证券研究报告 2025 年 12 月 07 日 湘财证券研究所 行业研究 疫苗行业周报 继续关注流感需求与创新进展 核心要点： 国内外疫苗动态 （1）瑞吉生物：冻干带状疱疹 mRNA 疫苗（RH110）启动 II 期临床。近日， 瑞吉生物自主研发的冻干带状疱疹 mRNA 疫苗 RH110 正式启动 II 期临床试 验。该项试验采用随机、双盲、对照的多中心设计，旨在评价 RH110 在 40 岁 及以上受试者中的免疫原性与安全性，主要终点指标包括：第 2 剂疫苗接种 后第 30 天，抗 gE 抗原特异性血清抗体和抗 VZV 抗原特异性血清抗体几何平 均滴度和阳转率。RH110 疫苗为注射用冻干制剂，针对水痘-带状疱疹病毒引 起的带状疱疹进行预防，在已完成的Ⅰ期临床试验中，RH110 显示出优异的 安全性和耐受性。（来源：瑞吉生物） 相关研究： 1. 《流感活动度继续攀升至近 三年同期高位，继续关注结构性 机会》20251123 2. 《疫苗企业国际化与研发继 续实现突破，冬季防控压力持续 凸显》20251130 国家流感中心发布的中国流感监测周报显示，2025 年 11 月 24 日-11 月 30 日， 南、 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the transformation of China's biopharmaceutical industry and highlights the role of Watson Bio in this transition, emphasizing the importance of scientific spirit and innovative practices in overcoming industry challenges [2][3]. Group 1: Scientific Spirit - The biopharmaceutical industry in China is transitioning from "catching up" to "leading," requiring a scientific spirit characterized by patriotism, innovation, pragmatism, dedication, collaboration, and education [2]. - The balance between urgent public health needs and the long-term, high-risk nature of biopharmaceutical R&D is crucial, with the scientific spirit serving as an internal stabilizer [2]. - Watson Bio invests over 20% of its annual revenue in R&D, adopts a data-driven approach, collaborates with academic institutions, and focuses on public health issues [2][3]. Group 2: Role of the Company - Watson Bio's bivalent HPV vaccine has received prequalification from the World Health Organization, marking a significant step in making vaccines accessible [3]. - The company aims to evolve from a "supplier" to a "solution partner," emphasizing technology transfer, joint R&D for regional diseases, and ecosystem building for accessibility solutions [3]. Group 3: mRNA Platform - Watson Bio has established four core technology platforms, including mRNA technology, which allows for rapid vaccine development [4]. - The mRNA platform fundamentally changes the vaccine R&D paradigm, reducing development time from years to months through modular design and rapid iteration [4]. - The strategic focus of the mRNA platform includes creating a rapid response system for emerging infectious diseases and expanding into precision medicine for cancer treatment [4].

Core Viewpoint - The forum and roundtable discussion focused on the collaborative prevention and management of chronic diseases and infectious diseases, particularly emphasizing the importance of proactive health measures to address the "three highs and one rash" health risks in adults [1][2]. Group 1: Health Risks and Disease Management - The current flu season has highlighted the seasonal fluctuations and localized outbreaks of respiratory diseases, with a growing concern over the combined effects of chronic diseases and infectious diseases like shingles [2][3]. - Many chronic disease patients are not singularly ill; they often suffer from multiple conditions, necessitating a shift from traditional single-disease management to a multi-disease collaborative management approach [2][3]. - Chronic disease patients, such as those with diabetes, chronic kidney disease, cardiovascular diseases, and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, are at a higher risk for shingles, with diabetes patients having a 60% increased risk compared to the general population [7]. Group 2: Preventive Measures and Community Health Initiatives - The approval of a new indication for the recombinant shingles vaccine for adults aged 18 and older with known diseases or treatments that cause immune deficiency marks a significant step in protecting against adult infectious diseases [2]. - Community health service centers play a crucial role in implementing the "prevention first" concept, with initiatives such as integrated outpatient services and health passports to guide patients on vaccination needs [7]. - Data from community health centers show a significant increase in vaccination consultations and shingles vaccine administration, indicating the effectiveness of these preventive measures [7].

