中央经济工作会议提出"实施新一轮重点产业链高质量发展行动""围绕发展新质生产力，推动科技 创新和产业创新深度融合"。当前，中国产业发展现状如何？围绕中央经济工作会议部署，工业领域明 年将做好哪些工作？有关部门近期进行了回应。 装备制造业占比提升 国家统计局12月15日公布的数据显示，1—11月份，全国规模以上工业增加值同比增长6.0%，高于 上年同期0.2个百分点，保持较好增长态势。 看单月数据，11月份，规模以上工业增加值同比增长4.8%，增速和上月相比保持平稳。从环比来 看，规模以上工业增加值增长0.44%，比上月加快0.27个百分点。 看行业和产品，11月份，采矿业、制造业、电力热力燃气及水生产和供应业增加值同比分别增长 6.3%、4.6%、4.3%；41个工业大类行业中30个行业增加值同比增长，增长面达73.2%；623种主要产品 中有49.8%的产品产量保持增长，和上月基本相当。 工业生产总体平稳的同时，装备制造业的发展成为一大亮点。根据国家统计局数据，11月份，规模 以上装备制造业增加值同比增长7.7%，累计增加值占全部规模以上工业比重达36.4%，较2024年全年提 高1.8个百分点，已连续33 ...

来源：人民日报海外版 作者：邱海峰 前十一月，全国规上工业增加值增长百分之六—— 工业经济转型升级持续推进(锐财经) 中央经济工作会议提出"实施新一轮重点产业链高质量发展行动""围绕发展新质生产力，推动科技创新 和产业创新深度融合"。当前，中国产业发展现状如何？围绕中央经济工作会议部署，工业领域明年将 做好哪些工作？有关部门近期进行了回应。 装备制造业占比提升 国家统计局12月15日公布的数据显示，1—11月份，全国规模以上工业增加值同比增长6.0%，高于上年 同期0.2个百分点，保持较好增长态势。 看单月数据，11月份，规模以上工业增加值同比增长4.8%，增速和上月相比保持平稳。从环比来看， 规模以上工业增加值增长0.44%，比上月加快0.27个百分点。 看行业和产品，11月份，采矿业、制造业、电力热力燃气及水生产和供应业增加值同比分别增长 6.3%、4.6%、4.3%；41个工业大类行业中30个行业增加值同比增长，增长面达73.2%；623种主要产品 中有49.8%的产品产量保持增长，和上月基本相当。 工业生产总体平稳的同时，装备制造业的发展成为一大亮点。根据国家统计局数据，11月份，规模以上 装备制造业 ...

中央经济工作会议提出"实施新一轮重点产业链高质量发展行动""围绕发展新质生产力，推动科技创新 和产业创新深度融合"。当前，中国产业发展现状如何？围绕中央经济工作会议部署，工业领域明年将 做好哪些工作？有关部门近期进行了回应。 装备制造业占比提升 国家统计局12月15日公布的数据显示，1—11月份，全国规模以上工业增加值同比增长6.0%，高于上年 同期0.2个百分点，保持较好增长态势。 "装备制造业占比持续提升，工业结构不断优化。"国家统计局工业司首席统计师孙晓说，11月份，装备 制造业中的8个行业增加值全部实现增长，其中，电子、汽车行业增速分别为9.2%、11.9%，对全部规 模以上工业增长贡献率分别达20.2%、17.9%，居工业各大类行业前两位；铁路船舶航空航天行业增长 11.9%，自2024年12月以来持续保持两位数增长。中高端装备类产品稳步发展，移动通信基站设备、动 车组、民用钢质船舶等产品产量分别增长26.5%、24.1%、18.4%。 发展新动能稳步成长 随着科技创新和产业创新加快融合，产业发展呈现越来越多新看点，发展新动能稳步成长。 高技术制造业是其一。根据国家统计局数据，11月份，规模以上高技 ...

