上海财经大学商学院讲席教授、中国式现代化研究院首席专家鲍晓华在接受上海证券报记者采访时表 示，前11个月我国外贸总体仍延续"稳中有进、结构优化"的态势。未来的外贸发展短期虽有压力，但从 中长期看，我国制造业体系完备、市场空间广阔，只要政策保持连续性、针对性，我国外贸完全有条件 保持在合理区间运行。 从出口结构看，高技术、高附加值产品出口增长亮点突出。前11个月，我国出口机电产品14.89万亿 元，同比增长8.8%，占出口比重超六成。其中，集成电路1.29万亿元，同比增长25.6%；汽车8969.1亿 元，同比增长17.6%。"这体现出我国产业链、供应链体系的综合竞争优势持续增强。"鲍晓华分析称， 相比之下，传统劳密产品出口有所回落，出口结构"由量向质"升级特征更加清晰。 从外贸主体看，民营企业占比持续提升。海关总署新闻发言人、统计分析司司长吕大良介绍，今年以 来，民营企业主动识变、灵活应变，外贸活力持续释放。前11个月，民营企业进出口23.52万亿元，同 比增长7.1%，占外贸总值的57.1%，比去年同期提升1.8个百分点，有进出口记录的民营企业数量同比增 加6.6万家。11月民营企业进出口增速比上月加快3. ...

Export Performance - In November 2025, total exports reached $330.4 billion, a year-on-year increase of 5.9%, exceeding market expectations of 3.0% and reversing the previous month's decline of -1.1%[1] - Exports to the EU, Africa, and Latin America improved significantly, contributing 1.9 percentage points, 1.5 percentage points, and 1.0 percentage points to overall export growth, respectively[1] - Exports to ASEAN, China's largest trading partner, saw a marginal slowdown, with year-on-year growth decreasing by 1.9 percentage points to 8.6%, marking the first single-digit growth since February of the same year[1] Trade with the United States - Exports to the U.S. fell by 3.2% month-on-month in November, with a year-on-year decline of 28.8%, the lowest in three months, remaining within the -25% to -30% range[2] - The decline in exports to the U.S. was influenced by high base effects from last year, where exports peaked at $47.3 billion in November 2024 due to anticipatory stockpiling ahead of tariff increases[2] Product Categories - The export growth rate for electromechanical products and high-tech products improved, with electromechanical exports rising by 9.8% and high-tech products by 7.8%, both nearing the average levels seen in the first nine months of the year[3] - Labor-intensive product exports saw a reduced decline from -14.8% to -8.2%, although this remains low compared to the average decline of around 5% in August and September[3] Import Trends - Total imports in November amounted to $218.7 billion, with a year-on-year increase of 1.9%, slightly above the previous month's 1.0%[4] - Imports of electromechanical and high-tech products improved, contributing 5.5 percentage points to overall import growth, while bulk commodity imports turned negative, declining by 1.0% year-on-year[5] Regional Economic Performance - Neighboring economies also showed strong export performance, with South Korea's exports rising by 8.4% year-on-year in November, up from 3.6% in October[6] - Vietnam's exports experienced a slight slowdown to 15.8% year-on-year but maintained double-digit growth[6] Future Outlook - Despite high base effects, November's export performance is expected to support a rebound in industrial value-added growth year-on-year[7] - The resilience of exports is anticipated to continue, bolstered by competitive pricing of manufactured goods, although fluctuations may occur in the coming months due to previous stockpiling effects[7]

记者丨张旭 编辑丨周上祺 东盟稳居第一大贸易伙伴 海关总署数据显示，我国前三大贸易伙伴分别为东盟、欧盟、美国。同期，我国对共建"一带一路"国家 合计进出口21.33万亿元，增长6%。 具体来看，今年前11个月，我国与东盟贸易总值6.82万亿元，增长8.5%，占我国外贸总值的16.6%；我 国与欧盟贸易总值5.37万亿元，增长5.4%，占我国外贸总值的13%；我国与美国贸易总值3.69万亿元， 下降16.9%，占我外贸总值的8.9%。 近年来，我国与东盟的贸易合作不断深化。中国与东盟自2002年开启自贸区建设进程，2010年自贸区 1.0版全面建成。自贸区建立后，双方对超过90%的产品实行零关税。中国对东盟平均关税从9.8%降到 0.1%，东盟六个老成员国对中国的平均关税从12.8%降到0.6%。 10月28日，中国-东盟自贸区3.0版升级议定书在马来西亚吉隆坡签署。3.0版升级议定书涵盖数字经济、 绿色经济、供应链互联互通等9方面内容。 广西壮族自治区东南亚经济与政治研究院信息中心主任丁裕森向21世纪经济报道记者表示，8.5%的增 速不仅表明东盟已成为我国外贸增长的核心引擎，更体现了国家外贸结构的深层次优化。 ...

