——现货磨底 第一章 核心矛盾及策略建议 1.1 核心矛盾 当前影响尿素走势的核心矛盾有以下几点：一是季节性的需求淡季，二是出口预期的结束。我们认为尿 素或维持震荡走势。我们可以看到，近期尿素价格走势和现货情况呈现了高度的相关性，后期需要关注现货 成交情况。 ∗ 近端交易逻辑 尿素现货日产销与尿素期货收盘价 source： 南华研究,同花顺 元/吨 尿素平均产销(右轴) 尿素期货主力合约收盘价 23/12 24/04 24/08 24/12 25/04 25/08 1 2 3 1600 1800 2000 2200 2400 尿素山东产销季节性 source： 南华研究 2023 2024 2025 03/01 05/01 07/01 09/01 11/01 0 2 4 6 虽然尿素增设了交割库，但最便宜可交割品地点仍为河南与山东。考虑到01合约出口预期消失，1-5月差走反 套。由于01合约还有秋季肥预期，尿素01合约仍有升水。 南华期货尿素产业周报 * 远端交易预期 截止本周国内尿素日产20.01万吨，下周潞安大颗粒、赤天化装置陆续恢复，金象装置检修，天泽检修计划或 有推迟，预计下周国内尿素日产量继续小幅提 ...

研究员：林静宜 期货从业资格号F03139610 期货投资咨询证书号Z0021558 关 注 我 们 获 取 更 多 资 讯 业务咨询 添加客服 目录 1、周度要点小结 2、期现市场 3、产业链分析 瑞达期货研究院 「 2025.09.26」 尿素市场周报 尿素期货价格走势 郑州尿素期货价格走势 • 本周郑州尿素主力合约价格震荡收涨，周度+0.48%。 「 周度要点小结」 策略建议： UR2601合约短线预计在1650-1700区间波动。 3 行情回顾：本周国内尿素市场继续下探，截止本周四山东中小颗粒主流出厂下跌至1560-1620元/ 吨，均价环比下跌35元/吨。 行情展望：近期部分停车装置恢复，国内尿素日产量增加，本周暂无企业计划停车，2-5家停车企 业恢复生产，考虑到短时的企业故障发生，产量可能小幅波动。国内农业需求较为零散，局部农 业需求或有小幅提升，对尿素市场支撑有限。工业需求较为平稳，其中复合肥秋季肥生产进入后 期，华北大部需求转淡，企业减负荷停车或进一步增多，预计复合肥产能利用率维持小幅下降态 势。国庆长假的临近，尿素工厂陆续启动国庆收单，主产销区主力工厂率先下调报价，以此来刺 激下游接货。近期 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the implementation of a work plan by seven government departments to stabilize and optimize the petrochemical industry in China from 2025 to 2026, focusing on innovation, investment, market demand, development carriers, and international cooperation [1][2]. Group 1: Industry Growth and Innovation - The petrochemical industry is expected to achieve an average annual growth of over 5% in value added from 2025 to 2026, with improved economic benefits and enhanced technological innovation capabilities [1]. - Emphasis is placed on supporting key products such as electronic chemicals and high-end polyolefins, as well as upgrading bulk products like coatings [1]. Group 2: Investment and Capacity Control - The plan includes strict control over new refining capacity and a scientific approach to the release of new capacities for ethylene and paraxylene, aiming to prevent overcapacity risks in the coal-to-methanol industry [1]. - There will be a push for the renovation and upgrading of outdated facilities, alongside the implementation of AI in the petrochemical sector [1]. Group 3: Market Demand Expansion - The strategy aims to tap into consumption potential in traditional sectors like construction and automotive, while also fostering new applications in emerging fields such as renewable energy and low-altitude economy [2]. - The integration of domestic and foreign trade is highlighted as a key focus area [2]. Group 4: Development Carriers and Competitiveness - The plan includes evaluating the competitiveness and intelligence levels of chemical parks, guiding them to improve and focus on strengthening industrial chains [2]. - The goal is to cultivate advanced manufacturing clusters and characteristic industries among small and medium enterprises [2]. Group 5: Open Cooperation and International Standards - The work plan emphasizes the importance of stabilizing foreign trade policies and advancing overseas resource development through joint ventures [2]. - There is a focus on enhancing cooperation in fields such as fine chemicals, green low-carbon technologies, and artificial intelligence, along with improving standards and product certification systems to align with international practices [2].

