Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints - No clear core viewpoints are presented in the given content Summary by Related Catalogs Glass - **Price Changes**: From August 1 to August 8, 2025, prices of various 5mm glass products decreased, e.g., the price of the 5mm large - plate of Shahe Anquan dropped from 1207.0 to 1173.0, a decrease of 34.0; the price of the 5mm large - plate of Wuhan Changli decreased from 1240.0 to 1200.0, a decrease of 40.0 [1] - **Profit Changes**: Profits of different glass production methods and contracts also changed. For example, the profit of North China coal - fired glass decreased from 304.6 to 249.2, a decrease of 55.4; the profit of 09FG contract natural gas decreased from - 267.0 to - 304.5, a decrease of 37.5 [1] - **Spot Market**: Shahe factory's glass sales were average, with Shahe traders' low - price products around 1150 and poor sales; Hubei's factory price was around 1020, and the Hubei 09 futures - spot price difference was - 30 to 40, with poor transactions [1] - **Production and Sales**: The production - sales ratios of glass in different regions were as follows: Shahe 82, Hubei 56, East China 87, and South China 99 [2] Soda Ash - **Price Changes**: From August 1 to August 8, 2025, prices of different types of soda ash changed. For example, the price of Shahe heavy soda decreased from 1250.0 to 1240.0, a decrease of 10.0; the price of Central China heavy soda decreased from 1200.0 to 1140.0, a decrease of 60.0 [1] - **Profit Changes**: Profits of different soda ash production methods also changed. For example, the profit of North China ammonia - soda method decreased from - 99.7 to - 132.8, a decrease of 33.1; the profit of North China combined - soda method decreased from - 192.9 to - 220.6, a decrease of 27.7 [1] - **Spot Market**: The spot price of heavy soda at the Hebei delivery warehouse was around 1240, and the price delivered to Shahe was around 1280. Downstream customers were reluctant to accept high prices, with an intended price of 1220 - 1250 for delivery. Futures - spot transactions were average [1] - **Industry Situation**: Factory inventories continued to accumulate, and there were rumors of potential environmental protection actions in Qinghai, but the industry could not confirm them [1]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views Glass and Soda Ash - Soda ash remains in an obvious oversupply situation, with weakening spot sales recently. In the medium term, after the PV glass capacity growth slows down and the float glass capacity stabilizes, there is still pressure on supply and demand, and there may be further cold repair expectations. It is recommended to wait for a new opportunity to short. [1] - The glass market has seen a significant weakening in the recent market sentiment, and the spot sales have also declined sharply. The inventory has shifted from manufacturers to middle - men, and the overall spot price is difficult to increase further. It is recommended to hold short positions. [1] Industrial Silicon - Driven by the good atmosphere in the commodity market, industrial silicon has risen. In August, the supply and demand of the industrial silicon market both increase, and it is expected to reach a tight balance. If the price drops to 8000 - 8500 yuan/ton, it is advisable to try long positions. [2] Polysilicon - In August, the supply and demand of polysilicon both increase, but the supply growth rate is larger, and there is still pressure on inventory accumulation. If there is new progress in capacity integration or clearance, polysilicon is expected to rise again; otherwise, it may fluctuate and decline under the pressure of inventory and warehouse receipts. It is advisable to try long positions at low prices and buy put options to try short positions at high prices. [3] Natural Rubber - In the short term, the positive factors on the supply side are concentrated, and the spot inventory continues to decline. The rubber price is expected to be strong. It is recommended to short at high prices if the raw material supply in the peak - production season is smooth. [4] Logs - From a fundamental perspective, last week, due to the reduction of available goods in some specifications and the reluctance of traders to sell, the spot price was continuously raised. The demand remains strong, and the inventory has decreased significantly. The short - term futures market is expected to fluctuate strongly, and it is recommended to go long at low prices. [5] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Glass and Soda Ash Price and Spread - Glass: The prices in North China, East China, Central China, and South China have all declined, while the futures prices of glass 2505 and 2509 have increased. The 05 basis has decreased. [1] - Soda ash: The prices in North China, East China, and Central China remain unchanged, while the price in Northwest China has decreased. The futures prices of soda ash 2505 and 2509 have increased, and the 05 basis has decreased. [1] Supply - The soda ash production rate and weekly output have increased, while the float glass daily melting volume and PV glass daily melting volume remain unchanged. [1] Inventory - The glass inventory and soda