Core Viewpoint - China's goods trade showed resilience in November, with a total import and export value of 3.9 trillion yuan, reflecting a growth of 4.1% year-on-year, driven by strong exports to the EU and Belt and Road Initiative countries [1][3]. Group 1: Trade Data Overview - In the first eleven months of 2025, China's total goods trade value reached 41.21 trillion yuan, up 3.6% year-on-year, with exports at 24.46 trillion yuan (6.2% growth) and imports at 16.75 trillion yuan (0.2% growth) [1]. - In November alone, exports were 2.35 trillion yuan (5.7% growth) and imports were 1.55 trillion yuan (1.7% growth) [1]. Group 2: Trade Partners - ASEAN remains China's largest trading partner, with trade totaling 6.82 trillion yuan (8.5% growth), accounting for 16.6% of China's total foreign trade [3][5]. - Trade with the EU reached 5.37 trillion yuan (5.4% growth), making up 13% of total foreign trade, while trade with the US fell to 3.69 trillion yuan (16.9% decline), representing 8.9% of total foreign trade [3]. Group 3: Trade Structure and Product Categories - The trade structure is optimizing, with mechanical and electrical products dominating exports, totaling 14.89 trillion yuan (8.8% growth), making up 60.9% of total exports [7]. - Exports of labor-intensive products decreased to 3.7 trillion yuan (3.5% decline), now accounting for 15.1% of total exports [7]. Group 4: Future Outlook and Policy Measures - The outlook for foreign trade in 2026 indicates both opportunities and challenges, with expectations of controlled downward pressure on exports and stable employment in the foreign trade sector [10]. - Proposed measures to support foreign trade include enhancing domestic consumption, providing targeted financial support to export enterprises, and diversifying markets through new trade agreements [10][11].

期货研究院 格林大华期货研究院专题报告 宏观经济 2025年12月8日 证监许可【2011】1288号 11月份，中国出口机电产品2059亿美元，同比增长9.7%，1-11 月累计同比增长8.0%，去年全年增长7.5%。1-11月高新技术产品出 口同比增长6.6%，去年全年增长4.8%。1-11月集成电路出口同比增 长24.7%，去年全年增长17.4%。前11个月出口汽车（包括底盘）同 比增长16.7%，去年全年增长15.5%。前11个月出口船舶同比增长26. 8%，去年全年增长57.3%。前11个月出口家电同比下降3.6%，去年 全年增长14.1%。前11个月出口手机同比下降11.2%，去年全年下降 3.1%。前11个月出口箱包及类似容器同比下降13.5%，去年全年下降 3.2%。前11个月出口玩具同比下降12.1%，去年全年下降1.7%。前1 1个月出口服装及衣着附件同比下降4.4%，去年全年增长0.3%。前1 1个月出口家具及零件同比下降5.9%，去年全年增长5.8%。今年中国 出口更高科技含量产品和传统优势出口产品的增长速度明显分化。 11月位于中国进口金额前列的还是集成电路和大宗商品。11月中 国进 ...

Export Performance - In November, China's exports reached $330.35 billion, with a year-on-year growth rate of 5.9%, recovering from a previous decline of -1.1%[5] - The ten-year average year-on-year export growth rate for November is 2.8%[5] - The increase in exports is supported by global economic recovery and market diversification, alongside a low base effect from last year[6] Import Trends - Imports in November totaled $218.67 billion, with a growth rate of 1.9%, slightly up from 1% previously[5] - The ten-year average year-on-year import growth rate for November is 0%[7] - Industrial production recovery and increased demand for certain commodities, such as grains (15.4% growth) and rubber (11.3% growth), supported import growth[7] Trade Surplus - The trade surplus for November was $111.68 billion, an increase from $90.07 billion in the previous month[5] Regional Export Dynamics - Exports to the EU increased by 14.8%, significantly up from 0.9% previously, likely due to pre-Christmas shipping demands[15] - Exports to the US saw a larger decline, with a year-on-year growth rate of -28.6%, worsening from -25.2%[15] - Exports to Africa rebounded to 27.6%, contributing 1.4 percentage points to overall export growth[16] Product-Specific Insights - The export growth rate for mechanical and high-tech products improved, with automotive exports increasing by 53% and integrated circuits by 34.2%[22] - Labor-intensive products showed varying recovery, with a notable improvement in toys and textiles[24] Future Outlook - Cumulative export growth from January to November was 5.4%, with a projected annual growth rate of 5.8% for 2024[26] - The export growth outlook remains resilient despite uncertainties in US-China relations and global economic conditions[26] Risks - Potential risks include weakening external demand, domestic economic downturns, and escalating trade tensions[33]

