Group 1 - The core concern is the potential normalization of Japan's bond yields, which could pose a significant threat to U.S. tech stock valuations, especially if real yields rise substantially by 2025 [1][3] - BCA Research highlights that from 2019 to 2022, U.S. tech stock valuations were perfectly synchronized with U.S. real bond yields, but by the end of 2022, they began to correlate with Japanese government bonds, which are the last to have negative real yields [4][6] - The high valuations of U.S. tech stocks are not solely based on domestic liquidity but also rely on the low-cost funding environment provided by Japan [6][7] Group 2 - Current changes in Japan's domestic economy, with long-term inflation expectations nearing the 2% target, indicate that the pressure for normalization of the Bank of Japan's monetary policy will gradually increase [6] - BCA warns that if Japan's real bond yields normalize, the global liquidity environment will tighten, directly impacting tech stocks that depend on low-cost funding [7]

Market Performance - The three major US stock indices rose collectively, with the Nasdaq Composite and S&P 500 reaching new historical highs [1][2] - As of the close on July 10, the Dow Jones increased by 0.43% to 44,650.64 points, the S&P 500 rose by 0.27% to 6,280.46 points, and the Nasdaq gained 0.09% to 20,630.66 points [2] Company Highlights - Nvidia's stock price increased by 0.75%, marking its market capitalization surpassing $4 trillion, making it the first company to reach this milestone [2] - Tesla's stock rose by 4.73% following CEO Elon Musk's announcement of plans to expand its Robotaxi service in the San Francisco Bay Area [2] - Other major tech stocks showed mixed performance, with Apple up 0.6%, Google up 0.59%, while Microsoft, Meta, and Netflix saw declines [2] Analyst Outlook - Goldman Sachs raised its year-end target for the S&P 500 from 6,100 to 6,600 points, indicating a positive outlook for the US stock market [3] - JPMorgan reported that potential capital inflows into the US stock market could reach $500 billion in the second half of the year, potentially driving a 5% to 10% increase in the S&P 500 by year-end [3] Federal Reserve Commentary - President Trump urged Federal Reserve Chairman Powell to take swift action to lower interest rates, criticizing the current rate policy as being too high [3][4] - There is internal division within the Federal Reserve regarding the timing of potential rate cuts, with some officials advocating for a cut later in the year while others call for more data before making a decision [4] Labor Market Data - Initial jobless claims in the US fell to 227,000, below the expected 235,000, marking the lowest level in two months [4] - The number of continuing claims rose to 1.97 million, the highest since the end of 2021, indicating challenges for unemployed individuals in finding new jobs [4] - Overall, the labor market data suggests stronger-than-expected conditions, which may reduce expectations for a rate cut by the Federal Reserve [5]

Core Viewpoint - Bitcoin price surged to a historical high of $112,052.24, driven by a strong rebound in technology stocks led by Nvidia, with a closing price around $110,947.49 [1][2] Group 1: Bitcoin Market Dynamics - Bitcoin's price is closely tied to overall market sentiment, often rising when investors show increased risk appetite and invest in growth assets [2] - In Q2, the number of companies purchasing Bitcoin exceeded the net inflow of Bitcoin ETFs, indicating strong institutional interest [1] - Despite a narrow trading range in recent weeks, Bitcoin's cumulative increase over the past month was approximately 2% [1] Group 2: Future Outlook - There is widespread expectation that Bitcoin will continue to reach new highs in the second half of 2024, as more companies incorporate Bitcoin into their financial reserves and U.S. Congress moves closer to passing cryptocurrency regulatory legislation [2] - The upcoming "Cryptocurrency Week" in Washington and a generally optimistic market sentiment could push Bitcoin prices to $120,000 or higher [2] - The current open interest in call options significantly exceeds that of put options, suggesting a bullish sentiment among traders [2]

Market Performance - On July 9, US stock indices collectively rose, with the Nasdaq index increasing by 0.94% to set a new historical record, the Dow Jones up by 0.49%, and the S&P 500 rising by 0.61% [1] - The market exhibited a strong performance in technology stocks while Chinese concept stocks faced pressure [1] Technology Sector - Technology stocks led the market rally, with the US Technology Seven Giants Index rising by 1.25%. Nvidia's stock price increased by 1.8%, briefly surpassing a market capitalization of $4 trillion, making it the first company to reach this milestone [2] - Nvidia's strong performance indicates renewed investor interest in the artificial intelligence (AI) theme, with other tech giants like Microsoft, Amazon, Alphabet, and Meta also recording gains [2] Chinese Concept Stocks - Most Chinese concept stocks declined, with the Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index falling by 1.11% and the Wind Chinese Technology Leaders Index down by 1.75%. Notable declines included Alibaba down by 3.84%, JD Group down by 3.36%, and Meituan down by 2.84% [3][4] - However, some Chinese concept stocks rose against the trend, such as Futu Holdings up over 9%, Legend Biotech up over 5%, and BeiGene up over 4% [3] Federal Reserve Insights - The Federal Reserve's minutes from the June 17-18 meeting indicated that most officials support the possibility of interest rate cuts this year, citing stable long-term inflation expectations and a robust labor market [5] - The committee members believe the current monetary policy is moderately restrictive, allowing them to wait for clearer information regarding inflation and economic activity [5] Tariff Developments - President Trump announced new tariffs on products from several countries, with rates reaching as high as 50% for Brazil, effective from August 1, 2025 [6][7] - Despite concerns over these tariffs, market analysts suggest that the market has largely ignored these threats, indicating a preference for risk [7] AI Developments - Google announced the launch of its AI assistant, Gemini, on Wear OS smartwatches, enhancing its competitive position in the AI sector [8]

