202[Table_ReportInfo] 6 年 02 月 25 日 证券研究报告•金融工程专题报告 资产配置研究系列三 基于 BLACK-LITTERMAN 模型 融合资产择时与风格轮动的资产配置研究 在全球经济周期缩短、地缘政治冲突与技术革命叠加的背景下，市场"不确定性" 已成为投资管理的核心挑战，构建抗脆弱的组合是资本稳健增值的关键。传统均 值-方差模型（MVO）虽为资产配置基石，却因输入参数敏感性高、难以系统融合 主观观点而受限。Black-Litterman（BL）模型通过贝叶斯方法将市场均衡收益与 投资者观点结合，在量化严谨性中兼容主观判断，为机构资产配置提供新范式。 本文基于 BL模型原理，构建"战略+战术"双轮驱动的资产配置模型。战略端以 资产择时与回归分析生成资产收益后验分布，提升配置决策的前瞻性；战术端设 计 A股风格轮动策略，动态跟踪市场风格切换优化投资组合，增强 A股资产收益 表现。模型实现了长期战略配置与短期战术调整的有机结合，为大类资产配置提 供了系统性解决方案。 资产择时层 债券端立足经济基本面（经济增长、地产周期）与市场利率（质押回购、国债利 率）择时中债国债；商品端围绕黄金 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints - The report presents several ETF strategy indices constructed by Huabao Research and tracks their performance and positions on a weekly basis, aiming to help investors convert quantitative models or subjective views into practical investment strategies [11] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 ETF Strategy Index Tracking - **Overall Performance**: The table shows the performance of various ETF strategy indices last week. The Huabao Research Quantitative Windmill ETF Strategy Index had the highest weekly excess return of 2.56%, while the Huabao Research SmartBeta Enhanced ETF Strategy Index had the lowest weekly excess return of -2.76% [12] 3.1.1 Huabao Research Size Rotation ETF Strategy Index - **Strategy**: It uses multi - dimensional technical indicator factors and a machine - learning model to predict the return difference between the Shenwan Large - Cap Index and the Shenwan Small - Cap Index. It outputs weekly signals to predict the strength of the indices in the next week and determines positions accordingly to obtain excess returns [13] - **Performance**: As of 2026/1/30, the excess return since 2024 was 29.34%, the excess return in the past month was 5.89%, and the excess return in the past week was - 1.86%. The index's positions include 50% in the CSI 500ETF and 50% in the CSI 1000ETF [13][17] 3.1.2 Huabao Research SmartBeta Enhanced ETF Strategy Index - **Strategy**: It uses price - volume indicators to time self - built Barra factors and maps timing signals to ETFs based on their exposure to 9 major Barra factors to achieve market - outperforming returns. The selected ETFs cover mainstream broad - based index ETFs and some style and strategy ETFs [17] - **Performance**: As of 2026/1/30, the excess return since 2024 was 20.15%, the excess return in the past month was - 2.11%, and the excess return in the past week was - 2.76%. The index's positions are mainly in several science - innovation and growth - style ETFs [17] 3.1.3 Huabao Research Quantitative Windmill ETF Strategy Index - **Strategy**: It starts from a multi - factor perspective, including the grasp of medium - to - long - term fundamentals, tracking of short - term market trends, and analysis of the behavior of various market participants. It uses valuation and crowding signals to indicate industry risks and multi - dimensionally digs out potential sectors to obtain excess returns [20] - **Performance**: As of 2026/1/30, the excess return since 2024 was 51.39%, the excess return in the past month was 6.51%, and the excess return in the past week was 2.56%. The index's positions are mainly in commodity - related and financial - related ETFs [20][25] 3.1.4 Huabao Research Quantitative Balance ETF Strategy Index - **Strategy**: It adopts a multi - factor system, including economic fundamentals, liquidity, technical analysis, and investor behavior factors, to construct a quantitative timing system for trend analysis of the equity market. It also builds a prediction model for market large - and small - cap styles to adjust the equity market position distribution and obtain excess returns through comprehensive timing and rotation [24] - **Performance**: As of 2026/1/30, the excess return since 2024 was - 10.24%, the excess return in the past month was 0.48%, and the excess return in the past week was - 0.36%. The index's positions include bonds and equity - based ETFs [24][27] 3.1.5 Huabao Research Hot - Spot Tracking ETF Strategy Index - **Strategy**: It uses strategies such as market sentiment analysis, tracking of major industry events, investor sentiment and professional opinions, policy and regulatory changes, and historical analysis to track and dig out hot - spot index target products in a timely manner, constructing an ETF portfolio that can capture market hot spots and providing short - term market trend references for investors [27] - **Performance**: As of 2026/1/30, the excess return in the past month was 6.21%, and the excess return in the past week was 3.21%. The index's positions are mainly in commodity, Hong - Kong - stock, and short - term financing ETFs [27][30] 3.1.6 Huabao Research Bond ETF Duration Strategy Index - **Strategy**: It uses bond market liquidity and price - volume indicators to screen effective timing factors and predicts bond yields through machine - learning methods. When the expected yield is below a certain threshold, it reduces the long - duration positions in the bond investment portfolio to improve long - term returns and drawdown control [30] - **Performance**: As of 2026/1/30, the excess return in the past month was 0.40%, and the excess return in the past week was 0.14%. The index's positions are mainly in bond - related ETFs [30][33]

