我做中长线这么多年，总跟大家说不用盯着短期涨跌慌神，像稀土这种战略资源，提价加业绩预增的组合，其实是在给咱们释放信号：看板块得看底层逻 辑，这种有稳定定价机制、基本面能跟上的标的，才值得多花心思跟踪。 最近刷公告时，北方稀土和包钢股份那则提价消息，我第一时间就划重点了，这可不是小打小闹的调整，得跟大家好好聊聊。 今天就跟大家聊到这，后续稀土板块的动向我也会接着盯，有新观察再跟各位分享。我是帮主郑重，咱们下次接着聊#A股#里的机会。 更让咱们A股投资者上心的是，北方稀土紧跟着就放了业绩预告——前三季度归母净利润预计15到15.7亿，同比涨了272%到287%，扣非净利润增速更猛， 快400%到420%了！这业绩跟提价的联动，明眼人都能看出门道，毕竟稀土精矿的定价机制已经运行两年多，每季度按公式调整，不是临时炒作，这才是基 本面支撑的实在动静。 昨天看公告里写，2025年第四季度稀土精矿价格调到了不含税26205元/吨，环比一下涨了37%！要知道之前四次提价，幅度最高也就6.2%，这次直接把力度 拉满，而且这已经是连续第五次上调了，从最早的16741元/吨一路涨上来，趋势很明显。 ...

10月10日晚间，一则消息在资本市场和稀土行业激起千层浪。 | 股票代码:600010 债券代码:175793 | | | --- | --- | | 股票简称:包钢股份 债券简称:GC钢联01 | 编号:(临)2025-067 | 北方稀土、包钢股份同日发布公告，上调2025年第四季度稀土精矿关联交易价格。两家公司拟将2025年第四季度稀土精矿关联交易价格调整为 不含税26205元/吨（干量，REO=50%）。REO每增减1%，不含税价格增减524.10元/吨。 根据此前公告，近一年以来，稀土精矿交易价格持续上调。其中，第三季度稀土精矿交易价格调整为不含税19109元/吨。由此测算，第四季度 的稀土价格环比上涨了37.13%。 稀土精矿价格大幅上调 包钢股份发布公告称，根据2022年年度股东大会审议通过的稀土精矿价格调整机制及计算公式，公司拟将2025年第四季度稀土精矿关联交易价 格调整为不含税26205元/吨（干量，REO=50%）。REO每增减1%，不含税价格增减524.10元/吨。 同日，北方稀土也公告称，根据稀土精矿定价方法及2025年第三季度稀土氧化物价格，经测算并经公司总经理办公会审议通过，20 ...

Group 1 - The U.S. stock market experienced a significant decline, with major indices falling sharply, including the Nasdaq dropping over 3%, marking its largest single-day decline since April [1][2] - Large-cap tech stocks were heavily impacted, with notable declines in companies such as TSMC ADR down over 6%, and Tesla, Nvidia, and Amazon all falling more than 4% [4] - Chinese concept stocks also suffered, with the Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index dropping over 6%, and companies like Futu Holdings and NIO seeing declines exceeding 10% [5] Group 2 - The global financial markets faced widespread sell-offs, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average plunging over 880 points at one point, closing down 1.9% [2] - European markets also experienced declines, with the Euro Stoxx 50 Index falling 1.75% and major indices in Germany, France, and Italy dropping over 1% [5] - Commodities such as oil and cryptocurrencies were severely affected, with WTI crude oil falling over 4% and Bitcoin experiencing a drop of over 13% [5] Group 3 - The uncertainty in the market has led to increased demand for protective derivatives, with investors shifting towards safe-haven assets like gold and U.S. Treasuries [6] - Gold prices rose over 1%, surpassing $4000 per ounce, while the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury fell to 4.034% [6] Group 4 - Analysts noted that the market had built up significant profit-taking potential due to a strong performance since April, leading to expectations of a correction [7] - The U.S. government shutdown has escalated, with the Trump administration implementing large-scale permanent layoffs of federal employees, affecting thousands across multiple departments [7][8] - The Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index for October was reported at 55, the lowest since May, indicating stagnant consumer confidence amid expectations of rising unemployment and inflation [9]

Core Points - China has implemented new export regulations on rare earth materials, causing concern in both the US and Europe [1][2] - The new regulations require foreign companies to obtain approval from China for exporting rare earth magnets and certain semiconductor materials that contain Chinese components [5][6] - The timing of these regulations coincides with upcoming negotiations between the US and China, highlighting China's strategic leverage in trade discussions [8] Group 1: Regulatory Impact - The new regulations cover rare earth magnets and semiconductor materials containing 0.1% or more of Chinese rare earth components, effective from December 1 [5][6] - China controls approximately 70% of global rare earth mining, 90% of separation and processing, and 93% of magnet manufacturing, underscoring its dominance in the sector [4][5] Group 2: International Reactions - Germany's government is in discussions with affected companies and EU partners regarding the implications of China's new regulations [2] - The EU has expressed concerns over China's export restrictions, emphasizing the need for reliable supply chains for critical raw materials [2] Group 3: Strategic Considerations - Analysts suggest that China's export controls are a strategic move to enhance its bargaining position in trade negotiations with the US [8] - The regulations are seen as a response to previous US tariffs and efforts to reduce reliance on Chinese supply chains, further complicating the geopolitical landscape [6][8]