Market Overview - The three major U.S. stock indices closed mixed, with the Dow Jones down 0.37% at 44240.76 points, the S&P 500 down 0.07% at 6225.52 points, and the Nasdaq up 0.03% at 20418.46 points [2][3] - European stock markets collectively rose, with the Euro Stoxx 50 index up 0.67%, the DAX 30 up 0.76%, the FTSE 100 up 0.56%, and the CAC 40 up 0.56% [2] Nvidia Performance - Nvidia's stock price increased by 1.11% to $160 per share, reaching a historical high, with a total market capitalization exceeding $3.9 trillion [6] Copper Tariff Announcement - President Trump announced a potential 50% tariff on imported copper, leading to a significant increase in copper prices, with COMEX copper rising by 9.63% [12][15] - Related copper stocks also saw gains, with Freeport-McMoRan Copper & Gold up 2.53% and Taseko Mines up 4.26% [16] Other Tech Stocks - Microsoft fell by 0.22%, Apple rose by 0.03%, Amazon dropped by 1.84%, Google decreased by 1.35%, Meta Platforms increased by 0.32%, and Tesla rose by 1.32% [8] Meta Platforms Investment - Meta Platforms reportedly acquired approximately 3% of EssilorLuxottica SA for about $3.5 billion, indicating a strategic investment in the growing smart glasses market [9] Tesla Developments - Cathie Wood, founder of Ark Invest, continues to support Tesla, noting CEO Elon Musk's decision to take direct control of U.S. and European sales as a pivotal moment for the company [9][10]

Market Overview - The US stock market experienced slight fluctuations with major indices showing mixed results, as investors remain cautious due to trade policy uncertainties under President Trump's latest tariff threats [1][2] - The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell by 165.6 points, a decrease of 0.37%, closing at 44,240.76 points; the S&P 500 index dipped by 4.46 points, down 0.07%, ending at 6,225.52 points; while the Nasdaq Composite Index rose by 5.95 points, an increase of 0.03%, closing at 20,418.46 points [1] Sector Performance - Among the 11 sectors of the S&P 500 index, only 5 sectors closed higher, with the energy sector leading the gains at 2.72%, benefiting from rising international oil prices [2] - The utilities and consumer staples sectors saw the largest declines, both dropping over 1% [2] Key Events - President Trump announced via social media that tariffs will be implemented starting August 1, 2025, following a delay from July 9 [2][3] - Market strategist Carol Schleif noted that the market is holding its breath for more details on tariffs, despite frequent policy signals causing disturbances [4] Technology Sector - The technology sector showed mixed results, with Nvidia rising by 1.11% to a record high of $160 per share, pushing its market capitalization above $3.9 trillion; however, Netflix, Amazon, and Google all fell by over 1% [5] - Tesla's stock increased by 1.3% [5] Chinese Stocks - Most popular Chinese stocks saw gains, with the Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index rising by 0.71%; iQIYI surged over 3%, while JD.com and New Oriental both rose over 2%, and Alibaba increased by 1.62% [6] Individual Stock Highlights - Moderna, a vaccine manufacturer, surged by 8.8%, becoming the best-performing stock in the S&P 500 index amid criticisms of the US vaccine policy [7] - The renewable energy sector faced pressure after Trump directed federal agencies to review tax credits related to wind and solar energy, leading to declines in stocks like SunRun (down 11.4%) and Enphase Energy (down 3.6%) [7] Commodity Market - Copper stocks generally rose, with Freeport-McMoRan Copper & Gold increasing by 2.53% and Taseko Mines rising by 4.26%, following Trump's consideration of a 50% additional tax on copper imports [8] - The price of copper on the New York market spiked by 16% at one point [9] - In the broader commodity market, WTI crude oil futures rose by 0.59% to $68.33 per barrel, while Brent crude increased by 0.82% to $70.15 per barrel; COMEX gold futures fell by 0.77% to $3,316.9 per ounce [9]

