Core Viewpoint - The metal market is experiencing volatility, but the fundamental demand for metals like copper and gold remains strong despite recent price fluctuations [1][2]. Group 1: Gold Market Insights - Gold prices have seen significant volatility, with a recent surge leading to a 140% increase in the VanEck Gold Miners ETF over the past 12 months, while gold prices rose by 64% [1]. - The recent price drop has caused psychological impacts on the market, with gold prices shifting from around $3,000 to nearly $5,000 per ounce, leading to a decline in mining stocks [2]. - Despite the price corrections, the macroeconomic position of gold is expected to remain unchanged due to ongoing global economic divisions, trade protectionism, and geopolitical tensions [2][3]. Group 2: Copper Market Insights - Copper is viewed as the most attractive long-term asset in the metals sector, with a significant global supply shortage expected to persist [4]. - Factors such as electrification, defense spending, grid expansion, and supply chain reshoring are driving copper demand, while current production capacity is insufficient to meet this demand [4][5]. - The approval processes for new mining projects are lengthy, and existing mines are facing declining ore grades, with few major discoveries in recent years [6][7]. Group 3: Investment Strategies - The recent market adjustments have highlighted a divide between institutional traders and retail investors, with hedge funds profiting from volatility while retail investors struggle [7]. - Long-term investors are advised to focus on companies with strong projects and reliable funding sources, maintaining a long-term perspective on metal cycles [7][8]. - It is suggested that investors take profits during high market sentiment and consider re-investing during significant market corrections, as the financial health of major producers remains robust [8][9].

她还称："即便是电网相关订单，增速也在放缓。"作为亚洲最大经济体，电网建设是中国铜消费的重要 支柱。 涵盖伦敦金属交易所六大主要商品的LMEX指数今年已上涨约7%，逼近2022年创下的历史高位。伦铜 基准期货一度触及每吨13185美元，略低于本月早些时候的纪录;伦铝创三年新高，沪铝则刷新历史峰 值。 高盛近日表示，受价格飙升、市场看涨情绪与制造业实际需求走弱的现实形成背离影响，今年基本金属 的涨势将迎来阻力。 高盛股票研究联席主管Trina Chen在接受采访时表示："产业链下游的实际生产企业已开始出现抵触反 应，我们观察到需求端正出现一定程度的回落。" 2026年开年数周，受全球投资者押注供应趋紧、美元走弱以及美联储降息，大举涌入工业大宗商品市场 影响，铜、铝等各类金属价格一路走高。但业内偏谨慎的分析师已关注到中国市场的相关交易活跃度正 持续走弱。 Chen透露，高盛最新的铜市场调研显示，随着消费电子、五金制品等行业的下游需求方缩减采购，加 工企业的订单量已下滑10%至30%。 Chen分析道："当前金属价格的高位运行，既依托基本面的支撑，也受资金流向与宏观市场环境的推 动。但在价格急速上涨后，这些因素正逐 ...

Company and Industry Summary Industry: Mining and Metals Key Points - **Yulong Phase III and IV Development** Yulong Phase III is set to commence production by the end of 2026 with a capacity of 30 million tons and an expected copper output of 200,000 tons. Phase IV is already in planning, aiming for a total capacity of 45 million tons, with an additional 50,000 tons of copper output anticipated from this phase [1][1][1] - **Chating Resource Potential** The Chating resource is projected to be significant, with resource assessment expected to be completed by June 2026. Initial estimates suggest over 300 tons of gold and over 2 million tons of copper, with a planned annual production of over 80 tons of gold and 60,000 tons of copper based on a 30-year development cycle [1][1][1] - **New Management Initiatives** The new management is focused on activating existing resources and exploring new ones. The strategy includes internal resource optimization and acquiring 2-3 additional projects similar to Chating during the 14th Five-Year Plan [2][2][2] - **Silver Mining Potential** The company has a significant silver mining potential with 130 tons of silver, which could yield over 1 billion in profit by 2026 at an estimated price of 25 yuan per gram. This presents a substantial profit elasticity [2][2][2] - **Projected Company Valuation** With the production from Yulong Phase III and other projects, the company’s profit potential could exceed 70 billion, leading to an initial target market valuation of 100 billion based on a 15x earnings multiple [2][2][2] - **Jinhui Co. Growth Prospects** Jinhui Co. plans to produce 100,000 tons of lead and zinc along with 30 tons of silver in 2025. Current price estimates suggest a profit contribution of 600-700 million from lead and zinc, and over 400 million from silver, with a projected doubling of production and profits exceeding 2 billion by 2027 [2][2][2] - **Zhongse Co. Acquisition** Zhongse Co. has acquired the Raura zinc polymetallic mine in Peru, which has a rich silver resource of 1,872 tons and an annual production capacity of over 40 tons. The mine is expected to generate an annual profit of 160 million, with potential increases due to cost reductions and silver price hikes [3][3][3] - **Stock Recommendations** The current investment strategy suggests holding positions in gold, silver, tin, and nickel, with specific stock recommendations for each category. For gold, Zijin Mining and Shandong Gold are recommended, while for copper, Western Mining and Zijin are suggested [3][3][3] - **Electrolytic Aluminum Market Outlook** The electrolytic aluminum market is expected to see price increases, albeit at a slower rate compared to other metals. However, the lower stock valuations indicate potential for future growth [4][4][4]

