Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - The overall supply of domestic butadiene rubber is sufficient, with production resuming and increasing. The cost and supply side lack positive drivers, and some industry players are waiting to see if the ex - factory prices of Sinopec and PetroChina resources will be lowered. - The inventory of production enterprises has increased slightly, while that of trading enterprises has decreased. It is expected that the overall inventory level of enterprises will decline slightly during the National Day holiday as downstream terminals may gradually pick up goods. - Tire enterprises generally maintained their previous operating levels last week, with only minor adjustments in overall operation. Some small - scale semi - steel tire sample enterprises entered the National Day holiday for maintenance due to insufficient orders, which will drag down the tire enterprises' capacity utilization rate this week. - The BR2511 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 11,000 - 11,600 yuan/ton in the short term [2] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract of synthetic rubber was 11,340 yuan/ton, a decrease of 90 yuan/ton; the position volume of the main contract was 38,550, a decrease of 1,541. The 10 - 11 spread of synthetic rubber was 35 yuan/ton, unchanged. The total number of warehouse receipts for butadiene rubber in warehouses was 2,670 tons, unchanged [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The mainstream price of BR9000 from Qilu Petrochemical in Shandong was 11,550 yuan/ton, unchanged; that from Daqing Petrochemical in Shandong was 11,450 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan/ton; that from Daqing Petrochemical in Shanghai was 11,550 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan/ton; and that from Maoming Petrochemical in Guangdong was 11,600 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis of synthetic rubber was 110 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan/ton [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - Brent crude oil was at $70.13 per barrel, an increase of $0.71; WTI crude oil was at $65.72 per barrel, an increase of $0.74. The price of Northeast Asian ethylene was $815 per ton, a decrease of $5; the price of naphtha CFR Japan was $608 per ton, a decrease of $0.5; the intermediate price of butadiene CFR China was $1,060 per ton, unchanged. The market price of butadiene in the Shandong market was 9,100 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] - The weekly capacity of butadiene was 155,400 tons, an increase of 4,300 tons; the capacity utilization rate was 66.3%, a decrease of 0.48 percentage points. The port inventory of butadiene was 27,750 tons, an increase of 4,650 tons; the operating rate of Shandong refineries' atmospheric and vacuum distillation units was 53.49%, an increase of 1.64 percentage points [2] - The monthly output of butadiene rubber was 135,700 tons, an increase of 6,500 tons; the weekly capacity utilization rate was 66.41%, a decrease of 3.31 percentage points. The weekly production profit of butadiene rubber was - 544 yuan/ton, an increase of 114 yuan/ton. The social inventory of butadiene rubber was 32,300 tons, a decrease of 1,400 tons; the manufacturer's inventory was 26,600 tons, an increase of 700 tons; the trader's inventory was 5,700 tons, a decrease of 2,120 tons [2] 3.4 Downstream Situation - The monthly output of all - steel tires was 13.03 million pieces, an increase of 280,000 pieces; the monthly output of semi - steel tires was 58.06 million pieces, an increase of 1.09 million pieces. The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong were 39.16 days, an increase of 0.03 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong were 46.15 days, an increase of 0.13 days [2] - The operating rate of domestic semi - steel tires was 73.58%, a decrease of 0.08 percentage points; the operating rate of domestic all - steel tires was 65.72%, an increase of 0.06 percentage points [2] 3.5 Industry News - As of September 24, the inventory of domestic butadiene rubber sample enterprises was 32,300 tons, a decrease of 1,400 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month decrease of 4.21%. - As of September 25, the capacity utilization rate of Chinese semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 72.64%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.10 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 6.95 percentage points. The capacity utilization rate of Chinese all - steel tire sample enterprises was 66.39%, a month - on - month increase of 0.03 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 6.27 percentage points. Tire enterprises generally maintained their previous operating levels to reserve post - holiday inventory, with only minor adjustments in overall operation [2] 3.6 Key Concerns - No news on this day [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view of the synthetic rubber industry is "oscillating bearish" [2] 2. Core View of the Report - The domestic butadiene market has weakened slightly. Butadiene rubber is affected by macro - sentiment, and the market's attempt to support prices has been hindered. Under the pressure of high inventory and high production, the synthetic rubber market is viewed with a bearish attitude in the short - term. In terms of valuation, the correlation between the BR futures and NR has increased, showing stronger rubber - related attributes [2] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - During the reporting period, the prices of high - cis butadiene rubber of Sinopec Chemical Marketing and major sales companies of PetroChina remained stable. As of September 25, 2025, the mainstream ex - factory price of high - cis butadiene rubber in China was between 11,700 - 11,800 yuan/ton. The temporary shutdown of Shandong Yihua's butadiene rubber plant due to a malfunction did not boost the supply in the short - term as the overall supply of private spot resources was sufficient, and there was an expectation of concentrated restart of maintenance plants at the end of September. The increase in external supply of butadiene led to a decline in the transaction center, and the cost side also lacked driving force. Although the mainstream supply price of butadiene rubber was lowered at the end of the previous period, the price centers of arbitrage resources and private resources in the first and middle of the week were still significantly lower than the spot cost of the two - oil resources. Some industry players were still waiting for a further decline in the mainstream supply price. In the middle and late