Group 1 - European stock markets initially outperformed US markets in early 2025, but US markets have since caught up, with the Stoxx 600 index up 6.6% year-to-date compared to the S&P 500's 6.8% [1] - The euro has appreciated by 14% against the US dollar this year, maintaining a currency advantage for Europe [4] - The technology sector has rebounded significantly, with a 24% increase since early April, driven by strong earnings forecasts from CEOs [5] Group 2 - Despite the S&P 500 reaching historical highs, some investors remain cautious, indicating potential overvaluation in US stocks, while European market valuations appear more reasonable [8] - The defense sector in Europe has surged by 50% this year, indicating investor caution as it contributes over 50% of returns despite only representing 16% of the Stoxx 600 index [11] - The euro is nearing a four-year high against the dollar, reversing earlier predictions of depreciation, as foreign investors adjust their strategies [14] Group 3 - Currency fluctuations are making European stocks cheaper for US investors, while US stocks are becoming more expensive for European investors, affecting overall market dynamics [17] - The Stoxx 600 index, when priced in dollars, reached a historical high in late June, despite not returning to its March peak in local currency [17]

当地时间7月3日，欧美股市全线上涨。受美国独立纪念日假期影响，美股提前收盘，美股三大指数均上 涨， 纳斯达克指数、标普500指数均创历史新高 。英国富时100指数、法国CAC40指数、德国DAX指数 均小幅上涨。 美股大型科技股涨跌不一， 英伟达创历史新高 。纳斯达克中国金龙指数收涨0.40%，虎虎科技国际涨 逾25%，斗鱼、万国数据涨逾10%。 当地时间7月3日，美国劳工部统计局公布的数据显示，美国6月季调后非农就业增14.7万人，预期增11.0 万人，前值从增13.9万人修正为增14.4万人。 美国非农数据发布后，纽约现货黄金价格跌近1%，国际原油价格小幅下跌。 纳斯达克指数、标普500指数创历史新高 当地时间7月3日，美股三大指数高开高走，截至收盘，道琼斯工业指数上涨0.77%、纳斯达克指数上涨 1.02%、标普500指数上涨0.83%，纳斯达克指数、标普500指数均创历史新高。 | L | w 全球 | | | --- | --- | --- | | A股 REITs 港股 | 美股 | 商品 外 三 | | 美洲市场 它 | | | | 道琼斯 | 纳斯达克 | 标普500 | | 44828.53 ...

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. stock market experienced significant gains, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq indices reaching all-time closing highs, driven by strong employment data indicating a resilient labor market [1][4]. Economic Data Summary - In June, the U.S. non-farm payrolls increased by 147,000, surpassing analysts' expectations of 110,000, marking a 33% increase. The unemployment rate fell to 4.1%, better than the expected 4.3% [5][6]. - Average hourly earnings rose by 0.2% month-over-month and 3.7% year-over-year, indicating moderate wage growth that may help alleviate inflationary pressures [5]. - Government sector jobs increased by 73,000, primarily in state and local education, while healthcare added 39,000 jobs [6]. - Initial jobless claims fell to 233,000, a six-week low, but continuing claims remained high at 1.964 million, the highest level since 2021, indicating challenges for some unemployed individuals in finding new jobs [7]. Market Performance Summary - The S&P 500 index rose by 1.72% over the week, while the Nasdaq index increased by 1.62%, and the Dow Jones index gained 2.3%. The Russell 2000 index, which reflects small-cap stocks, saw a 3.41% increase [4]. - Major tech stocks saw gains, with Nvidia rising by 1.3% to a market cap of $3.89 trillion, approaching Apple's record [1]. Legislative Developments - The "Big and Beautiful" bill was narrowly passed in the U.S. House of Representatives, projected to increase federal debt by $3.4 trillion over the next decade, with the current federal debt at approximately $36.2 trillion [4].

欧元区通胀数据显示出微妙变化。6月年化通胀率从1.9%反弹至2%，恰好触及欧洲央行设定的物价目 标。这一数据与市场预期保持一致，但背后的结构性特征值得关注。服务价格同比上升3.3%，食品和 烟酒价格上升3.1%，而能源价格则下降2.7%。核心通胀率维持在2.3%的水平，表明价格压力仍然存 在。 美国6月ADP就业数据的疲软表现为美联储政策预期带来新的变数。专业和商业服务以及医疗保健和教 育领域的就业岗位下降，成为服务业就业减少的主要原因。ADP首席经济学家理查德森指出，企业在招 聘上的犹豫态度以及不愿意补充离职员工，导致了就业岗位的减少。 这一数据引发了对即将公布的6月非农就业报告的高度关注。瑞银预计6月非农就业人数或仅增加10万 人，失业率或创2021年新高。花旗的预测更为悲观，认为非农就业仅增加8.5万人。如果6月就业数据表 现异常疲软，美联储最早可能在7月份采取降息行动。 美国就业市场的疲软表现与欧元区相对稳定的通胀环境形成对比。这种差异可能为欧元兑美元汇率提供 支撑因素。当前欧元兑美元汇率在1.17-1.18区间波动，市场正在权衡两大央行政策分化的影响。 美股市场的表现也反映出投资者对经济前景的复杂情 ...