新大正（002968） 2024 年报点评：实现全国化布局战略，稳步 提升股东回报 买入（维持） | [Table_EPS] 盈利预测与估值 | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入（百万元） | 3,127 | 3,387 | 3,655 | 3,907 | 4,110 | | 同比（%） | 20.35 | 8.32 | 7.90 | 6.90 | 5.20 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 160.13 | 113.78 | 122.56 | 133.23 | 143.57 | | 同比（%） | (13.83) | (28.95) | 7.72 | 8.71 | 7.76 | | EPS-最新摊薄（元/股） | 0.71 | 0.50 | 0.54 | 0.59 | 0.63 | | P/E（现价&最新摊薄） | 13.81 | 19.43 | 18.04 | 16.59 | 15.40 | [Table_Tag] [Table_Summary] 投资要点 2025 年 ...

证券研究报告 房地产 销售迎季节性调整 华泰研究 2025 年 5 月 06 日│中国内地 动态点评 销售迎季节性调整，关注实操政策落地情况 4 月，百强房企（公司可比口径）单月销售金额环比下降 14.8%，同比下降 14.6%，降幅较 3 月走阔 2.7 个百分点；1-4 月累计销售金额同比下降 10.1%， 增速较 1-3 月走阔 1.8 个百分点。从前瞻指标来看，4 月销售市场迎来季节 性调整，整体带看量与二手中介门店成交量环比均有所回落。进入二季度， 我们认为房地产行业增量政策窗口逐步打开，结合更加积极有为的宏观政策 以及更加积极的财政政策定调，我们认为后续需关注实操政策落地节奏。 TOP10 累计销售额门槛增幅明显，单月销售额同环比增长房企量减少 2025 年 1-4 月 TOP10、TOP20、TOP30、TOP50、TOP100 房企的销售金 额入榜门槛分别达 333、119、87、43、13 亿元，同比+10.9%、-16.1%、 +5.3%、-4.5%、-19.5%，其中 TOP10 门槛提升最为明显。百强房企 4 月 销售金额中 32 家环比增长，较 3 月减少 50 家，39 家同比增长 ...

