而曾经溢价超50倍的LABUBU系列，却因补货导致二手价暴跌60%，隐藏款"本我"从4600元跌至2800 元。星星人、MOKOKO会成为下一个被炒的"LABUBU"吗？ 潮玩新品未售先热，泡沫几何？ 在中国传媒大学新闻学院副教授、中国社会心理学会理事兼传播心理专委会副秘书长陈锐看来，玩偶、 文创这类时尚消费品能够火出圈，有多方面原因。 一方面是背后有经济推动力，企业、店铺会主动大力宣传；3另一方面则是追捧群体的社交动员，粉丝 们在社交平台的分享能很好地为热度"加把火"。 本次泡泡玛特新品价格涨幅惊人。MOKOKO搪胶毛绒挂件原价199元，黄牛报出的转让价格超过800 元；原价474元可买6个的星星人毛绒挂件盲盒，每一个都被标注了几十到100多不等的价格，一套价格 已被炒至数百甚至近千元。 泡泡玛特计划在21日推出"星星人好梦气象局"和"MOKOKO晒晒夏日"系列新品。然而，在发售前48小 时，部分新品在二手平台被炒至原价的4倍，原价199元的MOKOKO搪胶毛绒挂件被标出840元，商家声 称"只放十单，涨到5000都给你"。 | 现货4只泡泡玛特MOKOKO大甜心，全新 ... | | | --- | -- ...

Summary of the Call Transcript on the Trendy Toy Industry Industry Overview - The trendy toy market was initiated by Hong Kong artists, integrating art and fashion elements, with diverse forms including figurines, sculptures, and blind boxes [1][2] - The broad definition of trendy toys includes collaborations with IPs from films, anime, and games, catering to specific enthusiasts [1][3] - The blind box segment has rapidly gained popularity due to low consumer and cognitive barriers, high adaptability, and hidden design features [1][4] Key Insights - **Consumer Demographics**: The core audience for trendy toys is aged between 15 and 40, with a higher proportion of female users, although the overall gender ratio is becoming more balanced [1][6][8] - **Market Size and Growth**: The domestic trendy toy market is expected to exceed 100 billion yuan by 2026, with blind boxes showing high growth rates. The IP toy market is projected to be around 700 billion yuan, with building and assembly toys accounting for about 30% [1][11][12] - **Market Competition**: The market is fragmented, with LEGO leading at 12 billion yuan GMV, followed by Pop Mart at 8.7 billion and Brook at 2.5 billion. The top ten companies hold about 50% of the market share [1][13] Success Factors for Trendy Toy Companies - **Traffic IP**: Successful companies leverage high-traffic IPs, typically character designs rather than content-based, due to their higher commercialization potential [4][5] - **Product Quality**: High-quality products are essential, requiring effective design and supply chain barriers [5] - **Social Media and Secondary Market**: Effective social media marketing enhances brand visibility, while a convenient secondary market facilitates transactions [5] - **Entertainment and Interaction**: Creating engaging purchase experiences and interactive scenarios increases consumer entertainment value [5] Consumer Needs in Blind Box Purchases - **Value for Money**: Consumers seek affordable and easily accessible products [7] - **Emotional Connection**: There is a desire for self-identity, curiosity, and social recognition through collecting [7][6] - **Social Interaction**: Collecting and trading through social platforms fosters community engagement [7] IP Acquisition and Market Dynamics - **IP Acquisition**: The domestic market primarily acquires IP through self-incubation and collaborations with independent artists, with IP accounting for a small percentage of GMV [10] - **Future Trends**: The market is still in its early stages, with potential for structural changes and innovation in product categories [12] Company Strategies - **Pop Mart's Expansion**: Pop Mart is expanding its IP matrix and product categories, with plans to open 320 stores next year, increasing its overseas presence significantly [2][16][21] - **52TOYS Strategy**: 52TOYS focuses on a combination of self-owned and licensed IPs, with a significant portion of revenue coming from external IPs [22][23] Sales Channels and Revenue - **Diverse Sales Channels**: Both companies are diversifying their sales channels, with a significant reliance on distributors while also expanding direct-to-consumer (D2C) models [24][21] - **Revenue Projections**: 52TOYS generates 70-80% of its revenue from licensed IPs, with a focus on static blind boxes and figurines [23] Future Outlook - **IPO Plans**: The companies are preparing for potential IPOs, with Pop Mart expected to file in Hong Kong, aiming for a listing in 2025 or 2026 [26]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) due to strong performance in both domestic and international markets, with H1 2025 revenue growth exceeding market expectations [5]. Core Views - The company anticipates a revenue growth of no less than 200% year-on-year for H1 2025, with a projected profit increase of no less than 350% during the same period. This growth is attributed to enhanced brand recognition, diversified product offerings, and increased overseas revenue contribution [7]. - The global design and supply chain strategies have laid a solid foundation for the company's successful international expansion, leveraging collaborations with global artists and influencers to enhance brand visibility [7]. - The collectible toy market is in a rapid growth phase, with leading brands expected to continue gaining market share. The company has increased its market share from 8.5% in 2019 to 13.6% in 2021, supported by its proprietary IP and strong operational capabilities [7]. Financial Summary - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: - 2023: 6,301 million RMB - 2024: 13,038 million RMB (growth of 106.92%) - 2025E: 35,068 million RMB (growth of 168.97%) - 2026E: 50,980 million RMB (growth of 45.38%) - 2027E: 60,001 million RMB (growth of 17.69%) [6][8] - Net profit forecasts are: - 2023: 1,082.34 million RMB - 2024: 3,125.47 million RMB (growth of 188.77%) - 2025E: 10,546.48 million RMB (growth of 237.44%) - 2026E: 16,244.08 million RMB (growth of 54.02%) - 2027E: 19,769.32 million RMB (growth of 21.70%) [6][8] - The company maintains a healthy return on equity (ROE) forecast, with values projected at 29.26% for 2024, 49.62% for 2025, and 34.49% for 2027 [6][9].