weeks, the supply of low - priced arbitrage resources decreased, and the price gap between high - end and low - end spot narrowed slightly. As the pre - holiday stocking was coming to an end, downstream buyers continued to purchase on dips [3] 3.2 Supply and Demand Analysis 3.2.1 Supply - **Butadiene**: Last week, the domestic butadiene production was 103,000 tons (-1.91%), and the capacity utilization rate was 66.3%. Devices such as Nanjing Chengzhi, Sierbang, Yanshan Petrochemical, Dongming Petrochemical, Jilin Petrochemical Phase I, Fushun Petrochemical, and Fujian Refining & Petrochemical's No.1 unit remained shut down, and production continued to decline [2] - **Butadiene Rubber**: The butadiene rubber plants of Shandong Weite, Taiyo - Yuubu, and Haopu New Materials continued maintenance. Shandong Yihua's plant was shut down temporarily due to a malfunction. The production and capacity utilization rate of high - cis butadiene rubber decreased [2] 3.2.2 Demand - **Semi - steel Tires**: During the period, the market trading was dull. In some regions, the sales of all - season tires were weak, the social inventory was sufficient and the consumption was slow, so agents were not active in purchasing. For the snow - tire market, product promotion meetings of various brands were held one after another, and the channel inventory was relatively sufficient. Future attention should be paid to the terminal demand [2] - **All - steel Tires**: During the period, the market trading was average, mainly for regular sales, and the transaction price was stable. There was no obvious pre - holiday stocking, and the inventory was mainly consumed during the period. It is expected that the market stocking volume will increase significantly in the next period [2] 3.3 Inventory Analysis - **Butadiene**: Last week, the butadiene port inventory was 277,500 tons, a week - on - week increase of 20.13%. Some devices continued to operate at reduced capacity, the refinery inventory decreased, and the suppliers sold more goods before the holiday, so the inventory remained at a relatively low level. The port inventory increased significantly due to the arrival of ocean - going vessels during the week, but there was no obvious short - term inventory pressure [2] - **Butadiene Rubber**: The inventory of high - cis butadiene rubber enterprises + traders was 32,300 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 4.21%. The inventory of sample production enterprises increased slightly, while the inventory of sample trading enterprises decreased [2] 3.4 Price and Spread Analysis - **Price**: The prices of high - cis butadiene rubber of major enterprises remained stable during the period, but most prices showed a week - on - week downward trend. For example, the ex - factory price of Sinopec's North China Qilu, North China Yanshan, East China Yangzi, and South China Maoming decreased by 200 yuan/ton week - on - week [7][8] - **Spread/Price Ratio**: The RU - BR spread was 4,040 yuan/ton (-1.22%); the NR - BR spread was 1,005 yuan/ton (+17.54%); the BR - SC price ratio was - 0.12% [2] 3.5 Profit Analysis - The production profit of butadiene through oxidative dehydrogenation of butene was 186 yuan/ton, and the production profit through C4 extraction was 1,861.1 yuan/ton. The production profit of butadiene rubber was - 225 yuan/ton, and the gross profit rate was - 1.89% [2] 3.6 Geopolitical and Macroeconomic Factors - On September 25 local time, US President Trump announced on his social media platform that a 25% tariff would be imposed on all imported heavy - duty trucks starting from October 1. The crude oil market is in a range - bound game due to geopolitical factors, sanctions, and the expected oversupply in the fundamentals caused by OPEC+ production increases. The US non - farm payroll data for August was lower than market expectations, and the Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25bp as expected, with two more interest rate cuts expected within the year, with a total cut of 50bp or more. Geopolitical situations in Russia - Ukraine, US - Venezuela, and the Middle East are frequently disturbed in the short - term and show a tense trend [2] 3.7 Trading Strategy - **Single - side Trading**: Oscillating upward - **Arbitrage**: Pay attention to the strategy of going long on BR and short on NR/RU. Key risks to monitor include downstream demand, cost changes, device maintenance, and geopolitical factors [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The synthetic rubber market is expected to operate weakly in the short term. The butadiene market will experience short - term fluctuations and is likely to enter a weak pattern in the medium to long term due to supply pressure [2][4][5]. - For cis - butadiene rubber, the short - term trend is oscillatory and under pressure, with a neutral downward drive. However, from a valuation perspective, the decline rate is expected to slow down. The market presents a pattern of both increasing supply and demand, but the supply growth rate is higher than the demand growth rate, leading to increased inventory pressure [4]. 3. Summary Based on Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Butadiene Fundamental Analysis 3.1.1 Supply - In the current cycle (20250919 - 0925), the estimated weekly output of Chinese butadiene industry sample enterprises was 103,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 2,100 tons or 2.03%. Next week, the estimated weekly output of Chinese butadiene sample enterprises will be around 105,900 tons, continuing to increase [5]. - To support the expansion of downstream industries such as ABS, SBS, styrene - butadiene, and cis - butadiene, butadiene production capacity is continuously expanding, with the expansion speed and amplitude slightly faster than that of downstream industries at certain stages [10]. 3.1.2 Demand - In the synthetic rubber sector, the operating rates of cis - butadiene rubber and styrene - butadiene rubber remain high, maintaining a year - on - year high demand for butadiene. With the resumption of cis - butadiene rubber plants, the rigid demand for butadiene from synthetic rubber is expected to increase [5]. - In the ABS sector, due to high inventory pressure, the demand for butadiene is expected to remain constant with limited incremental demand. In the SBS sector, the operating rate has slightly increased, and the demand for butadiene remains at a rigid level with little change [5]. 