橡胶制造

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合成橡胶:原油低位反弹 提振BR小幅反弹
Jin Tou Wang· 2025-05-07 02:10
Raw Materials and Spot Prices - As of May 6, the market price of butadiene in Shandong is 9175 (-25) CNY/ton; CIF price for butadiene in China is 1000 (+0) USD/ton; the market price for styrene-butadiene rubber (BR9000) in Shandong Qilu Petrochemical is 11600 (+0) CNY/ton, with a price difference of -2850 (-250) CNY/ton for styrene-butadiene rubber and a basis of 285 (-235) CNY/ton [1] Production and Operating Rates - In April, China's butadiene production was 443,100 tons, down 3.8% month-on-month; styrene-butadiene rubber production was 121,500 tons, down 5.2% month-on-month; semi-steel tire production was 55.39 million units, down 7.2% month-on-month, and down 0.77% year-on-year; full-steel tire production was 13.08 million units, down 4.5% month-on-month, and down 3.4% year-on-year [2] - As of May 2, the operating rates in the styrene-butadiene rubber industry showed divergence: butadiene industry operating rate was 68.9%, down 2% month-on-month; high cis-styrene-butadiene rubber industry operating rate was 71.9%, up 5.8% month-on-month; semi-steel tire manufacturers' operating rate was 66.7%, down 7.8% month-on-month; full-steel tire manufacturers' operating rate was 59.5%, down 9.5% month-on-month [2] Inventory Levels - As of May 2, butadiene port inventory was 36,500 tons, up 1,700 tons month-on-month; styrene-butadiene rubber factory inventory was 26,850 tons, down 1,790 tons, a decrease of 6.3% month-on-month; traders' inventory was 5,100 tons, up 1,490 tons, an increase of 41.3% month-on-month [3] Industry News - According to Longzhong Information on May 6, Maoming Petrochemical's 5,000 tons/year butadiene extraction unit is scheduled for maintenance starting May 7, lasting approximately 20 days; downstream SBS units will also undergo maintenance [4] Market Analysis - On May 6, crude oil rebounded from low levels, boosting BR slightly, with the main contract for synthetic rubber BR2506 closing at 11,315 CNY/ton, an increase of 0.62% compared to the previous day's settlement price. Tariff issues have led to a decline in demand, and the supply of styrene-butadiene rubber is expected to increase significantly in May, resulting in a loose supply-demand balance. The butadiene supply-demand situation remains challenging due to simultaneous maintenance and production ramp-up in domestic facilities, with no significant contraction in domestic supply. Despite many Asian ethylene facilities undergoing maintenance in May, tariff issues may lead to a severe decline in orders for the automotive and tire manufacturing industries in Japan and South Korea, impacting the demand for butadiene in these regions and potentially leading to oversupply, which could increase imports to China or decrease Asian butadiene prices. Therefore, the cost support for BR is limited. In the natural rubber sector, smooth tapping in domestic and foreign production areas is pushing the supply side into seasonal weakness, putting pressure on natural rubber prices. On a macro level, the unresolved "tariff war" continues to create uncertainty in the market. Overall, cost support is limited, and with increased supply and weak demand for styrene-butadiene rubber, BR is expected to face downward pressure [5]
合成橡胶:短期有支撑,但驱动有限
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-04-28 01:58
2025 年 04 月 28 日 合成橡胶:短期有支撑,但驱动有限 杨鈜汉 投资咨询从业资格号:Z0021541 yanghonghan025588@gtjas.com 【基本面跟踪】 期货研究 商 品 研 究 合成橡胶基本面数据 | 项目 | | 项目名称 | | 昨日数据 | 前日数据 | 变动幅度 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 顺丁橡胶主力 | 日盘收盘价 成交量 | (元/吨) (手) | 11,335 | 11,235 | 100 31640 | | | | | | 182,590 | 150,950 | | | | (06合约) | 持仓量 | (手) | 42,499 | 41,730 | 769 | | | | 成交额 | (万元) | 1,035,589 | 842,572 | 193017 | | 价差数据 | 基差 | 山东顺丁-期货主力 | | 11,700 | 365 | 11335 | | | 月差 | BR05-BR06 | (民营) | 65 | 70 | -5 | | | 顺丁价格 | | | | ...
