鸡蛋产业日报 2025-09-25 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为 瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 期货收盘价(活跃合约):鸡蛋(日,元/500千 20 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:鸡蛋(日,手) | 3076 | -7285 | -4594 | | 期货市场 | | | | | | | 克) 鸡蛋期货月间价差(1-5):(日,元/500千克) 21 期货持仓量(活跃合约):鸡蛋(日,手) | -17 | 346279 | -16242 | | | 注册仓单量:鸡蛋(日,手) 26 | 26 | | | | 现货市 ...

季度报告-鸡蛋 淘鸡与新增开产之争 | [T走ab势le_评R级an：k] | | --- | | 报告日期： | ★[Ta回ble溯_S：um季m节ar性y]行情出逃与回归 农 产 在经历超长盈利周期后，2025 年鸡蛋市场正面临严峻的来自供应 端的压力，而伴随产能释放的同时，传统双节前消费并未能如预期 那样顺畅的兑现在 8、9 合约的定价上。旺季前夕，现货价格甚至 一度创下年内最低水平，空头持仓集中。近期临近 10 月交割，跟 随备货展开，现货价格强势反弹，同时北方部分资本蛋囤积带动价 格一时难跌。盘面出现"低估值+高基差+限仓"带来的超涨行情， 价差结构由反套向正套切换。季节性行情看似回归，多空矛盾巨大， 但就周期而言，我们更倾向于节前现货的上涨行情是一类阶段性反 弹而非反转。 品 ★ 基本面：需求萎靡，供应压力难言大幅改善 我们针对在产蛋鸡存栏作相应预测，根据模型假设，四季度在产蛋 鸡存栏理论变化仍呈现增势，但在第二种超淘逻辑下，存栏压力或 给出阶段性缓解的可能性。这里或因模型本身问题缺乏深度严谨 性，回到基本面判断的主观逻辑来看，我们倾向于给出四季度供应 压力难言大幅缓解的结论：一方面，鸡龄结构已来 ...

Group 1: Report Overview - The report is an egg daily report released on September 23, 2025, by researcher Liu Qiannan [2] Group 2: Market Data Futures Market - JD01 closed at 3362, down 4 from the previous day; JD05 closed at 3395, down 37; JD09 closed at 3120, down 73 [3] - The 01 - 05 spread was -33, up 33; the 05 - 09 spread was 275, up 36; the 09 - 01 spread was -242, down 69 [3] - The 01 egg/corn ratio was 1.58, unchanged; the 01 egg/bean meal ratio was 1.15, up 0.04 [3] Spot Market - The average price in the main production areas was 3.67 yuan/jin, unchanged; the average price in the main sales areas was 3.75 yuan/jin, unchanged [3] - The average price of eliminated chickens was 4.55 yuan/jin, unchanged [3] Profit Calculation - The profit per chicken was 30.54 yuan, down 0.36 from the previous day [3] - The average price of chicken seedlings was 3.21 yuan, up 0.04 [3] - The average price of corn was 2358 yuan, down 2; the average price of bean meal was 3038 yuan, up 26 [3] Group 3: Fundamental Information - The average price in the main production areas was 3.67 yuan/jin, up 0.16 from the previous day; the average price in the main sales areas was 3.81 yuan/jin, up 0.23 [6] - In August, the national laying hen inventory was 1.365 billion, an increase of 90 million from the previous month and 5.9% year - on - year [7] - In August, the monthly chick output of sample enterprises was 39.81 million, a decrease of 0.1% month - on - month and 8% year - on - year [7] - From September to December 2025, the estimated laying hen inventory is 1.363 billion, 1.356 billion, 1.356 billion, and 1.352 billion respectively [7] - From September 11 - 18, the national main production area's eliminated chicken出栏量 was 17.61 million, a decrease of 6% from the previous week [7] - As of September 18, the average age of eliminated chickens was 497 days, an increase of 2 days from the previous week [7] - As of September 18, the egg sales volume in representative sales areas was 7685 tons, an increase of 5.2% from the previous week [8] - As of September 18, the average weekly inventory in the production link was 0.91 days, a decrease of 0.02 days; the average weekly inventory in the circulation link was 0.99 days, a decrease of 0.04 days [8] - As of September 18, the average weekly profit per jin of eggs was 0.45 yuan/jin, an increase of 0.3 yuan/jin; the expected profit of laying hen farming was 2.97 yuan/chicken, a decrease of 0.03 yuan/jin [8] Group 4: Trading Logic - High inventory, low cost, and weak demand have led egg prices to the lowest level in recent years [9] - The recent egg price rebound is mainly due to the double - festival stocking, but as the stocking ends, egg prices are starting to fall [9] Group 5: Trading Strategies - Unilateral: The short - term downward space may be limited, and it is recommended to choose the right opportunity [10] - Arbitrage: It is recommended to wait and see [10] - Options: It is recommended to wait and see [10]

