受美股科技股集体下挫影响，港股三大指数今日低开，恒生指数盘中曾转涨，午间收跌0.44%，国企指 数、恒生科技指数分别下跌0.6%及1.26%。作为风向标的大型科技股集体弱势拖累市场情绪，其中，小 米跌超3%；纸业股、锂电池股、苹果概念股、汽车股、内房股普遍走低。另外，航空股再度强势拉 升，三大航空股领衔上涨，煤炭股、军工股部分活跃。(格隆汇) ...

美股11月非农就业人数高于预期，隔夜美股涨跌不一，中概指数跌0.34%。连续下跌的港股三大指数高 开，恒指涨0.03%，国指涨0.12%，恒生科技指数涨0.09%。大型科技股普遍高开飘红，锂电池股、新消 费概念股，黄金股、电子消费概念股普涨，隔夜美股特斯拉创新高，特斯拉概念股齐涨。另外，国际油 价走低，石油股下跌。(格隆汇) （原标题：港股早评：三大指数小幅高开，科技股普遍反弹，油价走低石油股下跌） ...

Market Overview - The US stock market continues to experience volatility, with a downward trend observed on December 16, despite better-than-expected employment data for November [1][2] - The November non-farm payrolls increased by 64,000, contrasting with a decrease of 105,000 in October, while the unemployment rate rose to 4.6%, the highest since 2021 [2] - Technology stocks generally declined during this period [2] Oil Market Dynamics - WTI crude oil futures fell below $55 per barrel for the first time since February 2021, with intraday losses exceeding 3% [4] - The oil market is facing its worst performance in nearly seven years, with WTI crude down approximately 22% year-to-date, marking the worst annual performance since 2018 [6] - Brent crude has also seen a decline of nearly 20%, the worst since 2020 [6] - Key factors contributing to the pressure on oil prices include OPEC+ members increasing production after years of cuts and the potential for reduced geopolitical risks, particularly regarding a peace agreement between Ukraine and Russia [7]

Group 1 - The Bank of Japan's monetary normalization is anticipated as a black swan event, with a 94% probability of a 25 basis point rate hike, marking a significant shift for the yen [2] - Japan's core CPI has remained above the central bank's 2% target for 28 consecutive months, indicating a departure from deflation [5] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) shows an upward trend, suggesting inflation is now driven by wage demands rather than just rising oil prices [6] Group 2 - The average wage increase in Japan reached 5.46%, the highest in 34 years, indicating a shift in consumer purchasing power and a potential for a positive economic cycle [9][10] - Japan's output gap has been positive for three consecutive quarters, reflecting a rare situation where demand exceeds supply [12] - The long-standing low-interest environment is mismatched with the emerging high-demand society, leading to potential economic adjustments [13] Group 3 - Japan's government debt exceeds 1,333 trillion yen, with interest payments consuming 22.4% of the budget, raising concerns about the impact of rate hikes on fiscal sustainability [19] - The anticipated 25 basis point increase could add 3.3 trillion yen to annual interest expenses, highlighting the significant cost of normalization [20] - The slow pace of rate hikes reflects the need to test market tolerance amid rising inflation and debt concerns [21] Group 4 - The potential for a significant asset reallocation globally as Japan raises rates, with implications for U.S. Treasuries and emerging markets [40][44] - Japanese investors are the largest foreign holders of U.S. debt, and a shift in interest rates could accelerate the trend of selling U.S. bonds [44] - Emerging markets could face severe consequences from capital outflows, reminiscent of past financial crises [49][51] Group 5 - For Japanese banks, a rate hike is beneficial, potentially increasing net profits significantly due to improved net interest margins [56] - However, the real estate market, which has relied on low mortgage rates, may face challenges as borrowing costs rise [58] - Small and medium-sized enterprises may struggle with increased financing costs, leading to higher bankruptcy rates and economic "cleansing" [61]

