Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The negotiation between the US and Iran is in a state of "talking and fighting", with unclear negotiation expectations, leading to high - level fluctuations in the US dollar index [1][11]. - A - shares opened higher and closed higher, but the sustainability of the short - term rebound of the stock index remains to be observed [2][15]. - The bond market has no trend - like market and is more concerned about geopolitical situations [3][16]. - The prices of various commodities are affected by factors such as geopolitical situations, supply - demand relationships, and cost changes, showing different trends [4][20][26] Summary by Directory 1. Financial News and Comments 1.1 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - A private credit fund managed by Ares Management had a record - breaking monthly loss in February, indicating the deterioration of the $1.8 trillion private credit market [10]. - Milan believes that the current monetary policy is suppressing the economy and advocates a 1 - percentage - point interest rate cut this year [11]. - The negotiation between the US and Iran is in a state of "talking and fighting", with unclear negotiation expectations, and the US dollar is fluctuating at a high level. It is recommended to expect the US dollar index to fluctuate at a high level [11][12]. 1.2 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - A - shares opened higher and closed higher, with the Shanghai Composite Index regaining 3900 points, and the market had more than 4800 rising stocks [13]. - Iran stated that non - hostile ships meeting certain conditions can pass through the Strait of Hormuz, reducing the market's concern about crude oil supply shortages and causing a significant rise in risk assets. However, the sustainability of the short - term rebound of the stock index remains to be observed. It is recommended to wait for the situation to become clear before making right - side trades [15]. 1.3 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - The central bank conducted 78.5 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net investment of 58 billion yuan on the day, and will also conduct 500 billion yuan of MLF operations [16]. - The bond market has no trend - like market and is more concerned about geopolitical situations. It is recommended to closely monitor the war situation and take a wait - and - see approach [16][17]. 2. Commodity News and Comments 2.1 Black Metal (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - The sintering machine renovation project of Henan Iron and Steel's Zhoukou Base was successfully put into operation [18]. - Steel prices are oscillating weakly. The progress of the iron ore negotiation has led to a decline in ore prices and steel prices. The steel product fundamentals lack clear drivers, and the downstream terminal demand is limited. It is recommended to hold a small - position wait - and - see attitude [18][19]. 2.2 Black Metal (Coking Coal/Coke) - The price of coking coal in the northern Shanxi market has increased. The short - term price is affected by international crude oil prices, and in the long - term, the upward movement of coking coal prices is still restricted. It is necessary to focus on the resumption of molten iron production, terminal demand fulfillment, and coal mine resumption progress [20][21]. 2.3 Agricultural Products (Corn) - As of March 20, 2026, the domestic and foreign trade corn inventories in Guangdong Port decreased, while the inventories of imported sorghum and barley increased [22]. - The supply of corn is expected to increase, and the downstream demand has support. Policy auctions also provide bottom - line support for the corn market. It is expected that corn will maintain a high - level oscillation pattern, and it is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of selling call options [23][25]. 2.4 Non - ferrous Metals (Platinum) - The average price of platinum and palladium rebounded slightly. The fundamentals lack a clear trading theme, and they mainly follow macro - level fluctuations. It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of platinum's oversold rebound, use option positions, and wait and see for palladium. Also, pay attention to the opportunity of going long on platinum and short on palladium in the medium term [26][27]. 2.5 Non - ferrous Metals (Lead) - The LME lead showed a discount of $35.03 per ton on March 24. The lead price is oscillating at a low level. The downstream consumption is facing the off - season, but there is cost support at the bottom. It is recommended to pay attention to the mid - line opportunity of buying on dips, preferably on the right - hand side, and wait and see for arbitrage [28]. 2.6 Non - ferrous Metals (Zinc) - The CZSPT released the import zinc concentrate TC price guidance range for the end of the second quarter of 2026. The zinc price is oscillating at a low level. It is recommended to wait for the price to stabilize and the volatility to decline, and then pay attention to the mid - line opportunity of buying on dips. For arbitrage, maintain a long - short position in the domestic - foreign market in the mid - line [30][31]. 2.7 Non - ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - Zijin Mining plans to put the Manono lithium mine in the Congo into production in June this year, and Yahua Group signed a five - year lithium spodumene concentrate purchase agreement [32]. - The supply of lithium carbonate is expected to be in a tight balance in the short - term, and it is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of buying on dips after the price correction [34][35]. 2.8 Non - ferrous Metals (Copper) - Luoyang钼业 released the production guidance for its main products in 2026. The copper price is affected by the Middle East war situation and is expected to continue to oscillate and build a bottom. It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term and pay attention to the domestic - foreign long - short arbitrage [36][39]. 2.9 Non - ferrous Metals (Tin) - Indonesia's tin ingot exports increased in February. The supply and demand of tin are both weak, and the short - term price decline was blocked by inventory reduction. It is necessary to pay attention to the evolution of the macro - trend [39][42]. 2.10 Energy Chemicals (Liquefied Petroleum Gas) - According to EIA weekly data, the US propane/propylene inventory increased. The price of LPG is expected to fluctuate widely due to the complex geopolitical situation [43][45]. 2.11 Energy Chemicals (Styrene) - The inventory of styrene in the East China main port decreased. After the geopolitical risk premium is gradually squeezed out, there may still be opportunities for low - buying in the future [45][46]. 2.12 Energy Chemicals (Asphalt) - The capacity utilization rate of domestic heavy - traffic asphalt decreased. The asphalt price is expected to oscillate in the short - term due to supply risks [47][48]. 2.13 Shipping Index (Container Freight Rate) - COSCO Shipping resumed booking services for some countries in the Middle East, but it does not mean that the Strait of Hormuz has resumed navigation. The market's focus is still on the navigation situation of the Strait of Hormuz [49][51].

