1. Report Information - Report title: Synthetic Rubber Morning Report [2] - Research team: Energy and Chemicals Team of the Research Center [3] - Date: December 23, 2025 [3] 2. Core Data Summary BR (Butadiene Rubber) - **Futures Information**: On December 22, the BR主力合约 (12) price was 11230, up 210 from the previous day and 300 from the previous week. The holding volume was 103729, an increase of 1734 from the previous day and 2673 from the previous week. The trading volume was 173927, up 46651 from the previous day and 33120 from the previous week. The warrant quantity remained at 20810, with no change from the previous day but an increase of 1630 from the previous week. The virtual - real ratio was 24.92, with no daily change and a weekly decrease of 1 [4]. - **Basis/Spread/Inter - variety**: The butadiene rubber basis was - 230, down 60 from the previous day and 50 from the previous week. The styrene - butadiene basis was 20, down 210 from the previous day and 250 from the previous week. The 02 - 03 spread was - 15, up 10 from the previous day and 10 from the previous week. The 03 - 04 spread was - 10, down 5 from the previous day and up 15 from the previous week. The RU - BR spread was 3975, down 195 from the previous day and 262 from the previous week. The NR - BR spread was 1125, down 215 from the previous day and 330 from the previous week [4]. - **Spot Price**: The Shandong market price was 11000, up 150 from the previous day and 250 from the previous week. The Transfar market price was 10900, up 100 from the previous day and 250 from the previous week. The Qilu ex - factory price was 10900, with no daily change and an increase of 200 from the previous week. The CFR Northeast Asia price remained at 1350, and the CFR Southeast Asia price remained at 1600, both with no daily or weekly changes [4]. - **Profit**: The spot processing profit was 819, up 150 from the previous day and 276 from the previous week. The import profit was - 243, up 121 from the previous day and 251 from the previous week. The export profit was 1053, down 132 from the previous day and 219 from the previous week [4]. BD (Butadiene) - **Spot Price**: The Shandong market price on December 22 was 7825, with no daily change and a decrease of 25 from the previous week. The Jiangsu market price was 7775, up 75 from the previous day and 150 from the previous week. The Yangzi ex - factory price was 7800, with no daily change and an increase of 250 from the previous week. The CFR China price was 870 [4]. - **Profit**: The ethylene cracking profit was N/A. The carbon four extraction profit was N/A. The butene oxidation dehydrogenation profit was - 1179, up 75 from the previous day and 80 from the previous week. The import profit was N/A, down 362 compared to a certain previous value and 287 from the previous week. The export profit was - 1352, down 66 from the previous day and up 503 from the previous week. The styrene - butadiene production profit was 1238, with no daily change and a decrease of 50 from the previous week. The ABS production profit was N/A. The SBS production profit was - 392, with no daily change and an increase of 70 from the previous week [4]

Core Viewpoint - The Ministry of Commerce announced the continuation of anti-dumping duties on imported ethylene propylene diene monomer (EPDM) rubber from the United States, South Korea, and the European Union, with the measures set to expire for imports from the UK on December 20, 2025 [1] Group 1: Anti-Dumping Measures - The anti-dumping tax rates are set at 214.9%-222% for U.S. companies, 12.5%-24.5% for South Korean companies, and 14.7%-31.7% for EU companies [1] - The domestic supply structure for EPDM rubber has been restructured since the implementation of the anti-dumping policy in 2020, allowing current domestic and imported sources to meet downstream demand [1][7] Group 2: Industry Performance - The operating load rate of domestic EPDM rubber enterprises increased from 51.47% in 2020 to a projected 78.58% by 2025 [7] - The domestic EPDM rubber industry has seen significant growth in competitiveness over the past five years [8] Group 3: Import and