Report Overview - The report is a weekly analysis of the black commodity sector, covering varieties such as rebar, hot-rolled coils, iron ore, coke, coking coal, glass, and soda ash [2] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating provided in the report 2. Report's Core View - **Long - term outlook**: For rebar and iron ore, construction site funds are improving, but the steel off - season is obvious, and the profitability of steel mills is narrowing. The supply of iron ore is loose, but iron - water production is falling. For glass and soda ash, glass inventory has stopped increasing, production has decreased, and sales are good. Soda ash supply has declined, and demand is expected to narrow [67][71] - **Short - term outlook**: Rebar and iron ore will fluctuate within a range. Glass is expected to be strong in the short - term due to cold - repair production cut expectations, while soda ash will continue to oscillate at a low level [68][72] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Black Commodity Weekly Market Review | Variety | Contract | 2025/11/21 | 2025/11/28 | Change | % Change | Spot Price | Basis (Unconverted) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Rebar | RB2601 | 3057 | 3110 | 53 | 2 | 3250 | 140 | | Hot - rolled Coil | HC2601 | 3270 | 3302 | 32 | 1 | 3290 | - 12 | | Iron Ore | I2601 | 786 | 794 | 9 | 1 | 805 | 11 | | Coke | J2601 | 1615 | 1575 | - 40 | - 2 | 1770 | 196 | | Coking Coal | JM2601 | 1103 | 1067 | - 36 | - 3 | 1510 | 443 | | Glass | FG601 | 987 | 1053 | 66 | 7 | 1090 | 37 | | Soda Ash | SA601 | 1170 | 1177 | 7 | 1 | 1261 | 84 | [3] 3.2 Rebar - **Profit**: On November 27, the blast - furnace profit of rebar was - 19 yuan/ton [7] - **Supply**: As of November 28, the blast - furnace operating rate was 81.09%, a decrease of 1.1 percentage points; the daily average pig - iron output was 2.3468 million tons, a decrease of 16,000 tons; the rebar output was 2.0608 million tons, a decrease of 18,800 tons [12] - **Demand**: In the week of November 28, the apparent consumption of rebar was 2.2794 million tons, a decrease of 28,500 tons compared with the previous week. As of November 27, the trading volume of construction steel by mainstream traders was 92,694 tons [17] - **Inventory**: In the week of November 28, the social inventory of rebar was 3.8475 million tons, a decrease of 154,500 tons; the in - plant inventory was 1.4673 million tons, a decrease of 65,900 tons [22] 3.3 Iron Ore - **Supply**: In the week of November 21, the global iron - ore shipping volume was 3.2784 million tons, a decrease of 238,000 tons; the arrival volume at 47 ports in China was 2.9395 million tons, an increase of 569,600 tons [27] - **Inventory**: In the week of November 28, the inventory of imported iron ore at 47 ports was 15.90122 million tons, an increase of 166,370 tons; the inventory of imported iron ore at 247 steel enterprises was 8.94248 million tons, a decrease of 58,750 tons [32] - **Demand**: In the week of November 28, the average daily port clearance volume of imported iron ore at 47 ports was 344,060 tons, an increase of 670 tons. As of November 27, the trading volume at major Chinese ports was 119,100 tons [37] 3.4 Float Glass - **Supply**: In the week of November 28, the number of operating float - glass production lines was 220, a decrease of 1; the weekly output was 1,103,895 tons, a decrease of 6,300 tons. As of November 27, the capacity utilization rate was 78.58%, and the operating rate was 74.32% [42] - **Inventory**: In the week of November 28, the in - plant inventory of float glass was 62.362 million weight - boxes, a decrease of 941,000 tons; the available days of in - plant inventory were 27.5 days, the same as the previous week [47] - **Demand**: In the week of November 17, the number of days of deep - processing orders from glass downstream manufacturers was 9.9 days [51] 3.5 Soda Ash - **Supply**: In the week of November 28, the capacity utilization rate of soda ash was 80.08%, a decrease of 2.6 percentage points; the output was 698,200 tons, a decrease of 22,700 tons [55] - **Inventory**: As of November 28, the in - plant inventory of soda ash was 1.5874 million tons, a decrease of 57,000 tons [60] - **Sales Ratio**: As of November 28, the sales ratio of soda ash was 108.16%, a decrease of 0.57 percentage points [64]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude Oil: Cautiously bearish [1] - LPG: Cautiously bearish [1] - L: Bearish continuation [1] - PP: Bearish continuation [1] - PVC: Bearish consolidation [1] - PX/PTA: Cautiously bullish [3] - Ethylene Glycol: Cautiously bearish [3] - Methanol: Bullish [3] - Urea: Cautiously bearish [3] - Natural Gas: Cautiously bearish [6] - Asphalt: Cautiously bearish [6] - Glass: Bearish rebound [6] - Soda Ash: Bearish consolidation [6] Report's Core Views - The market is affected by geopolitical factors such as the easing of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, and the prices of most energy and chemical products are under pressure. The supply and demand fundamentals of each product vary, and investors should pay attention to relevant factors and adopt corresponding strategies [1][3][6]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Performance**: Overnight international oil prices rebounded, with WTI rising 1.21%, Brent rising 1.20%, and SC falling 1.03% [7][8]. - **Basic Logic**: The core driver is the oversupply of crude oil in the off - season, and the short - term driver is the easing of the Russia - Ukraine conflict [9]. - **Fundamentals**: As of the week of November 26, the number of US oil rigs decreased, and Mexico's oil production declined. OPEC expects an increase in global oil demand in 2025 and 2026. US crude oil inventories increased [10]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: For the medium - to - long - term, OPEC+ is expanding production, and the oil price is in a low - price range. Technically, the short - term rebound is weak. Partially close short positions. Pay attention to the range of SC at [440 - 450] [11]. LPG - **Market Performance**: On November 26, the PG main contract closed at 4259 yuan/ton, up 0.66% [12]. - **Basic Logic**: The price is anchored to the cost of crude oil, with the cost side bearish and the demand side having some resilience. The basis is high, and the price is under pressure [13]. - **Fundamentals**: Supply decreased slightly, demand from downstream chemical industries was relatively stable, and inventories increased [13]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: In the medium - to - long - term, the supply of upstream crude oil exceeds demand, and the price of LPG still has room to decline. Technically, the short - term rebound is under pressure. Do not chase the rise, and go short on rebounds. Pay attention to the range of PG at [4200 - 4300] [14]. L - **Market Performance**: The L01 contract closed at 6707 yuan/ton, down 0.8% [17]. - **Basic Logic**: The chemical sector rebounded, but the supply was under pressure, the demand was weak, and the cost support was insufficient [19]. - **Fundamentals**: Domestic production increased seasonally, the downstream start - up rate decreased, and the oil price was expected to decline in the medium term [19]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Short - term, reduce short positions. Medium - to - long - term, wait for rebounds to go short. Pay attention to the range of L at [6750 - 6850] [19]. PP - **Market Performance**: The PP01 contract closed at 6265 yuan/ton, down 0.8% [21]. - **Basic Logic**: The fundamentals followed the cost side, with high inventory, weak demand, and the oil price still facing downward pressure [23]. - **Fundamentals**: The upstream and mid - stream inventories were high, the devices were restarting, and the external and internal demand was insufficient [23]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: At the low price level, reduce short positions in the short - term. Medium - to - long - term, wait for rebounds to go short. Pay attention to the range of PP at [6350 - 6500] [23]. PVC - **Market Performance**: The V01 contract closed at 4491 yuan/ton, down 0.1% [24]. - **Basic Logic**: The basis was repaired, the social inventory was high, the upward drive was insufficient, but the low valuation provided support [26]. - **Fundamentals**: The anti - dumping was unlikely to be implemented, and the export orders increased. The trading returned to the weak fundamentals [26]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: The market maintained a high premium. Industries should hedge at high prices. Be cautious about short - selling and wait for bullish drivers. Pay attention to the range of V at [4400 - 4550] [26]. PX/PTA - **Market Performance**: The TA05 contract closed at 4710 yuan/ton, down 34 yuan/ton [27]. - **Basic Logic**: The supply pressure was relieved, the demand was relatively good, but the cost was under pressure, and there was a risk of inventory accumulation in December [28]. - **Fundamentals**: Some devices were under maintenance, the downstream polyester and weaving start - up rates were high, and the PX price might follow the decline of crude oil [28]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: The valuation and processing fees