招银国际环球市场 | 市场策略 | 招财日报 每日投资策略 行业及公司点评 全球市场观察 2025 年 12 月 8 日 1 中国股市上涨，港股原材料、金融与工业领涨，综合、公用事业与必选消费 下跌，南向净买入 13.4 亿港元，小米与美团净买入最多，阿里与腾讯净卖出 居前。A 股非银金融、有色金属与工贸综合涨幅居前，银行、煤炭与电信服 务跑输市场。A 股券商板块大涨，中国证监会主席表示鼓励头部机构通过并 购重组打造国际一流投行，将对优质券商适度松绑打开资本空间与杠杆限制， 鼓励中小机构打造小而美的精品投行、特色投行和特色服务商；保险板块大 涨，保险公司投资资本市场的风险因子再度下调，显示监管机构鼓励险资等 长期资本入市的态度。 美股上涨，通讯服务、信息技术与可选消费涨幅居前，公用事业、能源与医 疗保健跌幅最大。戴尔、联想、惠普等主要 OEM 厂商计划大幅提高服务器 价格，因供应很难跟上快速增长的需求。微软与博通商谈定制芯片设计合作， 可能替换现有供应商 Marvell，以降低对英伟达依赖。随着 AI 产品创新，定 制芯片需求激增，科技公司寻求供应链多元化以降低风险与成本。 美债收益率升至两周新高，美元指数转 ...

（来源：领盛Optivest） 基本面总结： 1．日本央行预计对未来加息采取"建设性模糊"策略 日本央行预计将在未来加息路径上采取"建设性模糊"策略。报道称，行长植田和男近期就中性利率估计发出了较以往更清晰的指引信号。目前，日本央行 评估名义中性利率位于1%至2.5%的区间。鉴于市场已几乎完全定价日本央行将在12月将政策利率从0.5%上调至0.75%，部分市场参与者据此推测，日本 央行可能会上调中性利率估计，以释放未来仍有继续加息空间的信号。 尽管市场产生此类预期，多名前日本央行官员认为，央行不太可能公布明确的中性利率数字。前日本央行首席经济学家龟田诚策表示，在高度不确定性 下，央行更倾向于通过"建设性模糊"方式保留政策灵活性，而非给出可能束缚自身的具体数字。他预计植田和男最多会指示中性利率在宽幅区间内的大致 位置。 前日本央行官员、现任摩根大通日本首席经济学家藤田彩子预计，日本央行将强调1%仅为预估区间的下限，并暗示实际中性利率可能更高。但她同时指 出，央行仍会表示无法确知中性利率的真实水平，并可能希望市场将其定价在1.5%左右，从而实现预期管理。 报道称，在主要央行中，日本央行并非唯一对披露中性利率细节保 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the machinery equipment industry, particularly emphasizing the resonance of domestic and foreign demand in engineering machinery [1]. Core Insights - The report highlights strong performance in the excavator market, with November 2025 sales reaching 20,027 units, a year-on-year increase of 13.9%, exceeding market expectations [1]. - The report anticipates a rebound in overseas demand for machinery in 2026, following a four-year decline, driven by a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve [1]. - The gas turbine market is expected to benefit from the expansion of AI data centers in the U.S., which will increase demand for reliable power solutions [2]. - The semiconductor equipment sector is projected to see growth due to financing for storage expansion and increasing domestic equipment localization rates [3]. Summary by Sections Engineering Machinery - November 2025 excavator sales reached 20,027 units, with domestic sales at 9,842 units (up 9.11%) and exports at 10,185 units (up 18.8%) [1]. - The report notes that despite weak fundamentals in real estate and infrastructure, factors like machine replacement and water conservancy funding are supporting small excavators [1]. - The report identifies key companies in this sector, including Sany Heavy Industry, XCMG, and LiuGong, as potential beneficiaries of the expected demand rebound [1]. Gas Turbines - The expansion of AI data centers is driving significant electricity demand, with gas turbines being favored for their quick construction and stable output [2]. - Companies like Jereh and Haomai Technology are highlighted for their potential to benefit from this trend, with Jereh securing a $200 million order from a leading AI firm [2]. Semiconductor Equipment - The report emphasizes the importance of storage expansion financing and the increasing localization of equipment in the semiconductor sector [3]. - Key companies to watch include Northern Huachuang and Zhongwei Technology, which are expected to benefit from these trends [3].

