Group 1 - The article discusses a report from Morgan Stanley regarding the National Development and Reform Commission's recent article on optimizing traditional industries, specifically focusing on alumina and copper smelting management and encouraging mergers and acquisitions among major enterprises in these sectors [1] - Alumina prices are under pressure due to increased supply, with current production capacity at 110 million tons and an utilization rate of 84%, while domestic demand in China has reached its limit. The new policy may restrict the planning of new alumina production capacity, and capacity consolidation is expected to benefit industry leaders such as China Aluminum (02600) and China Hongqiao (01378) [1] - There is a potential for pressure on alumina prices from a significant amount of already approved capacity that may impact prices until 2026 [1] Group 2 - Lower annual copper concentrate processing and refining fees, along with long-term contract concentrate volumes, may lead to a reduction in refined copper production by 2026. However, stable demand is expected to support copper prices at high levels, benefiting companies such as Zijin Mining (02899), Luoyang Molybdenum (03993), Minmetals Resources (01208), and Jiangxi Copper (00358) [1]

Report Information - Report Title: Aluminum Industry Chain Weekly Report - Report Date: December 29, 2025 - Research Team: Non - ferrous Metals Team of the Industrial Service Headquarters - Researcher: Wang Guodong Report's Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The fundamentals of the aluminum industry are weak. Although the macro - atmosphere is good and the market anticipates an optimistic outlook for next year, leading to price increases in many non - ferrous metals, the spot discount has widened more than seasonally. It is not recommended to chase high prices before the holiday [3]. - The prices of domestic and imported bauxite are expected to continue to decline under pressure. The operating rate of domestic aluminum downstream processing enterprises is under pressure and the inventory of aluminum ingots has increased significantly [3]. Summary by Directory 01. Weekly Views Fundamental Analysis - Bauxite prices in Shanxi are stable, while those in Henan continue to decline. The mainstream transaction price of Guinea's bulk ore has dropped by $2.9 per dry - ton to $67 per dry - ton. Domestic and imported ore prices are expected to continue to decline [3][10]. - The operating capacity of alumina remains unchanged at 95.9 million tons week - on - week, and the national alumina inventory has increased by 93,000 tons to 4.773 million tons. Alumina enterprises in Henan have reduced or stopped roasting furnaces due to heavy pollution weather control [3][13]. - The operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum has increased by 35,000 tons to 44.529 million tons week - on - week. New production capacities are being put into operation, such as Tianshan Aluminum's 200,000 - ton capacity and Zha Aluminum's 350,000 - ton capacity [3][22]. - The operating rate of domestic aluminum downstream processing leading enterprises has decreased by 0.7% to 60.8% week - on - week. Overall demand is entering the off - season, and the high - level and volatile aluminum prices are suppressing downstream demand [3]. - The inventory of aluminum ingots has increased significantly during the week. The operating rate of recycled cast aluminum alloy has rebounded in Chongqing due to the lifting of environmental protection control, but the orders of downstream die - casting enterprises are weakening [3]. Strategy Recommendations - Alumina: It is recommended to wait and see. - Shanghai Aluminum: It is recommended to hold a light position and wait and see before the holiday. - Cast Aluminum Alloy: It is recommended to hold a light position and wait and see before the holiday [4]. 02. Macroeconomic Indicators - The report presents data on the US Treasury yield curve (10 - year, 2 - year), the US dollar index, the US 10 - year inflation expectation, and the exchange rate of the US dollar against the RMB [6][7]. 03. Bauxite - The prices of bauxite in Shanxi are stable, while those in Henan continue to decline. Due to issues such as mining rectification and environmental protection supervision, it is difficult for many mines to resume production in the short term [10]. - The mainstream transaction price of Guinea's bulk ore has dropped by $2.9 per dry - ton to $67 per dry - ton. The shipment volume of Guinea's ore has increased, and the spot supply of imported ore has increased, putting pressure on ore prices [10]. - The long - term contract price of Guinea's large - scale mining enterprises in the first quarter of 2026 is expected to be lower than that in the fourth quarter of 2025 [10]. 