消息面 华联期货： 旺季备货行情接近尾声，食品企业及终端商超等环节拿货量逐渐减少，叠加冷库出库冲击市场，贸易流 通环节恐跌心态显现，产区出货受阻，市场交易氛围减弱。养殖端对后市蛋价看空心态增加，淘汰鸡出 栏节奏明显加快。加之当前供应量涨至近五年最高水平，产蛋率恢复，新开产蛋鸡及上高峰蛋鸡仍在增 加，产能过剩格局难改。主力合约低位宽幅震荡，参考运行区间2900~3200，期权方面，可卖出虚值看 涨期权。 五矿期货： 现货仍有回落预期，盘面近月走势偏弱，远月在供需边际改善预期以及资金博弈下相对走强；供应端看 基础产能依旧偏大，但随着补栏减少和淘鸡的增多，边际上存在改善的空间，需求端有较多不确定因 素，一方面低价刺激消费，另一方面双节导致的需求后置、降温导致的季节性囤货需求也增加了后市的 想象空间，考虑前期资金博弈下空头预期兑现较为充分，当前盘面升水不合理的情况已明显改善，建议 短期观望为主，后市更多关注远月回落后的买入。 截至9月18日的前三周，全国的淘鸡量分别是1761万只、1748万只和1789万只，从趋势上来看，淘汰量 在8月后逐步抬头，上升幅度高于季节性的平均水平，当前绝对值略高于前三年的平均水平。 今日 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The current laying hen inventory is at a high level, and the pressure of newly - opened laying hens from previous replenishments is large, resulting in sufficient egg supply. The decrease in temperature has increased the laying rate of hens, further exacerbating the supply pressure. However, due to pre - Mid - Autumn Festival and National Day stocking, the recent purchase volume of traders has increased, and the market demand has shown signs of recovery, which has supported the egg price and the futures price. But the high - capacity pressure still exists and restricts the futures price. It is recommended to conduct short - term, fast - in - and - fast - out trading and pay attention to the culling volume of old hens [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - on - Week Summary - **Market Review**: This week, the egg futures fluctuated and closed higher. The closing price of the 2511 contract was 3112 yuan/500 kilograms, an increase of 72 yuan/500 kilograms compared with the previous week [6]. - **Market Outlook**: High egg supply due to high inventory and increased laying rate; demand recovery due to festival stocking; futures price supported by spot price but restricted by high - capacity pressure [6]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Short - term fast - in - and - fast - out trading, and pay attention to the culling volume of old hens [6]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **Futures Price and Position**: The egg futures 11 contract fluctuated and closed higher, with a position of 398,055 lots, a decrease of 11,258 lots compared with the previous week. The net position of the top 20 was - 18,354, and the net short position decreased slightly compared with last week [13]. - **Futures Warehouse Receipt**: As of Friday, the number of registered egg warehouse receipts was 0 [17]. - **Spot Price and Basis**: The egg spot price was 3746 yuan/500 kilograms, an increase of 153 yuan/500 kilograms compared with the previous week. The basis between the active 11 - contract futures price and the spot average price was 634 yuan/ton [23]. - **Futures Inter - month Spread**: The 11 - 1 spread of eggs was - 306 yuan/500 kilograms, which was at a relatively low level in the same period [27]. - **Related Spot Prices**: As of September 18, 2025, the average wholesale price of pork was 19.55 yuan/kg, and the average wholesale price of 28 kinds of monitored vegetables was 4.98 yuan/kg [33]. 3.3 Industry Chain - **Supply Side - Inventory and Replenishment**: As of July 31, 2025, the national laying hen inventory index was 113.18, a month - on - month increase of 1.13%; the national new - chick index was 78.4, a month - on - month increase of 3.06% [39]. - **Supply Side - Culling Index and Age**: As of July 31, 2025, the national culled laying hen index was 99.2, a month - on - month decrease of 4.70%; the national culling age was 512 days [44]. - **Feed Raw Material Prices**: As of September 18, 2025, the average spot price of corn was 2360.59 yuan/ton, and the spot price of soybean meal in Fangcheng was 2950 yuan/ton [48]. - **Feed Price and Breeding Profit**: As of September 12, 2025, the