研究员：吴志桥 从业资格：F3085283 交易咨询资格：Z0019267 联系方式：15000295386 Morning session notice 早盘提示 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2025 年 9 月 5 日星期五 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 【行情复盘】 | 周四夜盘甲醇主力合约期货价格上涨 | 28 | 元至 | 2408 | 元/吨，华东主流地区甲醇现货价 | | | | | | | | | | | 格下跌 | 8 | 元/吨至 | 2245 | 元/吨。持仓方面，多头持仓增加 | 5719 | 手至 | 46.39 | 万手，空 | 头持仓增加 | 2745 | 手至 | 55.9 | 万手。 | | | 【重要资讯】 | 1、供应方面，国内甲醇开工率 | 86.6%，环 ...

Report Date - The report date is September 5, 2025 [1] Core Views - The ADP employment in the US in August was lower than expected, but the market reaction was muted, and the US dollar continued to fluctuate [2][20] - The A-share market experienced a significant adjustment, and short - term adjustment thinking is recommended [3][23] - The central bank will conduct a 100 - billion - yuan outright reverse repurchase operation, and the bond market is cautious, with insufficient upward momentum [4][32] - After the military parade, coal mines are gradually resuming production, and the coking coal and coke market will be mainly in a volatile trend in the short term [5][56] - Macro factors strongly support copper prices in the short term, and copper prices are likely to continue to be volatile and relatively strong [6][78] - The fundamentals of US natural gas have marginally improved in the short term, but the medium - term downward trend remains [7][85] Financial News and Comments Macro Strategy (Gold) - The US officially implemented the US - Japan trade agreement, and Japan plans to increase US rice purchases by 75% [14] - The US ISM non - manufacturing PMI in August was 52, higher than expected [15] - The US ADP employment in August increased by 54,000, slightly lower than expected, indicating a cooling employment market. Gold price fluctuations may increase [16] - Investment advice: In the short term, the multi - empty game near the historical high of gold prices intensifies, and the volatility increases [17] Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - The New York Fed President predicted that interest rate cuts would be appropriate in the future, and the US Department of Justice launched a criminal investigation into Fed Governor Lisa Cook [18] - The US ADP employment in August was lower than expected, but the market reaction was muted, and the US dollar continued to fluctuate. Short - term investment advice: The US dollar will remain volatile [20][21] Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - The A - share market was significantly adjusted, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 1.25%, the Shenzhen Component Index down 2.83%, and the ChiNext Index down 4.25%. The market volume decreased, and the over - valuation pressure was released. Short - term investment advice: Reduce long positions in stock index futures or increase the hedging ratio [22][23][24] Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - Stephen Miran emphasized the independence of the Fed, and Fed Williams said that interest rate cuts would be appropriate in the future. The US ADP employment data in August was lower than expected, but the market risk appetite remained high. Investment advice: The US stock market will be volatile and relatively strong under the expectation of interest rate cuts [25][26][30] Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - The central bank will conduct a 100 - billion - yuan outright reverse repurchase operation. The bond market is worried about the strength of the stock market, with insufficient upward momentum. Investment advice: Long positions can be held, but do not chase the high [31][32][33] Commodity News and Comments Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - Brazil exported 9.34 million tons of soybeans in August, an increase of 16% year - on - year, and is expected to export 6.75 million tons in September. The weekly export sales report of the US will be released on Friday. Investment advice: The futures price will be mainly volatile, and continue to pay attention to the weather in US soybean - producing areas and Sino - US relations [35][36][37] Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - The estimated production of Malaysian palm oil in August increased by 2.07% month - on - month. The market is waiting for MPOB and USDA data. Investment advice: In the short term, it will continue to be volatile, and the view of going long at low prices in the medium - long term remains unchanged [38] Agricultural Products (Corn Starch) - The consumption of corn and corn starch in starch sugar products decreased this week. The opening rate and inventory of starch enterprises both decreased, but the supply - demand situation remained