Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Budweiser APAC (01876.HK) with a target price of HKD 10 [1]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of USD 5.76 billion and normalized EBITDA of USD 1.59 billion for the year 2025, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 6.1% and 9.8% respectively. The normalized net profit attributable to shareholders was USD 670 million, down 14.4% year-on-year [1]. - The company plans to distribute a dividend of USD 750 million, maintaining a high payout ratio of 153.4% [1]. - The report highlights that the company is undergoing operational adjustments while maintaining a strong dividend policy, which is expected to attract investors [1]. Financial Summary - **Revenue and Profitability**: - Total revenue for 2025 was USD 5,764 million, with a projected growth of 2.7% in 2026 and 1.9% in both 2027 and 2028 [1]. - Normalized net profit is expected to recover to USD 533 million in 2026, with further growth to USD 563 million in 2027 and USD 580 million in 2028, after a decline of 32.6% in 2025 [1]. - **Earnings Per Share (EPS)**: - EPS is projected to remain stable at USD 0.04 from 2025 to 2028 [1]. - **Valuation Ratios**: - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is expected to decrease from 27 in 2025 to 23 by 2028, while the price-to-book (P/B) ratio is projected to decline from 1.3 to 1.1 over the same period [1]. Market Performance - The report notes that the company faced challenges in the Chinese market, with a year-on-year revenue decline of 11.4% in Q4 2025, primarily due to weak demand in core on-premise channels [5]. - In contrast, the Indian market showed strong growth, contributing over two-thirds of the revenue with a year-on-year growth of over 20% in the P&SP product segment [5]. - The report anticipates a recovery in the Chinese market in 2026, with ongoing efforts to enhance distribution channels and focus on premium products [5].

经济观察网 根据公开信息，百威英博（BUD.N）股价在2026年2月12日上涨3.81%至80.20美元，主要受 其前一交易日（2月12日）发布的2025年全年财报业绩驱动。 财报数据显示，公司2025年净利润为68.58亿美元，同比增长17.34%，增速显著高于2024年。尽管营业 收入同比微降0.27%，但有机增长达到2.0%，反映出公司高端化策略对盈利能力的提升作用。具体业务 方面，非啤酒业务销量占比扩大，无酒精啤酒收入增长超20%，数字化平台BEES全年GMV达490亿美 元，覆盖28个市场。 机构观点 此外，美国银行全球研究部于2月13日将百威英博目标股价从69欧元上调至80欧元，也体现了机构对其 业绩的认可。当日公司股票成交金额为4.54亿美元，换手率0.29%，显示出市场活跃度较高。 业绩经营情况 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that Budweiser Group is optimistic about the Chinese market, driven by its long-standing presence and confidence in its brand and products, as well as China's commitment to deepening opening-up and optimizing the business environment [2] - The company recognizes the evolving consumer behavior in China, where consumers are pursuing a better life with a pragmatic and positive attitude, creating opportunities for innovation and development [2] - Budweiser China is integrating global resources with local practices to expand beer consumption scenarios and cultural connotations, exemplified by partnerships with global IPs like FIFA World Cup and Tomorrowland [2] Group 2 - The Spring Festival is highlighted as a crucial opportunity for brands to connect deeply with consumers, and Budweiser launched a campaign themed "马上百威，马年有奔头" to resonate with the festive spirit [3] - The campaign incorporates themes of "wealth" and "health" into product design and utilizes digital interactions to convey sincere wishes during family reunions, enhancing consumer engagement [3] - Looking ahead, Budweiser China aims to deepen its strategic layout in China, focusing on localized innovation and high-quality growth to meet consumer demands with a diverse product portfolio [3]

Group 1 - The company has established a financial shared service center in 2024, focusing on centralized accounting and fund settlement processing [1] - Some units have already gone live on the shared platform, with the remaining units being implemented in an orderly manner [1]

Core Viewpoint - Budweiser is facing unprecedented growth pressure in the Chinese market, with declining sales and profits reported in its latest earnings report [1][2]. Financial Performance - Budweiser APAC reported a revenue of $5.764 billion (approximately 39.787 billion RMB) for 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 6.1% [1]. - Beer sales reached 7.966 billion liters, down 6.0% year-on-year [1]. - The profit attributable to equity holders was $489 million (approximately 3.375 billion RMB), a significant decline of 32.6%, marking a low point in net profit over recent years [1]. Market Challenges - The company has experienced a continuous decline in key metrics, with beer sales and revenue in China dropping by 8.6% and 11.3% respectively in 2025 [2]. - The decline is attributed to a slowdown in high-end dining and entertainment channels, which have traditionally been strong for Budweiser [2]. - The company has been slow to adapt to new retail and e-commerce channels, with a lower proportion of non-on-premise sales compared to competitors [2]. Strategic Initiatives - Budweiser is increasing investments in non-on-premise channels and enhancing its sales team capabilities, particularly in Guangdong [2]. - The company is also focusing on marketing its core sub-brands, including new endorsements for Harbin Beer to strengthen connections with younger consumers [2]. Cost Pressures - Increased investments to support distributors and brand promotion in emerging channels have created additional profit pressures for Budweiser [3]. - The company plans to maintain high-intensity marketing and channel investments in 2026, coinciding with the World Cup events [3]. Industry Context - The domestic beer industry is entering a contraction phase, with local brands accelerating their premiumization and channel transformation, increasing pressure on international giants like Budweiser [3][4]. - Competitors such as Yanjing Beer and Chongqing Beer are forecasting significant profit growth, with Yanjing expected to achieve a net profit of 1.584 billion to 1.742 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 50%-65% [3][4]. Leadership Focus - CEO Cheng Yanjun has emphasized the need to reignite growth and rebuild market share in China as a primary task [4].

