行业报告 | 行业研究周报 建筑材料 证券研究报告 关税下调利好玻纤，持续关注低介电/低膨胀产品结 构性机会 行情回顾 过去五个交易日（0512-0516 ）沪深 300 涨 1.12% ，建材（中信）跌 0.15% ，其中 玻纤 、陶 瓷等 子板 块 取得 正收 益。 个股 中， 中旗 新材 （+26.6%），ST 三圣（+11.5%），豪美新材（+9.9%），松发股份（+9.7%）， 赛特新材（+9.3%），涨幅居前。上周我们重点推荐组合的表现：华新水泥 （+2.2%）、 三棵树(-1.4%)、高争民爆（-4.2%）、中材科技（+8.2%）、华润 建材科技（+2.4%）、西部水泥(-0.7%)。 关税下调利好玻纤，持续关注低介电/低膨胀产品结构性机会 据 Wind，0510-0516 一周，30 个大中城市商品房销售面积 189.52 万平 米，同比-10.34%。5 月 12 日，中美进行日内瓦经贸会谈联合声明，双方 互减 91%的关税，在 90 天内暂停 24%关税，玻纤利空因素有所减弱。我们 梳理两轮贸易摩擦后当前玻纤加征关税税率达 55%（第一轮贸易摩擦 25%+ 芬太尼关税 20%+基准对等关税 ...

根据 wind 统计，2025 年 4 月地方政府债总发行量 6932.91 亿元，发行金 额同比 2024 年 4 月增长 101.6%，截至目前，2025 年一般债发行规模 0.65 万亿元，同比-0.04 万亿元，专项债发行规模 3.18 万亿元，同比+1.71 万亿元。化债下加码政府财政压力有望减轻，企业资产负债表也存在修复 的空间，市政工程类项目有望加快推进，市政管网及减隔震实物工作量有 望加快落地，关注龙泉股份、青龙管业、中国联塑、震安科技。玻璃需求 季节性环比改善，但供需仍有矛盾：2025 年后玻璃需求持续下滑，3 月以 来需求开始边际改善，但供需仍有矛盾，关注价格下行后的冷修。消费建 材持续推荐：消费建材受益二手房交易向好、消费刺激等政策，且具备长 期提升市占率的逻辑，估值弹性大，持续推荐北新建材、伟星新材，关注 三棵树、兔宝宝、东鹏控股、蒙娜丽莎。水泥错峰停产加强：水泥行业需 求仍在寻底过程中，但企业错峰停产力度加强，水泥价格围绕行业平均不 赚钱波动，关注成本优势定价的龙头海螺水泥、出海标的华新水泥。玻纤 底部已现，关注风电纱涨价：玻纤价格战结束，价格已触底回升，同时风 电招标量快速增长，2 ...

业内人士预计，未来90天中美两国之间的贸易将大幅增长。因为在双方谈判人员努力达成进一步协商进 展的同时，企业将竞相加大力度储备库存，尤其是美国进口商可能将再度发起一轮新的抢购潮。鉴于美 国进口商未来三个月将迎来进口成本大幅降低的明确窗口期，高盛分析师Philip Sun表示，"未来90天， 中国的出口将爆火。'抢先'(Frontrunning)将成为关键词"。 2. 高盛预计四季度，中国央行再次"双降" 国外 1. 高盛预言：未来90天中国出口将爆火 5月13日，高盛在最新发布的研报中上调了对中国出口增长的预测，预计2025年实际出口增速与2024年 基本持平，此前的预测则是同比下滑5%；经常账户盈余占GDP比重也从1.7%上调至2.3%。货币政策方 面，高盛在同日发布的另一篇研报中认为，继中国央行近期"双降"（降准与降息）后，预计第四季度将 再次"双降"（50个基点降准+10个基点降息），2026年或追加两次各10个基点降息。综合对中国2025年 出口增速以及货币政策的假设，高盛还上调了中国今年二季度及下半年的GDP环比增速，并上调2025年 全年实际GDP增速。（证券时报） 3. 高盛：维持对中国股票的超 ...

