Group 1 - The article discusses tax incentives aimed at promoting the development of rural specialty industries and the circular economy in agriculture, specifically through the use of agricultural crop straw as raw material for producing pulp and paper [1] - A 50% immediate VAT refund policy is implemented for taxpayers producing pulp and paper from agricultural crop straw [1] - Taxpayers must meet specific conditions to qualify for the VAT refund, including obtaining proper invoices and maintaining a record of recycled resource purchases [2][3] Group 2 - Taxpayers are required to establish a record-keeping system for recycled resource acquisitions, detailing supplier information, resource types, quantities, prices, and invoice status [3] - The policy excludes sales of products that fall under categories deemed as high pollution or high environmental risk, as defined by relevant environmental regulations [3][4] - Taxpayers must ensure that over 70% of raw materials used in production come from the specified resources and comply with environmental discharge standards [4] Group 3 - The article outlines that small-scale taxpayers can enjoy VAT exemptions if their monthly sales do not exceed 100,000 yuan or quarterly sales do not exceed 300,000 yuan, with the policy extended until December 31, 2027 [8] - Small-scale taxpayers are subject to a reduced VAT rate of 1% on applicable sales, down from the standard 3% [8][15] - The article provides guidance on how small-scale taxpayers should fill out their VAT declaration forms based on their sales figures and invoice status [9][12]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. 2. Core Views - The Fed may end its balance - sheet reduction, and there is a high probability of a 25 - basis - point interest rate cut later this month [1][5][12]. - Gold is becoming an increasingly important ultimate safe - asset due to factors such as the US government shutdown, rising fiscal deficits, and global confrontation, but there may be adjustments after a rapid rise [2][19]. - The copper market is affected by factors like tight concentrate supply, high smelting output, and downstream demand. The Indonesia mine accident may lead to a supply - demand gap and support copper prices in the long term [2][20]. - The short - term trend of oil prices is downward, although global oil demand is expected to increase [3][13]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Main News - **International News**: Fed Chairman Powell hinted that the Fed may stop shrinking its balance sheet in the next few months and is likely to cut interest rates by 25 basis points later this month. The labor market shows signs of weakness, and inflation and employment prospects have changed little since September [1][5]. - **Domestic News**: Premier Li Qiang emphasized the importance of the next - step economic work, including implementing counter - cyclical adjustments, expanding domestic demand, and supporting foreign trade and investment [6]. - **Industry News**: The 138th Canton Fair kicked off, and China's goods trade in Q3 showed a 6% year - on - year increase, indicating the resilience of China's foreign trade [7]. 3.2 Outer - market Daily Returns - On October 14, the S&P 500, European STOXX 50, and other indices showed different degrees of decline, while ICE 11 - sugar and other varieties showed increases [8]. 3.3 Morning Comments on Major Varieties - **Financial Products** - **Stock Index**: After a high - level shock in September, the stock index is likely to maintain an upward trend in the long - term. However, short - term market fluctuations may increase due to Sino - US trade issues. The market style may shift to value in Q4 [10][11]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Treasury bonds continued to rise. The Fed's expected interest rate cut provides more room for China's monetary policy. With the weak domestic demand, the central bank is likely to implement a moderately loose monetary policy, which supports the price of treasury bond futures [12]. - **Energy and Chemical Products** - **Crude Oil**: SC crude oil fell 1.73% at night. A cease - fire agreement in Gaza was signed, and short - term oil prices tend to break downward, although global oil demand is expected to increase [3][13]. - **Methanol**: Methanol is short - term bullish. The operating rate of coal - to - olefin plants and methanol plants has increased, and coastal inventories are rising [14]. - **Rubber**: Rubber prices are expected to be weak due to smooth supply and limited demand. Weather in rubber - producing areas may affect production [15][16]. - **Polyolefins**: Polyolefin futures mainly declined. The market focuses on demand and potential industrial policies in Q4, and prices are affected by cost fluctuations [17]. - **Glass and Soda Ash**: Glass futures remained weak, and soda ash futures closed up. The market is cautious, and attention should be paid to consumption and policy changes [18]. - **Metals** - **Precious Metals**: Gold and silver prices fluctuated sharply at high levels. Gold is favored as a safe - asset due to various factors, but there may be adjustments [2][19]. - **Copper**: Copper prices rose 0.57% at night. The concentrate supply is tight, and the Indonesia mine accident may support copper prices in the long - term [2][20]. - **Zinc**: Zinc prices fell 0.74% at night. The smelting output is expected to increase, and zinc prices may follow copper prices in the short - term [21]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The supply and demand of lithium carbonate are both increasing, and the inventory is decreasing. The price is supported, and the recent fluctuation is small [23]. - **Black Products** - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The short - term fluctuation of coking coal and coke futures may intensify due to factors such as high steel production and Sino - US trade friction [24]. - **Iron Ore**: Iron ore demand is supported by high steel production. With a decrease in global iron ore shipments and rapid port inventory depletion, the market is expected to be bullish [25]. - **Steel**: The supply pressure of steel is increasing, and the inventory is accumulating. The market is in a state of weak supply and demand, with hot - rolled coils performing better than rebar [26]. - **Agricultural Products** - **Protein Meal**: The price of soybean meal and rapeseed meal showed different trends at night. The market is waiting for the USDA report, and the domestic supply is sufficient [27]. - **Oils and Fats**: Oils and fats were weak at night. The MPOB report showed an increase in palm oil inventory, and short - term prices may be under pressure, but long - term demand is supported [29]. - **Sugar**: International sugar is in a stock - building stage, and domestic sugar prices are expected to be weak due to supply pressure [30]. - **Cotton**: Cotton prices are expected to be weak in the short - term due to factors such as new cotton supply and weak downstream demand [31]. - **Shipping Index** - **Container Shipping to Europe**: The EC index rebounded in the afternoon. Maersk's price - stabilizing signal is positive, and the 12 - contract is expected to fluctuate widely in the short - term [32].

