Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report Core Viewpoints of the Report - The domestic economic recovery shows marginal weakness but retains resilience, and with the short - term improvement of the trade situation in May and the implementation of growth - stabilizing policies, the fundamentals are expected to improve marginally [95]. - Overseas economies show signs of recession, with the US economy facing challenges such as a decline in GDP and a weakening labor market, and inflation is expected to rise gradually [96]. - The bond market is expected to continue its oscillatory consolidation pattern, with low probability of significant fluctuations in the short term. Attention should be paid to subsequent high - frequency economic data and changes in the capital market. Also, be wary of the risk of long - end bond price corrections [96]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - **Weekly Data**: The 30 - year, 10 - year, 5 - year, and 2 - year Treasury futures' main contracts (TL2509, T2509, TF2509, TS2509) fell by 0.16%, 0.11%, 0.03%, and 0.01% respectively. The trading volumes were 431,000, 373,000, 307,000, and 197,000 contracts respectively. The settlement prices were 41.119, 108.72, 106.01, and 102.40 respectively [13][14]. - **Treasury Futures Market Review**: The trading volumes of TS and T main contracts decreased, while those of TF and TL main contracts increased. The open interest of TS, TF, T, and TL main contracts all increased [32]. 2. News Review and Analysis - **Key News Review**: On May 26, the General Offices of the CPC Central Committee and the State Council issued the "Opinions on Improving the Modern Enterprise System with Chinese Characteristics". Moody's maintained China's sovereign credit rating at "A1" with a negative outlook. On May 27, it was announced that in April, the profits of industrial enterprises above the designated size in China increased by 3% year - on - year. From May 28 - 29, multiple important events occurred, including the release of the Fed's meeting minutes and the issuance of the "Opinions on Improving the Market - based Allocation System of Resource and Environmental Elements" [35][36]. 3. Chart Analysis - **Spread Changes** - **Treasury Yield Spreads**: The spreads between 10 - year and 5 - year, and 10 - year and 1 - year Treasury yields both narrowed slightly [45]. - **Main Contract Spreads**: The spread between 2 - year and 5 - year main contracts oscillated, and the spread between 5 - year and 10 - year main contracts narrowed slightly [49]. - **Treasury Futures Near - and Far - Month Spreads**: The spreads of 10 - year, 30 - year, 2 - year, and 5 - year contracts all weakened slightly [55][61]. - **Treasury Futures Main Contract Open Interest Changes**: The net short positions of the top 20 open interests in the T main contract increased slightly [65]. - **Interest Rate Changes** - **Shibor and Treasury Yields**: Overnight Shibor rates declined, while 1 - week, 2 - week, and 1 - month Shibor rates rose. Treasury bond yields weakened, with 1 - 7Y yields rising by 2 - 3bp, and 10Y and 30Y yields rising by about 2bp to 1.68% and 1.92% respectively [69]. - **China - US Treasury Yield Spreads**: The spreads between 10 - year and 30 - year China - US Treasury yields both narrowed slightly [73]. - **Central Bank Open - Market Operations**: The central bank conducted 1,602.6 billion yuan in reverse repurchases, with 946 billion yuan in reverse repurchases maturing, resulting in a net injection of 656.6 billion yuan. The weighted average DR007 rate rebounded to around 1.66% [76]. - **Bond Issuance and Maturity**: This week, bonds worth 105.7177 billion yuan were issued, with a total repayment of 87.1891 billion yuan, and a net financing of 18.5286 billion yuan [79]. - **Market Sentiment** - **Exchange Rates**: The central parity rate of the RMB against the US dollar was 7.1848, up 71 basis points this week. The spread between offshore and onshore RMB weakened [85]. - **US Treasury Yields and VIX Index**: The 10 - year US Treasury yield and the VIX index both declined slightly [88]. - **A - Share Risk Premium**: The 10 - year Treasury yield rose slightly, and the A - share risk premium declined slightly [92]. 4. Market Outlook and Strategy - **Market Outlook**: The domestic economy continues to recover moderately, while overseas economies show signs of recession. The bond market is expected to continue its oscillatory consolidation pattern, and attention should be paid to subsequent high - frequency economic data and changes in the capital market. Be wary of the risk of long - end bond price corrections [95][96]. - **Strategy**: Given the current situation, the possibility of further interest rate cuts is low. The bond market is driven by the capital and fundamental factors, and there may be no high - quality short - term trading opportunities. One should be cautious about the risk of long - end bond price corrections [96].