从资金面来看，矿业ETF（561330）连续20日资金净流入超15亿元，规模突破30亿元，截至1月26日， 年初以来涨超28%。 （文章来源：每日经济新闻） 相关机构表示，金属牛市有望延续。铜方面，美国库存短期虹吸或有所减弱，但供给扰动持续，供需紧 张格局不改；锂方面，去库持续，供给侧扰动频发，部分矿停产确定性较高，2026年或由紧平衡转为去 库，支撑锂价上行。镍、锡等小金属在宽松宏观环境、供给端扰动、有色板块情绪支撑下也有望保持强 势。看好逆全球化与新需求共振下的有色板块投资价值。 矿业ETF（561330）跟踪的是有色矿业指数（931892），该指数从市场中选取涉及铜、铝、铅锌、稀有 金属等矿产资源开发业务的相关企业证券作为指数样本，以反映有色金属矿采选行业的整体表现。根据 wind数据，2025年全年，矿业ETF（561330）年内涨幅全市场ETF第三，有色类ETF第一，具备龙头更 集中，"黄金+铜+稀土"占比更高的特点。 ...

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the performance and outlook of various metal markets, including lithium, tungsten, tin, rare earths, gold, silver, and copper, indicating a bullish trend across the board with specific recommendations for investment opportunities. Lithium Market - Lithium carbonate prices have surged from 120,000 CNY to 180,000 CNY since the New Year, driven by supply constraints from Jiangxi mines and expectations of increased demand in the energy storage sector. The supply-demand mismatch is expected to persist into Q2, with the industry likely accepting prices above 150,000 CNY, benefiting companies like Zhongmin Resources, Shengxin Lithium Energy, and Dazhong Mining [1][4][5]. Tungsten Market - Tungsten prices are on an upward trend, supported by post-holiday demand and military applications. The tightening of supply quotas by the Ministry of Natural Resources has led to a favorable price transmission. Recommended stocks include Zhongtung High-tech, Xiamen Tungsten, and Xinjin Road [6][7]. Tin Market - The tin market remains tight due to lower-than-expected production increases from the Democratic Republic of Congo and Myanmar, alongside Indonesia's crackdown on illegal mining. The demand from electronics and AI sectors is expected to drive prices higher, with key recommendations being Xinjin Road, Xiyu Co., and Huaxi Nonferrous [8][9]. Rare Earth Market - Rare earths are currently the only strategic metal sector experiencing stagnation. Production cuts are evident, and demand is projected to grow by 10%. The supply-demand mismatch is reminiscent of the situation in 2025 with uranium mines, suggesting potential for price increases. Recommended stocks include Northern Rare Earth, China Rare Earth, and Jinli Permanent Magnet [10][11]. Gold and Silver Market - Gold prices have surpassed 5,000 USD per ounce, while silver has crossed the 100 USD mark. Central banks are increasing gold holdings as a substitute for US debt, and the inflow into gold ETFs has not yet reached previous levels, indicating significant upside potential. Recommended companies include Shanjin International, Zhongjin Gold, and China Hanwang for gold, and Energy Group, Replacement Shares, and Shengda Resources for silver [12][15]. Copper Market - Copper prices have been volatile but are expected to trend towards 120,000 CNY due to supply constraints and improved domestic purchasing intentions. The upcoming holiday season is likely to stimulate demand, with key companies to watch including Telecom Resources, Luoyang Molybdenum, and Zijin Mining [16][18][19]. Nickel Market - The nickel market has shown a rebound after a recent dip, influenced by strict policies in Indonesia and tight supply conditions. The price is expected to remain strong [21]. T Market - The T market is experiencing a price increase due to tight domestic supply and rising demand from the photovoltaic industry. The strategic importance of T is increasing, with recommendations for companies like Hunan Gold, Huayu Mining, and Huaxi Nonferrous [22][25][26]. Conclusion - The overall sentiment in the metals market is bullish, with various sectors showing strong growth potential. Investors are encouraged to focus on specific companies within these sectors to capitalize on the anticipated price increases and demand growth.