Core Insights - The female-oriented gaming market, particularly with nurturing and otome games, is experiencing significant growth, evidenced by titles like "Shining Nikki" and "Love and Deep Space" surpassing established games like "Honor of Kings" in sales rankings [1][2] - The launch of the new brand DearNikki by the game company Paper Games, along with the successful release of the "Dream Weaving Prologue" blind boxes, indicates a strong market potential for female-oriented games in the collectible toy sector [1][2] - The collaboration with X11 for offline distribution has proven effective, with rapid sellouts and high consumer demand for the blind boxes, showcasing the popularity of the "Nikki" series [2][3] Market Performance - The initial online release of the "Nikki" blind boxes sold over 60,000 units within hours, with total sales exceeding 80,000 units shortly after [2] - The blind boxes are priced at 79 yuan each, with a height of approximately 13 cm, which is competitive compared to similar products in the market [2] - Offline sales through X11 stores have also been strong, with rapid sellouts and frequent restocking, indicating sustained consumer interest [3][5] Consumer Behavior - The blind boxes initially faced slow sales but quickly gained popularity, leading to frequent restocking due to high demand [5][6] - Players express a preference for purchasing blind boxes in-store, where they have a chance to find hidden variants, enhancing the shopping experience [5][10] - The quality of the blind boxes has received mixed reviews, with some consumers demanding refunds due to quality issues, while others are more forgiving given the price point [11] Industry Trends - The female gaming demographic is growing rapidly, with female players in Asia accounting for 37% of the total gaming population and showing an annual growth rate of 11% [12] - The market for female-oriented games in China reached 16.62 billion yuan in 2022, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 12.8% [12][14] - The success of the "Nikki" blind boxes suggests a potential for further expansion into the collectible toy market, which could provide additional revenue streams for female-oriented games [16]

Core Viewpoint - Pop Mart's performance has significantly improved, with expected revenue growth of over 200% and profit growth of over 350% for the first half of the year, driven by increased global brand recognition and rising overseas revenue share [1][4][7]. Group 1: Financial Performance - Pop Mart anticipates revenue for the first half of 2025 to exceed 137 billion yuan, with net profit surpassing 41 billion yuan, indicating that both revenue and profit have already exceeded the total for the previous year [11][12]. - The company reported a 62% year-on-year revenue increase to 45.58 billion yuan and a 93.32% increase in net profit to 9.21 billion yuan for the first half of 2024 [10]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - As a leader in the new consumption sector, Pop Mart's strong performance alleviates investor concerns regarding its high valuation, with future stock performance dependent on maintaining high growth and profit margins [2][15]. - The company's overseas revenue share is increasing, positively impacting gross and net profits, while scale effects have significantly boosted profitability [8][9]. Group 3: Analyst Insights - UBS forecasts that Pop Mart's cash flow return on investment (CFROI) will exceed 40% by 2025-2026, driven by sales doubling and EBITDA margin recovery [22][23]. - Citi has raised its profit forecasts for Pop Mart for 2025-2027 by 38% to 49%, expecting net profit growth of 124% and 40% for the next two years [16][17]. Group 4: Product and Brand Development - The popularity of Pop Mart's flagship IP, Labubu, is expanding globally, particularly in North America and Europe, with new product launches expected to act as short-term catalysts [18][19]. - The "Labubu craze" is also gaining traction in Australia, with significant sales figures reported for Labubu apparel [27]. Group 5: Stock Performance and Valuation - Pop Mart's stock price has increased by 194.68% year-to-date, closing at 263.2 HKD per share, with a market capitalization of 353.63 billion HKD [13]. - UBS's valuation model suggests three potential stock price scenarios based on growth and margin sustainability, indicating a possible 43% upside if growth continues [24].

