国泰君安期货·能源化工 尿素周度报告 国泰君安期货研究所 杨鈜汉 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021541 日期：2025年08月10日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint 资料来源：钢联，隆众资讯，国泰君安期货研究 本周尿素观点：区间运行 | | • | 本周(20250731-0806)，中国尿素生产企业产量：132.85万吨，较上期跌2.63万吨，环比跌1.94%。周期内新增4家企业装置停车，停车企业恢复4 | | --- | --- | --- | | 供应 | | 家（装置）企业，同时延续上周期的装置变化，本周产量小幅减少。下周，中国尿素周产量预计135万吨附近，较本期小幅增加。下个周期暂 无企业装置计划停车，1家停车企业恢复生产，考虑到短时的企业故障发生，延续上周期的变化，预期下个周期产量增加的概率较大。（隆众 | | | | 资讯） | | 需求 | • | 内需方面，内需短期持续偏弱。北方地区农业追肥需求基本结束，在今年农业需求总量有需求前置的背景下，追肥需求的同比增速出现明显 下滑。此外，复合肥行业近期产 ...

Group 1 - The Indian government has denied reports of suspending defense procurement negotiations with the United States, stating that all procurement cases are proceeding as per existing procedures [1] - Prior reports suggested that India had paused new arms and aircraft procurement plans from the U.S., seen as a sign of dissatisfaction in U.S.-India relations due to tariff issues [1] - U.S. President Trump imposed an additional 25% tariff on Indian goods as a punitive measure for India's purchase of Russian oil, raising the total tariffs faced by Indian exports to 50% [1] Group 2 - The U.S. is India's largest export market, with total exports to the U.S. projected to be nearly $87 billion in 2024 [2] - Experts warn that if the 50% tariffs are implemented, it could significantly impact India's economy, particularly affecting industries such as textiles, automotive parts, steel, and gemstones [2] - In the context of escalating U.S.-India trade tensions, India appears to be strengthening its cooperation with Russia [3][4] Group 3 - Indian and Russian officials held a meeting on August 6 to discuss deepening industrial cooperation, focusing on areas such as rare earth and critical mineral extraction, aerospace technology, carbon fiber, and 3D printing [4] - The meeting resulted in a signed protocol reaffirming the strategic partnership between India and Russia, committing to enhance industrial and economic collaboration [4]

Core Viewpoint - Xinyangfeng (000902) demonstrated robust growth in its 2025 mid-year report, with significant increases in revenue and net profit, indicating a strong operational performance. Group 1: Operating Overview - The total operating revenue reached 9.398 billion, an increase of 11.63% year-on-year; the net profit attributable to shareholders was 951 million, up 28.98% year-on-year; the net profit after deducting non-recurring items was 912 million, an increase of 28.15% year-on-year [1]. Group 2: Quarterly Data - In the second quarter, total operating revenue was 4.73 billion, a decrease of 6.97% year-on-year; net profit attributable to shareholders was 437 million, an increase of 10.96% year-on-year; net profit after deducting non-recurring items was 412 million, up 7.59% year-on-year [2]. Group 3: Profitability - The company's profitability improved, with a gross margin of 17.34%, an increase of 7.98% year-on-year; the net profit margin was 10.3%, up 17.12% year-on-year, indicating significant progress in cost control and product value enhancement [3]. Group 4: Cost Control - The company excelled in cost control, with total selling, administrative, and financial expenses amounting to 381 million, accounting for 4.05% of revenue, a decrease of 8.64% year-on-year, which further enhances profitability [4]. Group 5: Main Revenue Composition - Conventional compound fertilizers contributed 3.826 billion, accounting for 40.71% of total revenue with a gross margin of 12.56%; new-type compound fertilizers contributed 2.85 billion, accounting for 30.32% of total revenue with a gross margin of 24.48%; phosphate fertilizers contributed 2.311 billion, accounting for 24.59% of total revenue with a gross margin of 19.81%. Sales in South China were the highest at 2.889 billion, accounting for 30.74% of total revenue [5]. Group 6: Cash Flow and Debt - Despite cash and cash equivalents decreasing to 2.173 billion, down 11.51% year-on-year, interest-bearing debt decreased to 1.755 billion, down 5.05% year-on-year. Net cash flow from investment activities increased by 237.32%, mainly due to increased cash flow from the purchase and redemption of financial products. Net cash flow from financing activities decreased by 653.19% due to reduced borrowing compared to the previous year [6]. Group 7: Development Review and Outlook - Xinyangfeng focuses on the production and sales of phosphate and compound fertilizers, with a diversified product line including new energy materials and fine chemicals. The company has a competitive advantage in integrated industrial chains, with production capacities of 10.28 million tons/year for high-concentration phosphate compound fertilizers, 900,000 tons/year for phosphate rock, and 50,000 tons/year for iron phosphate. It is the only company among the top three in the compound fertilizer industry with self-import rights for potash fertilizers. The company has strong brand, channel, and technical service advantages, with a nationwide marketing network and active participation in major national and provincial R&D projects, ensuring its leading position in technological innovation. Overall, Xinyangfeng showed excellent performance in the first half of 2025, with rising revenue and net profit, significantly improved gross and net margins, effective cost control, and stable cash flow, with promising prospects for continued growth [7].