04. Alumina - As of last Friday, the installed capacity of alumina was 114.62 million tons, with no week - on - week change, and the operating capacity was 95.9 million tons, also with no week - on - week change. The operating rate was 83.6% [13]. - The weighted price of domestic alumina spot decreased by 63.9 yuan/ton to 2,660.9 yuan/ton week - on - week [13]. - The national alumina inventory increased by 93,000 tons to 4.773 million tons week - on - week. Alumina enterprises in Henan have reduced or stopped roasting furnaces due to environmental protection factors, while enterprises in other regions maintain stable production [13]. - On December 26, the National Development and Reform Commission issued a policy to encourage mergers and reorganizations of large - scale alumina and copper smelting enterprises, which pushed alumina prices to the daily limit during the session [13]. 05. Important High - Frequency Data of Alumina - The report presents data on the basis, port inventory, north - south price difference, and external transportation volume of alumina [15][16][17][18]. 06. Electrolytic Aluminum - As of last Friday, the installed capacity of electrolytic aluminum was 45.337 million tons, an increase of 35,000 tons week - on - week, and the operating capacity was 44.529 million tons, also an increase of 35,000 tons week - on - week [22]. - In terms of capacity reduction and resumption, some electrolytic cells in Shanxi Shuozhou Energy have been shut down for technological transformation, involving a capacity of about 40,000 tons, and some aluminum plants in Xinjiang have reduced production due to environmental protection control [22]. - New production capacities are being put into operation, such as Tianshan Aluminum's 200,000 - ton capacity and Zha Aluminum's 350,000 - ton capacity, which will reach full production in 2026 [22]. 07. Important High - Frequency Data of Electrolytic Aluminum - The report presents data on the processing fees of 6063 aluminum rods, the forward curve of Shanghai Aluminum, the prices of动力煤, and the import profit of aluminum [24]. 08. Inventory - The report presents the inventory trends of aluminum rods, aluminum ingots, Shanghai Futures Exchange aluminum futures, and LME aluminum from 2021 to 2025 [26][27][28][29]. 09. Cast Aluminum Alloy - The operating rate of recycled aluminum alloy leading enterprises has increased by 1% to 60.8% week - on - week. The lifting of environmental protection control in Chongqing has promoted the recovery of the operating rate, but the orders of downstream die - casting enterprises are weakening [32]. 10. Important High - Frequency Data of Cast Aluminum Alloy - The report presents data on the prices of profile aluminum, the forward curve of aluminum alloy futures, the seasonal trend of the price difference between ADC12 and A00, and the import profit of ADC12 aluminum alloy ingots [34][35][37][38]. 11. Downstream Operating Rate - The operating rate of domestic aluminum downstream processing leading enterprises has decreased by 0.7% to 60.8% week - on - week [42]. - The operating rate of aluminum profile leading enterprises has decreased by 0.6% to 51% week - on - week. The demand for industrial profiles is mainly driven by rigid needs, and the operating rate of construction profiles has declined due to the off - season [42]. - The operating rate of aluminum plate and strip leading enterprises has decreased by 1% to 64% week - on - week. Due to environmental protection and the off - season, some enterprises plan to slow down production and conduct equipment maintenance [42]. 12. Downstream Operating Rate - The operating rate of domestic cable leading enterprises has decreased by 1.6% to 60.4% week - on - week. The continuous strengthening of environmental protection control in Henan Gongyi has restricted production capacity, and the grid order matching progress is slow [45]. - The operating rate of primary aluminum alloy leading enterprises has decreased by 0.4% to 59.6% week - on - week. The high - level and volatile aluminum prices have suppressed the purchasing willingness of downstream enterprises, and the overall operating rate has declined [45].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that the aluminum market is experiencing upward pressure due to a combination of rising copper prices, a weakening US dollar, and strong alumina prices providing cost support for aluminum prices [1][2]. - The Shanghai aluminum price increased by 0.6% to 22,520 CNY/ton, with a rise of 135 CNY [1][2]. - The LME aluminum inventory rose by 1,450 tons to 521,050 tons, reflecting a 0.28% increase [1][2]. Group 2 - Domestic aluminum supply remains stable, with limited pressure on supply despite seasonal demand weakening and a decrease in downstream processing rates, which fell by 0.6 percentage points to 60.8% [2]. - The market anticipates two interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in 2026, enhancing the attractiveness of industrial metals priced in dollars for overseas buyers [2]. - The upcoming national fiscal work conference is expected to signal continued implementation of more proactive fiscal policies, which could positively impact the market [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - In the