Quantitative Models and Construction Methods 1. Model Name: Industry Relative Strength (RSI) Model - **Model Construction Idea**: This model identifies leading industries by calculating their relative strength (RS) based on historical price performance over different time windows [10] - **Model Construction Process**: 1. Use 29 first-level industry indices as the configuration targets [10] 2. Calculate the price change rates for the past 20, 40, and 60 trading days for each industry index [10] 3. Rank the industries based on their price change rates for each time window and normalize the rankings to obtain RS_20, RS_40, and RS_60 [10] 4. Calculate the average of the three rankings to derive the final RS value: $ RS = \frac{RS_{20} + RS_{40} + RS_{60}}{3} $ [10] 5. Industries with RS > 90% by the end of April are identified as potential leading industries for the year [10] - **Model Evaluation**: The model successfully identified key annual industry trends, such as high dividend, resource products, exports, and AI, which were validated by market performance throughout the year [10][12] 2. Model Name: Industry Sentiment-Trend-Crowding Framework - **Model Construction Idea**: This framework provides two industry rotation strategies based on market conditions: 1. High sentiment + strong trend, avoiding high crowding (aggressive strategy) 2. Strong trend + low crowding, avoiding low sentiment (conservative strategy) [6][14] - **Model Construction Process**: 1. Evaluate industries based on three dimensions: sentiment, trend, and crowding [6][14] 2. Use sentiment as the core metric for the aggressive strategy, with crowding as a risk control factor [14] 3. Use trend as the core metric for the conservative strategy, avoiding low-sentiment industries [14] 4. Allocate weights to industries based on their scores in the three dimensions [6][14] - **Model Evaluation**: The framework is effective in adapting to different market conditions and has shown strong performance in historical backtests [6][14] 3. Model Name: Left-Side Inventory Reversal Model - **Model Construction Idea**: This model identifies industries with potential for recovery by analyzing sectors in distress or those with low inventory pressure and high analyst optimism [24] - **Model Construction Process**: 1. Identify industries currently in distress or recovering from past distress [24] 2. Focus on sectors with low inventory pressure and potential for restocking [24] 3. Incorporate analyst long-term positive outlooks for these industries [24] - **Model Evaluation**: The model effectively captures recovery opportunities in industries undergoing inventory restocking cycles, providing significant absolute and relative returns [24] --- Model Backtesting Results 1. Industry Relative Strength (RSI) Model - **Annualized Return**: Not explicitly mentioned - **Excess Return**: Not explicitly mentioned - **Information Ratio (IR)**: Not explicitly mentioned - **Maximum Drawdown**: Not explicitly mentioned - **Monthly Win Rate**: Not explicitly mentioned - **Performance Highlights**: - Industries with RS > 90% by April 2024 included coal, utilities, home appliances, banking, petrochemicals, communication, non-ferrous metals, agriculture, and automotive [10] - These industries showed strong performance, with key themes being high dividends, resource products, exports, and AI [10][12] 2. Industry Sentiment-Trend-Crowding Framework - **Annualized Return**: 22.1% (long-only portfolio) [14] - **Excess Return**: 13.8% (annualized) [14] - **Information Ratio (IR)**: 1.51 [14] - **Maximum Drawdown**: -8.0% [14] - **Monthly Win Rate**: 68% [14] - **Performance Highlights**: - 2023 excess return: 7.3% [14] - 2024 excess return: 5.7% [14] - 2025 YTD excess return: 2.8% [14] 3. Left-Side Inventory Reversal Model - **Annualized Return**: Not explicitly mentioned - **Excess Return**: - 2023: 17.0% (relative to equal-weighted industry benchmark) [24] - 2024: 15.4% (relative to equal-weighted industry benchmark) [24] - 2025 YTD: 7.8% (relative to equal-weighted industry benchmark) [24] - **Information Ratio (IR)**: Not explicitly mentioned - **Maximum Drawdown**: Not explicitly mentioned - **Monthly Win Rate**: Not explicitly mentioned - **Performance Highlights**: - Absolute return: - 2023: 13.4% [24] - 2024: 26.5% [24] - 2025 YTD: 26.4% [24] --- Quantitative Factors and Construction Methods 1. Factor Name: Sentiment Factor - **Factor Construction Idea**: Measures the overall sentiment of an industry to identify high-growth opportunities [14] - **Factor Construction Process**: 1. Evaluate the sentiment of each industry based on relevant metrics (not explicitly detailed in the report) [14] 2. Rank industries by sentiment scores [14] - **Factor Evaluation**: Sentiment is a core metric in the aggressive strategy of the Industry Sentiment-Trend-Crowding Framework, providing strong signals for high-growth opportunities [14] 2. Factor Name: Trend Factor - **Factor Construction Idea**: Measures the strength of market trends to identify industries with strong momentum [14] - **Factor Construction Process**: 1. Evaluate the trend of each industry based on relevant metrics (not explicitly detailed in the report) [14] 2. Rank industries by trend scores [14] - **Factor Evaluation**: Trend is a core metric in the conservative strategy of the Industry Sentiment-Trend-Crowding Framework, offering a simple and replicable approach to industry allocation [14] 3. Factor Name: Crowding Factor - **Factor Construction Idea**: Measures the level of crowding in an industry to identify overbought or underbought sectors [14] - **Factor Construction Process**: 1. Evaluate the crowding level of each industry based on relevant metrics (not explicitly detailed in the report) [14] 2. Rank industries by crowding scores [14] - **Factor Evaluation**: Crowding is used as a risk control factor in both aggressive and conservative strategies of the Industry Sentiment-Trend-Crowding Framework [14] --- Factor Backtesting Results 1. Sentiment Factor - **Annualized Return**: Not explicitly mentioned - **Excess Return**: Not explicitly mentioned - **Information Ratio (IR)**: Not explicitly mentioned - **Maximum Drawdown**: Not explicitly mentioned - **Monthly Win Rate**: Not explicitly mentioned 2. Trend Factor - **Annualized Return**: Not explicitly mentioned - **Excess Return**: Not explicitly mentioned - **Information Ratio (IR)**: Not explicitly mentioned - **Maximum Drawdown**: Not explicitly mentioned - **Monthly Win Rate**: Not explicitly mentioned 3. Crowding Factor - **Annualized Return**: Not explicitly mentioned - **Excess Return**: Not explicitly mentioned - **Information Ratio (IR)**: Not explicitly mentioned - **Maximum Drawdown**: Not explicitly mentioned - **Monthly Win Rate**: Not explicitly mentioned

