Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [4][6]. Core Views - The company is expected to achieve a revenue of 3.44 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 4.2%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to decline by 17.7% to 801 million yuan [1][4]. - The competitive landscape in the construction agency industry is intensifying, leading to a decrease in construction fees and profit margins [1][3]. - Despite the challenges, the company retains a market share of 22.1% in new contracts, maintaining its leading position in the construction agency market [2][4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company’s revenue is projected at 3.44 billion yuan, with commercial construction revenue at 2.75 billion yuan (up 17.3%) and government construction revenue at 626 million yuan (down 20.6%) [1]. - The gross profit margin for commercial construction is expected to be 51.2% (down 1.1 percentage points), while for government construction, it is projected at 40.1% (down 5.1 percentage points), leading to an overall gross margin of 49.6% (down 2.6 percentage points) [1][3]. Market Position and Strategy - The company signed new construction contracts covering an area of 36.5 million square meters in 2024, a 3.4% increase, but the new contract value decreased by 10.1% to 9.32 billion yuan, with a new contract price of 255 yuan per square meter (down 13.1%) [2]. - The company’s project distribution is increasingly focused on first- and second-tier cities, which now account for 58% of new projects [2]. Future Outlook - The company is expected to maintain a high dividend payout ratio of 60%, with a proposed final dividend of 0.24 yuan per share, totaling 482 million yuan [3][4]. - Revenue forecasts for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 3.57 billion yuan, 3.65 billion yuan, and 3.59 billion yuan, respectively, with net profits of 768 million yuan, 812 million yuan, and 866 million yuan [4][5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform the Market" rating for the company [6]. Core Views - The company has turned profitable after two years, achieving a net profit attributable to shareholders of 73.41 million yuan in 2024, a significant improvement from a loss of 850 million yuan in 2023 [2][21]. - The company's revenue structure shows that the existing housing brokerage business, new housing business, and asset management business contributed 80%, 13%, and 6% to the total gross transaction value (GTV) respectively, while their revenue contributions were 33%, 9%, and 49% [7][3]. - The company is expected to benefit from favorable real estate policies and a stable housing market, with projected net profits of 300 million yuan and 380 million yuan for 2025 and 2026 respectively [4][60]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved total housing transaction volume of 287.6 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1%, and operating revenue of 12.5 billion yuan, up 4% year-on-year [7]. - The net profit margin improved to 0.6%, an increase of 7.6 percentage points year-on-year, with a gross margin of 9.8% [2][21]. - The company maintained a strong operating cash flow of 4.5 billion yuan in 2024 [7]. Business Segments - The brokerage business and new housing business had transaction totals of 231.5 billion yuan and 38.1 billion yuan respectively, with year-on-year changes of +4% and -16% [3][37]. - The asset management business generated revenue of 6.1 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 6% [51]. Market Position - The company operates 2,636 stores, with 81% being direct-operated, and has approximately 30,000 agents [3][37]. - The company focuses on enhancing market share in core cities while stabilizing its operational scale [3][37].

2025 年 4 月 11 日 招银国际环球市场 | 市场策略 | 招财日报 每日投资策略 宏观及公司点评 全球市场观察 招银国际研究部 邮件：research@cmbi.com.hk | 环球主要股市上日表现 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 收市价 | | 升跌（%） | | | | 单日 | 年内 | | 恒生指数 | 20,682 | 2.06 | 21.32 | | 恒生国企 | 7,668 | 1.76 | 32.94 | | 恒生科技 | 4,814 | 2.66 | 27.88 | | 上证综指 | 3,224 | 1.16 | 8.36 | | 深证综指 | 1,868 | 2.46 | 1.66 | | 深圳创业板 | 1,901 | 2.27 | 0.48 | | 美国道琼斯 | 39,594 | -2.50 | 5.05 | | 美国标普 500 | 5,268 | -3.46 | 10.45 | | 美国纳斯达克 | 16,387 | -4.31 | 9.17 | | 德国 DAX | 20,563 | 4.53 | 22.75 | | 法国 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [5][3] Core Views - The company's revenue for 2024 is projected to be 3.4 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4%, while the net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to decline by 18% to 800 million yuan due to a decrease in gross margin and credit impairment provisions of approximately 100 million yuan [1][3][9] - The company has seen a 17% increase in commercial construction revenue, which now accounts for 80% of total revenue, while government construction revenue has decreased by 21% [1][9] - The overall gross margin for 