1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Cautiously bearish**: Crude oil, LPG, L, PP, PVC, PX, Ethylene Glycol (MEG), Methanol, Urea, Asphalt [1][3][4][5][8] - **Cautiously bullish**: PTA, Natural Gas [3][8] - **Bearish rebound**: L, PP, PVC, Soda Ash [1][8] - **Bearish consolidation**: Glass [8] 2. Report's Core Views - **Overall**: The energy and chemical market is influenced by multiple factors including supply - demand dynamics, macro - policies, and cost fluctuations. Most products face supply - side pressures, while some demand shows short - term improvement but lacks long - term stability [1][3][4][5][8] - **Specific products**: - **Crude oil**: OPEC+ may expand production, leading to a supply surplus and downward pressure on oil prices [1][11][12] - **LPG**: Cost - side oil price correction leads to a weakening of LPG [1][17] - **PTA**: New device production and potential maintenance may balance supply, with short - term upward momentum due to "anti - involution" hype, but long - term supply remains loose [3][36] - **Methanol**: High inventory suppresses prices, but demand shows slight improvement, and there is potential for long - term price increase [4][43] - **Urea**: Supply is relatively abundant, and although demand improves slightly, winter demand and export incentives are limited [5][47] 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs 3.1 Crude Oil - **Market situation**: Overnight international oil prices slightly declined, with WTI down 0.31%, Brent down 0.46%, and SC up 0.47% [10] - **Basic logic**: Short - term geopolitical factors cause price fluctuations, but the core driver is the supply surplus in the off - season, and the oil price center is expected to move down [11] - **Fundamentals**: OPEC+ may increase production by 137,000 barrels per day in December. Indian imports and exports show certain changes, and US inventory data varies [12] - **Strategy**: Hold previous short positions, add short positions lightly, and focus on the range of [460 - 470] for SC [13] 3.2 LPG - **Market situation**: On October 27, the PG main contract closed at 4,260 yuan/ton, up 0.35% [16] - **Basic logic**: It follows the cost - side oil price, with short - term geopolitical risk mitigation leading to a cost - side correction [17] - **Strategy**: Try short positions lightly and focus on the range of [4250 - 4350] [18] 3.3 L - **Market situation**: The L2601 contract closed at 6,999 yuan/ton [21] - **Basic logic**: Social inventory is slightly reduced, but supply remains loose, and cost support is insufficient [22] - **Strategy**: Industries should sell hedges at high prices, and follow the cost for short - term rebounds, focusing on the range of [6900 - 7100] [22] 3.4 PP - **Market situation**: The PP2601 contract closed at 6,691 yuan/ton [26] - **Basic logic**: Spot price increase lags, demand faces de - stocking pressure, and oil - based cost support is weak [27] - **Strategy**: Industries should sell hedges at high prices, follow the cost for short - term rebounds, and focus on the range of [6600 - 6800] [27] 3.5 PVC - **Market situation**: The V2601 contract closed at 4,719 yuan/ton [30] - **Basic logic**: Low valuation supports, but single - product losses expand, and supply - demand surplus persists [31] - **Strategy**: Industries should hedge at high prices, and participate in short - term rebounds lightly, focusing on the range of [4600 - 4800] [31] 3.6 PX - **Market situation**: Futures and spot prices show certain changes [32] - **Basic logic**: Supply - side device load decreases, demand improves in the short - term but weakens in the long - term, and cost - side oil price rebound is limited [33] - **Strategy**: Take profits on short - term long positions, look for opportunities to short at high prices, and consider arbitrage by expanding downstream processing fees, focusing on the range of [6550 - 6660] [34] 3.7 PTA - **Market situation**: Futures and spot prices change, and inventory shows a decreasing trend [35] - **Basic logic**: New device production and potential maintenance relieve supply pressure, and short - term demand improves slightly [36] - **Strategy**: Lightly chase long positions, stop losses on short positions, and look for opportunities to short on rebounds in the long - term, focusing on the range of [4580 - 4660] [37] 3.8 MEG - **Market situation**: Futures and spot prices change, and inventory slightly accumulates [38] - **Basic logic**: Domestic device load decreases, overseas slightly increases, and supply pressure is expected to rise [39] - **Strategy**: Close short - term long positions, look for opportunities to short on rebounds, focusing on the range of [4070 - 4140] [40] 3.9 Methanol - **Market situation**: High inventory suppresses prices, and