Global Economic Outlook - The global economy is expected to grow by 3.1% in 2026, slightly down from 3.2% in 2025, indicating a continued weak recovery trend[9] - The U.S. economy is projected to grow by 2.1% in 2026, a slight increase from 2.0% in 2025, while the Eurozone and Japan are expected to see declines in growth rates[12] - The weak U.S. dollar, which fell over 8% from January to November 2025, is anticipated to continue influencing global capital reallocation in 2026[25] China Economic Growth - China's GDP is forecasted to grow by 4.7% in real terms and 4.9% in nominal terms in 2026, supported by technology and consumption sectors[1] - Fixed asset investment in China is expected to recover, with high-tech manufacturing and equipment manufacturing showing signs of improvement[31] - The retail sales of consumer goods in China grew by 4.3% year-on-year in the first ten months of 2025, indicating resilience in consumer spending[38] Asset Allocation Strategy - The recommended asset allocation for 2026 is: Stocks > Commodities > Bonds > Cash, reflecting a preference for equities amid a weak dollar environment[1] - The bond yields are expected to fluctuate within a favorable range, while commodity prices, particularly precious metals, are projected to reach new highs[1] - Currency funds are likely to focus more on liquidity safety, resembling a substitute for demand deposits in investor asset allocation[1] Risks and Uncertainties - Risks include potential underperformance of domestic policies, escalation of trade tensions, and rising fiscal security risks in major economies globally[1]

Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The economy maintained a stable state in November 2025, with obvious structural improvements, but the endogenous momentum needs to be consolidated, and the recovery trend remains to be observed. The report maintains the judgment that the economic growth rate in 2026 will still be positive, with a possible pattern of being lower in the first half and higher in the second half [4]. - In the equity market, market sentiment may continue to improve, and the market may show a volatile upward trend. In the bond market, volatility may increase, and it is not recommended to buy at the bottom in the short term. In the commodity market, the differentiation intensifies, and attention should be paid to gold, copper, and aluminum priced internationally [4]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Overview of the November 2025 Economy - The economy maintained a stable state with obvious structural improvements, including the continuous recovery of CPI, prominent economic kinetic energy switching, strengthened export competitiveness, high - level production, steady growth of industrial enterprise profits, and highlights in service consumption [5]. - The endogenous momentum needs to be consolidated, and the recovery trend remains to be observed. The "subsidy withdrawal" effect has a significant impact, economic data still needs trend improvement, the endogenous growth momentum needs to be strengthened, and real estate still has a certain drag on the economy [6]. 2. Interpretation of November 2025 Economic Sub - item Data - Manufacturing PMI increased slightly, and service PMI declined. The new order index was the main contributor to the increase in PMI. The PMI of high - tech manufacturing was above the boom - bust line. The service business activity index was below the boom - bust line for the first time since September 2024. The construction industry PMI improved [7][8]. - Fixed - asset investment continued to decline under the drag of real estate. Real estate development investment dragged down the growth rate of fixed - asset investment by 3.4 percentage points. In the future, the drag of real estate on fixed - asset investment is expected to shrink, and infrastructure investment may stabilize, while manufacturing investment should focus on emerging directions [9]. - Service consumption had highlights, while commodity consumption was highly differentiated. The total retail sales of consumer goods increased slightly. Service consumption, such as catering, maintained growth, while commodity consumption, such as automobiles and home appliances, declined due to the "subsidy withdrawal" effect [10]. - Exports showed strong resilience, with prominent structural highlights and a steady expansion of the surplus. In November, the export growth rate rebounded. The exports to Africa performed outstandingly, and the product structure was optimized. Exports are expected to be a major bright spot in the economy in 2026 [11][12]. - Real estate sales continued to bottom out. The sales area and sales volume of new commercial housing decreased year - on - year, and the market was still in the process of destocking. The prices of commercial residential buildings in large and medium - sized cities declined both month - on - month and year - on - year [13]. - The production end remained stable. In November, the added value of large - scale industrial enterprises increased year - on - year and month - on - month. The added value of the equipment manufacturing and high - tech manufacturing industries grew faster than the overall level [14]. - At the price end, CPI continued to rise, and PPI was stable and waiting to rise. In November, CPI increased year - on - year, and PPI increased month - on - month. Consumption - end prices showed a recovery trend, and production - end prices were characterized by differentiation [14]. - In November, the overall social financing was stable, and credit increased less year - on - year. Government bond financing supported the growth of social financing, while the demand of the resident sector was weak, and the demand of the enterprise sector improved marginally [18]. - The profits of industrial enterprises increased steadily. From January to October 2025, the cumulative profit growth rate of large - scale industrial enterprises increased for three consecutive months. In the future, policies are expected to promote the growth of industrial enterprise profits [19][20]. 3. Future Economic Outlook - Overseas, the main narrative is the soft landing of the economy, but there are still uncertainties in the structure. The US economy is expected to maintain a positive trend, but there are risks such as the differentiation between the real and virtual economies, the widening wealth gap, and the differentiation between AI and non - AI investments [21]. - At the domestic policy level, in 2026, the macro - policy will be more proactive. Fiscal policy will be more positive and pay attention to robustness and sustainability, and monetary policy will be moderately loose, with possible reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts [21]. - In terms of the economy, the economic growth rate in 2026 is expected to be lower in the first half and higher in the second half. The endogenous recovery momentum of domestic demand needs to be consolidated, and exports are expected to perform well [22]. 4. Investment Suggestions - Equity market: In the short term, the market may show a volatile upward trend. Investors should focus on sectors with positive event catalysts, sectors benefiting from the recovery of the equity market, sectors benefiting from the Fed's interest rate cuts, and the supplementary rise of the large - consumption sector [24]. - Bond market: The volatility of ultra - long bonds may increase, and it is not recommended to buy at the bottom in the short term. Attention should be paid to the expected term of fiscal bond issuance and the adjustment of the risk assessment indicators of large banks [25]. - Commodity market: The differentiation intensifies. For precious metals, the long - bull foundation of gold remains. For crude oil, the price trend may continue to be weak. For internationally priced non - ferrous metals, the price is in a medium - term upward channel. For commodities priced by the domestic fundamentals, the prices of relevant "anti - involution" varieties will enter a wide - range volatile trend [26].