这三个国家,正在缓解中国外贸的“焦虑”
吴晓波频道· 2025-04-22 16:04
点击图片▲立即试听 上周,最高领导人连续走访越南、马来西亚、柬埔寨三个东南亚国家。 财经评论员刘晓博撰文指出:当前, 重点实施"周边战略",跟欧洲形成关税联盟,再加上非洲战略、南美战略,中国就可以稳住外贸基本盘,还 可以有所增长。 对中国企业家而言,这也是一次企业转向"生而全球"的好契机。 以上述东南亚三国为例,走访期间,双方总共签署超过105份双边合作文件,在当前国际秩序和经济全球化遭受冲击的背景下,此次的"商业订单 大礼包"可以说是给中国企业出海找了三个"铁杆队友"。 武汉阳逻港通往越南凯莱港的航线 其中,越南45份,涵盖互联互通、人工智能、海关检验检疫、农产品贸易、文化和体育、民生、人力资源开发等领域。 " 这既是一场 ' 用空间换时间 ' 的战略布局,更是一次 ' 以合作破壁垒 ' 的全球突围。 " 文 / 巴九灵(微信公众号:吴晓波频道) 关税战下,"元首外交"成了关注焦点。 马来西亚和柬埔寨,均为30多份,前者涵盖数字经济、服务贸易、"两国双园"升级发展、联合实验室、铁路、知识产权、农产品输华、大熊猫保 护等领域;后者涉及产供链合作、人工智能、发展援助、海关检验检疫、卫生、新闻等领域。 为什么优先 ...
兰州一块胶的“逆袭”之旅
Zhong Guo Xin Wen Wang· 2025-04-19 00:42
Core Viewpoint - The Lanzhou Petrochemical plant, a historic synthetic rubber production base in Gansu Province, is expanding its capacity and focusing on technological innovation to become the largest producer of synthetic rubber in China while advancing towards high-end products [1][2]. Group 1: Historical Significance - Lanzhou Petrochemical is recognized as one of the earliest synthetic rubber production bases in New China, having produced the first domestic block of latex-butadiene rubber in May 1960 and the first block of nitrile rubber in August 1962 [2]. - Over the past 60 years, the plant has witnessed the evolution of synthetic rubber in China, contributing significantly to the industry [1]. Group 2: Production Capacity and Innovation - The current total production capacity of the Lanzhou Petrochemical plant is 250,000 tons per year, with a focus on high-end specialty products in 2024 [2]. - The plant has successfully developed six new products and expanded the production of four products, achieving a historical high in both variety and output, with over 3,200 tons of new product output [2]. - The introduction of intelligent control in the production process has significantly improved product quality and production efficiency, providing new technological support for industry development [2]. Group 3: Product Applications and Future Plans - Nitrile rubber produced at the plant is known for its oil resistance, heat resistance, and wear resistance, making it suitable for high-end construction, white goods insulation, refrigeration, automotive, and heavy equipment applications [3]. - The plant plans to build an additional nitrile rubber production unit with an annual capacity of 70,000 tons by the end of the 14th Five-Year Plan, aiming to become the largest nitrile rubber producer globally [3].
橡胶:基本面存中和作用,胶市或不必悲观
Hong Ye Qi Huo· 2025-04-17 13:28
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content 2. Core View of the Report - Since the US launched a tariff trade war at the beginning of April, the rubber market has declined significantly. However, considering the fundamentals, there is no need to be overly pessimistic. The supply side is at the beginning of the new rubber - tapping season, and it will take time for production to increase. The domestic demand side shows strong tire开工, and the inventory growth in Qingdao is slowing down. The technical price has reached the lower limit of the operating center in the first half of last year, and the probability of further decline in the short - term is low [4][26]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Southeast Asia is about to start tapping, and domestic production is gradually increasing - In terms of supply from rubber - producing countries, according to ANRPC revised data, the rubber production in January 2025 continued the high - yield state of the fourth quarter of last year, with a year - on - year increase of 1.09 million tons. Although the output decreased rapidly in February compared with January, it still had a year - on - year increase of 750,000 tons. The supply during the low - yield season this year is looser than that of last year. It is expected that the data for March and April will also maintain a year - on - year positive state. - Overseas, after the Songkran Festival in Southeast Asian main producing areas, rubber tapping is expected to start gradually. In Thailand, some areas in the north and northeast are in trial tapping, and the south is expected to start normal tapping in late April and increase production in mid - May. In Vietnam, large - scale tapping has not started due to the dry season, and only individual state - owned farms have started trial tapping. - In China, the Yunnan production area is in the transition period of tapping, with slow growth of latex output. The Hainan production area is in the initial stage of tapping, with low overall latex output. Most processing plants have not officially started work, and only state - owned factories have started to purchase latex. It is expected that large - scale tapping will gradually start at the end of April or early May [5]. 