Core Insights - Xi'an is set to launch a series of new commercial complexes from May to the end of the year, aiming to boost consumer spending and enhance the shopping experience [4] - The city has initiated a "Three Cities Linkage" consumption promotion campaign involving Xi'an, Hangzhou, and Kunming, focusing on resource sharing and exploring new consumption pathways [4] - Various promotional activities and policies are being implemented to stimulate consumption, including the "Old for New" program, which has gained significant traction [6][8] Group 1: Consumption Initiatives - The "Old for New" consumption initiative has been reinforced, with businesses offering substantial discounts and government subsidies, resulting in 1.1 billion yuan in consumer subsidies during the "May Day" holiday, benefiting 180,000 consumers and driving 7.74 billion yuan in sales [8] - The city has organized over a hundred promotional events during the "May Day" holiday, showcasing innovative commercial promotions and maintaining high consumer engagement [6][8] - The "One Voucher for All" initiative in Beilin District aims to convert tourism traffic into consumption growth, with a total value exceeding 4.4 million yuan [8][9] Group 2: Diverse Consumer Experiences - Recent events in Xi'an, such as the "Non-Heritage Food Festival" and various themed markets, have attracted significant public interest, blending cultural experiences with shopping [11][12] - The city is focusing on creating multi-scenario consumption experiences, integrating dining, retail, and entertainment to enhance consumer engagement [11][12] - The "West Delight Shopping·Fun Chang'an" series of activities will continue to innovate consumption scenarios and enrich the market offerings throughout the year [4][13] Group 3: Economic Impact - The monitored 49 commercial enterprises in Xi'an reported a sales revenue of 936 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 10.84%, with retail sales reaching 899 million yuan, up 11.16% [7] - The combination of government support and business initiatives is expected to inject strong momentum into the local economy, enhancing overall consumer confidence and spending [10][13] - The city's strategy includes a comprehensive framework for consumption promotion, targeting various sectors such as automotive, home appliances, and digital products, to foster a sustainable consumption ecosystem [14]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the vibrant cultural and commercial activities in Pudong, particularly focusing on the "First Release Economy" which aims to stimulate consumer spending through various events and exhibitions [9][12][23]. Group 1: Events and Activities - The "First Release Economy" is characterized by the launch of new products, services, and experiences, which is seen as a strategic move to enhance brand memory and connect global resources [9]. - The "Pudong Carnival - Shopping Festival" is currently ongoing, featuring a series of cultural, artistic, and sports events that link the "First Release Economy" with tourism and commerce [1][19]. - The first "Meizhuang Festival" is taking place at the Taikoo Li in Pudong, coinciding with the "International Museum Day," where 17 museums and 11 art galleries in Pudong are offering free admission [1][2]. Group 2: Notable Exhibitions - The Pudong Museum will host a special exhibition titled "Creating Modernity" in collaboration with the Musée d'Orsay, showcasing over a hundred European art treasures, including works by Van Gogh and Monet, starting June 19 [5][15]. - Recently, the Pudong Museum also held the global premiere exhibition of the Italian brand Loro Piana, marking a significant event in showcasing traditional craftsmanship and fashion [7]. Group 3: Consumer Engagement and Incentives - Various shopping districts in Pudong are offering discounts and incentives to attract consumers, including dining discounts and shopping subsidies during major events [17]. - The district has introduced policies to support the "First Release Economy," providing financial incentives for brands to establish their first stores and launch new products in Pudong [17]. Group 4: Future Developments - Pudong aims to continue enhancing its consumer ecosystem through policy innovation and service optimization, positioning itself as a global hub for new product launches and a leader in fashion consumption [23].

分析师：柏逸凡 登记编号：S0890524100001 分析师：程秉哲 登记编号：S0890522110001 投资要点 报告统计时间为2025.05.05-2025.05.09。 静观其变，谋而后动。关税下调之后，可适度控制仓位，静观其变，建议关注红利低波、银行、 公用事业等方向。待市场出现阶段性调整或政策发力紧迫性提高时再积极布局，可关注AI+、 TMT、电子等科技方向，以及旅游、文娱、体育等新型消费的逢低布局机会。 权益市场， 上周，市场风格方面，小盘及成长风格表现强势；风格波动方面，市场风格波动处于 低位，风格较为稳定。市场结构方面，上周，行业指数超额收益离散度继续下降，成分股上涨比 例先升后降，行业轮动速度快速上升；交易集中度方面，前100个股成交额占比及前5行业成交额 占比继续维持在低位，显示行业热点较为分散。市场活跃度方面，上周，市场波动率从高位迅速 下降，换手率亦快速下行。 商品市场方面， 上周，趋势强度表现分化，能化、黑色板块延续其较强的趋势性，有色、农产 品、贵金属板块趋势性较弱；基差动量方面，有色、农产品板块维持高位；波动率方面，各板块 波动率从高位大幅下降；流动性方面，各板块流动性表现 ...