short - term, Shanghai Aluminum is expected to maintain a volatile and upward - trending pattern, while in the long - term, it is in an upward channel. Alumina is still in a supply - surplus situation, and the recent price increase is mainly due to emotional stimulation. Cast aluminum alloy shows a pattern of strong cost support but slow - growing demand [1][9][17]. - The core factors affecting aluminum prices are macro - policy expectations and fundamentals. Overseas macro mainly focuses on the Fed's monetary policy, and the rise and fall of interest - rate cut expectations dominate the financial - attribute pricing of the non - ferrous sector. The domestic fundamentals of electrolytic aluminum are relatively stable, with external demand stronger than domestic demand [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 3.1.1 Electrolytic Aluminum - **Core Contradictions**: The core factors affecting aluminum prices are macro - policy expectations and fundamentals. Overseas, the focus is on the Fed's monetary policy, and the outcome of China - US tariff negotiations is in line with expectations. Domestically, the fundamentals are stable with external demand stronger than domestic demand. In the short - term, Shanghai Aluminum is affected by related varieties, and there is a short - term inventory accumulation. In the long - term, macro factors will drive the upward movement of aluminum prices, and the supply - demand balance of global electrolytic aluminum in 2026 will be tight or in short supply [1][7][9]. - **Trading Strategy Recommendations**: The trend is expected to be high - level oscillation. For the monthly spread strategy, it is recommended to wait and see. When the spread between Shanghai Aluminum and aluminum alloy is too large, one can go long on aluminum alloy and short on Shanghai Aluminum for arbitrage. The recent strategies include interval operations, selling options, etc. [10]. 3.1.2 Alumina - **Core Contradictions**: The supply of bauxite is sufficient, and the price is expected to be weakly volatile. Alumina still has a supply - surplus problem, but the market interprets the NDRC's news as a control on alumina growth, which is mainly an emotional stimulus. In the short - term, the impact on fundamentals is limited. In the long - term, the supply - surplus pattern is difficult to change, but the price decline rate will slow down [12][17][19]. - **Trading Strategy Recommendations**: The trend is expected to be weakly running. The price range is 2750 - 3050. It is recommended to sell the Alumina 2601 Call Option at 2900. For the basis and monthly spread strategies, it is recommended to wait and see, and there is no recommended hedging and arbitrage strategy [27]. 3.1.3 Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Core Contradictions**: The core contradiction lies in the weak demand and high costs. The supply of scrap aluminum is tight, and the downstream is in a mild recovery with general peak - season performance and downward pressure. In the long - term, the cost support is strong, but the demand growth rate slows down [25][30]. - **Trading Strategy Recommendations**: The trend is expected to be oscillating and upward - trending. The price range is 19900 - 20800. When the spread between Shanghai Aluminum and aluminum alloy is greater than 500, one can go long on aluminum alloy and short on Shanghai Aluminum for arbitrage [31]. 3.1.4 Industrial Customer Operation Recommendations - Provide price - range forecasts for alumina, electrolytic aluminum, and aluminum alloy in the near future, as well as risk - management strategy recommendations, including inventory management and raw - material management strategies [32]. 3.2 This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Events to Watch 3.2.1 This Week's Important Information - **Positive Information**: On December 11, the social inventory of aluminum ingots and aluminum rods increased by 44,000 tons to 741,500 tons compared with the previous week. The US GDP in the third quarter of this year increased by 4.3% year - on - year, higher than the second - quarter growth rate of 3.8% and the market expectation of 3.2% [33]. - **Negative Information**: No information provided. - **Spot Transaction Information**: Overseas, on December 23, 30,000 tons of alumina were traded at a price of $335/mt FOB Brazil for February shipment. Domestically, there were transactions in the north and south markets, with different prices and quantities [34][36]. 3.2.2 Next Week's Events to Watch - On December 31, the number of initial jobless claims in the US for the week ending December 27 will be released [37]. 