交产业期现日报 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1292号 2025年6月26日 现货价格及基差 品种 6月25日 6月24日 涨跌 涨跌幅 单位 云南国营全乳胶(SCRWF):上海 13750 13850 -100 -0.72% 全乳基差(切换至2509合约) -20 185 -205 -110.81% 元/吨 泰标混合胶报价 13700 13600 100 0.74% 非标价差 -70 -୧୧ -5 -7.69% 杯胶:国际市场:FOB中间价 47.20 47.15 0.05 0.11% 泰铢/公斤 57.75 57.50 -0.25 -0.43% 胶水：国际市场：FOB中间价 天然橡胶:胶块:西双版纳州 12600 12600 0 0.00% 13200 天然橡胶:胶水:西双版纳州 13200 0 0.00% 元/吨 原料：市场主流价：海南 12400 12400 0.00% 0 外胶原料：市场主流价：海南 9000 9000 0.00 0.00% 月间价差 单位 合约 6月25日 6月24日 涨跌 涨跌幅 9-1价差 -850 -870 20 2.30% 1-5价差 -20 -5 -25 -25 ...

Core Viewpoint - The geopolitical conflict between Iran and Israel has led to significant volatility in crude oil-related products, while the soda ash market remains weak with an unfavorable outlook for the future [1] Macro Factors - The recent rise in crude oil prices does not impact soda ash costs, leaving soda ash unaffected by the upward trend in energy prices [1] - Financial and real estate data show no positive highlights, with national real estate development investment from January to May 2025 at 36,234 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 10.7%, and construction area at 625,020 thousand square meters, down 9.2% year-on-year [1] - The market's anticipated monetary and fiscal support has not materialized, leading to expectations of restrained future stimulus policies [1] Micro Factors - As of June 23, 2025, domestic soda ash manufacturers have a total inventory of 1.7559 million tons, an increase of 29,200 tons from the previous week, representing a 1.69% rise and an 84.19% increase year-on-year [1] - The weekly production of soda ash is expected to remain above 700,000 tons post-June, indicating significant supply pressure with limited maintenance support [1] - The photovoltaic glass industry is experiencing a reduction in production, negatively impacting the demand for soda ash, while the rebound in float glass prices is based on supply tightening expectations, which is also unfavorable for soda ash demand [1] Future Outlook - The fundamental outlook for soda ash remains weak, with no significant rebound or reversal expected in the short to medium term [1] - Attention should be paid to potential policy stimuli on the macro level and unplanned maintenance on the micro level; otherwise, the oversupply situation for soda ash is likely to continue [1] - It is suggested to monitor opportunities for hedging or arbitrage when soda ash futures prices rebound to the cost line of ammonia-soda enterprises [1]

Group 1 - The domestic soda ash market is experiencing weak fluctuations, with prices for light soda ash in North China ranging from 1270 to 1350 CNY/ton and heavy soda ash prices between 1280 to 1390 CNY/ton [2] - The overall operating rate in the industry remains high despite some companies having maintenance plans, while downstream demand is weak, leading to low purchasing willingness [2][6] - The market trading atmosphere is subdued, with new orders being generally average and mainly consisting of low-priced urgent small orders [2] Group 2 - As of June 23, the light soda ash price index is 1222.86, down 11.43 from the previous working day, a decrease of 0.93%, while the heavy soda ash price index is 1267.14, down 4.29, a decrease of 0.34% [3] - The main futures contract for soda ash opened at 1170 CNY/ton and closed at 1173 CNY/ton, with an intraday decline of 0.34% and total positions increasing by 16,673 contracts [5] - The current market sentiment is significantly suppressed by the fundamentals, with high operating rates and ongoing inventory accumulation highlighting supply-demand contradictions [5][6] Group 3 - The domestic soda ash market is characterized by an imbalance between supply and demand, driven by the release of new capacity and weak downstream demand, leading to historically high inventory levels [6] - Prices are expected to continue facing downward pressure due to high supply and lack of positive demand factors, with future attention needed on maintenance dynamics and changes in downstream demand [6]