were not high. Pay attention to the opportunity to go long on dips. Pay attention to the range of TA at [4650 - 4725] [28]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Performance**: The EG05 contract closed at 3808 yuan/ton, down 14 yuan/ton [29]. - **Basic Logic**: The domestic start - up rate decreased, the new devices were put into production, the supply pressure increased, and the demand was relatively good but the orders were weakening [30]. - **Fundamentals**: The domestic and overseas device status changed, the inventory increased slightly, and the cost was under pressure [30]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Pay attention to the opportunity to go short on rebounds. Pay attention to the range of EG at [3880 - 3930] [31]. Methanol - **Market Performance**: The main contract position decreased slightly [34]. - **Basic Logic**: The spot price in Taicang stabilized, the port basis strengthened, the inventory decreased but was still at a high level. The supply pressure was large, the demand improved, and the cost support was weak [34]. - **Fundamentals**: Domestic devices increased production, overseas devices maintained stability, downstream demand improved, and the inventory decreased [35]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Close short positions at the low - valuation level. Pay attention to the opportunity to go long on the 05 contract on dips [34]. Urea - **Market Performance**: The UR01 contract closed at 1654 yuan/ton, down 11 yuan/ton [37]. - **Basic Logic**: The supply pressure remained, the demand was mixed, the social inventory was high, and the export had been priced in. Be vigilant about the downward risk [38]. - **Fundamentals**: The supply was high, the domestic demand was weak before the year, the export was good, the inventory decreased slightly, and the cost was supported [39]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: The fundamentals are weak. Pay attention to the opportunity to go short on rebounds. Pay attention to the range of UR at [1625 - 1655] [40]. Natural Gas - **Market Performance**: On November 25, the NG main contract closed at 4.481 US dollars per million British thermal units, down 4.09% [43]. - **Basic Logic**: The easing of the Russia - Ukraine conflict led to concerns about the return of Russian gas, putting pressure on the gas price. The demand entered the peak season, providing some support [44]. - **Fundamentals**: The number of US natural gas drilling platforms increased, China's natural gas production increased, and US natural gas inventories decreased [44]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: The demand is supported in the peak season, but the supply is sufficient, and the gas price is under pressure. Pay attention to the range of NG at [4.565 - 4.800] [45]. Asphalt - **Market Performance**: On November 26, the BU main contract closed at 3043 yuan/ton, up 0.81% [47]. - **Basic Logic**: The price is mainly anchored to crude oil. Affected by the easing of the Russia - Ukraine conflict and South American geopolitics, there is still room for price compression [48]. - **Fundamentals**: The production plan decreased in December, the demand increased slightly, and the inventory decreased [48]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: The valuation is returning to normal, the supply is sufficient, and the demand is in the off - season. Hold short positions. Pay attention to the range of BU at [2950 - 3050] [49]. Glass - **Market Performance**: The FG01 contract closed at 1037 yuan/ton, up 2.3% [51]. - **Basic Logic**: The cold - repair expectation provides support, but the supply is difficult to decline further, and the demand is weak [53]. - **Fundamentals**: The daily melting volume remained stable, the real - estate market was weak, and the deep - processing orders were at a low level [53]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Close short positions in the short - term. Medium - to - long - term, go short on rebounds. Pay attention to the range of FG at [990 - 1040] [53]. Soda Ash - **Market Performance**: The SA01 contract closed at 1173 yuan/ton, down 0.8% [55]. - **Basic Logic**: The demand weakened, the supply was in a loose pattern in the medium - to - long - term, and the market was in a bearish consolidation [54]. - **Fundamentals**: Some devices were under maintenance or reduced production, the demand from the glass industry decreased, and the inventory was high [55]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold short positions on the 01 alkali - glass spread. Be cautious about short - selling at the low price level. Medium - to - long - term, go short on rebounds [55].