Group 1 - The recent decline in the second-hand price of LEGO's new product "Toothless" by nearly 200 yuan indicates a cooling market for LEGO, which was previously regarded as a "plastic gold" due to its high resale value [3][6] - The official price of the new "Toothless" set is 629 yuan, but it is being sold on second-hand platforms for around 423 yuan, reflecting a significant discount [3][4] - The decline in LEGO's second-hand prices is attributed to market competition and changing consumer interests, rather than a loss of brand popularity [6][9] Group 2 - The collectible value of trendy toys like LEGO is closely tied to current pop culture and market demand, leading to price fluctuations based on consumer interest [6][9] - The rise of domestic brands like Pop Mart, which has introduced innovative blind box products, has significantly impacted LEGO's market position [8][11] - The overall toy market is evolving, with domestic brands rapidly improving in areas such as supply chain optimization and digital transformation, posing challenges for LEGO in meeting local consumer preferences [11]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the rapid growth of the潮玩 (trendy toy) market, particularly driven by the popularity of the LABUBU IP under Pop Mart, which has led to a significant increase in demand for related products such as潮玩收纳盒 (trendy toy storage boxes) [1][4] - The潮玩收纳盒 market has seen a surge in brand offerings and price differentiation, with Pop Mart's storage boxes priced significantly higher than those of other brands, indicating a clear brand premium [2][3] - The market for潮玩收纳盒 is expanding due to the increasing number of潮玩 enthusiasts, particularly among younger consumers, who are willing to invest in quality storage solutions for their collectibles [4][5] Group 2 - The pricing of潮玩收纳盒 varies widely, with Pop Mart's products ranging from approximately 10 yuan to 369 yuan, showcasing a substantial brand premium compared to competitors [2][3] - The growth of the潮玩收纳盒 market is further fueled by the influx of new businesses entering the space, as evidenced by entrepreneurs like Zhang Hua, whose factory has achieved over 200 million yuan in GMV [4] - Seasonal factors, such as the summer break, have also contributed to increased demand for潮玩收纳盒, as more students engage in purchasing潮玩 [4][6]

Core Viewpoint - The潮玩 (trendy toy) market in China is experiencing rapid growth, but it is also characterized by high volatility and risks, with many companies facing challenges in profitability and sustainability [7][16][19]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The潮玩 market is projected to reach a scale of 101.8 billion yuan by 2024 and 212.1 billion yuan by 2029, indicating significant growth potential [9]. - As of May 2025, there are approximately 22,300潮玩-related companies in China, with 3,443 registered between January and April of the same year [9]. - The market is witnessing a surge in IPOs, with companies like 52TOYS and Top Toy planning to go public, reflecting the industry's ambition despite underlying profitability issues [13][14]. Group 2: Company Performance - 52TOYS has reported a loss of nearly 200 million yuan over three years, with its 2024 revenue only one-fifth of that of泡泡玛特 (Pop Mart) [17]. - Top Toy, despite a 45% year-on-year growth, still generated less than one-third of泡泡玛特's revenue in 2024 [17]. - 泡泡玛特's stock price has seen significant fluctuations, with a drop of over 15% following a large inventory restock of its Labubu series, leading to a market cap loss of over 50 billion HKD [18]. Group 3: Competitive Landscape - The潮玩 industry is marked by a "winner-takes-all" effect, where a few brands dominate the market while many others struggle to differentiate themselves [11][18]. - The entry of名创优品 (Miniso) into the潮玩 space has intensified competition, as it rapidly releases new products and captures a significant share of the licensed market [21]. - The reliance on licensed IPs poses risks for companies like 52TOYS, which faces high licensing fees and pressure to meet sales targets [23]. Group 4: International Expansion -潮玩 brands are increasingly looking to international markets, particularly Southeast Asia, for growth opportunities, with significant sales reported in countries like Vietnam [42][46]. - The潮玩 market's expansion into the Middle East is also gaining traction, driven by cultural events and rising consumer interest in pop culture [48][50]. - The global潮玩 market is expected to reach 62.1 billion USD by 2030, highlighting the international potential for Chinese潮玩 brands [52].