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View The report presents an overview of the mid - and upstream industries, including production and service sectors, and details the price and operation status of various industries at different levels. It also mentions relevant policies and responses to international trade issues [1][2][3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Mid - view Event Overview - **Production Industry**: The Shanghai Economic and Information Technology Commission released an action plan to promote the high - quality development of the intelligent terminal industry from 2026 - 2027, aiming to increase the scale of intelligent computing power terminals. The National Development and Reform Commission issued a management method to support energy - saving and carbon - reduction renovations in key industries and infrastructure [1]. - **Service Industry**: In response to the US 301 investigation restrictions on China's shipbuilding and other industries, the Chinese Ministry of Commerce stated that the US measures are unfair and discriminatory, and urged the US to correct its mistakes and resolve issues through dialogue [1]. 3.2 Industry Overview - **Upstream**: Copper, zinc, and aluminum prices in the non - ferrous metal industry have rebounded, while egg prices in the agricultural industry have dropped significantly [2]. - **Midstream**: The PX industry in the chemical sector has a high operating rate; power plant coal consumption in the energy sector has decreased; and the asphalt industry in the infrastructure sector has reached a three - year high in operating rate [2]. - **Downstream**: The sales of commercial housing in second - and third - tier cities in the real estate market have slightly increased [3]. 3.3 Key Industry Price Index Tracking - **Agriculture**: On October 14, the prices of eggs decreased by 19.12% year - on - year, while the prices of palm oil increased by 2.38% [37]. - **Non - ferrous Metals**: On October 9, the prices of copper increased by 7.20% year - on - year, and the prices of zinc increased by 1.45% [37]. - **Energy**: On October 14, the prices of WTI crude oil decreased by 6.24% year - on - year, and the prices of Brent crude oil decreased by 5.62% [37]. - **Real Estate**: On October 14, the building materials comprehensive index decreased by 0.94%, and the concrete price index decreased by 0.35% [37].

Core Viewpoint - The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs and the National Financial Regulatory Administration are accelerating agricultural insurance claims in the Huanghuai region due to severe weather challenges affecting crop harvest and sowing [2][3]. Group 1: Agricultural Insurance Claims - The agricultural insurance claims process faces significant challenges, including difficulties in damage assessment. Authorities are prioritizing efficiency in claims processing and have established a "green channel" for rapid claims related to autumn grain [4][7]. - Agricultural insurance is a crucial policy tool for post-disaster recovery, directly impacting farmers' funding for production and national food security [7]. - In Shandong, persistent rainfall has severely impacted the harvesting, drying, and storage of autumn grain, prompting local authorities to expedite damage assessments and claims processing [7][11]. Group 2: Technological Integration - To address the challenges posed by the scattered nature of smallholder farms in the Huanghuai region, insurance companies are utilizing satellite remote sensing and drone technology to enhance damage assessment efficiency [6][11]. - The integration of technology aims to speed up the claims process and improve payout efficiency, with a focus on optimizing the claims workflow [6][11]. Group 3: Coordination and Support - Various departments, including finance, agriculture, and financial regulation, are actively monitoring the claims process and addressing challenges to ensure smooth reporting and damage assessment [13]. - It is anticipated that damage assessments will be completed by the end of October, with claims expected to be largely finalized by November [13].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the fluctuations in cotton futures prices on the ICE, with a current price of 63.51 cents per pound, reflecting a slight increase of 0.13% from the opening price [1] - On October 14, the opening price for cotton futures was 63.58 cents per pound, with a closing price of 63.52 cents per pound, indicating a decrease of 0.31% [2] - Brazil's national supply company, Conab, forecasts a cotton production of 4.0306 million tons for the 2025/26 season, a year-on-year decrease of 1.1% from 4.0769 million tons in the previous season [2] - The planted area for cotton in Brazil for the 2025/26 season is estimated at 2.1382 million hectares, an increase of 2.5% compared to 2.0861 million hectares in the previous year [2] - The average price of domestic cotton (B index) on October 14 was 14,731 yuan per ton, down 38 yuan per ton from October 13 [2] - The price of Xinjiang cotton delivered to Shandong for grade 3128B was 14,830 yuan per ton, a decrease of 35 yuan per ton from October 13 [2] Group 2 - As of October 14, the number of cotton futures warehouse receipts on the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange was 2,875, a decrease of 44 receipts from the previous trading day [3]