3.3 Disk Interpretation 3.3.1 Price - Volume and Fund Interpretation - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: Shanghai Aluminum was driven by related varieties and trended upward. The relationship between the main - contract position and price indicates that the market is mainly controlled by long - position forces. The positions of key seats and the total position show opposite trends, indicating that key seats take profits at high prices. The basis - monthly spread structure maintains a shallow C - shaped structure [38][41]. - **Alumina**: The fundamentals remained unchanged this week, but the price rebounded sharply on Friday due to the NDRC's news. Long - position investors entered the market, the position increased significantly, and the net short - position decreased. The term structure is stable, but there is an obvious spread between the 2602 and 2603 contracts [54][58]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: It moved with Shanghai Aluminum this week, but the position of the main contract decreased, and the positions of important seats remained oscillating. The term structure is stable, maintaining a shallow C - shaped structure [62][65]. 3.4 Valuation and Profit Analysis - **Profit Tracking of the Industrial Chain's Upstream and Downstream**: The supply - surplus situation of alumina persists, the spot price continues to decline, and the profit is compressed. The profit of electrolytic aluminum remains at a high level [67]. - **Import - Export Profit Tracking**: The alumina import window remains open, while the import and export windows for electrolytic aluminum are closed, with only long - term Russian aluminum contracts flowing in, averaging about 200,000 tons per month [70][72]. 3.5 Supply - Demand and Inventory Deduction - **Supply - Demand Balance Deduction**: Provide quarterly balance sheets for electrolytic aluminum and monthly balance sheets for alumina, showing the supply - demand balance in different periods [74]. - **Supply - Side and Deduction**: The profit of electrolytic aluminum is high, and the domestic production capacity is approaching the ceiling, with little change in supply. Overseas, the supply increase is concentrated in Southeast Asia, mainly in 2026. Alumina prices are under pressure, and some high - cost enterprises may reduce production, which is expected to alleviate the surplus situation to some extent [75][76]. - **Demand - Side and Deduction**: The new - energy sector is the main driving force for the growth of China's electrolytic aluminum demand, but the growth rate is expected to slow down. The demand for aluminum in the construction sector is expected to decline negatively, and the overall consumption growth rate of electrolytic aluminum is expected to slow down but remain above 0.5% for a long time. Alumina demand is mainly for electrolytic - aluminum smelting, and the demand is estimated based on seasonality [78].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Aluminum follows the trend of copper, alumina is influenced by the "involution" policy orientation, and cast aluminum alloy follows the trend of electrolytic aluminum [1] - Trump's administration plans to take control of the power grid from states to prioritize power supply for AI data - centers, facing opposition from state regulatory agencies [2] - NVIDIA is leading a shift to 800V DC architecture in data - centers, causing a reshuffle of the industrial chain. There are short - term high investment thresholds but a long - term TCO reduction of about 30% [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - **Aluminum**: The closing price of the SHFE aluminum main contract is 22405, up 220 from T - 5 and 1800 from T - 66; the LME aluminum 3M closing price is 2957, up 1 from T - 5 and 367 from T - 66. Trading volume and open interest have fluctuated [1] - **Alumina**: The closing price of the SHFE alumina main contract is 2793, up 293 from T - 5 and down 187 from T - 66. The trading volume and open interest have also changed [1] - **Aluminum Alloy**: The closing price of the aluminum alloy main contract is 21390, up 155 from T - 5. Trading volume and open interest have decreased [1] 3.2 Spot Market - **Aluminum - related**: The LME aluminum ingot inventory is 52.11 million tons, with a slight change compared to previous periods; the domestic aluminum ingot social inventory is 61.20 million tons, with a change of 5.10 million tons from T - 5 [1] - **Alumina - related**: The average domestic alumina price is 2697, down 61 from T - 5 and 491 from T - 66; the alumina CIF price in Lianyungang is 2780 yuan/ton, down 65 from T - 5 and 475 from T - 66 [1] - **Aluminum Alloy - related**: The theoretical profit of ADC12 is - 2, with a change compared to previous periods; the price of Baotai ADC12 is 21500, up 300 from T - 5 and 1200 from T - 66 [1] 3.3 Other Information - The trend intensity of aluminum, alumina, and aluminum alloy is all 1, indicating a neutral trend [2]