Report Investment Ratings - Cotton: ★☆★, indicating a bullish bias but limited operability on the trading floor [1] - Pulp: ★★★, suggesting a clearer bullish trend and relatively appropriate investment opportunities [1] - Sugar: ★★★, indicating a clearer bullish trend and relatively appropriate investment opportunities [1] - Apple: ★★★, suggesting a clearer bullish trend and relatively appropriate investment opportunities [1] - Timber: ★★★, indicating a clearer bullish trend and relatively appropriate investment opportunities [1] - 20 - rubber: ☆☆☆, representing a short - term equilibrium state with poor operability, suggesting a wait - and - see approach [1] - Natural rubber: ★★★, indicating a clearer bullish trend and relatively appropriate investment opportunities [1] - Butadiene rubber: ☆☆☆, representing a short - term equilibrium state with poor operability, suggesting a wait - and - see approach [1] Core Views - The report analyzes the market conditions of various soft commodities including cotton, sugar, apple, rubber, pulp, and timber, and provides corresponding investment suggestions based on supply, demand, and inventory situations [2][3][4] Summary by Commodity Cotton & Cotton Yarn - Zhengzhou cotton rose slightly, and the spot basis remained stable. Downstream spinning mills mainly made bargain purchases with average transactions. The demand in the peak season in March was good, and mills with low inventories had a certain willingness to stock up. The domestic import quota was issued, narrowing the price gap between domestic and foreign cotton. As of March 15, the national commercial cotton inventory was 523.02 million tons, a decrease of 24.68 million tons from the end of February, and 5.31 million tons higher than the same period last year. The national commercial inventory changed from lower to higher year - on - year compared with the end of February. The peak season in China showed a positive performance, the开机 rate continued to rise, and the inventory of cotton yarn and grey cloth was well digested. Recently, the sales of pure cotton yarn have slowed down. In the medium term, a bullish strategy for Zhengzhou cotton is maintained [2] Sugar - Overnight, US sugar fluctuated. The market focused on Brazil's production forecast. After the rainy season, there was less rainfall in the central - southern main producing areas of Brazil, which was unfavorable for sugarcane growth. The sugar - alcohol price ratio dropped significantly, and the sugar - making ratio in the new season was expected to decline, resulting in a decrease in Brazil's sugar production in the 26/27 season. In China, Zhengzhou sugar fluctuated. From January to February, China imported 520,000 tons of sugar, an increase of 440,900 tons year - on - year. Both the production and sales progress were slow. The significant decline in sales was mainly due to strong bearish sentiment in the market, leading to less procurement. Although there was a strong expectation of increased production in Guangxi in the 25/26 season, the production progress was always slow. For now, a wait - and - see approach is recommended [3] Apple - The futures price fluctuated. The spot price remained stable. In the northwest producing areas, merchants had high procurement enthusiasm, and the prices of some specifications of goods were relatively strong. In Shandong, there were few transactions, and merchants mainly purchased medium - to - low - grade goods. In Shaanxi and Gansu, merchants mainly looked for high - quality goods, but there were not many remaining high - quality goods. As of March 19, the national cold - storage apple inventory was 4.1892 million tons, a 6% year - on - year decrease. The market's trading logic focused on the demand side. After the Spring Festival, the demand in the northwest producing areas was good, and the prices were relatively strong. However, the apples in Shandong had poor quality but high acquisition prices, which might affect the sales speed. As the market started to trade Shandong goods, and the goods in Shandong had low cost - effectiveness, the price increase was weak, and funds withdrew, leading to a sharp price drop. For now, a wait - and - see approach is recommended [4] 20 - rubber, Natural Rubber, and Synthetic Rubber - Today, the futures prices of natural rubber (RU) and 20 - rubber (NR) rose slightly, and the futures price of butadiene rubber (BR) rose significantly. The domestic spot prices of natural rubber and synthetic rubber increased, and the port price of butadiene in the external market rose. In terms of supply, the global natural rubber supply will shift from the low - production period to the increasing - production period, with the Yunnan production area starting trial tapping first, while Hainan in China, Vietnam and other production areas are still in the suspension - tapping period. Last week, the operating rate of domestic butadiene rubber plants continued to decline, with some plants such as Dushanzi Petrochemical, Jinzhou Petrochemical, Zhenhua New Materials, and Shandong Weite continuing to stop for maintenance, and more plants in Zhejiang Petrochemical temporarily stopping or reducing loads. The operating rate of upstream butadiene plants continued to decline. In terms of demand, the domestic tire operating rate continued to rise last week. Domestic tire enterprises raised prices passively as costs increased. The finished - product inventory of all - steel tires in Shandong continued to decline, while that of semi - steel tires continued to increase. In terms of inventory, this week, the total natural rubber inventory in Qingdao announced by Longzhong increased to 685,600 tons, with both the bonded - area inventory and general - trade inventory increasing. Last week, the social inventory of cis - butadiene rubber in China announced by Zhuochuang continued to decline to 18,800 tons, and the upstream butadiene tower - mouth inventory in China continued to decline to 27,600 tons. Overall, geopolitical risks still exist, cost - driven factors are dominant, domestic demand continues to strengthen, external demand needs improvement, rubber supply decreases, natural rubber inventory increases, synthetic rubber inventory decreases, and market sentiment fluctuates sharply. A wait - and - see approach is recommended, and opportunities for cross - variety arbitrage can be grasped [5] Pulp - Today, the pulp futures rose slightly, and there was still some support near the bottom. The fundamentals of pulp were still average. The domestic pulp port inventory was still at a high level, and there