C）中长期观点。中长期来看。美联储仍处于宽松周期、大国博弈加剧和逆全球化趋势将令全球地缘不确定性持续、美国巨额债务和美联储独立性削弱将进一步增 加美元信用风险、全球央行/机构/居民的配置需求有望延续、故金价中长期重心大概率继续上移，建议长线投资者以逢低做多配置为主。 the Sept 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 ITG国贸期货 贵金属数据日报 | | | | | 国贸期货研究院 | | 投资咨询号: Z0013700 | | | 2025/12/29 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | 贵金属与新能源研究中心 白素娜 | | 从业资格号:F3023916 | | | | | | 日期 | 伦敦金现 | 伦敦银现 | COMEX黄金 | COMEX白银 | AU2602 | AG2602 | AU (T+D) | AG (T+D) | | 内外盘金 银15点价 | | (美元/盎司) | (美元/盎司) | (美元/盎司) | (美元/盎司) | (元/克) | (元/千克) | ( ...

近期热度拉满的贵金属市场，突发大震荡。 伦敦现货黄金一度升至4500美元/盎司上方，最高至4550.52美元/盎司，随后震荡下跌，一度跌破4500美元/盎司关口，最低至4471.25美元/盎司，较日内最 高点位跌近80美元/盎司。截至北京时间12月29日12:00，报4516.06美元/盎司，跌0.36%。 截至北京时间12月29日12:00，白银坐上"过山车"，先大涨超5%，再转跌超3%，后涨超1%；黄金日内最大跌幅近80美元/盎司。 元旦假期临近，贵金属市场波动为何突然加剧？短期回调是否意味着上涨行情终结？业内人士对2026年贵金属后市又有哪些预判？ 贵金属市场大震荡 Wind数据显示，伦敦现货白银在大涨超5%逼近84美元/盎司的历史新高后直线走低，一度转跌超3%，随后逐步拉升。截至北京时间12月29日12:00，报 80.37美元/盎司，涨1.31%。 预计后市易涨难跌 尽管短期贵金属价格遭遇回调，但业内人士继续看好后市。 展望2026年，南华期货贵金属新能源研究组负责人夏莹莹表示，贵金属将在美联储独立性危机、美元信用衰退与白银现货危机三重叙事下维持易涨难跌格 局。 黄金方面，美元体系弱化持续推升配置价 ...

北京时间29日早间，国际贵金属市场短线冲高后跳水。白银价格一度突破每盎司80美元大关，随后在剧 烈波动中大幅回落。 具体来看，伦敦白银现货一度涨超5%，但随后转跌，跌幅一度超5%；COMEX白银期货一度涨超7%， 随后同样转跌。黄金期货、现货均由涨转跌。 数据来源：Wind 数据来源：Wind 盛宝银行首席投资策略师查鲁·查纳纳表示，今年贵金属价格受到降息和对冲地缘政治及财政不确定性 等多重因素的推动。 查纳纳称，叠加市场对供应方面的担忧，贵金属价格走势已经呈抛物线式上涨。但年底尤其是白银价格 近乎垂直的飙升，增加了价格波动加剧的风险。短期来看，风险主要来自技术面和仓位波动。 彭博社分析指出，与黄金不同，白银还具有许多实用特性，其在太阳能电池板、人工智能数据中心、电 子产品等一系列产品的中发挥着不可替代的作用。由于目前库存接近历史最低水平，存在供应短缺的风 险，可能会对多个行业造成影响。 马斯克周六在社交媒体平台上回应了一系列关于供应短缺的推文。他称，"这不好。许多工业流程都需 要白银。" 此外，技术指标显示，白银的涨势可能过猛过快。该金属的14天相对强弱指数(RSI)读数接近80。市场 分析人士认为，高于7 ...