egg - laying hen breeding profit was - 0.02 yuan/hen, and the average price of egg - laying hen compound feed was 2.76 yuan/kg [55]. - **Prices of Laying Hen Chicks and Culled Hens**: As of September 12, 2025, the average price of laying hen chicks in the main producing areas was 2.6 yuan/chick, and the average price of culled hens was 9.22 yuan/kg [59]. - **Egg Exports**: In May 2025, the total egg export volume was 12,711.37 tons, an increase of 927.30 tons compared with the same period last year (an increase of 7.87%), and a decrease of 81.14 tons compared with the previous month [64]. 3.4 Representative Company - **Xiaoming Co., Ltd.**: There is a chart of its price - to - earnings ratio change, but no specific analysis content is provided [66].

瑞达期货研究院 「2025.09.12」 鸡蛋市场周报 现货季节性回升 期货仍受制于高产能 研究员：许方莉 期货从业资格号F3073708 期货投资咨询从业证书号 Z0017638 目录 1、周度要点小结 2、期现市场 3、产业情况 「 周度要点小结」 总结及策略建议 3 来源：瑞达期货研究院 Ø 鸡蛋： Ø 行情回顾：本周鸡蛋窄幅震荡，2511合约收盘价为3040元/500千克，较前一周+36元/500千克。 Ø 行情展望：目前蛋鸡存栏量处于高位，前期补栏的蛋鸡新开产压力较大，鸡蛋供应比较充足。且 温度降低，蛋鸡产蛋率回升，进一步加重了供应压力。同时，尽管中秋备货及学校陆续开学，鸡 蛋消费需求略有回升，但同比仍显疲软，现货价格持续运行于近年同期最低位。不过，蛋价表现 持续不及预期，养殖端持续亏损或推动老鸡淘汰进程加快以及降低补栏积极性，关注近期老鸡淘 汰情况。盘面来看，在现货价格季节性回升提振下，近日空头有获利平仓迹象，推动期价也低位 反弹。但高产能压力仍存，持续对盘面有所牵制。 Ø 策略建议：短期以快进快出为主，关注老鸡淘汰量。 联系电话：0595-86778969 关 注 我 们 获 取 更 多 资 讯 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent rebound in egg prices is driven by factors such as oversold market conditions, seasonal stocking demand, and the exit of short-sellers, despite ongoing supply pressures from the egg-laying hen industry [1][2][3] Market Performance - As of September 5, the main egg futures contract closed at 2964 yuan per 500 kg, reflecting a nearly 2% increase from the low point on September 2 [1][2] - The average price of eggs in China's agricultural wholesale market was 7.73 yuan per kg on September 5, up 1.84% from 7.59 yuan per kg on September 2 [2] Supply and Demand Dynamics - The egg market is experiencing a supply-demand tug-of-war, with seasonal demand typically peaking in the third quarter, but this year has seen a lack of price increase during the traditional peak season [3][4] - The number of old hens being culled is expected to increase in September, as many producers plan to eliminate older hens ahead of the Mid-Autumn Festival [4][7] Profitability and Production Trends - The prolonged low prices of eggs have led to significant losses for egg producers, with losses nearing 0.30 yuan per kg during July and August [6] - The industry is witnessing a shift towards selective culling of hens due to poor profitability, with expectations that the overall production capacity will gradually decrease [6][7] Future Outlook - There is a potential for slight price increases in September due to pre-holiday stocking by food manufacturers and increased demand from school cafeterias [7] - However, the overall rebound in egg prices may be limited due to high production capacity, with average prices expected to remain below historical levels, fluctuating between 3.1 yuan and 3.2 yuan per jin [7]

Core Viewpoint - The recent recovery in the egg futures and spot market is driven by factors such as oversold conditions, seasonal stocking demand, and the exit of short-sellers, although supply pressure remains significant due to ongoing losses in egg production [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - As of September 5, the main egg futures contract closed at 2964 yuan per 500 kg, reflecting a nearly 2% increase from the low point on September 2 [1]. - The average price of eggs in China's agricultural wholesale market was 7.73 yuan per kg on September 5, up 1.84% from 7.59 yuan per kg on September 2 [2]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The egg market is experiencing a complex supply-demand dynamic, with producers reluctant to cull