was some inventory reduction. As of March 19, 2026, the inventory of mainstream ports of Chinese pulp was 2.297 million tons, a decrease of 76,000 tons from the previous period, a 3.2% month - on - month decrease, and the port inventory had decreased for two consecutive weeks. The overseas quotation of pulp was strong, providing some support for long - term costs. The overseas quotation of broad - leaf pulp increased in March. The overall domestic demand for pulp was average, and the procurement of high - priced broad - leaf pulp was cautious. The prices and profits of downstream base paper were not good. In the short term, pulp may maintain a low - level range - bound oscillation [6] Timber - The futures price fluctuated. The spot price remained stable. In terms of supply, the external market quotation increased significantly, while the domestic spot price was relatively weak, and the future arrival volume may be relatively low. In terms of demand, the downstream demand increased, and the port outbound volume increased. Last week, the average daily outbound volume of national ports was 61,400 cubic meters, a 4.36% year - on - year decrease. As of March 20, the total national port log inventory was 2.95 million cubic meters, an 18.96% year - on - year decrease. The total national log inventory was low, and the inventory pressure was relatively small. Overall, the low inventory provided some support for the price. For now, a wait - and - see approach is recommended [7]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the increasing volatility in the global commodity market since 2026, driven by geopolitical instability and rising supply risks, while domestic demand for commodities is expected to stabilize due to government policies aimed at efficiency and structural adjustments [1]. Group 1: Industrial Supply Optimization - The government report highlights the implementation of a dual control system for carbon emissions and the comprehensive rectification of "involution" competition, particularly affecting the steel and coal industries [2]. - In the steel sector, supply governance is shifting from merely reducing output to optimizing capacity, with carbon constraints becoming a key driver for this optimization [2]. - The steel industry is expected to transition towards a clearing phase, benefiting profit levels as carbon constraints tighten over time [2]. Group 2: Coal Industry Dynamics - The coal sector faces constraints on capacity utilization due to "involution" policies, limiting the elasticity of coal production, although large-scale capacity reduction is unlikely due to energy security concerns [3]. - Under the dual carbon goals, coal consumption will face increasing pressure from renewable energy alternatives, with coal power expected to enter a "peak zone" during the 14th Five-Year Plan [3]. - The projected compound annual growth rate (CAGR) for coal power generation during the 14th Five-Year Plan is -0.3%, indicating a slow decline with potential fluctuations due to weather conditions [3]. Group 3: Energy Security and Structure - The report sets a target for energy production capacity to reach 5.8 billion tons of standard coal by 2025, enhancing energy self-sufficiency [4]. - By 2025, China's primary energy production capacity is expected to reach 5.13 billion tons of standard coal, marking a 3.6% year-on-year increase, with natural gas and electricity generation growing at rates of 6.3% and 4.8%, respectively [4]. - Coal remains a cornerstone of China's energy system, with coal production expected to contribute approximately 3.46 billion tons of standard coal by 2025, despite a declining share [4]. Group 4: Food Security Measures - The government report outlines a shift in agricultural policy towards a balanced focus on quantity, capacity, and overall efficiency, emphasizing a comprehensive approach to food security [5]. - The target for grain production is set to stabilize at around 1.4 trillion jin, reflecting a commitment to absolute food supply security and basic self-sufficiency [6]. - Policies aim to address structural contradictions in grain and oil supply, including bolstering soybean production and expanding oilseed cultivation to reduce reliance on imports [6].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The short - term trend of soybean meal is expected to continue a slight adjustment, and attention should be paid to the release of the estimated planting area of US soybeans at the end of the month. The increase in the estimated planting area of US soybeans and the recovery of Brazilian soybean shipments put pressure on US soybeans, and the easing of the Middle - East situation also exerts downward pressure on the entire commodity market [1][2]. - The decline of the oil sector is relatively restrained. Future attention should be focused on the US biofuel blending obligation volume and the development of the Middle - East situation. The social media message of Trump led to the decline of the crude oil and oil sectors, but the Iran issue is still ongoing and the US biofuel policy is about to be announced [2][3]. 3. Summary by Related Content Soybean Meal - The expected planting area of US soybeans in 2026 is 86.1 million acres, higher than 81.2 million acres in 2025 and the 85 million acres predicted by the USDA in February. The expected planting area of US corn in 2026 is 94.4 million acres, lower than 98.8 million acres in 2025 but slightly higher than the 94 million acres predicted by the USDA in February [1]. - China has agreed to abandon the zero - tolerance policy for weeds in soybean shipments at ports, but the specific implementation depends on further bilateral negotiations. From March 1 - 20, 2026, the soybean export volume in Brazil was 9.5 million tons, with a daily average export volume of 633,435 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 17.9%. The average export price of soybeans so far in March is $408.0 per ton, a year - on - year increase of 5.4% [1]. Oil - The US EPA is in the final stage of issuing the Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS) biofuel mandatory blending rules and will complete the decision by the end of the month. The US President will announce new biofuel blending quotas on Friday. The proposed mandatory blending volume of renewable fuels in 2026 is about 24.002 billion gallons and 24.46 billion gallons in 2027, higher than 22.33 billion gallons in 2025 [2]. - From March 1 - 25, 2026, the export volume of Malaysian palm oil was 1,389,549 tons, a 51% increase compared to the same period last month [2].