Export Dynamics - In 2020, the main sources of EPDM rubber imports to China were the U.S. (52,900 tons), South Korea (42,500 tons), and the EU (19,400 tons), accounting for 61% of total imports [9] - By 2024, imports from Saudi Arabia, South Korea, and Japan are projected to be 66,700 tons, 65,300 tons, and 14,700 tons, respectively, making up 88% of total imports [12] Group 4: Production and Demand Trends - China's EPDM rubber production is expected to grow from 278,300 tons in 2021 to 326,300 tons in 2025, reflecting a 17.25% increase [13] - The automotive sector's consumption of EPDM rubber is projected to reach 223,000 tons by 2025, indicating a stable demand structure in downstream applications [13] Group 5: Future Outlook - The EPDM rubber industry is anticipated to shift from scale competition to performance customization, with technological innovation and global integration becoming core competitive advantages [14] - The continuation of anti-dumping duties is based on domestic companies' concerns about potential dumping from the U.S., South Korea, and the EU, which could harm the domestic industry [15]

天然橡胶产业日报 2025-12-22 比-0.13个百分点，同比-8.67个百分点；中国全钢胎样本企业产能利用率为63.61%，环比-0.94个百分点， 及预期。需求方面，上周轮胎企业灵活排产，部分企业存控产现象，国内轮胎企业产能利用率偏弱运行， 数据来源于第三方，仅供参考。市场有风险，投资需谨慎！ 同比+3.72个百分点。各企业灵活排产，部分企业存控产现象，样本企业产能利用率偏弱运行。 进入季节性淡季，企业整体出货节奏偏慢，成品库存攀升，产销压力下，部分企业存停限产现象。ru2605 研究员: 林静宜 期货从业资格号F03139610 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0021558 合约短线预计在15000-15650区间波动，nr2602合约短线预计在12200-12650区间波动。 免责声明 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 沪胶主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) 沪胶5-9差(日,元/吨) | 15205 30 | 15 20号胶主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) 10 20号胶2-3价差 ...

1. Report Information - Report Title: "Synthetic Rubber Morning Report" [2] - Research Team: Research Center's Energy and Chemicals Team [3] - Report Date: December 22, 2025 [3] - Data Sources: Mysteel, Wind [8] 2. Core Data Summary BR (Butadiene Rubber) - **Futures Information** - On December 19, the BR主力合约 (12) was at 11020, with a daily change of -20 and a weekly change of 175 [4] - The holding volume was 101995, a daily increase of 619 and a weekly increase of 3952 [4] - The trading volume was 127276, a daily decrease of 158 and a weekly decrease of 82787 [4] - The warehouse receipt quantity was 20810, a daily increase of 630 and a weekly increase of 1630 [4] - The long - short ratio was 24.51, with a daily and weekly decrease of 1 [4] - **Basis/Spread/Inter - variety** - The butadiene rubber basis was -170, a daily increase of 20 and a weekly decrease of 75 [4] - The styrene - butadiene basis was 230, a daily decrease of 30 and a weekly decrease of 125 [4] - The 02 - 03 spread was -25, a daily decrease of 15 and a weekly increase of 5 [4] - The 03 - 04 spread was -5, a daily increase of 20 and a weekly increase of 20 [4] - The RU - BR spread was 4170, a daily decrease of 110 and a weekly decrease of 185 [4] - The NR - BR spread was 1340, a weekly decrease of 175 [4] - **Spot Price** - The Shandong market price was 10850, with no daily change and a weekly increase of 100 [4] - The Transfar market price was 10800, with no daily change and a weekly increase of 150 [4] - The Qilu ex - factory price was 10900, with no daily change and a weekly increase of 300 [4] - CFR Northeast Asia was 1350, with no daily change and a weekly increase of 25 [4] - CFR Southeast Asia was 1600, with no daily and weekly change [4] - **Profit** - The spot processing profit was 752, a daily increase of 51 and a weekly increase of 217 [4] - The import profit was -394, a daily increase of 3 and a weekly decrease of 91 [4] - The export profit was 1184, a daily decrease of 3 [4] BD (Butadiene) - **Spot Price** - The Shandong market price was 7825, a daily decrease of 50 and a weekly decrease of 115 [4] - The Jiangsu market price was 7700, a daily decrease of 50 and a weekly increase of 100 [4] - The Yangzi ex - factory price was 7800, with no daily change and a weekly increase of 250 [4] - CFR China was 870, with no daily and weekly change [4] - **Profit** - The ethylene cracking profit data on December 19 was N/A [4] - The carbon four extraction profit data on December 19 was N/A [4] - The import profit was 627, a daily decrease of 48 and a weekly increase of 26 [4] - The export profit was -1286, a daily increase of 42 and a weekly increase of 543 [4] - The styrene - butadiene production profit was 1213, with no daily change and a weekly increase of 25 [4] - The ABS production profit data on December 19 was N/A [4] - The SBS production profit was -392, a daily increase of 30 and a weekly increase of 70 [4]