3.2 Downstream tire start - up is strong and stable, and the terminal automobile market had a good start in the first quarter - In terms of downstream tire start - up, the overall performance in the first quarter of this year was good, especially in the second half after the Spring Festival. Although it has declined slightly recently due to the US tariff trade war, the start - up rate is still at a relatively high level. Currently, the all - steel tire start - up rate is maintained at 66.15%, and the semi - steel tire start - up rate is maintained at 78.52%, both higher than the best level in the second half of last year. - In terms of tire production, due to the high start - up rate in the first quarter, the tire output in the first two months increased by 15.2% year - on - year, reaching 176.5 million pieces. In terms of tire exports, the exports in January and February both achieved positive growth. Although the export volume in February decreased significantly compared with January, it still had a year - on - year increase of 1.2%. - In the terminal automobile market, in March, the production and sales of automobiles increased by 11.9% and 8.2% year - on - year respectively, and by 42.9% and 37% month - on - month respectively. In the first quarter, the cumulative production and sales of automobiles increased by 14.5% and 11.2% year - on - year respectively. Among them, the production and sales of passenger cars increased significantly, while the performance of commercial vehicles was slightly weaker. The new energy vehicle market continued to heat up, with significant year - on - year and month - on - month increases [8][12][16]. 3.3 The growth of Qingdao inventory is slowing down, and the increase of futures warehouse receipts is stabilizing - According to the domestic inventory data, since the inventory in Qingdao started to increase again in November last year, the inventory has accumulated to a relatively high level. The inventory in Qingdao has increased from 413,000 tons at the beginning of November to 621,000 tons currently, with a cumulative increase of 50.36%. However, the growth rate has slowed down significantly recently, especially in the past two weeks, the increase has been less than 0.5%. - In terms of domestic futures inventory, since March, the warehouse receipts of Shanghai rubber have continued to increase slightly, and the warehouse receipts of 20 - standard rubber futures, which had decreased before, have also increased again. Currently, the increase of Shanghai rubber warehouse receipts has slowed down, with the total amount exceeding 200,000 tons, and the 20 - standard rubber futures warehouse receipts have increased to 77,700 tons, with a steep increase rate [18][20]. 3.4 Summary and Outlook - Since the US launched a tariff trade war at the beginning of April, the rubber market has declined severely. The Shanghai rubber has broken through the high - level operating center since the fourth quarter of last year and reached the lower limit of the operating center in the first half of last year. The maximum phased decline this month was close to 2,900 yuan/ton for Shanghai rubber and more than 2,800 yuan/ton for 20 - standard rubber futures. - The tariff trade war has had a large short - term impact on the confidence of the industrial chain. The US tariff on China has increased to 125%. Although the rubber market has declined significantly recently, there is no need to be overly pessimistic from the perspective of fundamentals. The market may gradually digest the negative news around the 14,000 - yuan mark and wait for the production increase in each production area in the new rubber - tapping season and the further development of the US tariff trade war [24][25][26].
广发期货《特殊商品》日报-20250417
Guang Fa Qi Huo· 2025-04-17 07:17
1. Report Industry Investment Ratings There is no information about industry investment ratings in the provided reports. 2. Core Views Glass and Soda Ash - Soda ash: Production is gradually recovering to a high level, and the weekly output has returned to around 73 - 740,000 tons. There has been a slight reduction in inventory, but with the increase in production, there is still expected to be inventory pressure. The market for soda ash remains under pressure due to the lag in photovoltaic resumption, and the futures market is expected to continue its weak oscillation in the future [1]. - Glass: The spot market is weak, and the macro - level is bearish, which jointly puts pressure on glass prices. The 05 contract is affected by the expansion of the delivery warehouse in Hubei and is showing a weak performance. The 09 contract has a relatively low price, and the market has expectations for stimulus policies, but there is currently no short - term driver [1]. Industrial Silicon The spot price of industrial silicon continues to decline, and the futures price has reached a new low. Supply has a slight increase, demand remains weak, and downstream prices are showing a downward trend, which drags down the price of industrial silicon. There are concerns about inventory accumulation, and the price