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合成橡胶早报-20250730
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-07-30 05:22
Report Overview - Report Title: Yong'an Synthetic Rubber Morning Report - Research Team: Energy and Chemicals Team of the Research Center - Report Date: July 30, 2025 - Data Sources: Mysteel, Wind [6][14] Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Report's Core View No core view explicitly stated in the provided content. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. BR (Butadiene Rubber) a. Futures Market - The closing price of the main BR contract on July 29 was 11,835, a daily decrease of 120 and a decrease of 265 compared to an earlier period [3][11]. - The open interest of the main BR contract on July 29 was 41,136, a daily decrease of 3,967 and a decrease of 8,215 compared to an earlier period [3][11]. - The trading volume of the main BR contract on July 29 was 104,614, a daily decrease of 46,246 and a decrease of 16,773 compared to an earlier period [3][11]. b. Basis and Spread - The basis of cis - butadiene rubber decreased by 30 on a daily basis and increased by 115 compared to an earlier period; the basis of cis - butadiene rubber (two - oil) increased by 120 on a daily basis and 365 compared to an earlier period [3][11]. - The 8 - 9 month spread of BR increased by 5 on a daily basis and decreased by 45 compared to an earlier period; the 9 - 10 month spread increased by 5 on a daily basis and 5 compared to an earlier period [3][11]. c. Spot Market - The Shandong market price of BR on July 29 was 11,850, a daily decrease of 150 and a decrease of 150 compared to an earlier period [3][11]. - The Chuanhua market price of BR on July 29 was 11,800, a daily decrease of 100 and a decrease of 100 compared to an earlier period [3][11]. - The ex - factory price of Qilu BR on July 29 was 12,100, with no daily change and an increase of 100 compared to an earlier period [3][11]. d. Processing and Import - Export - The spot processing profit of BR on July 29 was 113, a daily increase of 3 and an increase of 309 compared to an earlier period [3][11]. - The on - screen processing profit of BR on July 29 was 98, a daily increase of 33 and an increase of 194 compared to an earlier period [3][11]. - The import profit of BR on July 29 was - 86,802, a daily decrease of 290 and a decrease of 987 compared to an earlier period [3][11]. - The export profit of BR on July 29 was - 375, a daily increase of 145 and an increase of 313 compared to an earlier period [3][11]. 2. BD (Butadiene) a. Spot Market - The Shandong market price of BD on July 29 was 9,350, a daily decrease of 150 and a decrease of 450 compared to an earlier period [3][11]. - The Jiangsu market price of BD on July 29 was 9,400, a daily decrease of 150 and a decrease of 250 compared to an earlier period [3][11]. - The ex - factory price of Yangzi BD on July 29 was 9,400, a daily decrease of 300 and a decrease of 200 compared to an earlier period [3][11]. b. Processing and Import - Export - The carbon tetrachloride extraction profit data of BD was unavailable on July 29 [3][11]. - The butene oxidative dehydrogenation profit of BD on July 29 was 376, a daily decrease of 150 and a decrease of 390 compared to an earlier period [3][11]. - The import profit of BD on July 29 was 328, a daily decrease of 163 and a decrease of 658 compared to an earlier period [3][11]. - The export profit of BD on July 29 was - 1,150, a daily increase of 141 and an increase of 291 compared to an earlier period [3][11]. 3. Downstream Profits - The production profit of styrene - butadiene rubber (SBR) on July 29 was 475, a daily increase of 225 and an increase of 350 compared to an earlier period [3][11]. - The production profit of ABS was unavailable on July 29 [3][11]. - The production profit of SBS (791 - H) on July 29 was 930, a daily increase of 210 and an increase of 340 compared to an earlier period [3][11]. 4. Price Spreads a. Inter - variety Spreads - The RU - BR spread on July 29 was - 26,126, a daily increase of 3,912 and an increase of 8,165 compared to an earlier period [3][11]. - The NR - BR spread on July 29 was - 28,466, a daily increase of 3,827 and an increase of 8,030 compared to an earlier period [3][11]. - The Thai mixed - cis - butadiene spread on July 29 was 2,750, a daily increase of 50 and an increase of 100 compared to an earlier period [3][11]. - The 3L - SBR spread on July 29 was 2,750, a daily increase of 100 and an increase of 200 compared to an earlier period [3][11]. b. Intra - variety Spreads - The spread between standard and non - standard cis - butadiene rubber remained unchanged at 250 [3][11]. - The spread between SBR 1502 and 1712 on July 29 was 1,100, a daily decrease of 100 and no change compared to an earlier period [3][11].