2026年1月7日，政金债券ETF（511520.SH）收跌0.09%，主力资金（单笔成交额100万元以上）净流出 2.10亿元，居全市场第一梯队。（数据来源：Wind） 拉长时间看，该基金近4天主力资金加速流出，合计流出6.16亿元，居全市场第一梯队。（数据来源： Wind） 与此同时，该基金最新成交量为2411.53万份，最新成交额跌破28.00亿元，全市场排名较上一交易日下 降19位。 政金债券ETF（511520.SH），场外联接(A类：018266；C类：018267；E类：019596；F类： 022102）。 ...

与此同时，该基金最新成交量为3432.07万份，最新成交额突破39.00亿元，居全市场第一梯队。 政金债券ETF（511520.SH），场外联接(A类：018266；C类：018267；E类：019596；F类： 022102）。 2025年12月26日，政金债券ETF（511520.SH）收涨0.03%，主力资金（单笔成交额100万元以上）净流 入1.98亿元，居全市场第一梯队。（数据来源：Wind） 拉长时间看，该基金近4天主力资金连续流入，合计流入8.44亿元，居全市场第一梯队。（数据来源： Wind） ...

Core Insights - The bond ETF market is transitioning from a "supporting role" to a "leading role" in the financial market, with total assets surpassing 700 billion yuan as of November 3, marking a historic growth rate [1][2] Market Growth and Product Innovation - As of November 3, the total scale of bond ETFs exceeded 700 billion yuan, reflecting a growth of 520.06 billion yuan since the beginning of the year, representing an increase of 289% [2] - The bond ETF market has seen rapid expansion, with 53 products currently available, 32 of which were launched this year, indicating strong demand for new products [2] - The number of bond ETFs with over 10 billion yuan in assets has increased significantly, with 30 products now exceeding this threshold, compared to 21 in mid-July [2] Key Drivers of Growth - Newly listed credit bond ETFs and technology innovation bond ETFs have been significant contributors to the growth in scale [3] - The unique advantages of bond ETFs, such as tracking bond indices, stable duration and credit risk exposure, transparency, and lower fees, have made them increasingly attractive to investors [3] Policy Support and Market Opportunities - Policy support has been crucial for the development of bond ETFs, with initiatives aimed at enhancing market efficiency and expanding product coverage [4] - The inclusion of bond ETFs in general pledge-style repurchase business has significantly increased their attractiveness [4] - Approximately 85% of bond ETFs are held by institutional investors, with broad-based funds being the largest group [4] Market Dynamics and Future Potential - The bond ETF market is undergoing a transformation, with increasing participation from individual investors, particularly in index funds [6] - Institutional investors remain optimistic about the future value of bond ETFs, expecting a continued bullish trend in the bond market [6] - Compared to mature markets like the U.S., China's bond ETF market has significant growth potential, with current market penetration rates being lower [6] Recommendations for Market Expansion - Suggestions for expanding the bond ETF market include diversifying the investor base and enriching product categories to fill existing gaps [7] - There is potential for growth in areas such as comprehensive bond strategies, green bonds, and central enterprise themes [7] - The rapid development of bond ETFs reflects a broader trend in the deepening of China's financial markets, positioning them as essential tools for asset allocation [7]

Core Insights - The total scale of bond ETFs has officially surpassed 700 billion yuan, marking the sixth "billion" milestone achieved this year [1][2] - Over 70% of the current scale was added in 2025, with 32 out of 53 products launched this year, accounting for more than 60% [1] - The bond ETF market has seen a net inflow of approximately 4.23 billion yuan, contributing significantly to the overall ETF market's net inflow of around 9.8 billion yuan [5][7] Growth of Bond ETFs - As of November 3, the total scale of bond ETFs reached 700.44 billion yuan, having increased by 1 billion yuan since late September [2] - The bond ETF market has consistently broken through multiple thresholds since early 2025, with significant growth observed in the number of products and their individual scales [2][3] - The number of bond ETF products has increased to 53, with a total scale of 700.44 billion yuan, of which 520.58 billion yuan is new growth this year, representing 74.29% of the total [3] Product Performance - Among the 53 bond ETFs, 30 have surpassed 10 billion yuan in scale, with 9 exceeding 20 billion yuan [4] - The largest bond ETF is the short-term bond ETF from Hai Fu Tong Fund, exceeding 65 billion yuan, followed by several others with significant scales [4] - The variety of bond ETFs has expanded to include convertible bonds, government bonds, corporate bonds, and more, with a notable increase in the number of sci-tech bond ETFs launched recently [4] Market Trends - The continuous inflow of funds into bond ETFs indicates a strong market trend, with 45 out of 53 products experiencing net inflows this year [5][7] - The trend towards multi-asset ETFs with a focus on bonds is expected to grow, with companies likely to lead in this area due to their first-mover advantage [5][8] - The bond ETF market is compared to the rapid growth of stock ETFs a few years ago, suggesting a similar trajectory for future development [9] Future Outlook - There is a prevailing sentiment that the scale of bond ETFs could theoretically surpass that of stock ETFs, given the larger underlying asset base in the bond market [9][10] - Factors influencing this potential growth include the performance of actively managed bond funds and the management costs associated with bond ETFs [10]