weak. Investment advice: The difference between futures and spot prices is at a low level, and the further weakening space is expected to be small [39] Agricultural Products (Corn) - The deep - processing demand for corn increased slightly this week, and the inventory continued to decline. The price is expected to be volatile before the production - determination survey and may decline after that. Investment advice: Pay attention to the opportunity of shorting at high prices [40][41][42] Agricultural Products (Cotton) - The cotton planting area in India decreased slightly year - on - year. The export orders of Indian cotton products decreased, and the government may purchase a record amount of cotton. The external market is in a weak pattern. Investment advice: The Zhengzhou cotton futures will be mainly volatile, and the market is not optimistic during the new cotton listing period [43][45][47] Agricultural Products (Red Dates) - The price of red dates in the Hebei Cui'erzhuang market decreased. The futures price decreased significantly, and the short - term downward trend may continue. Investment advice: Be cautious about entering the market and pay attention to the weather in the producing areas [47][48] Black Metals (Steam Coal) - Japan's coal imports in July increased. The coal price continued its seasonal weakness, and the price may decline faster after the military parade, but it is expected to be supported at around 750 yuan [49] Black Metals (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - Indonesia launched an anti - dumping investigation into Wuhan Iron and Steel Group's hot - rolled coils. The inventory of five major steel products increased this week, and the demand was weak. Investment advice: The steel price will be volatile in the short term, and pay attention to the release of demand [50][51][52] Black Metals (Iron Ore) - The first blasting at the North Pit of the Iron Valley Mine in Australia was successful. The iron ore price is in a volatile market, and it is supported in the short term but may face pressure in the future. Investment advice: Pay attention to the pressure on finished products and molten iron in 2 - 3 weeks [53] Agricultural Products (Pigs) - Tangrenshen expects the sow capacity utilization rate to reach over 90% by the end of the year. The short - term spot price lacks a significant upward driver, and the supply in the second half of the year remains loose. Investment advice: Treat the November contract with an interval thinking, and wait for a good opportunity to go long on the January and May contracts [55] Black Metals (Coking Coal/Coke) - Coal mines are gradually resuming production after the military parade. The supply is stable in the short term, but the demand side is under pressure. Investment advice: The market will be mainly volatile without policy influence in the short term [56][57] Non - Ferrous Metals (Polysilicon) - The government issued a plan for the stable growth of the electronic information manufacturing industry. The production of polysilicon in September may increase, and the downstream inventory is relatively abundant. Investment advice: When the futures price falls below the spot price, the cost - performance of betting on subsequent policies increases. The price is expected to be between 48,000 - 55,000 yuan/ton [58][59][61] Non - Ferrous Metals (Industrial Silicon) - The social inventory of industrial silicon decreased slightly. The resumption of production of large factories in Xinjiang is slower than expected. Investment advice: The price will be between 8,200 - 9,200 yuan/ton in the short term, and pay attention to interval trading opportunities [62][63] Non - Ferrous Metals (Lead) - The LME lead inventory is at a high level seasonally, and the domestic supply may tighten while the demand may improve. Investment advice: It is recommended to wait and see, and pay attention to the opportunity of domestic - foreign anti - arbitrage [64][65] Non - Ferrous Metals (Zinc) - The LME zinc inventory is at a low level, and the domestic social inventory increased. The short - term macro environment is positive for zinc prices. Investment advice: It is recommended to wait and see for unilateral trading, pay attention to the medium - term positive arbitrage opportunity, and maintain the positive arbitrage idea before the overseas inventory bottoms out [67][68] Non - Ferrous Metals (Nickel) - The LME nickel inventory increased. The price of nickel ore is firm, and the price of nickel iron is expected to be strong. Investment advice: The nickel price is likely to be range - bound, and it is more cost - effective to go long at the low end of the range [69][70][71] Non - Ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - Kodal Minerals obtained an export license for lithium concentrate. The supply may tighten in September, and the fundamentals support the price. Investment advice: Pay attention to the opportunity of going long after the warehouse receipt peaks and the basis strengthens, and also pay attention to the positive arbitrage opportunity [72][73] Non - Ferrous Metals (Copper) - The International Copper Association became an official observer of the Basel Convention. Freeport McMoRan is promoting expansion projects and calling for US incentives. Macro factors support copper prices in the short term. Investment advice: It is recommended to take a long - biased approach for unilateral trading and wait and see for arbitrage [74][75][79] Energy Chemicals (Liquefied Petroleum Gas) - The weekly commodity volume of domestic liquefied petroleum gas decreased, and the inventory increased. Investment advice: The market will be mainly volatile in the short term [80][81][82] Energy Chemicals (Carbon Emissions) - The CEA price in the carbon market decreased slightly, and the trading volume increased. The supply - demand structure is balanced and loose this year. Investment advice: The CEA price will be volatile and weak in the short term [83][84] Energy Chemicals (Natural Gas) - The US natural gas inventory increased by 55 Bcf week - on - week. The short - term fundamentals have improved marginally, but the medium - term downward trend remains. Investment advice: The gas price will be in a volatile adjustment in the short term [85][86][87] Energy Chemicals (PX) - The PX price decreased, and the load of domestic and overseas PX changed little. Investment advice: The unilateral price will be volatile in the short term, and pay attention to the 11 - 1 positive arbitrage opportunity [88][89][90] Energy Chemicals (PTA) - The terminal weaving load did not continue to increase, and the new orders were insufficient. The PTA supply decreased recently, but there is an expectation of new device production in October. Investment advice: It will be in a short - term volatile adjustment [91][92][93] Energy Chemicals (Caustic Soda) - The price of liquid caustic soda in Shandong increased locally. The supply and demand situation is different in different regions. Investment advice: The spot price may stop rising and fall, and the futures price will be volatile and weak [94][95] Energy Chemicals (Pulp) - The import pulp spot market was generally stable. The fundamentals of pulp are not good. Investment advice: The market will be volatile and weak [96][97] Energy Chemicals (PVC) - The PVC powder market price was stable with a slight decline. The fundamentals are under pressure in the short term, but the downward space is limited. Investment advice: The Indian anti - dumping may have a negative impact, but the downward space is limited [98] Energy Chemicals (Styrene) - The capacity utilization rate of styrene downstream industries changed this week. The short - term inventory pressure may slow down, but the Q4 outlook is weak. Investment advice: The short - term inventory pressure may ease marginally, but the Q4 outlook is weak, and pay attention to the policy variables [100] Energy Chemicals (Bottle Chips) - The export price of bottle chips decreased slightly, and the low - price transactions increased. The industry maintains a 20% production reduction target, and the downstream demand is transitioning to the off - season. Investment advice: The absolute price follows the polyester raw materials, and the processing fee is under pressure [101][102] Energy Chemicals (Soda Ash) - The inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers decreased this week. The supply is relatively loose in the short term. Investment advice: Adopt the idea of shorting at high prices and pay attention to the supply - side disturbances [103][104] Energy Chemicals (Float Glass) - The price of float glass in Hubei remained unchanged. The market lacks a strong driver, and the cost provides weak support. Investment advice: Be cautious about unilateral operations, and focus on arbitrage operations, such as going long on glass and shorting soda ash when the price difference expands [105] Shipping Index (Container Freight Rate) - Maersk announced a suspension plan during the Chinese Golden Week. The current shipping capacity is under pressure, and the freight rate is in a downward trend. Investment advice: Treat the market with a volatile thinking, pay attention to the shorting opportunity after the emotional increase in October and the long - buying value after the increase in December is reversed [106][107][108]