2024 is expected to be 49.6%, down 2.6 percentage points from the previous year, with commercial and government construction margins at 51% and 40%, respectively [1][9] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company is expected to achieve a revenue of 3.4 billion yuan, with a net profit of 800 million yuan, reflecting a decline of 18% [1][3][4] - The gross margin is projected to be 49.6%, with a decrease in both commercial and government construction margins [1][9] Market Position and Expansion - As of the end of 2024, the company operates in 130 cities with a total contracted construction area of 130 million square meters, a 5% year-on-year increase [2][13] - The new signed construction area for 2024 is 36.49 million square meters, with a market share of 22.1%, an increase of 1.7 percentage points from the previous year [2][13] Investment Recommendations - Due to the shrinking demand for government construction and increased competition in the construction industry, revenue and net profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026 have been revised down to 3.6 billion yuan and 3.7 billion yuan, and 800 million yuan for both years, respectively [3][18] - The expected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 and 2026 is 0.41 yuan, with a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 6.7 and 6.5 times [3][18]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [4][18]. Core Views - The company reported a decline in net profit attributable to shareholders by 39%, with operating revenue of 185.2 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 9%. The core net profit, excluding foreign exchange gains and property revaluation, was 15.7 billion yuan, down 34% year-on-year. The decline in net profit is primarily attributed to a decrease in turnover scale and gross profit margin, as well as a decline in fair value gains from investment properties [1][7]. - Despite the challenges, the company achieved a slight increase in sales, focusing on core cities. The total sales amount reached 310.7 billion yuan, a slight increase year-on-year, with a sales area of 11.49 million square meters, down 14% year-on-year. The company maintained the highest market share in first-tier cities, with a focus on quality land reserves, totaling 28.77 million square meters, of which 85% is located in first-tier and strong second-tier cities [10][12]. - The company's financial position remains strong, with a net debt ratio of 29.2% and a cash-to-short-term debt ratio of 3.5 times. The company has reduced its interest-bearing debt to 241.6 billion yuan, maintaining a low asset-liability ratio and net borrowing ratio within the industry. The average financing cost is 3.1%, and the company received a credit rating upgrade to "A-" from S&P Global [2][12]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved operating revenue of 185.2 billion yuan, a decrease of 9% year-on-year. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 15.6 billion yuan, down 39% year-on-year. The core net profit was 15.7 billion yuan, a decline of 34% year-on-year [1][7]. - The company declared a final dividend of 0.30 HKD per share, representing 38% of the net profit attributable to shareholders for the year [1][7]. Sales and Market Position - The company recorded a sales amount of 310.7 billion yuan, a slight increase year-on-year, and ranked first in the industry for equity sales. The sales area was 11.49 million square meters, down 14% year-on-year. The company maintained leading market shares in Beijing, Shanghai, and Shenzhen [10][12]. - The company focused on core cities, with 77% of its new land investments in first-tier cities, totaling 80.6 billion yuan for 22 new land acquisitions [10][12]. Financial Health - As of the end of 2024, the company had an asset-liability ratio of 48.2% and a net debt ratio of 29.2%. The cash-to-short-term debt ratio was 3.5 times, indicating a strong financial position. The company achieved a sales collection of 286.2 billion yuan, with a collection rate of 92.1% [2][12]. - The company’s average financing cost was 3.1%, and it received a credit rating upgrade to "A-" from S&P Global, reflecting a stable outlook [2][12].