中国经济 新亮点。 4.8% 增速和上月相比 保持平稳 2025年11月 我国工业生产稳定增长 3组数据看亮点 国务院新闻办公室12月15日举行新闻发布会,介绍 2025年11月份国民经济运行情况。国家统计局有关 负责人表示,今年以来,工业生产对推动经济稳定 发展作出了重要贡献。从11月份情况来看,我国工 业生产总体保持稳中提质发展态势。 生产保持平稳增长 11月份 规模以上工业增加值 环比增长 同比增长 7.7% 0.44% 41个大类行业中 有30个行业增加值保持同比增长 占73.2% 623种主要产品中 有49.8%产品产量保持增长 和上月基本相当 比上月加快 0.27个百分点 看）行业和产品 结构继续优化升级 工业高端化发展态势明显 11月份规模以上- 高技术制造业 装备制造业 增加值同比增长 【图解】11月我国工业生产稳定增长，3组数据看亮点→ [ 责编：杨煜 ] 8.4% 累计增加值占全部规模以上工业比重 16.9% 36.4% 中高端装备行业和产品增势较好 | 11月份 | 增加值增长 | | --- | --- | | 汽车制造业 | 11.9% | | 铁路船舶航空航天和 其他运输设备制造业 ...

Economic Overview - The national economy continues to show a stable and progressive development trend, with key indicators reflecting steady performance in production, employment, and market prices [2][4] - In November, the industrial added value of large-scale enterprises increased by 4.8% year-on-year, with the equipment manufacturing sector growing by 7.7%, contributing 59.4% to the overall industrial growth [2][3] Market Sales and Investment - Social retail sales increased by 1.3% year-on-year in November, with a cumulative growth of 4% for the first 11 months, surpassing last year's performance [3] - Fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) decreased by 2.6% year-on-year, but investment in key areas remains robust due to policies aimed at expanding domestic demand and industrial upgrades [3] Foreign Trade and Employment - In November, China's total goods import and export value rose by 4.1% year-on-year, with exports increasing by 5.7%, marking a turnaround from previous declines [3] - The urban unemployment rate remained stable at 5.1%, while the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 0.7%, indicating a gradual recovery in prices [3] New Quality Productivity - Significant progress has been made in cultivating new quality productivity, with high-tech manufacturing value added increasing by 9.2% year-on-year from January to November [5] - The digital economy is expanding, with the manufacturing value added of digital products growing by 9.3% and the production index for information transmission and software services increasing by 11.3% [5][6] Policy Support and Future Outlook - The macroeconomic policies implemented this year have played a crucial role in supporting stable economic operations, with expectations for achieving annual targets remaining positive [7] - International institutions have raised their economic growth forecasts for China in 2025, reflecting confidence in the country's economic resilience and potential [7][8]