永安期货合成橡胶早报-20250728
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-07-28 02:07
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report No relevant content provided. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs BR (Butadiene Rubber) - On July 25, the closing price of the main contract was 12,415, with a daily change of 130 and a weekly change not fully clear from the text [3][12]. - The main contract's open interest was 49,311, a daily increase of 483 and a weekly increase of 32,097 [3][12]. - The trading volume of the main contract was 160,791, a daily increase of 12,149 and a weekly increase of 70,426 [3][12]. - The warehouse receipt quantity remained at 9,840, with no daily change and a weekly increase of 140 [3][12]. - The virtual - real ratio was 25.06, with no daily change and a weekly increase of 16 [3][12]. - The Shun - Ding basis was - 215, a daily decrease of 30 and a weekly decrease of 195; the Shun - Ding basis (two - oil) was - 215, a daily decrease of 130 and a weekly decrease of 195 [3][12]. - The 8 - 9 month spread was - 30, a daily decrease of 5 and a weekly decrease of 55; the 9 - 10 month spread was 15, a daily decrease of 25 and a weekly decrease of 15 [3][12]. - The Shandong market price was 12,200, a daily increase of 100 and a weekly increase of 500; the Chuanhua market price was 12,100, a daily increase of 200 and a weekly increase of 500 [3][12]. - The Qilu ex - factory price was 12,200, with no daily change and a weekly increase of 500 [3][12]. - CFR Northeast Asia was 1,450, with no daily or weekly change; CFR Southeast Asia was 1,730, with no daily or weekly change [3][12]. - The spot processing profit was 81, a daily increase of 24 and a weekly increase of 220; the on - screen processing profit was 296, a daily increase of 54 and a weekly increase of 415 [3][12]. - The import profit was - 87,056, a daily decrease of 16 and a weekly decrease of 3,271; the export profit was - 879, a daily decrease of 75 and a weekly decrease of 284 [3][12]. BD (Butadiene) - The Shandong market price on July 25 was 9,725, a daily increase of 75 and a weekly increase of 275; the Jiangsu market price was 9,750, a daily increase of 100 and a weekly increase of 300 [3][12]. - The Yangzi ex - factory price was 9,700, with no daily change and a weekly increase of 300 [3][12]. - CFR China was 1,100, with no daily change and a weekly increase of 50 [3][12]. - The carbon - four extraction profit data was incomplete; the butene oxidative dehydrogenation profit was 866, a daily increase of 100 and a weekly increase of 370 [3][12]. - The import profit was 697, a daily increase of 90 and a weekly decrease of 80; the export profit was - 1,470, a daily increase of 64 and a weekly decrease of 282 [3][12]. Downstream Profits - The Shun - Ding production profit was 296, a daily increase of 54 and a weekly increase of 415; the Ding - Ben production profit was 700, with no daily change and a weekly increase of 125 [3][12]. - The ABS production profit data was incomplete; the SBS production profit (791 - H) was 520, with no daily change and a weekly decrease of 150 [3][12]. Price Spreads - The RU - BR spread was - 33,726, a daily decrease of 143 and a weekly decrease of 31,322; the NR - BR spread was - 35,991, a daily decrease of 283 and a weekly decrease of 31,452 [3][12]. - The Thai mixed - Shun - Ding spread was 2,900, a daily increase of 100 and a weekly increase of 100; the 3L - Ding - Ben spread was 2,750, a daily decrease of 100 and a weekly increase of 100 [3][12]. - The Shun - Ding standard - non - standard price spread was 250, a daily decrease of 150 and a weekly increase of 50; the Ding - Ben 1502 - 1712 spread was 1,150, a daily increase of 50 and a weekly decrease of 50 [3][12].