ash factory and delivery - warehouse inventories have all increased, while the glass factory's soda ash inventory days remain unchanged. [1] Real Estate Data - The year - on - year growth rates of new construction area, completion area, and sales area have all decreased, while the growth rate of under - construction area has decreased significantly. [1] Industrial Silicon Spot Price and Basis - The prices of East China oxygen - passing SI5530 industrial silicon, East China SI4210 industrial silicon, and Xinjiang 99 silicon have all increased, while the corresponding bases have decreased. [2] Monthly Spread - The spreads of 2508 - 2509, 2510 - 2511, and 2511 - 2512 have decreased, while the spreads of 2509 - 2510 and 2512 - 2601 have increased. [2] Fundamental Data - The national industrial silicon output, national and regional production rates, and exports have increased, while the organic silicon DMC output has decreased. [2] Inventory - The Xinjiang factory inventory has decreased slightly, while the Sichuan factory inventory and social inventory have increased slightly. [2] Polysilicon Spot Price and Basis - The average prices of N - type re - feeding material, N - type granular silicon, and other products remain unchanged, while the N - type material basis has decreased significantly. [3] Futures Price and Monthly Spread - The main contract price has increased, while the spreads of "current month - first - continuous" and "first - continuous - second - continuous" have changed significantly. [3] Fundamental Data - The weekly and monthly polysilicon production, export volume, and net export volume have increased, while the import volume has decreased. The silicon wafer production has changed in different periods. [3] Inventory - The polysilicon inventory, silicon wafer inventory, and polysilicon warehouse receipts have all increased. [3] Natural Rubber Spot Price and Basis - The prices of Yunnan state - owned whole - latex and Thai standard mixed rubber have increased, while the prices of cup rubber, glue, and some raw materials in Xishuangbanna have dropped to zero. The basis and non - standard price difference have decreased. [4] Monthly Spread - The spreads of 9 - 1 and 1 - 5 have decreased, while the spread of 5 - 9 has increased. [4] Fundamental Data - In June, the production of Thailand and India increased, while the production of Indonesia decreased. The tire production and natural rubber import volume in China increased, while the tire export volume decreased. The production cost and profit of Thai dry rubber have changed. [4] Inventory - The bonded area inventory has decreased, while the Shanghai Futures Exchange factory - warehouse futures inventory has increased. The inbound and outbound rates of dry rubber in Qingdao have changed. [4] Logs Futures and Spot Price - The prices of log futures contracts 2509, 2511, and 2601 have increased, while the basis has decreased. The spot prices of some radiation pine and spruce in ports remain unchanged or increase slightly. The new round of foreign quotation remains unchanged. [5] Cost - The RMB - US dollar exchange rate and the import theoretical cost remain unchanged. [5] Monthly Data - The port shipping volume and the number of departing ships from New Zealand to China, Japan, and South Korea have decreased. [5] Inventory - The inventory in major ports in China, Shandong, and Jiangsu has decreased. [5] Demand - The daily average outbound volume in China remains unchanged, with a slight increase in Shandong and a slight decrease in Jiangsu. [5]

Group 1 - The demand for architectural glass is expected to remain high, supported by urban renewal and government subsidies stimulating renovation needs, which will positively impact float glass demand [1] - The renovation demand for second-hand housing is anticipated to continue growing, as properties built after 2005 reach 20 years of age, leading to increased glass usage in new developments [1] - The window-to-wall ratio in new residential and commercial buildings is increasing, further driving the demand for glass [1] Group 2 - The photovoltaic glass sector is experiencing a supply-demand imbalance, with rapid capacity expansion since 2021 leading to price pressures and potential reductions in production due to profitability concerns [2] - The apparent consumption of soda ash is projected to grow by 13.49% year-on-year in 2024, reaching 35.23 million tons, despite potential slowdowns in demand due to losses in the photovoltaic glass sector [2] - The soda ash industry faces significant pressure from new capacity, with several projects underway, including a 2.8 million ton natural soda ash capacity addition by Boyuan Chemical [3] Group 3 - The cost of production for different soda ash manufacturing processes shows that only the natural soda process remains profitable, with costs of 1,246, 1,395, and 679 RMB per ton for the Leblanc, ammonia-soda, and natural soda processes respectively [3] - The U.S. dominates the global soda ash market due to its abundant natural soda resources and advanced production technology, holding 99% of the world's natural soda resources and accounting for 50% of global trade [3] - The natural soda process is expected to emerge