Core Viewpoint - The recent trade dispute between the U.S. and Brazil, initiated by a 50% tariff on various Brazilian imports, presents both challenges and opportunities for Chilean exports to the U.S. [1] Group 1: Trade Dispute Details - On July 30, U.S. President Trump signed an executive order imposing a 50% tariff on multiple products imported from Brazil [1] - The tariff affects 700 product categories, including civilian aircraft, energy, orange juice, precious metals, timber, and fertilizers, which account for 45% of Brazil's total exports to the U.S. [1] Group 2: Implications for Chile - Chilean analysts believe that the trade dispute provides a rare opportunity for Chile to increase its exports to the U.S. by substituting products previously imported from Brazil [1] - Chile can potentially boost its exports of coffee, meat products, and fruits to the U.S. as a result of Brazil's increased tariffs [1] Group 3: Competitive Landscape - Despite the opportunities, there is a risk that Brazil may export its products at lower prices to third countries, including Chile, to mitigate the impact of the tariffs [1] - This could lead to increased competition for similar products in the Chilean market, particularly in chicken and certain agricultural products [1]

Core Viewpoint - China Heartland Fertilizer (01866.HK) reported a 5% year-on-year increase in unaudited consolidated revenue to approximately RMB 12.666 billion for the six months ending June 30, 2025, despite a decline in overall gross profit due to price drops exceeding cost reductions [1] Financial Performance - The overall gross profit decreased by 13% year-on-year, primarily due to a nearly 44% drop in gross profit from urea products, which significantly impacted the company's overall profitability [1] - The unaudited consolidated net profit and net profit attributable to the parent company fell by approximately RMB 1.81 billion and RMB 880 million, representing declines of 19% and 13%, respectively [1] - After excluding non-recurring items, the net profit attributable to the parent company decreased by 9% year-on-year [1] Second Quarter Performance - In the second quarter, product prices showed significant improvement, with urea and melamine prices increasing by 10% and 11% quarter-on-quarter, respectively [1] - The sales volume of compound fertilizer and melamine increased by 29% and 20% quarter-on-quarter, respectively, due to the continued expansion of the sales network [1] - The gross profit for the second quarter increased by 44% quarter-on-quarter, leading to a net profit growth of approximately RMB 2.59 billion, a remarkable increase of 104% [1]

Core Viewpoint - China Heartland Fertilizer (01866) reported a mid-year performance for 2025, showing a revenue of approximately 12.666 billion, a year-on-year increase of about 5%, but a decrease in net profit attributable to shareholders by 12.77% to approximately 599 million [1] Financial Performance - Revenue for the first half of the year was approximately 12.666 billion, reflecting a year-on-year growth of about 5% [1] - Net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 12.77% to approximately 599 million, with basic earnings per share at 51.50 cents [1] - Overall gross profit declined by 13% year-on-year due to a greater decrease in product prices compared to raw material costs, despite a drop in raw material costs [1] Product Performance - Urea products significantly impacted gross profit, with a nearly 44% year-on-year decline in gross profit attributed to falling prices [1] - In the second quarter, product prices showed a notable upward trend, with urea and melamine prices increasing by 10% and 11% respectively [1] - Sales volume for compound fertilizers and melamine increased by 29% and 20% respectively in the second quarter, driven by an expanding sales network [1] Quarterly Performance - The second quarter saw a 44% quarter-on-quarter increase in gross profit, contributing to a net profit increase of approximately 259 million, representing a growth rate of 104% [1]