研判2025!中国氯丁橡胶(CR)行业产量、开工率及进出口分析:行业需求持续增长,多领域应用推动发展潜力释放[图]
Chan Ye Xin Xi Wang· 2025-07-28 01:03
内容概况:作为全球最大的氯丁橡胶生产国和消费国之一,中国氯丁橡胶(CR)行业在汽车、建筑、 电子、医疗等多个下游领域需求持续增长的推动下,展现出较强的发展潜力。2025年1-5月,中国氯丁 橡胶(CR)产量为2.72万吨,同比增长15.80%;氯丁橡胶(CR)消费量为2.17万吨,同比增长 30.67%。 相关上市企业:中策橡胶(603049)、中化国际(600500)、海南橡胶(601118) 相关企业:中国石油化工股份有限公司、中国石油天然气股份有限公司、华新树脂(惠州)有限公司、 深圳市宝昌隆树脂有限公司、天津科恩建筑技术有限公司、北京鼎固伟业工程材料有限公司、常州强力 电子新材料股份有限公司、圣奥化学科技有限公司、山东尚舜化工有限公司、四川国光农化股份有限公 司、常州天晟新材料股份有限公司、河北华密新材科技股份有限公司、浙江仙通橡塑股份有限公司、中 策橡胶集团股份有限公司 关键词:氯丁橡胶(CR)、氯丁橡胶(CR)市场规模、氯丁橡胶(CR)行业现状、氯丁橡胶(CR) 发展趋势 一、行业概述 起步阶段(1951年至1959年)。1951年,东北科学院(中国科学院长春应用化学研究所前身)在实验室 合成出氯 ...
合成橡胶早报-20250728
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-07-28 00:02
Report Overview - Report Title: "Yongan Synthetic Rubber Morning Report" [2] - Research Team: Research Center Energy and Chemicals Team [3] - Report Date: July 28, 2025 [3] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Report Core View - Not provided in the given content 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 BR (Butadiene Rubber) 3.1.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract on July 25 was 12,415, up 130 from the previous day [4]. - The open interest of the main contract on July 25 was 49,311, an increase of 483 from the previous day and 32,097 from the previous week [4]. - The trading volume of the main contract on July 25 was 160,791, up 12,149 from the previous day and 70,426 from the previous week [4]. - The warehouse receipt quantity remained unchanged at 9,840 on July 25 compared to the previous day, with a weekly increase of 140 [4]. - The virtual - to - physical ratio on July 25 was 25.06, up 16 from the previous week [4]. 3.1.2 Basis and Spread - The butadiene rubber basis on July 25 was - 215, down 30 from the previous day and 195 from the previous week [4]. - The 8 - 9 month spread on July 25 was - 30, down 5 from the previous day and 55 from the previous week [4]. - The 9 - 10 month spread on July 25 was 15, down 25 from the previous day and 15 from the previous week [4]. 3.1.3 Spot Market - The Shandong market price of butadiene rubber on July 25 was 12,200, up 100 from the previous day and 500 from the previous week [4]. - The Transfar market price on July 25 was 12,100, up 200 from the previous day and 500 from the previous week [4]. - The Qilu Petrochemical ex - factory price on July 25 was 12,200, unchanged from the previous day but up 500 from the previous week [4]. 3.1.4 Processing and Import - Export - The spot processing profit on July 25 was 81, up 24 from the previous day and 220 from the previous week [4]. - The on - disk processing profit on July 25 was 296, up 54 from the previous day and 415 from the previous week [4]. - The import profit on July 25 was - 87,056, down 16 from the previous day and 3,271 from the previous week [4]. - The export profit on July 25 was - 879, down 75 from the previous day and 284 from the previous week [4]. 3.2 BD (Butadiene) 3.2.1 Price - The Shandong market price of butadiene on July 25 was 9,725, up 75 from the previous day and 275 from the previous week [4]. - The Jiangsu market price on July 25 was 9,750, up 100 from the previous day and 300 from the previous week [4]. - The Yangzi Petrochemical ex - factory price on July 25 was 9,700, unchanged from the previous day but up 300 from the previous week [4]. - The CFR China price on July 25 was 1,100, unchanged from the previous day and up 50 from the previous week [4]. 3.2.2 Processing and Import - Export - The carbon - four extraction profit data for July 25 was not available [4]. - The butene oxidative dehydrogenation profit on July 25 was 866, up 100 from the previous day and 370 from the previous week [4]. - The import profit on July 25 was 697, up 90 from the previous day and down 80 from the previous week [4]. - The export profit on July 25 was - 1,470, up 64 from the previous day and down 282 from the previous week [4]. 3.3 Downstream Profits - The butadiene rubber production profit on July 25 was 296, up 54 from the previous day and 415 from the previous week [4]. - The styrene - butadiene rubber production profit on July 25 was 700, unchanged from the previous day and up 125 from the previous week [4]. - The ABS production profit data for July 25 was not available [4]. - The SBS (791 - H) production profit on July 25 was 520, unchanged from the previous day and down 150 from the previous week [4]. 3.4 Variety Spreads - The RU - BR spread on July 25 was - 33,726, down 143 from the previous day and 31,322 from the previous week [4]. - The NR - BR spread on July 25 was - 35,991, down 283 from the previous day and 31,452 from the previous week [4]. - The Thai mixed - butadiene rubber spread on July 25 was 2,900, up 100 from the previous day and 100 from the previous week [4]. - The 3L - styrene - butadiene rubber spread on July 25 was 2,750, down 100 from the previous day and up 100 from the previous week [4]. - The butadiene rubber standard - non - standard price difference on July 25 was 250, down 150 from the previous day and up 50 from the previous week [4]. - The styrene - butadiene rubber 1502 - 1712 spread on July 25 was 1,150, up 50 from the previous day and down 50 from the previous week [4].