| | | | | | 纯 碱 | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 2025/6/16 | 2025/6/20 | | 2025/6/23 周度变化 日度变化 | | | 2025/6/16 | 2025/6/20 | | 2025/6/23 周度变化 日度变化 | | | 沙河重碱 | 1210.0 | 1210.0 | 1210.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | SA05合 约 | 1206.0 | 1207.0 | 1206.0 | 0.0 | -1.0 | | 华中重碱 | 1170.0 | 1170.0 | 1170.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | SA01合约 | 1165.0 | 1162.0 | 1161.0 | -4.0 | -1.0 | | 华南重碱 | 1510.0 | 1500.0 | 1500.0 | -10.0 | 0.0 | SA09合约 | 1174.0 | 1173.0 | 1173.0 | -1.0 | 0.0 | | 青 海 | ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views - Glass shows a weak rebound due to the warming of commodity sentiment, but the medium - term demand contraction and industrial deflation persist, and the short - term fundamentals are still weak with no obvious driving force [1][4] - The overall logic of soda ash is a supply - demand surplus pattern, and a medium - to long - term bearish view is recommended, although it is sensitive to policy and cost changes [1][6] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Glass Supply - The weekly start - up rate of the float glass industry is 75.34%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.08 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate is 77.7%, a week - on - week increase of 0.22 percentage points [3] - One production line was cold - repaired this week, with a capacity of 700 tons per day. The daily output is 15.54 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.16%; the weekly output is 109.35 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.21% and a year - on - year decrease of 7.88% [3] Demand - In the off - season, the shipment in various regions is mainly for rigid demand, and the speculative purchasing demand is relatively weak [3] Inventory - The total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises increased by 202,000 heavy boxes or 0.29% week - on - week to 69.887 million heavy boxes, reaching an 8.5 - month high, with a year - on - year increase of 16.82%. The inventory days are 30.8 days, the same as the previous period [3] Cost and Profit - The costs of glass made from petroleum coke, coal, and natural gas are 1,138, 1,020, and 1,466 yuan per ton respectively, with week - on - week changes of - 20, - 6, and - 7 yuan per ton [3] - The production profits are - 108.5, 83.7, and - 195.1 yuan per ton respectively, with week - on - week changes of + 20, + 3, and - 12.3 yuan per ton [3] View and Strategy - The glass shows a weak repair market. The short - term fundamentals are weak, and there is no obvious driving force. Although the valuation is relatively low, considering the uncertainty of the off - season and limited positive driving forces, attention should be paid to the 1,045 pressure level [4] Soda Ash Supply - The comprehensive capacity utilization rate of soda ash this week is 86.57%, a week - on - week increase of 1.68%. The domestic soda ash output is 754,700 tons, a week - on - week increase of 14,600 tons or 1.97% [5] Demand - The sales - to - production ratio this week is 94.65%, a week - on - week increase of 2.61%, but less than 100%. The downstream demand is average, mainly for on - demand procurement [5] - There is no new investment or cold - repair of production lines in photovoltaic glass, and the downstream orders are few. The performance of float glass is mediocre, with most processing plants having scattered orders [5] Inventory - The total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers is 1.7267 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 40,400 tons or 2.40%. Among them, the light soda ash inventory is 812,600 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1,300 tons; the heavy soda ash inventory is 914,100 tons, a week - on - week increase of 39,100 tons [5] Cost and Profit - The ammonia - soda production cost is 1,259 yuan per ton, a week - on - week decrease of 47 yuan per ton. The combined - soda production cost is 1,591 yuan per ton (calculated at a ratio of 75% - 80%, it is 1,193 - 1,272 yuan per ton), with no week - on - week change [5] - The profit of the ammonia - soda method is 25.2 yuan per ton, a week - on - week increase of 4.5 yuan per ton; the profit of the combined - soda method is 99.5 yuan per ton, a week - on - week decrease of 40 yuan per ton [5] View and Strategy - Soda ash shows a relatively poor performance. With the increase in supply and decrease in demand, the inventory of soda ash manufacturers has increased for three consecutive weeks, and the market is worried about over - supply. A medium - to long - term bearish view is recommended, and attention should be paid to the 10 - day moving average pressure [6]