Core Viewpoint - The Ministry of Commerce of China has announced the initiation of a final review investigation into anti-dumping measures applicable to imported Ethylene-Propylene-Diene Monomer (EPDM) rubber from the United States, South Korea, and the European Union, following a request from domestic producers [1][2]. Group 1: Anti-Dumping Measures - The anti-dumping duties imposed on EPDM rubber from the U.S. range from 214.9% to 222.0%, from South Korea 12.5% to 24.5%, and from the EU 14.7% to 31.7%, effective from December 20, 2020, for a period of five years [1][3]. - The review will continue to apply the same tax rates during the investigation period, which starts on December 20, 2025 [3][4]. Group 2: Investigation Details - The investigation period for dumping will cover from July 1, 2024, to June 30, 2025, while the injury investigation period will span from January 1, 2021, to June 30, 2025 [4][5]. - The scope of the review includes the same products as those covered by the original anti-dumping measures, specifically EPDM rubber [5][8]. Group 3: Industry Impact - The applicants, representing the domestic EPDM rubber industry, argue that terminating the anti-dumping measures could lead to continued or renewed dumping and potential harm to the domestic industry [2][8]. - EPDM rubber is widely used in various sectors, including construction, automotive, and electrical industries, indicating its significance in the market [6].

Core Viewpoint - The Ministry of Commerce of China has announced a review of anti-dumping measures on imported ethylene propylene diene monomer (EPDM) rubber from the United States, South Korea, and the European Union, following a request from domestic companies, indicating potential ongoing or renewed dumping and damage to the domestic industry if measures are terminated [1]. Group 1 - The Ministry of Commerce received an application for a final review of anti-dumping measures on October 17, 2025, from China National Petroleum Corporation Jilin Petrochemical Company and Shanghai Sinopec Mitsui Elastomers Co., Ltd [1]. - The review will investigate the period of dumping from July 1, 2024, to June 30, 2025, and the period of industry damage from January 1, 2021, to June 30, 2025 [1]. - The Ministry has decided to continue imposing anti-dumping duties on EPDM rubber from the U.S., South Korea, and the EU during the review period, based on the rates established in the 2020 announcement [1]. Group 2 - The anti-dumping tax rates established in the 2020 announcement are as follows: 214.9% to 222.0% for U.S. companies, 12.5% to 24.5% for South Korean companies, and 14.7% to 31.7% for EU companies, with a five-year implementation period starting from December 20, 2020 [2]. - The anti-dumping measures on EPDM rubber from the UK will expire on December 20, 2025 [1].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided regarding the investment rating of the industry [1] 2. Core View of the Report - No clear - cut core view presented in the given content. The report mainly presents data on the synthetic rubber market [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Categories BR (Butadiene Rubber) - **Futures Data** - On December 18, the BR主力合约(12) was at 11040, down 120 from the previous day and up 320 from November 18. The holding volume was 101376, down 4040 from the previous day and up 11542 from November 18. The trading volume was 127434, down 54002 from the previous day and up 3589 from November 18. The warehouse receipt quantity reached 20180, up 500 from the previous day and up 1000 from November 18 [4] - The virtual - to - real ratio was 