大华继显发布研报称，百威亚太(01876)2025年第四季收入录10.73亿美元，同比下跌4%，主要因销量及 平均售价分别跌0.7%及4%。正常化EBITDA为1.67亿美元，同比下跌25%，相应利润率为15.6%，同比 收窄425个基点。中国市场方面，2025年第四季有改善迹象，销量及市场占有率回稳。展望2026年，公 司目标重拾增长动力，商业投资占净收入的比例有上行空间，而利润率改善则预期是长期目标。该行维 持"买入"评级及目标价9.9港元。 ...

智通财经APP获悉，大华继显发布研报称，百威亚太(01876)2025年第四季收入录10.73亿美元，同比下 跌4%，主要因销量及平均售价分别跌0.7%及4%。正常化EBITDA为1.67亿美元，同比下跌25%，相应利 润率为15.6%，同比收窄425个基点。中国市场方面，2025年第四季有改善迹象，销量及市场占有率回 稳。展望2026年，公司目标重拾增长动力，商业投资占净收入的比例有上行空间，而利润率改善则预期 是长期目标。该行维持"买入"评级及目标价9.9港元。 ...

食品饮料行业 超配（维持） 食品饮料行业双周报（2026/01/30-2026/02/12） 预制菜国标公开征求意见，关注春节需求表现 2026 年 02 月 13 日 投资要点： ◼ 风险提示：原材料价格波动、产品提价不及预期、渠道开展不及预期、 行业竞争加剧、食品安全风险、宏观经济波动风险等。 本报告的风险等级为中风险。 本报告的信息均来自已公开信息，关于信息的准确性与完整性，建议投资者谨慎判断，据此入市，风险自担。 请务必阅读末页声明。 行 业 周 报 分析师：黄冬祎 SAC 执业证书编号： S0340523020001 电话：0769-22119410 邮箱： huangdongyi@dgzq.com.cn ◼ 行情回顾：1月30日-2月12日，SW食品饮料行业指数整体下跌0.95%，板 块涨幅位居申万一级行业第二十四位，跑输同期沪深300指数约0.23个 百分点。细分板块中，多数细分板块跑输沪深300指数。其中，调味品板 块上涨0.64%，板块涨幅最大；其他酒类板块跌幅最大，为6.40%。 ◼ 行业周观点：预制菜国标公开征求意见，关注春节需求表现。白酒板块： 受房地产政策、飞天动销、市场风格切换等因 ...

Group 1: Financial Performance - 2025 Q4 organic revenue decreased by 4% year-on-year, with total revenue down 6% to $1.1 billion, 2% lower than market consensus[5] - Standardized EBITDA fell by 26.8% to $167 million, with an organic decline of 24.7%[6] - Net loss attributable to shareholders was $105 million, worse than the expected loss of $30 million due to higher tax expenses[12] Group 2: Regional Insights - Revenue in China declined by 11.4%, with sales down 3.9% and revenue per hectoliter decreasing by 7.7%[12] - South Korea's revenue remained flat, with low single-digit sales decline, benefiting from a strong brand mix[12] - India experienced double-digit revenue growth driven by premium product offerings, enhancing overall market share[12] Group 3: Market Trends and Risks - Economic recovery, product upgrades, and favorable summer weather are expected to boost beer sales[7] - Risks include slower-than-expected premiumization, loss of market share in the high-end segment, and unexpected cost inflation[8] - The company maintains a dividend payout of $750 million, with a payout ratio of 153% and a dividend yield of 5.3%[12]

Group 1 - Heineken N.V. announced a significant layoff plan, intending to cut 5,000 to 6,000 jobs globally, which represents approximately 5.6%-6.7% of its total workforce of about 89,000 employees [2] - The layoffs are part of a structural adjustment aimed at advancing the "EverGreen 2030" strategy, with a core goal of saving €400-500 million annually by 2030 [2] - Heineken has lowered its organic operating profit growth forecast for 2026 from 4%-8% to 2%-6% due to weak performance in 2025 [2] Group 2 - In 2025, Heineken reported a net revenue of €28.753 billion, a decline of 3.6%, and a net profit of €1.885 billion, marking a 92.7% increase due to prior year comparisons [3] - The company's total revenue decreased by 4.7% to €34.257 billion, while global sales volume fell by 1.2% [3] - Heineken is implementing several initiatives, including consolidating 3,000 positions into the HBS department, optimizing the supply chain, advancing brewery digital upgrades, and closing inefficient production capacity [4]