软商品日报 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 周二，ICE 美棉上涨 0.58%，报收 67.57 美分/磅，郑棉主力合约环比下降 0.62%， | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 报收 15215 元/吨，主力合约持仓环比下降 6181 手至 57.16 万手，棉花 3128B 现货 价格指数 16420 元/吨，较前一日下降 30 元/吨。国际市场方面，近期中东地区扰 | | | | 动持续且反复，美元指数仍在 99 以上，黄金、原油价格反复，预计短期美棉期价 | | | 棉花 | 仍震荡为主。国内市场方面，郑棉主力合约窄幅震荡，5-9 价差持续扩大，远月走 | 震荡 | | | 势略强。基本面来看，多空因素均有，后续市场关注点有二，第一是新棉种植情 | | | | 况，关注是否会有预期差，此外，新一轮棉花目标价格补贴政策通常会在 4 月初 | | | | 公布，持续关注。第二是中东局势变化。综合来看，预计短期郑棉震荡为主，中 | | | | 长期我们认为上方仍有一定空间。 消息方面，据泛糖科技数据显示，截至 3 月 20 日，广西食糖第三方仓库库存数量 | | | | 约为 2 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - External shocks still exist, and stock index is expected to fluctuate. Trump's delay of the ultimatum to Iran provides a short - term respite for the capital market, increasing the probability of a short - term rebound in the stock index [1]. - Multiple factors such as allocation demand, expectations of monetary policy easing, supply pressure from fiscal stimulus, and profit - taking behavior in the trading market lead to the volatile operation of treasury bonds [1]. - The complex Middle East situation makes it difficult for market risk appetite to rise rapidly, and copper and aluminum prices face downward pressure. Alumina prices are supported but the upside is limited due to oversupply [1]. - Zinc and tin prices rebound due to improved market sentiment, but investors are advised to wait and see because of high uncertainty in the Middle East situation [1]. - Nickel prices may fluctuate widely due to supply tightness and macro - emotional volatility. Stainless steel futures are expected to run strongly with short - term operations recommended [1]. - Precious metal prices stop falling and fluctuate. In the short term, they may fluctuate due to the unresolved Middle East situation [1]. - Industrial silicon has supply resumption, weak demand, and inventory reduction; polysilicon has strong energy - storage demand, weak power demand, and battery rush for exports [1]. - Steel products such as rebar and hot - rolled coils are in the de - stocking cycle. Their prices are mainly affected by cost support and are expected to fluctuate [1]. - Iron ore, ferrosilicon, and other products have weak short - term supply and demand, but are supported by geopolitical conflicts and costs [1]. - Glass and soda ash prices are affected by short - term geopolitical conflicts and long - term supply - demand relationships [1]. - Coking coal and coke may have a short - term rally, but investors need to pay attention to the development of the war and control risks [1]. - Oils may experience a short - term correction after a sharp rise, but the long - term view is bullish [1]. - Cotton prices are expected to rise in the medium and long term due to reduced planting expectations and demand recovery; sugar prices are expected to have limited fluctuations with an internal - strong and external - weak pattern [1]. - Grains such as corn and soybeans are expected to have short - term fluctuations, and investors can wait for opportunities to go long on soybeans [1]. - Pulp futures are expected to be weak in the short term [1]. - Crude oil prices are affected by geopolitical factors. In the short term, it is recommended to wait and see [1]. - Hog prices are expected to fluctuate as production capacity needs further release [1]. - Energy products such as fuel oil, asphalt, and rubber are affected by geopolitical factors and supply - demand relationships [1]. - Chemical products such as PTA, ethylene glycol, and styrene face supply shortages due to geopolitical conflicts [1]. - Fertilizers such as urea and methanol are affected by geopolitical factors and domestic supply - demand situations [1]. - Plastics such as PE, PVC, and LPG are affected by geopolitical factors, supply - demand relationships, and cost factors [1]. - The shipping market is affected by war emotions and has a strong willingness to stop falling and raise prices [1]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Macro - Financial - Stock Index: External shocks still exist, and the stock index is expected to fluctuate. Trump's delay of the ultimatum to Iran provides a short - term respite, increasing the probability of a short - term rebound [1]. - Treasury Bonds: Multiple factors lead to the volatile operation of treasury bonds [1]. Non - Ferrous Metals - Copper: The complex Middle East situation makes it difficult for market risk appetite to rise rapidly, and copper prices have a risk of decline [1]. - Aluminum: The Middle East situation has not cooled down, and aluminum prices are under short - term pressure [1]. - Alumina: Rising energy prices, freight rates, and potential export quotas in Guinea support prices, but the oversupply pattern limits the upside [1]. - Zinc: Zinc prices rebound due to improved market sentiment, but investors are advised to wait and see because of high uncertainty in the Middle East situation [1]. - Nickel: Nickel prices may fluctuate widely due to supply tightness and macro - emotional volatility. Short - term operations are recommended [1]. - Stainless Steel: Stainless steel futures are expected to run strongly with short - term operations recommended [1]. - Tin: Tin prices rebound due to improved market sentiment, but investors are advised to wait and see because of high uncertainty in the Middle East situation [1]. Precious Metals and New Energy - Precious Metals: Precious metal prices stop falling and fluctuate. In the short term, they may fluctuate due to the unresolved Middle East situation [1]. - Platinum and Palladium: Prices may stop falling and stabilize in the short term, but they may still fluctuate due to the Middle East situation [1]. - Industrial Silicon: Supply resumes, demand is weak, and inventory is reduced [1]. - Polysilicon: Energy - storage demand is strong, power demand is weak, and there is a battery rush for exports [1]. Black Metals - Rebar: In the de - stocking cycle, demand is average, and prices are mainly supported by cost and valuation [1]. - Hot - Rolled Coils: In the de - stocking cycle, inventory is high, and prices are expected to fluctuate. Positive arbitrage positions can be gradually entered [1]. - Iron Ore: Short - term supply and demand are weak, but prices are supported by geopolitical conflicts and costs [1]. - Ferrosilicon: Short - term supply and demand are weak, but prices are supported by geopolitical conflicts and costs [1]. - Glass: Prices are affected by short - term geopolitical conflicts and long - term supply - demand relationships [1]. - Soda Ash: Follows glass prices, affected by short - term geopolitical conflicts and long - term supply - demand relationships [1]. - Coking Coal: May have a short - term rally, but investors need to pay attention to the development of the war and control risks [1]. - Coke: Similar to coking coal [1]. Agricultural Products - Oils: May experience a short - term correction after a sharp rise, but the long - term view is bullish [1]. - Cotton: International cotton inventory is expected to tighten, and domestic cotton prices are expected to rise in the medium and long term [1]. - Sugar: Global sugar supply is abundant, and domestic sugar prices are expected to have limited fluctuations with an internal - strong and external - weak pattern [1]. - Grains: Corn prices may have a short - term correction, and soybean investors can wait for opportunities to go long [1]. - Pulp: Futures are expected to be weak in the short term [1]. Energy and Chemicals - Crude Oil: Affected by geopolitical factors, it is recommended to wait and see in the short term [1]. - Fuel Oil: Affected by the Middle East situation, market sentiment is positive, and risk appetite is rising [1]. - Asphalt: Affected by the cost of crude oil, the impact is relatively weak in the energy sector [1]. - Rubber: Supported by cost, commodity market sentiment is positive, and the futures - spot price difference is large [1]. - BR Rubber: Prices rise due to supply shortages, and the downstream negative feedback is gradually realized [1]. - PTA: Affected by crude oil fluctuations and PX supply shortages, the polyester industry chain may face production decline [1]. - Ethylene Glycol: Affected by the shortage of raw materials, prices rise [1]. - Short - Fibre: Prices follow cost fluctuations [1]. - Styrene: Supply is tight, and non - integrated producers' profits are inverted [1]. - Urea: Export sentiment eases, and prices are supported by cost [1]. - Methanol: Affected by the Iranian situation, domestic supply is abundant [1]. - PE: Affected by geopolitical factors, the fundamentals are weak [1]. - PVC: Future expectations are optimistic due to capacity reduction [1]. - LPG: The price is affected by geopolitical factors, and there is a differentiation between the domestic and international markets [1]. Shipping - Container Shipping on European Routes: Affected by war emotions, there is a strong willingness to stop falling and raise prices [1].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No information provided in the reports regarding industry investment ratings. Core Views Oils and Fats - Malaysian BMD crude palm oil futures are pressured by crude oil trends and may test the support at 4,500 ringgit. Domestic Dalian palm oil futures are in a downward adjustment, seeking support at 9,500 yuan, with a chance of a weak rebound but continued downward pressure [1]. - CBOT soybean oil may rise if the US biodiesel policy is favorable. In China, if the zero - tolerance policy for Brazilian soybeans is relaxed, soybean supply will increase, dragging down the spot basis [1]. - Rapeseed oil prices are affected by geopolitical events. The market is waiting for the US biodiesel policy and the development of the Middle East conflict. Spot prices fluctuate with the market, and the basis fluctuates within 20 yuan/ton [1]. Cotton - ICE cotton futures are affected by a stronger US dollar and inflation concerns. US cotton production is expected to be around 3.05 million tons. It is expected to maintain a wide - range oscillation between 65 - 70 cents/pound. In China, the cotton price may also oscillate widely due to the balance of long - and short - term factors [2]. Sugar - ICE raw sugar futures reach a five - month high, supported by energy prices. Brazilian sugar production may be affected by the preference for ethanol production. Indian sugar production is approaching the end of the season. Short - term raw sugar is expected to be oscillating and slightly stronger. In China, sugar imports in January - February exceed expectations. The spot market has weak sales but stable prices, and the futures market is strong but limited by weak production and sales in February and increased industrial inventory [4]. Red Dates - Affected by macro funds and the good quality of new dates, the futures market rebounds slightly from the low - valuation range, but the upside is limited by weak market conditions. In the off - season, the consumption end is weak, inventory reduction is slow, and the number of futures warehouse receipts registered is decreasing year - on - year. It is recommended to short on rebounds [6]. Apples - The apple spot market shows a more obvious structural differentiation. Good - quality apples have a better trading atmosphere, while ordinary apples in Shandong have inventory pressure. The national apple cold - storage inventory is at a historical low, which supports the futures price. There is a short - term risk of price correction, and attention should be paid to the inventory reduction of ordinary apples and weather changes [11]. Corn and Corn Starch - The supply and demand of corn in the Northeast and North China are relatively balanced, and prices are stable. The demand from deep - processing enterprises exists, but feed