Core Viewpoint - The financial services sector in Tai'an is actively supporting rural revitalization by directing financial resources towards key areas and weak links, thereby injecting continuous financial momentum into rural development [1] Group 1: Work Mechanism - The implementation of the "Tai'an Financial Support for Rural Revitalization Implementation Opinions" outlines responsibilities and measures to enhance the financial service system for rural revitalization [2] - A service team consisting of young officials and senior bank executives has been established to create a collaborative service model [2] - A regular assessment and adjustment mechanism has been set up to monitor and optimize the progress of financial support for rural revitalization [2] Group 2: Innovative Product Services - The introduction of the "Talent Loan" and a "green channel" for agricultural technology personnel aims to streamline the loan approval process, with 131 loans amounting to 621 million yuan issued [3] - Banks are encouraged to innovate financial products tailored to agricultural needs, resulting in over 90 new agricultural credit products launched [3] - A total of 22,532 guarantee projects have been initiated, with a cumulative guarantee amount of 13.47 billion yuan, including 777 new projects this year [3] Group 3: Policy Utilization - Agricultural loans in Tai'an reached 201.24 billion yuan by the end of August, reflecting an 8.06% increase since the beginning of the year, surpassing the city's average growth rate [4] - The Agricultural Development Bank has provided 750 million yuan in loans to support grain and oil reserves, with specific loans allocated for summer grain purchases [4] - A total of 5.167 billion yuan in policy loans has been secured to support ecological protection and high-quality development in the Yellow River basin [4] Group 4: Comprehensive Strategies - Local financial organizations, such as small loan and private capital companies, are being encouraged to support rural finance, with a total agricultural investment of 92.8 million yuan [5] - Efforts are being made to facilitate the listing of agricultural enterprises on capital markets, with 12 enterprises already listed on the "Rural Revitalization Board" [6] - Agricultural insurance services are being expanded through the establishment of "Three Agricultural Insurance Service Stations" to cover more local agricultural products [6]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The stock index showed a pattern of rising and then falling, with an obvious style shift. The bond market recovered due to the stock market adjustment and loose liquidity. Precious metals prices were volatile, with gold reaching a new high. The shipping index (European line) had an upward trend in the futures market. The prices of various metals and agricultural products also showed different trends and characteristics, affected by factors such as supply - demand fundamentals, macro - policies, and international trade relations [2][5][7][11] - The market is affected by multiple factors, including domestic and international policies, economic data, and trade frictions. For example, the Sino - US tariff issue, the Fed's monetary policy, and the political situation in the United States all have an impact on the market. In the short term, the market may experience fluctuations, but in the long term, the overall trend is still affected by the fundamentals of supply and demand [4][8][17] 3. Summaries According to the Catalog Financial Derivatives - Financial Futures Stock Index Futures - **Market Situation**: On Tuesday, A - share major indexes opened higher and then declined. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.62%, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 2.54%, and the ChiNext Index fell 3.99%. The four major stock index futures contracts also declined, and the basis spreads of the main contracts showed narrow - range fluctuations [2][3] - **News**: Domestically, China imposed counter - measures on 5 US - related subsidiaries of Hanwha Ocean Co., Ltd. Overseas, Fed Chairman Powell hinted at a possible end to balance - sheet reduction and a potential interest - rate cut [3][4] - **Funding**: On October 14, the A - share market trading volume increased. The central bank conducted 910 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, resulting in a net injection of 910 billion yuan [4] - **Operation Suggestion**: The market risk appetite may be suppressed in the short term, but the stock index is expected to fall first and then rebound. It is recommended to wait for the fluctuations to converge before entering the market at low levels [4] Treasury Bond Futures - **Market Performance**: Treasury bond futures opened low and closed high, with all contracts rising. Bank - to - bank major interest - rate bonds showed a differentiated trend, with medium - and long - term bonds strengthening and short - term bonds weakening [5] - **Funding**: The central bank conducted 910 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, and the short - term liquidity was loose. The money market rate was low, and the long - term capital rate was slightly higher than the previous day [6] - **Operation Suggestion**: The bond market recovery is uncertain. It is recommended to wait and see for over - adjustment opportunities, with the T2512 contract expected to fluctuate between 107.4 and 108.3 [6] Financial Derivatives - Precious Metals - **Market Review**: China imposed counter - measures on US - related subsidiaries of Hanwha Ocean Co., Ltd. Powell hinted at an end to balance - sheet reduction and a possible interest - rate cut. The international precious metals market was volatile, with gold reaching a new high and then falling back [7][8][9] - **Outlook**: The risk of US economic recession has increased, and the Fed's policy may strengthen the downward pressure on the US dollar. Precious metals are expected to have a bull market, but the price may fluctuate sharply in the short term. It is recommended to hold long positions above 910 yuan and set stop - loss and take - profit levels. For silver, it is recommended to maintain a long - position thinking above 11,000 yuan [9][10] - **Funding**: Global economic and political turmoil has