全球半导体设备市场正在悄然发生深刻变革，而光刻机作为半导体制造的核心设备，被誉为"工业皇冠 上的明珠"。 长期以来，光刻机技术的缺失被认为是中国芯片产业发展的最大短板。 尽管取得了显著进展，但中国光刻机产业仍面临巨大挑战。目前，全球市场对先进制程芯片的需求持续 增长，而ASML的技术优势在高端领域难以撼动。 以上海芯上微装科技股份有限公司（AMIES）推出的AST6200型350nm步进光刻机为例，这款设备虽然 制程节点不及国际顶尖水平，但其技术指标精准击中了第三代半导体市场的核心需求。 其刻蚀精度达到正面80纳米、背面500纳米，兼容碳化硅（SiC）、氮化镓（GaN）等多种化合物半导体 材料，广泛应用于5G基站、新能源汽车电控系统等领域。更值得关注的是，该设备核心零部件几乎实 现了全链条的"中国制造"。 这种差异化竞争策略不仅帮助中国企业在细分市场站稳脚跟，也为后续技术追赶积累了宝贵的资金和经 验。 除了硬件技术的突破，中国光刻机产业还在研发范式上实现了创新。国内研发团队通过引入大数据和人 工智能技术，部署高密度传感器网络，构建高精度数字孪生模型。 这种数据驱动的研发模式显著提升了设备良率，同时缩短了设备调 ...

Core Viewpoint - The investment by拓荆科技 in芯丰精密 aims to strengthen the company's strategic layout and industrial synergy in the 3D integration and advanced packaging sectors [1][3]. Investment Details -拓荆科技 plans to acquire a stake in芯丰精密 for no more than RMB 270 million, which represents 16.4154% of the company's registered capital post-financing [1]. - The associated party,丰泉创投, will invest RMB 30 million for a 1.8239% stake [1]. - The total registered capital of芯丰精密 will increase from RMB 57,891,044 to RMB 60,819,616 after the financing round [3]. Company Profile -芯丰精密 specializes in the research and manufacturing of core equipment and materials for 3D integration and advanced packaging [3]. - The company has developed capabilities in core software and components, with a product line that includes thinning, dicing, and slicing equipment, as well as advanced bonding equipment [3]. -芯丰精密's products have been successfully applied in advanced storage and image sensor fields [3]. Strategic Importance - The investment is seen as a strategic move to enhance the technological synergy in the high-tech semiconductor equipment market [4]. - As the semiconductor industry evolves towards 3D integration and advanced packaging, the demand for core equipment is increasing, highlighting the strategic value of such investments [4].

Core Viewpoint - The company,拓荆科技, plans to invest in 宁波芯丰精密科技有限公司 through an associated entity, 丰泉创业投资, indicating a strategic move to enhance its industrial layout and synergy in the semiconductor equipment sector [1][4]. Investment Details - 拓荆科技 intends to acquire 998.38 million yuan of registered capital from 芯丰精密 for no more than 270 million yuan, representing 16.42% of the post-financing registered capital [1]. - 丰泉创投 will invest 30 million yuan for 110.93 million yuan of registered capital, accounting for 1.82% of the post-financing registered capital [1]. - The total capital increase for 芯丰精密 from various investors, including 拓荆科技 and 丰泉创投, amounts to 99 million yuan, raising the registered capital from 57.89 million yuan to 60.82 million yuan [3]. Company Profile - 芯丰精密 specializes in the research and production of thinning, dicing, and slicing equipment and consumables, primarily used in 3D IC and advanced packaging processes [3]. - The company has core software and component R&D and manufacturing capabilities [3]. Financial Performance - As of mid-2025, 芯丰精密's total assets and net assets are projected to be 388 million yuan and -82.86 million yuan, respectively [3]. - Revenue for 2024 and the first half of 2025 is expected to be 56.35 million yuan and 15.87 million yuan, with net losses of 30.88 million yuan and 7.19 million yuan [3]. Valuation - The pre-investment valuation for 芯丰精密's capital increase is set at 1.8 billion yuan, while the valuation for the share transfer is 1.566 billion yuan due to the lack of special shareholder rights [3]. Strategic Intent - 拓荆科技 aims to strengthen its position in the semiconductor equipment industry through this investment, enhancing its product offerings in the 3D integration field [4]. - The company has successfully developed advanced bonding equipment and related detection devices, which are now in mass production [5]. Financial Growth - In the first three quarters of the year, 拓荆科技 reported revenues of 4.22 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 85.27%, and a net profit of 557 million yuan, up 105.14% [5]. - The company plans to raise up to 4.6 billion yuan through a private placement to expand high-end semiconductor equipment capacity and fund cutting-edge technology projects [5].