Group 1: Core Business Development - New Yangfeng Agricultural Technology Co., Ltd. has established a strong presence in Xinjiang, focusing on the integration of "base + product + technology" to support agricultural development and promote unity among ethnic groups [1][2] - The company has expanded its production capacity with a base in Changji, achieving an annual output value of approximately 350 million yuan, while also creating over 100 local jobs [2] - A new project in Aksu, with an expected annual output of 600,000 tons of specialized fertilizers, aims to cover 60 million mu of farmland in southern Xinjiang, fostering a cycle of corporate growth and regional prosperity [2] Group 2: Product Customization - New Yangfeng tailors its products to meet the specific agricultural needs of Xinjiang, addressing challenges such as drought and soil salinization [3] - The company has developed water-soluble fertilizers that have increased cotton yields by 20-30 kg per mu for local farmers, enhancing nutrient absorption and fruiting rates [3] - A collaborative project with the Xinjiang Water Resources Department focuses on improving cotton growth through innovative liquid fertilizers, contributing to sustainable agricultural practices [3] Group 3: Technical Services and Training - New Yangfeng has established a team of agronomists to provide hands-on training and support to local farmers, conducting over 300 training sessions in the past five years [4] - The company has successfully implemented its products in various regions, leading to significant improvements in crop yield and quality, fostering trust and emotional connection with the farmers [4] - The initiatives have not only enhanced agricultural productivity but also contributed to the economic development of the region, embodying the vision of "industrial prosperity, ethnic unity, and shared growth" [4]

近一年中国矿物肥料及化肥进口情况统计图 数据来源：中国海关，智研咨询整理 相关报告：智研咨询发布的《2025-2031年中国化肥行业市场研究分析及前景战略研判报告》 根据中国海关数据显示：2025年7月中国矿物肥料及化肥进口数量为68万吨，同比下降20%，进口金额 为2.47亿美元，同比下降14.6%，2025年7月中国矿物肥料及化肥出口数量为570万吨，同比增长86.5%， 出口金额为20.8亿美元，同比增长135.1%。 近一年中国矿物肥料及化肥出口情况统计图 数据来源：中国海关，智研咨询整理 知前沿，问智研。智研咨询是中国一流产业咨询机构，十数年持续深耕产业研究领域，提供深度产业研 究报告、商业计划书、可行性研究报告及定制服务等一站式产业咨询服务。专业的角度、品质化的服 务、敏锐的市场洞察力，专注于提供完善的产业解决方案，为您的投资决策赋能。 ...

中化新网讯 近日，山东能源新疆能化新疆煤化工有限责任公司(简称新疆煤化)首批尿素出口订单发运， 总计1.7万吨产品正式启航海外，标志着新疆煤化工成功进入国际尿素贸易市场。 本次出口业务的成功，不仅验证了新疆煤化在产销协同、储运联动方面的体系能力，也为该企业进一步 拓展海外市场积累了宝贵经验。未来，新疆煤化将以更加开放的姿态，积极参与国际竞争，通过灵活应 对机制应对市场变化，持续优化管理，不断提升产品国际竞争力。 在生产环节，新疆煤化严格按照国际标准和技术协议要求，精细调控工艺参数，使尿素产品符合出口要 求。质量检测中心实施多频次监控，为产品质量提供坚实数据支撑，实现出厂产品零投诉。 在储运方面，公司科学规划库容，实行出口产品专区管理，严格执行先进先出原则，防止产品污染与受 潮。同时，建立全程监装和专人跟踪机制，实时掌握发运状态，及时应对突发状况，保障货物按时集 港、无缝对接国际市场。 面对国际贸易中的诸多挑战，新疆煤化通过建立跨部门协同机制，实现从生产、仓储到运输各环节的高 效衔接。与铁路、港口等单位的紧密配合，不仅保障了运力资源的稳定供应，也展现出快速响应国际市 场需求的综合能力。 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral; - Inter - period: After the export window period, conduct a reverse spread on UR01 - 05 when the price is high; - Inter - variety: None [3] Core Viewpoints - The domestic urea spot market has manufacturers reducing prices to attract orders. After the spot price fell below the previous low, the trading volume improved, but the sustainability was insufficient. The spot price fluctuated weakly. Attention should be paid to the order - receiving sentiment before the festival. - The domestic demand is weak. The inventory in urea factories continues to accumulate, mainly in Inner Mongolia. The start - up time of demand in Northeast China should be followed up. - Urea production remains at a high level. In the medium and long term, the supply and demand of urea are still relatively loose. - The export side still has a great impact on the sentiment of urea prices. The export window period in September is ongoing, and the export rhythm is accelerating. The port inventory is decreasing. The export volume in September is still expected. Attention should be paid to the resonance period of the increase in export speed and the improvement of domestic demand [2] Summary by Related Catalogs Urea Basis Structure - The report presents the market prices of small - granular urea in Shandong and Henan, the basis of Shandong and Henan