专题：2026年度投资策略|顶级基金公司、基金经理展望马年投资机会 跃龙在渊 进无咎——玄元投资2026年市场展望及投资策略 来源：玄元投资 作者：杨夏 各位嘉宾下午好，我是玄元投资的杨夏。很荣幸今天能和大家交流我们对明年市场的看法。我汇报的题 目是"跃龙在渊 进无咎"，这来自《易经》，行情处在现在这个位置，可进可退，"跃龙"或者"在渊"的关 键在于"进" ，进就没有问题，而这里的进就是指经济基本面要向前进。 玄元的投资框架与三类风格跟踪 我们的体系始终围绕"股价=EPS×PE"展开。A股市场有个很明显的特征，就是半年到一年的周期里，估 值（PE）的波动通常比盈利（EPS）大得多。所以我们跟踪的关键就是通过宏观流动性去判断接下来市 场更偏好哪种风格。简单来说，全市场的机会可以归纳为三类：总量风格、成长风格和主题风格。 这三类风格怎么跟踪？总量风格的核心定价因素是中美利差，因为这类资产外资参与多，他们会看国别 之间的比价。比如2021年1月我们看到中美利差和当时白马股的估值出现劈叉，就降低了配置，后来这 类资产确实经历了较长时间的调整。成长风格除了看盈利，估值也很重要，尤其是美债实际利率——它 和A股成长板块的 ...

刚刚闭幕的省委经济工作会议，总结我省今年经济工作，分析当前经济形势，并对明年经济任务作 出部署安排。我省广大干部群众深入学习会议精神，纷纷表示，要切实把思想和行动统一到党中央及省 委对形势的科学判断上来，把握关键、精准发力，高质量完成省委部署的八项重点任务，确保"十五 五"开好局、起好步。 省发展改革委党员干部表示，将认真贯彻会议精神，有力有效做好本职工作。全面落实省委"十五 五"规划建议，立足辽宁实际，编制实施好"十五五"规划。加强经济监测预警分析，做好政策衔接、工 作衔接，加快制定出台促进经济高质量发展的政策措施。全力以赴打好扩大有效投资翻身仗，把投资于 物和投资于人紧密结合起来，加强项目储备论证，谋划实施一批发展所需、地方所能、群众所盼的高质 量项目。因地制宜发展新质生产力，推动六方面十二大领域"人工智能+"行动，完善低空经济产业生 态，开展服务业提质扩能行动。用改革的理念优化营商环境，加快出台优化营商环境行动方案，推动全 省经济实现质的有效提升和量的合理增长。 全省工信系统广大干部表示，将全面落实会议精神，锚定实现新型工业化这个关键任务，统筹传统 产业转型升级和战略性新兴产业培育壮大，着力构建具有辽宁 ...

日前召开的中央经济工作会议将"必须以苦练内功来应对外部挑战"，作为新形势下做好经济工作新的认 识和体会之一，为我们做好明年的经济工作提供了重要遵循和行动指引。 放眼世界，百年变局加速演进，国际上单边主义、保护主义抬头，国际经济贸易秩序遇到严峻挑战，世 界经济增长动能不足。大国博弈更加复杂激烈，我国发展的外部环境压力增大，不确定、难预料因素增 多。必须苦练内功，以自身发展的确定性应对外部环境的不确定性，这既是大国发展的历史逻辑，也是 引领未来变革、在国际竞争与合作中掌握主动权和制高点的必然选择。 做强做优做大实体经济，增强自身实力。坚定不移实施制造强国战略，保持制造业合理比重，发展先进 制造业，构建以先进制造业为骨干的现代化产业体系。把握住新一轮科技革命和产业变革机遇，着力将 新能源、新材料、航空航天、低空经济等打造成为新兴支柱产业，加快建设现代化产业体系。前瞻布局 未来产业，推动量子科技、生物制造、氢能和核聚变能、脑机接口等成为新的经济增长点。优化提升传 统产业，通过锻长板、补短板、抓赋能、树品牌，加快传统产业转型升级。 从国内看，我国经济运行中的困难挑战仍然不少，供强需弱矛盾突出，重点领域风险隐患较多。这些 ...