| 序号 类型 代码 名称 | 涨跌幅 ▼ | 年初至今 现价 | 涨跌 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 1 主 517400 黄金股票ETF | 6.95% | 37.07% 2.215 0.144 | | 5 | | 2 主 561330 矿业ETF | 5.37% | 27.46% 2.451 | 0.125 | 5 | | 3 主 159881 有色60ETF | 4.27% | 24.80% 2.320 | 0.095 | 1 | 数据来源：Wind，截至2026/1/26 下午14:15 现货黄金价格首次突破5100美元/盎司整数关口，黄金、有色金属板块大涨。黄金股票ETF盘中涨幅最高触及9.03%，矿业ETF盘中涨幅最高触及6.45%。 【上涨原因分析】 年初以来黄金股票的估值修复已经开始，但考虑到金价持续上涨，板块或仍处于相对低估水平。金价稳步上行也有利于黄金股票的估值修复，黄金股票ETF 或更具弹性。截至2026/1/23，黄金股票ETF（517400）年初至今涨幅28.16%，位居ETF年内涨幅榜前列。可以持续关注，逢低布局。（数据来源：Wind ...

ccmn沪镍走势：今日午盘后沪期镍横盘后小涨，沪期镍主力月2602合约开盘报149880元/吨，盘中最高 报152300元/吨，最低价报145310元/吨，收盘报145380元/吨，上涨360元/吨，涨幅为0.25%，沪镍主力 月2602主力合约成交量718003手。 据长江有色属网统计：1月26日ccmn长江综合1#镍价149850元/吨-158150元/吨，均价报154000元/吨，较 前一日价格上涨4100，长江现货1#镍报149900元/吨-158300元/吨，均价报154100元/吨，较前一日价格 上涨4150元，广东现货镍报157650元/吨-158050元/吨，均价报157850元/吨，较前一日价格上涨4600 元。 本观点仅供参考，不做操盘指引（长江有色金属网www.ccmn.cn） ccmn镍市分析：宏观面，今日镍价强势反弹，是宏观与地缘两大核心力量共振的结果。宏观层面，美 元持续走弱与全球流动性宽松预期共同构筑了金属牛市的基础。美元指数跌破97关口，创下阶段新低， 这不仅降低了以美元计价的镍的全球购买成本，更反映了资金从传统美元资产向大宗商品迁移的"大迁 徙"趋势。与此同时，国内稳增长政策 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the non-ferrous metals sector, indicating a positive outlook for investment opportunities in this industry [6]. Core Insights - The report highlights a bullish trend in precious metals, particularly silver, which has recently surpassed $100 per ounce, suggesting a continuation of the metal bull market [2]. - The report notes that macroeconomic factors, including geopolitical tensions and supply chain disruptions, are influencing metal prices, with a general upward trend observed across various metals [3][4][5][9]. Summary by Sections Precious Metals - Silver prices have surged, breaking the $100 mark, while gold is approaching $5000 per ounce, driven by increased market risk aversion due to geopolitical tensions [2]. - Key companies to watch include Xinyi Silver, Shengda Resources, and Zijin Mining [2]. Industrial Metals - Copper inventories have increased, with global copper stocks rising by 69,000 tons, indicating a potential supply-demand imbalance [3]. - The report mentions ongoing labor strikes affecting copper production in Chile, which could exacerbate market tensions [3]. - Suggested companies for investment include Zijin Mining and Western Mining [3]. Aluminum - The aluminum market is experiencing short-term price fluctuations due to macroeconomic policies and supply chain issues, with production capacity remaining stable [4]. - Companies to consider include China Hongqiao and Nanshan Aluminum [4]. Nickel - Nickel prices have risen by 4.7% to 148,010 yuan per ton, influenced by supply disruptions in Indonesia and macroeconomic liquidity [5]. - Recommended companies include Huayou Cobalt and Ganfeng Lithium [5][8]. Tin - Tin prices are supported by macroeconomic factors and supply chain bottlenecks, with demand from the electronics sector showing signs of recovery [8]. - Key companies include Hunan Tin and Yunnan Tin [8]. Lithium - Lithium prices continue to rise, with battery-grade lithium carbonate reaching 177,000 yuan per ton, driven by pre-holiday stockpiling and supply disruptions [9]. - Companies to watch include Ganfeng Lithium and Tianqi Lithium [9]. Cobalt - Cobalt prices have decreased by 3.7% to 437,000 yuan per ton, with supply disruptions easing but demand from downstream sectors weakening [10]. - Suggested companies include Huayou Cobalt and Tianqi Lithium [10].