led investors to increase their allocation of precious metals through ETFs [10] Financial Derivatives - Shipping Index (European Line) - **Spot Quotation**: As of October 14, the freight quotes for Shanghai - Europe basic ports from different shipping companies were provided [11] - **Shipping Index**: As of October 13, the SCFIS European line index decreased by 1.4% month - on - month, and the US - West route index decreased by 1.64% month - on - month. As of October 10, the SCFI composite index increased by 4.12% month - on - month [11] - **Fundamentals**: As of October 14, the global container total capacity increased by 7.41% year - on - year. The eurozone's September composite PMI was 51.2, and the US September manufacturing PMI was 49.1 [11] - **Logic**: The futures market showed an upward trend. Although November and December are traditional peak seasons, macro - factors such as Sino - US tariffs and the cease - fire in the Israel - Palestine conflict are negative factors for the European line [12] - **Operation Suggestion**: Due to many macro - uncertainties, it is recommended to be cautiously bullish on the December contract [12] Commodity Futures - Non - ferrous Metals Copper - **Spot**: As of October 14, the average price of electrolytic copper increased, and the average price of spot premium decreased. The spot trading was expected to remain weak [12] - **Macro**: The Sino - US tariff issue may affect copper prices. The weak US employment data led to expectations of further monetary easing by the Fed [12][17] - **Supply**: The shortage of copper ore continued. The production of electrolytic copper in September decreased, and it was expected to continue to decline in October. The decline in sulfuric acid prices may affect the smelter's profit and production [14] - **Demand**: The downstream demand for copper showed some resilience. Although the demand in the fourth quarter may slow down, the power industry may have more orders in the second half of the year [15] - **Inventory**: LME copper inventory decreased, while domestic and COMEX copper inventories increased [16] - **Logic**: The copper price fluctuated weakly. The Sino - US tariff issue and the shortage of copper ore supply were the main influencing factors [17] - **Operation Suggestion**: Take profit on long positions at high prices, and focus on the support level of 84,000 - 85,000 yuan [17] - **Short - term View**: Oscillation [17] Alumina - **Spot**: On October 14, the spot prices of alumina in different regions decreased. The supply pattern was gradually loosening, and the inventory was accumulating [17] - **Supply**: In September 2025, China's metallurgical - grade alumina production increased. The industry's operating capacity was at a high level, and it was expected to continue to have an oversupply situation in October [18] - **Inventory**: The port inventory decreased, the factory inventory of electrolytic aluminum increased, and the registered warehouse receipts increased [19] - **Logic**: The futures price continued to decline. The supply was abundant, the cost support was weakening, and the demand was sluggish [20] - **Operation Suggestion**: The main contract is expected to fluctuate between 2,800 and 3,000 yuan [20] - **View**: Oscillation with a downward trend [20] Aluminum - **Spot**: On October 14, the average price of A00 aluminum increased, and the average price of spot premium increased [21] - **Supply**: In September 2025, the production of domestic electrolytic aluminum increased slightly year - on - year and decreased month - on - month. The aluminum - water ratio increased. It was expected that the daily output of aluminum ingots would continue to increase slightly in October [21] - **Demand**: The downstream entered the traditional peak season, but the start - up rate decreased due to the holiday [21] - **Inventory**: The inventory of domestic mainstream consumption areas increased, and the LME aluminum inventory decreased [22] - **Logic**: The price of Shanghai aluminum futures increased, but the high price suppressed spot purchases. The macro - environment was favorable, and the supply - demand was in a tight - balance state [23] - **Operation Suggestion**: The main contract is expected to operate between 20,700 and 21,300 yuan [23] - **View**: Wide - range oscillation [23] Aluminum Alloy - **Spot**: On October 14, the average price of aluminum alloy ADC12 remained unchanged [23] - **Supply**: In August, the production of domestic recycled aluminum alloy ingots decreased. It was expected that the start - up rate would increase slightly in September [24][25] - **Demand**: The demand in September showed a mild recovery, but the demand transmission in the terminal field was not smooth, and the high price suppressed procurement [25] - **Inventory**: The inventory continued to accumulate, and the social inventory in some areas was close to full [25] - **Logic**: The futures price fluctuated with the aluminum price. The cost support was strong, the supply was affected by raw materials and policies, and the demand was gradually recovering [26] - **Operation Suggestion**: The main contract is expected to operate between 20,200 and 20,800 yuan. If the short - term upward momentum of Shanghai aluminum is strong, consider the arbitrage of going long on AD12 and short on AL12 when the spread is above 500 [26][27] - **View**: Wide - range oscillation [27] Zinc - **Spot**: On October 14, the average price of 0 zinc ingot increased slightly, and the spot was in a weak state with a discount [27] - **Supply**: From January to September, the supply of the zinc industry chain was loose, but the decline in domestic TC and sulfuric acid prices limited the increase in zinc ingot production [28] - **Demand**: The overall demand did not exceed expectations. The start - up rate of primary processing industries decreased due to the holiday, and it was expected to recover gradually next week [29] - **Inventory**: Both domestic and LME zinc inventories increased [30] - **Logic**: The zinc price oscillated, and the supply - demand fundamentals were relatively weak. The price was expected to remain oscillating