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 【玻璃纯碱（ 】 信心稍有回暖，基本面延续承压 国贸期货 黑色金属研究中心 2025-06-23 黄志鸿 从业资格证号：F3051824 投资咨询证号：Z0015761 本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议；期市有风险，投资需谨慎 01 PART ONE 主要观点及策略概述 玻璃:供需双弱 | 影响因素 | 驱动 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | 供给 | 偏空 | 产量下降。本周全国浮法玻璃日产量为15.54万吨，比12日-0.16%。行业开工率为75.34%，比12日-0.08个百分点；行业产能利用率为77.7%， | | | | 比12日+0.22个百分点。本周供应面增减并存，增量方面，1条前期点火产线开始出玻璃，减量方面，一条产线放水叠加一条产线热修，周度供 | | | | 应量环比小幅上涨。下周2条前期点火产线或将开始出玻璃，另有1条产线存在放水预期，预计下周周度产量环比小幅减少。 | | 需求 | 偏空 | 需求预期走弱，淡季来临，需求边际下滑。稳增长压力较大，中期地产颓势难挽，竣工 ...

2025/6/13 2025/6/19 2025/6/20 周度变化 日度变化 2025/6/13 2025/6/19 2025/6/20 周度变化 日度变化 沙河重碱 1200.0 1210.0 1210.0 10.0 0.0 SA05合 约 1204.0 1209.0 1207.0 3.0 -2.0 华中重碱 1165.0 1175.0 1170.0 5.0 -5.0 S A 0 1合约 1153.0 1165.0 1162.0 9.0 -3.0 华南重碱 1510.0 1500.0 1500.0 -10.0 0.0 S A 0 9合约 1156.0 1176.0 1173.0 17.0 -3.0 青 海 重 碱 1030.0 960.0 960.0 -70.0 0.0 S A 0 9沙河基 差 44.0 34.0 37.0 -7.0 3.0 华北轻碱 1180.0 1180.0 1180.0 0.0 0.0 S A月差0 9 - 0 1 3.0 11.0 11.0 8.0 0.0 华中轻碱 1180.0 1180.0 1180.0 0.0 0.0 华北氨碱利润 -126.3 -111.3 -116.3 ...

黑色建材周报 | 2025-06-22 需求方面，全国各地区出货整体一般，市场以刚需采购为主，投机情绪较弱。 库存方面，本周全国浮法玻璃样本企业总库存6988.7万重箱，环比增加0.29%，下游拿货谨慎，价格承压。 整体来看，玻璃在部分产线亏损的情况下，供应环比仍有小幅上升，且下游刚需依旧疲软，房地产数据仍处于低 位。玻璃的高库存对价格形成较强的压制，在未减产的情况下仍需要长期亏损，以此达到出清产能的目的，持续 关注玻璃厂冷修计划和玻璃利润情况。 纯碱方面，本周纯碱主力合约2509震荡偏强，收盘价为1173元/吨，环比上涨17元/吨，涨幅1.47%。现货方面，下 游情绪较为谨慎，采购积极性不佳。 供应方面，据隆众资讯最新数据，本周纯碱产能利用率86.57%，环比增加1.68%，产量75.47万吨，环比增加1.97%， 部分企业有复产预期。 市场情绪好转，玻碱区间震荡 市场分析 玻璃方面，本周玻璃主力合约2509震荡上涨，收盘价为1007元/吨，环比上涨31元/吨，涨幅3.18%。现货方面，据 隆众资讯最新数据，国内浮法玻璃市场周均价1190元/吨，环比下降12.65元/吨，成交重心回落。 供应方面，本周浮法玻 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views - Glass: The medium - term outlook is a sideways market. Short - term spot prices are weak, with prices falling across regions. In the medium term, factors such as the June real - estate debt repayment peak and Hubei's warehouse receipt pricing will suppress the market. The 09 contract, a peak - season contract, is priced at a large loss, indicating high future volatility. Bulls focus on policy support, low spot prices, long - term factory losses, and peak - season expectations. Bears believe the real - estate market won't improve substantially, and inventory pressure is high [6][7]. -纯碱: The short - term outlook is weak. The glass market's pressure restricts the price increase of soda ash. High production and inventory are the core issues, and there is no long - term shortage expectation. Potential supporting factors like low light - heavy soda ash price difference, good exports, and high inventory concentration need the improvement of the glass market to take effect [8][9]. Summary by Directory Glass: Supply - side Situation - Cold - repaired production lines in 2025 have a total daily melting capacity of 8010 tons/day [12]. - Ignited production lines in 2025 have a total daily melting capacity of 9210 tons/day [13]. - Potential new ignition production lines have a total daily melting capacity of 13000 tons/day [15]. - Potential old - line复产 production lines have a total daily melting capacity of 7830 tons, mainly concentrated in South and Southwest China [16]. - Potential cold - repaired production lines have a total daily melting capacity of 7850 tons/day [18]. - The glass industry's production reduction space in the first half of the year is limited, with the current in - production capacity at around 155,000 tons/day [19][20]. Glass: Price and Profit - Recent transactions are slightly down but stable compared to last week. Some manufacturers' prices have dropped by 20 - 40 yuan/ton. Prices in different regions are: 1120 - 1180 yuan/ton in Shahe, 1000 - 1100 yuan/ton in Hubei, and 1220 - 1360 yuan/ton in East China [26][30]. - Futures prices have rebounded, the basis is weak, and the calendar spread is stable. The calendar spread's rebound space is limited due to near - month warehouse receipt factors [32][35]. - Profits vary by fuel: - 108 yuan/ton for petroleum coke, - 195 - 83 yuan/ton for natural gas and coal [36][40]. Glass: Inventory and Downstream开工 - Due to the rainy season, market transactions are weak, and inventory has slightly increased in most regions. Regional price differences have shrunk as prices in East China have declined [43][49]. Photovoltaic Glass: Price, Profit, Capacity, and Inventory - Prices are falling, recent orders are slightly down, shipments are average, and inventory is increasing. The prices of 2.0mm and 3.2mm coated panels have decreased by 4.08% and 2.47% respectively [56][58]. - As the market weakens, it may enter a production - reduction cycle again. The actual capacity as of mid - June is about 99,000 tons/day, and the sample inventory days are about 29.87 days, a 0.50% increase [59][64]. Soda Ash: Supply and Maintenance - Soda ash maintenance has reached its peak, and there may be less maintenance in June. The current capacity utilization rate is 86.5%, and the weekly output of heavy soda ash is 415,000 tons. The inventory is about 1.7267 million tons, with 812,600 tons of light soda ash and 914,000 tons of heavy soda ash [69][72][73]. Soda Ash: Price and Profit - This week's prices have changed little, with some northwest manufacturers reducing prices. The nominal prices in Shahe and Hubei are around 1200 - 1300 yuan/ton. High production and inventory put pressure on near - month contracts. The basis is slightly strong, and the calendar spread is under pressure. The profit in East China (excluding Shandong) for the joint - alkali method is 99.5 yuan/ton, and in North China for the ammonia - alkali method is 25 yuan/ton [84][86][91].