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints - The report presents the price, production and sales, and profit data of glass and soda ash, as well as the inventory situation of soda ash upstream [2]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Glass - **Price Changes**: From November 17 to November 24, 2025, most glass prices showed a downward trend. For example, the price of 5mm large - plate glass from Shahe Anquan dropped from 1070.0 to 1044.0, a decrease of 26.0; Shahe Great Wall dropped from 1053.0 to 1019.0, a decrease of 34.0 [2]. - **Production and Sales**: Shahe's glass production and sales reached 180, Hubei's was 119, East China's was 114, and South China's was 106. Shahe's factory production and sales strengthened, while its traders' low - price shipments were average, and the spot - futures shipments were poor. Hubei's factory transactions improved, but the mid - stream spot - futures transactions weakened [2]. - **Profit**: The profits of different regions and production methods varied. For example, North China's coal - fired glass profit decreased from 102.0 to 73.3, a decrease of 28.8; South China's natural gas glass profit remained at - 188.1 [2]. Soda Ash - **Price Changes**: From November 17 to November 24, 2025, the prices of some soda ash products changed. For example, the price of Shahe heavy soda decreased from 1180.0 to 1150.0, a decrease of 30.0; the price of Qinghai heavy soda decreased from 900.0 to 870.0, a decrease of 30.0 [2]. - **Industry Situation**: The upstream inventory of the soda ash industry continued to decline, and the spot price of heavy soda in Hebei's delivery warehouse was about 1120, and about 1140 when delivered to Shahe [2].

Group 1: Report Information - Report Title: Glass and Soda Ash Morning Report [1] - Date: November 25, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Energy and Chemicals Team of the Research Center [2] Group 2: Glass Market Price Changes - From November 17 to November 24, the prices of 5mm glass in various regions showed different degrees of decline. For example, the price of 5mm glass from Shahe Anquan decreased from 1070.0 to 1044.0, a decrease of 26.0; the price of 5mm glass from Shahe Great Wall decreased from 1053.0 to 1019.0, a decrease of 34.0 [2]. - The prices of FG05, FG01 contracts and FG 1 - 5 spread also changed. The FG05 contract price decreased from 1165.0 to 1158.0, a decrease of 7.0; the FG01 contract price decreased from 1029.0 to 1013.0, a decrease of 16.0; the FG 1 - 5 spread decreased from -136.0 to -145.0, a decrease of 9.0 [2]. Profit Changes - The profits of glass production in different regions and using different energy sources also changed. For example, the profit of North China coal - fired glass decreased from 102.0 to 73.3, a decrease of 28.8; the profit of North China natural gas glass in the 05FG contract increased from -223.6 to -209.5, an increase of 14.1 [2]. Market Conditions - The production and sales of glass factories in Shahe strengthened, but the low - price sales of Shahe traders were around 1010, and the shipment was average. The transaction of glass factories in Hubei Province improved, with the price around 990. The transaction of Hubei's mid - stream futures and spot weakened [2]. - The production and sales rates of glass in different regions were: 152 in Shahe, 115 in Hubei, 110 in East China, and 103 in South China [2]. Group 3: Soda Ash Market Price Changes - From November 17 to November 24, the prices of heavy soda ash in different regions showed different trends. The price of Shahe heavy soda ash decreased from 1180.0 to 1150.0, a decrease of 30.0; the price of South China heavy soda ash remained unchanged at 1350.0 [2]. - The prices of SA05, SA01, SA09 contracts and SA01 - SA05 spread also changed. The SA05 contract price decreased from 1304.0 to 1249.0, a decrease of 55.0; the SA01 contract price decreased from 1231.0 to 1183.0, a decrease of 48.0; the SA01 - SA05 spread decreased from -73.0 to -66.0, a decrease of 7.0 [2]. Profit Changes - The profits of soda ash production in different regions and using different production methods also changed. For example, the profit of North China ammonia - soda method decreased from -288.4 to -313.4, a decrease of 25.0; the profit of North China combined - soda method decreased from -415.7 to -426.6, a decrease of 10.8 [2]. Market Conditions - The spot price of heavy soda ash in Hebei delivery warehouses was around 1130, and the price delivered to Shahe was around 1150 [2]. - The upstream inventory of the soda ash industry continued to decline [2].