根据市场公开信息及9月4日披露的机构调研信息，知名私募大朴资产近期对3家上市公司进行了调研， 相关名单如下： 以上内容为证券之星据公开信息整理，由AI算法生成（网信算备310104345710301240019号），不构成投资建议。 3）伟创电气 （大朴资产参与公司特定对象调研&电话会议&策略会） 调研纪要：2025年上半年，公司实现营业收入8.97亿元，同比增长16.39%；净利润1.41亿元，同比增长 4.87%。变频器、伺服系统及控制系统、数字能源产品三大板块稳健增长。公司深度布局机器人产业 链，提供人形、协作、移动机器人核心零部件及解决方案。绿色能源方面，布局光储、电池检测及绿电 制氢产品，推动零碳智慧能源方案。港口领域实现RTG混合动力与电池转场技术突破。股权激励股份来 源于定向发行或二级市场回购。未来将持续投入研发，优化销售费用，提升协同效应。 机构简介： 上海大朴资产管理有限公司，创立于2012年1月。大朴资产的投资团队均来自于国内知名的证券研究机 构和投资机构，具有丰富的研究和投资经验。团队专注于中国证券市场的投资和研究，并保持主动管 理、稳中求进的投资风格。公司秉持规范经营和专业投资的理念， ...

平台联动，汇聚资源推动产业升级。园区商会作为"统战+商会"模式的关键载体，拓展合作网络，搭建 高能级资源平台。在"产学研用"方面，园区携手中国化工协会、南京工业大学、江苏环保集团等单位， 开展绿色工艺、安全生产、环保技术等精准帮扶，推动产业链优化升级。商会举办"资本赋能高质量发 展"专题研修，邀请交易所、券商、律所等专家为企业提供上市辅导。此外，园区还在上海举办投资交 流暨签约活动，集中推介发展环境，显著提升区域影响力。围绕绿色转型，商会组织开展ESG专题培 训，引导企业将环境、社会、治理理念融入发展策略，提升可持续竞争力。 "汇聚统一战线强大合力，为化工产业绿色、零碳、可持续、高质量发展持续赋能，在新征程中展现统 战新作为。"宿迁生态化工科技产业园将继续优化"统战+商会"双轮驱动机制，强化政治引领，精准回应 企业需求，不断优化营商环境；充分发挥商会枢纽作用，广泛链接科技、人才、资本等优质资源；积极 探索"统战+产业链党建"等创新机制，更深层次融入产业生态建设，奋力打造化工产业统战工作高质量 发展标杆。 李爱军 新的形势下，宿迁生态化工科技产业园创新推行"统战+商会"双轮驱动模式，将其作为推动化工产业链 高质 ...

9月5日到8日，由重庆市人民政府、天津市人民政府共同主办的2025世界智能产业博览会将在重庆举 行。本届博览会以人工智能为主线，聚焦"人工智能+"和"智能网联新能源汽车"年度主题，汇聚全球精 英，围绕智能产业核心议题，共谋产业发展新路径。 2024年4月，习近平总书记在重庆考察时强调："加快传统产业转型升级，积极培育具有国际先进水平和 竞争力的战略性新兴产业""加强重大科技攻关，强化科技创新和产业创新深度融合"。 深入贯彻落实习近平总书记重要指示精神，重庆紧紧围绕"33618"现代制造业集群体系，依托"数字重 庆"建设打造的数字底座、超大城市治理提供的丰富场景和扎实的制造业基础，以人工智能和制造业深 度融合为主线，突出"四侧"协同，推动"四链"融合，创新构建"产业大脑+未来工厂"模式，加快推动人 工智能赋能制造业高质量、集群化发展。 推动融合发展 人工智能特色产业集群加速壮大 长安汽车自主研发天枢大模型，实现智能座舱车内功能AI渗透率100%；赛力斯引入华为乾崑ADS智驾 系统，推动问界系列车型成为国产智能驾驶的重要产品。 今年1—7月，重庆新能源汽车产量达58.6万辆，同比增长26.8%。以新能源汽车为代表 ...

9月5日到8日，由重庆市人民政府、天津市人民政府共同主办的2025世界智能产业博览会将在重庆举 行。本届博览会以人工智能为主线，聚焦"人工智能+"和"智能网联新能源汽车"年度主题，汇聚全球精 英，围绕智能产业核心议题，共谋产业发展新路径。 2024年4月，习近平总书记在重庆考察时强调："加快传统产业转型升级，积极培育具有国际先进水平和 竞争力的战略性新兴产业""加强重大科技攻关，强化科技创新和产业创新深度融合"。 深入贯彻落实习近平总书记重要指示精神，重庆紧紧围绕"33618"现代制造业集群体系，依托"数字重 庆"建设打造的数字底座、超大城市治理提供的丰富场景和扎实的制造业基础，以人工智能和制造业深 度融合为主线，突出"四侧"协同，推动"四链"融合，创新构建"产业大脑+未来工厂"模式，加快推动人 工智能赋能制造业高质量、集群化发展。 推动融合发展 人工智能特色产业集群加速壮大 重庆积极构建"产业大脑+未来工厂"模式，赋能制造业加速数智转型。推进大型企业迭代升级研发创 新、中试验证、工艺优化、生产制造、运营管理、安全生产等全流程环节，推动行业大模型畅联产线数 据、赋能迭代升级。 产业链上下游组织生产模式在重庆加 ...

聚对苯二甲酸1,4-环己烷二甲醇酯 （PCT) 及其共聚物 (PCTG) 树脂 ，是一种具有出色透明度、良好韧性和加工性能的环保型材料。其透明度可与玻 璃相媲美，同时具备优异的耐候性、耐化学性和热成型性能，能在较宽的温度范围内保持稳定的物理性能。 在包装领域， PCTG材料制成的容器可清晰展示内容物，提升产品吸引力，且其良好的阻隔性能有助于延长产品保质期，广泛应用于食品包装、化妆 品包装以及饮料瓶等产品。 在消费品领域 ，PCTG可用于制造各类家居用品、电子产品外壳等，为产品赋予时尚外观和耐用性能。随着全球环保意识 的不断提高， PCTG作为一种可回收利用的环保材料 ，符合可持续发展的市场趋势，市场需求正呈现快速增长态势。 因其众多性能优势，PCTG早已引起了行业的广泛关注。然而目前产业化的技术，仍然被 韩国 SK 化学和美国 EASTMAN 公司高度垄断 。我国PCT 研究起步晚，2008年以来才有突破，长期处于进口依赖状态。 而 山东道恩股份 23年与浙江合复共同出资2亿元设立了合资公司 山东道恩合复新材料有限公司 ，专门负责 共聚酯材料项目，包含高温聚酯（PCT） 项目、共聚酯（PETG/PCTG）项目 ...