Core Viewpoint - The investment outlook for the A-share market in 2026 highlights the integration of policy dividends and industrial opportunities, with a focus on two main lines and two auxiliary lines [1] Group 1: Main Lines of Investment - Main Line 1: The unprecedented global changes are accelerating, with a shift in domestic economic logic towards new productive forces, emphasizing key areas such as artificial intelligence, embodied intelligence, new energy, controllable nuclear fusion, quantum technology, and aerospace [1] - Main Line 2: The gradual implementation of anti-involution policies, combined with supply-demand structure optimization and price recovery expectations, is expected to lead to a clear profit recovery path in the manufacturing and resource sectors [1] Group 2: Investment Environment for 2026 - Overseas Perspective: The Trump administration may refocus on economic growth amid midterm election pressures, with a cooling labor market and persistent inflationary pressures in the U.S. The Federal Reserve is expected to remain in a rate-cutting cycle throughout 2026, with higher expectations for cuts in the second half of the year [2] - Domestic Perspective: China's macro policies are anticipated to maintain continuity and stability, with resilient economic growth and inflation expected to recover from low levels under the influence of expanding domestic demand and anti-involution policies [2] Group 3: Market Sentiment and Trends - The beginning of the "14th Five-Year Plan" is expected to strengthen reform policy expectations, with supportive price factors like the upward trend of the RMB exchange rate enhancing liquidity and boosting market confidence [3] - A-share valuations are currently in a relatively reasonable range, and the improvement in the fundamentals of listed companies is expected to become a key focus for the market in 2026, driven by the deepening of economic transformation and the continuous development of emerging industries [3] Group 4: Style Judgments - Small-cap stocks are expected to perform well, particularly in the first three quarters of 2026, as the Fed's rate cuts and the upward trend of emerging industries enhance market risk appetite [4] - Growth stocks are projected to continue leading in earnings growth compared to value stocks, with favorable conditions for equity asset valuations due to anticipated Fed rate cuts [4]

Core Viewpoint - The core focus of the article is on the "15th Five-Year Plan" which emphasizes high-quality development as the central theme for China's economic and social development in the upcoming five years, building on the previous "14th Five-Year Plan" [1][2]. Economic Development Strategy - The "15th Five-Year Plan" outlines seven strategic tasks aimed at promoting sustained and healthy economic development, which include building a modern industrial system, enhancing technological self-reliance, and optimizing regional economic layouts [2][3]. - The plan stresses the importance of economic construction as a priority, reflecting the party's long-standing commitment to economic development [3]. Technological Innovation - The plan prioritizes the establishment of a modern industrial system and emphasizes the need for innovation in key technologies to overcome reliance on external sources [4][5]. - It aims to foster new pillar industries, particularly in sectors like renewable energy, aerospace, and advanced materials, to drive economic growth [3][4]. Financial Support and Policy - Financial systems are urged to enhance support for major strategic areas and weak links, with a focus on providing comprehensive financial services for technological innovation [2]. - The government plans to optimize fiscal resource allocation to ensure effective use of funds in high-quality development areas [2][7]. Market and Economic Structure - The plan emphasizes the construction of a strong domestic market and the need to break down barriers to create a unified national market [6][8]. - It calls for the enhancement of the socialist market economy to ensure sustainable high-quality development [6]. Agricultural and Rural Development - The plan highlights the importance of modernizing agriculture and rural areas, ensuring that rural populations benefit from modernization efforts [9]. - It aims to establish mechanisms to prevent poverty and ensure sustainable development in rural regions [9]. Regional Coordination - The plan includes measures to promote regional coordinated development, emphasizing infrastructure connectivity and collaboration across administrative boundaries [10]. - It aims to create a framework for sustainable cooperation among different regions to leverage their respective advantages [10].

Core Viewpoint - The 15th Five-Year Plan emphasizes the importance of technological self-reliance and innovation as key drivers for China's economic and social development, aiming to enhance the overall effectiveness of the national innovation system and promote high-quality development [2][4]. Group 1: Technological Innovation - The 15th Five-Year Plan aims to significantly improve the level of technological self-reliance and innovation, focusing on breakthroughs in key core technologies such as integrated circuits, advanced materials, and biomanufacturing [3][5]. - There is a strong emphasis on the integration of technological innovation and industrial innovation, with a call for a new type of national system to support decisive breakthroughs in critical areas [3][6]. - The plan highlights the need for a coordinated approach to education, technology, and talent development, fostering a robust ecosystem for innovation [4][6]. Group 2: Future Industries - The plan outlines the necessity to cultivate and expand emerging and future industries, including renewable energy, aerospace, and quantum technology, to drive economic growth [5][6]. - It advocates for the implementation of large-scale application demonstration actions for new technologies and products, aiming to accelerate the development of emerging industries [5]. - The exploration of diverse technological routes and viable business models is essential for positioning future industries as new economic growth points [5][6]. Group 3: Talent Development - The 15th Five-Year Plan emphasizes the importance of nurturing top-tier innovative talent and establishing a global influence in education and scientific research [4]. - It calls for a comprehensive mechanism to promote the development of education, technology, and talent, ensuring a synergistic relationship between technological innovation and talent cultivation [4]. - The plan aims to optimize the talent structure and promote regional coordination in talent development, addressing the need for strategic scientists and skilled professionals [4].