Core Viewpoint - A domestic innovative vaccine company, Olin Bio, is exploring cross-market financing by applying for a dual listing on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange after its initial public offering on the Sci-Tech Innovation Board in 2021, amidst increasing competition and market differentiation in the vaccine industry [1] Financial Performance - Olin Bio achieved a net profit of 108 million yuan in its first year of listing in 2021, but subsequent years saw a decline in net profit, with figures of 26.58 million yuan, 17.56 million yuan, and 20.76 million yuan projected for 2022 to 2024, despite a slight revenue increase from 547 million yuan to 589 million yuan [2] - The company's main revenue sources are its three vaccines, with the adsorbed tetanus vaccine accounting for 90.99% of total revenue in 2024, highlighting a significant reliance on a single product [2] Cash Flow and Receivables - Olin Bio's cash flow situation is deteriorating, with trade receivables rising from 492 million yuan in 2022 to 665 million yuan by Q3 2025, consistently exceeding 90% of revenue [3] - The efficiency of collections is weakening, with accounts receivable turnover days increasing from 272.29 days in 2022 to 327.91 days in Q3 2025, leading to ongoing pressure on operating cash flow [5] Profitability Metrics - The company maintains a high gross margin of 92% to 94%, but its net profit margin remains low at 2% to 5%, significantly below comparable companies in the industry, which exceed 20% [6] - High sales and research expenses are compressing profits, with sales and distribution expenses consistently over 50% of revenue, reaching 48.56% in the first three quarters of 2025 [6][7] Research and Development - Olin Bio has a research expense ratio exceeding 20%, with annual R&D spending over 100 million yuan, as it develops new vaccine candidates that require substantial ongoing investment [8] Fundraising and Shareholder Actions - The company plans to use funds from its IPO for various developmental projects, including clinical trials and production upgrades, but recently terminated an A-share fundraising plan, raising concerns about funding gaps [9] - Prior to the IPO, the controlling shareholder significantly reduced their stake, raising questions about confidence in the company's future and valuation [10][11]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The pharmaceutical industry is significantly influenced by medical insurance payment policies, which have evolved through four stages: moderate growth, rapid expansion, initial cost control, and comprehensive management [1][4][5] - The medical device sector is expected to have a positive outlook in the coming years, with a focus on overseas patent protection, market access, and commercialization capabilities [1][6] - The innovation drug sector is seeing a normalization of overseas expansion, with strong demand for cross-border collaboration and manageable pharmaceutical tariff risks [1][10] Core Insights and Arguments - The investment outlook for the pharmaceutical industry in 2026 is divided into four parts: overall industry investment views, consumer healthcare and bioproducts, pharmaceutical and biotechnology, and medical devices and services [2] - The first three quarters of 2025 showed a mixed performance among pharmaceutical companies, with the innovative drug sector performing relatively well, while medical devices and retail showed improved growth rates [1][8] - The consensus on high-quality development indicates a slowdown across different terminals, with online channels performing better [1][9] Investment Opportunities and Risks - The integration and mergers within the industry are expected to create new cyclical opportunities, particularly for CXO companies with high overseas business ratios [1][12] - The traditional Chinese medicine sector is undergoing positive changes, with companies focusing on inventory reduction and improving terminal sales speed [1][15][16] - The blood products industry is facing challenges due to changes in supply-demand dynamics, but there are opportunities in expanding application scenarios due to aging populations and clinical awareness [1][17] Additional Important Insights - The vaccine industry is under pressure but presents investment opportunities in overseas expansion, new product development, and mergers [3][18] - The retail pharmaceutical sector is currently focused on inventory adjustments and diversification, with a potential for valuation improvement through multi-channel strategies [20] - The medical circulation industry is lagging due to regulatory pressures but shows resilience among leading companies [21] Future Trends and Developments - The internationalization of Chinese innovative drugs is characterized by a significant increase in licensing deals and global competitiveness [26][28] - The medical device sector is rebounding after a period of decline, with growth driven by innovation, overseas expansion, and mergers [35] - High-value consumables and IVD sectors are expected to see improvements as procurement policies optimize and domestic manufacturers grow [38][47] Conclusion - Overall, the medical device and service sectors are projected to have substantial growth potential, despite current challenges, with optimism for future investment opportunities [50]