欢迎分享给你的朋友！ 出品 | 中国能源报（c n e n e rg y） 责编 | 李慧颖 纽约白银期货和伦敦白银现货价格狂飙后跳水。 1 2月29日，本周第一个交易日亚洲交易时段，贵金属价格波动加剧，纽约白银期货和伦 敦白银现货价格均涨破每盎司80美元整数关口，再创盘中新高，随后价格短线跳水，伦敦 白银现货价格由涨超5%转为跌超2%。近期，白银价格快速上涨过程中包含大量投机头 寸，短期大幅波动的风险较大。 来源：央视财经微信公众号 End ...

Core Viewpoint - The precious metals market has experienced significant volatility, with sharp price fluctuations observed in silver, platinum, palladium, and gold, raising concerns about potential market corrections and risks associated with speculative trading [9][10]. Group 1: Price Movements - COMEX silver initially surged over 7% but later turned to a slight increase [2] - Spot platinum dropped over 7% during trading but later narrowed its decline to 3.6% [3] - NYMEX platinum fell more than 9% before recovering to a decline of less than 5% [4] - NYMEX palladium initially rose about 5% but then plummeted, with a peak drop exceeding 6% [6] - Both gold futures and spot prices shifted from gains to losses [7] Group 2: Weekly Performance - Last Friday, the precious metals market saw a broad surge, with COMEX gold futures rising 1.31% to $4,562 per ounce, accumulating a weekly gain of 3.98% [9] - Spot gold increased by 1.12% to $4,531.1 per ounce, with a weekly rise of 4.44% [9] - COMEX silver futures skyrocketed by 11.15% to $79.68 per ounce, with a weekly increase of 18.06% [9] - Spot silver surged 10.24% to $79.196 per ounce, accumulating a weekly gain of 17.87% and a year-to-date increase of 175% [9] - Spot palladium rose 14.24% to $1,923.4 per ounce, with a weekly gain of 12.63% [9] - Spot platinum increased by 10.31% to $2,450.91 per ounce, accumulating a weekly rise of 24.31% [9] Group 3: Market Analysis and Predictions - Analysts warn that precious metal prices are at unsustainable levels, with a potential correction expected as enthusiasm for gold wanes, predicting silver prices may drop to around $42 per ounce by the end of next year [9] - The chief analyst at CITIC Futures noted that while long-term bullish factors exist, the rapid short-term price increases have been excessively traded, leading to heightened speculative sentiment and potential risks to market stability [9] - Market analyst Tony Sycamore described the silver market as experiencing a "generational bubble," driven by strong demand and supply imbalances, alongside expectations of multiple interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve by 2026 [10] - To mitigate market risks, the Shanghai Futures Exchange issued notifications to encourage risk management and set trading margin requirements and price limits for the upcoming New Year period [10]

近期热度拉满的贵金属市场，突发大震荡。 截至北京时间12月29日12:00，白银坐上"过山车"，先大涨超5%，再转跌超3%，后涨超1%；黄金日内最大跌幅近80美元/盎司。 元旦假期临近，贵金属市场波动为何突然加剧？短期回调是否意味着上涨行情终结？业内人士对2026年贵金属后市又有哪些预判？ 贵金属市场大震荡 铂金价格盘中跳水，一度跌近8%，随后跌幅收窄。截至北京时间12月29日12:00，报2434.30美元/盎司，跌0.09%。 | < ロ | 现货铂金(美元/盎司) | | | | Q | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | SPTPTUSDOZ.IDC | | | | | | 2434.30 "f | | 2436.60 | 息量 | | O | | -2.30 | -0.09% 开盘 | 2473.50 | 现手 | | 0 | | 最高价 2478.50 | 色 持 | | 外盘 0 | | 0 | | 最低价 2243.80 | 招 仓 | | 0 内 盘 | | 0 | | 分时 五日 | 目K | 周K | 月K | 更多 | (0) | | 营 ...