Group 1 - The article highlights the top 20 stocks in the S&P China A-Share Dividend Opportunity Index (CSPSADRP) based on their daily and year-to-date performance as of December 29, 2025 [1][5] - Nanshan Aluminum (600219.SH) leads with a daily increase of 5.99% and a year-to-date increase of 48.46%, along with a dividend yield of 7.78% [1][5] - Luri Co., Ltd. (002083.SZ) shows the highest year-to-date increase at 154.02%, with a daily increase of 3.61% and a dividend yield of 1.23% [1][5] Group 2 - The data indicates that several companies have significant year-to-date gains, such as Tianshan Aluminum (002532.SZ) with a 105.37% increase and Jiangsu Guotai (002091.SZ) with a 34.27% increase [1][5] - Companies like Semir Apparel (002563.SZ) and Tunnel Co. (600820.SH) have experienced negative year-to-date performance, with declines of 14.22% and 3.57% respectively [1][5] - The article provides a comprehensive overview of dividend yields, with Semir Apparel having the highest yield at 9.14% despite its negative performance [1][5]

Core Insights - The article highlights the transformation of the Guangyuan Economic and Technological Development Zone into a modern industrial cluster focused on green aluminum production, aiming to become a national leader in the aluminum industry by 2027 [2][5]. Industry Development - Guangyuan is positioned as the only aluminum-based new materials development base in the province, with a goal to achieve an aluminum industry output value of 467 billion yuan in 2024, up from approximately 82 billion yuan in 2020, marking a growth of 469.51% over five years [2][3]. - The development strategy includes establishing over 80 aluminum-related enterprises with a total output value exceeding 700 billion yuan by 2027, creating a complete green aluminum industry chain [2][5]. Production Capacity - The region currently has an annual electrolytic aluminum production capacity of 615,000 tons and a recycling aluminum capacity of 400,000 tons, with over 220,000 tons of aluminum processing capacity [3]. - Guangyuan has attracted nearly 100 aluminum enterprises, including 60 large-scale companies and 10 national high-tech enterprises, showcasing a robust industrial ecosystem [3][4]. Green Initiatives - The Guangyuan Economic and Technological Development Zone has been recognized as a national green demonstration park and a core production base for green electricity aluminum, emphasizing sustainability in its operations [4]. - The region has initiated a pilot program for optimizing the inspection and supervision of imported recycled aluminum raw materials, which is expected to lower procurement costs and enhance the industry's quality development [4]. Infrastructure Development - The construction of the Sichuan-Shaanxi-Gansu-Chongqing aluminum trading center, processing center, and logistics center is underway, facilitating smooth import and export channels for aluminum raw materials and products [4][5]. - The aluminum trading center has achieved a trade volume exceeding 30 billion yuan, indicating strong market activity [4]. Employment and Community Impact - The development of the aluminum industry is driving job creation, with initiatives like the "Spring Breeze Action" job fair connecting over 1,700 job seekers with potential employers [9]. - The region is committed to improving living conditions and urban infrastructure, enhancing the quality of life for residents through various community projects [10][11].

Group 1 - The company is in the process of selling land use rights as part of a government initiative to regulate urban industrial enterprises' relocation and land disposal [2][4] - The total area of land being stored by the company is 197,282 square meters, which will be repurposed according to new planning requirements [2][3] - The company has received a total of 385.6081 million yuan in compensation for land use rights, with 58.29085 million yuan remaining to be paid [5][6] Group 2 - A supplementary agreement was signed on September 20, 2019, detailing compensation standards for specific land plots designated for a kindergarten and parking lot, with a compensation rate of 3.44 million yuan per acre [4][6] - The payment schedule for the remaining compensation has been adjusted, with the full amount expected to be paid by December 31, 2026 [5][6] - The adjustments in payment arrangements will not affect the company's normal production and operations [6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the aluminum industry [1]. Core Views - The aluminum market is experiencing a seasonal inventory accumulation due to weak demand, while macroeconomic conditions remain supportive for aluminum prices [10]. - The report emphasizes the need for mergers and acquisitions among alumina companies to enhance competitiveness amid high inventory levels [10]. Summary by Sections 1. Prices - As of December 26, the average price of A00 aluminum in Changjiang was 22,060.0 CNY/ton, up 220.0 CNY/ton week-on-week, and up 2,210.0 CNY/ton year-on-year [20]. - The LME three-month aluminum closing price was 2,956.5 USD/ton, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 220.0 CNY/ton [14]. 2. Production - In November 2025, the production of electrolytic aluminum was 3.637 million tons, a decrease of 106,000 tons month-on-month and a decrease of 66,000 tons year-on-year [49]. - The production of alumina in November 2025 was 7.439 million tons, down 346,000 tons month-on-month but up 152,000 tons year-on-year [49]. 