as a key player in the soda ash industry due to its lower production costs and competitive advantage [3]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given reports. Core Views Glass and Soda Ash - Soda ash has an obvious oversupply pattern. With no growth expected in overall demand, it's necessary to track policy implementation and production load adjustments. Wait for a new short - selling opportunity. [1] - Glass has seen a weakening of the market sentiment and a significant decline in spot trading. The industry needs capacity clearance to solve the over - supply problem. Hold short positions and be vigilant against macro - induced fluctuations. [1] Industrial Silicon - In August, the supply and demand of industrial silicon both increase, and it is expected to reach a tight balance. The price may fluctuate between 8000 - 9500 yuan/ton. Consider going long when the price drops to 8000 - 8500 yuan/ton. [2] Polysilicon - In August, the supply of polysilicon increases more rapidly than demand, facing inventory accumulation pressure. If there is progress in capacity integration or clearance, it may rise; otherwise, it may fluctuate downward. The price may range from 45,000 - 58,000 yuan/ton. Consider going long at low prices and buying put options to short at high prices. [3] Natural Rubber - In the short term, supply - side benefits are released, and inventory is decreasing. Rubber prices are expected to be strong. Monitor the raw material supply during the peak production season and consider short - selling if raw materials are abundant. [4] Logs - The log market is affected by reduced available supply and cost support. With stable demand and significant inventory reduction, the short - term futures market is expected to be bullish. It is recommended to go long at low prices. [5] Summaries by Related Catalogs Glass and Soda Ash Prices and Spreads - Glass prices in various regions decreased, with South China having the largest decline of 2.33%. Soda ash prices in most regions remained stable, except for a 2.78% decline in the Northwest. [1] - The basis of glass 2505 and soda ash 2505 decreased by 28.70% and 19.05% respectively. [1] Supply - Soda ash production increased, with the weekly output rising by 6.42% to 74.47 million tons, and the operating rate increasing by 6.40% to 85.41%. [1] - The daily melting volume of float glass and photovoltaic glass remained unchanged. [1] Inventory - Glass inventory increased by 3.95%, soda ash factory inventory increased by 3.86%, and soda ash delivery warehouse inventory increased by 16.40%. [1] Industrial Silicon Prices and Spreads - The prices of various types of industrial silicon increased slightly, with the largest increase of 1.75% for Xinjiang 99 - silicon. The basis of some types decreased significantly. [2] Supply and Demand - National industrial silicon production increased by 3.23% to 33.83 million tons, and the operating rate increased by 2.47% to 52.61%. [2] - The production of downstream products such as polysilicon and regenerated aluminum alloy also increased. [2] Inventory - The social inventory of industrial silicon increased by 1.30% to 54.70 million tons. [2] Polysilicon Prices and Spreads - The average prices of N - type polysilicon products remained stable, while the basis of N - type materials decreased by 57.92%. [3] Supply and Demand - Weekly and monthly polysilicon production increased by 10.94% and 5.10% respectively. The import volume decreased by 16.90%, and the export volume increased by 66.17%. [3] Inventory - Polysilicon inventory increased by 1.75%, and the number of warehouse receipts increased by 29.83%. [3] Natural Rubber Prices and Spreads - The prices of some natural rubber products increased, such as Yunnan state - owned whole - latex increasing by 1.38%. The prices of some raw materials dropped to zero. [4] Supply and Demand - Thailand and India's rubber production increased in June, while Indonesia's decreased. Tire production and export showed mixed performance. [4] Inventory - The bonded - area inventory of natural rubber decreased by 1.35%, while the futures inventory in the factory warehouse increased by 6.34%. [4] Logs Prices and Spreads - Log futures prices fluctuated slightly, with the 2509 contract closing at 832.5 yuan/cubic meter. The spot prices of some benchmark delivery products increased. [5] Supply and Demand - Port shipping volume decreased by 1.51%, and the number of departing ships from New Zealand to China, Japan, and South Korea decreased by 11.32%. The demand remained stable at 6.42 million cubic meters per day. [5] Inventory - The national log inventory decreased by 2.84% to 308 million cubic meters. [5]

纯碱现货：重碱河北交割库现货报价在1200左右，送到沙河1240左右，下游低价刚需拿货。期现成交一般 纯碱产业：工厂库存继续累库 1,000 1,200 1,400 1,600 1,800 2,000 2,200 河北鑫利4.8mm（折5mm） 2022 2023 2024 2025 (600) (400) (200) 0 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 1,400 1,600 1,800 华北玻璃生产利润（气） 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 1151 1173 1147 1060 1056 1068 1158 1219 900 950 1000 1050 1100 1150 1200 1250 沙河德金 沙河安全 沙河低价 湖北低价 08合约 09合约 11合约 01合约 玻璃价格结构 今日(8/11） 昨日(8/8） 一周前(8/4） 一月前(7/11） (500) 0 500 1,000 1,500 华南玻璃利润（气） 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 ...