国泰君安期货能源化工合成橡胶周度报告-20250727
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-07-27 09:54
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The short - term outlook for synthetic rubber is a high - level pullback, while the medium - term trend is expected to be oscillatory. For butadiene, the short - term price is likely to experience a pullback, but the decline is expected to be limited. In the long - term, the supply pressure remains the main contradiction, and it is expected to enter a weak pattern after the macro - sentiment eases [2][4][5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 This Week's Synthetic Rubber Viewpoints - **Supply**: The production and capacity utilization rate of high - cis butadiene rubber increased significantly this week. The production was 27,200 tons, a week - on - week increase of 5.15%, and the capacity utilization rate was 67.63%, a week - on - week increase of 3.31 percentage points. It is expected that the production will continue to rise next week [4]. - **Demand**: In terms of rigid demand, the capacity utilization rate of tire sample enterprises is expected to decline. In terms of substitution demand, the spread between NR - BR main contracts remains in the range of 800 - 900 yuan/ton, and the substitution demand remains high, so the overall demand for butadiene rubber maintains a high year - on - year growth rate [4]. - **Inventory**: As of July 23, 2025 (Week 30), the inventory of high - cis butadiene rubber sample enterprises in China increased slightly, with a week - on - week increase of 0.22%. The inventory of sample production enterprises decreased slightly, while that of sample trading enterprises increased [4]. - **Valuation**: The static valuation range of butadiene rubber futures fundamentals is 11,500 - 12,400 yuan/ton, and the dynamic valuation is expected to be stable. The upper valuation limit of the fundamentals is around 12,400 - 12,500 yuan/ton, and the lower theoretical valuation bottom range is around 11,500 yuan/ton [4]. - **Strategy**: Unilateral trading is relatively strong, with upper pressure at 12,400 - 12,500 yuan/ton and lower support at 11,400 - 11,500 yuan/ton. There is no cross - period strategy, and the NR - BR spread enters a short - term oscillatory range [4]. 3.2 This Week's Butadiene Viewpoints - **Supply**: The domestic butadiene supply increased this week, with a production of 103,400 tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.99%, and the capacity utilization rate was 70.00%, a week - on - week increase of 2.04%. The increase in production was mainly due to the restart of the Shenghong Petrochemical plant [5]. - **Demand**: In the synthetic rubber sector, the operating rates of butadiene rubber and styrene - butadiene rubber remain high, and the demand for butadiene maintains a high year - on - year level. In the ABS sector, the inventory pressure is high, and the demand for butadiene is expected to remain constant. In the SBS sector, the operating rate increased slightly, and the demand for butadiene remains at a rigid level [5]. - **Inventory**: The total inventory of domestic butadiene samples continued to decline this period, with a week - on - week decrease of 8.68%. The sample port inventory decreased to a low level for the year, with the latest inventory in East China ports at around 15,700 tons, a decrease of 4,300 tons from the previous period [5]. - **Viewpoint**: In the short - term, the butadiene spot price is expected to pull back, but the decline is limited. In the long - term, the supply pressure is the main contradiction, and it is expected to enter a weak pattern after the macro - sentiment eases [5]. 3.3 Butadiene Fundamentals - **Capacity**: Butadiene is in a state of continuous expansion to match the expansion of downstream industries, and the expansion speed and amplitude are slightly faster than those of downstream industries at certain stages. In 2024, the total new capacity was 380,000 tons, and in 2025, it is expected to be 860,000 tons [10][12]. - **Supply - side - Operating Rate**: The operating rate and production of butadiene have shown certain fluctuations. Some plants have experienced shutdowns and restarts, affecting the overall supply [14][15]. - **Net Imports**: The net imports of butadiene have also fluctuated, affected by factors such as import and export prices and market demand [16]. - **Demand - side - Capacity of Butadiene Rubber and Styrene - Butadiene Rubber**: The capacities of butadiene rubber and styrene - butadiene rubber have been increasing, with new production capacities put into operation in multiple enterprises in recent years [17]. - **Demand - side - Operating and Maintenance Conditions of Butadiene Rubber and Styrene - Butadiene Rubber**: The operating rates of butadiene rubber and styrene - butadiene rubber have shown fluctuations, and some plants have planned shutdowns for maintenance [20][21][22]. - **Demand - side - Capacity of ABS and SBS**: The capacities of ABS and SBS have also been expanding. In 2024, the ABS capacity increased by 2.06 million tons, and in 2025, it is expected to increase by 1.5 million tons. In 2024, the SBS capacity increased by 160,000 tons, and in 2025, it is expected to increase by 40,000 tons [26]. - **Inventory - side**: The enterprise inventory, port inventory, and total inventory of butadiene have all shown certain trends of change over time [29][30][31]. 