【冠通期货研究报告】 内需低位支撑 发布日期：2025 年 10 月 21 日 【行情分析】 今日尿素盘面低开高走，整体偏强。现货市场维持弱稳运行，成交氛围冷清。 山东、河南及河北尿素工厂小颗粒尿素出厂价格范围多在 1490-1540 元/吨。基 本面来看，尿素上游工厂装置检修与复产并行，日产并无明显变化，但同比去年 偏低，原料端动力煤价格持续上行，尿素成本端走强，前期尿素价格下跌至水煤 浆成本线后出现反弹。需求端，市场成交氛围低迷，秋季肥收尾为主，复合肥工 厂降低开工负荷，终端走货以成品库存消化为主，秋季肥逐渐收尾，东北地区开 工推迟至十一月附近，复合肥开工负荷难有大量提升。整体来说，盘面止跌回稳， 天气目前转好，秋季肥收尾过程中，短期农需有低位支撑，但内需难以消化高位 库存，行情弱稳为主。 数据来源：Wind、冠通研究咨询部 现货方面：现货市场维持弱稳运行，成交氛围冷清。山东、河南及河北尿 素工厂小颗粒尿素出厂价格范围多在 1490-1540 元/吨。 投资有风险，入市需谨慎。 本公司具备期货交易咨询业务资格，请务必阅读最后一页免责声明。 2 【期现行情】 期货方面：尿素主力 2601 合约 1597 元 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Salt City Market Supervision Administration has released a report on the quality supervision and inspection of various products, including fertilizers, indicating that all 25 batches of fertilizer products tested were found to be compliant with quality standards [3][4]. Group 1: Product Quality Inspection - The inspection covered 30 types of products, including safety helmets, floor drains, electric mosquito swatters, and explosion-proof electrical appliances [3]. - A total of 25 batches of fertilizer products were tested, and none were found to be non-compliant [3][4]. Group 2: Company and Product Details - The report includes a list of companies and specific products that were part of the quality inspection, detailing product names, brands, specifications, production dates, and manufacturers [4][5]. - Notable companies listed include Wuxi Poly Fertilizer Co., Jiangsu Shuangchang Fertilizer Co., and Jiangsu Shengjiu Agricultural Chemical Co., among others [4][5].

大宗商品研究 能源化工研发报告 尿素日报 2025 年 10 月 21 日 尿素日报 【市场回顾】 1、期货市场：尿素期货宽幅震荡，最终报收 1609（+2/+0.12%）。 2、现货市场：出厂价稳中下调，成交一般，河南出厂报 1500-1510 元/吨，山东小 颗粒出厂报 1490-1500 元/吨，河北小颗粒出厂 1540-1550 元/吨，山西中小颗粒出厂报 1460-1500 元/吨，安徽小颗粒出厂报 1500-1510 元/吨，内蒙出厂报 1400-1470 元/吨。 【重要资讯】 【隆众尿素】10 月 21 日，尿素行业日产 18.25 万吨，较上一工作日增加 0.03 万吨； 较去年同期减少 0.66 万吨；今日开工率 77.99%，较去年同期 84.82%下降 6.83%。 【逻辑分析】 今日，市场情绪表现一般，主流地区尿素现货出厂报价下跌，成交平平。山东地区 主流出厂报价领跌，市场情绪表现一般，工业复合肥开工率略有提升，原料库存充裕， 成品库存偏高，基层订单稀少，刚需补货为主，农业刚需采购，贸易商出货，新单成交 乏力，待发消耗，预计出厂报价弱稳为主；河南地区市场情绪偏低，出厂报价跟涨，贸 易 ...

（文章来源：商务部网站） 根据《中华人民共和国货物进出口管理条例》《化肥进口关税配额管理暂行办法》，商务部制定了 《2026年化肥进口关税配额总量、分配原则及相关程序》，现予公布，请遵照执行。2026年化肥进口关 税配额总量为1365万吨。其中，尿素330万吨；磷酸氢二铵690万吨；复合肥345万吨。 ...