demand shows slight improvement [43] - **Basic logic**: Supply - side pressure remains, demand improves slightly, and cost support is weak but stable [43] - **Strategy**: Hold short positions carefully, consider long positions on the 01 contract at low prices, and focus on MA1 - 5 reverse arbitrage, focusing on the range of [2240 - 2280] [45] 3.10 Urea - **Market situation**: Futures and spot prices change, and inventory accumulates [46] - **Basic logic**: Supply is abundant, demand improves slightly, but winter demand and export incentives are limited [47] - **Strategy**: Hold short positions carefully, and consider long positions in the medium - to - long - term, focusing on the range of [1615 - 1645] [49]

| | | | | | | | | 研究中心能化团队 | | 2025/10/28 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 玻 璃 | | | | | | | | | | | | | 2025/10/17 2025/10/24 2025/10/27 周度变化 日度变化 | | | | | | | | | 2025/10/17 2025/10/24 2025/10/27 周度变化 日度变化 | | | | 沙河安全 | | | | | | | | | | | | | 5mm大 板 | 1173.0 | 1121.0 | 1121.0 | -52.0 | 0.0 | FG05合约 | 1231.0 | 1236.0 | 1246.0 | 15.0 | 10.0 | | 沙河长城 | 1156.0 | 1104.0 | 1104.0 | -52.0 | 0.0 | FG01合约 | 1095.0 | 1092.0 | 1095.0 | 0.0 | 3.0 | | 5mm大板 | | | | | | ...

纯碱玻璃产业日报 2025-10-27 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 纯碱主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 最新 1246 | 环比 数据指标 17 玻璃主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 最新 1095 | 环比 3 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 纯碱与玻璃价差(日,元/吨) | 151 | 14 纯碱主力合约持仓量(日,手) | 1387064 | -20813 | | | 玻璃主力合约持仓量(日,手) | 1807146 | 85524 纯碱前20名净持仓 | -250194 | 7848 | | 期货市场 | 玻璃前20名净持仓 | -314971 | -34188 纯碱交易所仓单(日,吨) | 8745 | -1189 | | | 玻璃交易所仓单(日,吨) | 447 | -8 纯碱基差(日,元/吨) | -49 | 16 | | | 玻璃基差 | -51 | -11 1月-5月玻璃合约 | -151 | -7 | | | 1月-5月纯碱合约 | -91 | -1 | | | | 现货市场 | 华北重碱(日,元/吨) | 1180 | 10 华中 ...

玻璃纯碱早报 研究中心能化团队 | | | | | | | | | 研究中心能化团队 | | | 2025/10/27 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | | 玻 璃 | | | | | | | | | 2025/10/17 | 2025/10/23 | | 2025/10/24 周度变化 日度变化 | | | 2025/10/17 | 2025/10/23 | | 2025/10/24 周度变化 日度变化 | | | 沙河安全5mm 大 板 | 1173.0 | 1130.0 | 1121.0 | -52.0 | -9.0 | F G 0 5合约 | 1231.0 | 1256.0 | 1236.0 | 5.0 | -20.0 | | 沙河长城 5 m m大板 | 1156.0 | 1113.0 | 1104.0 | -52.0 | -9.0 | F G 0 1合约 | 1095.0 | 1108.0 | 1092.0 | -3.0 | -16.0 | | 沙河5 m m大 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views Glass - The domestic 5mm float glass market continued its downward trend last week, with prices in various regions generally decreasing by 30 - 90 yuan/ton. The market is currently in a situation of strong supply and weak demand, with overall rising enterprise inventories, persistently sluggish downstream demand, and purchases mainly for刚需. There is a lack of substantial positive support. Affected by low - price supplies and rainy weather in some areas during the week, the trading pace further slowed down, and prices were under downward pressure. Although the increase in coal prices in the second half of the week strengthened cost support to some extent, the overall market sentiment remained bearish, and the price rebound momentum was insufficient. In the short term, the market lacks new driving factors and is expected to continue a weak and narrow - range oscillating trend. It is recommended to pay attention to the dynamic of enterprise cold repairs and the marginal changes in the expectation of the "anti - involution" policy [12][13]. Soda Ash - Last week, the prices of light and heavy soda ash in the northwest region decreased slightly. The industry supply continued to operate at a high level. Although the maintenance of individual enterprises provided some support to the local market, the overall production capacity base was large, and the supply pressure remained unchanged. There are still plans for individual devices to start up and resume production in the later stage. On the demand side, the downstream purchasing willingness is low, and they generally adopt a cautious strategy of replenishing inventory on demand and buying at low prices. Manufacturers have few new orders, and the wait - and - see sentiment is strong. Overall, the soda ash market is difficult to reverse the pattern of loose supply and demand in the short term. Prices are expected to remain stable and weak, and the trading center may further decline [56][57]. 3. Summary by Directory Glass 01. Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Price**: As of October 25, 2025, the spot market price of float glass was 1140 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 40 yuan/ton; the closing price of the glass main contract was 1092 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 3 yuan/ton; the basis was 48 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 37 yuan/ton. - **Cost and Profit**: The weekly average profit of producing float glass with natural gas as fuel was - 120.56 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 40.72 yuan/ton; the low - end price of the Henan LNG market was 4500 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 550 yuan/ton. The weekly average profit of producing float glass with coal as fuel was 113.23 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 26.44 yuan/ton; the weekly average profit of producing float glass with petroleum coke as fuel was 48.23 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 42.86 yuan/ton. - **Supply**: The weekly output of national float glass was 112.89 tons, remaining unchanged from the previous week. The number of operating production lines was 226, remaining unchanged from the previous week, and the operating rate was 76.35%. - **Demand**: The downstream deep - processing orders of float glass were 11 days, a week - on - week increase of 0.50 days; the operating rate of Low - e glass was 43.70%, remaining unchanged from the previous week. According to WIND data, from January to September 2024, the cumulative sales area of commercial housing in China was 65834.79 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 5.50%; in September, the sales area of commercial housing was 8530.87 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 11.89%. According to CAAM data, in September, the production and sales of automobiles were 327.58/322.64 million vehicles respectively, a year - on - year increase of 17.15%/14.86%; from January to September, the cumulative production and sales of automobiles were 2433.30/2436.30 million vehicles. - **Inventory**: The inventory of national float glass factories was 6661.3 million heavy boxes, a week - on - week increase of 233.74 million heavy boxes; the inventory of factories in the Shahe area was 582.8 million heavy boxes, a week - on - week increase of 60.40 million heavy boxes [12]. 02. Futures and Spot Market - **Basis**: As of October 25, 2025, the spot market price of float glass was 1140 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 40 yuan/ton; the closing price of the glass main contract was 1092 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 3 yuan/ton; the basis was 48 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 37 yuan/ton. - **Inter - month Spread**: As of October 25, 2025, the 01 - 05 spread of glass was - 149 yuan/ton (- 15), the 05 - 09 spread was - 89 yuan/ton (- 5), the 09 - 01 spread was 238 yuan/ton (+ 20), and the open interest reached 1.9129 million lots [17][20]. 03. Profit and Cost - **Profit**: The weekly average profit of producing float glass with natural gas as fuel was - 120.56 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 40.72 yuan/ton; the weekly average profit of producing float glass with coal as fuel was 113.23 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 26.44 yuan/ton; the weekly average profit of producing float glass with petroleum coke as fuel was 48.23 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 42.86 yuan/ton. - **Cost**: The low - end price of the Henan LNG market was 4500 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 550 yuan/ton [26][29]. 04. Supply and Demand - **Supply**: The weekly output of national float glass was 112.89 tons, remaining unchanged from the previous week. The number of operating production lines was 226, remaining unchanged from the previous week, and the operating rate was 76.35%. - **Demand**: The downstream deep - processing orders of float glass were 11 days, a week - on - week increase of 0.50 days; the operating rate of Low - e glass was 43.70%, remaining unchanged from the previous week. From January to September 2024, the cumulative sales area of commercial housing in China was 65834.79 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 5.50%; in September, the sales area of commercial housing was 8530.87 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 11.89%. In September, the production and sales of automobiles were 327.58/322.64 million vehicles respectively, a year - on - year increase of 17.15%/14.86%; from January to September, the cumulative production and sales of automobiles were 2433.30/2436.30 million vehicles [12][33][36]. 05. Inventory As of October 25, 2025, the inventory of national float glass factories was 6661.3 million heavy boxes, a week - on - week increase of 233.74 million heavy boxes; the inventory of factories in the Shahe area was 582.8 million heavy boxes, a week - on - week increase of 60.40 million heavy boxes [46]. Soda Ash 01. Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Price**: As of October 25, 2025, the spot market price of heavy soda ash in Shahe was 1174 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 20 yuan/ton; the closing price of the soda ash main contract was 1229 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 20 yuan/ton; the basis was - 55 yuan/ton, remaining unchanged from the previous week. - **Cost and Profit**: As of October 25, 2025, the weekly average profit of the ammonia - soda process was - 92.4 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 2.70 yuan/ton; the weekly average profit of the combined - soda process was - 199 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 31.5 yuan/ton. The price of steam coal arriving at Qinhuangdao Port was 767 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 23 yuan/ton; the low - end price of the Henan LNG market was 4500 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 550 yuan/ton. - **Supply**: As of October 25, 2025, the weekly output of soda ash was 74.06 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.01 tons, and the capacity utilization rate was 84.94%. The output of heavy soda ash was 41 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.55 tons; the output of light soda ash was 33.06 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.56 tons. - **Demand**: As of October 25, 2025, the weekly output of national float glass was 112.89 tons, remaining unchanged from the previous week. The number of operating production lines was 226, remaining unchanged from the previous week, and the operating rate was 76.35%. The apparent consumption of soda ash in August reached 3.1 million tons. - **Inventory**: As of October 25, 2025, the inventory of soda ash factories was 1.7021 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.00016 million tons; the inventory available days were 14.11 days, a week - on - week increase of 0.01 days. The inventory of heavy soda ash factories was 93.45 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.62 tons; the inventory of light soda ash factories was 76.76 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.78 tons [56]. 02. Futures and Spot Market - **Basis**: As of October 25, 2025, the spot market price of heavy soda ash in Shahe was 1174 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 20 yuan/ton; the closing price of the soda ash main contract was 1229 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 20 yuan/ton; the basis was - 55 yuan/ton, remaining unchanged from the previous week. - **Inter - month Spread**: As of October 25, 2025, the 01 - 05 spread of soda ash was - 88 yuan/ton (- 2), the 05 - 09 spread was - 59 yuan/ton (+ 6), the 09 - 01 spread was 147 yuan/ton (- 4), and the open interest reached 1.9129 million lots [61][64]. 03. Profit and Cost - **Profit**: As of October 25, 2025, the weekly average profit of the ammonia - soda process was - 92.4 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 2.70 yuan/ton; the weekly average profit of the combined - soda process was - 199 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 31.5 yuan/ton. - **Cost**: The price of steam coal arriving at Qinhuangdao Port was 767 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 23 yuan/ton; the low - end price of the Henan LNG market was 4500 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 550 yuan/ton. The price of raw salt in the northwest region was 205 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 15 yuan/ton; the price of synthetic ammonia in Shandong was 2142 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 15 yuan/ton [71][74][77]. 04. Supply and Demand - **Supply**: As of October 25, 2025, the weekly output of soda ash was 74.06 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.01 tons, and the capacity utilization rate was 84.94%. The output of heavy soda ash was 41 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.55 tons; the output of light soda ash was 33.06 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.56 tons. - **Demand**: As of October 25, 2025, the weekly output of national float glass was 112.89 tons, remaining unchanged from the previous week. The number of operating production lines was 226, remaining unchanged from the previous week, and the operating rate was 76.35%. The apparent consumption of soda ash in August reached 3.1 million tons [81][84][87]. 05. Inventory As of October 25, 2025, the inventory of soda ash factories was 1.7021 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.00016 million tons; the inventory available days were 14.11 days, a week - on - week increase of 0.01 days. The inventory of heavy soda ash factories was 93.45 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.62 tons; the inventory of light soda ash factories was 76.76 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.78 tons [91][94].

