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北大教授林宙辰:目前所有AI企业没有一家能盈利,Open AI也亏钱
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2026-01-13 08:41
新浪声明:所有会议实录均为现场速记整理,未经演讲者审阅,新浪网登载此文出于传递更多信息之目 的,并不意味着赞同其观点或证实其描述。 责任编辑:李思阳 专题:第50届清华大学中国与世界经济论坛 第50届清华大学中国与世界经济论坛于1月13日在线上播出。北京大学智能学院教授林宙辰 表示,目前 所有的AI企业没有一家能盈利的,即使像Open AI,别看它每年营收100多亿美元,但是它投入更多, 它也是亏钱的。 "所以,我认为他们很快就会不可持续的,Open AI能不能挺过2026年,都是一个问题。而中国非常务 实,国家提倡AI+,把AI赋能到各个领域里面,把效能给提升上来,先赚到钱,然后再进行投入,滚动 起来。从长期来看,肯定我们这种模式是更加可持续的。"他说。 "所以,我认为他们很快就会不可持续的,Open AI能不能挺过2026年,都是一个问题。而中国非常务 实,国家提倡AI+,把AI赋能到各个领域里面,把效能给提升上来,先赚到钱,然后再进行投入,滚动 起来。从长期来看,肯定我们这种模式是更加可持续的。"他说。 新浪声明:所有会议实录均为现场速记整理,未经演讲者审阅,新浪网登载此文出于传递更多信息之目 的,并不 ...
“超音速海啸”已至:刘煜辉论AI革命与国运博弈下的2026
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2026-01-13 08:35
炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报,权威,专业,及时,全面,助您挖掘潜力主题机会! 来源:刘煜辉的高维宏观 不执于相,不预设果,只在动态中观察、调整 在刚刚举办的"中国首席经济学家论坛年会"上,刘博提到,当前世界正处一场"超音速海啸级"变革之中 ——人工智能革命与G2国运博弈深度交织,不仅加速替代高知白领、重构经济底层逻辑,更有可能使 传统宏观理论失效;与此同时,美元霸权重振乏力,中国资产重估背后是战略博弈中的持续得分。回看 去年,刘博早已预判A股将突破4000点,并明确提示AI端侧是关键的结构性方向。 如今面对新一年的躁动行情,刘博始终坚信终局必是"东风压倒西风",过程却需对西方科技与资源反扑 保持敬畏,真正的应对之道,不是预设结果,而是边走边看、因势而动,在动态变化中把握节奏、守住 方向。 前几天马斯克在超级工厂的访谈,相信不少人看了,我也深感震撼。他判断:当前全球正处在一场"超 音速海啸级"的变革中心。从经济学视角看,这一轮人工智能革命,正在彻底颠覆人类经济的传统生产 函数。 回看去年此时,我在年会演讲中曾指出一件事:西方世界的核心矛盾已发生根本转变。自特朗普当选以 来,其内部不再是阶级或利益之争,而是意识形态层 ...
马斯克预警:留给旧世界的时间只剩2000天,中国握着唯一的“王牌”
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2026-01-13 08:24
Core Insights - Elon Musk emphasizes that humanity is at a critical juncture, with only 2000 days left for the old world, highlighting the urgency of technological advancements and the transition from carbon-based to silicon-based civilization [2][3]. Group 1: Key Predictions - The timeline for significant AI advancements includes: by 2026, AI intelligence will surpass the smartest human individuals; within 3 years, Optimus robots will outperform top surgeons; and by 2029, AI intelligence will exceed the total intelligence of all humans [4][5][6]. - Musk warns that the upcoming crisis will be related to transformers and electricity, asserting that China is leading in energy infrastructure, significantly outpacing the U.S. [7][22]. Group 2: Economic and Workforce Implications - The job market will undergo a major transformation, with white-collar jobs being the first to be affected by AI, while blue-collar jobs will face a delay until the mass production of Optimus robots [8][9]. - Musk predicts that traditional economic models will collapse, suggesting that saving for retirement will become irrelevant due to extreme deflation driven by AI and robotics [10]. Group 3: Technological Landscape - Musk believes that the semiconductor supply chain will become less relevant as physical limitations of chip manufacturing are reached, with China expected to overcome these challenges [11][31]. - The future bottleneck in computing power will shift to electricity and architecture, where both the U.S. and China will be on equal footing [12][32]. Group 4: Education and Societal Changes - Musk critiques the current education system, suggesting it will devolve into a social space as AI tutors become prevalent, rendering traditional knowledge acquisition obsolete [13][33]. - The future workforce will favor individuals who can effectively collaborate with AI, rather than those who excel in rote memorization [14][36]. Group 5: Competitive Landscape - Musk identifies three main players in the future AGI landscape: xAI, Google, and "China Inc." (the Chinese state), emphasizing that the competition will be defined by infrastructure, data, and national will [20][36]. - He suggests that only those who can harness national resources for infrastructure and talent will be able to compete effectively in the AGI arena [36][37].