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company has demonstrated steady growth in revenue and profit, with an increase in gross margin and management efficiency. The project reserves are of high quality, and the company is actively expanding in urban space services. As a leading player in commercial management, the operational efficiency of managed shopping centers and office buildings has improved, maintaining stable profitability. The profit forecasts for 2025-2027 have been raised, with expected net profits of 4.27 billion, 4.89 billion, and 5.50 billion respectively, corresponding to EPS of 1.87, 2.14, and 2.41. The current stock price corresponds to P/E ratios of 17.0, 14.9, and 13.2, thus maintaining the "Buy" rating [6][7][10] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company reported revenue of 17.04 billion, a year-on-year increase of 15.4%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 3.63 billion, up 23.9%, while the core net profit was 3.51 billion, reflecting a 20.1% increase. The improvement in profitability is attributed to a gross margin increase of 1.1 percentage points to 32.9%, and a decrease in expense ratios by 1.0 percentage points. The operating cash ratio increased by 4.4 percentage points to 25.0%, and the ratio of operating net cash flow to core net profit rose by 17.2 percentage points to 121.4%. The dividend per share increased by 31.0% to 0.922, with a special dividend of 0.614, maintaining a 100% distribution of core net profit [7][10] Property Management - The property management segment generated revenue of 6.66 billion, a year-on-year increase of 10.7%, with a gross margin of 14.4%. As of the end of 2024, the company had a contracted area of 302 million square meters and a managed area of 271 million square meters, reflecting an 8.1% year-on-year increase, with 55.6% from related parties [8] Urban Space Services - The urban space service segment reported revenue of 1.82 billion, a significant year-on-year increase of 36.3%, with a gross margin of 12.9%. The managed area in this segment reached 125 million square meters, up 19.8% year-on-year [8] Commercial Management - The commercial management segment, which includes shopping centers, generated revenue of 4.21 billion, a year-on-year increase of 30.0%, with a gross margin of 72.6%. By the end of 2024, the company managed 118 opened projects with a total built area of 12.7 million square meters. The retail sales in shopping centers reached 215 billion, up 18.7%, with a net operating income margin of 65.1% and an occupancy rate of 96.7% [9]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company has demonstrated steady revenue and profit growth, with an increase in gross margin and management efficiency. The project reserves are of high quality, and the company is actively expanding in the urban space sector. As a leading player in commercial management, the operational efficiency of managed shopping centers and office buildings has improved, maintaining stable profitability. The profit forecasts for 2025-2027 have been raised, with expected net profits of 4.27 billion, 4.89 billion, and 5.50 billion yuan respectively, corresponding to EPS of 1.87, 2.14, and 2.41 yuan. The current stock price corresponds to P/E ratios of 17.0, 14.9, and 13.2 times, thus maintaining the "Buy" rating [6][10] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company reported revenue of 17.04 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 15.4%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 3.63 billion yuan, up 23.9% year-on-year, while the core net profit was 3.51 billion yuan, reflecting a 20.1% increase. The improvement in profitability is attributed to a gross margin increase of 1.1 percentage points to 32.9%, and a decrease in expense ratios by 1.0 percentage points. The operating cash ratio increased by 4.4 percentage points to 25.0%, and the ratio of operating net cash flow to core net profit rose by 17.2 percentage points to 121.4%. The dividend per share increased by 31.0% to 0.922 yuan, with a special dividend of 0.614 yuan, maintaining a 100% distribution of core net profit [7] Business Segments - Property Management: Revenue reached 6.66 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.7%, with a gross margin of 14.4%, up 0.4 percentage points. As of the end of 2024, the company had a contracted area of 302 million square meters and a managed area of 271 million square meters, an increase of 8.1% year-on-year, with related party revenue accounting for 55.6% - Non-owner Value-added Services: Revenue was 718 million yuan, down 12.5% year-on-year, with a gross margin of 33.0%, down 1.3 percentage points - Owner Value-added Services: Revenue was 1.52 billion yuan, up 6.3% year-on-year, with a gross margin of 25.6%, down 1.6 percentage points - Urban Space Services: Revenue was 1.82 billion yuan, a significant increase of 36.3% year-on-year, with a gross margin of 12.9%. The managed area increased by 19.8% year-on-year to 125 million square meters [8] Commercial Management - Shopping Centers: Revenue was 4.21 billion yuan, up 30.0% year-on-year, with a gross margin of 72.6%, up 0.7 percentage points. By the end of 2024, the company managed 118 opened projects with a total built area of 12.7 million square meters. The retail sales of shopping centers reached 215 billion yuan, an increase of 18.7% year-on-year, with a NOI margin increase of 0.4 percentage points to 65.1% and an occupancy rate of 96.7% - Office Buildings: Revenue was 2.07 billion yuan, up 7.1% year-on-year, with a gross margin of 34.9%, down 0.7 percentage