enterprises' demand for high - priced corn is average, and wheat substitution is increasing. Policy wheat auctions may squeeze corn demand. Corn prices are under pressure but limited by low social inventory, and the operation range is 2,350 - 2,420 yuan/ton [14]. Meal - The US soybean futures are oscillating around 1,160 cents, with mixed long - and short factors. The domestic soybean meal market has fully priced in concerns about shutdowns and supply continuity. The concern about delayed arrivals of Brazilian soybeans is easing, and the spot market is weak. Short - term inventory is expected to be tight, and soybean meal is expected to maintain a high - level oscillation, waiting for the planting intention report at the end of March [16]. Pigs - The futures and spot prices of pigs continue to decline, and market sentiment is pessimistic. The large number of pig sales, high slaughter weight, and weak price difference between fat and lean pigs are not conducive to secondary fattening. In the off - season, downstream procurement recovers slowly, and the increase in slaughter volume has limited impact. The market focuses on secondary fattening and frozen product storage. The price may stop falling after breaking 10,000 yuan/ton, and the spot price is expected to continue to bottom out [18]. Eggs - On the supply side, the price of culled chickens is high and shows a downward trend, and farmers' willingness to cull chickens has increased. The number of newly - laid hens has increased slightly but is still at a relatively low level. The overall supply is relatively loose, and the inventory pressure is not large this week. On the demand side, the demand is slightly boosted by the Tomb - Sweeping Festival, but the supply is sufficient, and the price increase is limited. The terminal demand is weak, and the egg price is expected to maintain a low - level oscillation [20]. Summary by Related Catalogs Oils and Fats - **Price Changes**: The 05 - 09 spreads of soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil all decreased, with decreases of 16.22%, 59.26%, and 9.24% respectively. The spot and futures prices of various oils also changed to different degrees [1]. - **Inventory Changes**: The palm oil warehouse receipts decreased by 100% to 0 [1]. Cotton - **Futures Market**: The price of cotton 2605 remained unchanged, while the price of cotton 2609 increased by 0.23%. The 5 - 9 spread decreased by 33.33%. The main contract's open interest decreased by 1.07%, and the number of warehouse receipts decreased by 0.24%, while the valid forecast increased by 22.06% [2]. - **Spot Market**: The Xinjiang arrival price and CC Index of 3128B increased, while the FC Index:M: 1% decreased. The spreads between 3128B and futures contracts and between CC Index:3128B and FC Index:M: 1% all increased [2]. - **Industry Situation**: The weekly inventory decreased by 100%, the industrial inventory increased by 14.5%, the import volume decreased by 19.0%, the bonded area inventory increased by 9.8%, the yarn inventory days decreased by 1.2%, the grey fabric inventory days increased by 0.3%, the spinning enterprise's processing profit decreased by 4.8%, the retail sales of clothing and textiles increased by 7.7%, the year - on - year growth rate of clothing and textiles decreased by 82.9%, and the export volume of textile yarns and clothing decreased [2]. Sugar - **Futures Market**: The prices of sugar 2605 and 2609 decreased by 0.44% and 0.40% respectively, and the 5 - 9 spread decreased by 6.90%. The main contract's open interest decreased by 3.77%, the number of warehouse receipts remained unchanged, and the valid forecast increased from 0 to 520 [4]. - **Spot Market**: The prices in Nanning and Kunming decreased, and the basis increased. The prices of imported Brazilian sugar (both within and outside the quota) increased, and the spreads between imported sugar and Nanning prices also increased [4]. - **Industry Situation**: The cumulative sugar production and sales nationwide and in Guangxi decreased, the sugar sales rate decreased, the industrial inventory increased, and the sugar import volume increased significantly [4]. Red Dates - **Futures Market**: The prices of red date 2605, 2607, and 2609 all increased, and the 5 - 7 and 5 - 9 spreads also increased. The open interest increased by 0.41%, the number of warehouse receipts remained unchanged, the valid forecast increased by 45.98%, and the sum of warehouse receipts and valid forecasts increased by 1.87% [6]. - **Spot Market**: The prices of Cangzhou's special - grade, first - grade, and second - grade red dates remained unchanged, and the basis decreased [6]. Apples - **Futures Market**: The price of apple 2605 decreased by 0.71%, the price of apple 2610 decreased by 0.09%, the basis decreased by 6.35%, the 5 - 10 spread decreased by 4.25%, the open interest decreased by 10.12%, and the national cold - storage inventory decreased by 6.26% [8]. - **Spot Market**: The arrival volume at some fruit wholesale markets increased [8]. Corn and Corn Starch - **Corn**: The price of corn 2605 decreased by 1.33%, the Jinzhou Port FAS price increased by 0.21%, the basis increased by 370.00%, the 5 - 9 spread decreased by 61.54%, the Shekou Port market price remained unchanged, the north - south trade profit increased by 35.71%, the Brazilian CIF duty - paid price decreased by 0.76%, the import profit increased by 14.08%, the number of remaining vehicles at Shandong deep - processing enterprises in the morning decreased by 19.09%, the open interest decreased by 1.61%, and the number of warehouse receipts remained unchanged [14]. - **Corn Starch**: The price of corn starch 2605 decreased by 1.18%, the average price of corn starch decreased by 0.13%, the basis increased by 16.48%, the Weifang spot price decreased by 0.33%, the Changchun spot price remained unchanged, the 5 - 9 spread decreased by 150.00%, the 05 