游期现01-60到70，成交转好 玻璃产销：沙河80，湖北95，华东100，华南102 | | | | | | 纯 碱 | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 2025/11/14 2025/11/20 2025/11/21 周度变化 日度变化 | | | | | | 2025/11/14 2025/11/20 2025/11/21 周度变化 日度变化 | | | | 沙河重碱 | 1180.0 | 1130.0 | 1140.0 | -40.0 | 10.0 | SA05合 约 | 1301.0 | 1232.0 | 1235.0 | -66.0 | 3.0 | | 华中重碱 | 1200.0 | 1140.0 | 1150.0 | -50.0 | 10.0 | SA01合约 | 1226.0 | 1158.0 | 1170.0 | -56.0 | 12.0 | | 华南重碱 | 1350.0 | 1350.0 | 1350.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For soda ash, last week's soda ash operating rate declined slightly, with some soda ash plants having new maintenance plans, leading to a further contraction in supply. However, the enterprise shipment volume was decent, with the weekly shipment scale increasing, and the demand side did not weaken significantly, driving inventory down. In terms of profit, the on - screen profits of the dual - alkali process and the ammonia - soda process have turned negative, and coal prices remain relatively high, which may support costs. It is expected that the short - term fundamentals of soda ash have not weakened significantly, and costs may be supported, with prices fluctuating at a low level [3]. - For glass, the daily melting volume of float glass in production decreased slightly, and the operating rate declined, indicating a contraction in supply. However, the downstream demand has poor resilience, the number of days of deep - processing orders from enterprises has changed from increasing to decreasing, and the inventory of float glass enterprises has further accumulated. In contrast, the supply of photovoltaic glass is stable, but the terminal industry has entered the year - end grid - connection stage, and the purchasing demand is limited. The inventory of photovoltaic glass enterprises has accumulated for two consecutive periods. In addition, it is expected that the domestic real estate support policies may be introduced recently, which may disturb the sentiment in the glass market. It is expected that the glass fundamentals will remain weak, but the new real estate policies may boost market sentiment, and glass prices may stabilize at a low level [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Important Data Summary | Indicator | 2025/11/21 | 2025/11/14 | Change | Unit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Soda ash futures price | 1170 | 1226 | - 56.0 | Yuan/ton | | Soda ash spot price | 1140 | 1175 | - 35.0 | Yuan/ton | | Soda ash weekly output | 72.1 | 73.9 | - 1.8 | Ten thousand tons | | Soda ash shipment volume | 78.4 | 74.6 | 3.8 | Ten thousand tons | | Soda ash enterprise inventory | 164.4 | 170.7 | - 6.3 | Ten thousand tons | | Glass futures price | 987 | 1032 | - 45.0 | Yuan/ton | | Glass spot price: Shahe 5mm | 988 | 1028 | - 40.0 | Yuan/ton | | Float glass daily melting volume | 15.8 | 15.9 | - 0.1 | Ten thousand tons | | Float glass enterprise inventory | 6330.3 | 6324.7 | 5.6 | Ten thousand weight boxes | | Photovoltaic glass daily melting volume | 8.9 | 8.9 | 0.0 | Ten thousand tons | | Photovoltaic glass enterprise inventory | 29.4 | 29.1 | 0.3 | Days | [5] 3.2 Market Review - **Price**: The mainstream market price of heavy soda ash in the Shahe area dropped from 1218 yuan/ton at the beginning of last week to 1207 yuan/ton at the end of the week, a weekly decline of about 11 yuan/ton. The spot market price of 5.0mm large - plate glass in the Shahe area dropped from 1016 yuan/ton at the beginning of last week to 1000 yuan/ton at the end of the week, a weekly decline of about 16 yuan/ton [6]. - **Soda ash supply**: Last week, the total soda ash output was about 72.09 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.83 million tons; the operating rate was 83.14%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.31 percentage points. Some soda ash plants joined the maintenance queue. For example, the soda ash plant of Xiangyu Yanhua planned to reduce its load on November 18, with an expected impact period of 5 - 6 days and a total company capacity of about 1 million tons; the soda ash plant of Jiangsu Jingshen planned to reduce its operation on November 19, with an undetermined impact period and a total company capacity of about 700,000 tons. Currently, the on - screen price has fallen below the cost thresholds of the dual - alkali process and the ammonia - soda process, putting