Group 1: Natural Rubber Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View Supply side is affected by labor return in Cambodia and disrupted rubber tapping in Thailand, with expected stronger raw material prices. Demand side shows good replacement demand, and market trading activity is expected to increase. Winter snow tire orders are expected to rise in the next period [1]. Summary by Directory - **Spot Price and Basis**: Yunnan state - owned whole - miscible rubber price decreased by 0.69%, while Thai standard mixed rubber price increased by 0.35%. Cup rubber price increased slightly, and glue price remained unchanged. Basis of whole milk and non - standard price difference changed [1]. - **Inter - month Spread**: 1 - 5 spread increased by 20.83%, and 5 - 9 spread decreased by 2.28%, while 9 - 1 spread remained unchanged [1]. - **Production and Consumption Data**: In June, Thailand's production increased by 44.23%, Indonesia's decreased by 12.03%, India's increased by 30.82%, and China's increased slightly. Tire production and export data also changed.开工率 of semi - steel and all - steel tires decreased slightly [1]. - **Inventory Change**: Bonded area inventory increased by 0.91%, and Shanghai Futures Exchange's factory - warehouse futures inventory increased by 6.34%. Warehouse entry and exit rates of dry glue in Qingdao also changed [1]. Group 2: Glass and Soda Ash Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View For soda ash, it is in an obvious oversupply pattern, with weakening spot sales. Future demand has no growth expectation, and inventory may face more pressure. For glass, the market sentiment has declined, and the downstream demand is weak. The industry needs capacity clearance [3]. Summary by Directory - **Glass - related Price and Spread**: Prices in North China, East China, and South China remained unchanged, while that in Central China decreased by 0.83%. Futures prices of glass 2505 and 2509 decreased [3]. - **Soda Ash - related Price and Spread**: Prices in North China, East China, and Central China remained unchanged, while that in Northwest China decreased by 2.78%. Futures prices of soda ash 2505 and 2509 decreased [3]. - **Supply**: Soda ash's operating rate increased by 6.40%, and weekly output increased by 6.42%. Float glass and photovoltaic glass melting volumes remained unchanged [3]. - **Inventory**: Glass factory - warehouse inventory increased by 3.95%, soda ash factory - warehouse inventory increased by 3.86%, and soda ash delivery - warehouse inventory increased by 16.40% [3]. - **Real Estate Data**: New construction area decreased by 0.09%, construction area decreased by 2.43%, completion area decreased by 0.03%, and sales area decreased by 6.50% [3]. Group 3: Log Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View Last week, spot prices rose due to reduced available sources and trader reluctance to sell, and the new outer - market quotation increased. However, weak demand leads to low acceptance of price increases by downstream and low willingness of traders to take delivery. The supply pressure may increase this week, and the short - term market is expected to fluctuate between 800 - 850 [4]. Summary by Directory - **Futures and Spot Price**: Futures prices of logs 2509, 2511, and 2501 changed slightly. Spot prices of some radiation pine in Shandong and Jiangsu increased. Outer - market quotation increased by 1.75% [4]. - **Cost**: Import theoretical cost increased by 2% [4]. - **Supply**: Port shipping volume increased by 2.12%, and the number of ships from New Zealand to China, Japan, and South Korea decreased by 8.62% [4]. - **Inventory**: National coniferous log inventory remained unchanged, Shandong's inventory increased by 1.04%, and Jiangsu's decreased by 5.55% [4]. - **Demand**: Weekly demand increased slightly, with national average daily outbound volume increasing by 0.01 million cubic meters [4]. Group 4: Industrial Silicon Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View Under the anti - involution policy, the price center of industrial silicon is expected to move up. In August, supply and demand both increase, and it may reach a tight balance. But inventory and warehouse receipt pressure are emerging. The main price range is expected to be 8000 - 9500 yuan/ton, and it is advisable to consider buying on dips when the price drops to 8000 - 8500 yuan/ton [5]. Summary by Directory - **Spot Price and Basis**: Prices of different types of industrial silicon remained unchanged, while basis decreased [5]. - **Inter - month Spread**: Some