Summary of MINISO Conference Call Company and Industry Overview - The conference call discusses MINISO, a retail company focusing on IP derivative products, which is part of the broader IP licensing industry that maintains a growth rate of nearly 10% [2][4] - The collectible toy market, particularly in the IP sector, has a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 20%, with plush toys and blind boxes being the fastest-growing segments [2][4] Core Insights and Arguments - MINISO strategically entered the IP retail sector to target core customer groups, shifting from a cost-effective positioning to a more segmented user profile, aligning with the transformation trends in offline retail [2][7] - The company has a global multi-tiered channel system that empowers upstream licensing and facilitates the international expansion of domestic IPs [2][8] - MINISO's product development cycle is rapid, with an inventory turnover period of about 90 days, allowing for quick adaptation to market demands [2][8] - The demand for global IP licensing and derivative products is increasing, providing MINISO with opportunities to expand market share, especially in the Chinese market where the penetration rate of licensed products is significantly lower than in the U.S. [2][4][10] Competitive Advantages - MINISO's competitive advantages include: 1. A global, multi-tiered channel system that enhances its licensing capabilities [8] 2. Strong product development and iteration capabilities, with a quick inventory turnover [8] 3. A strategic positioning in overseas markets with a diverse range of IP products at competitive prices [8][9] Areas for Improvement - Past collaborations, such as with Marvel, revealed issues with inventory management and product precision, indicating room for improvement in distribution and stock management [11] - The performance of certain products, like the Chikawa line in first and second-tier cities, was suboptimal, highlighting the need for better market fit and inventory strategies [11] Strategic Initiatives for 2025 - In 2025, MINISO is focusing on core categories such as gummy plush toys, blind boxes, perfumes, and travel products, while launching co-branded and self-designed new products [12][13] - The introduction of the MINISO Land store format in key commercial areas aims to enhance brand image and significantly boost single-store revenue, with one store's performance equating to that of 30 regular stores [3][13] - New exclusive partnerships with brands like TMT Space and others have been established to strengthen MINISO's position as an IP collection store [14] Performance and Future Outlook - MINISO's overall performance has shown improvement, with same-store sales turning positive as of May 2025, and expectations for further growth due to a low base effect [15] - The company is shifting its focus from rapid store expansion to optimizing existing stores, particularly in overseas markets [15] - MINISO's current price-to-earnings ratio is 13 times, which is considered attractive compared to other retailers and IP valuations, leading to a buy recommendation [15][16]

Core Insights - The Labubu doll series has gained immense popularity globally, particularly in the overseas market, becoming a "social currency" in the fashion scene, driven by celebrity endorsements and social media trends [2][6][30] - The low cost of doll clothing production in China allows for significant markups when sold internationally, attracting many Chinese merchants to enter the cross-border market [3][14][28] - The demand for Labubu-related products has surged, with many businesses experiencing rapid growth, but challenges such as production capacity, communication issues, and copyright risks remain prevalent [26][27][29] Industry Overview - The global expansion of Labubu is part of a broader strategy by Pop Mart, which has focused on establishing a strong international presence through physical stores and localized marketing efforts [6][30] - The trend of "emotional consumption" in the toy market indicates that as long as demand exists, the market will continue to thrive, regardless of specific IP popularity [31][32] Market Dynamics - The overseas market for Labubu has seen a significant increase in interest, with many consumers willing to pay a premium for unique and creatively designed doll clothing [12][19] - Merchants are leveraging social media platforms like TikTok and Instagram to drive sales, with different consumer preferences observed between domestic and international buyers [21][19] Challenges and Risks - The rapid growth in demand has led to production capacity concerns, with smaller businesses struggling to compete with larger clients who can place substantial orders [26][28] - The prevalence of counterfeit products poses a significant risk, leading to customer dissatisfaction and potential legal issues for legitimate sellers [22][29] - Merchants face challenges in maintaining profitability due to high operational costs and the complexities of cross-border logistics [28][29]