接下来A股怎么走？ 眼下对沪指来说，重点是3800点的支撑，最好的方式是在这个位置之下形成空头陷阱，这样市场整体的强势就保住了，如果说3800点成了多空分水岭，那就 要有风险防范意识了，我说这话大家好好想想。 实际上创业板现在看还处在高位，3000点则是多空力量的关键点，以不跌破3000点为强势，否则的话就要另当别论了。 以我的看法，3800点之下市场应该会形成明显的支撑，至于这种想法是否现实，那就要看下一步消息面的变化了，以及美股那边涨跌情况而定。 这种情形下，再看看A股的走势，低开之后直线下挫，沪指在一个多小时就下跌了1.31%，盘中最低到了3815点，上次的低点也被打破了，尤其是创业板指 数盘中一度重挫了2.5%，像这么弱的单日走势，在近期其实并不多见，所以说今天市场有点出乎意料。 其一，我觉得主要还是美股科技股的影响，舆论对部分美股大型科技股的AI泡沫呼声很高，如此美股已经连续调整两天了，当前不只是美股在高位，A股的 科技股虽然说出现了阶段性震荡，不过从绝对的位置看，这波其实没有调整多少，还是存在大量的获利盘，这种情形下，只要美股那边稍微有点风吹草动， A股这边往往就会成为惊弓之鸟。 今天A股科技龙头 ...

Market Overview - The geopolitical tensions have led to a decline in the Asia-Pacific stock markets, with Hong Kong's three major indices falling significantly. The Hang Seng Index dropped nearly 400 points to 25,235, marking a recent low, while the Hang Seng Tech Index fell by 1.74% to 5,402.51 [1][2] Sector Performance - Large technology stocks continued to decline, negatively impacting market sentiment. Notable declines included SenseTime down over 6%, Tencent Music down over 3%, and Alibaba, NetEase, Bilibili, and JD.com each down over 2% [4][5] - Financial stocks, including banks, insurance, and brokerage firms, also performed poorly, contributing to the overall market pressure [2] - Gold and precious metal stocks experienced significant drops, with companies like Jihai Resources down over 7% and others like Long Resources and Zijin Mining down over 6% [6] - Semiconductor stocks faced widespread declines, with Tianyu Semiconductor down over 4% and ZTE, Chipone, and others down over 3% [7][8] - Cryptocurrency-related stocks weakened, with Blue Ocean Interactive down over 8% and Huaxing Capital down over 4% [9] Individual Stock Movements - Guoxia Technology, in its debut, surged nearly 118% to close at 43.8 HKD, achieving a market capitalization of 22.42 billion HKD. The stock was heavily oversubscribed, with a public offering receiving 1,890.73 times subscription [13][14] - Insurance stocks also saw declines, with China Life down over 4% and China Pacific Insurance down over 2% [10][11] - Conversely, airline stocks rose against the trend, with China Eastern Airlines, Air China, and China Southern Airlines each gaining over 1% [12] Capital Flow and Market Sentiment - Southbound funds recorded a net buy of 81.92 million HKD, with the Hong Kong Stock Connect (Shanghai) showing a net sell of 1.106 billion HKD, while the Hong Kong Stock Connect (Shenzhen) had a net buy of 1.188 billion HKD [17] - Recent reports indicate that the weakness in Hong Kong stocks is attributed to the return of southbound funds to A-shares due to new public fund regulations, concerns over IPO financing, and upcoming unlocks [19] - Looking ahead, there is potential for a year-end rally in Hong Kong stocks as the pressure from southbound fund returns and IPO supply eases, alongside profit recovery and overseas liquidity release [20]

港A股也遭受冲击。恒指、恒科指、国指午后跌幅进一步扩大，现跌幅均跌超2%。大型科技股、金融股悉数飘绿。 沪指、创业板指、深证成指纷纷跌超1%；富时中国A50指数期货跌幅也扩大至1.3%。 | 亚太市场 | | 更新于:12-16 14:01 | | --- | --- | --- | | 日经225 | 韩国综合 | 新加坡海峡 | | 49477.67 | 4013.35 | 4582.82 | | -690.44 -1.38% | -77.24 -1.89% | -6.35 -0.14% | | 澳洲标普200 | 印度 | MSCI台湾 | | 8598.90 | 84755.69 | 1077.86 | | -48.40 -0.56% -457.67 -0.54% -17.11 -1.56% | | | | 上证指数 | 深证成指 | 恒生指数 | | 3825.34 | 12929.97 | 25159.96 | | -42.58 -1.10% -182.12 -1.39% -468.92 -1.83% | | | 两大关键搅动市场风云：AI交易、美联储 "AI交易"重挫之下，美股隔夜跳水，亚太市场 ...