Core Insights - China has shifted its focus from merely discussing the export of rare earth minerals to emphasizing the importance of core technologies in the rare earth industry, signaling a transformative change in the global rare earth landscape [4][14] - The new regulations create a "technical Great Wall," restricting not only the export of equipment but also the entire knowledge system of the rare earth industry, including mining, refining, and application processes [5][7] - This strategic move comes at a time when the U.S. government is facing internal chaos, thereby weakening its ability to exert external pressure, making it an opportune moment for China to assert its technological dominance [9][11] Industry Implications - The regulations effectively prevent foreign entities from accessing critical technologies, making it difficult for other countries to replicate China's rare earth industry, thus locking in China's competitive advantage [7][12] - The announcement challenges the U.S. strategy of diversifying rare earth supply chains through partnerships, particularly with countries like Pakistan, by highlighting that possessing raw materials alone is insufficient without the necessary processing technologies [13][14] - This move serves as a wake-up call for countries reliant on single-source technology solutions, urging them to reassess their vulnerabilities in critical technology sectors [15] Strategic Shift - China's proactive approach in defining new competitive rules marks a significant strategic upgrade, moving from a reactive stance to one that shapes the global narrative around technology sovereignty [18] - The emphasis on controlling core technologies over merely possessing natural resources indicates a profound shift in the balance of power in global trade and technology [18]

不同于石油等自然资源，稀土产业的技术壁垒在于加工。从选矿到分离稀土氧化物，再到冶炼分离单一 金属及成品加工，每一步都有极高技术含量。稀土最终产品的纯度对永磁体等下游材料性能起决定性作 用。以当前热门的具身智能和新能源车为例，电动车的主驱动电机、车门雨刮器电机，以及机器人关节 电机，其内部永磁体的核心要素都是稀土。 进一步收紧稀土管制并非仅因双边经贸摩擦。20世纪80年代末，《外交季刊》发表《科学技术与国家主 权》一文，提出"科学、技术、经济和政治等各方面变化过快，使国家主权与实力构成的屏障开始改 变"。此后，"技术主权"逐渐成为"国家主权"概念集合中的新成员。在全球技术主权竞争日益白热化的 当下，实现战略领域核心技术与产业链自主掌控、捍卫"技术主权"，具有事关未来生存发展的重大战略 意义，而稀土正是中国最具代表性的"技术主权"之一。 稀土出口管制升级：技术主权再强化！10月9日，商务部发布第61号和第62号公告，对稀土全产业链相 关技术出口实施审批监管，形成更广泛的管制闭环。公告显示，前者将含中国成分的境外稀土物项纳入 许可管理，填补了"转口用于军事敏感领域"的漏洞；后者全面管控稀土全产业链技术出口，从开采工 ...