2025 年 05 月 13 日 证券研究报告 | 金融工程周报 关税下调之后，市场分歧仍存 市场环境因子跟踪周报（2025.05.09） 分析师：柏逸凡 分析师登记编码：S0890524100001 电话：021-20321081 邮箱：baiyifan@cnhbstock.com 分析师登记编码：S0890522110001 电话：021-20321297 邮箱：chengbingzhe@cnhbstock.com 021-20515355 相关研究报告 向 — 市 场 环 境 因 子 跟 踪 周 报 （2025.04.30）》2025-05-07 2、《关税问题反复，大盘延续稳健—市场 中 观 因 子 跟 踪 周 报 （ 2025.04.27 ）》 2025-04-29 3、《市场进入降波阶段，风格稳定性上升 —量化数据看板跟踪周报（2025.04.20）》 2025-04-23 风 险 特 征 解 析 — 量 化 策 略 视 点 》 2024-12-17 投资要点 报告统计时间为 2025.05.05-2025.05.09。 分析师：程秉哲 静观其变，谋而后动。关税下调之后，可适度控制仓位，静观其变， ...

- The report covers the period from 2025.05.05 to 2025.05.09[10] Quantitative Factors and Construction Methods Stock Market Factors 1. **Factor Name**: Market Style Factors - **Construction Idea**: Track the performance and volatility of different market styles such as small-cap vs. large-cap and growth vs. value[11] - **Construction Process**: - Measure the performance of small-cap and large-cap stocks - Measure the performance of growth and value stocks - Calculate the volatility of these styles - **Evaluation**: The market style factors showed a strong performance for small-cap and growth styles, with low volatility[11][13] 2. **Factor Name**: Market Structure Factors - **Construction Idea**: Analyze the dispersion of excess returns among industry indices and the concentration of trading volume[11] - **Construction Process**: - Calculate the dispersion of excess returns among industry indices - Measure the proportion of trading volume of the top 100 stocks and the top 5 industries - **Evaluation**: The market structure factors indicated a decrease in the dispersion of excess returns and low concentration of trading volume[11][13] 3. **Factor Name**: Market Activity Factors - **Construction Idea**: Track the market's volatility and turnover rate[12] - **Construction Process**: - Measure the market's volatility - Calculate the turnover rate - **Evaluation**: The market activity factors showed a rapid decline in both volatility and turnover rate[12][13] Commodity Market Factors 1. **Factor Name**: Commodity Trend Strength - **Construction Idea**: Measure the trend strength of different commodity sectors[25] - **Construction Process**: - Calculate the trend strength for energy, black metals, non-ferrous metals, agricultural products, and precious metals - **Evaluation**: The trend strength was strong for energy and black metals, while weak for non-ferrous metals, agricultural products, and precious metals[25][28] 2. **Factor Name**: Basis Momentum - **Construction Idea**: Track the basis momentum of different commodity sectors[25] - **Construction Process**: - Measure the basis momentum for non-ferrous metals and agricultural products - **Evaluation**: The basis momentum remained high for non-ferrous metals and agricultural products[25][28] 3. **Factor Name**: Commodity Volatility - **Construction Idea**: Measure the volatility of different commodity sectors[25] - **Construction Process**: - Calculate the volatility for energy, black metals, non-ferrous metals, agricultural products, and precious metals - **Evaluation**: The volatility significantly decreased from high levels across all sectors[25][28] 4. **Factor Name**: Commodity Liquidity - **Construction Idea**: Track the liquidity of different commodity sectors[25] - **Construction Process**: - Measure the liquidity for energy, black metals, non-ferrous metals, agricultural products, and precious metals - **Evaluation**: The liquidity showed mixed performance across different sectors[25][28] Option Market Factors 1. **Factor Name**: Implied Volatility - **Construction Idea**: Measure the implied volatility of options on different indices[33] - **Construction Process**: - Calculate the implied volatility for options on the SSE 50 and CSI 1000 indices - **Evaluation**: The implied volatility for SSE 50 and CSI 1000 options significantly decreased, indicating a divergence in market views on small-cap stocks[33][34] Convertible Bond Market Factors 1. **Factor Name**: Convertible Bond Premium - **Construction Idea**: Measure the premium of convertible bonds[35] - **Construction Process**: - Calculate the premium for convertible bonds priced around 100 yuan - **Evaluation**: The premium showed a slight adjustment, with the market valuation at a moderately high level[35][37] Factor Backtesting Results 1. **Market Style Factors**: - Small-cap and growth styles showed strong performance with low volatility[11][13] 2. **Market Structure Factors**: - Decrease in excess return dispersion and low trading volume concentration[11][13] 3. **Market Activity Factors**: - Rapid decline in market volatility and turnover rate[12][13] 4. **Commodity Trend Strength**: - Strong trend for energy and black metals, weak for others[25][28] 5. **Basis Momentum**: - High basis momentum for non-ferrous metals and agricultural products[25][28] 6. **Commodity Volatility**: - Significant decrease in volatility across all sectors[25][28] 7. **Commodity Liquidity**: - Mixed liquidity performance across sectors[25][28] 8. **Implied Volatility**: - Significant decrease in implied volatility for SSE 50 and CSI 1000 options[33][34] 9. **Convertible Bond Premium**: - Slight adjustment in premium, moderately high market valuation[35][37]