3. Inventory - As of December 25, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots in major domestic consumption areas was recorded at 617,000 tons, an increase of 39,000 tons week-on-week [7]. - The report notes that the inventory of bauxite at alumina plants increased to 55.411 million tons, indicating a high inventory level despite tight domestic supply [8]. 4. Key Companies and Earnings Forecast - China Hongqiao (1378.HK) is rated "Buy" with an expected EPS of 2.25 CNY for 2024, 2.54 CNY for 2025, and 2.77 CNY for 2026 [5]. - Tianshan Aluminum (002532.SZ) is also rated "Buy" with an expected EPS of 0.96 CNY for 2024, 1.00 CNY for 2025, and 1.27 CNY for 2026 [5]. - Other companies such as Shenhuo Co. (000933.SZ), China Aluminum (601600.SH), and Yun Aluminum (000807.SZ) are similarly rated "Buy" with positive earnings forecasts [5].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided in the report Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report anticipates that the global electrolytic aluminum supply will remain tight next year and that aluminum prices are expected to stay strong in the medium to long term due to supply constraints and growing demand from emerging industries [7]. - The recommended strategy is to continue holding medium - term long positions and engage in short - term rolling long positions, with the reference support range for SHFE Aluminum 2603 at 21,600 - 21,700 yuan/ton [7]. Summary by Directory 1. Weekly Views and Strategies - **Macro**: The US economy shows resilience, with a 4.3% growth in real GDP in Q3 2025. There are expectations of a more accommodative monetary policy after a potential change in the Fed Chair [7]. - **Supply**: China's electrolytic aluminum capacity expansion is restricted. Indonesia's planned new capacity is large but limited in actual increase in 2025. European production declined due to the energy crisis, and US output dropped for five consecutive years. Global supply is expected to be tight in the coming year [7]. - **Demand**: The domestic real - estate market is sluggish, but its impact on aluminum demand is reduced. New energy vehicles, energy storage, AI, and power grid construction in China and abroad are driving aluminum demand [7]. - **Inventory**: China's social aluminum inventory slightly increased due to rising prices and the end - of - year off - season [7]. - **View**: Medium - to long - term aluminum prices are expected to remain strong [7]. - **Strategy**: Hold medium - term long positions and do short - term rolling long positions, with SHFE Aluminum 2603 supported at 21,600 - 21,700 yuan/ton [7]. 2. Futures and Spot Markets - The report includes charts of domestic aluminum futures and spot prices, A00 aluminum ingot spot premiums/discounts, LME aluminum prices, and the Shanghai - London aluminum ratio, but no specific data analysis is provided [11][16] 3. Supply and Inventory - **Bauxite**: In November 2025, China imported 15.11 million tons of bauxite, a 22.5% year - on - year increase. From January to November 2025, cumulative imports were 187 million tons, a 29.61% increase. Guinea and Australia are major sources. Guinea's new production projects are expected to increase output [23][25][26]. - **Alumina**: In November 2025, China's alumina production was 8.138 million tons, an 8.4% year - on - year increase for January - November. There was a net export of 1.373 million tons from January to November. New domestic and overseas capacities are expected in 2025 and 2026 [39][43]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: In November 2025, the cost of electrolytic aluminum increased, while profits grew. The built - in capacity was 45.158 million tons, and the operating rate was 96.28%. Global and domestic production increased slightly in 2025. Import and export data showed changes in 2025. LME and domestic social inventories were reported as of December 2025 [53][59][60] 4. Primary Processing and Terminal Markets - **Aluminum Alloys**: In November 2025, China's aluminum alloy production was 1.739 million tons, with a 15.8% increase from January to November [79]. - **Aluminum Products**: In November 2025, China's aluminum product production was 5.931 million tons, a slight decrease. Import and export volumes of unforged aluminum and aluminum products changed in 2025 [86][92]. - **Downstream Demand**: The demand structure of electrolytic aluminum in China is changing. The real - estate sector's demand is decreasing, while transportation, power, and other sectors are growing. Forecasts for transportation, power, and energy storage show an upward trend in aluminum demand [100][105][106] 5. Supply - Demand Balance Sheet and Industrial Chain Structure - **Supply - Demand Forecast**: In 2026, China's electrolytic aluminum is expected to be in a tight balance, and the global market is also expected to be in a tight balance. After 2027, the global supply - demand gap may widen [110]. - **Industrial Chain Structure**: No specific content provided in the report