Core Viewpoint - China Heartlink Fertilizer (01866) reported a mid-year performance for 2025, showing a revenue of approximately 12.666 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of about 5%, while net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 12.77% to approximately 599 million yuan [1] Financial Performance - Revenue for the first half of the year was approximately 12.666 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of about 5% [1] - Net profit attributable to the parent company was approximately 599 million yuan, representing a decrease of 12.77% compared to the previous year [1] - Basic earnings per share were reported at 51.50 cents [1] Cost and Margin Analysis - Despite a decline in raw material costs, the overall gross profit margin decreased by 13% due to a greater decline in product prices compared to cost reductions [1] - The gross profit margin for urea products fell nearly 44%, significantly impacting the overall gross profit of the group [1] Second Quarter Performance - In the second quarter, product prices showed a notable improvement, with urea and melamine prices increasing by 10% and 11% respectively on a quarter-on-quarter basis [1] - Sales volume for compound fertilizers and melamine increased by 29% and 20% respectively, driven by an expanding sales network [1] - The gross profit for the second quarter increased by 44% quarter-on-quarter, contributing to a net profit growth of approximately 259 million yuan, marking a substantial increase of 104% [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - In July 2025, the urea price remained in a narrow - range operation. With the weakening of domestic agricultural demand, inventory destocking was slow, and the basis and inter - monthly basis were weak. However, the absolute price of urea was low, and both fixed - bed and gas - based processes were in losses, showing a pattern of low valuation and weak drivers. Although there were export rumors driving price rebounds, the cost support was strengthening, and the downside space for urea was limited. It was recommended to wait and see or pay attention to long - position opportunities on dips [12]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Monthly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Market Review**: In July, the urea price maintained a narrow - range operation. With the weakening of domestic agricultural demand, inventory destocking was slow, and the basis and inter - monthly basis were weak. The low price was accompanied by export rumors that drove price rebounds. The cost support was strengthening, and the downside space was limited [12]. - **Fundamentals** - **Supply**: In July, the domestic production was 6.05 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 20,000 tons, and at a high level year - on - year. The operating rate was 84.3%, showing a decline for three consecutive months. The enterprise profit was still at a low level, limiting the overall operating enthusiasm. The export containerization continued to progress, with 70,000 tons exported in June, and it was expected to further increase [12]. - **Demand**: The production of autumn fertilizers started in July, and the operating rate of compound fertilizers continued to rise, becoming an important support for urea demand. Supported by exports, the enterprise's advance orders were performing well [12]. - **Valuation**: The price difference between domestic and international markets was still large, and the domestic market was significantly undervalued. The price ratio with related nitrogen fertilizers was at a medium - low level, and the spot valuation of urea was low [12]. - **Inventory**: The departure volume from ports was more than the containerization volume. The port inventory this week was 493,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 50,000 tons. The enterprise inventory was 917,300 tons, a month - on - month increase of 58,500 tons, due to the weakening of domestic agricultural demand and the less - than - expected export connection [12]. - **Market Logic**: Currently, the market was in a pattern of low valuation and weak drivers, with strong cost support at the bottom. The price continued to fluctuate, and the volatility decreased significantly. Without additional positive factors, it was difficult to break out of the shock range, and the cost - effectiveness of unilateral participation was not high [12]. - **Strategy**: Wait and see or pay attention to long - position opportunities on dips [12]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **Futures Contracts**: The price of the 09 contract increased from 1,712 to 1,714, a change of 2; the 01 contract increased from 1,682 to 1,736, a change of 54; the 05 contract increased from 1,696 to 1,775, a change of 79. The 9 - 1 spread decreased from 30 to - 22, a change of - 52; the 1 - 5 spread decreased from - 14 to - 39, a change of - 25; the 5 - 9 spread increased from - 16 to 61, a change of 77 [13]. - **Domestic Spot Market**: The spot prices in Shandong, Hebei, and Inner Mongolia decreased, while the price in Henan remained unchanged. The basis in Shandong, Henan, and Hebei all declined [13]. - **Downstream Products**: The prices of compound fertilizers in Shandong and Hubei increased, while the price of melamine decreased. The profit of compound fertilizers in Shandong decreased, the profit of compound fertilizers in Hubei decreased slightly, and the profit of melamine increased [13]. - **International Prices**: The FOB prices in the Arabian Gulf, the Baltic Sea, and other regions increased, and the FOB price in China also increased. The urea export profit increased from 1,002 to 1,187 [13]. 3.3 Profit and Inventory - **Production Profit**: The enterprise profit continued to decline. The profits of fixed - bed, water - coal slurry, and gas - based production all showed a downward trend [32][33]. - **Urea Inventory**: Due to the low price and the boost from Indian tenders, the downstream enthusiasm rebounded, and the enterprise inventory was being destocked. The port inventory decreased, and the enterprise inventory increased slightly [36][37]. 3.4 Supply Side - **Urea Capacity**: There were planned new production capacities in 2024 - 2025, including Anhui Quansheng Chemical, Henan Jinkai Yanhua, etc. [45]. - **Urea Operating Rate**: The operating rate fluctuated downward. Many enterprises carried out maintenance, including Shaanxi Aowei Qianyuan Chemical, Inner Mongolia Wulantai Energy Chemical, etc. There were also planned maintenance in August - September for some enterprises such as Shanxi Lu'an Coal - based Synthetic Oil [47][50][51]. 3.5 Demand Side - **Consumption**: The consumption of urea was affected by factors such as compound fertilizer production, melamine production, and exports. The operating rate of compound fertilizers continued to rise, and the export profit of urea was high [58][81]. - **Terminal Demand**: The terminal demand was related to industries such as plywood, real estate, etc. The export volume of plywood and the real - estate indicators such as housing construction and sales had an impact on the demand for urea [71][74]. - **Export**: The export profit of urea was relatively high, and the export volume was expected to increase. The export volumes of related nitrogen fertilizers such as ammonium sulfate and ammonium chloride also showed certain trends [81][82][88]. 3.6 Option - related - The report presented data on the trading volume, open interest, and other indicators of urea options, as well as the relationship between option volatility and futures prices [97][99][106]. 3.7 Industrial Structure Diagram - The report showed the urea industry chain, research framework analysis mind - map, and the characteristics of the urea industry chain. It also provided an overview of the seasonal demand for fertilizers in different regions of China and major countries around the world [109][112][114].