玻璃纯碱早报 | | | | | | | | | 研究中心能化团队 | | 2025/10/24 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 玻 璃 | | | | | | | | | | | | | 2025/10/16 2025/10/22 2025/10/23 周度变化 日度变化 | | | | | | | | | 2025/10/16 2025/10/22 2025/10/23 周度变化 日度变化 | | | | 沙河安全 | 1181.0 | 1143.0 | 1130.0 | -51.0 | -13.0 | FG05合约 | 1284.0 | 1241.0 | 1256.0 | -28.0 | 15.0 | | 5mm大 板 | | | | | | | | | | | | | 沙河长城 | 1160.0 | 1113.0 | 1113.0 | -47.0 | 0.0 | FG01合约 | 1147.0 | 1094.0 | 1108.0 | -39.0 | 14.0 | | 5mm大 ...

| | | | | | 纯 碱 | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 2025/10/15 2025/10/21 2025/10/22 周度变化 日度变化 | | | | | | 2025/10/15 2025/10/21 2025/10/22 周度变化 日度变化 | | | | 沙河重碱 | 1160.0 | 1150.0 | 1160.0 | 0.0 | 10.0 | SA05合 约 | 1319.0 | 1298.0 | 1308.0 | -11.0 | 10.0 | | 华中重碱 | 1170.0 | 1170.0 | 1180.0 | 10.0 | 10.0 | SA01合约 | 1232.0 | 1210.0 | 1223.0 | -9.0 | 13.0 | | 华南重碱 | 1350.0 | 1350.0 | 1350.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | SA09合约 | 1384.0 | 1361.0 | 1370.0 | -14.0 | 9.0 ...

玻璃纯碱产业风险管理日报 2025/10/22 寿佳露（投资咨询证号：Z0020569） 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 玻璃纯碱价格区间预测 | | 价格区间预测（月度） | 当前波动率（20日滚动） | 当前波动率历史百分位（3年） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 玻璃 | 1000-1300 | 33.65% | 85.5% | | 纯碱 | 1100-1400 | 21.66% | 22.9% | source： 南华研究,同花顺 玻璃纯碱套保策略表 | | 行 为 | 情景分析 | 现货敞口 | 策略推荐 | 套保工具 | 买卖方向 | 套保比例 | 建议入场区间 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 导 | | | | | | （%） | | | | 向 | | | | | | | | | | 库 | 产成品库存偏 | | 为了防止存货叠加损失，可以根据 企业的库存情况，做空玻璃期货来 锁定利润，弥补企业的生产成本 | FG2601 | 卖出 | 50% | 1250 ...

玻璃纯碱早报 | | | | | | | | | 研究中心能化团队 | | 2025/10/22 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 玻 璃 | | | | | | | | | | | | | 2025/10/14 2025/10/20 2025/10/21 周度变化 日度变化 | | | | | | | | | 2025/10/14 2025/10/20 2025/10/21 周度变化 日度变化 | | | | 沙河安全 | | | | | | | | | | | | | 5mm大 板 | 1181.0 | 1151.0 | 1143.0 | -38.0 | -8.0 | FG05合约 | 1280.0 | 1231.0 | 1236.0 | -44.0 | 5.0 | | 沙河长城 | 1164.0 | 1126.0 | 1113.0 | -51.0 | -13.0 | FG01合约 | 1138.0 | 1091.0 | 1087.0 | -51.0 | -4.0 | | 5mm大 ...

