Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View Policy expectations and exports are expected to provide short - term support to the urea market, but high supply and weak demand will limit the upside potential. The urea futures are likely to remain in a volatile pattern. Market participants should monitor production costs and the progress of autumn stockpiling [4][5]. 3. Summary by Category Fundamental Analysis - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology is promoting the elimination of outdated production capacity in key industries. The proportion of fixed - bed processes in the urea industry has dropped to 10%, increasing the expectation of a marginal contraction in supply [4]. - Export orders are being continuously fulfilled. Enterprise inventories have decreased by 7.46% week - on - week to 895,500 tons, while port inventories have increased to 541,000 tons, alleviating domestic supply pressure [4]. - The top - dressing of northern corn is mostly completed, leading to weak agricultural demand. The incremental demand for autumn stockpiling of compound fertilizers is limited, and industrial demand is mainly for essential purchases [4]. - Although the daily production has slightly decreased to 196,100 tons, it is still higher year - on - year. With the addition of new production capacity, the pattern of loose supply remains unchanged [4]. Data Presentation The report presents a series of data related to the urea industry, including historical data on enterprise and port inventories, futures trading volume and open interest, spot prices, production costs, production profits, capacity utilization rates, and export prices, as well as data on related industries such as compound fertilizers and the power coal market [7][10][17][28][38][43]

Core Viewpoint - The urea market is expected to experience a downward price trend in the second half of 2025 due to seasonal demand fluctuations, high inventory levels, and ongoing supply pressures, despite potential short-term rebounds in August and September driven by agricultural demand and export activities [1][13]. Production Capacity and Profitability - In the first half of 2025, the urea industry added 3.51% in production capacity, totaling 309 million tons, with a theoretical capacity increase from 76.7 million tons to 79.39 million tons [2]. - The industry is projected to add another 292 million tons of capacity in the second half of 2025, leading to a total capacity increase of 7.31% for the year [2]. - The profitability of urea production is under pressure, with costs primarily driven by coal and natural gas prices, which account for about 70% of total production costs [2][3]. Cost Analysis - As of June 2025, the production costs for urea varied by production method, with natural gas-based urea costing 1971 CNY/ton, fixed bed process at 1917 CNY/ton, and fluidized bed process at 1478 CNY/ton [3]. - Profit margins for different production methods showed significant variation, with fixed bed and fluidized bed processes experiencing improved margins, while natural gas-based production faced losses [3]. Market Demand Dynamics - Agricultural demand for urea is expected to decline in July due to the seasonal off-peak period, with a potential rebound in August and September driven by fall fertilization and export activities [1][7]. - The overall agricultural demand is supported by the ongoing construction of high-standard farmland, which is projected to increase urea consumption [7][8]. - Industrial demand for urea, particularly from melamine and urea-formaldehyde resin sectors, remains stagnant due to weak real estate market conditions and export challenges [9]. Inventory and Export Policies - Urea port inventories have been rising since May 2025, with expectations of continued accumulation in the third quarter, influenced by export policies and market conditions [10][11]. - The export policy for urea has been clarified, with a total export quota of 2 million tons set for May to October 2025, which may help alleviate some supply pressures [11][12]. Seasonal Trends and Future Outlook - The second half of 2025 is characterized by seasonal demand fluctuations, with expectations of lower production utilization rates due to the agricultural off-season and potential winter heating demands impacting natural gas supply [6][12]. - Overall, the urea market is anticipated to remain oversupplied, with price pressures expected to persist unless significant changes occur in export policies or seasonal storage strategies [13].

Core Viewpoint - The legal opinion letter from Shanghai Jintiancheng Law Firm confirms that the convening and holding of the second extraordinary general meeting of shareholders for Xinyangfeng Agricultural Technology Co., Ltd. complies with relevant laws and regulations, ensuring the legality and validity of the meeting and its resolutions [2][8]. Group 1: Meeting Procedures - The meeting was convened based on the resolution of the company's ninth board of directors and was announced on July 12, 2025, in accordance with the company's articles of association [3][4]. - The meeting was held on July 29, 2025, at 2:00 PM at the Yangfeng Training Center in Jingmen City, combining on-site voting and online voting [4][5]. Group 2: Attendance and Qualifications - A total of 10 shareholders attended the on-site meeting, representing 699,575,894 shares, which is 55.7549% of the total voting shares [5][6]. - 362 shareholders participated in the online voting, with 366 small investors attending the meeting, representing 182,168,796 shares, or 14.5185% of the total voting shares [6][7]. Group 3: Voting Results - The meeting's resolutions were approved with 871,999,553 votes in favor, accounting for 99.9929% of the valid votes cast [7]. - Small investors voted 181,634,797 shares in favor, representing 99.7069% of the valid votes from small investors [7]. Group 4: Conclusion - The legal opinion concludes that all aspects of the meeting, including the convening, attendance, and voting procedures, comply with the Company Law and relevant regulations, confirming the legality and validity of the meeting's resolutions [8].