spread between starch and corn decreased by 0.26%, the Shandong starch profit remained unchanged, the open interest decreased by 2.06%, and the number of warehouse receipts remained unchanged [14]. Meal - **Soybean Meal**: The spot price in Jiangsu decreased by 0.90%, the futures price of M2605 decreased by 0.73%, the basis decreased by 2.49%, the spot basis quote remained unchanged, the Brazilian May shipment basis import crushing profit decreased by 5.6%, and the number of warehouse receipts decreased by 3.6% [16]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: The spot price in Jiangsu decreased by 1.12%, the futures price of RM2605 decreased by 0.99%, the basis decreased by 2.43%, the Canadian July shipment basis import crushing profit increased by 400.00%, and the number of warehouse receipts remained at 0 [16]. - **Soybeans**: The spot price of Harbin soybeans remained unchanged, the futures price of the main soybean contract decreased by 0.83%, the basis increased by 9.76%, the spot price of imported soybeans in Jiangsu remained unchanged, the futures price of the main soybean contract 2 remained unchanged, the basis remained unchanged, and the number of warehouse receipts decreased by 0.50% [16]. - **Spreads**: The 05 - 09 spreads of soybean meal and rapeseed meal decreased, the ratio of soybean to rapeseed meal in the spot market increased by 0.68%, the ratio of oil to meal in the main contract decreased by 0.14%, and the soybean - rapeseed meal spreads in the spot market and 2605 contract remained basically unchanged [16]. Pigs - **Futures Market**: The main contract basis increased by 36.36%, the price of pig 2605 increased by 0.65%, the price of pig 2603 decreased by 3.23%, the 3 - 5 spread decreased by 53.68%, the main contract open interest increased by 2.41%, and the number of warehouse receipts decreased by 1.81% [18]. - **Spot Market**: The prices in various regions decreased to different degrees, and the slaughter rate decreased by 0.47%, the white - strip price, piglet price, and sow price remained unchanged, the slaughter weight increased by 0.05%, the self - breeding profit decreased by 5.13%, the purchased - pig breeding profit decreased by 19.72%, and the number of fertile sows decreased by 0.73% [18]. Eggs - **Futures Market**: The prices of egg 04 and 05 contracts decreased by 0.66% and 1.22% respectively, the basis increased by 27.56%, and the 4 - 5 spread increased by 18.35% [20]. - **Spot Market**: The egg - producing area price remained unchanged, the egg - chick price increased by 2.86%, the culled - chicken price increased by 1.25%, the egg - feed ratio increased by 1.24%, and the breeding profit increased by 9.98% [20].

Group 1: Report's Core Information - Brazil's soybean export volume in March 2026 is expected to be 1,587 tons, lower than last week's forecast of 1,632 tons; the soybean meal export volume is expected to reach 244 tons, also down from last week's forecast of 266 tons [1] - From March 1 - 20, 2026, Malaysia's palm oil product export volume was 889,128 tons, a 61.02% increase compared to the same period last month [1] - Brazil's Paraná state's 2025/26 soybean harvest area has reached 82% of the planted area, 12 percentage points higher than the previous week but behind the 90% progress of the same period last year [1] - In the 2025/26 season, the global rapeseed trade volume is expected to drop to a four - year low of 1,680 tons, while the crushing volume may reach a record high of nearly 8,850 tons [1][2] Group 2: Price and Basis Information Spot Prices | Date | Soybean Meal in Jiangsu | Rapeseed Meal in Guangdong | Soybean Oil in Jiangsu | Palm Oil in Guangzhou | Rapeseed Oil in Jiangsu | | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | | 2026/03/18 | 3300 | 2460 | 8830 | 9610 | 10280 | | 2026/03/19 | 3300 | 2460 | 8910 | 9740 | 10410 | | 2026/03/20 | 3300 | 2440 | 8950 | - | 10430 | | 2026/03/23 | 3270 | 2420 | 9040 | - | 10500 | | 2026/03/24 | 3230 | 2400 | 8970 | 9600 | 10380 | [3] Protein Meal Basis and Oil Basis - The report mentions protein meal basis and oil basis, but no specific data is provided [3] Oil and Oilseed Futures Spread - The report mentions oil and oilseed futures spread, but no specific content is provided [6]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Views - A-share market rebounded strongly with over 5100 stocks rising, and the market turnover reached 2.1 trillion yuan. Military stocks soared, while the oil and gas sector pulled back [28]. - The bond market had a generally strong and volatile performance. Treasury bond futures rose, and the yield of long-term bonds declined. The money market remained stable and loose [17]. - The exchange rate of the onshore RMB against the US dollar rose, while the US dollar index also increased slightly [21]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Macro Data Overview - GDP growth rate in Q4 2025 was 4.5%, lower than the previous quarter and the same period last year [1]. - In February 2026, the manufacturing PMI was 49.0%, and the non-manufacturing PMI for business activities was 49.5%, both lower than the same period last year [1]. - The social financing scale in February 2026 was 2385.5 billion yuan, slightly lower than the previous month but higher than the same period last year [1]. - The year-on-year growth rates of M0, M1, and M2 in February 2026 were 14.1%, 5.9%, and 9.0% respectively, all higher than the previous month and the same period last year [1]. - The new RMB loans in February 2026 were 900 billion yuan, higher than the previous month but lower than the same period last year [1]. - The CPI in February 2026 increased by 1.3% year-on-year, and the PPI decreased by 0.9% year-on-year [1]. - The cumulative year-on-year growth rate of fixed asset investment in February 2026 was 1.8%, and the cumulative year-on-year growth rate of total retail sales of consumer goods was 2.8% [1]. - The year-on-year growth rates of export and import amounts in February 2026 were 39.60% and 13.80% respectively, showing significant growth [1]. 