Group 1 - The Fudan University Sustainable Development Research Center released the carbon price index for May 2025, indicating expected buy and sell prices for national carbon emission allowances (CEA) at 78.37 CNY/ton and 82.66 CNY/ton respectively, with a midpoint of 80.52 CNY/ton [1] - The buy price index decreased by 7.70%, the sell price index decreased by 7.32%, and the midpoint price index decreased by 7.51% [1] Group 2 - The research center provided price expectations for green certificates (GEC) for 2024 and 2025, with the price for centralized projects in May 2025 expected to be 5.20 CNY/unit, showing a significant increase compared to previous months [2] - The price for distributed projects in May 2025 is expected to be 4.87 CNY/unit, and for biomass power generation, it is expected to be 4.48 CNY/unit, indicating an overall increase in green certificate prices [2] Group 3 - The National Energy Administration announced the launch of the green certificate cancellation function, enhancing the transparency and regulation of the green power consumption management system [3] - In April, the average closing price of CEA was 82.26 CNY/ton, down 6.42% from March, while the average daily trading volume of carbon allowances increased significantly to 23.31 million tons, nearly doubling from March [3]

市场活跃度攀升,综合价格即将跌破80元 全国碳市场行情简报 (2025年第60期) 国泰君安期货 发布日期:2025-04-18 今日 2新纳入行业2024年度履约不设配额缺口,全国碳市场缺口略有下调,但对供需平衡, 影响有限;扩固方案带来短期情绪利空,或加速强制流通配额释放,综合价格短期支 撑位76元/吨附近。 3关注2024年度配额预分配期限前后（4月20日）的成交活跃度：强制流通配额耗尽节 点延后,强势上涨动能或出现在25Q2及以后。 风险 1、企业非理性导致配额到期作废；2、企业不看好未来市场选择全部地售变现；3、企 业2023年度、2024年度未足额履约;4、未考虑跨行业回购配额规避结转。 图表1:全国碳配额(CEA)最新行情信息-现货 策略 建议缺口企业在76至80元/吨区间分批逢低采购 (1)2025年剩余40%强制流通配额只能满足部分市场需求，约0.5°0.6亿吨市场需求或由 盈余企业自愿卖出来满足,2025年市场抛压将小于2024年四季度。 核心 逻辑 | | 碳配额19-20 | 碳配额21 | 碳配额22 | 碳配额23 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | ...

全国碳币场行情简报 (2025年第58期) 国泰君安斯员 发布日期:2025-04-16 预分配临近,市场逐渐活跃,CEA价格弱稳 今日 1、CEA:CEA23弱稳运行,其余年份配额暂无成交;挂牌成交约10万吨,无大宗成交 行情 2、CCER: 挂牌协议成交量0.01万吨,成交均价93.8元/吨（-0.07%） 1、新行业配额方案超预期宽松:2、企业非理性导致配额到期作废;3、企业不看好未 来市场选择全部抛售变现;4、企业2023年度、2024年度未足额履约;5、未考虑新纳 风险 入行业配额结转。 图表1:全国碳配额(CEA)最新行情信息-现货 | | 碳配额19-20 | 碳配额21 | 碳配额22 | 碳配额23 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 收盘价(元/吨) | 83. 50 | 80. 44 | 88. 00 | 82. 06 | | 涨跌幅(%) | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | -0.77% | | 新旧价差(元/吨) | | -3.06 | 7.56 | -5.94 | | 大宗成交均价(元/吨) | #N/A | #N/A | #N/ ...

全国碳市场行情简报 (2025年第52期) 国泰君安期货 发布日期:2025-04-09 全国温室气体自愿减排交易系统实时行情上线 今日 (1)2025年剩余40%强制流通配额只能满足部分市场需求,约0.5~0.6亿吨市场需 求或由盈余企业自愿卖出来满足,2025年市场抛压将小于2024年四季度。 2新纳入行业2024年度履约不设配额缺口,全国碳市场缺口略有下调,但对供 核心 需平衡影响有限;扩围方案带来短期情绪利空，或加速强制流通配额释放，综 逻辑 合价格短期支撑位86元附近,跌破后下方看76元/吨。 (3)关注2024年度配额预分配期限前后（4月14日）的成交活跃度；强制流通配 额耗尽节点延后,强势上涨动能或出现在25Q2及以后。 1、新行业配额方案超预期宽松;2、企业非理性导致配额到期作废;3、企业 风险 不看好未来市场选择全部抛售变现;4、企业2023年度、2024年度未足额履 约;5、未考虑新纳入行业配额结转。 图表 1:全国碳配额(CEA)最新行情信息-现货 | | 碳配额19-20 | 碳配额21 | 碳配额22 | 碳配额23 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | ...