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - In Q1, the company met the midpoint of its revenue guidance with total revenue of $161 million, reflecting an 8% decline quarter over quarter [17] - The net loss for the quarter was $15.1 million, a 14% improvement compared to the same period in 2024 [17] - Adjusted EBITDA loss for the first quarter was $7.8 million, a sequential improvement of 32% [19] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The Renovate business generated a record revenue of $5.3 million in Q1, with an annualized run rate of approximately $20 million, marking the highest quarterly total since its launch [6] - The cash offer business remains a key revenue driver, while asset-light services, including Renovate, Direct Plus, and the agent partnership program, contributed over 40% of contribution profit after interest [16][17] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Offer requests rose by 33% quarter over quarter, indicating increased consumer interest [9] - The average time to cash for homes sold in Q1 was 165 days, consistent with expectations following acquisition adjustments [17] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focusing on enhancing the customer experience through technology and operational improvements, aiming for positive adjusted EBITDA and sustainable long-term growth [6][13] - A new partnership with Auction.com was announced, positioning Renovate as a preferred provider of renovation services [6] - The company is prioritizing diversification through high-margin revenue streams and disciplined resource management [6][14] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management noted that the housing market is facing sustained macroeconomic pressures, including elevated mortgage rates and affordability challenges, impacting transaction volumes [7][8] - The company anticipates sequential improvements in time to cash and revenue in Q2, with guidance of $160 million to $190 million [20] Other Important Information - The company has made significant progress in reducing annual operating expenses by approximately $115 million over the past 24 months [19] - As of the end of Q1, unrestricted cash totaled $31 million, with total liquidity exceeding $60 million [19] Q&A Session Summary Question: Acquisition pace of homes and seasonal patterns - Management expects increased acquisition volumes in Q2, with a target of 1,000 homes per quarter as a North Star for profitability [27][46] Question: Stability of the current market environment - Management acknowledged market volatility but noted increased opportunities for acquisitions in select areas [33][41] Question: Financial impact of changes made in April - Management indicated that further details on cost reductions would be provided in the next quarter, with ongoing efforts to improve operational efficiency [32][34] Question: Supply-demand dynamics in key markets - Management observed rising inventory levels and emphasized a selective approach to acquisitions based on market conditions [40][41] Question: Contribution margin targets with increased acquisition volume - Management expects contribution margins to improve as more recent purchases are integrated into the portfolio [37]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - In Q1 2025, the company reported revenue of $161 million, which was in line with guidance, but represented an 8% decline quarter over quarter [16] - The net loss for the quarter was $15.1 million, showing a 14% improvement compared to the same period in 2024 [16] - Adjusted EBITDA loss for Q1 was $7.8 million, a sequential improvement of 32% [18] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The Renovate business generated a record revenue of $5.3 million in Q1, with an annualized run rate of approximately $20 million, marking the highest quarterly total since its launch [6] - The company sold 460 homes in Q1, a 9% decrease from the previous quarter, primarily due to a strategic reduction in acquisition pace [16] - Over 40% of contribution profit after interest came from asset-light services, indicating a growing importance of these services to overall profitability [16][50] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Offer requests rose by 33% quarter over quarter, indicating increased consumer interest despite market challenges [8] - The housing market is experiencing elevated mortgage rates and affordability challenges, leading to transaction volumes near historic lows [7] - Active inventory is increasing in most markets, with specific areas like Phoenix having over 25,000 active listings, highlighting a supply-demand imbalance [39] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focusing on diversifying revenue streams through high-margin services and streamlining operations to achieve positive adjusted EBITDA [6][14] - A new partnership with Auction.com aims to enhance the Renovate business by providing renovation services to buyers on their platform [6] - The company is committed to maintaining a disciplined approach to acquisitions while selectively ramping up volumes in stronger market segments [15][26] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management acknowledged sustained macroeconomic pressures affecting the housing market, including high borrowing costs and limited affordable inventory [7] - The company expects sequential improvements in time to cash and revenue as it moves through 2025, with a focus on increasing acquisition activity and maintaining disciplined cost management [19] - Management remains cautiously optimistic about capital market opportunities and is preparing restructuring plans in case new capital is not secured [19] Other Important Information - The company welcomed Donna Corley to its Board of Directors, bringing extensive housing finance experience [12] - The company has reduced annual operating expenses by approximately $115 million over the past 24 months, with ongoing efforts to identify further cost reductions [18] Q&A Session Summary Question: Acquisition pace of homes and seasonal patterns - Management expects increased acquisition volumes in Q2, with a target of 1,000 homes per quarter as a North Star for profitability [26][32] Question: Stability of the current market environment - Management indicated that while there is still volatility, they are seeing more opportunities to buy homes at acceptable risk metrics [32][34] Question: Contribution margin targets with increased acquisition volume - Management expects contribution margins to improve as they move into Q2, but did not provide specific guidance on percentages [36] Question: Supply-demand dynamics in key markets - Management noted an increase in active inventory and emphasized the need for selective purchasing in areas with strong transaction activity [39][40] Question: Impact of tariffs on renovation margins - Management reported no significant impact from tariffs on renovation margins at this time, maintaining a margin range of 20% to 30% [65]

2025年5月2日英国日更重点有：● 英国央行预计5、6月连续降息，应对全球经济不确定性● 全球最大资管公司贝莱德（BlackRock）全面投资英国资产● 英议会建议财政部储备现金，以应对网络攻击和停电风险● 英国NHS考虑在药店柜台销售减肥针● 伦敦萨顿计划吸纳10亿英镑，建设世界领先癌症研究中 心● 伦敦租金连续14个月创新高，白金汉郡通勤小镇房租全英最高● 英国房地产网站Zoopla被挂牌5亿英镑出售 英国央行预计5、6月连续降息，应对全球经济不确定性 路透社5月1日最新报道，据市场预测， 英国央行极大概率将在5月8日的货币政策会议上降息0.25个百分点，将基准利率从当前的4.25%下调至4.00%。 英媒指出，这一决定主要是由于美国总统特朗普的关税政策，加剧了全球经济增长的不确定性。英国央行行长贝利上周表示，他非常重视特朗普关税带来 的风险。 咨询公司Pantheon Macroeconomics的首席英国经济学家伍德表示，英国央行货币政策委员会可能会改变其"渐进且谨慎"的降息策略。 伍德预测，特朗普的关税政策将抑制经济增长，并略微加速通胀放缓，从而为更早、更大幅度的降息提供理由。 他预计英国央行将在 ...