older hens due to ongoing losses, which keeps supply pressure high [1][3]. - Seasonal demand typically peaks in the third quarter, but this year, the market has not seen the expected price increases during this period due to various factors, including high temperatures affecting egg quality [4]. Group 3: Production Insights - The number of hens being culled has been limited, with producers maintaining a cautious approach, although there is an expectation that culling will increase as the Mid-Autumn Festival approaches [3][6]. - The egg production cycle indicates that the number of hens entering the culling phase in September will increase, potentially leading to a gradual reduction in production capacity [3][6]. Group 4: Profitability and Market Sentiment - The prolonged low prices have resulted in significant losses for egg producers, with losses nearing 0.30 yuan per kg during July and August [4][5]. - The market sentiment is shifting from a focus on maintaining production to selective capacity reduction, as producers face ongoing financial pressures [5][6]. Group 5: Future Outlook - There is a potential for slight price increases in September due to pre-festival stocking and increased demand from schools, although overall price recovery may be limited by high production capacity [6]. - The egg market is expected to see a gradual decline in inventory levels post-third quarter, but the pace of this decline may be slow [6].

Core Viewpoint - Recent fluctuations in egg futures have shown signs of a rebound after significant declines, with trading volumes reaching historical highs and a notable increase in short-covering activity [3][4][10]. Group 1: Market Trends - On September 2, egg futures hit a low of 2907 yuan per 500 kg before closing at 2959 yuan, followed by a rise to 3011 yuan on September 3, marking a 2.62% increase [3]. - The egg futures index has surpassed 1 million contracts, indicating a historical peak in open interest, with significant divergence between bulls and bears [3][10]. - The 2510 contract's open interest has decreased for three consecutive days, while the 2511 contract has seen an increase in long positions [4]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Seasonal demand has slightly increased due to school openings and the upcoming Mid-Autumn Festival, but supply pressures remain high, limiting the potential for significant price increases [4][5]. - The circulation speed of eggs has improved, with inventory days decreasing from 0.89 days in August to 0.73 days in early September [5]. - Despite the seasonal uptick in demand, the overall supply remains robust, with a high production rate expected as the heat stress on laying hens subsides [5][11]. Group 3: Producer Sentiment - Producers are showing decreased enthusiasm for restocking due to prolonged losses, with a notable decline in the number of hens being replaced [6][8]. - The age of culled hens has decreased from approximately 540 days to 500 days, indicating a shift in producer behavior in response to market conditions [8]. - The current cash breeding cost is around 2.8 to 2.9 yuan per jin, while egg prices are fluctuating around 3.0 yuan per jin, leading to financial strain on producers [9]. Group 4: Price Outlook - The egg market is expected to experience wide fluctuations at the bottom, with current prices being relatively undervalued, but no significant improvement in fundamentals is anticipated [10]. - The potential for a rebound in prices exists, but it is likely to be limited due to the high production capacity and the anticipated increase in supply from newly produced hens [11].