Core Viewpoint - The "15th Five-Year Plan" outlines a strategic direction for China's economic and social development, emphasizing long-term stability and growth in the capital market, with a focus on digital technology, space economy, high-end manufacturing, domestic consumption, and biotechnology [1][25]. Macro Environment - The "15th Five-Year Plan" is positioned as a crucial phase in achieving socialist modernization by 2035, with a target of doubling GDP per capita compared to 2020 levels, necessitating an average annual GDP growth rate of approximately 4.4% from 2026 to 2035 [2][3]. Key Changes in Development Environment - Significant changes from the "14th Five-Year Plan" include advancements in technological innovation, adjustments in financial cycles, and increased geopolitical tensions, leading to a greater emphasis on domestic demand and a more confident approach to opening up [3][4]. Industrial and Technological Focus - The plan prioritizes the construction of a modern industrial system, enhancing efficiency and security in supply chains, and emphasizes the importance of traditional industries while fostering emerging sectors such as renewable energy and quantum technology [4][5][20]. Consumer and Demand-Side Policies - The plan aims to boost consumer spending through supply-side and demand-side measures, including improving the quality of consumer goods and services, enhancing employment and income distribution, and removing unreasonable consumption restrictions [7][9][10]. Open Economy Strategy - The "15th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes proactive and autonomous opening up, with a focus on expanding market access, promoting balanced trade development, and enhancing financial openness to improve China's position in the global financial system [11][12][13]. Green Transition and Carbon Goals - The plan identifies the "15th Five-Year Plan" period as critical for achieving carbon peak goals, with a focus on controlling coal and oil consumption, implementing dual control of carbon emissions, and promoting green consumption [15][16][20]. Fiscal and Tax Reforms - Fiscal reforms during the "15th Five-Year Plan" will focus on enhancing sustainability and the effectiveness of active fiscal policies, with an emphasis on improving the tax system and increasing public service spending to support consumption [17][18][22]. Capital Market Outlook - The capital market is expected to exhibit a "long-term" and "steady" trend during the "15th Five-Year Plan," supported by government emphasis on market development and favorable economic conditions [25][26]. Investment Opportunities - Key sectors for investment during the "15th Five-Year Plan" include digital technology, space economy, high-end manufacturing, domestic consumption, and biotechnology, with specific focus areas such as AI, 6G, and innovative healthcare solutions [26].

Macro Perspective - The "15th Five-Year Plan" serves as a crucial transitional phase towards achieving the 2035 modernization goals, with a target GDP growth rate of approximately 4.4% annually from 2026 to 2035 to double the economic output compared to 2020 levels [3][4] - The new environment presents several changes, including breakthroughs in technological innovation, a downward adjustment in financial cycles, and increased geopolitical conflicts, necessitating a focus on supply-side optimization and domestic demand [4][5] Technological Innovation and Industrial Development - The construction of a modern industrial system is emphasized as the material and technical foundation for Chinese-style modernization, with a focus on enhancing efficiency and security within the industrial chain [5][6] - The plan highlights the importance of traditional industries while also fostering emerging sectors such as new energy, aerospace, and advanced manufacturing, with specific attention to future industries like quantum technology and hydrogen energy [6][7] Domestic Demand and Consumption - The plan aims to significantly increase the resident consumption rate, focusing on both supply-side and demand-side measures to stimulate consumption [9][10] - Key policies include improving the consumption system, enhancing infrastructure for consumer services, and expanding the supply of quality consumer goods and services [9][10] Open Economy and International Cooperation - The "15th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes a more proactive and autonomous approach to opening up the economy, with a focus on expanding market access and promoting balanced trade development [12][13] - Financial openness is highlighted as a critical area, with a goal to enhance the international status of the Chinese currency and improve the capital account [13][14] Green Transition and Carbon Neutrality - The plan identifies the "15th Five-Year Plan" period as critical for achieving carbon peak goals, with a focus on controlling coal and oil consumption and implementing a dual control system for carbon emissions [16][17] - The expansion of the national carbon market and promotion of green consumption are also key components of the strategy [17][18] Fiscal and Tax Reforms - Fiscal reforms during the "15th Five-Year Plan" will focus on enhancing sustainability and the effectiveness of active fiscal policies, including optimizing the tax structure and increasing public service spending [18][19] - The plan aims to improve the social security system and reduce reliance on general budget subsidies, thereby enhancing fiscal sustainability [19][20] Capital Market Outlook - The capital market is expected to exhibit a "long-term" and "steady" trend during the "15th Five-Year Plan," supported by government emphasis on market development and favorable economic conditions [37] - Key sectors to watch include digital technology, high-end manufacturing, and consumer sectors, with a focus on innovation and quality upgrades [38]