Investment Overview - The company plans to invest in Ningbo Xinfeng Precision Technology Co., Ltd. (referred to as "Xinfeng Precision") alongside its affiliate Fengquan Venture Capital (Zhangjiagang) Partnership (Limited Partnership) [2][4] - The company intends to acquire up to RMB 270,000,001 for a 16.4154% stake in Xinfeng Precision, while Fengquan Venture Capital will invest RMB 30,000,000 for a 1.8239% stake [2][4] Transaction Details - The investment involves acquiring shares from existing shareholders of Xinfeng Precision, with the total registered capital increasing from RMB 57,891,044 to RMB 60,819,616 after the investment [6][17] - The investment is structured as a joint investment with an affiliate, constituting a related party transaction but not classified as a major asset restructuring under relevant regulations [2][6] Company Strategy - The investment aligns with the company's strategic plan to enhance its industrial layout and synergy in the semiconductor equipment sector [24] - Xinfeng Precision focuses on developing and manufacturing thinning, dicing, and cutting equipment for 3D integration and advanced packaging processes, indicating significant growth potential [4][24] Financial Aspects - The pre-investment valuation of Xinfeng Precision is set at RMB 180 million, with the pre-transaction valuation for the share transfer at RMB 156.56 million [15] - The company and Fengquan Venture Capital will contribute cash for their respective equity stakes, ensuring fair pricing and compliance with legal regulations [15][24] Approval Process - The transaction has been approved by the company's board of directors and will be submitted for shareholder approval, with related parties abstaining from voting [27][28] - The company has followed the necessary procedures for related party transactions, ensuring transparency and compliance with regulations [28][68] Future Implications - The investment is expected to positively impact the company's operational development without affecting its independence or financial stability [24][68] - The company will continue to monitor the performance of Xinfeng Precision and the overall market conditions to mitigate potential risks associated with the investment [3][25]

Core Viewpoint - The company,拓荆科技, plans to invest in 宁波芯丰精密科技有限公司, acquiring a 16.4154% stake through a capital transfer of up to 270 million yuan [1] Investment Details - The company will acquire 998.38 million yuan of registered capital from the original shareholders of 芯丰精密 [1] - The investment is part of a financing round for 芯丰精密, which focuses on developing and manufacturing equipment and consumables for 3D integration and advanced packaging processes [1] Company Profile - 芯丰精密 specializes in the research and production of thinning, dicing, and cutting equipment, as well as consumables for advanced packaging [1] - The company possesses independent research and manufacturing capabilities for core software and components [1]

Core Viewpoint - The company, Saiteng Co., is positioned as a leading domestic semiconductor testing equipment manufacturer, with a market capitalization of 10 billion, significantly lower than international giants like KLA and Applied Materials, which have market caps reaching trillions. This indicates both a substantial gap and a significant growth potential for the company [1]. Group 1 - The company acknowledges the disparity in market capitalization compared to international leaders, highlighting a growth opportunity if it can capture even 10% of the market share of these giants [1]. - Saiteng Co. is committed to narrowing the gap with international standards through continuous R&D investment and a steady implementation pace, aiming to unlock its technological potential and create sustainable value for investors [1].

Core Viewpoint - The company has successfully delivered and is undergoing acceptance of bulk HBM equipment orders from Samsung, indicating strong demand and operational capability in the semiconductor sector [1] Group 1 - The company has developed the RXW-1200, a wafer edge monitoring device, which has been successfully shipped to leading domestic semiconductor FAB customers, showcasing its innovation and market penetration [1] - The company is actively expanding its market presence both domestically and internationally, reflecting a strategic growth initiative in the semiconductor industry [1]