周专题：建筑建材行业年报一季报表现如何？ ——建材、建筑及基建公募REITs周报（5月6日-5月9日） 2025年5月13日 孙伟风，光大建筑建材首席分析师，执业证书编号：S0930516110003 陈奇凡，光大建筑建材分析师，执业证书编号：S0930523050002 证券研究报告 核心观点 请务必参阅正文之后的重要声明 1 周专题：建筑建材行业年报一季报表现如何？水泥行业：24Q4-25Q1，行业基本面出现好转；后续重点关注企业自 律及错峰生产落地情况、水泥价格走势。玻璃行业：24Q4普遍亏损，25Q1环比改善，光伏玻璃价格是核心变量。玻 纤行业：24Q4-25Q1，玻纤企业盈利普遍环比改善。消费建材：24Q4-25Q1，消费建材企业收入利润仍在下行；预 计未来1年竣工端企业下游需求将持续承压，新开工企业下游需求或仍下滑，但降幅有望收窄。建筑企业：24Q4- 25Q1，建筑行业主要领域龙头公司收入利润下滑家数仍然较多，经营数据较为疲软。 本周热点：中美双方发布《中美日内瓦经贸会谈联合声明》，本次中美经贸高层会谈取得实质性进展，大幅降低双边 关税水平，美方取消了共计91%的加征关税，中方相应取消了91%的 ...

证券研究报告 核心观点 请务必参阅正文之后的重要声明 1 周专题：建筑建材行业年报一季报表现如何？ ——建材、建筑及基建公募REITs周报（5月6日-5月9日） 2025年5月13日 孙伟风，光大建筑建材首席分析师，执业证书编号：S0930516110003 陈奇凡，光大建筑建材分析师，执业证书编号：S0930523050002 5、高频数据跟踪 6、风险提示 2、主要覆盖公司盈利预测与估值 3、周行情回顾 4、总量数据跟踪 周专题：建筑建材行业年报一季报表现如何？水泥行业：24Q4-25Q1，行业基本面出现好转；后续重点关注企业自 律及错峰生产落地情况、水泥价格走势。玻璃行业：24Q4普遍亏损，25Q1环比改善，光伏玻璃价格是核心变量。玻 纤行业：24Q4-25Q1，玻纤企业盈利普遍环比改善。消费建材：24Q4-25Q1，消费建材企业收入利润仍在下行；预 计未来1年竣工端企业下游需求将持续承压，新开工企业下游需求或仍下滑，但降幅有望收窄。建筑企业：24Q4- 25Q1，建筑行业主要领域龙头公司收入利润下滑家数仍然较多，经营数据较为疲软。 本周热点：中美双方发布《中美日内瓦经贸会谈联合声明》，本次中美经贸高层 ...