（责任编辑：刘畅 ） 注：如提及个股仅供参考，不代表投资建议。指数/基金短期涨跌幅及历史表现仅供分析参考，不 预示未来表现。市场观点随市场环境变化而变动，不构成任何投资建议或承诺。文中提及指数仅供参 考，不构成任何投资建议，也不构成对基金业绩的预测和保证。如需购买相关基金产品，请选择与风险 等级相匹配的产品。基金有风险，投资需谨慎。 每日经济新闻 湘财证券指出，近期国内疫苗行业新疫苗进展频繁，政策端也积极支持行业发展。流感活动度显著 升高，达到近三年同期最高水平，显示出流感及相关疫苗市场的紧迫需求。关注流感疫苗、肺炎球菌疫 苗和带疱疫苗的结构性机会，长期来看，创新和国际化将是疫苗企业的核心竞争力。 疫苗ETF（159643）跟踪的是疫苗生科指数（980015），该指数从市场中选取涉及生物制品、生命 科学工具和服务等领域的上市公司证券作为指数样本，重点关注疫苗研发、生产及相关服务的企业。成 分股具有显著的创新性和成长性特征，能够综合反映疫苗与生物科技行业的整体表现及技术发展动态。 【免责声明】本文仅代表作者本人观点，与和讯网无关。和讯网站对文中陈述、观点判断保持中立，不对所包含内容 的准确性、可靠性或完整性提供 ...

Group 1: Private Equity and Investment Trends - In November, the number of newly registered private equity products surged by nearly 30%, marking the second-highest monthly registration this year, with a total of 1,285 products registered [1] - Stock strategy products dominated the private equity market, accounting for 66.07% of the total, with the top firms being Shiji Qianyan and Xing Shi Investment [1] Group 2: Silver Market Dynamics - Silver prices have increased by over 90% this year, driven by strong demand from cultural and industrial sectors, alongside tight supply conditions [2] - India, the largest consumer of silver, has seen a significant rise in demand, with approximately 4,000 tons consumed annually, primarily for jewelry and artifacts [2] - The global silver supply has been under pressure, with a decline in silver mine production over the past decade, leading to a forecasted price of $100 per ounce by the end of next year [2] Group 3: DRAM Market and AI Impact - A new storage chip price surge is driven by AI and server applications, with predictions that 70% of DRAM capacity will be consumed by AI-related demands by 2027 [3] - The price of DDR4 memory chips has been rising, with a reported increase of 10.73% for a specific type, while NAND market prices are also experiencing upward adjustments [3] Group 4: Polysilicon Production Trends - Major polysilicon manufacturers are reducing production as year-end approaches, with November output at 114,600 tons, a decrease of 14.48% from October [4] - The anticipated production for December is expected to decline further, indicating a potential inventory accumulation pressure in the market [4] Group 5: Mobile Robotics and AI Integration - The mobile robotics industry is experiencing accelerated growth due to advancements in AI and wireless charging technologies, enhancing operational efficiency and expanding application scenarios [5] Group 6: Pig Farming Market Conditions - Pig farmers are facing significant losses, with reported losses of approximately 200 yuan per pig sold, driven by cyclical market pressures [6] - Analysts predict a potential decline in pig prices post-Spring Festival due to reduced demand, although a temporary price increase may occur around the winter solstice [6] Group 7: Domestic HPV Vaccine Launch - The first domestically produced nine-valent HPV vaccine has been launched in Beijing, providing a more comprehensive and cost-effective option for cervical cancer prevention [7] Group 8: Real Estate Market Developments - Beijing Lianjia has been deregistering multiple branch companies, indicating potential restructuring or downsizing within the real estate brokerage sector [8] Group 9: Automotive Technology Innovations - Li Auto has launched its first AI glasses, enhancing its product offerings and marking a significant step in diversifying from smart vehicles to wearable technology [9] Group 10: Financial and Investment Activities - LeEco plans to invest 180 million yuan in stock trading to generate additional revenue, despite facing significant debt levels [10] - Godson Technology is set to establish a semiconductor industry fund with a total scale of no less than 200 million yuan, focusing on critical equipment and materials [11]

