仓单 最新 日变化 周变化 出厂价折盘面 日变化 周变化 现货 盘面 最新 品种 项目 铁合金早报 供应 需求 800 1300 1800 2300 01/01 02/01 03/01 04/01 05/01 06/01 07/01 08/01 09/01 10/01 11/01 12/01 硅铁：72%FeSi：出口价格：天津港 （美元/吨） 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 800 1300 1800 2300 01/01 02/01 03/01 04/01 05/01 06/01 07/01 08/01 09/01 10/01 11/01 12/01 硅铁：75%FeSi：出口价格：天津港 （美元/吨） 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 -2500 -1500 -500 500 1500 01/01 02/01 03/01 04/01 05/01 06/01 07/01 08/01 09/01 10/01 11/01 12/01 硅铁-硅锰主力合约价差（元/吨） 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 0 2000 4000 6000 8000 10000 01 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The silicon-manganese industry has overcapacity, with no significant increase in downstream consumption and high inventory levels, which restricts the upward movement of silicon-manganese prices. Since May, the decline in prices of manganese ore, electricity, and coal has shifted the cost center of silicon-manganese downward. Although there were some disturbances in manganese ore supply from January to May, the manganese ore inventory has recently recovered. All production areas have experienced long - term losses, so attention should be paid to production cuts and inventory changes in silicon-manganese, as well as electricity price changes [3][83]. - Silicon-manganese enterprises in different production areas are suffering losses, and production is gradually decreasing. Monthly production has significantly declined, with May's monthly production dropping to 743,000 tons. The weekly production rate has also gradually decreased, reaching a minimum of 33.6% in May, and weekly production dropping to 162,800 tons [4][85]. - Downstream consumption has weakened, and silicon-manganese inventory still suppresses price increases. As of early June, the consumption of silicon-manganese alloy in the five major steel products decreased by 1.04%. From January to May, production increased year - on - year while consumption decreased, leading to relatively high inventory. The three - link inventory of silicon-manganese remains at a high level compared to the same period in previous years [4][85]. - Raw material prices are weak, and the cost center of silicon-manganese has shifted downward. As of early June, the prices of South African semi - carbonate and Gabonese lump ore dropped to the lowest levels in the same period of previous years. In 2025, with large - scale new energy installations, the prices of traditional energy and electricity have decreased. The settlement electricity price for alloys in the Ningxia production area was adjusted downward in April. From January to April 2025, the cumulative year - on - year import of manganese ore decreased by 6.0%. Although the port manganese ore inventory has recovered recently, the low inventory still deserves market attention [5][86]. Summary According to the Directory I. Silicon-manganese prices are under pressure, and the center of gravity is gradually shifting downward - From January to May 2025, domestic silicon-manganese prices generally showed a "high - then - low" trend. In the context of loose silicon-manganese production capacity, the price center of gravity gradually shifted downward. In mid - to late January, silicon-manganese prices rose significantly due to supply disturbances in manganese ore. After that, as coal prices fell and alloy costs decreased, the market's ability to support prices weakened. From March to May, affected by the US tariff increase and weak market expectations, commodities were under pressure, and silicon-manganese prices continued to decline [14]. II. Silicon-manganese enterprises in different production areas are suffering losses, and production is gradually decreasing - From January to May 2025, all production areas experienced long - term losses, including Inner Mongolia and Ningxia, which have relatively low production costs. Alloy enterprises reduced production through measures such as maintenance. The weekly production rate of silicon-manganese gradually decreased, reaching a minimum of 33.6%, and weekly production dropped to 162,800 tons. Monthly production also decreased significantly, with May's monthly production dropping to 743,000 tons. From January to May 2025, the cumulative production of silicon-manganese alloy was 4.139 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.5%. Production was relatively high in March at 899,000 tons and then gradually decreased [17][20][32]. III. Downstream consumption has weakened, and silicon-manganese inventory still suppresses price increases - The downstream demand for silicon-manganese is mainly concentrated in steel consumption, especially in the five major steel products. As of early June, the demand for silicon-manganese in the five major steel products decreased by about 1.04%. The inventory of sample enterprises is higher than the same period last year. Although the number of days of available inventory for downstream steel enterprises is at a low level, the cumulative number of registered warehouse receipts + valid forecast warehouse receipts has reached over 1 million, and the three - link inventory of silicon-manganese remains at a high level compared to the same period in previous years [36][43][52]. IV. Raw material prices are weak, and the cost center of silicon-manganese has shifted downward - The cost of silicon-manganese mainly depends on the prices of manganese ore, electricity, and coal. As of early June, the prices of South African semi - carbonate and Gabonese lump ore dropped to historically low levels. From January to April 2025, the cumulative year - on - year import of manganese ore decreased by 6.0%. The inventory days of manganese ore for alloy enterprises remain relatively low. As of early June, the inventory days of manganese ore for alloy plants across the country have been reduced to 12.4 days. In May 2025, while manganese ore prices were at a low level, the electricity prices and coal prices in production areas also decreased. The settlement electricity price for alloys in the Ningxia production area decreased in April, causing a significant decline in silicon-manganese prices [54][55][76]. V. Conclusion - The silicon-manganese industry has overcapacity, with no significant increase in downstream consumption and high inventory levels, which restricts the upward movement of silicon-manganese prices. Since May, the decline in prices of manganese ore, electricity, and coal has shifted the cost center of silicon-manganese downward. Although there were some disturbances in manganese ore supply from January to May, the manganese ore inventory has recently recovered. All production areas have experienced long - term losses, so attention should be paid to production cuts and inventory changes in silicon-manganese, as well as electricity price changes. In the current situation, although prices are relatively low, cautious operations are still required until there are significant decreases in production and inventory. Attention should be paid to changes in silicon-manganese production, inventory, and manganese ore supply [83][85][87].