非洲国家在买什么？非洲发展潜力与工业短板之间的供需矛盾，导致基础设施建设、能源开发等领域高 度依赖技术和设备进口，这使得中国成为非洲工业化进程中不可或缺的"技术载体"。自"一带一路"倡议 提出以来，中国对非投资深化，既改善非洲硬件条件，也推动中国机电产品通过本地化配套融入非洲产 业链，在非市场的影响力与竞争力显著增强。 炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 来源：川阅全球宏观 贸易摩擦的反复冲击下，今年出口的超预期韧性着实令市场惊喜。11月出口更是超预期回升，脱离负增 长区间，其中非洲无疑是最主要的边际变量之一（单月非洲出口同比上升至27.6%，拉动近1.5个百分 点，一度超越东盟等其他经济体）。今年以来，我国对非洲出口可谓是"一枝独秀"，不仅出口增速显著 高于东盟、欧盟等主要贸易伙伴，同时非洲对我国出口的拉动也从去年微不足道的0.2%大幅上升至 1.3%，贡献了今年约四分之一的总出口增速。在美国关税"围堵"、全球贸易格局重构的背景下，非洲市 场正加速成为我国出口"突围"新的增长点。 那么，对非出口火爆的背后有何玄机，是短期扰动还是趋势？非洲市场还有多少潜力和空间？我们将在 ...

Core Insights - The General Administration of Customs reported that in the first 11 months, China's export of electromechanical products reached 14.89 trillion yuan, an increase of 8.8%, accounting for 60.9% of total exports [1] Group 1: Electromechanical Products - Exports of automatic data processing equipment and its components totaled 1.31 trillion yuan, a decrease of 1.3% [1] - Exports of integrated circuits reached 1.29 trillion yuan, showing a significant growth of 25.6% [1] - Exports of automobiles amounted to 896.91 billion yuan, reflecting a growth of 17.6% [1] Group 2: Labor-Intensive Products - Exports of labor-intensive products were 3.7 trillion yuan, a decline of 3.5%, making up 15.1% of total exports [1] - Exports of clothing and accessories were 987.26 billion yuan, down by 3.7% [1] - Exports of textiles reached 931.33 billion yuan, with a growth of 1.7% [1] - Exports of plastic products totaled 677.6 billion yuan, showing a slight decrease of 0.5% [1] Group 3: Agricultural Products - Exports of agricultural products reached 670.21 billion yuan, marking a growth of 2% [1]

今年10月28日，中国与东盟成功签署中国—东盟自贸区3.0版升级议定书，这一重大举措将为区域经贸 合作注入强劲动力，更为机电产业国际贸易合作开辟全新空间、注入持续增长动力。 中国—东盟自贸区自生效以来，东盟市场始终是中国机电产品出口的重要增长极。据我国海关统计，中 国机电产品对东盟出口额从2010年的738亿美元升至2024年的3101亿美元，年均增幅达10%，显著高于 同期机电产品出口总体5.67%的增幅，在机电行业出口总值中的占比也从7.94%提升至14.59%。 此外，3.0版议定书单章专门聚焦数字经济，提出营造开放包容、公平公正的数字经济发展环境，在无 纸贸易、电子认证、跨境信息传输、人工智能等领域作出明确安排，这对于中国和东盟正处于智能化、 数字化转型的机电产业而言，意味着更大的发展空间。3.0版议定书保障数据跨境传输、认可电子认证 等内容，将有效降低企业合规成本，助力企业通过跨境数字化服务提升产品附加值，摆脱传统低价竞争 模式，向高附加值领域拓展。同时，"单一窗口"的推进和通关流程的优化，将使工业机器人、智能机电 组件、智能家居等高新技术机电产品更加快捷高效地响应东盟市场需求，加速技术成果转化和市 ...

Core Viewpoint - A historic shift is occurring in Zhejiang, where ASEAN has surpassed the EU to become the province's largest trading partner for the first time in history, reflecting significant changes in trade dynamics and economic relationships [1][4][13]. Trade Dynamics - From January to October this year, Zhejiang's total import and export value with ASEAN reached 710.61 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 16.2%, while trade with the EU totaled 702.94 billion yuan, with a growth rate of only 7.5% [4][6]. - The overall import and export value of Zhejiang for the same period was 4.60 trillion yuan, growing by 5.3%, which is 1.7 percentage points higher than the national average [4][12]. Factors Driving Change - The shift in trade partnerships is attributed to multiple factors, including the accelerated restructuring of global supply chains and the ongoing benefits from the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) [4][8]. - ASEAN's role as a significant manufacturing base and consumer market complements Zhejiang's industries, particularly in emerging sectors like digital economy and green energy [4][12]. Export Growth Areas - Exports of electric passenger vehicles from Zhejiang to ASEAN surged by 195%, and lithium-ion batteries increased by 67.2% from January to October [6][10]. - The trade has evolved from primarily labor-intensive products to include high-tech products such as machinery and electric vehicles, indicating a shift towards more sophisticated exports [10][12]. Import Trends - Zhejiang's imports from ASEAN are diversifying beyond raw materials to include high-quality agricultural products and industrial goods [11][12]. Role of Private Enterprises - The transition to ASEAN as the largest trading partner is significantly driven by Zhejiang's robust private enterprise sector, which comprises 112,000 foreign trade companies, with private enterprises accounting for 82% of the province's total import and export value [12][13]. - Private enterprises in Zhejiang have shown a 9.4% growth rate in exports, contributing 96.6% to the overall export growth [12].