in the short term [30][31] - **Operation Suggestion**: The main contract is expected to operate between 21,500 and 22,500 yuan [31] - **Short - term View**: Oscillation [31] Tin - **Spot**: On October 14, the price of 1 tin decreased, and the spot trading was light [31] - **Supply**: In August, the import of tin ore and tin ingots showed different trends. The supply from Myanmar improved in the short term, and the export of tin ingots from Indonesia decreased [32] - **Demand and Inventory**: In September, the start - up rate of solder increased slightly, but the demand in traditional fields was weak. The inventory decreased [33] - **Logic**: The supply was relatively strong, and the demand was weak. The price was expected to be affected by macro - factors and the supply situation in Myanmar [34] - **Operation Suggestion**: Pay attention to buying opportunities when the macro - sentiment falls [34] - **Recent View**: Wide - range oscillation [34] Nickel - **Spot**: As of October 14, the average price of 1 electrolytic nickel decreased, and the import spot premium increased [34] - **Supply**: In September, the production of refined nickel increased. It was expected to continue to increase slightly [35] - **Demand**: The demand for electroplating and stainless steel was stable or weak, while the demand for alloys was good. The demand for nickel sulfate had short - term support but faced challenges in the medium term [35][36] - **Inventory**: Overseas inventory remained high, domestic social inventory increased, and bonded - area inventory was stable [36] - **Logic**: The nickel price oscillated weakly. The macro - environment was uncertain, and the supply - demand fundamentals were complex. The price was expected to oscillate strongly in the short term [37] - **Operation Suggestion**: The main contract is expected to operate between 120,000 and 126,000 yuan. Pay attention to macro - expectations and Indonesian industrial policies [37][38] - **Short - term View**: Range oscillation [38] Stainless Steel - **Spot**: As of October 14, the price of 304 cold - rolled stainless steel decreased, and the basis increased [38] - **Raw Materials**: The price of nickel ore was firm, the price of nickel iron was stable, and the price of chrome iron increased [38] - **Supply**: In September, the production of domestic stainless steel increased, and it was expected to continue to increase in October [39] - **Inventory**: Social inventory increased after the holiday, and the number of warehouse receipts decreased [39] - **Logic**: The stainless - steel price oscillated downward. The macro - environment was weak, the supply was under pressure, and the demand did not meet expectations [40] - **Operation Suggestion**: The main contract is expected to operate between 12,400 and 12,800 yuan. Pay attention to macro - expectations and steel - mill dynamics [40][41] - **Short - term View**: Weak oscillation [42] Lithium Carbonate - **Spot**: As of October 14, the spot prices of battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate decreased slightly, and the trading was light [42] - **Supply**: In September, the production of lithium carbonate increased, and it continued to increase in the week of October 9. The increase mainly came from new projects and lithium - spodumene processing [42] - **Demand**: The demand was optimistic, with an increase in orders from the new - energy and energy - storage sectors. The export volume also increased [43] - **Inventory**: The overall inventory decreased, with the smelter reducing inventory and the downstream replenishing inventory seasonally [43] - **Logic**: The futures price oscillated strongly. The fundamentals were in a tight - balance state during the peak season. The price was expected to oscillate in the short term [44] - **Operation Suggestion**: The main - contract price is expected to oscillate between 70,000 and 75,000 yuan. Pay attention to macro - risks [44][45] - **Short - term View**: Oscillation and consolidation [45] Commodity Futures - Black Metals Steel - **Spot**: The spot price of steel decreased. The basis of rebar weakened, and the basis of hot - rolled coil was slightly stronger [45] - **Cost and Profit**: The cost of steel had support, and the profit decreased significantly from a high level. The profit order was billet > hot - rolled coil > rebar > cold - rolled coil [45] - **Supply**: In September - October, the production of molten iron remained high, but decreased slightly during the National Day holiday. The production of five major steel products was basically the same year - on - year [45][46] - **Demand**: The apparent demand for rebar decreased year - on - year but improved seasonally. The apparent demand for hot - rolled coil increased year - on - year and was basically the same month - on - month [46] - **Inventory**: The inventory of five major steel products increased, with rebar and hot - rolled coil inventories rising. The inventory was expected to increase year - on - year but decrease month - on - month [47] - **View**: The steel price weakened, but the decline was less than that of iron ore. The supply - demand of steel improved, but the demand for hot - rolled coil needed to be observed. Pay attention to the support levels of 3,000 and 3,200 yuan for rebar and hot - rolled coil in the January contract [47] Iron Ore - **Spot**: As of October 14, the spot prices of mainstream iron - ore powders decreased [48] - **Futures**: As of October 14, the iron - ore futures prices decreased, and the 1 - 5 spread weakened [48] - **Basis**: The optimal deliverable product was PB powder, and the basis of different iron - ore varieties was calculated [48] - **Demand**: As of October 9, the daily output of molten iron, blast - furnace operating rate, and other indicators decreased slightly [48] - **Supply**: As of October 13, the global iron - ore shipment decreased week - on - week, and the arrival volume increased. The monthly import volume in September increased [49] - **Inventory**: Port inventory increased, the daily port - clearance volume decreased, and steel - mill import inventory decreased [49] - **View**: The iron - ore futures price oscillated downward. The supply - demand fundamentals were complex, and the price was expected to fluctuate within a range. It is recommended to wait and see for single - side trading and consider the arbitrage of going long on iron ore and short on hot - rolled coil [49][50] Coking Coal - **Futures and Spot**: As of October 14, the coking - coal futures price oscillated and rebounded. The spot price in Shanxi was stable or decreased, and the price of Mongolian coal increased [51][54] - **Supply**: As of October 8, the production capacity utilization rate of sample coal mines decreased, and the production and inventory of raw coal and clean coal changed [51][52] - **Demand**: As of October 8, the daily output of coke decreased slightly, and the demand for downstream replenishment weakened [53] - **Inventory**: The total coking - coal inventory decreased slightly, with different trends in different sectors [53] - **View**: The coking - coal

Report Summary 1. Market Overview - Domestic commodity futures markets closed mostly lower, with non-metallic building materials leading the decline [1] 2. Asset Performance 2.1 Equity Index Futures - CSI 300 futures: Current price 4507.2, daily decline of 1.21%, weekly decline of 1.85%, monthly decline of 2.40%, quarterly decline of 2.40%, and annual increase of 14.95% [2] - SSE 50 futures: Current price 2958.4, daily decline of 0.11%, weekly decline of 0.58%, monthly decline of 1.02%, quarterly decline of 1.02%, and annual increase of 10.47% [2] - CSI 500 futures: Current price 7010, daily decline of 3.06%, weekly decline of 3.52%, monthly decline of 3.85%, quarterly decline of 3.85%, and annual increase of 23.13% [2] - CSI 1000 futures: Current price 7145.8, daily decline of 2.19%, weekly decline of 2.65%, monthly decline of 3.52%, quarterly decline of 3.52%, and annual increase of 22.18% [2] 2.2 Bond Futures - 2-year treasury bond futures: Current price 102.38, daily increase of 0.01%, weekly increase of 0.03%, monthly increase of 0.01%, quarterly increase of 0.01%, and annual decline of 0.57% [2] - 5-year treasury bond futures: Current price 105.78, daily increase of 0.09%, weekly increase of 0.12%, monthly increase of 0.14%, quarterly increase of 0.14%, and annual decline of 0.72% [2] - 10-year treasury bond futures: Current price 108.17, daily increase of 0.10%, weekly increase of 0.18%, monthly increase of 0.30%, quarterly increase of 0.30%, and annual decline of 0.69% [2] - 30-year treasury bond futures: Current price 114.76, daily increase of 0.28%, weekly increase of 0.69%, monthly increase of 0.76%, quarterly increase of 0.76%, and annual decline of 3.43% [2] 2.3 Foreign Exchange - US Dollar Index: Current price 99.26, daily unchanged, weekly increase of 0.44%, monthly increase of 1.47%, quarterly increase of 1.47%, and annual decline of 8.50% [2] - EUR/USD: Current price 1.157, daily unchanged, weekly decline of 53 pips, monthly decline of 164 pips, quarterly decline of 164 pips, and annual increase of 1217 pips [2] - USD/JPY: Current price 152.31, daily unchanged, weekly increase of 0.76%, monthly increase of 2.96%, quarterly increase of 2.96%, and annual decline of 3.11% [2] - USD mid-price: Current price 7.1021, daily increase of 14 pips, weekly decline of 27 pips, monthly decline of 34 pips, quarterly decline of 34 pips, and annual decline of 863 pips [2] 2.4 Interest Rates - 7-day interbank pledged repo rate: Current rate 1.46%, daily unchanged, weekly increase of 9 bp, monthly increase of 1 bp, quarterly increase of 1 bp, and annual decline of 29 bp [2] - 10Y Chinese treasury bond yield: Current rate 1.84%, daily increase of 1.8 bp, weekly decline of 0.8 bp, monthly decline of 2.2 bp, quarterly decline of 2.2 bp, and annual increase of 0.2 bp [2] - 10Y US treasury bond yield: Current rate 4.05%, daily decline of 9 bp, weekly unchanged, monthly increase of 0.01 bp, quarterly decline of 11 bp, and annual decline of 50 bp [2] - US 10Y-2Y yield spread: Current spread 0.53%, daily decline of 1 bp, quarterly increase of 0.03 bp, quarterly decline of 3 bp, and annual increase of 20 bp [2] - 10Y breakeven inflation rate: Current rate 2.3%, daily decline of 4 bp, monthly unchanged, quarterly decline of 0.05 bp, quarterly decline of 6 bp, and annual decline of 1 bp [2] 2.5 Metals - Gold: Current price 938.98, daily increase of 1.23%, monthly increase of 7.39%, quarterly increase of 7.39%, and annual increase of 52.04% [2] - Silver: Current price 11533, daily increase of 0.02%, monthly increase of 5.63%, quarterly increase of 5.63%, and annual increase of 54.39% [2] - Copper: Current price 84410, daily decline of 0.83%, monthly increase of 1.56%, quarterly increase of 1.56%, and annual increase of 14.42% [2] - Aluminum: Current price 20860, daily decline of 0.12%, monthly increase of 0.87%, quarterly increase of 0.87%, and annual increase of 5.46% [2] - Alumina: Current price 2805, daily decline of 0.53%, monthly decline of 2.20%, quarterly decline of 2.20%, and annual decline of 41.53% [2] - Zinc: Current price 22220, daily decline of 0.16%, monthly increase of 1.81%, quarterly increase of 1.81%, and annual decline of 12.73% [2] - Lead: Current price 120830, daily decline of 0.48%, monthly decline of 0.06%, quarterly decline of 0.06%, and annual decline of 3.14% [2] - Nickel: Current price 280430, daily decline of 0.60%, monthly increase of 1.95%, quarterly increase of 1.95%, and annual increase of 14.53% [2] - Stainless steel: Current price 8520, daily decline of 3.24%, monthly decline of 1.39%, quarterly decline of 1.39%, and annual decline of 22.44% [2] - Tin: Current price 280430, daily decline of 0.60%, monthly increase of 1.95%, quarterly increase of 1.95%, and annual increase of 14.53% [2] - Lithium carbonate: Current price 72680, daily increase of 0.55%, monthly decline of 0.16%, quarterly decline of 0.16%, and annual decline of 5.73% [2] - Industrial silicon: Current price 8520, daily decline of 3.24%, monthly decline of 1.39%, quarterly decline of 1.39%, and annual decline of 22.44% [2] - Rebar: Current price 3061, daily decline of 0.71%, monthly decline of 0.36%, quarterly decline of 0.36%, and