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The report suggests a bearish approach for egg investment. Currently, the egg market is facing abundant supply due to high egg - laying hen inventory, new - laid eggs from previously replenished hens, and continuous cold - storage egg outflows. At the same time, terminal demand is weak, the high - temperature weather makes the market cautious, and breeding enterprises are more willing to sell at low prices to reduce inventory. The industrial capacity reduction is slow, which may continue to restrict egg prices during the school - opening and Mid - Autumn Festival stocking seasons. The futures price generally maintains a weak trend under the pressure of weak spot prices and high production capacity [6][7]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - on - Week Key Points Summary - **Strategy Recommendation**: Adopt a bearish approach [6]. - **Market Review**: This week, the egg price continued to decline. The closing price of the 2510 contract was 2939 yuan per 500 kilograms, a decrease of 96 yuan per 500 kilograms compared to the previous week [7]. - **Market Outlook**: High egg - laying hen inventory, new - laid eggs from previously replenished hens, and cold - storage egg outflows lead to sufficient supply. Weak terminal demand, high - temperature caution, and low - price sales by breeding enterprises result in lower - than - expected spot prices and continuous losses for the breeding side. Slow industrial capacity reduction may restrict egg prices during peak seasons. The futures price remains weak [7]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **Futures Price and Top 20 Positions**: The egg futures 10 - contract continued to decline, with a position of 493,762 lots, an increase of 59,481 lots from the previous week. The net position of the top 20 was - 42,469, with little change in net short positions [13]. - **Futures Warehouse Receipts**: As of Friday, the registered egg warehouse receipts were 0 [17]. - **Spot Price and Basis**: The egg spot price was 3116 yuan per 500 kilograms, an increase of 59 yuan per 500 kilograms from the previous week. The basis between the active 10 - contract futures price and the spot average price was 177 yuan per ton [23]. - **Futures Inter - month Spread**: The 10 - 1 spread of eggs was - 383 yuan per 500 kilograms, at a relatively low level in the same period [27]. - **Related Spot Prices**: As of August 28, 2025, the average wholesale price of pork was 19.94 yuan per kilogram, and the average wholesale price of 28 key - monitored vegetables was 4.94 yuan per kilogram [33]. 3.3 Industry Chain - **Supply - Side Indicators**: As of July 31, 2025, the national laying - hen inventory index was 113.18, a month - on - month increase of 1.13%. The national new - chick index was 78.4, a month - on - month increase of 3.06% [39]. - **Laying - Hen Culling Indicators**: As of July 31, 2025, the national laying - hen culling index was 99.2, a month - on - month decrease of 4.70%. The national culling age was 512 days [44]. - **Feed Raw Material Prices**: As of August 29, 2025, the average spot price of corn was 2364.71 yuan per ton [48]. - **Feed Prices and Breeding Profits**: As of August 22, 2025, the egg - laying hen breeding profit was - 0.15 yuan per hen, and the average price of egg - laying hen compound feed was 2.76 yuan per kilogram [54]. - **Egg - Laying Hen Chick and Culled - Hen Prices**: As of August 22, 2025, the average price of egg - laying hen chicks in the main production areas was 3.2 yuan per chick, and the average price of culled hens was 10.1 yuan per kilogram [60]. - **Egg Monthly Exports**: In May 2025, China's egg export volume was 12,711.37 tons, a year - on - year increase of 7.87% and a month - on - month decrease of 81.14 tons [64]. 3.4 Representative Enterprises - **Xiaoming Co., Ltd.**: The report shows the company's price - to - earnings ratio changes, but no specific analysis is provided [66].