3.1.3 Inventory - In the current cycle (20250918 - 0924), the total inventory of domestic butadiene samples has rebounded, with a week - on - week increase of 6.72%. Among them, the inventory of sample enterprises decreased by 3.44% week - on - week, while the inventory of sample ports increased significantly by 20.13% week - on - week. As of September 24, the latest inventory at East China ports was about 27,750 tons, an increase of 4,650 tons from the previous cycle [5]. 3.2 Synthetic Rubber Fundamental Analysis 3.2.1 Cis - Butadiene Rubber Supply - In the current cycle, the production of high - cis butadiene rubber was 26,700 tons, a decrease of 1,300 tons or 4.75% from the previous week. The capacity utilization rate was 66.41%, a decrease of 3.31 percentage points from the previous week. It is expected that the cis - butadiene rubber plants of Haopu New Materials and Taixiang Yubu will resume operation in the next cycle [4]. - The theoretical static valuation range of cis - butadiene rubber futures is 10,900 - 11,800 yuan/ton, and the dynamic valuation range is expected to gradually decline due to the increase in butadiene arrivals [4]. 3.2.2 Cis - Butadiene Rubber Demand - In terms of rigid demand, it is expected that the capacity utilization rate of tire sample enterprises will significantly decline in the next cycle. During the "National Day" holiday, some enterprises plan to take a 5 - 8 - day holiday starting from September 30 or October 1, which will have a significant impact on the capacity utilization rate of sample enterprises next week [4]. - In terms of substitution demand, the price difference between the NR - BR main contracts currently remains in the range of 800 - 1,000 yuan/ton, and the substitution demand remains high. Therefore, the overall demand for cis - butadiene rubber maintains a year - on - year high growth rate [4]. 3.2.3 Cis - Butadiene Rubber Inventory - As of September 24, 2025, the inventory of domestic cis - butadiene rubber sample enterprises was 32,300 tons, a decrease of 1,400 tons or 4.21% from the previous cycle. The inventory of sample production enterprises slightly increased, while the inventory of sample trading enterprises decreased [4].

Report Overview - Report Title: Synthetic Rubber Morning Report [2][11][20] - Report Date: September 26, 2025 [2][11][20] - Research Team: Energy and Chemicals Team of the Research Center [2][11][20] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View - Not explicitly stated in the report. The report mainly presents data on the synthetic rubber market, including prices, trading volumes, and profit margins. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 BR (Butadiene Rubber) 3.1.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract on September 25 was 11,545, a daily increase of 25 and a weekly increase of 130 [3][12][21]. - The trading volume of the main contract on September 25 was 83,682, a daily decrease of 29,720 and a weekly decrease of 32,429 [3][12][21]. - The open interest of the main contract on September 25 was 51,154, a daily decrease of 7,496 and a weekly decrease of 23,349 [3][12][21]. - The warehouse receipt quantity on September 25 was 9,250, a daily increase of 100 and a weekly decrease of 1,740 [3][12][21]. - The virtual - to - physical ratio on September 25 was 27.65, a daily decrease of 4 and a weekly decrease of 6 [3][12][21]. 3.1.2 Basis and Spread - The butadiene basis on September 25 was 35, a daily decrease of 25 and a weekly decrease of 100 [3][12][21]. - The 8 - 9 month spread on September 25 was - 5, a daily decrease of 15 and a weekly decrease of 170 [3][12][21]. - The 9 - 10 month spread on September 25 was 190, a daily decrease of 40 and a weekly increase of 45 [3][12][21]. 3.1.3 Spot Market - The Shandong market price on September 25 was 11,580, with no daily change and a weekly increase of 30 [3][12][21]. - The Chuanhua market price on September 25 was 11,500, with no daily change and a weekly increase of 50 [3][12][21]. - The Qilu ex - factory price on September 25 was 11,700, with no daily or weekly change [3][12][21]. 3.1.4 Processing and Import - Export - The spot processing profit on September 25 was - 121, a daily increase of 87 and a weekly increase of 142 [3][12][21]. - The futures processing profit on September 25 was - 156, a daily increase of 112 and a weekly increase of 242 [3][12][21]. - The import profit on September 25 was - 83,107, a daily decrease of 151 and a weekly decrease of 128 [3][12][21]. - The export profit on September 25 was - 38, a daily increase of 16 and a weekly decrease of 187 [3][12][21]. 3.2 BD (Butadiene) 3.2.1 Price - The Shandong market price on September 25 was 9,315, a daily decrease of 85 and a weekly decrease of 110 [3][12][21]. - The Jiangsu market price on September 25 was 9,175, with no daily change [3][12][21]. - The Yangzi ex - factory price on September 25 was 9,150, with no daily change and a weekly decrease of 100 [3][12][21]. - The CFR China price on September 25 was 1,060, with no daily change and a weekly decrease of 30 [3][12][21]. 3.2.2 Processing and Import - Export - The carbon four extraction profit data on September 25 was not available [3][12][21]. - The butene oxidative dehydrogenation profit on September 25 was 361, with no daily change and a weekly increase of 305 [3][12][21]. - The import profit on September 25 was 492, a daily decrease of 14 and a weekly increase of 252 [3][12][21]. - The export profit on September 25 was - 1,080, a daily decrease of 60 and a weekly decrease of 259 [3][12][21]. 3.3 Downstream Profit - The butadiene production profit on September 25 was - 156, a daily increase of 112 and a weekly increase of 242 [3][12][21]. - The styrene - butadiene production profit on September 25 was 1,063, with no daily change and a weekly increase of 125 [3][12][21]. - The ABS production profit on September 25 was 106, a daily decrease of 19 and a weekly increase of 109 [3][12][21]. - The SBS (791 - H) production profit on September 25 was 985, with no daily change and a weekly increase of 130 [3][12][21]. 3.4 Price Spreads 3.4.1 Inter - Variety Spreads - The RU - BR spread on September 25 was - 35,584, a daily increase of 7,446 and a weekly increase of 23,349 [3][12][21]. - The NR - BR spread on September 25 was - 38,724, a daily increase of 7,461 and a weekly increase of 23,479 [3][12][21]. - The Thai mixed - butadiene spread data on September 25 was not available [3][12][21]. - The 3L - styrene - butadiene spread on September 25 was 3,100, a daily decrease of 50 and a weekly increase of 50 [3][12][21]. 3.4.2 Intra - Variety Spreads - The butadiene standard - non - standard price spread on September 25 was 180, a daily increase of 20 and a weekly increase of 30 [3][12][21]. - The styrene - butadiene 1502 - 1712 spread on September 25 was 1,000, with no daily or weekly change [3][12][21].