Market Overview - The domestic soda ash market remains stable overall, with slight declines in some regions. As of now, the price of light soda ash in North China is between 1270-1380 CNY/ton, and heavy soda ash is between 1280-1390 CNY/ton. In Southwest China, light soda ash is priced at 1230-1360 CNY/ton, while heavy soda ash is between 1330-1510 CNY/ton [2]. Supply and Demand - On the supply side, the Zhongyan Kunshan soda ash facility is undergoing scheduled maintenance, while the Lianyungang Debang facility is gradually increasing its operational load. Demand remains weak, with downstream companies adopting a conservative purchasing strategy, typically replenishing stocks only when prices dip [2]. - The overall trading atmosphere in the market is relatively quiet, with a strong sense of caution among industry participants regarding future market conditions [2]. Price Index Analysis - As of June 20, the light soda ash price index is 1234.29, down 2.86 from the previous working day, a decrease of 0.23%. The heavy soda ash price index is 1271.43, down 1.43, a decrease of 0.11% [3]. Futures Market Dynamics - On June 20, the main contract for soda ash (SA2509) opened at 1174 CNY/ton and closed at 1173 CNY/ton, with an intraday decline of 0.26%. The highest price during the day was 1193 CNY/ton, and the lowest was 1164 CNY/ton, with total open interest at 1,468,176 contracts, a decrease of 27,284 contracts [5]. - The soda ash futures market exhibited a volatile trend, initially rising before retreating due to supply-demand fundamentals. The industry faces oversupply and accumulating inventory, with weak downstream demand and limited order volumes [5]. Future Market Predictions - Currently, the number of maintenance enterprises is low, leading to a relaxed supply situation in the soda ash market. Downstream purchasing intentions are weak, and there is a lack of significant driving factors for the market. It is expected that short-term soda ash prices will maintain a narrow fluctuation trend, with attention needed on operational conditions of enterprises and changes in downstream replenishment rhythms [6].