3.4 Synthetic Rubber Fundamentals - **Butadiene Rubber - Supply - Production**: The production of high - cis butadiene rubber has shown fluctuations, and the operating rates of different plants vary. Some plants have restarted, while others have planned shutdowns for maintenance [35][36]. - **Butadiene Rubber - Supply - Cost and Profit**: The theoretical production cost, profit, and gross profit margin of butadiene rubber have shown different trends over time [37][38][39]. - **Butadiene Rubber - Supply - Import and Export**: The monthly import and export volumes of butadiene rubber have shown certain fluctuations [40][41]. - **Butadiene Rubber - Supply - Inventory**: The enterprise inventory, futures inventory, and trader inventory of butadiene rubber have all shown different trends of change [46][47]. - **Butadiene Rubber - Demand - Tires**: The inventory and operating rates of full - steel and semi - steel tires in Shandong Province have shown certain trends of change, which have an impact on the demand for butadiene rubber [50][51].
国泰君安期货能源化工:合成橡胶周度报告-20250727
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-07-27 08:25
1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Report's Core View - The short - term outlook for synthetic rubber is a high - level pullback, while the medium - term trend is expected to be in a volatile pattern. For butadiene, the short - term price is expected to correct, and in the long - term, it will re - enter a weak pattern after the macro sentiment eases [2][4][5]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 This Week's Synthetic Rubber View Supply - The production capacity of previously restarted high - cis butadiene rubber plants was released, and the load of an individual plant in North China increased. The output of high - cis butadiene rubber this week was 27,200 tons, a week - on - week increase of 5.15%, and the capacity utilization rate was 67.63%, a week - on - week increase of 3.31 percentage points. Yanshan Petrochemical's butadiene rubber plant has produced high - grade products after restarting. It is expected that the production of domestic butadiene rubber will continue to increase next week [4]. Demand - In terms of rigid demand, the capacity utilization rate of tire sample enterprises is expected to decline in the next cycle. At the end of the month, the overall shipment of enterprises was lower than expected, the finished product inventory increased slightly, and some enterprises have short - term maintenance plans from late July to early August, which will drag down the overall capacity utilization rate. In terms of substitution demand, the price difference between NR - BR main contracts remains in the range of 800 - 900 yuan/ton, and the substitution demand remains high. Therefore, the overall demand side of butadiene rubber maintains a high year - on - year growth rate [4]. Inventory - As of July 23, 2025 (Week 30), the inventory of high - cis butadiene rubber sample enterprises in China was 32,300 tons, a slight increase from the previous period, with a week - on - week increase of 0.22%. Due to the influence of macro news and rising raw material costs, the spot and futures markets were expected to be strong, the supply price increased significantly, and some arbitrageurs actively tried to buy, resulting in a slight decrease in the inventory of sample producers and an increase in the inventory of sample traders [4]. View - In the short term, the futures price of butadiene rubber is expected to pull back from a high level and enter a volatile pattern in the medium term. On Friday night, with a large number of speculative funds leaving the market, the commodity index fell from a high level, and synthetic rubber followed suit. In addition, with the strengthening of the basis, the liquidity of spot and futures sources in the spot market is expected to be released, bringing supply - side selling pressure to the spot market. In the medium term, butadiene rubber is expected to fluctuate mainly due to three reasons: the anti - involution policy is still in progress, which supports the overall valuation of commodities; the overall rubber sector is supported by fluctuations, and the raw material prices in Thailand have stabilized; the fundamentals of the synthetic rubber industry chain have improved marginally, with the inventory of synthetic