pressure on upstream profits, and the maintenance pressure may continue recently, with the supply side remaining weak [6]. - **Soda ash demand**: Last week, the daily melting volume of float glass in production was 15.81 million tons, a decrease of 0.1 million tons from the previous period; the number of production lines in operation (excluding zombie production lines) was 222, the same as the previous period. The daily melting volume of photovoltaic glass in production was 8.94 million tons, the same as the previous period; the number of production lines in operation was 403, the same as the previous period. Affected by the weakening on - screen price, the profits of glass enterprises are under pressure, and the cost support strength of the coal - fired glass process is being focused on. Since the start - stop cost of glass production lines is high, cold - repair of the supply side may release a stronger bottom signal. From the inventory perspective, the inventory of photovoltaic glass enterprises was 29.4 days, an increase of 0.32 days from the previous period. The inventory of float glass was 6330.3 million weight boxes, a month - on - month increase of 5.6 million weight boxes. Overall, the glass supply shows signs of contraction, and the drag on soda ash demand may gradually appear. The further increase in glass enterprise inventory and the weakening of deep - processing order days reflect the weak terminal demand. However, third - party institutions expect that domestic real estate support policies will be introduced recently, which may boost market sentiment. In the short term, attention should be paid to the strength of real estate policies and the progress of coal - to - gas conversion in the Shahe area, and prices are expected to fluctuate at a low level [7]. - **Soda ash inventory**: Last week, the soda ash inventory was 1.6444 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 73,000 tons. Among them, the inventory of light soda ash was 757,100 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 128,000 tons; the inventory of heavy soda ash was 887,300 tons, a month - on - month increase of 55,000 tons [7]. - **Price difference**: As of November 21, the price difference between soda ash and glass has dropped to around 200 yuan/ton and remained at a relatively low level during the reporting period. From the perspective of product fundamentals, the weak downstream pattern of glass is relatively certain, and there are no bright spots in the fundamentals. However, recent real - estate policies may boost glass prices, and there is still room for long - short games. The fundamentals of soda ash are temporarily better than those of glass, but as the scale of glass cold - repair increases, the resilience of soda ash fundamentals faces challenges. In the short term, both soda ash and glass face certain uncertainties, and the trend of the price difference is unclear, so it is advisable to wait and see [8]. 3.3 Industry News - Honglei Optics, a subsidiary of Hongtian Co., Ltd., completed the order delivery of semiconductor mask lithography machines and TGV glass substrate lithography machines. The mask direct - writing lithography machine has a minimum line - width and line - spacing resolution of 2.5μm and an alignment accuracy of ±2μm, meeting the mass - production lithography requirements of mask products with an L/S of 3μm. The other direct - writing lithography machine for the TGV glass substrate field has a minimum line - width and line - spacing resolution of 6μm and an alignment accuracy of ±4μm, meeting the production requirements of TGV glass substrates with a size of 510mm*515mm [9]. - Qibin Group has built float and photovoltaic glass production bases in Malaysia, with overseas production capacity accounting for 20%. The operation of the Shaba Guda silica sand mine and the supporting wharf has established an integrated overseas supply chain of "resources - production - sales" [9]. - The "coal - to - gas" policy is reshaping the competitive landscape of the glass industry. As an energy - intensive industry, glass production has long relied on coal as the core fuel. This transformation centered on clean - energy substitution not only triggers a structural change on the supply side but also promotes the industry's evolution from "fuel replacement" to "ecological reconstruction" and "value upgrading" [9].