Group 1: Report Information - Report Title: Synthetic Rubber Morning Report [2] - Research Team: Energy and Chemicals Team of the Research Center [2] - Report Date: September 26, 2025 [2] Group 2: BR (Butadiene Rubber) Market Data Futures Market - On September 25, the closing price of the main contract was 11,545, with a daily increase of 25 and a weekly increase of 130 [3] - The open interest of the main contract was 51,154, a daily decrease of 7,496 and a weekly decrease of 23,349 [3] - The trading volume of the main contract was 83,682, a daily decrease of 29,720 and a weekly decrease of 32,429 [3] - The warrant quantity was 9,250, a daily increase of 100 and a weekly decrease of 1,740 [3] - The virtual - to - real ratio was 27.65, a daily decrease of 4 and a weekly decrease of 6 [3] Basis and Spread - The basis of cis - butadiene was 155, a daily decrease of 25 and a weekly decrease of 130 [3] - The 8 - 9 spread was - 5, a daily decrease of 15 and a weekly decrease of 170; the 9 - 10 spread was 190, a daily decrease of 40 and a weekly increase of 45 [3] Spot Market - The Shandong market price was 11,580, unchanged daily and up 30 weekly; the Transfar market price was 11,500, unchanged daily and up 50 weekly [3] - The Qilu ex - factory price was 11,700, unchanged both daily and weekly [3] - CFR Northeast Asia was 1,500, unchanged daily and down 25 weekly; CFR Southeast Asia was 1,700, unchanged both daily and weekly [3] Processing and Import - Export - The spot processing profit was - 121, a daily increase of 87 and a weekly increase of 142; the futures processing profit was - 156, a daily increase of 112 and a weekly increase of 242 [3] - The import profit was - 83,107, a daily decrease of 151 and a weekly decrease of 128; the export profit was - 38, a daily increase of 16 and a weekly decrease of 187 [3] Group 3: BD (Butadiene) Market Data Price - The Shandong market price was 9,315, a daily decrease of 82 and a weekly decrease of 110; the Jiangsu market price was 9,175, unchanged daily and up 25 weekly [3] - The Yangzi ex - factory price was 9,150, unchanged both daily and weekly; CFR China was 1,060, unchanged daily and down 30 weekly [3] Processing and Import - Export - The carbon - four extraction profit was not available; the butylene oxidative dehydrogenation profit was 361, unchanged daily and up 305 weekly [3] - The import profit was 492, a daily decrease of 14 and a weekly increase of 252; the export profit was - 1,080, a daily decrease of 60 and a weekly decrease of 259 [3] Group 4: Downstream Profit Data - The cis - butadiene production profit was - 156, a daily increase of 112 and a weekly increase of 242; the styrene - butadiene production profit was 1,063, unchanged daily and up 125 weekly [3] - The ABS production profit was 106, a daily decrease of 19 and a weekly increase of 109; the SBS (791 - H) production profit was 985, unchanged daily and up 130 weekly [3] Group 5: Inter - variety Spread Data - RU - BR was - 35,584, a daily increase of 7,446 and a weekly increase of 23,349; NR - BR was - 38,724, a daily increase of 7,461 and a weekly increase of 23,479 [3] - The Thai mixed - cis - butadiene spread was not available; the 3L - styrene - butadiene spread was 3,100, a daily decrease of 50 and a weekly increase of 50 [3] - The cis - butadiene standard - non - standard spread was 180, a daily increase of 20 and a weekly increase of 30; the styrene - butadiene 1502 - 1712 spread was 1,000, unchanged both daily and weekly [3]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The overall supply of domestic cis - butadiene rubber is sufficient, with increased production and more external resources of raw material butadiene. There is a lack of positive factors in cost and supply, and some industry players are waiting to see if the ex - factory prices of Sinopec and PetroChina resources will be lowered. [2] - Near the National Day holiday, downstream terminals may start to pick up goods, and the overall inventory level of enterprises is expected to decline slightly. [2] - The capacity utilization rate of domestic tire enterprises fluctuated slightly last week. The snow - tire orders of semi - steel tires in the domestic market are in the concentrated production period, which still supports the overall operation, while the demand in the replacement market of all - steel tires has not improved significantly, and some enterprises face export pressure. The short - term capacity utilization rate of enterprises may decline slightly. [2] - The short - term price of the br2511 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 11390 - 11850. [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract of synthetic rubber is 11545 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 25 yuan/ton; the position volume is 51154, with a week - on - week decrease of 7496. [2] - The 10 - 11 spread of synthetic rubber is 15 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 5 yuan/ton; the total warehouse receipt quantity of butadiene rubber is 2670 tons, with a week - on - week increase of 100 tons. [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The mainstream prices of cis - butadiene rubber from different manufacturers all increased by 50 yuan/ton. [2] - The basis of synthetic rubber is 105 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 25 yuan/ton. [2] - The price of Brent crude oil is 69.31 dollars/barrel, with a week - on - week increase of 1.68 dollars/barrel; the price of WTI crude oil is 64.99 dollars/barrel, with a week - on - week increase of 1.58 dollars/barrel. [2] - The price of naphtha CFR Japan is 606 dollars/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 8.5 dollars/ton; the price of Northeast Asian ethylene is 840 dollars/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 5 dollars/ton. [2] - The intermediate price of butadiene CFR China is 1060 dollars/ton, with no