annual decline of 7.49% [2] - Hot-rolled coil: Current price 3241, daily decline of 0.61%, monthly decline of 0.37%, quarterly decline of 0.37%, and annual decline of 5.18% [2] - Iron ore: Current price 782, daily decline of 2.80%, monthly increase of 0.19%, quarterly increase of 0.19%, and annual increase of 0.39% [2] - Coke: Current price 1654.5, daily increase of 0.73%, monthly increase of 1.94%, quarterly increase of 1.84%, and annual decline of 8.69% [2] - Coking coal: Current price 1153.5, daily increase of 0.65%, monthly increase of 2.44%, quarterly increase of 2.44%, and annual decline of 0.60% [2] - Ferrosilicon: Current price 5378, daily decline of 0.52%, monthly decline of 2.11%, quarterly decline of 2.11%, and annual decline of 14.03% [2] - Manganese silicon: Current price 5738, daily decline of 0.14%, monthly decline of 0.35%, quarterly decline of 0.35%, and annual decline of 5.78% [2] - Glass: Current price 1138, daily decline of 3.48%, monthly decline of 5.95%, quarterly decline of 5.95%, and annual decline of 14.24% [2] - Soda ash: Current price 1234, daily decline of 1.04%, monthly decline of 1.67%, quarterly decline of 1.67%, and annual decline of 13.89% [2] 2.6 Energy and Chemicals - Crude oil: Current price 448.6, daily decline of 1.12%, monthly decline of 6.48%, quarterly decline of 6.48%, and annual decline of 19.88% [2] - Fuel oil: Current price 2700, daily decline of 1.35%, monthly decline of 2.82%, quarterly decline of 5.82%, and annual decline of 18.82% [2] - Low-sulfur fuel oil: Current price 3203, daily decline of 0.90%, monthly decline of 6.13%, quarterly decline of 6.13%, and annual decline of 20.02% [2] - Asphalt: Current price 3290, daily decline of 0.36%, monthly decline of 3.91%, quarterly decline of 3.91%, and annual decline of 10.82% [2] - Methanol: Current price 2274, daily decline of 2.90%, monthly decline of 2.32%, quarterly decline of 2.32%, and annual decline of 15.87% [2] - PX: Current price 6338, daily decline of 1.43%, monthly decline of 3.35%, quarterly decline of 3.35%, and annual decline of 9.35% [2] - PTA: Current price 4440, daily decline of 1.55%, monthly decline of 3.35%, quarterly decline of 3.35%, and annual decline of 9.24% [2] - Urea: Current price 1597, daily decline of 0.81%, monthly decline of 4.37%, quarterly decline of 4.37%, and annual decline of 6.44% [2] - Short fiber: Current price 6060, daily decline of 1.17%, monthly decline of 2.82%, quarterly decline of 2.82%, and annual decline of 11.22% [2] - Styrene: Current price 6544, daily decline of 2.18%, monthly decline of 4.26%, quarterly decline of 4.26%, and annual decline of 19.19% [2] - Ethylene glycol: Current price 4061, daily decline of 1.22%, monthly decline of 3.47%, quarterly decline of 3.47%, and annual decline of 16.20% [2] - PP: Current price 6602, daily decline of 1.36%, monthly decline of 3.65%, quarterly decline of 3.65%, and annual decline of 11.70% [2] - PVC: Current price 4692, daily decline of 0.61%, monthly decline of 3.04%, quarterly decline of 3.04%, and annual decline of 11.30% [2] - Caustic soda: Current price 2428, daily decline of 1.46%, monthly decline of 4.07%, quarterly decline of 4.07%, and annual decline of 16.48% [2] - Rubber: Current price 14845, daily decline of 0.64%, monthly decline of 1.23%, quarterly decline of 1.23%, and annual decline of 16.69% [2] - 20 rubber: Current price 106611, daily decline of 0.42%, monthly decline of 0.91%, quarterly decline of 0.91%, and annual decline of 19.61% [2] - Pulp: Current price 4846, daily increase of 0.08%, monthly increase of 0.25%, quarterly increase of 0.25%, and annual decline of 18.47% [2] 2.7 Agriculture - Soybean meal: Current price 2902, daily decline of 1.02%, monthly decline of 0.89%, quarterly decline of 0.89%, and annual increase of 7.64% [2] - Soybean oil: Current price 8240, daily decline of 0.34%, monthly increase of 1.23%, quarterly increase of 1.23%, and annual increase of 6.85% [2] - Palm oil: Current price 9330, daily decline of 0.36%, monthly increase of 1.11%, quarterly increase of 1.11%, and annual increase of 7.64% [2] - Rapeseed oil: Current price 8664, daily decline of 0.63%, monthly decline of 0.85%, quarterly decline of 0.85%, and annual decline of 2.57% [2] - Rapeseed meal: Current price 2348, daily decline of 1.84%, monthly decline of 3.02%, quarterly decline of 3.02%, and annual decline of 2.57% [2] - Cotton: Current price 13265, daily decline of 0.26%, monthly increase of 0.38%, quarterly increase of 0.38%, and annual decline of 1.70% [2] - Sugar: Current price 5397, daily decline of 1.33%, monthly decline of 1.75%, quarterly decline of 1.75%, and annual decline of 9.46% [2] - Live pigs: Current price 11450, daily increase of 2.92%, monthly decline of 7.32%, quarterly decline of 7.32%, and annual decline of 10.55% [2] - Eggs: Current price 2852, daily increase of 1.57%, monthly decline of 6.12%, quarterly decline of 6.12%, and annual decline of 15.62% [2] - Red dates: Current price 11110, daily decline of 0.18%, monthly increase of 2.68%, quarterly increase of 2.68%, and annual increase of 20.63% [2] - Apples: Current price 8664, daily increase of 0.30%, monthly increase of 0.55%, quarterly increase of 0.55%, and annual increase of 22.37% [2] - Peanuts: Current price 7864, daily decline of 0.48%, monthly increase of 1.29%, quarterly increase of 1.29%, and annual decline of 0.81% [2] - Corn: Current price 2093, daily increase of 0.05%, monthly decline of 2.33%, quarterly decline of 2.33%, and annual decline of 6.10% [2] 3. Macro Analysis 3.1 Overseas Macro - Focus on new tariff threats from Trump and marginal changes in the US government shutdown [5] - There is a risk of further escalation of conflicts before the APEC meeting at the end of October [5] - If the US government shutdown exceeds 30 days, it will weaken the "bad news is good news" logic and push up the recession risk [5] 3.2 Domestic Macro - China will gradually enter the period of focusing on the "15th Five-Year Plan" and tracking incremental policies [5] - The 4th Plenary Session of the 20th CPC Central Committee will be held from October

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