spreads changed, such as 2508 - 2509 spread decreased by 137.50% [5]. - **Fundamental Data**: National industrial silicon production increased by 3.23%, with different changes in Xinjiang, Yunnan, and Sichuan. Organic silicon DMC output decreased, while polysilicon and recycled aluminum alloy output increased. Industrial silicon export volume increased by 22.77% [5]. - **Inventory Change**: Xinjiang's factory - warehouse inventory decreased slightly, while social inventory and non - warehouse receipt inventory increased [5]. Group 5: Polysilicon Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View In early August, polysilicon futures prices rose. In August, supply and demand both increase, but supply growth is larger, with inventory accumulation pressure. If there is new progress in capacity integration or clearance, prices may rise again; otherwise, they may fluctuate and decline. The spread between PS2511 and PS2512 is expected to narrow [6]. Summary by Directory - **Spot Price and Basis**: Spot prices of N - type polysilicon and related products remained mostly unchanged, while basis of N - type materials decreased [6]. - **Futures Price and Inter - month Spread**: The main contract price increased by 1.36%. Some inter - month spreads changed significantly, such as the decrease of the spread between the current month and the first - continuous contract by 5800.00% [6]. - **Fundamental Data**: Weekly and monthly polysilicon and silicon wafer production data changed. Polysilicon import volume decreased, and export volume increased [6]. - **Inventory Change**: Polysilicon and silicon wafer inventories increased, and polysilicon warehouse receipts increased [6].

Report Summary Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views - Glass: Market sentiment has stabilized, and attention should be paid to the restocking intensity at the end of the month. The fundamental situation has weakened in the short term, with frequent regulatory actions from the exchange, so short - term risks should be vigilant. [1][40] -纯碱: The fundamental situation has not improved, and it will fluctuate weakly in the short term. The market is significantly affected by macro - emotions, and subsequent changes in market sentiment should be monitored. [1][5] Summary by Section 1. Soda Ash - **Price**: Spot prices remained stable this week, with the price difference between heavy and light soda ash remaining stable. Futures prices were weakly stable last week, with the main SA2509 contract closing at 1249 (-7), the 9 - 1 spread at - 83 (-6), and the basis of the main 09 contract at +95 (-9). [6][10] - **Supply**: Last week, soda ash production was 744,600 tons (+24,700, +3.46%), with light soda ash production at 321,200 tons (+9,900) and heavy soda ash production at 423,400 tons (+14,800). The operating rate was 85.41% (+5.14%). [5][16] - **Demand**: Last week, the shipment volume of soda ash enterprises was 675,400 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 12.13%; the overall production - sales rate was 90.69%, a week - on - week decrease of 19.14%. Demand weakened slightly last week, and downstream enterprises mainly purchased on a rigid - demand basis. Net exports decreased. [5][25] - **Inventory**: Last week, the inventory of soda ash enterprises was 1.8651 million tons (+69,300, +3.86%), with light soda ash inventory at 717,600 tons (+24,600) and heavy soda ash inventory at 114,750 tons (+44,700). [5][32] - **Cost and Profit**: Last week, the profit of the dual - ton combined - soda process was +68.5 yuan/ton (-38), and the profit of the ammonia - soda process was +56.2 yuan/ton (-0.9), remaining basically flat overall. [5][37] 2. Glass - **Price**: Spot prices were stable with a slight decline last week. The main 2509 contract closed at 1063 (-39), the 9 - 1 spread was - 133 (-11), and the basis of the main 09 contract was +197 (-1). [40][41][48] - **Supply**: Last week, the daily output of float glass in production was 159,600 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.00%. The production was 110.70 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.16%. The operating rate was 75.00%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.34%, and the capacity utilization rate was 79.78%, a week - on - week increase of 0.13%. [40][54] - **Demand**: As of the end of July, the order days of deep - processing enterprises were 9.55 days, an increase of 0.25 compared to the previous period. Downstream demand recovery was slow. The real - estate market recovery was weak, while the automobile production