main - continuous contracts, the price of the urea main - continuous contract, and the 1 - 5, 5 - 9, and 9 - 1 spreads [7][8][16][18] Urea Production - The report shows the weekly urea production and the loss of urea plant maintenance [21][24] Urea Production Profit and Operating Rate - The report includes the production cost, spot production profit, and coal - based and gas - based production capacity utilization rates [25][26][30] Urea Foreign Market Price and Export Profit - The report presents the FOB prices of small - granular urea in the Baltic Sea and large - granular urea in Southeast Asia, the FOB and CFR prices of small - and large - granular urea in China, the price differences between them, and the export profit and the disk export profit [32][34][40][42][45] Urea Downstream Operating Rate and Orders - The report shows the operating rates of compound fertilizer and melamine, and the number of days of pending orders [51][52][53] Urea Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - The report presents the upstream factory inventory, port inventory, the raw material inventory days of urea downstream manufacturers in Hebei, futures warehouse receipts, the position volume, and trading volume of the main contract [56][59][62]

Group 1 - The fertilizer sector is experiencing a volatile rebound, with LuHua Technology hitting the daily limit up [1] - Other companies such as ChuanJinNuo, XinYangFeng, HuaLu HengSheng, LuXi Chemical, XingFa Group, and ChiTianHua are also seeing gains [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral; Inter - term: After the export window period, conduct anti - arbitrage on UR01 - 05 when it reaches a high; Inter - variety: None [3] Core Viewpoints - The domestic urea spot market has manufacturers reducing prices to attract orders. After the spot price breaks through the previous low, the transaction improves but the sustainability is insufficient. The spot price fluctuates weakly. With the rebound of the futures price, the transaction improves. Attention should be paid to the sentiment of order collection before the festival. The domestic demand is weak, the inventory in urea plants continues to accumulate, mainly in Inner Mongolia. The urea production remains at a high level, and the medium - and long - term supply and demand of urea are still relatively loose. The export side still has a great impact on the sentiment of urea prices. The export window period in September is conducive to continuous exports, and the port inventory is decreasing. Attention should be paid to the resonance period of the increase in export speed and the improvement of domestic demand [2] Summary by Related Catalogs Urea Basis Structure - The report provides information on the market prices of small - particle urea in Shandong and Henan, the basis of Shandong and Henan main - continuous contracts, the price of the urea main - continuous contract, and the 1 - 5, 5 - 9, 9 - 1 spreads, with data sources from Flush and Huatai Futures Research Institute [7][8][9] Urea Production - The report shows the weekly urea production and the loss of urea plant maintenance, with data sources from Flush and Huatai Futures Research Institute [20][26] Urea Production Profit and Operating Rate - It presents the production cost, spot production profit, futures production profit, national capacity utilization rate, coal - based capacity utilization rate, and gas - based capacity utilization rate, with data sources from Flush and Huatai Futures Research Institute [26][27][29] Urea FOB Price and Export Profit - The report includes the FOB prices of small - particle urea in the Baltic Sea, the CFR price of large - particle urea in Southeast Asia, the FOB price of small - particle urea in China, the CFR price of large - particle urea in China, the difference between the FOB prices of small - particle urea in the Baltic Sea and China, the difference between the CFR price of large - particle urea in Southeast Asia and the FOB price in China, the urea export profit, and the futures export profit, with data sources from Flush and Huatai Futures Research Institute [32][33][37] Urea Downstream