ChatGPT坐拥亿级用户但付费率不足10%,AI如何转化持久利润?
3 6 Ke· 2026-01-13 08:22
Core Insights - The narrative around the AI industry is undergoing significant scrutiny as massive capital expenditures collide with stagnant revenue growth, raising concerns about a potential "bubble" [1] - There is a growing gap between substantial investments in AI and the actual commercial returns, leading to a shift in focus from technological optimism to financial pragmatism [2] Group 1: Investment and Market Performance - In the U.S. market, NVIDIA's stock has reached new highs, reflecting investor enthusiasm for its AI chip business, while companies like Microsoft, Google, and Meta show structural differences in stock performance [1] - In China, Alibaba's stock has hit multi-year highs, with Tencent and Baidu also showing active performance in AI-related stocks, indicating ongoing market interest in domestic AI applications and infrastructure [1] - Despite high valuations in the global capital markets for the AI industry, concerns about the sustainability of these valuations are becoming a focal point of discussion [1] Group 2: Profitability Challenges in ToB AI - The global enterprise AI market is experiencing an asymmetric cycle of investment and profitability, with major players like Amazon and Google facing challenges as they expand [3] - Amazon's AWS is projected to have a capital expenditure of $125 billion in 2025, primarily for AI data center expansion, but its profit margins are under pressure due to rising operational costs [4][6] - AWS's revenue and operating income showed signs of recovery in Q3 2025, but profitability remains sensitive to capital expenditure and customer purchasing cycles [7] Group 3: Google Cloud's Growth and Challenges - Google Cloud has positioned AI at the core of its growth strategy, achieving significant revenue growth, but concerns about the mismatch between capital expenditure and returns persist [8][10] - Despite high ROI cases reported, the majority of AI projects struggle to achieve measurable returns, with only 25% of enterprise AI projects meeting initial ROI goals [14][15] Group 4: ToC AI Market Dynamics - The consumer AI segment faces challenges in converting user growth into revenue, with only 5% of AI projects yielding measurable benefits [16] - OpenAI's ChatGPT is projected to have annual revenue exceeding $20 billion in 2025, but its operational costs are rising exponentially, leading to significant losses [17] - The user base for ChatGPT has grown rapidly, but the conversion rate to paid subscriptions remains low, highlighting a disconnect between user acquisition and monetization [20][23] Group 5: Commercialization and Long-term Perspectives - The current investment-return imbalance in AI is seen as a phase rather than a failure of technology, with