营收增长利润承压，旅游景区业绩稳健 [Table_ReportType] ——社会服务行业 2024 年业绩综述报告[Table_ReportDate] [投资要点： Table_Summary] 社会服务板块全年业绩增收不增利。2024 年上市公司业绩出炉，社会 服务板块增收不增利，营业收入合计 1907.95 亿元，同比增长 6.95%， 在申万一级行业中排名第 3；归母净利润合计 73.66 亿元，同比下降 31.26%，在申万一级行业中排名第 22。 旅游及景区板块：2024 年旅游及景区板块实现营收 354.23 亿元，同比 +15.24%，归母净利润 16.73 亿元，同比+7.19%。五一黄金周居民旅游 热情高涨，旅游市场持续回暖。调休工作日的减少使得更多游客选择拼 假开启早鸟游或节末错峰游，推动长线游目的地表现亮眼，各地创新和 丰富消费场景，以多元供给激发消费潜力、市场活力，为游客带来深度 体验。 3288 酒店餐饮板块：2024 年酒店餐饮板块实现营收 298.53 亿元，同比- 1.49%，归母净利润 15.67 亿元，同比-19.73%。消费承压导致板块业绩 出现波动，全年表现不佳。行业 ...

北服毕业展在国际设计周永久会址举行。本报记者 陈强 摄 城市绿心森林公园，草木葱茏，美不胜收。 本报特约摄影 马文晓 活力汇。 本报记者 陈强 摄 副中心政务服务中心。 本报记者 白继开 摄 北光厂光学楼外立面上有很多爬山虎。 北光厂 供图 通州体育场蓝色跑道惊艳亮相。 常鸣 摄 关键词 老厂房 北泡厂车间▶▶▶国际设计周永久会址 工业美感融合时尚设计 今年，北京服装学院将在通州设立新校区。作为入驻副中心的先导活动，北服本科生毕业作品展目前正在张家湾设计小镇举行，汇聚了1000多名学生的数千 件作品。 这场毕业大展的举办地是国际设计周永久会址。这里曾是张凤路上的明星企业北泡厂，它见证了"通州第一工业重镇"的辉煌。 北泡厂建于1999年，是一家生产压型钢板、夹芯板等材料的国有企业。如今的国际设计周永久会址，正是利用北泡厂夹芯板车间改造而来。进入副中心时 代，张家湾逐渐从工业区蜕变为设计小镇，"腾笼换鸟"的过程中，北泡厂夹芯板车间遵循"不拆真，不做旧"理念，将原有钢结构悉数保留，最大限度保持原 有厂区空间形态和厂区肌理。2023年，国际设计周永久会址亮相后，立马成了设计小镇的新地标，很多人称赞它：成功继承了老厂房 ...

Supply and Demand Dynamics - Two industry categories are highlighted: "supply clearance" industries with significant inventory and capacity reduction, and "strong expansion" industries with high revenue growth and capacity expansion[2] - Industries exhibiting "supply clearance" characteristics include plastics, general equipment, gaming, agriculture, small metals, optical electronics, and communication services[2] - Industries showing "strong expansion" characteristics include other electronics, leisure food, motorcycles, precious metals, and shipping ports[2] Export Chain Analysis - Key export chain industries with high overseas revenue proportions include other home appliances, consumer electronics, shipping ports, small appliances, and engineering machinery[3] - Industries with high revenue exposure to the U.S. face uncertainty until trade relations improve, with potential valuation recovery for sectors like entertainment products and textiles if tariffs ease[3] High Dividend Yield Insights - High dividend yield sectors identified include coal mining, oil and gas extraction, refining and trading, shipping ports, and white goods[4] - Notable increases in dividend yields for transportation and consumer sectors compared to the previous year, particularly in shipping ports, logistics, and white goods[4] Market Strategy and Outlook - The A-share market shows resilience, with ETF net outflows indicating reduced support from protective funds, yet maintaining a steady upward trend with transaction volumes above 1 trillion[5] - The market is at a turning point, with key factors to monitor including U.S.-China trade talks and domestic economic indicators[5] - A broad fluctuation is expected in the A-share market, with strong support likely at lower levels, suggesting potential for increased positions if support levels are tested[5] Investment Recommendations - Balanced asset allocation is advised to navigate uncertainties, with a focus on technology sectors potentially regaining momentum[6] - Transitioning trading strategies from exceeding expectations to focusing on high-growth industries such as feed, motorcycles, plastics, and animal health[6] - Defensive assets like banks, insurance, and utilities remain viable as core holdings, with attention to sectors with rising dividend yields[6]