Core Viewpoint - The industrial silicon futures market is experiencing slight fluctuations, with a minor increase in prices, but overall supply pressure remains significant, leading to potential downward price movements in the future [1][3][7]. Market Performance - On June 10, the main contract for industrial silicon closed at 7415, up by 60 from the previous day, reflecting a 0.82% increase, although the closing price was still down by 60 compared to the previous trading day [1]. - The total trading volume for the main contract was 440,221 lots, with an open interest of 155,627 lots, and the current total open interest stands at 639,121 lots [1]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - The recent price recovery in the futures market has provided some confidence to the otherwise sluggish spot market, but the overall supply situation remains loose, with factories planning to resume production, which may increase supply pressure [3][7]. - The reduction in electricity prices during the flood season is expected to weaken cost support, potentially leading to further price declines as some factories may lower prices to alleviate pressure [3][7]. Raw Material Trends - The market for raw materials such as polysilicon and organosilicon remains stable, with no significant changes observed [5]. Future Considerations - The stability of industrial silicon prices is fragile, and market participants should closely monitor several factors: 1. The progress and scale of factory resumption [7] 2. The extent of electricity price reductions during the flood season [7] 3. The sustainability of the futures market rebound [7] 4. The resilience of downstream demand in key application areas [7] 5. The actual progress of inventory digestion in both social and factory stocks [7]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoint - Not provided in the content Summary by Directory Price - For silicon ferroalloy on June 10, 2025, the latest price of Ningxia 72 was 5100 yuan, with no daily change and a weekly decrease of 80 yuan; the latest price of Inner Mongolia 72 was 5150 yuan, with no daily change and a weekly decrease of 100 yuan; the latest price of Qinghai 72 was 5100 yuan, with a daily decrease of 50 yuan and a weekly decrease of 100 yuan; the latest price of Shaanxi 72 was 5100 yuan, with no daily change and a weekly decrease of 50 yuan; the latest price of Shaanxi 75 was 5750 yuan, with no daily change and a weekly decrease of 50 yuan; the latest price of Jiangsu 72 was 5280 yuan, with no daily change and a weekly decrease of 200 yuan; the latest price of Tianjin 72 was 5400 yuan, with a daily decrease of 100 yuan and no weekly change; the latest export price of Tianjin 72 was 1055 US dollars, with no daily or weekly change; the latest export price of Tianjin 75 was 1095 US dollars, with no daily or weekly change [2]. - For silicon manganese on June 10, 2025, the latest price of Inner Mongolia 6517 was 5450 yuan, with no daily change and a weekly increase of 50 yuan; the latest price of Ningxia 6517 was 5380 yuan, with no daily change and a weekly increase of 80 yuan; the latest price of Guangxi 6517 was 5500 yuan, with no daily change and a weekly increase of 50 yuan; the latest price of Guizhou 6517 was 5450 yuan, with no daily change and a weekly increase of 50 yuan; the latest price of Yunnan 6517 was 5450 yuan, with no daily change and a weekly increase of 50 yuan; the latest price of Guangxi 6014 was 5100 yuan, with no daily or weekly change; the latest price of Ningxia 6517 among traders was 5380 yuan, with no daily change and a weekly increase of 80 yuan; the latest price of Jiangsu 6517 among traders was 5540 yuan, with no daily change and a weekly increase of 90 yuan [2]. Supply - The monthly production volume of 136 silicon ferroalloy enterprises in China from 2021 - 2025 is presented, along with the weekly production volume of 136 silicon ferroalloy enterprises in China (with a production capacity accounting for 95%) during the same period; the monthly production capacity utilization rates of 136 silicon ferroalloy production enterprises in Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, and Shaanxi from 2021 - 2025 are also shown [5]. - The weekly production volume of silicon manganese in China from 2021 - 2025 is given, as well as the monthly procurement volume and price of silicon manganese 6517 by Hebei Iron and Steel Group during the same period [7]. Demand - The monthly estimated and revised production volume of crude steel in China from 2021 - 2025 is provided, along with the monthly production volume of stainless - steel crude steel in China during the same period; the monthly procurement volume of FeSi75 - B by Hebei Iron and Steel Group from 2021 - 2025 is also presented [5]. - The monthly demand volume of silicon manganese in China (according to Steel Union's data) from 2021 - 2025 is shown, along with the monthly export volume of silicon manganese in China during the same period [8]. Inventory - The weekly inventory of 60 sample silicon ferroalloy enterprises in China from 2021 - 2025 is presented, including the weekly inventory in Ningxia, Inner Mongolia, and Shaanxi; the daily total number of silicon ferroalloy warehouse receipts on CZCE from 2021 - 2025, the daily valid forecast, and the daily sum of warehouse receipts and valid forecast are also given; the monthly average available inventory days of silicon ferroalloy in East China, South China, and the North Region from 2021 - 2025 are shown [6]. - The daily total number of silicon manganese warehouse receipts on CZCE from 2021 - 2025, the daily valid forecast, and the daily sum of warehouse receipts and valid inventory are presented; the monthly average available inventory days of silicon manganese in China from 2021 - 2025 and the weekly inventory of 63 sample silicon manganese enterprises in China during the same period are also shown [8]. Cost and Profit - The electricity prices of ferroalloys in Qinghai, Ningxia, Shaanxi, and Inner Mongolia from 2021 - 2025 are presented, along with the market price of blue carbon small materials in Shaanxi, the operating rate of blue carbon in China, the production gross profit of blue carbon in China, the market price of 98% silica in the Northwest Region, and the market price of 70% Fe iron oxide scale in Shijiazhuang; the production cost of silicon ferroalloy in Ningxia and Inner Mongolia from 2021 - 2025, the profit of Ningxia silicon ferroalloy converted to the main contract, the spot profit of Ningxia silicon ferroalloy, the export profit of 75 silicon ferroalloy, and the profit of Inner Mongolia silicon ferroalloy converted to the main contract are also shown [6]. - The production cost - related prices of silicon manganese, such as the ex - factory price of chemical coke in Ordos, the aggregated prices of various manganese ores at Tianjin Port and Qinzhou Port, are presented; the profit of silicon manganese in Inner Mongolia, Guangxi, the North Region, and the South Region (according to Steel Union's data) from 2021 - 2025, the profit of Guangxi silicon manganese converted to the main contract, and the profit of Ningxia silicon manganese converted to the contract are also shown [7][8].

投资咨询业务资格 证监发【2014】217号 宏观氛围转暖 低位有所止跌 ——铁合金周报20250609 投 资 咨 询 部 ：彭博涵 联 系 方 式 ：0371-58630083 电 子 邮 箱 ：pengbh_qh@ccnew.com 执 业证书 编 号 ：F3076814 投资咨询 编 号 ：Z0016415 01 硅铁 本期观点 | 品种 | 主要逻辑 | 策略建议 | 风险点 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 供应：端午归来宁夏部分厂家复产，产量低位迅速回升。 需求：铁水产量见顶，成材进入淡季对合金需求转弱。 | | | | | 库存：钢厂库存回落，厂家库存止降回升。 | | 需求不及 | | | 成本：青海宁夏周度电费小降1分，成本重心继续回落。 | 短期观望或 | 预期/供 | | 硅铁 | | 反弹偏空。 | 应减产超 | | | 基差：盘面贴水幅度较大。 | | 预期 | | | 总结：上周硅铁供增需弱，受商品反弹氛围提振价格止跌。前期供应快速收缩带 | | | | | 动平衡表缺口不断扩大，近两周显性库存消化下降较快，但降库之后企业开工意 | | | | | ...

仓单 最新 日变化 周变化 出厂价折盘面 日变化 周变化 宁夏#72 5100 -30 -100 5360 主力合约 5104 -92 -194 内蒙#72 5150 -50 -150 5450 01合约 5106 -4 -96 青海#72 5150 -50 -100 5480 05合约 5122 -18 -138 陕西#72 5100 -50 -100 5400 09合约 5104 2 -68 陕西#75 5750 -50 -100 主力月基差 256 62 94 江苏#72 5280 0 -200 1-5月差 -16 14 42 天津#72 5500 0 50 5-9月差 18 -20 -70 天津#72 1055 0 0 9-1月差 -2 6 28 现货 盘面 最新 硅铁自然块 产区汇总价 硅铁合格块 贸易商价 硅铁出口价 品种 项目 铁合金早报 硅锰贸易商价 2025/6/9 供应 需求 800 1300 1800 2300 01/01 02/01 03/01 04/01 05/01 06/01 07/01 08/01 09/01 10/01 11/01 12/01 硅铁：72%FeSi：出口价格：天 ...