rubber sample enterprises decreasing slightly for three consecutive weeks, and the tight supply of port goods due to the low arrival volume of butadiene in July [4]. Valuation - The static valuation range of butadiene rubber futures fundamentals is 11,500 - 12,400 yuan/ton, and the dynamic valuation is expected to be stable. The upper limit of the fundamental valuation is 12,400 - 12,500 yuan/ton. When the main BR2509 contract has a premium of about 100 yuan/ton over the market price in Shandong (the monthly holding cost is about 90 yuan/ton), there is a risk - free arbitrage opportunity, which will increase the pressure on the upper space of the futures market. The theoretical lower limit of the valuation is 11,500 yuan/ton, as butadiene is expected to support the butadiene rubber price from the cost side [4]. Strategy - For single - side trading, it is relatively strong, with the upper pressure at 12,400 - 12,500 yuan/ton and the lower support at 11,400 - 11,500 yuan/ton. There is no strategy for inter - delivery spread trading, and the NR - BR price difference will enter a volatile range in the short term [4]. 3.2 This Week's Butadiene View Supply - Some plants restarted operation this week, increasing the domestic butadiene supply. The output this period was 103,400 tons, a 2.99% increase from the previous period, and the capacity utilization rate was 70.00%, a 2.04% increase from the previous period. The increase in output was mainly due to the restart of Shenghong Petrochemical's plant [5]. Demand - In the synthetic rubber sector, the operating rates of butadiene rubber and styrene - butadiene rubber remained high, maintaining a high year - on - year demand for butadiene. With the resumption of butadiene rubber plants, the rigid demand for butadiene in synthetic rubber is expected to increase. For ABS, due to high inventory pressure, the demand for butadiene is expected to remain constant with no significant increase. For SBS, the operating rate increased slightly, and the demand for butadiene remained at a rigid level with limited price changes [5]. Inventory - From July 17 - 23, 2025, the total inventory of domestic butadiene samples continued to decline, with a week - on - week decrease of 8.68%. The inventory of sample enterprises decreased slightly by 1.07% week - on - week, and the overall inventory fluctuation was limited. The inventory of sample ports decreased by 21.50% week - on - week, reaching a record low for the year due to reasons such as weather - related delays in some ship arrivals and limited imports in July, resulting in tight tradable volumes in the main port storage areas [5]. View - In the short term, as commodities correct and trading volume weakens, the spot price of butadiene is expected to decline. However, the decline is expected to be limited as the arrival volume of butadiene in July is expected to be low, and port prices may remain resilient. In the long term, the supply pressure of butadiene is the main contradiction, and the fundamentals are still under pressure. It is expected to re - enter a weak pattern after the macro sentiment eases [5]. 3.3 Butadiene Fundamentals Capacity - To support the expansion of downstream industries such as ABS, SBS, styrene - butadiene, and butadiene rubber, butadiene production capacity has been continuously expanding, with the speed and amplitude of expansion being slightly faster than that of downstream industries at certain stages [10]. Supply - side (Capacity and Maintenance) - Many plants have new production capacity coming on - stream from 2024 to 2025, with a total of 380,000 tons in 2024 and 860,000 tons in 2025. There have also been multiple plant maintenance events, affecting production capacity utilization [10][12][15]. Demand - side - The production capacity of downstream butadiene rubber and styrene - butadiene rubber has been expanding, and new plants have been put into operation. The production capacity of ABS and SBS has also increased, with significant capacity increments in 2024 and 2025 [17][26]. Inventory - side - The weekly enterprise inventory, port inventory, and total inventory of butadiene have shown different trends over time, with the current port inventory at a low level due to factors such as limited imports and weather - related delays [29][30][31]. 3.4 Synthetic Rubber Fundamentals (Butadiene Rubber) Supply - The production and operating rates of butadiene rubber have changed. Some plants have restarted, and some have planned maintenance. The production cost, profit, and import - export volume of butadiene rubber also have corresponding trends [36][37][41]. Demand - The demand for butadiene rubber is mainly related to the tire industry. The inventory and operating rates of full - steel and semi - steel tires in Shandong Province have shown different trends over time, which will affect the demand for butadiene rubber [51][52].