25.12, down 2 from the previous day and up 2 from November 18. The butadiene rubber basis was - 190, up 20 from the previous day and down 120 from November 18 [4] - The 02 - 03 spread was - 10, unchanged from the previous day and up 15 from November 18. The 03 - 04 spread was - 52, down 25 from the previous day and down 10 from November 18 [4] - The RU - BR spread was 4280, up 50 from the previous day and down 230 from November 18. The NR - BR spread was 1415, up 5 from the previous day and down 195 from November 18 [4] - **Spot Data** - The Shandong market price was 10850, down 100 from the previous day and up 200 from November 18. The Transfar market price was 10800, down 150 from the previous day and up 220 from November 18 [4] - The Qilu ex - factory price was 10900, unchanged from the previous day and up 300 from November 18. The CFR Northeast Asia price was 1350, unchanged from the previous day and up 25 from November 18. The CFR Southeast Asia price was 1600, unchanged from the previous day and unchanged from November 18 [4] - **Profit Data** - The spot processing profit was 618, up 119 from the previous day and down 183 from November 18. The import profit was - 398, down 100 from the previous day and up 18 from November 18. The export profit was 1188, up 87 from the previous day and down 191 from November 18 [4] BD (Butadiene) - **Spot Data** - The Shandong market price was 7875, down 215 from the previous day and up 375 from November 18. The Jiangsu market price was 7750, down 75 from the previous day and up 375 from November 18 [4] - The Yangtze ex - factory price was 7800, unchanged from the previous day and up 450 from November 18. The CFR China price was 870, unchanged from the previous day and up 10 from November 18 [4] - **Profit Data** - The ethylene cracking profit data on December 18 was N/A. The carbon - four extraction profit data on December 18 was also N/A. The butylene oxidative dehydrogenation profit was - 1234, down 175 from the previous day and up 275 from November 18 [4] - The import profit was 675, down 75 from the previous day and up 306 from November 18. The export profit was - 1328, up 136 from the previous day and up 300 from November 18 [4] - The styrene - butadiene production profit was 1213, unchanged from the previous day and down 125 from November 18. The ABS production profit was - 643, up 45 from the previous day and up 47 from November 18. The SBS production profit was - 425, unchanged from the previous day and up 100 from November 18 [4]

Group 1 - The theoretical profit margin level for styrene-butadiene rubber (SBR) is continuing to widen as of December 2025 [1] - As of December 12, 2025, Sinopec's SBR price is set at 11,000 yuan/ton, an increase of 300 yuan/ton or 2.8% from November 3 [1] - The theoretical production cost of SBR is 10,162.5 yuan/ton, which has risen by 200 yuan/ton or 2.01% since November 3 [1] Group 2 - The increase in SBR prices is primarily due to the lower price increase of raw material butadiene compared to SBR [1] - Short-term expectations indicate that the theoretical profit margin for SBR may rise slightly by 500-800 yuan/ton [1] - Supply of SBR is expected to decrease initially and then increase, with a maintenance shutdown at Li Changgong (Huizhou) on December 8, expected to resume by the end of December [1] Group 3 - Overall demand for SBR is anticipated to weaken, which may limit effective support for SBR prices despite supply fluctuations [1] - There is no expectation for a significant decline in SBR prices due to macroeconomic disturbances [1] - Monitoring the export volume of butadiene is crucial for understanding its impact on SBR pricing [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT) has published a notification regarding the "National Industrial Power Demand Side Management Typical Cases (2025)", highlighting the importance of managing electricity demand in the industrial sector to support the national energy production and consumption revolution strategy [1][3]. Summary by Sections Notification Details - The notification was issued on December 16, 2025, and includes a list of 34 enterprises and 30 products (technologies) recognized as typical cases for power demand side management [2][3]. - Local industrial and information departments are encouraged to strengthen research on industrial electricity use and support policies, promote typical case studies, and enhance the effectiveness of power demand side management [1][3]. Case Studies - The document lists various enterprises and their initiatives in power demand side management, including: - **Hebei Changan Automobile Co., Ltd.