周二，亚太资产全线重挫，日韩股市连续走低。 截至发稿，韩国综合指数尾盘跌1.89%；日经225指数跌1.38%，再度跌破5万点；日本东证指数跌1.3% MSCI亚洲新兴市场跌1.69%，台湾加权指数跌幅扩大超1%。 港A股也遭受冲击。恒指、恒科指、国指午后跌幅进一步扩大，现跌幅均跌超2%。大型科技股、金融股悉数飘绿。 沪指、创业板指、深证成指纷纷跌超1%；富时中国A50指数期货跌幅也扩大至1.3%。 | ALADA | | 更新干:12-16 14:01 | | --- | --- | --- | | 日经225 | 韩国综合 | 新加坡海峡 | | 49477.67 | 4013.35 | 4582.82 | | -690.44 -1.38% | -77.24 -1.89% | -6.35 -0.14% | | 澳洲标普200 | 印度 | MSCI台湾 | | 8598.90 | 84755.69 | 1077.86 | | -48.40 -0.56% | -457.67 -0.54% -17.11 -1.56% | | | 上证指数 | 深证成指 | 恒生指数 | | 3825.34 | 12929.9 ...

上周，美联储降息并启动购买短期美债，投资者谨慎看待AI行业高估值前景的同时，看好降息对实体经济的提振作用， 资金多日从高估值的科技股流出，流向对利率波动敏感的金融、工业等周期股，板块轮动使得美国三大股指上周走势分 化。从全周来看，道指累计上涨超1%，标普500指数下跌约0.6%，纳指下跌超1.6%。 上周国际金价与银价均上涨 原油期货方面，投资者上周主要聚焦俄乌谈判进展，部分投资者看好俄乌达成和平协议的前景，因而陆续减仓，以应对 俄罗斯石油重返国际市场的可能，国际油价上周显著下跌。从全周来看，纽约原油期货主力合约价格下跌4.39%，布伦 特原油期货主力合约价格下跌4.13%。 本周英国央行与欧洲央行将公布最新利率决议 本周，全球多个发达经济体的央行将陆续公布最新利率决议，其中，英国央行与欧洲央行的货币政策最受关注。 英国方面，由于经济增长的疲软态势比预期更为糟糕，尤其是服务业和建筑业近期都表现不佳，外界普遍预计，英国央 行会在本周宣布降息25个基点来刺激经济，有分析指出这很可能是英国央行本轮宽松货币政策周期中的最后一次降息。 欧元区方面，由于服务业通胀持续高于欧洲央行目标，交易员普遍预计欧洲央行本周将"按兵不 ...

RGA Investments 首席投资官 Rick Gardner 认为，投资者是否会继续接受大型科技股和人工智能股票的高估值是 2026 年的"一个大问题"。他指出，虽然该技 术展现了"巨大的前景"，但许多股票的估值"交易得好像所有人工智能生产力都已在当前实现一样"。 七大科技巨头的收盘涨跌不一，其中英伟达公司(NVDA.US)、Meta (META.US)和特斯拉(TSLA.US)上涨。七大科技巨头的指数上涨了 0.1%。 智通财经APP注意到，美国股市周一收跌，原因是科技股抛售仍在继续，且交易员正为即将发布的大量经济数据做准备。 标准普尔 500 指数在纽约收盘时下跌 0.2%，抹去早盘涨幅，连续第二个交易日录得下跌。以科技股为主的纳斯达克 100 指数下跌 0.5%，使得该基准指数连 续第三个交易日下跌。 IG 首席市场分析师 Chris Beauchamp 表示："早盘的积极情绪已经消散，上周五的抛售延续到了本周一的美国交易时段。" 他说："在经历自 4 月以来如此强 劲的复苏之后，许多投资者获利了结的诱惑一定非常强烈，尤其是本周日程表上还有大量宏观事件。" 上周科技股表现不佳，原因是对人工智能的 ...