Core Insights - The national carbon market in China is a government-led trading system aimed at reducing carbon emissions, officially launched on July 16, 2021, covering 2,225 enterprises in the power sector with an annual emission coverage of approximately 4.5 billion tons, making it the largest carbon trading market globally [1][2] Group 1: Key Terminology - Carbon Emission Allowance (CEA) allows companies to emit a specific amount of CO₂, where 1 allowance equals 1 ton of CO₂ equivalent (tCO₂e). Companies must hold enough allowances to cover their emissions by the end of the compliance period to avoid penalties [3][4] - Carbon Allowance refers to the emissions permits allocated to companies by the government, with a future trend of decreasing free allowances and increasing paid allowances to incentivize emission reductions [5] - Carbon Trading involves the buying and selling of carbon allowances or reduction credits, primarily through agreements, with potential future inclusion of financial instruments like futures and options [6] Group 2: Market Mechanisms - CCER (China Certified Emission Reduction) represents carbon credits generated from projects like renewable energy and forestry, which can offset up to 5% of a company's emissions [7] - The MRV (Monitoring, Reporting, Verification) system ensures the accuracy of carbon emission data, serving as the foundation for fair market operations [8] - Carbon Price is the market price for carbon allowances, currently ranging from 50 to 80 RMB per ton, significantly lower than the EU price of approximately 80 Euros per ton, with expectations of gradual increases as policies tighten [9][10] Group 3: Goals and Strategies - Peak Carbon refers to the point at which CO₂ emissions reach their highest level before beginning to decline, with China committing to achieve this by 2030 [11][12] - Carbon Neutrality aims for net-zero emissions by 2060 through emission reductions, carbon sinks, and technological innovations [15] - Carbon Sink involves natural processes, such as forests absorbing CO₂, which can be developed into carbon credit projects [16] Group 4: Financial and Regulatory Aspects - Carbon Finance encompasses financial innovations related to the carbon market, enhancing market liquidity and reducing compliance costs for companies [17] - Carbon Footprint measures the total carbon emissions produced directly or indirectly by individuals, companies, or products throughout their lifecycle [18] - Carbon Border Tax is a proposed tariff on high-carbon imports to balance domestic and international carbon costs, with potential implications for high-carbon exporting companies [19] Group 5: Monitoring and Verification - Carbon Monitoring utilizes technologies like sensors and satellites to track carbon emissions and greenhouse gas concentrations, with pilot projects already underway in 16 cities [20][21] - Carbon Accounting systematically quantifies carbon emissions for companies or products over a specific period, adhering to international standards [22] - Carbon Verification involves third-party audits of carbon emission reports to ensure data accuracy, a requirement for major emitters in the national carbon market [27]

Investment Rating - The report rates the electric equipment industry as "Positive" [3] Core Insights - The Guangdong carbon market has achieved a near balance between carbon emission allowances issued and actual emissions, although it remains slightly loose. The total carbon emissions from key industries such as steel, cement, paper, petrochemicals, civil aviation, and electricity are approximately 355-396 million tons, with average allowances issued around 425-451 million tons [1][2] - By 2025, significant changes are expected in the industries under the Guangdong carbon market, with steel and cement likely exiting the market to comply with national regulations, while the textile industry is anticipated to be included with a control scale of approximately 1.5-4 million tons [2] Summary by Sections Section 1: Background and Mechanism of Guangdong Carbon Market - The Guangdong carbon market was established to address climate change, with a goal to reduce carbon emissions by 40%-45% by 2020 compared to 2005 levels. The market began operations in 2013, covering key industries [11][12] - The total carbon emission allowances represent 75%-90% of Guangdong's total emissions (excluding Shenzhen), with the power generation sector being the largest contributor [12][13] Section 2: Key Issues in the Guangdong Carbon Market - The report analyzes the carbon emissions and theoretical allowances for each regulated industry, noting that the overall emissions are directly related to production capacity and utilization rates [38] - The carbon market has seen a gradual expansion in the number of regulated industries, with the threshold for inclusion being lowered over time [17][18] - The distribution of allowances combines free and paid methods, with a significant portion of allowances being issued for free to encourage compliance and reduce costs for industries [19][22]

资讯汇总 [table_Header]2025.02.18 【双碳周报】全国碳市场碳排放额累计成交量大幅上升 摘要： 产业研究中心 [Table_Report] 往期回顾 【科技周报】科学家开发单晶超晶格制备新策略 2025.02.15 | [Table_Authors] | | | --- | --- | | | 赵子健(分析师) | | | 021-38032292 | | | zhaozijian@gtjas.com | | 登记编号 | S0880520060003 | | | 王佳(分析师) | | | 010-83939781 | | | wangjia025750@gtjas.com | | 登记编号 | S0880524010001 | 【上海产经观察】上海优化营商环境 8.0 行动方 案发布 2025.02.12 【产业观察】中国证监会发布《关于资本市场做 好金融"五篇大文章"的实施意见》 2025.02.12 【双碳周报】全国碳市场碳排放额累计成交量大 幅下降 2025.02.12 【ESG 产业观察】资本市场做好金融"五篇大文 章"的实施意见发布，2024 年我国完成国土绿化 面积超 1 ...