新华社记者 齐中熙 魏玉坤 10月20日至23日，党的二十届四中全会在北京召开。全会审议通过了《中共中央关于制定国民经济和社 会发展第十五个五年规划的建议》。 10月24日，中共中央举行新闻发布会，介绍和解读党的二十届四中全会精神。 全会最重要的成果，是审议通过了《中共中央关于制定国民经济和社会发展第十五个五年规划的建议》 中央政策研究室主任江金权介绍说，全会最重要的成果，是审议通过了《中共中央关于制定国民经济和 社会发展第十五个五年规划的建议》。《建议》的起草是在党中央领导下进行的。习近平总书记亲自担 任文件起草组组长，亲自擘画、全程指导、把脉定向，发挥了决定性作用。 江金权说，"十四五"时期是开启全面建设社会主义现代化国家新征程的第一个五年，发展历程极不寻 常、极不平凡。以习近平同志为核心的党中央团结带领全党全国各族人民，迎难而上、砥砺前行，经受 住世纪疫情严重冲击，有效应对一系列重大风险挑战，推动党和国家事业取得新的重大成就。制定"十 五五"规划建议，系统谋划"十五五"时期经济社会发展，是实现党的二十大描绘的宏伟蓝图、分阶段有 步骤推进中国式现代化的需要，是有效应对复杂严峻的外部环境新变化、在激烈国际竞 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the past 3 weeks, nearly 100 new ETF products have been issued in the US, and the issuance speed has further increased. The richness of digital currency - related products has been enhanced, and new products with various strategies have emerged [3][6]. - The capital inflow of US ETFs has remained at a high level. In the past month, nearly $180 billion has flowed in, with over $100 billion into stock products. The iShares S&P 500 ETF IVV has seen significant inflows, and bitcoin and gold products have obvious inflows [3][15]. - Aerospace and defense ETFs in the US have performed well, with some technology - related and European - themed products having涨幅超过 80% [3][19]. - In August 2025, the total amount of non - money public funds in the US increased by $0.41 trillion compared to July. The redemption pressure of domestic stock - type products has eased, and the outflow of domestic stock funds in the past 4 weeks has been relatively stable, while the inflow of bond products has been steady [3][20]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 US ETF Innovation Products: Nearly 100 Products Issued in 3 Weeks - In the past 3 weeks, 91 new products have been issued in the US. Single - stock leveraged reverse products, single - stock option + leverage strategy products, and digital currency - related products have been enriched. There are also new innovations in structured product strategies [6][8][9]. - For example, Rayliant and ChinaAMC issued the China Technology Innovation ETF, tracking an index composed of about 100 Chinese technology - related companies [13]. 3.2 US ETF Dynamics 3.2.1 US ETF Funds: Capital Inflows Remain at a High Level - In the past month, the total inflow of US ETFs was nearly $180 billion, with over $100 billion into stock products. The iShares S&P 500 ETF IVV had inflows of over $40 billion in the past month, surpassing SPY in scale. Bitcoin and gold products had obvious inflows, while many leveraged products had large outflows [3][15][17]. - The daily capital flows of major US ETFs in the past 2 weeks are presented, and the capital flows of iShares products have tended to be stable, while those of State Street products have fluctuated greatly [18]. 3.2.2 US ETF Performance: Aerospace and Defense ETFs Perform Well - Due to the complex global situation this year, aerospace and defense ETFs listed in the US have performed well. Products such as SHLD related to technology and European - themed products have涨幅超过 80% [3][19][20]. 3.3 Recent Capital Flows of US Ordinary Public Funds - In August 2025, the total amount of non - money public funds in the US was $22.98 trillion, an increase of $0.41 trillion compared to July. The scale of domestic stock - type products increased by 1.62%, and the redemption pressure eased [20]. - In the past 4 weeks, the outflow level of US domestic stock funds has been relatively stable, with outflows exceeding $20 billion in 3 weeks, while the inflow of bond products has been stable [20][21].