Group 1: Gold Market Insights - The global gold price has reached a historic high of over $4600 per ounce, supported by central bank purchases and expectations of interest rate cuts [1][2] - Central banks have net purchased over 50 tons of gold in the first two weeks of January 2026, with China's central bank increasing its gold holdings for 14 consecutive months, providing strong support for gold prices [1] - Major financial institutions predict bullish targets for gold, with estimates ranging from $4200 to $5300 per ounce by the end of 2026, indicating a likely upward trend in the near term [2] Group 2: Silver Market Dynamics - Silver prices have surged above $90 per ounce, driven by increased industrial demand, particularly in solar energy and electric vehicles, with a projected 30% growth in global solar installations in 2026 [3] - The current gold-silver ratio is around 59, suggesting potential for silver price recovery compared to historical averages, with predictions of silver prices reaching between $95 and $100 per ounce in the near term [3] - Financial institutions forecast silver prices could rise significantly, with targets of $50 per ounce in the short term and up to $309 per ounce in the long term [3]

Core Insights - The report highlights a bullish outlook for the metals sector, driven by macroeconomic factors such as the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts and a recovering global economy, particularly in China [3][44] - Key investment themes for 2026 include expanding demand for precious metals like gold and silver, improving fundamentals for aluminum and copper, strategic opportunities in rare earths, and supply-side disruptions due to overcapacity in certain sectors [3][4] Group 1: Precious Metals - The report suggests a long-term bullish view on gold, with expectations of price increases driven by anticipated interest rate cuts and geopolitical tensions, which enhance gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset [3][44] - Silver is also highlighted as a key investment opportunity due to its high price ratio to gold, indicating potential for significant price appreciation [3] - Specific companies to watch include Shandong Gold (600547.SH) and Zijin Mining (601899.SH), which are expected to benefit from increased production and operational efficiencies [4] Group 2: Industrial Metals - The report notes that aluminum and copper are set to see improved profitability due to lower production costs and increased demand, particularly in the context of infrastructure investments [3][4] - Companies such as Zhongfu Industrial (600595.SH) and Zijin Mining (601899.SH) are identified as having strong positions in the copper market, with expected profit growth [4] - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring supply chain dynamics, particularly in copper, where inventory levels are shifting significantly [18][58] Group 3: Rare Earths and Strategic Metals - The report identifies rare earth elements as a critical area for investment, particularly in light of geopolitical tensions between the US and China, which may create opportunities for companies involved in rare earth mining and processing [3][4] - Companies like Northern Rare Earth (600111.SH) and China Rare Earth (000831.SZ) are highlighted for their potential to benefit from price increases in rare earth materials [4] Group 4: Energy Metals - The report discusses the rebound in lithium and nickel prices, driven by strong demand from the battery sector, with specific mention of companies like Tianqi Lithium (002466.SZ) and Ganfeng Lithium (002460.SZ) [4][27] - The expected growth in energy storage solutions is also noted as a significant driver for demand in these metals [4] Group 5: Overall Market Performance - The overall performance of the non-ferrous metals sector is noted to have outperformed the broader market, with a cumulative increase of 96.46% in 2025 compared to a 21.65% increase in the Shanghai Composite Index [33][35] - The report indicates that while the sector has seen significant gains, valuations are currently at historical averages, suggesting potential for further growth [35]