Group 1 - Shengyi Electronics plans to repurchase shares with a total amount between 50 million and 100 million yuan, at a price not exceeding 43.02 yuan per share, for employee stock ownership plans [1] - Guoyao Modern's subsidiary has passed the consistency evaluation for the quality and efficacy of a generic drug, which is used for treating severe infections [1] - Tianhe Magnetic Materials' subsidiaries have obtained project filing notices for high-performance rare earth permanent magnet projects, with total investments of 100 million yuan and 50 million yuan respectively [1][2] Group 2 - Dream Lily intends to repurchase shares with an amount between 85 million and 170 million yuan, at a price not exceeding 10.90 yuan per share, supported by a loan commitment of up to 150 million yuan [3] - Weifu High-Tech has received a loan commitment of up to 135 million yuan from a financial institution for share repurchase [3] Group 3 - Lu'an Environmental Energy reported a coal sales volume of 4.51 million tons in April, a year-on-year increase of 17.75% [5] - *ST Tianshan reported a significant decline in livestock sales and revenue, with a revenue of 70,500 yuan in April, down 95.68% year-on-year [7] Group 4 - Feirongda announced a cash dividend of 0.38 yuan per 10 shares, with a total distribution of 21.9 million yuan [8] - Zhejiang Rongtai's shareholders and executives plan to reduce their holdings by up to 1.93% of the company's shares [9] Group 5 - Changhua Group's subsidiary won the land use rights for an industrial site in Ningbo for 27.05 million yuan, intended for manufacturing and related business [11] - Zejing Pharmaceutical's new drug application for a treatment for severe alopecia has been accepted by the regulatory authority [13][14] Group 6 - Hainan Mining plans to distribute a cash dividend of 0.8 yuan per 10 shares, totaling 1.59 billion yuan [15] - China Jushi plans to distribute a cash dividend of 0.24 yuan per share, totaling 9.61 billion yuan [16] Group 7 - Zhengzhong Design's subsidiary has obtained a utility model patent for an acrylic signage guide [18] - Rundu Co., Ltd. received approval for a veterinary drug product, which is intended for treating bacterial diseases in livestock [20] Group 8 - Emei Mountain A announced the resignation of its general manager due to work reasons [22] - Tonghua Dongbao's insulin injection has received a registration certificate in Nicaragua, allowing for sales in that market [23] Group 9 - Dizu Fashion's subsidiary has completed the registration of a private equity investment fund [24] - Ningbo Gaofa plans to increase capital by 60 million yuan in its subsidiary for operational needs [26] Group 10 - Haichuan Intelligent has obtained two utility model patents for material handling devices [27] - Newland's subsidiary signed a deep cooperation agreement with Alibaba Cloud for AI model applications [29] Group 11 - Rui Neng Technology's controlling shareholder plans to reduce its stake by up to 2.89% [30] - Guomai Culture intends to repurchase shares between 50 million and 100 million yuan for capital reduction [31] Group 12 - Shaanxi Construction won major construction projects totaling 7.88 billion yuan in April [32] - Hanyu Pharmaceutical signed a joint development agreement for a new peptide drug with a partner [34] Group 13 - Yunnan Copper is planning to acquire a 40% stake in Liangshan Mining, leading to a stock suspension [35] - Haizheng Pharmaceutical plans to repurchase shares between 50 million and 100 million yuan for employee stock ownership [36] Group 14 - Tianqiao Hoisting's controlling shareholder plans to increase its stake by 75 million to 150 million yuan [37] - Tiandi Online's controlling shareholder is transferring shares to introduce a strategic investor [38] Group 15 - Hongchang Technology plans to invest 15 million yuan in a joint venture with a partner [39] - Rabbit Baby's subsidiary is preparing for an IPO in Hong Kong [41] Group 16 - Wol Nuclear Materials is planning to issue H-shares for listing in Hong Kong [42] - Tangyuan Electric plans to raise up to 864 million yuan through a private placement for various projects [43] Group 17 - Tongrun Equipment's major shareholders plan to reduce their holdings by up to 2% [44] - Linzhou Heavy Machinery plans to raise up to 600 million yuan through a private placement [46] Group 18 - China Merchants Securities announced the resignation of its vice president [47] - Shangsheng Electronics plans to issue convertible bonds to raise up to 330 million yuan for various projects [48] Group 19 - Longda Co., Ltd.'s major shareholder plans to reduce its stake by up to 1% [49] - China Medical plans to acquire 100% of Jinsui Technology for 302 million yuan [50] Group 20 - Silek has signed a strategic cooperation agreement with a battery manufacturer [51] - Boyun New Materials' major shareholder plans to reduce its stake by up to 3% [53]