Core Insights - The total scale of bond ETFs has surpassed 700 billion yuan, reaching 700.44 billion yuan as of November 3, marking an increase of 520.58 billion yuan since the beginning of the year [1] Group 1: Market Overview - As of now, there are 53 bond ETF products available, with 32 of them being newly added in the current year [1] - More than 50% of the bond ETFs, specifically 30 products, have a scale exceeding 10 billion yuan [1] Group 2: Leading Products - The top three bond ETFs by scale are: - Short-term bond ETF from Hai Fu Tong Fund with over 66 billion yuan - Convertible bond ETF from Bosera Fund with over 58 billion yuan - Government bond ETF from Fortune Fund with over 40 billion yuan [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the government bond ETF (511520.SH) experienced a slight decline of 0.13% on September 29, 2025, while attracting significant net inflow of 211 million yuan from major funds, ranking it among the top in the market [1] - Over the past three days, the fund has seen accelerated inflows totaling 508 million yuan, maintaining its position in the top tier of the market [2] - The latest trading volume for the fund reached 44.6321 million units, with a total transaction amount of 5.088 billion yuan, also placing it in the top tier of the market [3]

Group 1 - The second batch of Sci-Tech Innovation Bond ETFs will be listed on September 24, with 14 public funds participating in the issuance, following the first batch launched on July 17 [1] - The total issuance scale of the second batch of 14 Sci-Tech Innovation Bond ETFs reaches 40.786 billion yuan, with 13 of them exceeding 2.9 billion yuan each [1] - The total scale of Sci-Tech Innovation Bond ETFs has surpassed 170 billion yuan, while the overall scale of bond ETFs has exceeded 600 billion yuan for the first time [1] Group 2 - The largest bond ETFs include Convertible Bond ETF at 59.218 billion yuan, Short-term Bond ETF at 58.516 billion yuan, and Policy Financial Bond ETF at 45.615 billion yuan [3] - Other notable bond ETFs include 30-Year Treasury Bond ETF at 30.895 billion yuan and City Investment Bond ETF at 24.767 billion yuan [3] - The newly launched Sci-Tech Innovation Bond ETFs are expected to enhance the liquidity and market presence of bond ETFs [8] Group 3 - According to Guotai Junan Securities, the ticket interest strategy will dominate from 2025 onwards, with Sci-Tech Innovation Bond ETFs showing resilience during market adjustments [7] - The performance of actively managed pure bond funds indicates that short-term bonds outperform medium to long-term bonds, and credit bonds are favored over interest rate bonds [7] - The liquidity of bond ETFs is expected to improve as the current market environment gradually stabilizes [7] Group 4 - The new sales fee regulations by the China Securities Regulatory Commission are anticipated to create greater development opportunities for bond ETFs [8] - The proposed changes in redemption fees may lead to a shift in institutional investment from interest rate bond funds to bond ETFs, enhancing their attractiveness [8]

Core Insights - The domestic bond ETF market has reached a new milestone, with the total scale surpassing 607.44 billion yuan, marking a growth of over 2.4 times since the beginning of the year [1][2] - A significant influx of over 374 billion yuan has been observed in bond ETFs this year, accounting for more than 40% of the total net inflow in the ETF market [2][4] - The number of bond ETFs with over 10 billion yuan in assets has expanded to 25, indicating a concentration of leading products in the market [2][5] Market Dynamics - Institutional investors hold nearly 80% of the bond ETF shares, including banks, insurance funds, and pension funds, highlighting the importance of these products for liquidity management and asset allocation [4] - The introduction of innovative products like the Sci-Tech bond ETFs has diversified the bond ETF offerings, catering to various risk preferences among investors [5][6] - The bond ETF market is still in a rapid expansion phase, with potential growth to reach over 1 trillion yuan in the future, based on comparisons with mature overseas markets [5][6] Performance Analysis - The performance of Sci-Tech bonds has been notably strong, with better resilience in bear markets and higher yield elasticity in bull markets, supported by favorable policies [6] - The current market share of bond index funds in pure bond funds is approximately 15%, while the ETF share within bond index funds is around 34%, indicating significant room for growth compared to the U.S. market [3][4]