and sales situation in June was at a relatively high level in recent years. [40][63] - **Inventory**: Last week, the total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises was 61.847 million heavy boxes, a week - on - week increase of 3.95%. Inventory increased in all regions. [40][70] - **Cost and Profit**: Last week, the profit of coal - gas - made float glass was +111.05 yuan/ton (-27.09); the profit of natural - gas - made float glass was - 150.36 yuan/ton (+0); the profit of petroleum - coke - made float glass was - 130.57 yuan/ton (-7.14). Industry profits were stable in the short term. [40][84]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Glass: Oscillating [3] - Soda Ash: Bearish [4] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The anti - involution logic is long - term, but the weak reality persists. The near - term prices are constrained by the weak reality, with the oversupply situation continuing. For glass, demand has some resilience but is hard to improve in the off - season, supply is stable, and inventory accumulates significantly. For soda ash, supply returns to a high level, demand weakens, costs provide support, but near - term inventory is large and faces delivery pressure. It is recommended to focus on long positions in the far - month contracts for glass and cash - and - carry arbitrage for soda ash [40]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Main Viewpoints and Strategy Overview Glass - Supply: Bearish. The daily output of national float glass is 159,600 tons, remaining stable. The industry start - up rate is 75.34%, up 0.34 percentage points from the 31st, and the capacity utilization rate is 79.78%, remaining unchanged. One production line restarted this week, and it is estimated that next week's output will remain stable [3]. - Demand: Neutral. There is short - term resilience, but overall demand is under pressure in the off - season. Speculative demand fades as prices decline [3]. - Inventory: Bearish. Enterprise inventory is 61.847 million heavy cases, a week - on - week increase of 2.348 million heavy cases, or 3.95%, and a year - on - year decrease of 8.18%. The inventory days are 26.4 days, an increase of 0.9 days from the previous period [3]. - Basis/Spread: Neutral. This week, the basis declined, and the 09 - 01 spread decreased [3]. - Valuation: Neutral. Currently, prices are mainly under pressure, and costs provide support [3]. - Macro and Policy: Neutral. The anti - involution logic is long - term, but the weak reality remains, and overall sentiment fluctuates sharply [3]. - Investment View: Oscillating. Weak reality and strong expectations lead to price oscillations [3]. - Trading Strategy: Hold long positions in far - month contracts for unilateral trading; no arbitrage strategy. Pay attention to daily melting volume, production and sales, and domestic and overseas macro - policy disturbances [3]. Soda Ash - Supply: Bearish. This week's soda ash output is 744,700 tons, a week - on - week increase of 44,900 tons, or 6.41%. Light soda ash output is 321,200 tons, a week - on - week increase of 20,100 tons, and heavy soda ash output is 423,500 tons, a week - on - week increase of 24,800 tons. Supply increases as maintenance enterprises resume production [4]. - Demand: Bearish. Short - term direct demand is weak, and photovoltaic production continues to decline. Speculative demand weakens as prices fall [4]. - Inventory: Bearish. Total manufacturer inventory is 1.8651 million tons, an increase of 69,300 tons from last Thursday, or 3.86%. Light soda ash inventory is 717,600 tons, a week - on - week increase of 24,600 tons, and heavy soda ash inventory is 1.1475 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 44,700 tons [4]. - Basis/Spread: Neutral. This week, the basis declined, and the 09 - 01 spread decreased [4]. - Valuation: Neutral. Currently, prices fluctuate significantly, and costs provide support [4]. - Macro and Policy: Neutral. The anti - involution logic continues, mainly affecting far - month contracts, and sentiment fluctuates sharply [4]. - Investment View: Bearish. Weak reality and strong expectations, with high inventory [4]. - Trading Strategy: No unilateral trading strategy; take profit on cash - and - carry arbitrage. Pay attention to soda ash plant production, glass production and sales, and domestic and overseas macro - policy disturbances [4]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market Review - Glass: This week, prices declined. The main contract closed at 1063 (- 39), and the Shahe spot price was 1104 (- 80) [6]. - Soda Ash: This week, prices declined. The main contract was transferred to the 01 contract, closing at 1332, and the Shahe spot price was 1257 (+ 10) [11]. - Spread/Basis: For soda ash, the 09 - 01 spread and the basis both decreased significantly. For glass, the 09 - 01 spread and the basis also decreased significantly [20]. 