1. Glass and Soda Ash Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided. Core View - Soda ash continues to weaken, with inventory piling up in factories and mid - stream delivery warehouses. The supply is in excess compared to current demand, and without actual capacity exit or load reduction, the supply - demand situation will be further pressured. Adopt a short - selling strategy on rebounds [1]. - Glass manufacturers' sales have improved, but the deep - processing orders are still weak. In the long - term, the industry needs capacity clearance to solve the over - supply problem. Pay attention to spot purchasing rhythm, high - frequency data changes, and macro - level drivers [1]. Summary by Directory - **Prices and Spreads**: Glass prices in North China, East China, Central China, and South China decreased, with drops ranging from 0.85% to 3.28%. Soda ash prices in most regions remained stable. Glass futures prices were mostly flat or slightly down, while soda ash futures prices rose slightly [1]. - **Supply**: Soda ash production rate increased by 3.37% to 88.41%, and weekly output increased by 3.37% to 77.08 million tons. Float glass daily melting volume increased by 1.16% to 16.13 million tons, and PV daily melting volume remained unchanged [1]. - **Inventory**: Glass factory inventory increased by 5.84% to 6282.40 ten - thousand heavy boxes, and soda ash factory inventory increased by 3.74% to 165.98 million tons [1]. 2. Industrial Silicon Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided. Core View - Industrial silicon spot prices are stable, and futures prices first rose on news of a company's production cut and then fell back. In October, supply increased significantly, with a risk of inventory accumulation and price pressure. However, considering cost factors and the approaching dry season, prices may move up. The price is expected to fluctuate at a low level, mainly in the range of 8000 - 9500 yuan/ton. Consider buying at low prices if the 11 - contract price drops to 8000 - 8300 yuan/ton [2]. Summary by Directory - **Prices and Spreads**: Spot prices of most industrial silicon varieties remained unchanged, and basis differences decreased. Some monthly spreads changed significantly, such as the 2510 - 2511 spread dropping by 97.30% [2]. - **Fundamentals**: National industrial silicon production increased by 9.10% to 42.08 million tons, and Xinjiang's production increased by 19.78% to 20.32 million tons. Organic silicon DMC production decreased by 5.78%, and polysilicon production decreased by 1.29%. Recycled aluminum alloy production increased by 7.48%, and industrial silicon exports decreased by 8.36% [2]. - **Inventory**: Social inventory increased by 3.12% to 56.20 million tons, and non - warehouse receipt inventory increased by 7.15% to 31.55 million tons [2]. 3. Polysilicon Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided. Core View - Polysilicon futures prices fell after opening on Monday, possibly due to some funds taking profits. The continuous increase in polysilicon warehouse receipts pressured the November contract price. There is a risk of inventory accumulation due to increased supply. Whether the increased production can be digested by demand in the fourth - quarter peak - installation season will significantly affect prices. The price is mainly in a high - level oscillation. Pay attention to policy implementation, production control, and demand - side orders. The supply in Southwest China will decrease during the dry season, which will support prices. Guard against the risk of inventory accumulation if demand is lower than expected [4]. Summary by Directory - **Prices and Spreads**: The average price of most polysilicon and related products remained stable. The main contract price of futures decreased by 3.82% [4]. - **Fundamentals**: Weekly silicon wafer production increased by 11.85% to 14.35 GM, and monthly polysilicon production decreased by 1.29% to 13.00 million tons. Polysilicon imports increased by 28.46%, and exports decreased by 28.16% [4]. - **Inventory**: Polysilicon inventory increased by 5.42% to 25.30 million tons, and silicon wafer inventory increased by 3.16% to 17.31 GM [4]. 4. Logs Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided. Core View - The log futures market fluctuated. The 01 contract is relatively strong. With the increase in foreign quotes and port fees, there is strong cost support. During the seasonal peak season, the futures price has certain support at the bottom. The 01 contract may be treated as bullish [5]. Summary by Directory - **Prices and Spreads**: Log futures prices of different contracts decreased slightly. Spot prices of most log varieties remained unchanged [5]. - **Supply**: Monthly port shipments increased by 6.00% to 176.6 million cubic meters, and the number of ships from New Zealand to China, Japan, and South Korea increased by 4.55% [5]. - **Inventory**: National log inventory decreased by 2.34% to 292.00 million cubic meters, and the average daily log出库 volume increased by 10% to 6.32 million cubic meters [5]. 5. Natural Rubber Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided. Core View - In the short - term, the rebound in raw material prices supports rubber prices, but the expected improvement in weather in northeastern Thailand may lead to a decline in raw material prices. Demand has not improved significantly, and some enterprises are still adjusting production flexibly to control inventory. In the short - term, rubber prices may follow the macro - led market. If raw material supply is smooth, prices may decline further; if not, prices are expected to be around 15000 - 15500 yuan/ton [7]. Summary by Directory - **Prices and Spreads**: The price of Yunnan state - owned whole - latex increased by 0.35%, and the price of Thai standard mixed rubber increased by 0.69%. Some month - to - month spreads changed significantly [7]. - **Fundamentals**: Production in Thailand, Indonesia, and India in August showed different trends. Tire production and import of natural rubber increased, while tire exports decreased [7]. - **Inventory**: Bonded area inventory decreased by 4.07% to 43483 tons, and natural rubber factory - warehouse futures inventory on the SHFE decreased by 2.93% to 40119 tons [7].