每日观点 锰硅2509： 1.基本面：原料端，锰矿价格持续下行，硅锰成本支撑走弱。供应端，硅锰厂排产波动不大，南方地区部分硅锰厂有复产 意愿。硅锰厂主动报价意愿偏弱，部分持货方报价小幅下跌。需求端，下游钢厂对硅锰采购谨慎，多等待主流钢招进场； 中性。 2.基差：现货价5500元/吨，09合约基差-38元/吨，现货贴水期货。偏空。 3.库存：全国63家独立硅锰企业样本库存186100吨；全国50家钢厂库存平均可用天数15.15天。偏多。 4.盘面：MA20向下，09合约期价收于MA20下方。偏空。 5.主力持仓：主力持仓净空，多翻空。偏空。 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 2025-06-09锰硅早报 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证号：Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 6.预期：预计本周锰硅价格震荡运行；SM2509：5400-5600震荡运行。 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 锰硅周报6.3-6.6 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证号：Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 每周观点 本周观点： 原料端，锰矿价格持续下行，硅锰成本支撑走弱。供应端，硅锰厂排产波动不大，南方地区部分硅锰厂有复产意愿。 硅锰厂主动报价意愿偏弱，部分持货方报价小幅下跌。需求端，下游钢厂对硅锰采购谨慎，多等待主流钢招进场。 下周行情预测： 锰矿价格持续下行，硅锰成本支撑走弱，下游钢厂对硅锰采购谨慎，预计下周锰硅价格震荡为主。 2 -2000元/吨 0元/吨 2000元/吨 4000元/吨 6000元/吨 8000元/吨 10000元/吨 12000元/吨 14000元/吨 2020-01-01 2020-08-01 2021-03-01 2021-10-01 2022-05-01 2022-12-01 2023-07- ...

Group 1: Cost and Pricing Analysis - The price of 72 silicon iron natural blocks is reported at 5000-5200 CNY/ton, down 50-100 CNY from last week[2] - The cost of silicon iron in Qinghai is 5523 CNY/ton with a loss of 323 CNY, while in Ningxia it is 5754 CNY/ton with a loss of 454 CNY[21] - Manganese silicon prices are reported at 5450-5550 CNY/ton, with a slight decrease in the northern region[8] Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The weekly supply of silicon iron is 97,300 tons, an increase of 9.45% from last week, indicating a significant supply-demand mismatch[34] - Manganese silicon weekly demand is reported at 125,793 tons, down 0.86% from the previous week, while supply is at 171,885 tons, up 1.15%[64] - The total production of silicon iron in May was 405,200 tons, with an expected increase to 440,000 tons in June due to the resumption of production in Ningxia[22] Group 3: Market Sentiment and Trends - The market is experiencing a low-level wide fluctuation in the bottoming phase, with weak rebounds but slowing declines[4] - The overall sentiment in the industry remains pessimistic due to significant losses and low demand expectations[40] - The recent dialogue between China and the U.S. has alleviated some short-term macro pressures, with a focus on the dual-coke market trends[5]

Group 1 - The silicon manganese market shows moderate performance with futures stabilizing after a short-term dip, while spot prices in both northern and southern markets range from 5450 to 5500 yuan/ton [1] - The overall operating rate of 187 independent silicon manganese enterprises is 35.03%, with a week-on-week increase of 0.26%, and the average daily output is 24,600 tons, up by 280 tons week-on-week [1] - Demand for silicon manganese from the five major materials is 125,800 tons, reflecting a week-on-week decrease of 0.86% [1] Group 2 - The silicon iron market experiences a cautious sentiment despite a slight easing of pessimism, with futures hitting recent lows and showing weak fluctuations [1] - The operating rate of silicon iron enterprises is 32.78%, with a week-on-week increase of 2.33%, and the average daily output is 13,900 tons, up by 1,760 tons week-on-week [1] - Demand for silicon iron from the five major materials is 20,300 tons, down by 1.21% week-on-week, indicating cautious purchasing behavior from downstream [1] Group 3 - Inventory levels for silicon manganese and silicon iron show mixed trends, with silicon manganese inventory slightly increasing and silicon iron inventory decreasing week-on-week [1] - The overall production of silicon manganese is low due to industry profit impacts, while silicon iron production has dropped to near historical lows due to enterprise losses [1] - Price pressures for both silicon manganese and silicon iron are influenced by factors such as cost, electricity prices, and industrial policies, with a focus on monitoring manganese ore supply [1]