3.3 Supply and Demand Fundamental Data Glass - Supply: Stable. The daily output of national float glass is 159,600 tons, remaining stable. The start - up rate is 75.34%, up 0.34 percentage points from the 31st, and the capacity utilization rate is 79.78%, remaining unchanged. One production line restarted this week, and it is estimated that next week's output will remain stable. Glass production profits decline as spot prices fall [23]. - Demand: Resilient. The average order days of national deep - processing sample enterprises is 9.55 days, a week - on - week increase of 2.7% and a year - on - year decrease of 1.55%. Real - estate mid - and back - end completion data is poor. From January to June, the floor area under construction decreased by 9.1% year - on - year, the newly started area decreased by 20.0%, and the completed area decreased by 14.8% [26][27]. - Inventory: Accumulating. Enterprise inventory is 61.847 million heavy cases, a week - on - week increase of 2.348 million heavy cases, or 3.95%, and a year - on - year decrease of 8.18%. The inventory days are 26.4 days, an increase of 0.9 days from the previous period [28]. Soda Ash - Supply: Output returns to a high level. This week's soda ash output is 744,700 tons, a week - on - week increase of 44,900 tons, or 6.41%. Light soda ash output is 321,200 tons, a week - on - week increase of 20,100 tons, and heavy soda ash output is 423,500 tons, a week - on - week increase of 24,800 tons. Alkali plant profits decline as soda ash prices weaken [31][32]. - Demand: Weakening. Overall demand is weakening, short - term direct demand is weak, and photovoltaic production continues to decline. Speculative demand fades as prices fall. Manufacturer inventory increases significantly [35].

Investment Rating - The report does not provide an investment rating for the glass industry. Core Viewpoints - The glass market is in a pattern of strong supply and weak demand in the medium to long term, so it is considered bearish. However, considering the possible improvement in sales in Hebei and the relatively strong macro - expectations, short - term long positions can be tried for the 01 contract [3]. - The 09 contract has limited upside and downside space, and it is recommended that short positions stop profit and exit [3]. Summary by Directory 01 Investment Strategy - The investment strategy is to try short - term long positions. The 01 contract should pay attention to the support level of 1160 - 1170 and try short - term long positions for one week [2][3]. 02 & 03 Market Review - **Price Changes**: As of August 8, the 5mm float glass market price in North China was 1,180 yuan/ton (-60), in Central China was 1,190 yuan/ton (-30), and in East China was 1,270 yuan/ton (-40). The glass 09 contract closed at 1063 yuan/ton last Friday, down 39 for the week [10]. - **Spread Changes**: As of August 8, the difference between soda ash and glass futures prices was 269 yuan/ton (+115). The basis of the glass 09 contract last Friday was 77 yuan/ton (-21), and the 09 - 01 spread was - 133 yuan/ton (-11) [12][15]. 04 Profit - **Natural Gas Process**: The cost was 1,592 yuan/ton (-3), and the gross profit was - 322 yuan/ton (-37). - **Coal - Gas Process**: The cost was 1,180 yuan/ton (+9), and the gross profit was 0 yuan/ton (-69). - **Petroleum Coke Process**: The cost was 1,106 yuan/ton (-3), and the gross profit was 84 yuan/ton (-27) [16][20]. 05 Supply - The daily melting volume of glass last Friday was 158,355 tons/day (+600), with 223 production lines in operation. The No. 1 float line of Zhejiang Futele restarted with a daily melting volume of 600T/D [22]. 06 Inventory - As of August 8, the national inventory of 80 glass sample manufacturers was 6,184.7 million weight boxes (+234.8). Inventories in North China, Central China, East China, South China, and Southwest China all increased, and the inventories in Shahe and Hubei factories also rose [26][32]. 07 Deep - processing - On August 4, the comprehensive sales - to - production ratio of float glass was 87% (+7%). On August 7, the operating rate of LOW - E glass was 47.1% (+2.2%). At the beginning of August, the order days of glass deep - processing were 9.55 days (+0.25) [33]. 