Market Overview - The U.S. stock market experienced a significant decline, with the Nasdaq and S&P 500 indices recording their largest single-day drops since April 10, 2023 [1][2] - The Nasdaq index fell by 3.56% to 22,204.43 points, while the S&P 500 dropped by 2.71% to 6,552.51 points, marking a weekly decline of 2.43% for the S&P 500 and 2.53% for the Nasdaq [2] Technology Sector - Major technology stocks saw substantial losses, with the "Big Seven" tech index down by 3.65% [3] - Individual stocks such as Tesla, Amazon, and Nvidia each fell over 5%, while Facebook and Apple dropped more than 3% [3] Chinese Stocks - Chinese stocks also faced significant declines, with the Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index down by 6.1% [4] - Alibaba's stock fell by 8.45%, and other companies like Bilibili and Baidu saw declines exceeding 8% [4] Commodity Prices - International oil prices dropped sharply, with U.S. crude futures down 4.24% to $58.90 per barrel, and Brent crude futures falling nearly 3.82% to $62.73 per barrel [5] - In contrast, spot gold prices increased by over 1%, reaching a high of $4,022.901 per ounce [5] Federal Employment and Economic Outlook - The Trump administration confirmed the initiation of large-scale federal employee layoffs, with 200,000 federal employees already reduced this year and an additional 100,000 expected by year-end [6] - The likelihood of the U.S. government shutdown extending beyond 30 days has increased, with predictions now at 37% [6] Federal Reserve Insights - Federal Reserve officials expressed a willingness to consider further interest rate cuts as a precaution against a weakening labor market, with inflation significantly above target levels [7] - The labor market is perceived to be in a negative growth phase, prompting discussions on the need for cautious policy adjustments [7]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. stock market experienced a significant decline, with the Nasdaq and S&P 500 indices recording their largest single-day drops since April 10, driven by a provocative statement from former President Trump [1][3]. Market Performance - The Nasdaq Composite Index fell by 3.56%, closing at 22,204.43 points, while the S&P 500 Index dropped by 2.71%, ending at 6,552.51 points, marking their largest single-day declines since April 10 [3][4]. - For the week, the S&P 500 Index decreased by 2.43%, the largest weekly drop since June, and the Nasdaq Index fell by 2.53%, the largest weekly decline since April [3][4]. Major Stock Movements - Major technology stocks saw significant declines, with the Wande American Technology Seven Giants Index dropping by 3.65%. Notable individual stock performances included: - Tesla down over 5% - Amazon down over 5% - Nvidia down nearly 5% - Apple and Facebook down over 3% - Microsoft down over 2% - Google down nearly 2% [11][12]. Chinese Stocks Performance - Chinese stocks also faced substantial losses, with the Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index falling by 6.1%. Key declines included: - Alibaba down 8.45% - Bilibili down over 9% - Baidu and Xpeng down over 8% - JD.com down over 6% [13][14]. Commodity Market - International oil prices saw a notable decline, with U.S. crude futures dropping by 4.24% to $58.90 per barrel, and Brent crude futures falling by nearly 3.82% to $62.73 per barrel. Gold prices, however, increased by over 1% [16][15].

Group 1 - The U.S. has recently intensified actions against Chinese companies in trade, including placing multiple Chinese entities on an export control "blacklist" [1][3] - The U.S. Department of Commerce added 29 organizations from China, Turkey, and the UAE to the export control list, with 26 being Chinese companies, due to violations of U.S. national security and foreign policy, particularly related to supplying drone components to Iran [3][4] - This move creates trade barriers, requiring U.S. companies to obtain special licenses to transact with these entities, which complicates the approval process [3][4] Group 2 - The U.S. is motivated by strategic considerations regarding rare earth resources, with China controlling approximately 90% of global rare earth processing capacity, essential for defense and high-tech industries [4][10] - A significant cooperation agreement was signed between the U.S. and Pakistan for mineral resources, valued at $500 million, focusing on exploring and developing rare earths and other strategic minerals [5][7] - The first phase of this agreement has commenced, with nearly 2 tons of minerals being shipped from Pakistan to the U.S. [7] Group 3 - In response to U.S. actions, China announced stringent export controls on rare earth-related items and technologies, deemed the "strictest ever," requiring licenses for any related exports [8][9] - These controls encompass the entire technology chain of rare earth production, impacting not only mining but also processing and manufacturing [9][10] - The new regulations create significant challenges for U.S. companies and allies, as they must navigate complex approval processes for using Chinese technology in rare earth production [10][11] Group 4 - The U.S. faces a critical situation where shortages of rare earths could directly impact its defense industry and major tech companies, leading to production delays and increased costs [12] - While the cooperation with Pakistan offers some hope, China's export controls effectively close this loophole, making it difficult for the U.S. to reduce reliance on Chinese technology [12] - The situation highlights the need for the U.S. to invest in domestic mining and supply chain development, which will take years to yield results [12]

Core Viewpoint - China Northern Rare Earth (Group) High-Tech Co., Ltd. expects a significant increase in net profit for the first three quarters of 2025, projecting a rise of over 272% compared to the same period last year [2][3]. Performance Forecast - The company anticipates a net profit attributable to shareholders of the parent company between 1.51 billion yuan and 1.57 billion yuan, an increase of 1.105 billion yuan to 1.165 billion yuan year-on-year, representing a growth of 272.54% to 287.34% [2][3]. - The expected net profit after deducting non-recurring gains and losses is projected to be between 1.33 billion yuan and 1.39 billion yuan, an increase of 1.064 billion yuan to 1.124 billion yuan year-on-year, reflecting a growth of 399.90% to 422.46% [2][3]. Previous Year’s Performance - In the same period last year, the total profit was 1.0039735 billion yuan, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 0.4053247 billion yuan and a net profit after deducting non-recurring gains and losses of 0.2660514 billion yuan [5]. Reasons for Performance Increase - The company has effectively adapted to market changes, focusing on strategic planning and enhancing operational efficiency, which has contributed to the substantial growth in performance [6]. - The company has implemented a green development philosophy and a user-first quality approach, optimizing production and marketing strategies to meet high-value product demands [7]. - Significant advancements in research and development have been made, with numerous national and regional projects undertaken, enhancing the company's technological capabilities [7].