**: Established a leadership group for power demand management, upgraded distribution networks, and implemented energy-saving measures, achieving a direct electricity cost saving of 13.45 million yuan in 2024 [3]. - **Jilin Linglong Tire Co., Ltd.**: Formed a management team and installed protective devices to improve power quality, saving 9.31 million kWh in 2024 [3]. - **Heilongjiang Province Companies**: Various companies implemented energy management systems, upgraded equipment, and participated in demand response, achieving significant energy savings and reductions in carbon emissions [4][5]. Implementation Outcomes - The initiatives led to substantial energy savings across different companies, with some reporting savings of millions of kWh and significant reductions in carbon emissions [4][5][6]. - Companies have adopted advanced technologies and management practices, such as distributed solar power generation, energy monitoring systems, and participation in electricity market transactions, to optimize energy use and reduce costs [6][7]. Future Directions - The MIIT emphasizes the need for continuous improvement in energy management practices and encourages enterprises to adopt innovative technologies and strategies to enhance energy efficiency and sustainability [1][3].

Report Information - Report Title: Synthetic Rubber Morning Report [2] - Research Team: Energy and Chemicals Team of the Research Center [3] - Date: December 16, 2025 [3] Core Data Summary BR (Butadiene Rubber) - **Futures Information**: On December 15, the BR主力合约(12) price was 10,845, up 125 from the previous day and 395 from November 13; the持仓量 was 98,043, an increase of 8,209 from the previous day and 21,634 from November 13; the成交量 was 210,063, up 86,218 from the previous day and 99,018 from November 13; the 仓単数量 remained unchanged at 19,180 from the previous day, with an increase of 1,860 from November 13; the 虚实比 was 25.56, up 2 from the previous day and 4 from November 13 [4]. - **Basis and Spread**: The 顺丁基差 was -95, down 25 from the previous day and 145 from November 13; the 丁本县差 was 355, down 125 from the previous day and 195 from November 13; the 02 - 03 was -30, down 5 from the previous day and 10 from November 13; the 03 - 04 was -52, down 10 from the previous day and up 20 from November 13; the RU - BR was 4,355, down 152 from the previous day and 180 from November 13; the NR - BR was 1,515, down 95 from the previous day and 115 from November 13 [4]. - **Spot Price**: The 山东市场价 was 10,750, up 100 from the previous day and 250 from November 13; the 传化市场价 was 10,650, up 70 from the previous day and 250 from November 13; the 齐鲁出厂价 remained at 10,600; the CFR东北亚 was 1,325, and the CFR东南亚 was 1,600, both remaining unchanged [4]. - **Profit**: The 现货加工利润 was 451, down 349 from the previous day and 454 from November 13; the 进口利润 was -315, up 100 from the previous day and 264 from November 13; the 出口利润 was 1,291, down 87 from the previous day [4]. Other Related Products - **Butadiene**: The 山东市场价 was 7,940, up 440 from the previous day and 690 from November 13; the 江苏市场价 was 7,600, up 225 from the previous day and 400 from November 13; the 扬子出厂价 was 7,550, up 200 from the previous day and 350 from November 13; the CFR中国 was 870, up 10 from the previous day and 10 from November 13 [4]. - **Profit of Related Products**: The 乙烯裂解利润 data was N/A; the 碳四抽提利润 data was N/A; the 进口利润 was 465; the 出口利润 was -1,259, down 196 from the previous day; the 丁苯生产利润 was 1,188, down 150 from the previous day and 263 from November 13; the ABS生产利润 data was N/A; the SBS生产利润 was -465, up 60 from the previous day and down 45 from November 13 [4].