1、期货市场：尿素期货宽幅震荡为主，最终报收 1744（-1/-0.06%）。 2、现货市场：出厂价延续跌势，成交一般，河南出厂报 1700-1720 元/吨，山东小 颗粒出厂报 1700-1720 元/吨，河北小颗粒出厂 1720-1730 元/吨，山西中小颗粒出厂报 1650-1670 元/吨，安徽小颗粒出厂报 1730-1750 元/吨，内蒙出厂报 1580-1630 元/吨。 【重要资讯】 大宗商品研究 能源化工研发报告 尿素日报 2025 年 7 月 29 日 尿素日报 【市场回顾】 【尿素】7 月 29 日，尿素行业日产 19.47 万吨，较上一工作日持平；较去年同期增 加 1.86 万吨；今日开工 84.08%，较去年同期 79.85%提升 4.23%。 【逻辑分析】 今日，市场情绪表现一般，主流地区尿素现货出厂报价连续下跌，成交乏力。山东 地区主流出厂报价领跌，市场情绪表现一般，工业复合肥开工率略有提升，原料库存充 裕，成品库存偏高，基层订单稀少，刚需补货为主，农业刚需采购，贸易商出货，新单 成交转弱，待发告罄，预计出厂报价继续下跌为主；河南地区市场情绪偏低，出厂报价 暂稳，贸易商观望，收单量 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - Urea futures opened low and moved high, closing down at the end of the session. The weak futures market affected the spot sentiment, with upstream factories having poor sales and prices showing a downward trend. The supply is sufficient, and although some enterprises plan to conduct maintenance in August, the daily output remains high. The demand in the main delivery areas has weakened, and the domestic demand has declined. Despite the support of export containerization, the inventory reduction rate has slowed down, indicating weak terminal demand. The current market is bearish, but there is still a possibility of a rebound. Overall, the market remains in a weak and volatile state [1] Summary by Related Catalogs Strategy Analysis - The urea futures market was weak, affecting the spot market. Supply is ample, and although there will be maintenance in August, the daily output stays high. The demand in the main delivery areas has weakened, and domestic demand is sluggish. The market is currently bearish but may rebound, remaining weak and volatile [1] Futures and Spot Market Conditions - **Futures**: The main urea 2509 contract opened at 1730 yuan/ton, moved high, and closed down at 1744 yuan/ton, with a decline of -0.06%. The trading volume was 152,980 lots (-144 lots). Among the top 20 major positions, long positions increased by 1,701 lots, and short positions increased by 3,744 lots [2] - **Spot**: The weak futures market affected the spot sentiment, with upstream factories having poor sales and prices showing a downward trend. The mainstream ex - factory prices of small - granular urea in Shandong, Henan, and Hebei ranged from 1700 - 1750 yuan/ton, and the transaction center continued to move down [4] Fundamental Tracking - **Basis**: Based on Shandong, the basis weakened compared to the previous trading day, with the September contract basis at 26 yuan/ton (-26 yuan/ton) [8] - **Supply Data**: On July 29, 2025, the national daily urea output was 193,700 tons, unchanged from the previous day, and the operating rate was 82.47% [11]

格隆汇7月29日丨中国心连心化肥(01866.HK)宣布，公司将于2025年8月8日（星期五）举行董事会会 议，其中议程包括考虑及批准刊发公司及其附属公司截至2025年6月30日止六个月的综合中期业绩公告 于香港联交所网站。 ...

Report Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral; - Inter - period: 09 - 01 reverse spread; - Inter - variety: None [3] Core View - Previously, the urea market was affected by macro - policies such as anti - involution and elimination of backward production capacity, with positive sentiment. However, the market sentiment declined, and the macro - atmosphere changed, leading to a decline in the urea futures market. - Urea production is at a high level, with sufficient supply. Agricultural demand is ending, and industrial demand is in the off - season. There are no bright spots on the demand side. - The company's inventory is still in the destocking cycle, but the destocking rate has slowed down, and the total inventory has accumulated significantly compared with the same period in previous years. Urea exports are restricted, and the overall port inventory has changed little [2] Summary by Directory 1. Urea Basis Structure - On July 28, 2025, the closing price of the urea main contract was 1738 yuan/ton (- 65). The ex - factory price of small - sized urea in Henan was 1790 yuan/ton (0), in Shandong was 1780 yuan/ton (- 10), and in Jiangsu was 1800 yuan/ton (- 10). The Shandong basis was 42 yuan/ton (+ 55), the Henan basis was 52 yuan/ton (+ 45), and the Jiangsu basis was 62 yuan/ton (+ 55) [1] 2. Urea Output - As of July 28, 2025, the enterprise capacity utilization rate was 83.59% (0.08%). Newly added urea production devices are gradually put into operation, and the output remains high [1][2] 3. Urea Production Profit and Operating Rate - As of July 28, 2025, the urea production profit was 250 yuan/ton (- 10). The overall operating rate of urea is at a high level [1][2] 4. Urea FOB Price and Export Profit - As of July 28, 2025, the urea export profit was 1037 yuan/ton (- 46). Urea exports are restricted, and the second batch of export quotas is progressing slowly [1][2] 5. Urea Downstream Operating Rate and Orders - As of July 28, 2025, the compound fertilizer capacity utilization rate was 33.58% (+ 1.03%); the melamine capacity utilization rate was 65.20% (+ 0.96%); the pre - received order days of urea enterprises were 5.94 days (- 0.12). Agricultural demand is ending, industrial demand is in the off - season, and the start - up of autumn compound fertilizer production has been slow to increase [1][2] 6. Urea Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - As of July 28, 2025, the total inventory of sample enterprises was 85.88 million tons (- 3.67), and the port sample inventory was 54.30 million tons (+ 0.20). The enterprise inventory is still in the destocking cycle, but the destocking rate has slowed down, and the total inventory has accumulated significantly compared with the same period in previous years [1][2]