工业刚需托底盘面 【冠通研究】 制作日期：2025 年 8 月 8 日 【策略分析】 今日低开高走，日内震荡偏弱。现货市场及交投情绪疲软，受出口消息的 影响，大颗粒小颗粒价格走势背离。基本面来看，供应端有小幅减产预期，近 期日产维持在 19 万吨左右的水平，减产占比低，目前暂不能改变供应过剩格 局，需求端，农业需求零星拿货为主，复合肥工厂开工率继续攀升，且预计将 持续上行，开工负荷拉升后，后期对尿素需求增加，但目前市场情绪均不高， 工厂以适量拿货为主，预售单的情况下，不急于原料的采购，并且秋季复合肥 以高磷复合肥为主。本期装置检修增加，尿素转为库存去化，出口消息扰动盘 面价格波动，但数据不及预期，行情下挫。目前下游普遍观望，情绪跟进较为 谨慎，并且复合肥工厂后期预计不会集中拿货了，短期偏空震荡为主，但后续 依然有工业需求的托底，后续行情下方空间有限。 0 2000 4000 6000 8000 10000 12000 尿素注册仓单（张） 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 数据来源：Wind、冠通研究咨询部 1400 1800 2200 2600 3000 3400 山东尿素市场主流价 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the company [2][5]. Core Insights - The company achieved a revenue of 9.398 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 11.63%, with a net profit of 951 million yuan, up 28.98% year-on-year [3]. - The performance of the main products is robust, with revenue from phosphate fertilizers increasing by 39.34% year-on-year, while conventional compound fertilizers saw a decline of 6.66%. New-type compound fertilizers grew by 26.83% [3]. - The gross profit margins for phosphate fertilizers, conventional compound fertilizers, and new-type compound fertilizers increased by 4.27, 0.14, and 2.58 percentage points respectively, leading to an overall gross margin increase of 1.28 percentage points to 17.34% [3]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company is a leading producer of phosphate compound fertilizers in China, with a production capacity of 10.28 million tons per year for various high-concentration phosphate fertilizers and 900,000 tons per year for phosphate rock as of the end of 2024 [7]. Product Performance - New-type fertilizers have shown rapid growth, with sales increasing from 548,500 tons in 2018 to 1.38 million tons in 2024, a compound annual growth rate of 16.63%. The proportion of new-type fertilizers in the overall compound fertilizer sales rose from 16.56% in 2018 to 31.67% in 2024 [4]. Capacity Expansion - The company is optimizing its production capacity across the country, including a new project in Aksu, Xinjiang, with a capacity of 350,000 tons per year for new-type fertilizers, and a planned investment in a 1 million tons per year specialized fertilizer project in Huai'an, Anhui [4]. Financial Forecast - The company forecasts net profits of 1.47 billion yuan, 1.68 billion yuan, and 1.91 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding earnings per share (EPS) of 1.15 yuan, 1.31 yuan, and 1.49 yuan [5][11].