3.2 Commodity Investment Reference 3.2.1 Comprehensive - The US government proposed a 15 - point plan to end the conflict with Iran through Pakistan, covering nuclear programs, missile capabilities, and regional issues. Iran may get sanctions lifted in exchange [2][12]. - Trump said the US was in talks with Iran, and an agreement might be close, but he was not satisfied with the current arrangement [3][13]. - Iran started charging tolls for ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz, and the number of ships decreased by 95% compared to before the conflict [3]. - The EU postponed the proposal to permanently ban the import of Russian oil [3]. - The central bank will conduct a 500 - billion - yuan MLF operation on March 25, with a net increase of 50 billion yuan [4]. 3.2.2 Metals - A large light rare - earth mine was discovered in Mianning County, Sichuan, with an additional resource of 9.6656 million tons of rare - earth oxides [5]. - More central banks are expected to buy gold in 2026 [5]. - Many banks issued risk warnings for precious metals [5]. - Turkey is considering using its $135 - billion gold reserve to support the lira [5]. - India extended the validity of the gold import tariff quota under the India - UAE Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement until June 30 [5]. 3.2.3 Energy and Chemicals - The US proposed a peace plan to Iran, and Qatar Energy declared force majeure on some LNG supply contracts due to missile attacks [6]. - Japan will start releasing its national oil reserve on March 26 [7]. 3.2.4 Agricultural Products - As of mid - March, most agricultural product prices in the national circulation field increased. Bean粕 had the highest increase of 6.82%, while live pigs decreased by 2.88% [8]. 3.3 Financial News Compilation 3.3.1 Open Market - On March 24, the central bank conducted a 17.5 - billion - yuan 7 - day reverse repurchase operation, with a net withdrawal of 3.35 billion yuan. On March 25, it will conduct a 500 - billion - yuan MLF operation, with a net injection of 50 billion yuan [9]. 3.3.2 Key News - The central bank governor met with the CEO of DBS Group, and DBS will be the second RMB clearing bank in Singapore [11]. - The State - owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission emphasized promoting the relocation of central enterprises to Xiongan New Area [11]. - The US proposed a peace plan to Iran, and diplomatic efforts are underway to promote peace [12][13][14]. - The market supervision department will strengthen price supervision and anti - unfair competition work [14]. - The US private credit market shows risk signals, and the debt rating of a private credit fund was downgraded [14]. - The Ministry of Foreign Affairs called for an immediate cease - fire and peace talks in the Iran - related situation [15]. - Japan's finance minister will hold a bond issuance hearing in June [15]. - There were some bond - related events, including non - effective bondholder meetings and credit rating adjustments [15]. 3.3.3 Bond Market Summary - The inter - bank bond market was generally strong and volatile. Treasury bond futures rose, and the yield of long - term bonds declined. The money market remained stable and loose [17]. - The exchange - traded bond market had mixed performances, with some bonds rising and some falling [17]. - The convertible bond index rose, and the short - term Shibor rates mostly declined [18]. - The central bank and policy banks conducted bond issuance operations, and the yields and multiples were announced [19][20]. - European and US bond yields generally rose [20]. 3.3.4 Foreign Exchange Market - The onshore RMB against the US dollar rose, and the US dollar index also increased slightly [21]. 3.3.5 Research Report Highlights - The issuance of panda bonds has increased significantly this year, providing more investment options, but most have no obvious premium [22]. - Credit bonds may face short - term fluctuations, but demand may be supported in April. It is advisable to buy on dips and moderately extend the duration [22][23]. - The new regulatory rating method for wealth management companies is beneficial to the industry, and the bank sector may be favored by low - risk - tolerance funds [23]. - There may be a liquidity gap of about 450 billion yuan in April, and the central bank is expected to use quantitative tools to address it [24]. - The market is currently trading inflation - induced liquidity tightening expectations. It is advisable to reduce positions and make strategic adjustments [24]. - It is recommended to participate in long - term bonds during adjustments, focus on short - term bonds, and pay attention to the narrowing of interest rate spreads [24]. - In the current environment, the bond supply has room to expand, and it is advisable to moderately extend the duration and diversify the portfolio [25][26]. 3.3.6 Today's Reminder - On March 25, 184 bonds will be listed, 218 bonds will be issued, 143 bonds will make payments, and 300 bonds will pay principal and interest [27]. 3.4 Stock Market Key News - A - shares rebounded strongly, with over 5100 stocks rising. Military stocks, green power, and other sectors led the gains, while the oil and gas sector pulled back [28].

农产品早报 2026-03-25 五矿期货农产品早报 五矿期货农产品团队 从业资格号：F03116327 交易咨询号：Z0019233 邮箱:yangzeyuan@wkqh.cn 王俊 组长、生鲜品研究员 （1）据海关数据显示，2026 年 1 月-2 月，我国分别进口食糖 28 万吨、24 万吨，较去年同期均增加 22 万吨，合计增加 44 万吨。（2）2 月全国累计产糖 926 万吨，同比减少 45.5 万吨，单月销糖 75 万吨， 同比减少 26.6 万吨，工业库存 581 万吨，同比增 84 万吨。（3）据印度糖业协会（ISMA）数据显示， 2025/26 榨季截至 3 月 15 日，印度累计产糖 2621 万吨，同比增加 249 万吨。（4）据泰国糖业协会（OCSB） 发布数据显示，2025/26 榨季截至 2026 年 3 月 15 日，泰国食糖产量已达 1027 万吨，同比增加 54.5 万吨。 （5）据国际糖业组织（ISO）2 月底预测，因印度和泰国产糖量低于预期，预计 2025/26 榨季全球食糖 产量预计为 1.8129 亿吨。 杨泽元 【策略观点】 软商品、油脂油料研究员 目前原糖价格持 ...