fluctuation range is further adjusted to 8,500 - 10,500 yuan/ton [3]. Polysilicon The polysilicon futures price has fallen sharply, and the current spot price is at a significant premium to the futures price. There is support from downstream demand in April, but polysilicon inventory has not continued to decline, and downstream prices are starting to weaken. The futures price is expected to have limited room for further decline [4]. Natural Rubber Domestic rubber - producing areas are entering the new tapping season, and overseas areas are also gradually starting to tap after the Songkran Festival. The cost support for rubber prices has weakened. On the demand side, the inventory of semi - steel tires continues to increase, and enterprises are reducing production to control inventory. Short - term rubber prices are expected to face significant pressure [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Glass and Soda Ash Prices and Spreads - Glass: Spot prices in North China, East China, Central China, and South China remained unchanged. The 2505 contract decreased by 0.69% to 1144 yuan/ton, and the 2509 contract decreased by 2.07% to 1181 yuan/ton. The 05 basis increased by 8.16% [1]. - Soda ash: Spot prices in North China, East China, Central China, and Northwest China remained unchanged. The 2505 contract decreased by 0.60% to 1331 yuan/ton, and the 2509 contract decreased by 0.67% to 1368 yuan/ton. The 05 basis increased by 3.79% [1]. Supply and Demand - Soda ash: The operating rate increased from 82.38% to 88.05%, and the weekly output increased by 3.46% to 737,700 tons. The daily melting volume of float glass and photovoltaic glass remained unchanged [1]. - Glass: There is no significant change in the main supply - related data [1]. Inventory - Glass: The inventory in the market decreased by 0.84% to 65,203,000 weight boxes [1]. - Soda ash: The factory inventory decreased by 0.49% to 1.693 million tons, and the delivery warehouse inventory decreased by 3.08% to 402,700 tons [1]. Real Estate Data New construction area decreased by 2.88% year - on - year, construction area decreased by 20.51% year - on - year, completion area increased by 5.27% year - on - year, and sales area increased by 1.81% year - on - year [1]. Industrial Silicon Spot Prices and Basis The prices of East China oxygen - containing S15530 industrial silicon, East China SI4210 industrial silicon, and Xinjiang 99 silicon all decreased, while the basis increased [3]. Monthly Fundamental Data In March, the national industrial silicon output increased by 18.20% to 3.422 million tons, the output in Xinjiang increased by 26.57% to 2.108 million tons, the output in Yunnan decreased by 14.58% to 123,000 tons, and the output in Sichuan increased by 170.59% to 46,000 tons. The national operating rate increased by 13.29% to 57.80% [3]. Inventory Changes Xinjiang factory inventory increased by 4.42% to 226,700 tons, Yunnan factory inventory decreased by 11.40% to 24,100 tons, social inventory increased by 0.66% to 612,000 tons, and warehouse receipt inventory decreased by 0.55% to 349,000 tons [3]. Polysilicon Spot Prices and Basis The average prices of N - type re -投料, P - type cauliflower - like material, and granular silicon remained unchanged. The basis of N - type material and cauliflower - like material increased [4]. Futures Prices and Inter - month Spreads The PS2506 contract decreased by 0.54% to 40,265 yuan/ton. Some inter - month spreads changed significantly, such as the PS2506 - PS2507 spread increasing by 91.50% [4]. Weekly and Monthly Fundamental Data In March, the polysilicon output increased by 6.66% to 96,100 tons. In February, the import volume decreased by 29.29% to 23,000 tons, the export volume decreased by 72.88% to 16,000 tons, and the net export volume decreased by 130.20% to - 8,000 tons [4]. Inventory Changes Polysilicon inventory increased by 3.39% to 244,000 tons, and silicon wafer inventory decreased by 8.37% to 19.15 GW [4]. Natural Rubber Spot Prices and Basis The price of Yunnan state - owned whole - latex rubber decreased by 0.68% to 14,650 yuan/ton, and the whole - latex basis decreased by 62.50%. The price of Thai standard mixed rubber decreased by 0.69% to 14,350 yuan/ton [5]. Inter - month Spreads The 9 - 1 spread increased by 7.06%, the 1 - 5 spread decreased by 21.47%, and the 5 - 9 spread increased by 138.10% [5]. Fundamental Data In February, the production in Thailand decreased by 37.99% to 3.464 million tons, in Indonesia decreased by 0.50% to 1.976 million tons, and in India decreased by 31.48% to 740,000 tons. The operating rate of semi - steel tires decreased by 3.23% to 78.52%, and the operating rate of all - steel tires decreased by 0.37% to 66.15% [5]. Inventory Changes The bonded area inventory increased by 0.13% to 620,670 tons, and the natural rubber factory - warehouse futures inventory on the SHFE increased by 49.13% to 77,717 tons [5].