研判2025!中国丁基橡胶(IIR)行业产业链、产量及价格分析:产量激增与消费升级并行,技术突破与需求扩容双轮驱动[图]
Chan Ye Xin Xi Wang· 2025-07-26 02:39
Industry Overview - The Chinese isobutylene isoprene rubber (IIR) industry has experienced rapid growth but remains in a "large but not strong" phase [1][13] - In the first five months of 2025, China's IIR production reached 135,700 tons, a year-on-year increase of 105.02%, while consumption was 228,600 tons, up 52.77% [1][13] - The industry is undergoing capacity expansion and technological upgrades, leading to a significant increase in overall production [1][13] - Domestic breakthroughs in halogenated butyl rubber (HIIR) technology have improved the self-sufficiency of high-end products, reducing reliance on imports [1][13] Demand Drivers - The domestic tire industry is recovering, particularly with the rapid development of new energy vehicles and high-end radial tires, significantly increasing the demand for high-performance IIR [1][13] - Emerging application fields such as pharmaceutical packaging and sealing materials are also growing rapidly, further expanding the market space for IIR [1][13] Industry Development Stages - The IIR industry in China has gone through three main stages: 1. **Initial Stage (1966-1999)**: The first domestic IIR production facility was established in 1999, ending complete reliance on imports [4] 2. **Capacity Expansion Stage (2000-2020)**: Significant capacity expansion occurred, with major players developing their production capabilities [5] 3. **Market Maturity Stage (2021-Present)**: The industry has seen optimization in processes and increased support from the government for technological innovation [6] Industry Chain - The upstream of the IIR industry includes raw materials such as isobutylene and isoprene, while the midstream involves the manufacturing of IIR [8] - The downstream applications include tires, pharmaceutical bottle stoppers, waterproof materials, and sealing adhesives [8] Key Enterprises - Major players in the IIR industry include: - **Sinopec Beijing Yanshan Petrochemical**: The first to achieve IIR industrialization in China with a capacity of 135,000 tons/year [17][18] - **Zhejiang Xinhui New Materials**: The largest domestic producer with an annual capacity exceeding 250,000 tons [17][20] - **Jingbo Zhongju New Materials**: A subsidiary of Jingbo Group with a capacity of about 120,000 tons/year [17][24] Future Trends - The industry is expected to shift towards high-end and functional products, with halogenated IIR gradually replacing traditional IIR due to superior properties [24] - There is a strong focus on green and sustainable development, with companies adopting cleaner production processes and developing bio-based and degradable rubber products [25] - Market competition is intensifying, with leading companies likely to increase their market share while smaller firms may face consolidation or exit [26]
广发期货日评-20250725
Guang Fa Qi Huo· 2025-07-25 02:49
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - In the context of anti - involution narratives and expectations of incremental policies, the overall stock and commodity markets remain strong, while long - term bonds are under pressure. The market is affected by factors such as trade negotiations, central bank policies, and supply - demand relationships in different sectors [2]. 3. Summary by Categories Equity Index - There is an obvious high - low rotation among sectors. It is recommended to gradually take profits on long positions in IM futures and switch to a small amount of short positions in put options on MO with a strike price of 6000 in the 08 contract, and reduce positions, maintaining a moderately bullish stance. On the unilateral strategy, it is advisable to stay on the sidelines in the short term and pay attention to the capital situation and incremental policies [2]. Treasury Bonds - The risk assets suppress long - term bonds. With the tightening of the capital market, the short - selling sentiment in the bond futures market has increased, and the redemption pressure on bond funds may start to rise, which still suppresses the bond market. In terms of the curve strategy, it is possible to continue to bet on the steepening [2]. Precious Metals - Gold is supported by the weakening of the US dollar's credit and its commodity attributes, and it oscillates above the 60 - day moving average. Silver has further upside potential due to the general rise of domestic industrial products and capital inflows, and long positions can be held. Gold continues to correct as the European Central Bank pauses rate cuts for the first time in a year and the risk - aversion sentiment eases [2]. Shipping Index (European Line) - The EC main contract rebounds slightly. With the increasing expectation of anti - involution, the price continues to oscillate strongly. It is recommended to hold short positions in the 08 contract or short the 10 contract at high prices [2]. Steel and Iron Ore - The iron ore has insufficient upward momentum as the molten iron output slightly decreases and the port inventory slightly increases. It is recommended to go long on coking coal and short on iron ore. The steel price continues to oscillate strongly, and long positions can be held [2]. Coking Coal and Coke - The expectation of