Core Viewpoint - The 2024 Central Document emphasizes "ensuring national food security" as a priority, highlighting the importance of urea supply for the food safety of 1.4 billion people [1] Group 1: Fertilizer Supply and Price Stability - Urea, accounting for over 60% of nitrogen fertilizer usage in China, significantly contributes to food production, with its price stability directly affecting farmers' costs and national food security [2] - The traditional storage system faces challenges such as "off-season price increases and peak-season price drops," leading to financial pressure on storage enterprises and limited market regulation capabilities [2] - The introduction of urea futures and the "Worry-Free Storage" pilot project aims to enhance risk management and support the supply and price stability strategy [2][6] Group 2: Collaboration and Risk Management - The collaboration between the futures company and Yitong Data demonstrates a commitment to enhancing risk management capabilities and facilitating the transition from "participants" to "communicators" in the futures market [3][7] - The "Worry-Free Storage" project encourages storage enterprises to use urea futures to hedge against price fluctuations, providing essential support for the national supply and price stability strategy [6][8] - The futures company actively engages with enterprises to improve their understanding of futures tools, thereby enhancing their risk management capabilities and encouraging proactive participation in the futures market [7][8] Group 3: Supporting Spring Farming - The establishment of pre-storage centers in major agricultural production areas aims to ensure timely supply of fertilizers during the spring farming peak, addressing logistical challenges and reducing distribution costs [5] - The "Guarantee Supply and Price Stability" initiative includes activities such as efficient delivery of agricultural inputs and financial services to support farmers' needs during the spring farming season [4][5]

Core Insights - The training program aims to enhance risk management capabilities of enterprises in Inner Mongolia, particularly in coal chemical and soft commodity industries, by utilizing the futures market [1] - The participation rate of listed companies in hedging activities has steadily increased, with 1,503 companies announcing hedging plans in 2024, representing a participation rate of 28.6% [1][2] - The volatility in commodity prices and intense industry competition are driving companies to improve their risk management strategies [2] Group 1: Training and Participation - The training session was attended by nearly a hundred representatives from state-owned enterprises and listed companies in Inner Mongolia, focusing on practical paths for utilizing the futures market for risk management [1] - Companies like Huayou Cobalt, Yuntianhua, and COFCO have integrated futures tools into their overall development strategies, establishing mature risk management models [1][2] - The number of industry clients participating in trading specific commodities, such as soybean meal and glass, has increased by over 20% in 2024 [1] Group 2: Industry Challenges and Solutions - Companies in sectors like chemicals, grain and oil, and livestock often operate near breakeven points, making raw material cost management critical for survival [2] - Sichuan Agricultural Fertilizer Co. has successfully implemented hedging strategies, achieving a profit of 50 yuan per ton through futures contracts [2] - The "five-in-one" methodology for integrating business and finance in hedging practices was proposed to address challenges in applying hedge accounting [3] Group 3: Market and Regulatory Environment - The futures market is recognized as a professional platform for risk management, with a comprehensive system of commodity futures and options covering key sectors of the economy [4] - Inner Mongolia has 29 listed companies with a total market capitalization of 786.88 billion yuan, but only 6 companies, or 20.69%, are engaged in hedging activities, which is below the national average [4] - Local regulatory bodies are working with exchanges to enhance the utilization of futures tools among enterprises to promote high-quality development of the capital market [4] Group 4: Feedback and Future Directions - Attendees expressed that the training deepened their understanding of the futures market's functions and they plan to explore hedging models tailored to their business needs [5]

印度前5月尿素进口量增加，为何印度化肥短缺警报仍未解除？在旺季需求高涨的背景下，尿素市场离 新一轮上涨还有多远？ 期货盯盘神器专属文章 相关链接 ...