points. By the end of 2024, the company managed 221 projects with a managed area of 16.69 million square meters, with an overall occupancy rate down 2.7 percentage points to 80.8% [9]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the announcement of the "Top Ten Global Investment Partners" in Shanghai, emphasizing the city's efforts to enhance its investment environment and attract foreign investment through strategic partnerships and innovative approaches [1][3]. Group 1: Global Investment Partner Program - The "Global Investment Partner Program" was initiated in 2021 to strengthen global resource allocation and broaden investment channels, with 40 international institutions recognized as quality representatives for "Invest Shanghai" [3]. - The 2025 Shanghai Global Investment Promotion Conference revealed ten organizations awarded as "Top Ten Global Investment Partners," including Ernst & Young, Sequoia China, and others [3]. Group 2: Confidence in Shanghai's Investment Environment - Ernst & Young's partner highlighted the firm's deep involvement in Shanghai's urban development, showcasing a commitment to enhancing the investment environment [4]. - Shanghai has implemented optimization plans for its business environment for eight consecutive years, aligning with international trade rules and creating a replicable reform model [4][5]. - The World Bank's report indicates that 55% of China's business environment best practices originate from Shanghai, underscoring its leadership in this area [4]. Group 3: Foreign Investment Trends - Foreign enterprises are increasingly confident in Shanghai's investment environment, with many opting to establish regional headquarters and R&D centers in the city [5]. - Shanghai's competitive edge in attracting global investment stems from a combination of factors, including a favorable business environment, forward-looking policies, and a robust industrial ecosystem [5]. - The city is proactively engaging in sectors like artificial intelligence, digital economy, and green development, enhancing its appeal to foreign investors [5]. Group 4: Collaboration and Efficiency - FirstService's CEO noted the impressive cross-departmental collaboration in Shanghai, which has expedited the project approval process for foreign investments [7][8]. - Shanghai's innovative policies, such as the "20 measures to stabilize foreign investment," have facilitated investment convenience and financial openness [8]. - The city aims to integrate global resources and enhance its resilience and innovation through strategic directions like global connectivity and green transformation [8].

Group 1: Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3370.02 points with a slight increase of 0.15% [2] - The Shenzhen Component Index closed at 10695.48 points, up by 0.07% [2] - The total trading volume across the markets reached approximately 5867.45 billion yuan [2] Group 2: Industry Insights - The social service industry is seeing a positive outlook with Huazhu Group's 2025 guidance indicating stable or recovering RevPAR, planning to open 2300 new hotels [11] - The public utility and environmental protection sector reported a 1.3% year-on-year increase in total electricity consumption, amounting to 1.56 trillion kWh [14] - The household appliance sector experienced a 10% growth in retail and export in January-February, with air conditioning production expected to rise over 10% in April [25][27] Group 3: Company Performance - E-Hang Intelligent reported a 190% year-on-year revenue growth in the fourth quarter, indicating promising commercial operations [5] - Tencent Holdings is highlighted for its deep dive into AI applications and IP development, maintaining a positive long-term outlook [5] - The financial performance of Mingchuang Youpin showed a 22.8% increase in annual revenue for 2024, with improving profitability in overseas markets [5] Group 4: Investment Strategies - The public utility sector is recommended for investment, particularly in large thermal power companies and renewable energy leaders [16] - The automotive industry is advised to focus on companies like Li Auto, which is advancing its next-generation autonomous driving architecture [29] - The media and internet sector is encouraged to explore opportunities in AI applications and high-demand IP sectors, with specific recommendations for companies like Pop Mart [20]

贝壳上涨2.18%，报21.09美元/股，总市值254.61亿 美元 3月24日，贝壳(BEKE)盘中上涨2.18%，截至21:43，报21.09美元/股，成交2929.72万美元，总市值 254.61亿美元。 财务数据显示，截至2024年09月30日，贝壳收入总额623.32亿人民币，同比增长8.27%；归母净利润 34.95亿人民币，同比减少32.97%。 作者：行情君 3月18日，贝壳将于(美东)盘前披露2024财年年报（数据来源于纳斯达克官网，预计披露日期为美国当 地时间，实际披露日期以公司公告为准）。 资料显示，贝壳控股有限公司是领先的线上线下一体化的房产交易和服务平台。公司率先在中国打造了 平台基础设施和标准,致力于重塑服务者作业模式,从而更高效地为消费者提供二手房和新房交易、房屋 租赁、家装家居及其他房产交易及居住服务。公司相信与平台参与者线上线下的积极互动,能够加深公 司对平台参与者的了解并为其提供更好的服务。公司拥有并经营着链家,中国领先的房产经纪品牌,同时 也是贝壳平台的重要组成部分。公司认为,链家的成功和沉淀为公司的基础建设和标准打造铺平道路,并 推动贝壳快速持续发展。自2001年链家成 ...