change; the market price of butadiene in Shandong is 9315 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 85 yuan/ton. [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The weekly capacity of butadiene is 15.11 million tons/week, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.01 million tons/week; the capacity utilization rate is 66.78%, with a week - on - week decrease of 1.55 percentage points. [2] - The port inventory of butadiene is 23100 tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 2500 tons; the operating rate of Shandong local refineries' atmospheric and vacuum distillation units is 51.85%, with a week - on - week increase of 1.21 percentage points. [2] - The monthly output of cis - butadiene rubber is 13.57 million tons, with a month - on - month increase of 0.65 million tons; the weekly capacity utilization rate is 69.72%, with a week - on - week decrease of 3.76 percentage points. [2] - The weekly production profit of cis - butadiene rubber is - 658 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 149 yuan/ton. [2] - The social inventory of cis - butadiene rubber is 3.37 million tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.08 million tons; the manufacturer's inventory is 25900 tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 400 tons; the trader's inventory is 7820 tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 390 tons. [2] 3.4 Downstream Situation - The operating rate of domestic semi - steel tires is 73.66%, with a week - on - week increase of 0.2 percentage points; the operating rate of all - steel tires is 65.66%, with a week - on - week increase of 0.07 percentage points. [2] - The monthly output of all - steel tires is 13.03 million pieces, with a month - on - month increase of 280,000 pieces; the monthly output of semi - steel tires is 58.06 million pieces, with a month - on - month increase of 1.09 million pieces. [2] - The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong are 39.13 days, with a week - on - week increase of 0.3 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong are 46.02 days, with a week - on - week increase of 0.08 days. [2] 3.5 Industry News - As of September 24, the inventory of domestic cis - butadiene rubber sample enterprises was 32,300 tons, a decrease of 0.14 million tons from the previous period, a week - on - week decrease of 4.21%. [2] - As of September 18, the capacity utilization rate of Chinese semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 72.74%, a week - on - week increase of 0.13 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 6.92 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises was 66.36%, a week - on - week increase of 0.05 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 6.18 percentage points. [2] - In August 2025, the output of Chinese cis - butadiene rubber was 13.57 million tons, an increase of 0.65 million tons from the previous month, a month - on - month increase of 5.02% and a year - on - year increase of 30.73%. [2]

Report Information - Report Title: Synthetic Rubber Morning Report - Research Team: Energy and Chemicals Team of the Research Center - Date: September 24, 2025 1. Market Data Summary BR (Butadiene Rubber) - **Futures Market**: The closing price of the main contract on September 23 was 11,430, a daily decrease of 75 and a weekly decrease of 245. The open interest was 65,588, a daily decrease of 4,718 but a weekly increase of 1,372. The trading volume was 109,780, a daily increase of 13,914 and a weekly increase of 35,016 [3][13][23]. - **Spot Market**: The Shandong market price dropped to 11,500, a daily decrease of 50 and a weekly decrease of 200. The Chuanhua market price remained at 11,450, with no daily change but a weekly decrease of 100. The Qilu ex - factory price was 11,700, unchanged daily but down 200 weekly [3][13][23]. - **Processing and Trade**: The spot processing profit was - 237, with a weekly decrease of 47. The import profit was - 83,069, a daily decrease of 62 but a weekly increase of 1,407. The export profit was 19, a daily decrease of 133 and a weekly decrease of 4 [3][13][23]. BD (Butadiene) - **Spot Market**: The Shandong market price was 9,350, a daily decrease of 50 and a weekly decrease of 150. The Jiangsu market price was 9,150, also down 50 daily and 150 weekly. The Yangzi ex - factory price was 9,150, unchanged daily but down 100 weekly [3][13][23]. - **Processing and Trade**: The butene oxidative dehydrogenation profit was 336, a daily increase of 140 and a weekly increase of 200. The import profit was 478, a daily decrease of 51 but a weekly increase of 91. The export profit was - 996, a daily decrease of 98 and a weekly decrease of 47 [3][13][23]. Downstream Products - The SBS production profit (791 - H) was 985, unchanged daily but up 160 weekly. The ABS production profit data was not available [3][13][23]. Price Spreads - **Inter - variety Spreads**: The RU - BR spread was - 50,063, a daily increase of 4,628 but a weekly decrease of 1,887. The NR - BR spread was - 53,193, a daily increase of 4,688 and a weekly decrease of 1,692. The Thai mixed - butadiene rubber spread was 3,280, a daily decrease of 20 and a weekly decrease of 170 [3][13][23]. - **Intra - variety Spreads**: The butadiene rubber standard - non - standard price spread was 100, a daily decrease of 50 and a weekly decrease of 50. The styrene - butadiene rubber 1502 - 1712 spread was 1,000, with no daily or weekly change [3][13][23]. 2. Core Viewpoints The report provides a comprehensive overview of the synthetic rubber market, including futures and spot prices, processing profits, import and export profits, and price spreads of BR, BD, and their downstream products. It shows the dynamic changes in the market over a week, which can help investors understand the market trends and potential investment opportunities in the synthetic rubber industry.