the potential for long-term value creation through efficiency improvements across industries [25][26] - The AI industry's commercial path is expected to follow a "J-curve," indicating that current losses are part of a necessary accumulation phase before significant returns can be realized [26][27] - The ongoing challenges in both ToB and ToC segments are contributing to the narrative of an "AI bubble," but the long-term potential of AI technology remains intact [27][28]
海南省信息产业投资集团增资至3.4亿
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2026-01-13 08:21
Group 1 - The core point of the article is the recent changes in the corporate structure of Hainan Information Industry Investment Group Co., Ltd., which has seen an increase in registered capital and new shareholders [1] - The registered capital of the company has increased from 300 million RMB to approximately 340 million RMB [1] - The company was established in December 2017 and is involved in various sectors including vocational intermediary activities, internet information services, basic telecommunications, industrial internet data services, enterprise management, industrial engineering design services, and artificial intelligence [1] Group 2 - The new shareholders include Hainan State-owned Capital Operation Co., Ltd. and two newly added partnerships focused on state-owned enterprise reform investment [1] - The legal representative of the company is Xie Shiyu [1] - The company operates in a diverse range of services, indicating a broad operational scope within the technology and investment sectors [1]
政府投资基金要变了
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2026-01-13 08:10
昨日(1月12日),国家发展改革委会同财政部、科技部、工业和信息化部联合发布《关于加强政府投 资基金布局规划和投向指导的工作办法》(简称《工作办法》);国家发展改革委同步出台了《政府投 资基金投向评价管理办法》(简称《管理办法》)。 投早投小占比≥70%;平均投资期≥5年;社会资本出资占比≥50%; 防止同质化竞争和对社会资本产生挤出效应,促进形成规模适度、布局合理、运作规范、科学高效、风 险可控的政府投资基金高质量发展格局。 对于政策鼓励投资的产业,要强化评估论证,防止盲目跟风、一哄而上和低水平重复建设。 在具体的投资行动上,《工作办法》要求政府投资基金在基金设立方案中明确重点投资的产业领域,并 进一步提出几大符合要求的"重点投向领域"和"禁止投资行为",其中包括不得投资于相关政策规定中的 限制类、淘汰类产业。 其中,《工作办法》为政府投资基金做了定性,明确了基金的投资方向和投资行为;《管理办法》则进 一步细化为13个评价指标,以下这些通通是加分项 投向元宇宙、脑机接口、量子信息、人形机器人、生成式人工智能、生物制造、生物育种、未来显示、 未来网络、新型储能等领域…… 这是首次在国家层面对政府投资基金的布局 ...
OpenAI同意以约1亿美元收购一款人工智能医疗健康应用
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2026-01-13 08:06
当下,原生人工智能初创企业正纷纷抢抓市场机遇,借助聊天机器人工具满足公众对健康相关问题的咨 询需求,解决医疗健康领域长期存在的痛点,例如用户难以汇总个人健康史的问题,此次收购正是在此 行业背景下完成的。 Torch能够帮助用户查看并分析来自不同渠道的健康数据,包括凯撒医疗等医疗体系、普雷努沃等医学 影像公司,以及苹果健康等运动追踪类应用。另一位知情人士表示,本次交易总对价中,现阶段支付金 额为6000万美元,剩余部分将以股权形式支付,用于挽留核心员工。 上周,OpenAI宣布推出ChatGPT健康功能板块,用户可借助该板块,结合个人医疗记录以及苹果健康、 我的健身伙伴等健身应用的数据咨询健康问题。上周末,Anthropic也为其聊天机器人Claude新增了医疗 健康功能,其中包括允许订阅用户将Claude与个人医疗记录及健身数据进行绑定。 对OpenAI而言,Torch团队的加入,将为公司带来整合分散医疗信息并对其进行精准评估的技术经验。 例如,该团队开发的软件能够处理不同来源数据间的冲突问题,比如协调健身追踪设备与医疗机构给出 的不一致数据。 据一位直接了解此次收购事宜的消息人士透露,OpenAI已同意以股 ...