Core Insights - Beike (BEKE) opened with a 3.43% increase, reaching $21.235 per share, with a total market capitalization of $25.636 billion as of May 2 [1] - For the fiscal year ending December 31, 2024, Beike reported total revenue of 93.457 billion RMB, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 20.16%, while net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 30.91% to 4.065 billion RMB [1] Group 1 - Beike is a leading integrated online and offline real estate transaction and service platform in China, focusing on enhancing service efficiency for consumers in second-hand and new housing transactions, rentals, home decoration, and other real estate services [2] - The company has established platform infrastructure and standards, aiming to reshape service provider operations and deepen interactions with platform participants for better service delivery [2] - Beike operates the well-known real estate brokerage brand, Lianjia, which is a crucial part of the Beike platform and has over 23 years of operational experience since its establishment in 2001 [2]

2024 年，优居集团迎来成立十周年的重要里程碑。作为从南宁本土茁壮成长起来的房地产互联网综合 服务平台，自 2015 年创立之初，优居便将 "客户第一" 的核心价值观深植于发展理念之中。历经十年的 不懈奋斗与精心耕耘，优居在房产服务这片领域持续深耕细作，成功从萌芽走向繁茂，逐步成长为行业 内极具影响力的领先经纪合作平台。 截止目前，旗下优居找房在线房源数量超过300万套，新房合作项目 10000个，且房源信息的展示极为 丰富，其中优质房源图片视频覆盖率超过89%，让用户能够更直观、细致地了解房屋的外观、格局等细 节；VR 覆盖率超过86%，借助先进的 VR 技术，用户仿若身临其境般置身屋内，360 度全方位感受房 屋的真实空间与氛围，这一数据稳居行业首位。其中线上签约率超 50%，跨店成交占比达70%。2024 年，优居找房的单量提升 60%，APP下载量 100万 次。私域分享更是达2000万次，资金安全划拨完成收 款交易50万 笔以上。 优居找房在技术创新与产业变革中前行。在数智化变革的当下，AI 的出现正成为改变行业格局的关键 力量。在南宁，刚经历二手房交易的老张对此深有体会："过去中介带看像开盲盒， ...

Core Insights - The "first release economy" is emerging as a new engine for consumption in major cities, with the "first store economy" being a direct way to observe its development [1][3] - Chengdu aims to establish 6,500 first stores, host 1,000 high-profile premieres and exhibitions, and cultivate 100 landmark first release venues by 2027 [3] - The launch of the "Chengdu First Release Economic Development Three-Year Action Plan" outlines specific targets and collaborative efforts with educational institutions to promote this economy [3][4] Group 1 - The Chengdu Jinjiang District has established the first national promotion center for the first release economy and is collaborating with universities to create a research institute [3] - The Jinjiang District aims for "over 100 first stores and revenue exceeding 100 billion" by 2025, with a goal for the first release economy to contribute 5% to the total retail sales of social consumer goods [3][4] - The "Jinjiang District First Release Economic Industry Ecosystem" was released, focusing on a three-layer structure of "front-end research, release display, and transformation landing" [3][6] Group 2 - The first batch of benchmark first release venues includes COSMO, which will integrate national trends with brand acceleration, and Tianfu Red, focusing on original incubation in the national comic theme [4] - A seminar on the integration of the first release economy and cultural industries was held, with industry representatives sharing insights [6] - The Jinjiang District has released a list of nine integrated scenarios, creating a comprehensive first release matrix that combines online and offline experiences [6]

我爱我家今日跌停，全天换手率19.05%，成交额14.50亿元，振幅7.25%。龙虎榜数据显示，机构净买入 1743.40万元，深股通净买入1518.89万元，营业部席位合计净卖出5561.35万元。 深交所公开信息显示，当日该股因日跌幅偏离值达-9.06%上榜，机构专用席位净买入1743.40万元，深 股通净买入1518.89万元。 证券时报·数据宝统计显示，上榜的前五大买卖营业部合计成交3.82亿元，其中，买入成交额为1.79亿 元，卖出成交额为2.02亿元，合计净卖出2299.06万元。 具体来看，今日上榜的营业部中，共有1家机构专用席位现身，即买五，买入金额1979.54万元，卖出金 额236.14万元，合计净买入1743.40万元，深股通为第二大买入营业部及第五大卖出营业部，买入金额为 4211.26万元，卖出金额为2692.36万元，合计净买入1518.89万元。 资金流向方面，今日该股主力资金净流出2.37亿元，其中，特大单净流出2.18亿元，大单资金净流出 1889.30万元。近5日主力资金净流入3940.76万元。 融资融券数据显示，该股最新（4月25日）两融余额为4.65亿元，其中，融资余 ...