Report Information - Report Title: Synthetic Rubber Morning Report [2] - Research Team: Energy and Chemicals Team of the Research Center [2] - Report Date: September 24, 2025 [2] Core Data Analysis BR (Butadiene Rubber) - **Price and Volume**: On September 23, the closing price of the main contract was 11,430, down 75 from the previous day and 245 from the previous week; the trading volume was 109,780, up 13,914 from the previous day and 35,016 from the previous week; the open interest was 65,588, down 4,718 from the previous day but up 1,372 from the previous week; the warrant quantity was 9,190, unchanged from the previous day and down 4,440 from the previous week [3]. - **Basis and Spread**: The basis of cis - butadiene rubber increased by 25 from the previous day and 45 from the previous week; the 8 - 9 spread decreased by 135 from the previous day and 120 from the previous week, while the 9 - 10 spread increased by 15 from the previous day and 135 from the previous week [3]. - **Market Price**: The Shandong market price was 11,500, down 50 from the previous day and 200 from the previous week; the Transfar market price was 11,450, unchanged from the previous day and down 100 from the previous week; the Qilu ex - factory price was 11,700, unchanged from the previous day and down 200 from the previous week [3]. - **Processing and Import/Export Profits**: The spot processing profit was - 237, with a weekly decrease of 47; the futures processing profit was - 307, down 24 from the previous day and 92 from the previous week; the import profit was - 83,069, down 62 from the previous day but up 1,407 from the previous week; the export profit was 19, down 133 from the previous day and 4 from the previous week [3]. BD (Butadiene) - **Market Price**: The Shandong market price was 9,350, down 50 from the previous day and 150 from the previous week; the Jiangsu market price was 9,150, down 50 from the previous day and 150 from the previous week; the Yangzi ex - factory price was 9,150, unchanged from the previous day and down 100 from the previous week; the CFR China price was 1,060, unchanged from the previous day and down 30 from the previous week [3]. - **Processing and Import/Export Profits**: The carbon - four extraction profit was not available; the butylene oxidative dehydrogenation profit was 336, up 140 from the previous day and 200 from the previous week; the import profit was 447, down 51 from the previous day but up 91 from the previous week; the export profit was - 996, down 98 from the previous day and 47 from the previous week [3]. Downstream Products - **Production Profits**: The butadiene - styrene production profit was 1,063, unchanged from the previous day and down 50 from the previous week; the SBS 791 - H production profit was 882, unchanged from the previous day and up 160 from the previous week; the ABS production profit was not available [3]. Inter - and Intra - Product Spreads - **Inter - Product Spreads**: The RU - BR spread was - 50,063, up 4,628 from the previous day and down 1,887 from the previous week; the NR - BR spread was - 53,193, up 4,688 from the previous day and down 1,692 from the previous week; the Thai mixed - cis - butadiene spread was 3,280, down 20 from the previous day and 170 from the previous week; the 3L - butadiene - styrene spread was 3,100, unchanged from the previous day and up 50 from the previous week [3]. - **Intra - Product Spreads**: The butadiene - styrene 1502 - 1712 spread was 1,000, unchanged from the previous day and the previous week; the cis - butadiene standard - non - standard spread was 100, down 50 from the previous day and the previous week [3].