研究中心宏观团队 2025/05/30 | | 全 球 资 产 市 场 表 现 | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 主要经济体10年期国债收益率 | | | | | | | | | | | 美国 | 英国 | 法国 | 德国 | 意大利 | 西班牙 | 瑞士 | 希腊 | | 2025/05/29 | 4.420 | 4.647 | 3.176 | 2.506 | 3.488 | 3.109 | - | 3.230 | | 最新变化 | -0.060 | -0.079 | -0.047 | -0.047 | -0.046 | -0.045 | - | -0.047 | | 一周变化 | -0.110 | -0.102 | -0.144 | -0.136 | -0.163 | -0.148 | - | -0.148 | | 一月变化 | 0.210 | 0.139 | -0.060 | -0.013 | -0.139 | -0.071 | - | -0.117 | | 一年变化 | 0.007 | 0 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese capital market is transitioning into a "system-integrated opening" phase, enhancing systematic openness across stock, bond, and futures markets to drive comprehensive transformation [2][6]. Group 1: Current State of Market Openness - Since the initiation of the QFII system in 2002, China's capital market has evolved through various stages of openness, with significant milestones including the launch of the Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect in 2014 [2]. - The stock, bond, and futures markets have achieved deep integration with international markets through diverse mechanisms, creating a multi-dimensional openness framework [2]. Group 2: Challenges in Market Coordination - Despite notable progress, there are issues in each market's openness, and the synergistic effects among the markets have not been fully realized [3]. - Differences in regulatory frameworks and policies across the stock, bond, and futures markets hinder effective resource allocation and cross-border capital flow monitoring [3]. Group 3: Recommendations for Enhanced Coordination - Establish a unified planning framework to coordinate openness policies across the three markets, creating a "trinity" policy framework and enhancing international policy coordination [4]. - Improve the interconnectivity of market infrastructures to create a unified cross-border clearing and settlement platform, enhancing capital market efficiency and international competitiveness [4]. Group 4: Product Innovation and Education - Promote product innovation and business collaboration among the three markets to enhance cross-border circulation mechanisms, balancing risk and return across different asset classes [5]. - Strengthen investor education and service collaboration to provide comprehensive support for both domestic and foreign investors, integrating various educational resources into a unified platform [5]. Group 5: Cross-Border Regulation and Risk Management - Enhance cross-border regulatory cooperation and establish a financial risk monitoring and early warning system to manage cross-border capital flows effectively [5]. - The coordinated opening of the three markets is essential for high-quality development of China's capital market, aiming to break the negative cycle of market segmentation and efficiency loss [6].