贵金属周报 2025 年 12 月 29 日 贵金属狂飙，需系好安全带 从业资格号：F03112296 投资咨询号：Z0021040 从业资格号：F0297587 投资咨询号：Z0011509 黄蕾 从业资格号：F0307990 投资咨询号：Z0011692 高慧 从业资格号：F03099478 投资咨询号：Z0017785 王工建 从业资格号：F3084165 投资咨询号：Z0016301 赵凯熙 核心观点及策略 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 李婷 何天 从业资格号：F03120615 投资咨询号：Z0022965 敬请参阅最后一页免责声明 1 / 12 ⚫ 上周贵金属价格加速上涨，不断刷新历史新高。在上周一 国际金价突破前期高点之后，贵金属普遍进入加速上涨阶 段。上周公布的美国经济数据整体偏强，虽然市场对于1 月降息预期较弱，但对于明年的降息预期仍达2-3次，整 体处于货币持续宽松的环境。日本在意外加息之后，继续 释放干预日元的信号，日元走强对美元形成一定的压制。 ⚫ 目前贵金属价格表现强势，除了美元指数维持弱势运行和 美联储独立性受损，将持续货币宽松为稀贵金属提供宏观 支撑之外，铂钯 ...

股指：指数连续上涨，资金情绪高涨 上周，A股市场持续上涨，Wind全A收涨2.78%，日均成交额1.97万亿元，较12月均值显著放量。中证 1000上涨3.76% ，中证500上涨4.03% ，沪深300指数上涨1.95% ，上证50上涨1.37%。资金情绪高涨， 融资余额周度增加460亿元，至2.52万亿元。但由于指数仍未摆脱前期震荡中枢，期权隐含波动率低位 震荡，1000IV收于19.32%，300IV收于16.14%。股债比较来看，股票市场估值小幅抬升，Wind全A估值 22.27倍，债权收益率基本持平，10年国债活跃券收益率1.84%，权益市场更受青睐。宏观因素有限，但 热点题材不断涌现，推动A股连续上涨。 资金层面的热点是A500ETF在12月获得大幅申购。据统计，宽基型ETF12月净申购1100亿元，其中近 1020亿元为A500ETF。A500指数长期与沪深300走势高度相关，相关系数超过0.98，细微差别在于A500 指数成长标的稍多，例如电力设备、电子等板块。在A500ETF获得大幅申购的同时，我们关注到Top5 会员单位IF净空头近期显著上涨，二者可能存在对冲关联。因此，相关资金可能并不会 ...

格隆汇12月29日｜贵金属价格回落，现货黄金失守4510美元/盎司，跌0.57%；纽约期金失守4530美元/ 盎司，跌0.53%；纽约期银失守79美元/盎司，涨2.11%；现货白银抹去逾6%的涨幅，跌2%报77.3美元/ 盎司；钯金期货跌1%，报2002.00美元/盎司。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in gold and silver prices has created a tense atmosphere in the market, with gold surpassing $4,526 per ounce and silver reaching $75 per ounce, leading to rapid re-evaluation of positions by traders [1][3]. Market Dynamics - The price increase is driven by multiple factors including geopolitical uncertainties, a temporary weakening of the dollar, and expectations of declining real interest rates, which have disrupted traditional asset allocation models [5]. - The demand for silver from industrial sectors such as photovoltaics and electronics is increasing, raising concerns about supply chain bottlenecks and inventory adjustments [5][9]. Regulatory Environment - Exchanges and public funds are facing dual constraints: physical limits on positions imposed by exchanges and prohibitions on high leverage by public funds, creating a complex situation where relaxing purchase limits could lead to default risks [3][5]. - Notifications from exchanges urging members to strengthen risk management highlight the regulatory focus on position limits and compliance issues [3]. Investor Behavior - Ordinary investors exhibit polarized views, with some seeing gold as a safe haven while others fear a potential bubble, reflecting broader anxieties about household finances [5][9]. - Experts advise investors to focus on asset allocation and risk management, emphasizing the importance of understanding personal investment experience and financial needs [7]. Supply Chain Implications - Businesses are considering delaying inventory replenishment or switching to alternative materials due to compressed profit margins, which could amplify changes in the entire supply chain and impact gold and silver prices [7][9]. - The logistics capabilities of major banks are being expanded to capture profit opportunities from liquidity and settlement capabilities, indicating a shift in market participant risk preferences [7].