Report Overview - Report Date: September 23, 2025 [1] - Report Type: Synthetic Rubber Industry Daily Report - Researcher: Lin Jingyi - Futures Practice Qualification Number: F03139610 - Futures Investment Consulting Practice Certificate Number: Z0021558 Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The overall supply of domestic cis - butadiene rubber is sufficient, and the negotiation focus on the spot side is under continuous pressure. However, due to the pre - holiday stocking demand of downstream enterprises, the inventory level is expected to continue to decline [2]. - The capacity utilization rate of domestic tire enterprises fluctuated slightly last week. The semi - steel tire market has some support for overall production, while the all - steel tire market has no obvious improvement in demand and some enterprises face export pressure. The short - term capacity utilization rate of enterprises may be slightly reduced [2]. - The short - term forecast for the br2511 contract is to fluctuate in the range of 11,250 - 11,700 [2]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Data Futures Market - The closing price of the main synthetic rubber contract was 11,430 yuan/ton, a decrease of 75 yuan/ton; the position volume was 65,588, a decrease of 4,718 [2]. - The synthetic rubber 10 - 11 spread was 50 yuan/ton, a decrease of 15 yuan/ton; the total warehouse receipt quantity of butadiene rubber was 2,610 tons, unchanged [2]. Spot Market - The mainstream price of cis - butadiene rubber (BR9000) from different manufacturers had some fluctuations. For example, the price from Qilu Petrochemical in Shandong was 11,600 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price from Daqing Petrochemical in Shandong was 11,550 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan/ton [2]. - The basis of synthetic rubber was 95 yuan/ton, a decrease of 110 yuan/ton [2]. - The price of Brent crude oil was 66.57 dollars/barrel, a decrease of 0.11 dollars/barrel; the price of WTI crude oil was 62.28 dollars/barrel, a decrease of 0.4 dollars/barrel [2]. - The price of Northeast Asian ethylene was 845 dollars/ton, unchanged; the price of CFR China butadiene was 1,060 dollars/ton, unchanged; the price of CFR Japan naphtha was 595.63 dollars/ton, a decrease of 1.12 dollars/ton; the market price of butadiene in Shandong was 9,400 yuan/ton, a decrease of 100 yuan/ton [2]. 2. Upstream Situation - The weekly capacity of butadiene was 15.11 million tons/week, a decrease of 0.01 million tons/week; the capacity utilization rate was 66.78%, a decrease of 1.55 percentage points [2]. - The port inventory of butadiene was 23,100 tons, a decrease of 2,500 tons; the operating rate of Shandong local refinery atmospheric and vacuum distillation was 51.85%, an increase of 1.21 percentage points [2]. - The monthly output of cis - butadiene rubber was 13.57 million tons, an increase of 0.65 million tons; the weekly capacity utilization rate was 69.72%, a decrease of 3.76 percentage points [2]. - The weekly production profit of cis - butadiene rubber was - 658 yuan/ton, a decrease of 149 yuan/ton; the social inventory was 3.37 million tons, a decrease of 0.08 million tons [2]. - The manufacturer's inventory of cis - butadiene rubber was 25,900 tons, a decrease of 400 tons; the trader's inventory was 7,820 tons, a decrease of 390 tons [2]. 3. Downstream Situation - The operating rate of domestic semi - steel tires was 73.66%, an increase of 0.2 percentage points; the operating rate of all - steel tires was 65.66%, an increase of 0.07 percentage points [2]. - The monthly output of all - steel tires was 13.03 million pieces, an increase of 280,000 pieces; the monthly output of semi - steel tires was 58.06 million pieces, an increase of 1.09 million pieces [2]. - The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong were 39.13 days, an increase of 0.3 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong were 46.02 days, an increase of 0.08 days [2]. 4. Industry News - As of September 18, the inventory of domestic cis - butadiene rubber sample enterprises was 3.37 million tons, a decrease of 0.08 million tons from the previous period, a month - on - month decrease of 2.29% [2]. - As of September 18, the capacity utilization rate of Chinese semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 72.74%, a month - on - month increase of 0.13 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 6.92 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises was 66.36%, a month - on - month increase of 0.05 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 6.18 percentage points [2]. - In August 2025, the output of Chinese cis - butadiene rubber was 13.57 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.65 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 5.02% and a year - on - year increase of 30.73% [2]. 5. Key Points of Attention - No news today [2]

Industry Investment Ratings No investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - After the Fed cut interest rates by 25bp as expected, the market quickly digested the expectation and shifted to a volatile state. The technology sector still dominates the market. With the holiday approaching, capital activity has declined [2]. - Without incremental negative factors, 1.8% may be the high point for the 10 - year Treasury yield, but in the absence of strong positive factors, the short - term downward movement of the yield is also limited, with resistance around 1.75% [2]. - Gold remains in a high - level volatile state, and its volatility may rise again. Silver has high upward elasticity driven by突发事件 but the sentiment fades quickly [2]. - The EC futures contract continues to decline, and the main contract is weakly volatile [2]. - Steel exports support the valuation of the black commodity sector, and the spread between hot - rolled and rebar contracts is narrowing [2]. - The decline in iron ore shipments, the rebound in molten iron production, and the restocking demand support the strong price of iron ore [2]. - Coal prices at production areas are stable with a slight upward trend, and downstream restocking demand supports the upward trend of coal futures [2]. - The copper market is in a volatile consolidation phase, and the spot trading volume is good below 80,000 [2]. - There are more supply - side disturbances in Guinea for aluminum, and it is expected to fluctuate widely around the bottom of 2900 in the short term [2]. - The supply of tin ore imports remained low in August, providing fundamental support [2]. - Concerns about marginal increases in oil supply have led to a downward shift in short - term oil prices, but geopolitical factors still provide some support [2]. - The high supply pressure of urea persists, and the progress of urea factory orders before the National Day needs attention [2]. - The supply - demand outlook for PX has further weakened, and the cost side is also weak, putting short - term pressure on prices [2]. - The supply - demand situation of PTA has improved slightly but