Core Viewpoint - The soda ash futures market is experiencing a downward trend, with a significant decrease in prices and a mixed outlook on supply and demand dynamics [1][2][3] Market Performance - As of November 21, 2025, the main soda ash futures contract closed at 1170 CNY/ton, with a weekly decline of 4.80% [1] - The weekly trading range saw prices open at 1224 CNY/ton, reaching a high of 1236 CNY/ton and a low of 1156 CNY/ton [1] Inventory and Supply - Domestic soda ash manufacturers reported a total inventory of 1.6444 million tons as of November 20, 2025, a decrease of 62,900 tons (3.68%) from the previous week [2] - Light soda ash inventory stood at 757,100 tons, down by 43,100 tons, while heavy soda ash inventory decreased by 19,800 tons to 887,300 tons [2] - Year-on-year, total inventory has slightly decreased by 370 tons (0.23%) compared to 1.6481 million tons last year [2] Market Sentiment and Price Trends - The top 20 futures companies held a total of 973,600 long positions and 1,229,400 short positions, resulting in a long-to-short ratio of 0.79 and a net position of -255,800 contracts, indicating a bearish sentiment [2] - In the South China region, the average price for light soda ash was 1350 CNY/ton and for heavy soda ash was 1400 CNY/ton, with similar prices reported in Northeast China [2] Institutional Insights - Zhonghui Futures noted a dual reduction in supply and demand, with high factory inventories declining and production slightly decreasing due to maintenance [3] - The demand for soda ash is being negatively impacted by falling glass prices, leading to a weak market sentiment [3] - Wukuang Futures highlighted that the soda ash market lacks clear directional guidance, with expectations of continued low-price fluctuations [3]

Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint 本周玻璃观点：短线止跌 中期震荡市 | 供应 | 周内浮法玻璃产线有所变化，东北一条产线放水，无点火产线，周产量环比下降。截至20251120， 国内玻璃生产线在剔除僵尸产线后共计 | | --- | --- | | | 296条(20万吨/日），其中在产221条，冷修停产75条，截至2025年11月20日，全国浮法玻璃日产量为15.81万吨，比13日-0.66%。 | | | 截至20251117，全国深加工样本企业订单天数均值9.9天，环比-8.9%，同比-24.2%。进入11月，各大区深加工样本持有订单均值环比月初均有 | | 需求 | 下滑，订单疲软态势也导致部分加工厂出现阶段性放假现象，目前调研的深加工所持订单天数较少在2-5天居多，另有排期集中在7-15天，亦 | | | 有少数工程订单排期较长，临近年末，欠款类订单深加工签单依旧保持谨慎心态。 | | 库存 | 截止到20251120，全国浮法玻璃样本企业总库存6330.3万重箱，环比+5.6万重箱，环比+0.09%，同 ...

陈逸 （联系人） 0755-23375125 cheny40@wkqh.cn 交易咨询号：Z0023202 多重利空共振， 玻璃持续探底 玻璃周报 从业资格号：F03137504 郎志杰（黑色建材组） 从业资格号：F3030112 2025/11/22 产业链示意图 上游 天然碱矿 （天然碱法） 原盐、石灰石 （氨碱法） 原盐、合成氨 （联碱法） 燃料：动力 煤、天然气 中游 轻碱 重碱 氯化铵 下游 日用玻璃 洗涤剂 食品行业 无机盐 平板玻璃 农用氮肥 房地产——约88% 汽车——约6% 光伏——约1% 其他 目录 01 周度评估及策略推荐 04 供给及需求 02 期现市场 05 库存 03 利润及成本 周度评估及策略推荐 | 玻璃基本面评估 | 估值 | | | | 驱动 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 基差 | 成本利润 | 产量 | 需求 | 玻璃库存 | 房地产 | | 数据 | 101 | 天然气：-206.84 煤炭：25.79 石油焦：8.52 | 111.02万吨 | 深加工订单：9.9日 | 6330.3万重箱 | ...