08 & 09 Demand - **Automobile**: In June, China's automobile production was 2.794 million vehicles (month - on - month increase of 145,000 and year - on - year increase of 287,000), and sales were 2.904 million vehicles (month - on - month increase of 218,000 and year - on - year increase of 352,000). In July, the retail volume of new - energy passenger vehicles was 987,000, with a penetration rate of 54% [45]. - **Real Estate**: In June, China's real estate completion area was 41.8147 million square meters (-2% year - on - year), new construction area was 71.8071 million square meters (-9%), construction area was 83.0189 million square meters (+5%), and commercial housing sales area was 105.354 million square meters (-7%). The real estate development investment in June was 1.042416 trillion yuan (-12% year - on - year) [53]. 10 Soda Ash Market - **Price**: As of last weekend, the mainstream market price of heavy soda ash in North China was 1,400 yuan/ton (0), in East China was 1,350 yuan/ton (-25), in Central China was 1,325 yuan/ton (-50), and in South China was 1,500 yuan/ton (0). The soda ash 2509 contract closed at 1,332 yuan/ton last Friday (+76) [55][57]. - **Basis**: The basis of the soda ash Central China 09 contract last Friday was 76 yuan/ton (-43) [59]. 11 & 12 & 13 Cost - end Soda Ash - **Profit**: As of last Friday, the cost of the ammonia - alkali method was 1,305 yuan/ton (+5), with a gross profit of 56 yuan/ton (-1); the cost of the joint - alkali method was 1,790 yuan/ton (-5), with a gross profit of 69 yuan/ton (-38) [63][65]. - **Production and Inventory**: Last week, the domestic soda ash production was 744,600 tons (week - on - week increase of 44,800), including 423,400 tons of heavy soda ash (week - on - week increase of 24,700) and 321,200 tons of light soda ash (week - on - week increase of 20,100). The inventory was 1.8651 million tons (week - on - week increase of 69,300). The exchange soda ash warehouse receipts last weekend were 7,715 (+4,925) [72][78]. - **Apparent Consumption and Sales - to - Production Ratio**: The weekly apparent demand for heavy soda ash was 378,700 tons (week - on - week decrease of 39,600). The sales - to - production ratio of soda ash last week was 90.69% (week - on - week decrease of 19.14%). The soda ash inventory days of sample float glass factories in July were 25.8 days [86].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoint - No explicit core viewpoint presented in the given text 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Glass Price and Contract Information - From August 1 to August 8, 2025, the prices of various 5mm glass products in different regions showed different degrees of change. For example, the price of 5mm large - plate glass in Wuhan Changli decreased by 40.0, and the FG09 contract price decreased by 39.0 [2]. - The FG9 - 1 spread changed from - 122.0 on August 1 to - 133.0 on August 8, with a weekly change of - 11.0 and a daily change of 11.0 [2]. Profit and Cost - From August 1 to August 8, 2025, the profit of North China coal - fired glass decreased by 55.4, and the cost decreased by 2.8. The profit of South China natural gas glass remained unchanged at - 129.1, and the profit of North China natural gas glass decreased by 46.8 [2]. Spot and Sales - The sales of glass factories in Shahe were average, with the low - price of traders around 1150 and the sales volume average. The price of factories in Hubei was around 1060, and the sales of glass in different regions were as follows: Shahe 82, Hubei 79, East China 91, and South China 89 [2]. Soda Ash Price and Contract Information - From August 1 to August 8, 2025, the prices of heavy soda ash in different regions changed. For example, the price of heavy soda ash in Central China decreased by 60.0, and the SA05 contract price increased by 13.0 [2]. - The SA09 - 01 spread changed from - 77.0 on August 1 to - 83.0 on August 8, with a weekly change of - 6.0 and a daily change of 7.0 [2]. Profit and Cost - From August 1 to August 8, 2025, the profit of North China ammonia - soda process decreased by 33.1, and the profit of North China combined - soda process increased by 11.0 [2]. Spot and Industry - The spot price of heavy soda ash in Hebei delivery warehouses was around 1200, and the price delivered to Shahe was around 1240. Downstream customers purchased on a low - price and just - in - time basis, and the futures - spot trading volume was average. The factory inventory of soda ash increased, and the delivery warehouse inventory increased significantly [2].