5月29日，债市出现调整，银行间主要现券收益率上行1~2bp，国债期货全线下跌，但央行继续净投放 OMO，资金面保持均衡偏宽松状态。据央视新闻报道，美国国际贸易法院叫停美国总统特朗普的"解放 日"关税，并裁定特朗普越权，受此影响风险偏好大幅抬升，股强债弱。短期来看，月末资金面预计保 持偏宽松状态，美国关税缓和对风险偏好的提振预计仍会持续并压制债市，关注今日公告的5月央行买 断式逆回购和买卖国债情况以及即将公布的5月制造业PMI数据，债市预计维持震荡状态。 经过本周的债市调整，收益率性价比已经较高，市场对于关税缓和的定价也较为充分，目前收益率处于 较好的配置区间，后续有望逐步下行。 今日恰逢端午假期前最后一个交易日，场内往往交易活跃，可关注场内折溢价机会和假日票息收益。 政金债券ETF（511520）昨日净流入超5亿元，总规模超478亿元，为全市场规模最大的债券ETF，同时 也是全市场唯一一只长久期政金债ETF，久期7.5年左右，流动性好，适合客户场内一键加久期，可作 为债券市场波段交易和配置的好工具。 相关产品：政金债券ETF（511520）、富国中债7-10年政策性金融债ETF联接（A类：018266；C类 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the fluctuations in the bond market following the LPR reduction on May 20, 2025, with a notable increase in the issuance of special government bonds [1] - The 10-year government bond yield rose by 4.2 basis points to 1.72% compared to the previous week, indicating a recovery in the yield curve [1] - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield increased by 8.0 basis points to 4.51%, raising concerns about the sustainability of U.S. fiscal policy due to the Trump tax cuts, which widened the interest rate differential between China and the U.S. [1] Group 2 - The R007 and DR007 interbank liquidity rates increased by 4.6 basis points and 4.4 basis points respectively, reflecting tightening liquidity conditions [1] - The Ten-Year Treasury ETF (511260) tracks the 10-year government bond index (H11077), which includes publicly issued and listed government bonds with a maturity of 6.5 to 10 years, serving as a benchmark for long-term government bond market performance [1]

Group 1: Open Market Operations - The central bank conducted a 7-day reverse repurchase operation on May 29, with a fixed rate of 1.40% and a total amount of 266 billion yuan, resulting in a net injection of 111.5 billion yuan for the day after accounting for maturing reverse repos [2]. Group 2: Funding Conditions - The funding environment remains loose, with a slight decrease in overnight pledged repo rates and a rise of over 2 basis points in 7-day pledged repo rates [4]. - The latest overnight financing rate in the U.S. is reported at 4.31% [6]. Group 3: Interbank Certificates of Deposit - The latest transaction for one-year interbank certificates of deposit in the secondary market is around 1.72%, showing little change from the previous day [7]. Group 4: Major Interbank Bond Yield Rates - The yield rates for various government bonds are as follows: - 1Y: 1.4750% - 2Y: 1.4850% - 3Y: 1.5100% - 5Y: 1.5525% - 7Y: 1.6400% - 10Y: 1.6875% [9]. Group 5: Recent City Investment Bonds - The trends and data regarding the yield spreads of AAA-rated city investment bonds across different maturities were discussed [10]. Group 6: Government Bond Futures - The closing prices for government bond futures indicate a decline: - 30-year main contract down 0.65% - 10-year main contract down 0.26% - 5-year main contract down 0.15% - 2-year main contract down 0.06% [13]. Group 7: Key News Insights - The Ministry of Commerce spokesperson indicated ongoing communications between China and the U.S. regarding trade concerns, particularly around semiconductor export controls [14]. - The National Bureau of Statistics is working on guidelines for data element applications to enhance digital infrastructure [14]. Group 8: Global Macro Developments - The International Trade Court in Manhattan has blocked Trump's "liberation day" tariffs, ruling that he overstepped his authority [16]. Group 9: Bond Market Events - The Ministry of Finance plans to issue 71 billion yuan in long-term special government bonds [19]. - The issuance of Sci-Tech bonds has exceeded 300 billion yuan in 20 days, with significant contributions from banking institutions [19].

美国国债七年期收益率最新报4.19%，在七年期国债拍卖后下降约2个基点。 ...

美国财政部拍卖440亿美元七年期国债，得标利率4.194%（4月24日报4.123%），投标倍数2.69（前次为 2.55）。 ...

Group 1 - The core point of the article is that the yield on the 7-year U.S. Treasury auction reached 4.194%, an increase from the previous yield of 4.12% [1]

Group 1 - The core point of the article highlights that the bid-to-cover ratio for the U.S. Treasury auction as of May 29 reached 3.07, an increase from the previous value of 2.89 [1]