联合研究丨行业点评 [Table_Title] 中美关税下调，周期哪些行业受益？ %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 丨证券研究报告丨 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 5 月 12 日，中美发布《中美日内瓦经贸会谈联合声明》，本次中美经贸高层会谈取得实质性进 展，大幅降低双边关税水平，美方取消了共计 91%的加征关税，中方相应取消了 91%的反制关 税；美方在初始的 90 天内暂停实施 24%的"对等关税"，中方也相应在初始的 90 天内暂停实 施 24%的反制关税，对中美贸易往来的大宗产品带来显著利好，具体影响几何？ 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 王鹤涛 范超 韩轶超 SAC：S0490512070002 SAC：S0490513080001 SAC：S0490512020001 SFC：BQT626 SFC：BQK473 SFC：BQK468 马太 魏凯 张韦华 SAC：S0490516100002 SAC：S0490520080009 SAC：S0490517080003 SFC：BUT911 SFC：BUT964 SFC：BQT627 张弛 SA ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" and maintained [12] Core Viewpoints - The monetary policy has been intensified, with simultaneous reductions in reserve requirements and interest rates, which is expected to support the real estate market and stabilize housing demand [5][21] - Cement prices continue to decline, while glass inventory has increased on a month-on-month basis [6][40] - Recommendations include focusing on the African supply chain and domestic substitution chain, with leading companies being the main investment focus for the year [8][9] Summary by Sections Monetary Policy - The People's Bank of China announced a 0.5 percentage point reduction in the reserve requirement ratio, expected to provide approximately 1 trillion yuan in long-term liquidity [5] - The policy interest rate was lowered by 0.1 percentage points, with the 7-day reverse repurchase rate decreasing from 1.5% to 1.4% [5][21] - The personal housing provident fund loan interest rate was reduced by 0.25 percentage points, with the rate for first-time homebuyers over five years dropping from 2.85% to 2.6% [5] Cement Market - The average shipment rate for cement companies in key regions was 48%, down approximately 1.4 percentage points month-on-month and 6.3 percentage points year-on-year [6] - National cement prices decreased by 1.2% month-on-month, with regional production issues contributing to the price decline [6][25] - The national average cement price was 387.42 yuan/ton, a decrease of 4.52 yuan/ton month-on-month, but an increase of 25.16 yuan/ton year-on-year [26] Glass Market - The overall price of float glass has seen more declines than increases, with a slight downward shift in price levels [7][40] - The production capacity of float glass decreased, with 220 out of 286 production lines operational, and daily melting capacity reduced to 156,505 tons [7] - The total inventory of glass in monitored provinces increased by 191 million weight boxes, a rise of 3.39% [7][40] Recommended Companies - For the African supply chain, Keda Manufacturing is recommended as a leading local player with advantages in production, channels, and brand [8] - For domestic substitution, companies such as China National Materials, Puyang Huicheng, and Meijiaxin Color are highlighted due to their strong market positions and growth potential [8] - The report emphasizes the importance of existing leading companies as a stable investment focus for 2025 [9]

证券研究报告·行业跟踪周报·建筑材料 建筑材料行业跟踪周报 服务消费再贷款落地 2025 年 05 月 12 日 增持（维持） [Table_Tag] [Table_Summary] 投资要点 ◼ 周观点：（1）央行落实此前刺激政策，创设 5000 亿服务消费和养老再 贷款，激励引导金融机构加大对住宿餐饮、文体娱乐、教育等服务消费 重点领域和养老产业的金融支持。4 月 CPI 相对平稳，PPI 下行压力加 大，但 4 月房企拿地情况有所好转，整体而言，地产链复苏的方向不变。 在以旧换新补贴和服务消费刺激政策的推动下，我们期待 25 年 Q3 家 装产业链也会迎来明显加速。地产链出清已近尾声，供给格局大幅改善， 25 年需求平稳且企业增长预期较低，板块具备较高的胜率。首选低估值 的消费龙头和扩张型公司，例如北新建材、三棵树、兔宝宝、奥普科技、 欧普照明、伟星新材、欧派家居、箭牌家居等。其次，如果外部需求快 速回落，中西部基建很有可能成为救急的方向，关注华新水泥、四川路 桥、海螺水泥、中国交建、坚朗五金、东方雨虹等。最后，在 25 年流 动性充裕的背景下，科技属性强的公司仍有较高关注度，例如上海港湾、 鸿路钢构、 ...

【东财建材|周观点】央行降准降息，百强企业投资回升，关注超额收益机会，继续推荐三条主线 5月9日全国/华东/华南水泥发货率48%/52%/54%，环比-1.5/-0.9/-7.2pct，实物量表现平淡；价格整体延续近期下行 走势，均价环比-4.5元/吨至387元/吨，较4月初回落15元/吨。 5月8日浮法玻璃均价1318元/吨，较上周-14元/吨，库存5 【东财建材|周观点】央行降准降息，百强企业投资回升，关注超额收益机会，继续推荐三条主线 实物量表现平淡，部分品种价格趋弱。 实物量表现平淡，部分品种价格趋弱。 央行降准降息，百强企业土地购置回升，关注超额收益机会。 5月7日，央行宣布降准0.5个百分点，预计将向市场提供长期流动性约1万亿元，并下调政策利率0.1个百分点。 我们对于2019年后历次官宣降准后当日、一周、一个月、三个月内建材板块的超额收益进行了统计，在地产基本 面保持良好（2019-2021年地产开发投资均为正增长），或有显著改善预期时（2024年9月化债力度加大+多个重点 城市连续放松限购），建材板块有较大概率相较于沪深300取得超额收益。 截至4月28日，全国一二线城市二手房价格指数分别为1 ...