Group 1: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Two categories of industries are highlighted: "supply clearing" industries with significant inventory and capacity reduction, and "strong expansion" industries with high revenue growth and capacity expansion [2][15]. - Industries exhibiting "supply clearing" characteristics include plastics, general equipment, gaming, agriculture, small metals, optical electronics, and communication services [2][15]. - Industries showing "strong expansion" characteristics include other electronics, leisure food, motorcycles, precious metals, and shipping ports [2][17]. Group 2: Export Chain Analysis - Industries with high overseas revenue ratios are expected to maintain independent growth despite domestic demand pressures, including other home appliances, consumer electronics, shipping ports, small appliances, and engineering machinery [3][20]. - The report notes that industries with high revenue from the U.S. face uncertainties until U.S.-China trade relations improve, with potential valuation recovery for sectors like entertainment products, textile manufacturing, and lighting equipment if tariff issues ease [3][23]. Group 3: High Dividend Yield Industries - High dividend yield industries identified include coal mining, oil and gas extraction, refining and trading, shipping ports, and white goods [4][26]. - Notably, the dividend yield for transportation and consumer sectors has significantly increased compared to the previous year, particularly in shipping ports, logistics, and white goods [4][26]. Group 4: Market Performance and Strategy - The A-share market shows resilience, with a net outflow of ETFs indicating reduced support from protective funds, yet the market remains stable with transaction volumes exceeding 1 trillion [5][29]. - The report suggests a cautious approach to position management due to ongoing uncertainties, with a focus on potential support levels for the index [5][29]. - A balanced allocation strategy is recommended to navigate uncertainties, with a renewed interest in technology sectors, particularly in AI, and a shift towards high-growth industries such as feed, motorcycles, and plastics [5][30].

Group 1 - Jin Xing Beer launched two new products: Jin Xing Ice Sugar Hawthorn Chinese Craft Beer and Jin Xing Qing Jiao Chinese Craft Beer, combining unique flavors with traditional elements [4] - Minor Figures introduced Hyper Oat, a new line of oat drinks focusing on both taste and functionality, available in four unique flavors [4] - Birkenstock 1774 launched the Arizona CosNy new product series, featuring minimalist designs and durable materials [4] Group 2 - Luzhou Laojiao unveiled two new products during the Jiao Zhu Festival, emphasizing the integration of traditional liquor culture with modern healthy lifestyles [5] - Yuanqi Forest launched a new plant-based drink called "Slow Boil," developed over two years in collaboration with young consumers [5] - Lay's relaunched its spicy series of potato chips with three levels of spiciness, catering to diverse consumer preferences [7] Group 3 - The first shared store between Lianjia and Luckin Coffee opened, allowing customers to handle real estate transactions while enjoying popular coffee products [10] - Alien Electrolyte Water collaborated with the show "Big Detective" to launch a limited edition product, featuring low-sugar coconut-flavored electrolyte water [10] - Michael Kors opened a limited-time tea and alcohol shop in Hangzhou, showcasing its new spring-summer collection [10] Group 4 - Bobbie launched an organic whole milk infant formula, certified by the USDA, emphasizing quality and safety [22] - Suntory released a limited edition "Master's Dream" beer with an alcohol content of 4.5%, themed around Japan's seasonal changes [23] - Panpan Beverage introduced a new Chenpi water product, combining traditional ingredients for digestive health [24] Group 5 - KIKO Milano appointed Patricia Ho as the new head for the Asia-Pacific region, following a majority stake acquisition by L Catterton [27] - Charlotte Tilbury's founder made a live debut in China, promoting new products in collaboration with influencer Li Jiaqi [30] - Proya became the first beauty group in China to achieve over 10 billion yuan in revenue, reporting a 21.04% year-on-year growth [31]