顶天立地 星火燎原
Zhong Guo Zhi Liang Xin Wen Wang· 2026-01-13 08:05
转自:中国质量报 编者按 "用人工智能建设美好世界。"作为中国AI领域的先行者,科大讯飞股份有限公司(本版简称"科大讯飞")在20余年的创新发展中,坚持质量强企,构建并持 续升级"顶天立地"研用一体化质量管理模式。该模式支撑其在人工智能行业持续突破,为推进高水平科技自立自强探索出一条独立自主、内生协同的高质量 发展路径。科大讯飞的发展之路是科技创新与质量管理深度融合、企业成长与质量强国战略同频共振的生动实践。 2025科大讯飞全球1024开发者节上的AI许愿树,用多语言和市民互动。 顶天立地 星火燎原 —— 科大讯飞坚持质量强企引领人工智能产业创新发展纪实 探访 作为中国AI领域的先行者,科大讯飞在20余年的创新实践中,逐步形成并持续迭代一套贯穿研发、应用与管理全流程的"顶天立地"研用一体化质量管理模 式。"顶天"即始终坚持核心源头技术的自主创新与可信底座建设;"立地"即把技术成果转化为解决真实刚需、可规模复制的应用落地。这一模式既支撑了科 大讯飞自身的高质量发展,也为高科技企业探索出一条以自主创新牵引、以应用闭环检验的质量提升路径。 基于"顶天立地"的质量管理模式实践,从2023年5月首次发布,到2024年 ...
用自主可控AI筑牢“质量强国”根基
Zhong Guo Zhi Liang Xin Wen Wang· 2026-01-13 08:04
转自:中国质量报 □ 科大讯飞高级副总裁、首席质量官 赵志伟 赋能民生刚需,让"AI+"成为提升社会供给质量的支点。《质量强国建设纲要》提出要"增加优质服务供给"。在教育和医疗这两个最关乎人民幸福感的领 域,AI正通过提升"供给质量",让优质资源不再只集中在少数学校、少数医院,而是以更稳定、更可及的方式,进入每一间教室、每一个诊室。 在教育现场,质量的提升意味着"因材施教"。在湖北武汉神龙小学湖畔校区,老师们不再通过"题海战术"检验教学效果,而是利用星火教师助手高效备课, 通过AI黑板的虚拟人互动打造生动课堂。在江苏宜兴,孙静秋老师通过AI数据分析发现,课堂上学生的发言次数增加了83%,教师的有效追问提升了5倍。 这种质量,是让每个孩子在AI的陪伴下,从关注"答案是什么"转变为"我错在哪一步",真正实现个性化成长。 在医疗领域,质量的提升意味着"生命守护"。在安徽金寨古碑镇,81岁的李婆婆因肢体无力就诊,基层医生初诊为营养性贫血,但在录入"智医助理"后,AI 发出高风险预警,提示可能是脑卒中。正是这一"托举",挽救了一个家庭。目前,智医助理已累计为全国806个区县提供超过11.3亿次辅诊建议。这种质 量,是让 ...
上海985,正在盛产IPO
投资界· 2026-01-13 07:49
产业爆发,始于人才。 作者/吴琼 报道/投资界PEdaily 盛况历历在目。 这是创投圈一波罕见盛宴——新年第二天,壁仞科技登陆港交所,首日市值破千亿港元;随后Mi n iMa x赶来,市值同样超过千亿。 在此之前,沐曦已率先来到科创板,最新市值超2 4 0 0亿元。 你可能不知道,这三个千亿I PO背后创始团队都与上海交通大学联系密切。交大母基金更是实现沐曦、壁仞科技、Mi n iMa x大满贯。 由此, 我们看到一支中国硬科技崛起的交大系力量。 一个月,三个千亿IPO 先从最新千亿I PO说起。 这是一个上海交大印记更鲜明的I PO: 董事长张文是上海交大集成电路学院电子科学与技术专业博士生、上海交大人工智能校友会副会长; 联合创始人梁晓峣为上海交通大学电子信息与电气工程学院计算机科学与工程系教授; 联合创始人、原总裁徐凌杰为上海交大电子工程系校友。 稍早前,与壁仞科技同属"GPU四小龙"的沐曦,已先一步登陆科创板。梳理下来,沐曦联合创始人兼CTO彭莉,正是上海交大集成 电路学院本硕校友。上市首日,沐曦涨幅高达6 9 2 . 9 5 %,市值最高冲上3 5 0 0亿元。 1月9日,大模型公司Mi n iM ...