remains weak in the medium term, with limited driving forces [2]. - The short - fiber market has no obvious short - term drivers and follows the raw material price fluctuations [2]. - The demand for bottle - grade polyester chips has improved temporarily, but the supply - demand pattern remains loose, with limited upside for processing fees [2]. - The new ethylene glycol plant commissioning expectation and the weak terminal market put pressure on the upside of MEG [2]. - With the holiday approaching, the mid - stream of caustic soda is in a wait - and - see mode, and the spot price is under pressure [2]. - The spot procurement enthusiasm for PVC is average, and the market is in a volatile state [2]. - The supply - demand outlook for pure benzene has weakened, and the price driving force is limited [2]. - The weak oil price expectation puts pressure on the absolute price of styrene [2]. - The cost and supply - demand drivers for synthetic rubber are limited, and it may follow the trends of natural rubber and other commodities [2]. - The sentiment in the LLDPE spot market has weakened, and the basis remains stable [2]. - The number of PP plant overhauls has increased, and the trading volume is average [2]. - The port inventory of methanol has been accumulating, and the price is weak [2]. - After Argentina取消 the export tax, the two -粕 market is under pressure again [2]. - The pig slaughter pressure is high, and the spot price is unlikely to improve before the National Day [2]. - Under the bearish expectation, the corn futures price continues to decline [2]. - The Sino - US talks did not release incremental positive factors, and the oilseed market is in a volatile adjustment phase [2]. - The overseas sugar supply outlook is broad [2]. - With new cotton gradually coming onto the market, the supply pressure is increasing [2]. - The local domestic sales in the egg market still provide some support for demand, but the long - term trend is bearish [2]. - The early Fuji apples are traded at negotiated prices, and the sales volume is acceptable [2]. - The spot price of red dates fluctuates slightly, and the futures market is in a volatile state [2]. - The overall sentiment in the soda ash market has declined, and the price is trending weakly [2]. - The production and sales of glass have weakened, and the futures price has declined [2]. - Affected by typhoon weather, the rubber price is strongly volatile in the short term [2]. - The market sentiment for industrial silicon has weakened, and the price has declined [2]. - Affected by fundamental sentiment, the polysilicon price has dropped significantly [2]. - With no new news, the market sentiment for lithium carbonate is temporarily stable, and the fundamentals are in a tight balance during the peak season [2]. Summaries by Categories Equity Index Futures - Recommend selling short - term put options on the IF2509, IH2509, IC2509, and MO2511 contracts near the strike price of 6600 when the index pulls back to collect option premiums [2]. Treasury Futures - The T2512 contract is expected to fluctuate between 107.5 and 108.35. For single - side strategies, investors are advised to trade within the range, and consider going long lightly when the price pulls back to the low level if the market sentiment stabilizes, but should pay attention to taking profits in time. For the spot - futures strategy, the basis of the TL contract is oscillating at a high level, and investors can appropriately participate in the basis narrowing strategy [2]. Precious Metals - For gold, consider buying at low levels or buying out - of - the - money call options instead of going long. For silver, sell out - of - the - money put options when the price is high [2]. Freight Index Futures (EC) - Consider the spread arbitrage between the December and October contracts [2]. Black Commodities - For steel, try to go long on pullbacks and narrow the spread between the January hot - rolled and rebar contracts. For iron ore, go long on the 2601 contract at low levels, with the reference range of 780 - 850, and consider a long - iron - ore short - hot - rolled strategy. For coking coal, go long on the 2601 contract at low levels, with the reference range of 1150 - 1300, and consider a long - coking - coal short - coke strategy. For coke, go long on the 2601 contract at low levels, with the reference range of 1650 - 1800, and consider a long - coking - coal short - coke strategy [2]. Non - ferrous Metals - For copper, the main contract reference range is 79,000 - 81,000. For aluminum, the main contract reference range is 20,600 - 21,000. For aluminum alloy, the main contract reference range is 20,200 - 20,600. For zinc, the main contract reference range is 21,500 - 22,500 [2][3]. Energy and Chemicals - For crude oil, temporarily observe on the single - side, with the support range of WTI at [60, 61], Brent at [63, 64], and SC at [467, 474]. For urea, wait for the implied volatility to rise and then narrow it. For PX, short on rebounds following the crude oil trend and pay attention to the support around 6500. For PTA, short on rebounds following the crude oil trend, pay attention to the support around 4500, and consider a rolling reverse spread strategy between the January and May contracts. For short - fiber, the single - side strategy is the same as PTA, and the processing fee oscillates between 800 - 1100. For bottle - grade polyester chips, the single - side strategy is the same as PTA, and the processing fee is expected to fluctuate between 350 - 500. For ethylene glycol, sell call options on rallies and consider a reverse spread strategy between the January and May contracts. For caustic soda, adopt a short - selling strategy. For PVC, observe. For pure benzene, it will follow the benzene - ethylene and oil price fluctuations in the short term. For benzene - ethylene, short on absolute price rebounds and widen the spread between the November benzene - ethylene and November pure - benzene contracts. For synthetic rubber, pay attention to the support around 11,400. For LLDPE, observe near the previous low. For PP, observe in the short term. For methanol, observe as the downward space is currently limited [2]. Agricultural Products - For soybeans and rapeseed meal, adjust weakly in the short term. For live pigs, pay attention to the reverse spread opportunities between the January - May and March - July contracts. For corn, it is in a weak trend. For oils, the main palm oil contract adjusts weakly in the short term. For sugar, hold short positions. For cotton, adopt a short - selling strategy in the short term. For eggs, control the short - position size. For apples, the main contract runs around 8300. For red dates, it is bearish in the medium - to - long term. For soda ash, observe. For glass, observe. For rubber, observe. For industrial silicon, the main price fluctuation range is expected to be between 8000 - 9500 yuan/ton. For polysilicon, observe temporarily. For lithium carbonate, the main contract is expected to run between 70,000 - 75,000 [2].