Operating Rate and Orders - It shows the operating rates of compound fertilizer and melamine, the number of days of pending orders, and the number of days of raw material inventory of urea downstream manufacturers in Hebei, with data sources from Flush and Huatai Futures Research Institute [53][48][54] Urea Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - The report provides information on the upstream in - plant inventory, port inventory, futures warehouse receipts, the holding volume of the main contract, and the trading volume of the main contract, with data sources from Flush and Huatai Futures Research Institute [51][54][57] Market Analysis - **Price and Basis**: On September 24, 2025, the closing price of the urea main contract was 1,673 yuan/ton (+15). The ex - factory price of small - particle urea in Henan was 1,610 yuan/ton (0), in Shandong was 1,610 yuan/ton (+0), and in Jiangsu was 1,620 yuan/ton (+0). The price of small anthracite was 750 yuan/ton (+0). The basis in Shandong was - 63 yuan/ton (-15), in Henan was - 63 yuan/ton (-25), and in Jiangsu was - 53 yuan/ton (-15). The urea production profit was 80 yuan/ton (+0), and the export profit was 1,149 yuan/ton (+9) [1] - **Supply Side**: As of September 24, 2025, the enterprise capacity utilization rate was 81.21% (+0.08%). The total inventory of sample enterprises was 1.2182 million tons (+52,900 tons), and the inventory of port samples was 516,000 tons (-33,400 tons) [1] - **Demand Side**: As of September 24, 2025, the capacity utilization rate of compound fertilizer was 38.63% (+0.81%), the capacity utilization rate of melamine was 56.78% (+1.40%), and the number of days of advance orders of urea enterprises was 6.71 days (+0.53) [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the successful integration of party-building initiatives with agricultural support and sales strategies by Jinan 46 Station, leading to increased agricultural productivity and sales growth [1][2][5]. Group 1: Party-Building Initiatives - Jinan 46 Station, under the leadership of manager Shi Chuanmeng, has established a close cooperation with local party branches to address farmers' needs through joint activities [2]. - The collaboration includes organizing theme party days and agricultural technology training, which enhances communication between the company and farmers, fostering trust and service delivery [2]. Group 2: Tailored Services for Farmers - The company has developed customized services based on local soil characteristics and crop fertilization cycles, offering high-quality fertilizers suited to local conditions [3]. - Delivery services are provided to solve transportation issues for farmers, ensuring that fertilizers reach the fields efficiently [3]. - The company has engaged over 50 large-scale farmers, supplying them with specific fertilizers for economic crops and staple crops, thus implementing a demand-driven supply model [3]. Group 3: Innovative Sales Models - To enhance sales efficiency and brand influence, Jinan 46 Station has introduced a "multi-channel + empirical" sales model [4]. - Offline channels have been expanded by promoting fertilizer products at fuel stations, creating a one-stop service for farmers [4]. - Online marketing efforts utilize platforms like WeChat and Douyin to frequently inform farmers about product features and usage [4]. - The company emphasizes brand trust by explaining the strategic partnership between Sinochem and China National Petroleum, and by conducting field trials to demonstrate product advantages [4]. Group 4: Sales Achievements and Future Plans - The implementation of party-building initiatives has resulted in significant sales, with over 15 tons of water-soluble fertilizers and 300 tons of compound fertilizers sold, generating over 1 million yuan in revenue [5]. - The quality of fertilizers and services has contributed to increased agricultural yields, positioning the company as a key player in rural revitalization efforts [5]. - Future plans include deepening party-building initiatives and exploring new service models to further support agriculture and rural development [5].