1. Report Investment Rating No information provided regarding the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - **Long - term**: Construction site funds availability has slightly increased but remains significantly lower year - on - year. Real estate data recovery is slow. Steel mills' profitability is on the decline, and the steel fundamentals are weak, with a tendency for weak oscillations. Iron ore is under pressure due to expected supply loosening and a decline in daily hot - metal production. For glass and soda ash, glass inventory is accumulating, production is decreasing, and demand is weak. The supply of soda ash is loose, and the weak supply - demand situation is hard to change [68][72]. - **Short - term**: In the macro - policy vacuum period, the sentiment in the market is weak. The steel futures market will be in a weak oscillation, and iron ore will operate at a low level. The glass futures price is on a downward trend, dragging down the soda ash futures price, and both will be under pressure in the short term [69][73]. 3. Summary by Directory Black - series Weekly Market Review - **Futures Prices**: From November 14th to 21st, 2025, among the main futures contracts, the prices of螺纹钢,热卷, and铁矿石 increased, while those of 焦炭,焦煤, glass, and 纯碱 decreased. The price of 螺纹钢 rose from 3053 to 3057,热卷 from 3256 to 3270, and 铁矿石 from 773 to 786; 焦炭 dropped from 1670 to 1615,焦煤 from 1192 to 1103, glass from 1032 to 987, and 纯碱 from 1226 to 1170 [3]. - **Spot Prices**: The spot prices of 螺纹钢, 热卷, 铁矿石, 焦炭, 焦煤, 玻璃, and 纯碱 were 3220, 3270, 807, 1770, 1530, 1120, and 1261 respectively. The corresponding basis (unadjusted) was 163, 0, 22, 156, 427, 133, and 91 [3]. Rebar - **Profit**: On November 20th, the blast - furnace profit of rebar was - 31 yuan/ton [7]. - **Supply**: As of November 21st, the blast - furnace operating rate was 82.19%, a decrease of 0.62 percentage points. The daily average hot - metal output was 236.28 tons, a decrease of 0.6 tons, while the weekly rebar production was 207.96 tons, an increase of 7.96 tons [13]. - **Demand**: In the week of November 21st, the apparent consumption of rebar was 230.79 tons, a week - on - week increase of 14.42 tons. As of November 20th, the trading volume of construction steel by mainstream traders was 84,520 tons [18]. - **Inventory**: In the week of November 21st, the social inventory of rebar was 400.02 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 15.73 tons, and the in - plant inventory was 153.32 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 7.1 tons [23]. Iron Ore - **Supply**: In the week of November 14th, the global iron ore shipment volume was 35.164 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 4.474 million tons, and the arrival volume at 47 ports in China was 23.699 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 3.994 million tons [28]. - **Inventory**: In the week of November 21st, the inventory of imported iron ore at 47 ports was 157.3485 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.7799 million tons, and the inventory of imported iron ore at 247 steel enterprises was 90.0123 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.7478 million tons [33]. - **Demand**: In the week of November 21st, the daily average port - clearance volume of imported iron ore at 47 ports was 3.4339 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.0311 million tons. As of November 20th, the trading volume at major Chinese ports was 0.918 million tons [38]. Float Glass - **Supply**: In the week of November 21st, the number of operating float - glass production lines was 222, the same as the previous week. The weekly output was 1.110195 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 3750 tons. As of November 20th, the capacity utilization rate was 79.03%, and the operating rate was 74.66% [43]. - **Inventory**: In the week of November 21st, the in - plant inventory of float glass was 63.303 million weight - boxes, a week - on - week increase of 56,000 tons, and the available inventory days were 27.5, the same as the previous week [48]. - **Demand**: In the week of November 17th, the deep - processing order days of glass downstream manufacturers were 9.9 days [52]. Soda Ash - **Supply**: In the week of November 21st, the capacity utilization rate of soda ash was 82.68%, a decrease of 2.12 percentage points compared with the previous week, and the output was 720,900 tons, a decrease of 18,300 tons compared with the previous week [56]. - **Inventory**: As of November 21st, the in - plant inventory of soda ash was 1.6444 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 62,900 tons [61]. - **Sales Rate**: As of November 21st, the sales rate of soda ash was 108.73%, a week - on - week increase of 7.8 percentage points [65].