策略 尿素日报 | 2025-10-21 尿素9月出口137万吨 市场分析 价格与基差：2025-10-20，尿素主力收盘1600元/吨（-2）；河南小颗粒出厂价报价：1550 元/吨（0）；山东地区小 颗粒报价：1550元/吨（-10）；江苏地区小颗粒报价：1560元/吨（+0）；小块无烟煤750元/吨（+0），山东基差：-50 元/吨（-8）；河南基差：-50元/吨（+2）；江苏基差：-40元/吨（+2）；尿素生产利润20元/吨（-10），出口利润983元 /吨（+0）。 供应端：截至2025-10-20，企业产能利用率79.67%（0.08%）。样本企业总库存量为161.54 万吨（+17.15），港口样 本库存量为44.60 万吨（+3.10）。 需求端：截至2025-10-20，复合肥产能利用率24.18%（-1.32%）；三聚氰胺产能利用率为55.18%（-10.29%）；尿素 企业预收订单天数6.71日（-0.29）。 尿素现货低价成交好转，部分厂家小幅上调报价后成交降温，再次小幅下调报价。目前部分地区农业秋季肥进行 中，复合肥秋季肥生产收尾，开工率下降，冬小麦所需的复合肥以清库为主，且因秋雨较 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report. 2. Core View - Urea prices have been oscillating at a low level recently, and the spot market remains dull. The potential upward drivers (chemical anti - involution and exports) have not emerged. If there is no further change in exports and domestic agricultural demand weakens, domestic demand may struggle to absorb the high supply pressure, and urea prices may continue to oscillate at a low level. However, the current urea valuation is at a low level, and short - selling is not recommended. The trading strategy is to wait and see (viewpoint score: 0) [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Price Changes - **Futures Prices**: On October 20, UR01 in Shanxi was 1600 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan or 0.12% from the previous day; UR05 was 1675 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan or 0.18%; UR09 was 1708 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan. In Shandong, it was 1550 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; in Henan, it remained unchanged at 1550 yuan/ton [1]. - **Domestic Spot Prices (Small - Granule)**: In Hebei, it was 1580 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan or 0.63%; in the Northeast and Jiangsu, it remained unchanged at 1620 yuan/ton and 1560 yuan/ton respectively [1]. - **Upstream Costs**: The anthracite price in Henan was 1030 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan or 3.00%; in Shanxi, it remained unchanged at 880 yuan/ton [1]. - **Downstream Prices**: The price of compound fertilizer (45%S) in Shandong and Henan remained unchanged at 2900 yuan/ton and 2500 yuan/ton respectively. The melamine price in Shandong and Jiangsu also remained unchanged at 5067 yuan/ton and 5100 yuan/ton respectively [1]. 3.2. Basis and Spread - The basis of Shandong spot - UR was - 125 yuan/ton, down 13 yuan from the previous day. The spread of 01 - 05 was - 75 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan [1]. 3.3. Important Information - On October 15, India's RCF urea import tender received 366 million tons of supplies from 25 suppliers. The lowest CFR price was 402 US dollars/ton on the west coast and 395 US dollars/ton on the east coast. In September 2025, urea imports were 76.08 tons, a 2.01% month - on - month decrease; from January to September 2025, the cumulative import volume was 1977.06 tons, a 49.06% year - on - year decrease. In September, urea exports were 137.12 million tons, a 72.12% month - on - month increase; from January to September 2025, the cumulative export volume was 281.23 million tons, a 1007.70% year - on - year increase [1].

Core Viewpoint - The domestic fertilizer industry is facing intensified competition, leading to a significant decline in urea prices and increased losses for companies due to oversupply and weak demand [1][2][4][6]. Group 1: Market Conditions - Urea prices in North China fell below 1600 RMB per ton in September, with further declines observed post-National Day, reaching 1500-1570 RMB in Shandong and 1490-1520 RMB in Shanxi, marking over a 20% year-on-year drop [1][2]. - The overall urea production capacity in China is projected to reach 7900 million tons by the end of the year, with an expected oversupply of 5-6 million tons [2][6]. - The agricultural demand for urea is limited, with a decrease in summer grain planting area and a slowdown in industrial demand due to the real estate sector's downturn [2][3]. Group 2: Supply and Inventory - The operating rate of urea enterprises is approximately 82.39%, down 3.64 percentage points year-on-year, with a significant increase in urea inventory, reaching 145.98 million tons as of October 5 [4][5]. - The market sentiment remains bearish, with downstream purchasing activity low and a lack of strong demand leading to continuous price declines [3][4]. Group 3: Export Policies - The National Development and Reform Commission has adjusted fertilizer export policies, allowing for a total of 450 million tons to be exported by the end of September, but the allocation of export quotas has favored storage enterprises over production companies [6][7]. - Companies have suggested optimizing the export quota distribution to increase the share for production enterprises and dynamically adjusting export policies based on market conditions [7].

天眼查App显示，近日，内蒙古施尔丰化肥有限公司成立，法定代表人为房旭光，注册资本536.18万人 民币，经营范围为许可项目：肥料生产；农药批发；农药零售。（依法须经批准的项目，经相关部门批 准后方可开展经营活动，具体经营项目以相关部门批准文件或许可证件为准）一般项目：化肥销售；农 作物种子经营（仅限不再分装的包装种子）；初级农产品收购；农副产品销售；普通货物仓储服务（不 含危险化学品等需许可审批的项目）；非居住房地产租赁；住房租赁；机械设备租赁；农业机械租赁； 农业机械服务；饲料原料销售；豆类种植；谷物种植；薯类种植；中草药种植；产业用纺织制成品销 售；草种植；园艺产品种植；农作物病虫害防治服务；林业有害生物防治服务；农业专业及辅助性活 动；城市绿化管理；农业园艺服务；智能农业管理；农业生产托管服务；灌溉服务；食用农产品初加 工；农作物秸秆处理及加工利用服务；畜牧专业及辅助性活动；园林绿化工程施工；技术服务、技术开 发、技术咨询、技术交流、技术转让、技术推广。（除依法须经批准的项目外，凭营业执照依法自主开 展经营活动）。 ...

Group 1 - The company, Batian Co., announced a cash dividend distribution plan for the first half of 2025, proposing a payout of 1.6 RMB per 10 shares to all shareholders, including tax [2] - The record date for the dividend distribution is set for October 27, 2025, while the ex-dividend date is October 28, 2025 [2]

Core Viewpoint - The company has approved a cash dividend distribution plan for the first half of 2025, with a payout of 1.60 yuan per 10 shares to all shareholders [1] Summary by Categories Dividend Distribution - The total share capital is 967,669,957 shares, and the cash dividend will be distributed at a rate of 1.60 yuan per 10 shares, including tax [1] - No bonus shares will be issued, and there will be no capital reserve conversion to increase share capital [1] - The record date for the dividend is set for 2025, with the ex-dividend date also in 2025 [1] Implementation Details - The cash dividends will be credited to shareholders' accounts in 2025, with some A-share shareholders receiving cash dividends directly from the company [1] - Following the dividend distribution, the company will make corresponding adjustments to matters related to equity incentives [1]