **Palm Oil**: The MPOB report is bearish, with inventory rising unexpectedly. In the short - term, there is a risk of correction, but in the medium - term, it is still easy to rise and difficult to fall [17].

关注中美贸易进展 短期供应充足 核心观点及策略 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 李婷 豆粕月报 2025 年 10 月 13 日 从业资格号：F0297587 投资咨询号：Z0011509 王工建 从业资格号：F3084165 投资咨询号：Z0016301 赵凯熙 从业资格号：F03112296 投资咨询号：Z0021040 何天 从业资格号：F03120615 投资咨询号：Z0022965 黄蕾 从业资格号：F0307990 投资咨询号：Z0011692 高慧 从业资格号：F03099478 投资咨询号：Z0017785 敬请参阅最后一页免责声明 要点 要点 要点 ⚫ 国际方面：中美贸易冲突再度升级，中国仍未采购美豆， 市场对月底APEC期间中美会晤大豆采购担忧再起；前期 阿根廷短暂取消出口关税，中国大规模采购补充远端缺 口，当前11-1月船期待采大豆量有1000万吨左右，缺口 较前期缩窄，后续关注政策调整及国际市场采买情况； 美国政府停摆导致数据发布暂停，预计收割工作顺利进 行，出口担忧情绪仍存，市场预计10月USDA报告小幅下 调单产至53.2蒲/英亩。巴西产区降水持续，有利于播种 推 ...

| | 1、分析师们估计，截至10月5日，大豆收割完成39%，高于往年同期水平。一项调查显示，分析师 | | --- | --- | | | 预计截至10月2日当周，美国2025/26年度大豆出口净销售量位于60万到160万吨之间。2、据马来 | | 行业 | 西亚独立检验机构AmSpec，马来西亚10月1-10日棕榈油出口量为495415吨，较上月同期出口的 | | 信息 | 415030吨增加19.37%。 | | | 蛋白粕：夜盘豆菜粕震荡走弱，USDA发布的季度库存报告显示，截至2025年9月1日美国旧作大豆 | | | 库存总量为3.16亿蒲式耳，同比下降8%，略低于此前供需报告给出的预估，报告对市场影响中性 | | | 。而本月USDA报告也即将发布，由于此前美国农业部对于单产的调整幅度有限。因此在本月报告 | | | 中对美农下调单产的预期较高，主要考虑到8月末以来美豆产区天气转差导致美豆优良率下滑。但 | | | 由于美国政府停摆，10月USDA供需报告推迟，市场交易受到抑制，预计美豆期价继续震荡走势为 | | | 主。国内方面供应充足始终抑制盘面，预计连粕继续区间震荡为主。 | | 评论 | ...

油脂油料早报 研究中心农产品团队 2025/10/13 隔 夜 市 场 信 息 ： Patria AgroNegocios：巴西大豆播种完成12.48% 咨询机构Patria AgroNegocios发布的报告显示，巴西农户已播种2025年预期大豆种植面积的12.48%，较去年同期 5.28%的播种进度显著提升。 马来西亚9月底棕榈油库存增至约两年高位 马来西亚棕榈油总署（MPOB）周五公布的供需月报显示，马来西亚9月底棕榈油库存接近约两年来最高水平，该国 棕榈油库存已经连续七个月增长。 数据显示，截至9月末，马来西亚的棕榈油库存为较前月增加7.2%，至236万吨，尽管该国棕榈油出口量增加且产出 下降。马来西亚9月毛棕榈油产量较前月减少0.73%，至184万吨；终结连续两个月增加趋势；当月棕榈油出口量增加 7.69%至143万吨，为自2024年11月以来的最高水平。 报告发布之前的调查显示马来西亚9月末棕榈油库存为215万吨，产量料为179万吨，出口量料为143万吨。 AmSpec：马来西亚10月1-10日棕榈油出口量环比增加19.4% 独立检验公司AmSpec Agri发布数据显示，马来西亚2025年10月 ...

交易咨询资格号： 证监许可[2012]112 1.趋势判断观点主要基于各品种的基本面等因素。 2.详情请查看下文或扫描二维码查看中泰期货股份有限公司公众号宏观视点、商品看点栏目。 [Table_Report] 中泰期货公众号 晨会纪要 2025 年 10 月 13 日 | | [Table_Finance] | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 联系人：王竣冬 | 2025/10/13 | | 基于基本面研判 | | | | 期货从业资格：F3024685 | 趋势空头 | 震荡偏空 | 震 荡 | 震荡偏多 | 趋势多头 | | | | 液化石油气 | 工业硅 | 二债 | | | 交易咨询从业证书号：Z0013759 | | 铝 | 沥青 | 五债 | | | 研究咨询电话： | | 纸浆 | 多晶硅 | 十债 | | | | | 氧化铝 | 碳酸锂 | 三十债 | | | 0531-81678626 | | 原油 | 玉米 | | | | | | 铁矿石 | 红枣 | | | | 客服电话： | | 锌 | 苹果 | | | | | | 螺纹 ...

【行情分析】： 玉米：新季玉米已陆续上市，国庆期间市场收购价大幅下调。短期来看，受粮源集中上市影响，玉米价格仍将维持弱势。中长期需重点关注产 区农户与贸易商的博弈，当前新季玉米产量增加、种植成本下滑，价格已逐步向种植成本靠拢；但鉴于当前绝对价格偏低且今年粮质较好，若 价格出现大幅回调，预计将触发农户抗价惜售情绪，进而带动玉米价格迎来反弹。 淀粉：节后，新季玉米陆续上市，企业普遍下调原料收购价格。但受成品淀粉制成成本偏高影响，淀粉端调价空间有限。短期来看，原料价格 走弱将带动淀粉价格预期下行，且随着企业开机率回升，库存大概率累积，这将进一步制约淀粉价格的反弹可能。中长期需重点关注下游消费 节奏变化，若淀粉价格出现大幅下跌，预计将刺激下游补货积极性提升，届时价格有望获得支撑。 白糖 现货价格 基差 进口利润 仓单 日期 柳州 南宁 昆明 柳州基差 泰国 巴西 郑盘 2025/09/26 5890 5780 5810 412 289 471 9464 2025/09/29 5890 5780 5810 411 255 436 8981 2025/09/30 5890 5780 5810 397 232 414 89 ...