（责任编辑：马欣） 康希诺首次公开发行股票募集资金总额为52.01亿元，扣除发行费用后，募集资金净额为49.79亿元。康 希诺最终募集资金净额较原计划多39.79亿元。康希诺于2020年8月6日发布的招股说明书显示，该公司 计划募集资金10亿元，分别用于"生产基地二期建设""在研疫苗开发""疫苗追溯、冷链物流体系及信息 系统建设""补充流动资金"。 康希诺首次公开发行股票的发行费用为2.21亿元，其中保荐及承销费用2.05亿元。 中信证券投资有限公司（参与跟投的保荐机构相关公司）获配股票数量为49.60万股，占本次发行总股 数的2.00%，跟投金额为1.04亿元。 中国经济网北京12月3日讯 康希诺(688185.SH)今日股价下跌，截至收盘报65.63元，跌幅2.50%。 康希诺于2020年8月13日在上交所科创板上市，发行数量为2480万股，发行价格209.71元/股，保荐机构 （主承销商）为中信证券，保荐代表人为焦延延、马可；联席主承销商为中金公司，副主承销商为渤海 证券。该股目前处于破发状态。 ...

Core Insights - The forum focused on innovative vaccine development, particularly addressing the challenges and advancements in the field, with a strong emphasis on collaboration between academia and industry [1] Group 1: Vaccine Development Focus - The forum highlighted the urgent need for vaccines against "superbugs," specifically targeting Klebsiella pneumoniae, which has a mortality rate of 40%-50% and causes approximately 800,000 deaths globally each year [2] - The research team from the Army Medical University has identified effective protective components from 6,000 candidate molecules, achieving over 80% protection in pneumonia models against clinical strains of Klebsiella pneumoniae [2] - The collaboration between the Army Medical University and Kangtai Biotech aims to develop the first international vaccine for Klebsiella pneumoniae using reverse vaccinology techniques [2] Group 2: Hepatitis B Vaccine Innovations - The forum discussed the new applications of hepatitis B vaccines in chronic hepatitis B treatment, emphasizing their role in improving anti-HBs seroconversion rates and reducing HBsAg relapse rates [3] - Kangtai Biotech is developing a vaccine aimed at preventing relapse in hepatitis B patients, marking a significant shift from traditional vaccine applications focused solely on healthy populations [3] - If successful, Kangtai Biotech could become the first company in China to offer a comprehensive hepatitis B solution covering prevention, treatment, and relapse prevention [3] Group 3: Multivalent Vaccine Advancements - The forum underscored the importance of multivalent vaccines as a core development direction in preventive vaccines [4] - Kangtai Biotech has developed China's first domestic quadrivalent vaccine and the world's first dual-vector 13-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine, both of which have been included in the Chinese Pharmacopoeia [4] - The dual-vector 13-valent vaccine has been registered in countries like Indonesia and Nicaragua, playing a key role in Kangtai Biotech's internationalization strategy [4]

Group 1: Automotive Industry - Changan Automobile plans to invest 225 million yuan to enter the robotics sector, establishing Changan Tian Shu Intelligent Robot Technology Co., Ltd. with a total registered capital of 450 million yuan [2][3] - The new company aims to leverage humanoid robot technology to drive Changan's strategic transformation from a traditional automaker to an "intelligent technology ecosystem platform" [3] - The humanoid robotics sector is seen as a significant growth opportunity, with Changan's strong position in data accumulation, supply chain integration, and financial strength potentially leading to enhanced valuation and business synergies in the long term [3][4] Group 2: Vaccine Industry - The vaccine industry continues to see breakthroughs in internationalization and research, with companies like Kangtai Biotech and Zhifei Biological making significant progress in vaccine development [6][9] - The demand for flu vaccines is expected to rise, especially among high-risk groups, as the seasonal flu activity increases [8][9] - The vaccine sector is experiencing structural differentiation, with a focus on innovation and international expansion as key strategies for long-term growth [14][15] Group 3: Medical Services - The medical services sector has shown resilience, with a recent increase in demand driven by seasonal illnesses, despite ongoing cost control pressures from insurance policies [21] - The State Council's initiative to promote provincial-level medical insurance coordination is expected to enhance the efficiency of healthcare resources and provide structural opportunities for the medical industry [19][20] - Investment recommendations focus on high-growth companies in the pharmaceutical outsourcing and consumer healthcare sectors, indicating a positive outlook for the medical services industry [21]