production - restriction documents is rising, the resumption of coal mines is lagging, the spot market is strong, and the transaction is picking up. The third round of price increases by mainstream coking plants has started, and there is still an expectation of price increases. It is recommended to take profits on long positions step by step at high prices [2]. Non - ferrous Metals - Copper: The short - term sentiment fades, and high copper prices suppress demand. - Aluminum: The market sentiment is bullish, and the aluminum price oscillates at a high level, but the expectation of inventory accumulation in the off - season is still strong. - Other non - ferrous metals also have different market trends and corresponding trading suggestions based on factors such as macro - sentiment, inventory, and supply - demand [2]. Energy and Chemicals - Crude oil: The macro - sentiment eases, and the demand expectation recovers, pushing up the oil price. - Other energy and chemical products such as urea, PX, PTA, etc., have different market trends and trading suggestions according to factors such as supply - demand, macro - environment, and cost [2]. Agricultural Products - Different agricultural products such as soybeans, corn, palm oil, etc., have different market trends and trading suggestions based on factors such as supply - demand, weather, and policy [2]. Special Commodities - Glass: The document on air pollution prevention boosts market sentiment, and the spot transaction is strong. - Rubber: The macro - sentiment is positive, and supply disruptions due to rainy weather in overseas production areas and conflicts between Thailand and Cambodia drive up the rubber price. - Other special commodities also have corresponding market trends and trading suggestions [2]. New Energy - Polysilicon futures oscillate and rise to a new high, but attention should be paid to the risk of a pullback due to the increase in warehouse receipts. - Recycled lithium: The market sentiment is boosted, but the fundamental change is not significant. It is recommended to be cautious and stay on the sidelines [2].
合成橡胶早报-20250725
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-07-25 01:26
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研判2025!中国乙丙橡胶(EPM)行业产量、价格及毛利润分析:行业技术升级助力产量增长,新能源汽车需求推动市场发展[图]
Chan Ye Xin Xi Wang· 2025-07-25 01:24
Core Viewpoint - The Chinese ethylene-propylene rubber (EPM) industry is experiencing significant growth driven by technological advancements and increasing demand, particularly in the automotive sector, with production and consumption showing substantial year-on-year increases in early 2025 [1][11]. Industry Overview - Ethylene-propylene rubber (EPM) is a synthetic rubber produced from the polymerization of ethylene and propylene monomers, characterized by its excellent aging resistance, ozone resistance, heat resistance, and chemical corrosion resistance [2][4]. Industry Development History - The development of the Chinese EPM industry has gone through four stages: 1. Initial stage (1960-1977) with early research and small-scale production [4]. 2. Rapid development stage (1978-2014) marked by the introduction of foreign technology and significant production capacity increases [4][5]. 3. Industrial upgrade stage (2015-2020) where domestic companies improved production efficiency and reduced import dependency [5][6]. 4. High-end transformation stage (2020-present) focusing on technological breakthroughs and product quality enhancement [6]. Industry Chain - The upstream of the EPM industry chain includes raw materials (ethylene, propylene, catalysts, solvents) and production equipment [9]. The midstream involves the manufacturing of EPM, while the downstream applications span automotive parts, rubber products, polymer modification, and electrical cables [9]. Current Industry Status - In the first five months of 2025, China's EPM production reached 128,800 tons, a year-on-year increase of 9.09%, while consumption was 201,800 tons, up 19.82% [1][11]. The automotive sector, particularly with the rise of electric vehicles, is a key driver of demand [1][11]. Key Enterprises - The EPM industry is highly concentrated, with major players including: - Arlanxeo (Changzhou) with a capacity of 160,000 tons/year, leading in high-performance EPDM [19][20]. - Jilin Petrochemical with a capacity of 85,000 tons/year, focusing on domestic technology and cost optimization [19][20]. - Shanghai Sinopec Mitsui with a capacity of 75,000 tons/year, leveraging Sino-Japanese technology [19][20]. - SK Global Chemical and Yan'an Energy Chemical with capacities of 50,000 tons/year and 25,000 tons/year, respectively [19][20]. Industry Development Trends 1. **Technological-Driven High-End Transformation**: The industry is shifting from scale expansion to technological breakthroughs, with innovations in catalyst systems and production processes [26]. 2. **Structural Upgrade in Market Demand**: There is a significant transition in demand from traditional to emerging applications, particularly in the automotive and electrical sectors [27]. 3. **Green and Sustainable Development**: The industry faces challenges related to rising costs and stricter environmental regulations, prompting investments in technology upgrades and recycling initiatives [28].