昨日，在国新办举行的新闻发布会上，国家统计局新闻发言人、总经济师、国民经济综合统计司司长付 凌晖表示，11月份国民经济稳中有进。 "11月份我国国民经济运行呈现出生产端稳健、需求端分化的态势。"海通期货研究所宏观策略组研究员 纪丫告诉期货日报记者，11月，规上工业增加值同比增长4.8%，其中装备制造业和高技术制造业增速 显著更快，成为重要驱动力，需求侧则表现不一：市场消费维持一定韧性，社会消费品零售总额同比增 长1.3%，服务消费和线上零售增长较快，但增速仍显温和；固定资产投资维持承压态势，11月同比下 降11.5%，主要受房地产市场深度调整的拖累，房地产投资同比下跌30%。 "尽管社会消费品零售总额增速受基数影响有所波动，但升级类商品消费保持活跃，服务零售额持续较 快增长，反映消费结构优化和内需潜力释放，新质生产力培育步伐加快。"建信期货宏观研究员冯泽仁 说。 ...

Economic Overview - The national economy in November continued to show a stable and progressive development trend, supported by strong leadership and proactive macro policies [6] - The overall grain production reached 14.298 trillion jin, an increase of 1.2% year-on-year, with autumn grain production contributing significantly [1] Industrial Production - The industrial added value for large-scale enterprises grew by 4.8% year-on-year in November, with significant growth in equipment manufacturing (7.7%) and high-tech manufacturing (8.4%) [1] - The manufacturing purchasing manager index was reported at 49.2%, indicating slight improvement in business conditions [1] Service Sector - The service sector production index increased by 4.2% year-on-year in November, with notable growth in information transmission (12.9%) and financial services (5.1%) [2] - The business activity index for the service sector was at 49.5%, while the business activity expectations index was at 55.9%, indicating positive sentiment [2] Retail and Consumption - The total retail sales of consumer goods reached 43.898 billion yuan in November, a year-on-year increase of 1.3% [2] - Online retail sales amounted to 144.582 billion yuan, growing by 9.1% year-on-year, with physical goods accounting for 25.9% of total retail sales [2] Investment Trends - Fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) decreased by 2.6% year-on-year, while manufacturing investment grew by 1.9% [3] - Infrastructure investment saw a decline of 1.1%, and real estate development investment dropped significantly by 15.9% [3] Trade Performance - The total value of goods imports and exports reached 38.987 billion yuan in November, with exports growing by 5.7% and imports by 1.7% [4] - The proportion of general trade in total trade was 63.2%, indicating a shift towards more balanced trade structures [4] Employment Situation - The urban survey unemployment rate remained stable at 5.1% in November, with slight variations among different demographics [4] - The average weekly working hours for employees were reported at 48.6 hours [4] Price Trends - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 0.7% year-on-year in November, with food prices showing mixed trends [5] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) for industrial producers decreased by 2.2% year-on-year, indicating deflationary pressures in the industrial sector [5]

Economic Overview - The national economy continues to show a stable and progressive development trend, with key indicators reflecting steady performance in production, employment, and market prices [2][4] - In November, the industrial added value of large-scale enterprises increased by 4.8% year-on-year, with the equipment manufacturing sector growing by 7.7%, contributing 59.4% to the overall industrial growth [2] - The service sector's production index rose by 4.2% year-on-year in November [2] Market Sales and Investment - Social retail sales increased by 1.3% year-on-year in November, with a cumulative growth of 4% for the first 11 months, surpassing both the previous year's growth and the annual total [3] - Fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) decreased by 2.6% year-on-year, but project investment excluding real estate grew by 0.8% [3] - Despite a decline in investment growth, key sectors continue to see investment increases, supporting long-term economic development [3] Foreign Trade and Employment - In November, China's total goods import and export value grew by 4.1% year-on-year, with exports increasing by 5.7% [3] - The urban unemployment rate remained stable at 5.1%, while the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 0.7% year-on-year, marking a 0.5 percentage point increase from the previous month [3] Agricultural Production - The grain output for the year reached 1.42975 trillion jin, a 1.2% increase from the previous year, maintaining stability above 1.4 trillion jin [4] New Productive Forces - Significant progress has been made in cultivating new productive forces, with high-tech manufacturing value added increasing by 9.2% year-on-year from January to November [5] - The manufacturing of smart consumer devices grew by 7.6%, and the digital economy continues to expand, with digital product manufacturing value added increasing by 9.3% [5][6] Policy Support and Future Outlook - The economy is expected to meet annual targets despite challenges, supported by strong macro policies and the growth of new economic drivers [7] - Consumption policies have shown effectiveness, with significant year-on-year growth in retail sales of home appliances and communication equipment [7] - International institutions have raised their economic growth forecasts for China for 2025, indicating positive future expectations [7]