中国特色金融发展之路强调"有效市场+有为政府"的动态平衡：一方面"稳市场、防疯牛"，另一方面通 过并购重组、注册制深化、引长钱入市等举措夯实资本市场功能。这一顶层设计，使股市与宏观政策形 成正反馈。 1）行情脉络 自2024年开年反转以来，A股与港股"你方唱罢我登场"。一季度港股先行企稳，互联网带动科技行情； 二季度新消费与创新药接棒；至2025年6月底，AH溢价压缩至约120的近年低位。进入7—8月，A股延 续强势，港股则受流动性趋紧与平台经济补贴战拖累，阶段性落后。 2）资金面变化正在修复 今年4—5月间，金管局被动投放流动性、HIBOR一度压至"零附近"；6月下旬起回收过剩流动性，8月 HIBOR快速上行至约4%。目前港币已脱离7.85弱方保证，HIBOR与SOFR隔夜利差回落至约0.36%的常 态区间，意味着进一步大幅收紧的概率不高，资金环境的最紧时刻大概率已过。 3）基本面：下修接近尾声，四季度望换挡 恒指2025年EPS一致预期自7月初的6.7%下修至8月末的2.35%，主因平台经济利润预期下调与"外卖内 卷"。但港股通成分中，原材料、医疗保健等行业的盈利预期已明显上调；叠加监管层对不正当竞争的 ...

2025 年 09 月 04 日 策略日报（2025.09.04）：轮动下的高低切 相关研究报告 <<策略日报（2025.09.03）：退潮>>- -2025-09-03 <<策略日报（2025.09.02）：关注商品 市场的变盘机会>>--2025-09-03 <<策略日报（2025.09.01）：情绪退 潮，风格轮动>>--2025-09-01 证券分析师：张冬冬 A 股：市场全天震荡下跌，创业板指跌超 4%。今日市场成交额 2.58 万亿，个股呈现普跌态势，超 2900 只个股下跌，市场延续调整，考虑到 上证 50 指数仍未突破去年 10 月的高点，且情绪最为高昂的科创 50ETF 波 动率在 8 月 25 日创下阶段性高点后一路回落（最高点仅次于去年 10 月 8 日创下的记录），后续风格或将切换至大盘（我们前几日持续提示勿要追 高波动率已经放大的板块，低位的大盘股更有性价比）。从技术面来看， 文华商品指数收敛接近极致，贵金属率先走强，原油紧随其后，预计商品 价格将迎来一波涨势，可关注低位的石油、化工、光伏、钢铁等板块。中 长期的上涨趋势并未打破。一是最近的政策倾向不断透露出未来财政支出 的方向正逐步 ...

Core Insights - The report indicates that the recent short-term adjustment in the A-share market is due to a combination of factors, including a rapid rise in the market since late June and the need for market expectations to be re-anchored, leading to a potential impulse adjustment [1] - Despite the short-term adjustments, the report maintains an optimistic outlook, suggesting that high-growth sectors will continue to increase over time, with significant improvements expected in the midstream manufacturing sector around mid-2026 [1] - The report anticipates that 2026 may witness the first effective rebound in profitability and double-digit growth in net profit for the past five years across the A-share market, driven by structural improvements in fundamentals [1] Market Trends - The report highlights that the channel for residents to increase equity allocation will become smoother over time, with public funds issued in 2020-21 nearing their net asset value [1] - Although the broad market indices are currently adjusting, nearly half of the stocks are still rising, indicating a maintained profit-making effect, which is beneficial for institutional net value returns [1] - The report suggests that the market's slowdown could lead to increased clues about economic recovery and enhanced market elasticity, forming a solid foundation for sustained market growth [1] Structural Selection - The report emphasizes that the potential mainline structures for future investments are domestic technological advancements and advanced manufacturing, which are expected to yield high returns, although key catalysts are still awaited [1] - Key economic indicators to watch in September and October include the ongoing demand for computing power and the progress of Tesla's Optimus product, as well as potential demand highlights in certain cyclical products [1] - The report notes that the Hong Kong stock market currently offers better value than the A-share market, reflecting a more optimistic economic trend with fewer bullish expectations [1]